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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical lo
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical look at the numbers
I’m only a few years younger than Neil Kinnock so when he tells John Pienaar on Panorama he fears that he may never see another Labour government in his lifetime it’s an “ouch” moment for me.
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Texas @ 20-1 is a good bet here as it is first on the list so doubles up as a straight state bet.
You can even combine it with the 1-12 on Texas with Paddy Power for a guaranteed profit.
Montana is a HORRIBLE bet at 16-1, if Montana goes - so most likely does Texas methinks and the population is less hispanic.
Georgia at 7-1 might be worth consideration, though if GA goes then Texas could be in trouble.
Arizona looks terrible at 7-1, seeing as GA is above it in the list and these two states are fairly close in terms of how they might go.
From here on down you're up against Arizona going to Hillary, which makes Iowa, Ohio unappealing at the odds.
North Carolina might be OK at 12-1 but you're up against a narrow path with all the above states working against.
New Jersey at 33-1 might be worth a poke looking further down the list if you expect a Trump landslide...
I've gone for £5 Texas @ 20-1.
Republicans are now favored to hold the Senate in our inaugural 2016 Senate race ratings https://t.co/IVwuO9XEik https://t.co/LL70xCXmJ4
If Trump wants to win Florida, he should probably get some of the campaign money to them to help with GOTV
However, interesting piece too. The question is how far the new membership shares the aims, views and values of Momentum, and is prepared to work with them.
Rather the same small number of Trots touring the country causing trouble for local Labour parties.
He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.
Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.
"We will defeat Corbyn in the end but another will spring up if you don't defeat the ideology."
- Tony Blair
Ok, he actually said "Isis" not "Corbyn". But the principle...
I also think Don's right that lower turnout will damage Smith. I know several ABC voters who didn't actually think that Smith would be a better leader, so they're not voting at all. In a couple of cases, he's actually turned them into Corbyn voters by being "too aggressive, doesn't have his own positive profile".
Amusingly, the Skittles marketing team put out a statement;
"the company doesn't believe the comparison is appropriate."
Before adding;
"Our brand image is now completely f*cked"
"Polling research shows that Allen is part of a generational divergence from the overwhelming black loyalty to the Democratic party, which is not shared by millennials. Compared to older black Americans, millennials are more likely to see Clinton as not trustworthy in general, or not progressive enough on issues like decreasing the cost and debt load of a college education or reducing racial bias in policing and incarceration. Others are broadly cynical about the possibility for political change.
And then there’s a generational shift in party loyalty across the board. Like 48 percent of millennials, Allen considers himself a political independent, compared to 35 percent of Baby Boomers.
It's not how much you've got but what you do with it, as they say...
David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.
Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.
The Marxists seem to hate Trots!
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37405447
I guess we should all be betting on a clear Hofer victory then
Montana Clinton 13.2%
Georgia Clinton 21.5%
Arizona Clinton 26.6%
Iowa Clinton 35.0%
Ohio Clinton 41.9%
North Carolina Clinton 44.9%
Florida Clinton 46.5%
Nevada Clinton 48.8%
New Hampshire Clinton 62.4%
Colorado Clinton 63.2%
Pennsylvania 69.7%
Michigan 69.4%
Virginia 75.0%
New Mexico 77.6%
New Jersey 86.3%
Maryland 99.6%
Are the 538 %s, so with a 48.8% -> 62.4% gap (And also being around the midpoint) New Hampshire does indeed look an OK bet.
I expected more than a handful of posts for both.
edit
"Dispatches was billed as a piece of hard-hitting investigative journalism. Instead, the episode’s highlights included an undercover reporter “secretly” filming a public meeting and allegations that the group had breached some data protection rules. The latter is not unimportant but unfortunately it is common among political parties. That doesn’t make it OK but I’m afraid it doesn’t rank as a shocking revelation."
http://labourlist.org/2016/09/little-controversy-and-even-less-communism-tv-expose-of-momentum-was-only-remarkable-for-being-ordinary/v
TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.
Why do you use the persist in using the term "Trots"? From the link I posted:
Trotskyism is a thoroughly counter-revolutionary trend marked by double-speak and cynical hypocrisy. It practises sectarianism and factionalism while calling for unity; it supports imperialist wars against the oppressed while mouthing phrases about anti-imperialism; it facilitates attacks on the working class through its cretinous support for the Labour party, while pretending to oppose such attacks; it supports counter-revolutions everywhere in the name of defending revolution.
Right in essence and left in form is the best way of describing this malicious tendency, which everywhere sows confusion and division in the working-class movement, making us weaker to defend ourselves against the onslaught of imperialism.
If we wish to liberate our world from imperialist exploitation and oppression, we must first rid our movement of all pro-imperialist, social-democratic ideology, not least the r-r-revolutionary garbage of Trotskyism.
The LA times & surveymonkey polls have spooked me.
Perhaps if the sugar is free, they charge more for the rest of it.
I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.
Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?
Well yes, STV in multimember constituencies, it gives the voter a chance to rank their chosen party's candidates or even split their choices between parties.
If people have been thinking Trump has this locked up due to the LA Times tracker then that is very hasty thinking.
Great article from last year from Rod Liddle re Trump
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/will-donald-trump-last-laugh/
Today's cartoon from Morten Morland https://t.co/pcLOwpXUUo
Only thing is that Expedia doesn't seem to include every flight from small airlines - I found a perfectly good Wizzair flight to Budapest earlier this year that they didn't include at all.
Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.
Given that they both stood on an identical policy platform (previously seen as being at the party's extreme) and that Smith didn't quite live up to the big-hitting gaffe-free competent leaderissimo that was billed, a big NOTO isn't surprising?
1) Momentum
2) Those who haven't quit the party yet.
I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.
Look at this, for example:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/u-k-told-it-has-zero-chance-of-having-brexit-cake-and-eating-it
While a final deal has to be approved by a qualified majority comprising of 72 percent of the remaining members and 65 percent of the EU population, any member can veto the process while granting the negotiating mandate, a process that will be updated by the bloc’s leaders, Prouza said.
What does that mean?
Article 50 clearly talks about a qualified majority, and I believe that pure trade deals can also be agreed by qualified majority. However, any deal which strays into areas not strictly about trade may need unanimous agreement.
I think that the answer to this question will determine whether or not we end up with a very hard and bumpy Brexit.
I have two thoughts:
1) Surely the deal won't go to a vote in the Commons until the end of the process - ie deal can't go to a vote until deal is completely negotiated. Which would be early 2019 (ie just under two years after Article 50, assuming that's done say April 2017).
2) Surely deal would likely pass Commons given support of DUP / UUP / Carswell and almost certainly about 10 Lab MPs (ie Stuart, Howey, Field etc would vote for it). That would mean about 30 Con rebels would be required to defeat it.
Would 30 Con MPs really vote against - in the knowledge that if the vote was lost we might well end up not leaving the EU at all?
Also worth noting that while individual member states don't have a veto on the deal, the European Parliament does.
Betfair punters obviously don't take the LA times poll seriously, but the direction of travel is still a useful data point. Interestingly, punters also discount Trump's 538 win probability by 10 percentage points (or ~25%). I think it's likely this *arb* will hold right until November the 8th.
If Clinton does win, it'll be at short odds.
If Trump wins, he'll be value right until the very end.
We trigger Article 50 - irreversible exit
We negotiate for 2 years on exit conditions
Then
We hold a referendum on whether to accept this negotiated position or
??? Ask to rejoin the EU under new conditions?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
I'm still very proud of this closer
Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
ironically, seems the tories are more tolerant at this point in time...