politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just how strong is Momentum? Don Brind takes a sceptical lo

FPT:

Texas @ 20-1 is a good bet here as it is first on the list so doubles up as a straight state bet.
You can even combine it with the 1-12 on Texas with Paddy Power for a guaranteed profit.

Montana is a HORRIBLE bet at 16-1, if Montana goes - so most likely does Texas methinks and the population is less hispanic.

Georgia at 7-1 might be worth consideration, though if GA goes then Texas could be in trouble.
Arizona looks terrible at 7-1, seeing as GA is above it in the list and these two states are fairly close in terms of how they might go.

From here on down you're up against Arizona going to Hillary, which makes Iowa, Ohio unappealing at the odds.

North Carolina might be OK at 12-1 but you're up against a narrow path with all the above states working against.

New Jersey at 33-1 might be worth a poke looking further down the list if you expect a Trump landslide...

I've gone for £5 Texas @ 20-1.

Third like argclu

Interesting final paragraph from Don, effectively conceding the race. I note that voting closes tomorrow.

However, interesting piece too. The question is how far the new membership shares the aims, views and values of Momentum, and is prepared to work with them.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-millennials-arent-united-behind-clinton-like-their-elders/

FPT:

MTimT said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Ladbrokes Clinton Firewall finder looks like a very interesting market.

Let's assume that Trump wins. (As it happens, I think he will, and have bet accordingly. This view is obviously subject to change.) And let us assume it is by a narrow margin, and that his "Great Lakes" strategy is a success.

So: that eliminates Texas, Montana, Georgia and Arizona as they should all be easy Republican wins.

I suspect, if Trump wins, then he gets Iowa and Ohio.

So, that leaves North Carolina (I'd reckon Trump takes that in a narrow win scenario), Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. All of these could be lost by Hillary; not a certain, but could. Maybe £10 on each of these, and on Colorado and Pennsylvania (20-1).

The one that tempts me on a Trump wins/virtual tie scenario is New Hampshire. If Hillary wins any above that Trump has not won or even come that close.

I agree; I just can't see NH being a big fan of Trump, and it's economy has been doing pretty well.

Personally, I don't see NH going Trump. Any of the 16 other candidates, and it would be in the GOP column. So to me, Colorado or even Wisconsin are key, with PA being the one with the potential for a yuuuge surprise on the night (lots of redneck areas, so it depends on low turnout in Philly).

12-1 for New Hampshire to be the first Democratic state on the Ladbrokes list (https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/), seems like a no-brainer. It pays out in around a third to a half of Trump win scenarios, I'd reckon, and even in some Hillary ones. 12-1 is too skinny. Get on it.

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

I tend to agree with Don on this. I joined Momentum when it was set up. They occasionally send me an email when this or that is happening, but they don't give a hyperactive impression. To some extent they're a convenient straw man for both sides - the unstoppable wave or the sinister infiltrators, rather than just another pressure group.18,000 is about 3% of the party membership.

I also think Don's right that lower turnout will damage Smith. I know several ABC voters who didn't actually think that Smith would be a better leader, so they're not voting at all. In a couple of cases, he's actually turned them into Corbyn voters by being "too aggressive, doesn't have his own positive profile".

https://twitter.com/JeremeyCorbyn/status/777846896018817024

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

"We're aaaaaaaaaaaallllllllll LEFT! We're aaaaaaaaaaaallllllllll LEFT!"

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

IanB2 said:

Third like argclu

Oh, forgot to mention, I inadvertently strayed into Angela Eagle territory on Friday afternoon - I did the West Kirby and New Brighton branches of Merseyrail for the first time

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

Well you learn something new everyday...

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

The polls haven't closed yet

As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

The Beeb positing that newly eligible voters (youngsters just turned 16) could prevent Hofer from winning the Austrian Presidential election re-run:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37405447

I guess we should all be betting on a clear Hofer victory then

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

MTimT said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Ladbrokes Clinton Firewall finder looks like a very interesting market.

Let's assume that Trump wins. (As it happens, I think he will, and have bet accordingly. This view is obviously subject to change.) And let us assume it is by a narrow margin, and that his "Great Lakes" strategy is a success.

So: that eliminates Texas, Montana, Georgia and Arizona as they should all be easy Republican wins.

I suspect, if Trump wins, then he gets Iowa and Ohio.

So, that leaves North Carolina (I'd reckon Trump takes that in a narrow win scenario), Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire. All of these could be lost by Hillary; not a certain, but could. Maybe £10 on each of these, and on Colorado and Pennsylvania (20-1).

The one that tempts me on a Trump wins/virtual tie scenario is New Hampshire. If Hillary wins any above that Trump has not won or even come that close.

I agree; I just can't see NH being a big fan of Trump, and it's economy has been doing pretty well.

Personally, I don't see NH going Trump. Any of the 16 other candidates, and it would be in the GOP column. So to me, Colorado or even Wisconsin are key, with PA being the one with the potential for a yuuuge surprise on the night (lots of redneck areas, so it depends on low turnout in Philly).

12-1 for New Hampshire to be the first Democratic state on the Ladbrokes list (https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/american/presidential-election/2016-presidential-election-winner/216136503/), seems like a no-brainer. It pays out in around a third to a half of Trump win scenarios, I'd reckon, and even in some Hillary ones. 12-1 is too skinny. Get on it.

Thanks. I am not sure it's legal for me to bet.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

But Dave lost a EU referendum.... just saying!

TheScreamingEagles said:

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Mind you, he never proposed anything as LibDem-esque as Theresa May's proposals for worker representation on boards, executive pay restraint, and linking the charitable status of public schools to assisting public-sector education.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

I think May needs to call on the Notting Hill reformers sooner rather than later. Her education reforms are a classic example of outmoded thinking which is undoing the work of Gove, backing away from prison and young offender reforms is also troubling.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89

From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...

Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

I expected more than a handful of posts for both.

They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.

Dave,

Why do you use the persist in using the term "Trots"? From the link I posted:

Trotskyism is a thoroughly counter-revolutionary trend marked by double-speak and cynical hypocrisy. It practises sectarianism and factionalism while calling for unity; it supports imperialist wars against the oppressed while mouthing phrases about anti-imperialism; it facilitates attacks on the working class through its cretinous support for the Labour party, while pretending to oppose such attacks; it supports counter-revolutions everywhere in the name of defending revolution.

Right in essence and left in form is the best way of describing this malicious tendency, which everywhere sows confusion and division in the working-class movement, making us weaker to defend ourselves against the onslaught of imperialism.

If we wish to liberate our world from imperialist exploitation and oppression, we must first rid our movement of all pro-imperialist, social-democratic ideology, not least the r-r-revolutionary garbage of Trotskyism.

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting article from Don. However, size isn't everything, as Owen Smith might say, and the flying trots of Momentum can have a much bigger impact than their numbers would suggest. They are well organised, they know all about infiltration, and, most importantly of all, they have their agents in place at the very top of the party.

Are you sure they're Trots and not Marxists?

The Marxists seem to hate Trots!

http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=leaflets&subName=display&leafletId=89

From Dispatches programme, it seemed to be that they encouraged all left wing nutters to stop the hate between them...Trot and proud...

Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

I expected more than a handful of posts for both.

They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.

Agree. As widely trailed in advance, Kinnock's prediction of a long walk in the wilderness was about as newsworthy as it got.

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

Fructose vs sucrose?

williamglenn said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.

Perhaps if the sugar is free, they charge more for the rest of it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

PlatoSaid said:

Was it the damp squib noted here? Ditto Panorama?

I expected more than a handful of posts for both.

They were both total busts. Clearly Dispatches had spent a fair bit of time and money setting up an undercover sting and all they got were the well know Trots spouting their crap and the Maomentumers acting like they weren't Maomentum just Jezza for Leader (when we all know Jezza for Leader = Maomentum).

TBH if I was in charge of Dispatches I would have just shelved the programme.

It's a pity that (as we all take for granted) undercover investigaitons are always designed to reveal a certain conclusion, and if they don't then the consequence is either to put it out anyway as pseduo-proof without much evidence or to shelve it. An undercover investigation designed to see whether or not Momentum was a major threat to sitting MPs might have led to a genuinely interesting conclusion that it wasn't (as Don has done here), which would have been a bit awkward for both sides but more interestintg than feebly attempting to sustain the expected "sinister conspiracy poised to sweep to victory" theory.

williamglenn said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.

I wonder what they serve at Trots Tots breakfast clubs?

FrancisUrquhart said:

PB Brain Trust.

I need to book some flights, but it seems like Skyscanner and Momondo now have become riddled with dodgy 3rd party ticket agents who all have reputation for classic bait and switch pricing to get them to show up in the results.

Is there a price comparison site which only shows pricing from reputable sellers or where I can filter them out? And, these days is there any saving to be had versus just using Expedia / Opodo / going direct?

Expedia, or the airline websites direct now mostly offer to beat any web offers for their flights. Use comparison sites to identify routes and schedules, but book with the airline directly.

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

only the nutters join parties these days

The party selectorate do seem to be more extreme than their voters. Any way round that?
Well yes, STV in multimember constituencies, it gives the voter a chance to rank their chosen party's candidates or even split their choices between parties.

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

Fructose vs sucrose?

I'm not making this up, but there is a sugar known as Fucose - just be careful how you pronounce it

Sunil_Prasannan said:

PlatoSaid said:

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

True, but Corbyn strikes me as the type who believes grape molasses is better for you than cane sugar.

Or corn syrup.

Corn syrup = evil Yankee Imperialism

certaintly a product of subsidies and nothing whatsoever to do with "free markets"

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

SimonStClare said:

So much for enlightenment, I was hoping to find out which was Jeremy’s favourite biscuit…

Sugar free shortbread is my understanding of it!

I have to say I am surprised it wasn't a hemp protein cookie...I would love to know how he makes all that jam given he is a so strongly anti-sugar.

St Dalfour use grape molasses, it's why their strawberry jam is so bloody tasty.

But grape molasses is still sugar. Perhaps he is using stevia.

I've seen plenty of hotel breakfast buffets claiming to have 'sugar free' jam. God Corbyn knows how they make it.

I wonder what they serve at Trots Tots breakfast clubs?

M and Ms?

As an organisation Momentum preaches openness, transparency and democracy. Funnily enough, though, its leadership is unelected and unaccountable. That Corbyn has thrown his hat in with them is, therefore, no huge surprise.

Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.

I use kayak when booking flights. It seems very comprehensive.

ThreeQuidder said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

Rather depressing that Brind - who has hidden his personal interest whilst repeatedly trying to spin Smith's chances here - is, now that polls have closed, trying rather obviously to recover a shred of credibility.

The polls haven't closed yet

As good as, given that Brind's effective concession is hardly going to affect anyone now. The number of people yet to complete their ballots who will actually get them back in time must be miniscule. The number who will first drop by PB to see if Mr Brind is still spinning his improbable yarn even fewer.

How many votes do you think were swung by his articles?

I doubt if any of us ever persuade anyone here. But we probably do influence betting, which is why it's important to disclose interests and be careful with one's assertions. I ran into flak here last year for (truthfully) saying early in the campaign that I expected to win and then not correcting it later when I had privately changed my mind to become more pessimistic. I don't really think it's realistic to expect people in the middle of campaigns to dismiss their chances (people can expect you not to make stuff up, but not to say everything you might think), but transparency about where one's coming from is of course helpful.

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

only the nutters join parties these days

How very dare you madam!

I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.

TSE = LibDem

I'm confused on the question of whether Article 50 negotiations, and negotiating an EU-UK trade deal (which are theoretically separate), will require unanimous agreement from the EU27 or can be agreed by qualified majority. I suspect I'm not the only one, but it's clearly a very important question.

Look at this, for example:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/u-k-told-it-has-zero-chance-of-having-brexit-cake-and-eating-it

While a final deal has to be approved by a qualified majority comprising of 72 percent of the remaining members and 65 percent of the EU population, any member can veto the process while granting the negotiating mandate, a process that will be updated by the bloc’s leaders, Prouza said.

What does that mean?

Article 50 clearly talks about a qualified majority, and I believe that pure trade deals can also be agreed by qualified majority. However, any deal which strays into areas not strictly about trade may need unanimous agreement.

I think that the answer to this question will determine whether or not we end up with a very hard and bumpy Brexit.

TGOHF said:

Labour has split into 2 groups

1) Momentum
2) Those who haven't quit the party yet.

3 groups when you include Andy Burnham...

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

only the nutters join parties these days

How very dare you madam!

I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.

if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity

Richard_Nabavi said:

I'm confused on the question of whether Article 50 negotiations, and negotiating an EU-UK trade deal (which are theoretically separate), will require unanimous agreement from the EU27 or can be agreed by qualified majority. I suspect I'm not the only one, but it's clearly a very important question.

Look at this, for example:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/u-k-told-it-has-zero-chance-of-having-brexit-cake-and-eating-it

While a final deal has to be approved by a qualified majority comprising of 72 percent of the remaining members and 65 percent of the EU population, any member can veto the process while granting the negotiating mandate, a process that will be updated by the bloc’s leaders, Prouza said.

What does that mean?

Article 50 clearly talks about a qualified majority, and I believe that pure trade deals can also be agreed by qualified majority. However, any deal which strays into areas not strictly about trade may need unanimous agreement.

I think that the answer to this question will determine whether or not we end up with a very hard and bumpy Brexit.

The final deal is without question subject to QMV - that's specified in Article 50 (paragraph 2). There may, however, be points along the way where effective or actual vetoes could be applied.

Also worth noting that while individual member states don't have a veto on the deal, the European Parliament does.

"Theresa May did so little in the Remain campaign that she actually made it look like Jeremy Corbyn pulled a shift "

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

only the nutters join parties these days

How very dare you madam!

I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.

if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity

I'm pro Corbyn, I wrote this thread that proves it.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

I'm still very proud of this closer

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

As an organisation Momentum preaches openness, transparency and democracy. Funnily enough, though, its leadership is unelected and unaccountable. That Corbyn has thrown his hat in with them is, therefore, no huge surprise.

Interesting on turnout. Clearly, neither candidate is inspiring much enthusiasm. For Owen Smith, that's by the by. For Jeremy Corbyn it would be a further sign that the writing is on the wall.

Given the duration, publicity, exposure and campaigning, if a member doesn't vote it is hard to see it as anything other than NOTO.

Given that they both stood on an identical policy platform (previously seen as being at the party's extreme) and that Smith didn't quite live up to the big-hitting gaffe-free competent leaderissimo that was billed, a big NOTO isn't surprising?

Both are well to the left of me, but Smith recognised and stated clearly that Labour has to prioritise seeking to be a party of government so he was always going to get my vote. In addition to not sharing Corbyn's politics and his support for various deeply unpleasant causes, his lack of interest in engaging with ordinary voters and winning general elections were never going to do it for me. But as I wrote on here at the start of the summer, I am in a minority in Labour. Funnily enough, though, I am a lot more optimistic about the future than I was in June. Momentum's small membership and the low turnout tell me that Corbyn-fever will not endure.

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

dugarbandier said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I actually feel sorry for Neil Kinnock.

He was a leader who successfully defeated a hard left takeover and helped Blair win, whereas Corbyn is helping the hard left takeover of Labour.

Me feeling sympathy for Neil Kinnock, that's how Labour have sunk.

He got his party back with Ed though. I'm beginning to worry about the lack of grumbling from some of the older members I know, they seem to be in the same mood of "we've got our party back" since Mrs May has taken charge.

Indeed. I need to do a thread on it this weekend.

David Cameron's the only Tory in the last 24 years to have won a majority (or even a general election) and a significant portion of the Tory party thinks he's a Lib Dem.

Yes, Cameron truly is the heir to Blair, their respective parties think they are duffers but they win elections.

only the nutters join parties these days

How very dare you madam!

I've been a member of the Tory party for nearly 20 years, oh I see your point now.

if you were in labour you would have been prevented from voting on account of your internet activity

I'm pro Corbyn, I wrote this thread that proves it.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

I'm still very proud of this closer

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

I was thinking more of your suggestions here of forming a rival political group "dry not fussed about gays or europe" IIRC

ironically, seems the tories are more tolerant at this point in time...