politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’ll win the LAB/LD/UKIP Witney battle for 2nd place in the parliament’s first CON Westminster by-election defence?
Betfair have now got up a Witney market on which party will be the winner excluding the Tories who clearly are red hot favourites to hold onto the seat that Cameron held from GE2005 until a week last Monday.
Comments
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First like the Tories.0
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Maybe the Greens will get second place.0
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The Tories will win but hard to call for second between those 30
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Witney, the home of 2nd places and lost deposits…0
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There are enough pockets of Labour friendly areas in the constituency for them to comfortably hold second in my opinion.0
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What I would add to Mike's article is the reality of the election calendar.
There are 5 weeks to the election day in Witney. But, there are just 2 weeks before the postal ballots go out on 6th October. The fact that UKIP have not yet selected a candidate 9 days after Cameron resigned, illustrates just how bad UKIP are at by elections. UKIP lost out at Eastleigh because of postal votes. They failed to be prepared early enough then even though they had months of notice that a by election was likely. At the Eastleigh by election, the Conservatives were not much better than UKIP. That said if the Conservatives select a REMAINer for Witney then UKIP could come 2nd. But today the campaign does not look good for UKIP and the LDs may get 2nd place. Labour do look vulnerable to losing 2nd place.0 -
Seventh like UkIp0
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Is this thread the right one now?0
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Has to be the sort of seat the LDs should be second in, I'd have thought, to indicate recovery - a major problem they have is they are not even in second or third in a lot of these types of seats anymore, and they need that so they can also challenge for first in a few of them (not this one, obviously, but if in second it could bode will for SW recovery).0
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Last like Owen Thingy....0
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Who?FrancisUrquhart said:Last like Owen Thingy....
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Just posted the latest betting on the header0
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Between Labour and the LibDems, I'd have thought. Probably Labour, and I think the 6/4 is value.0
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OwenScott_P said:
Who?FrancisUrquhart said:Last like Owen Thingy....
Jones,Wilson,Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.0 -
So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.
Impressive.0 -
Oops, the 6/4 has already gone.0
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16/1 2nd place CONs? Surely way too short??0
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Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.0
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If you like pennies/bulldozers 2% ain't bad0
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Did he ever do anything I might have seen?FrancisUrquhart said:Owen
Jones,Wilson,Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.0 -
[Input snarky comment about not achieving anything in that time and being wrong about everything here]TheScreamingEagles said:So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.
Impressive.
That'll save some time. But in all seriousness, given many MPs will see frontbench roles as a major goal (not all, obviously), proportionally his amount of time in those roles in very efficient.0 -
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?0 -
http://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll-sept-21-n651871
NBC poll of what issues most concern voters. top 4:
Trump comments about women,immigrants and Muslims
Trump's not having a presidential temperament
Clinton's use of private email server while sec. of state
Clinton's judgement dealing with Syria,Iraq and Libya
Hillary health concern comes bottom (only 44% of voters concerned about it)0 -
He was lucky in that Michael Howard, who was a real fan of David Cameron, became leader when he did in 2003 and appointed Dave rapidly, though people forget his first choice was George Osborne to succeed him in 2005.kle4 said:
[Input snarky comment about not achieving anything in that time and being wrong about everything here]TheScreamingEagles said:So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.
Impressive.
That'll save some time. But in all seriousness, given many MPs will see frontbench roles as a major goal (not all, obviously), proportionally his amount of time in those roles in very efficient.0 -
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Apparently he has a 29 inch cock, so probably only in something suitable for after the watershed.Scott_P said:
Did he ever do anything I might have seen?FrancisUrquhart said:Owen
Jones,Wilson,Farrell...erhhh you know Thingy.0 -
I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here. Their local by-elections record is formidable at the moment, but it wasn't shabby when the previous parliamentary by-elections happened. And yet they didn't recover from similar %s as they are on in Witney.
It seems people are forgetting Labour weren't just 2nd last time, but 2nd by a good 10%. The LDs barely held their deposit. If they can work their magic like in wards recently then they will come second, but Labour really just need to stay on 15-20% and they'll probably come second. They've picked the same candidate, and will probably put some decent resource into the fight (Corbyn needs this as much as Farron, if not more).
Anything over evens is probably value on Labour, in the absence of polling to the contrary.0 -
Off topic, for all you epigones:
Why is Nate Silver on his high horse over Trump – again?
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Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by six points among likely voters heading into the first presidential debate on Monday, according to a brand-new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The survey - which was conducted after Clinton's return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia - shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n6521410 -
nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 90 -
Hopefully you didn't type that one-handed?TheScreamingEagles said:So David Cameron was an MP for fifteen years, of which he was leader for nearly eleven years, and a frontbencher for thirteen of those years.
Impressive.
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Bizarre. Not concerned about them both being crooked in their different ways. Shows how low their expectations of politicians are.Ishmael_X said:http://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-wall-street-journal-poll-sept-21-n651871
NBC poll of what issues most concern voters. top 4:
Trump comments about women,immigrants and Muslims
Trump's not having a presidential temperament
Clinton's use of private email server while sec. of state
Clinton's judgement dealing with Syria,Iraq and Libya
Hillary health concern comes bottom (only 44% of voters concerned about it)0 -
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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I think it is because the worthy citizens of Witney don't seem to be a natural fit for the Corbyn revolution, so, faute de mieux, if they don't vote Conservative, it will have to be the LibDems, who do have some strength locally. I agree that Labour should be favourites to come 2nd, though.Quincel said:I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here.
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A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!0 -
I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it is because the worthy citizens of Witney don't seem to be a natural fit for the Corbyn revolution, so, faute de mieux, if they don't vote Conservative, it will have to be the LibDems, who do have some strength locally. I agree that Labour should be favourites, though.Quincel said:I don't really get why the Lib Dems are so strong in second place betting here.
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I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?0 -
He's also the only party to leader to lose a EU referendum in the last 40 yearsTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
Just sayin... 0 -
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!0 -
Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturersJosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!0 -
@TelePolitics: David Cameron's successor as Witney MP must back legalising fox hunting, says local party telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/2…0
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Key issue of the day, obviously, but hey, if that's what chimes with local voters.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron's successor as Witney MP must back legalising fox hunting, says local party telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/2…
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Maybe they will approach it in the same way as their phones. Buy up a whole batch, extract all the good bits and put them in a shiny new case.Scott_P said:
Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturersJosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
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Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.Essexit said:
I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?0 -
A computer manufacturer going into transport... Clive Sinclair was ahead of his time.Scott_P said:
Apparently not. They had talks. Apple now talking to other car manufacturersJosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
In all seriousness it's sad that the era of British computing in the 80s got killed off.0 -
more from that nbc poll
in a 2 way, hillary leads by 7
clinton leads with educated whites by 6
with women by 17
by over 90 wirh african americans and 60 with hispanics
more people see donald as honest by 10
more people see hilary as presidental by 30
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Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'0
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Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?Quincel said:I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.
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Shaun Woodward was originally a Tory wot defected to LabourTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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Whatever wins. In the 6 years we've been in power countless policies have been enacted and we've had a vote to leave the EU delivered by a Tory PM. I don't understand the issue. If Dave hadn't delivered the majority then we'd never have even had a vote let alone be leaving the EU.Essexit said:
I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?0 -
The general mid-term reason/excuse of wanting to pressure the government more to the side you want? You're probably right though, and we seem to basically agree anyway.Richard_Nabavi said:
Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?Quincel said:I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.
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Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
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Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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A quick google seems to indicate it is about making sure there is not a single official feminist type view, in particular recognising people have other characteristics and experiences which mean a white middle class feminist viewpoint may not accord completely with a working class black feminist viewpoint.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
I think that means its about, when discussing feminist issues, to take account of other 'isms' that might also be in play like racism and classism.0 -
Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.kle4 said:
Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.Essexit said:
I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.0 -
Appreciating that women who are disadvantaged in other ways require specific or simply stronger attempts to support them. So black women suffer from racism differently to black men, and sexism differently to white women.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
Or it's nonsense, your pick. But that's what he meant.0 -
Things like racism, Islamphobia, homophobia, misogyny etc are all interlinked.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
So if you tackle one, you're tacking all of them, because if you're likely to be a misogynist, you're likely to hate not only women, but blacks, Muslims, and gays.
The things you learn from the protesters in the centre of Manchester0 -
Just all round not a good egg?TheScreamingEagles said:
Things like racism, Islamphobia, homophobia, misogyny etc are all interlinked.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
So if you tackle one, you're tacking all of them, because if you're likely to be a misogynist, you're likely to hate not only women, but blacks, Muslims, and gays.
The things you learn from the protesters in the centre of Manchester0 -
"The view that women experience oppression in varying configurations and in varying degrees of intensity. Cultural patterns of oppression are not only interrelated, but are bound together and influenced by the intersectional systems of society. Examples of this include race, gender, class, ability, and ethnicity.”FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately I need a translation to English. What is intersectional Feminism?HYUFD said:BBC News interviewing Corbyn and Corbyn supporters at one of his campaign phonebanks. His supporters were asked what the first priority should be for his leadership if he is re-elected, one of the first responses was 'Intersectional Feminism!'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10572435/Intersectional-feminism.-What-the-hell-is-it-And-why-you-should-care.html
Clearly some Corbynites are now on a different planet from many of the traditional white working class Labour vote!0 -
The new caring style of politics
Labour MPs hire BODYGUARDS to protect them from hard-left disciples of Jeremy Corbyn as voting ends in the party's angry leadership contest
Moderate Labour MPs opposed to Jeremy Corbyn have hired bodyguards to keep them safe from aggressive hard-left activists at conference, it emerged today.As Labour's angry and divisive leadership election drew to a close with the end of voting at noon, opponents of Mr Corbyn were coming to terms with his widely expected second victory.
MPs who spoke out against Mr Corbyn for being incompetent and divisive have revealed campaigns of harassment against them repeatedly since the contest between Mr Corbyn and Owen Smith began earlier this summer.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3799790/Labour-MPs-hire-BODYGUARDS-protect-hard-left-disciples-Jeremy-Corbyn-voting-ends-party-s-angry-leadership-contest.html#ixzz4Kvb8O2lS0 -
I happen to think the left-right spectrum is largely nonsense and its about tribal branding - plenty of people who think of themselves as right or left wing will in actuality support ideas which are espoused by the other side, until they find out who is behind it - and its Corbyn's incompetence more than the leftness of his policies I think is the issue. If he gets his act together and Labour, in fear of a split, pull together, they have a chance even then, if not a great one. So yes, maybe a right wing leader who was good could have done what Cameron did, although the right wingedness or not would likely not have anything to do with it - some people think Cameron was really right wing, but just came across as centrish, while others think he was a LD.Essexit said:
Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.kle4 said:
Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.Essexit said:
I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.0 -
Cameron was so great he scared off the incumbent before he even stood.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
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Witney town is not especially nice but is quite small. There and Chipping Norton town are where Lab has some strength. Most of the population lives in small towns and villages. There is a lot of money in the part of the seat in the Cotswolds (e.g. the Chipping Norton set). Woodstock is also very nice. Generally this seat would be far too prosperous for UKIP to do well.Richard_Nabavi said:
Rural shires aren't necessarily Kipperesque, especially not Oxfordshire shires. Theresa May is still in her honeymoon, she's delivering Brexit, she's sounding tough on immigration. And she's not David Cameron, which in the short term is an advantage. Why would people who didn't vote UKIP in 2015 do so now?Quincel said:I won't deny that I don't know Witney particularly, but were the LDs not much better campaigners I'd see the seat as more Kipper friendly than LD. Isn't it rural shires stuff, where voters resent the metropolitan Tories pulling the party to the centre? I note that in the 7 neighbouring constituencies the LD vs UKIP 'fight' went 4-3 in the LDs favour, if that means anything.
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isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help0 -
The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.0 -
I can only imagine what the dealerships will be like....Philip_Thompson said:
The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.0 -
I remember when Apple dropped the floppy disc and cds from their machines, everyone else followed their lead, eventually.Philip_Thompson said:
The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.
But you've given me an idea for Sunday's thread.
George Osborne = Steve Jobs
Theresa May = John Sculley0 -
wsj: preference to be in charge of nuclear weopens
clinton 51
trump 250 -
Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/0 -
Trend in favour of Trump now seems clearly to be in reverse. Can't help wondering if he is so marmite that any kind of threatened lead will push people to Hillary, no matter how reluctantly.0
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Angela Ahrendts will have something to do. I'm intrigued by how low profile she's been since Apple hired her for megabucks.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can only imagine what the dealerships will be like....Philip_Thompson said:
The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.0 -
The guys who got hold on North Korea Official OS and broke it down, it was fascinating what they had got up to.Moses_ said:Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/0 -
In the local elections in West Oxon this May the vote shares were
Con 46%
Lab 26%
LD 16%
Green 8%
UKIP 3%
Ind 2%
Not all wards voted and allowing that these are the more rural the estimated share overall would be
Con 49%
Lab 21%
LD 18%
Green 7%
UKIP 4%
Ind 1%
0 -
Agreed. And the polling a few days ago (the one where 5% described Corbyn as right wing) showed that a lot of voters aren't ideological one way or the other - presumably they'd back someone largely on grounds of leadership and/or conviction. Arguably this is how Maggie won (helped enormously by a terrible opposition, granted).kle4 said:
I happen to think the left-right spectrum is largely nonsense and its about tribal branding - plenty of people who think of themselves as right or left wing will in actuality support ideas which are espoused by the other side, until they find out who is behind it - and its Corbyn's incompetence more than the leftness of his policies I think is the issue. If he gets his act together and Labour, in fear of a split, pull together, they have a chance even then, if not a great one. So yes, maybe a right wing leader who was good could have done what Cameron did, although the right wingedness or not would likely not have anything to do with it - some people think Cameron was really right wing, but just came across as centrish, while others think he was a LD.Essexit said:
Maybe, maybe not. Politics isn't a Hotelling model-esque left-right spectrum, or at least it's not just that. Someone advocating more right-wing policies and selling them well might have done better than Cameron, who often sounded like he was just saying whatever he thought voters wanted to hear.kle4 said:
Pre-Corbyn they were probably right it was the only way to win.Essexit said:
I'm not in the Tory party, though I'm sure many on the 'moronic' wing thereof would share my view. It does alarm me that the Tories felt the only way they could win was under a rather weak tea type who barely deviated from Blair in several significant areas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh God, the Corbynism virus has now infected the moronic elements of the Tory party too.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
Doesn't it alarm you that in the last 24 years the only Tory leader to have won a majority or even a general election is a Lib Dem in your eyes?
In all seriousness though my original comment was slightly tongue-in-cheek and I accept that Cameron was an improvement on, say, Brown or Miliband.
A good right-wing leader certainly could have done what Cameron did, which after all, wasn't that much when you look at it: Brown and Miliband were both uninspiring leaders, against one he didn't get a majority at all, against the other he only barely did.0 -
They Certainly don't like Park Geun Hye.
Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-00080 -
I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.619 said:
isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf0 -
its looks like from that wsj poll ( 69% of people dislike trumps talking about immigration and people preferring clinton to deal with immigration by 51-25) is that trumps comments about refugees is backfiring massively0
-
i dont thinl rcp has allowed for this poll. i expect this to change rcp tomorrowHYUFD said:
I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.619 said:
isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf0 -
The Reuters is a tracking poll with a significant lag, it hasn't fully caught the effect of the Clinton Collapse yet, so Trump could well pull ahead in that going forward.HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
No, It is now included in the RCP average that gives the Clinton lead of 1.9%619 said:
i dont thinl rcp has allowed for this poll. i expect this to change rcp tomorrowHYUFD said:
I think nbc leans slightly Democrat eg today's RCP has Hillary ahead by 1.9% in a 2-way race but we shall see.619 said:
isnt the nbc news poll A+ with 538 though?HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
also interesting is that trump is doing worse with non educated whites than romney (+18 vs +24) and a lot worse with educated whites (clinton on +6 compared with romneys +8)
The thing most voters hate is what he says about immigrants and women (69% of voters). This wont help
Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html0 -
Dark, dark days for the Liberal Left
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/21/rejoice-the-liberal-left-that-once-ruled-over-britain-is-now-bei/0 -
I'm dubious on this NBC poll due to the stonkingly approval rating for Obama. He's been polling well but not +12 well recently.0
-
Apart from that, though, they are fine standard-bearers for the two great American political parties...HYUFD said:...Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist...
0 -
West Oxfordshire voted Remain, so on that basis should probably be a LD and Labour battle for secondMarkSenior said:In the local elections in West Oxon this May the vote shares were
Con 46%
Lab 26%
LD 16%
Green 8%
UKIP 3%
Ind 2%
Not all wards voted and allowing that these are the more rural the estimated share overall would be
Con 49%
Lab 21%
LD 18%
Green 7%
UKIP 4%
Ind 1%0 -
You could design a racetrack suitable for square wheels - would make overtaking tricky though as it would require special lanes.Philip_Thompson said:
The wheels will be propietary oval shaped wheels that you can't get elsewhere and the in-car radio will be removed but you'll be able to get £160 headphones instead.FrancisUrquhart said:
The next model they release after buying them, they will be removing the round wheels and replace them with square ones....JosiasJessop said:A nightmare story for me:
Apple to buy McLaren?
http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/21/apple-mclaren-acquisition-talks/
NNNNNNOOOOOOOO!
TSE will call it the greatest thing since George Osborne.0 -
There has been a trend observed that in polls that aak "who do you think will win" the higher the percentage who think Hillary will win the higher the third party vote.DavidL said:Trend in favour of Trump now seems clearly to be in reverse. Can't help wondering if he is so marmite that any kind of threatened lead will push people to Hillary, no matter how reluctantly.
0 -
Newsnight taking a look at the economy post the referendum vote. Manage to find people all forecasting a decline in growth rate.
In the studio we then have 3 people, 1 (Heath) "over egged by REMAIN", Yeuh "creates economic uncertainty" and quotes Bank of England and Chris Giles at europhile FT says it will be bad after conceding in short term they got it wrong. 2 v1 for REMAIN........ Usual BBC loading the panel.0 -
Does anybody still watchTCPoliticalBetting said:Newsnight taking a look at the economy post the referendum vote. Manage to find people all forecasting a decline in growth rate.
In the studio we then have 3 people, 1 (Heath) "over egged by REMAIN", Yeuh "creates economic uncertainty and quotes Bank of England and Chris Giles at europhile FT says it will be bad after conceding in short term they got it wrong. 2 v1 for REMAIN........ Usual BBC loading the panel.Guardian TVNewsnight?0 -
I may have to start describing people as 'less than a worm' and telling them that they're 'a blind fool without elementary capacity to judge the situation' and that they're going to be unable to stop their 'poor destiny going to the final ruin'.Moses_ said:They Certainly don't like Park Geun Hye.
Hysterics of Chongwadae Idiot
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2016-09-21-0008
That should make my meetings far more interesting.
0 -
I have a horrible feeling NK's "minister for internet" might be meeting a grisly end as we speak...Moses_ said:Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/0 -
He certainly doesn't want to walk in front of any anti-aircraft guns anytime soon...GIN1138 said:
I have a horrible feeling NK's "minister for internet" might be meeting a grisly end as we speak...Moses_ said:Interesting......N.Korea internet accidentally discovered by engineer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-37426725
http://rodong.rep.kp./en/0 -
Speaking of which.DavidL said:
Is that the brother of the former American President ?Quincel said:
Yes, Dave beat a 'Michael Bartlet'. Who possibly moved to St Albans and began failing to win local elections, judging by a quick Google of his name. Or it's someone else.MaxPB said:
Dave didn't beat Woodward did he? Thought he made a beeline for a safe Labour seat after his detection.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, Dave's predecessor in Witney was a Labour MP, a sign of Dave's awesomeness, he turned a Labour held seat into a massive Tory majorityMaxPB said:
This truly is a blue rosette on a donkey constituency.Essexit said:Why are people so sure about the Tories winning this? Witney's had a Lib Dem MP since 2001.
https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/7786765944957296650 -
Is Heath responsible for the map, which shows Gibraltar voting Leave?GIN1138 said:Dark, dark days for the Liberal Left
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/21/rejoice-the-liberal-left-that-once-ruled-over-britain-is-now-bei/0 -
LA Times and Yougov are all reasonably recent, the RCP average is about right ie Hillary is ahead by a little over 1%Alistair said:
The Reuters is a tracking poll with a significant lag, it hasn't fully caught the effect of the Clinton Collapse yet, so Trump could well pull ahead in that going forward.HYUFD said:
Though Reuters today has Hillary and Trump on 39% each nationally in a 2-way fight, Yougov has Hillary leading Trump by 45% to 44% and the LA Times has Trump ahead 46% to 42%619 said:nbc news poll
nationwide
clinton 43
trump 37
johnson 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.20_.16_.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcgy71ddez/econToplines.pdf
http://www.latimes.com/politics/0 -
It is really the dog turd or the cat poo election for many Americans now!Richard_Nabavi said:
Apart from that, though, they are fine standard-bearers for the two great American political parties...HYUFD said:...Yougov meanwhile has 35% of Americans believing Hillary is evil, 50% corrupt and 44% dangerous, 35% also think Trump is evil, 51% think Trump is crazy, 48% think he is bigoted and 51% think he is racist...
0
