politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB th
Comments
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that's not the case for the data presented there, is it?ThreeQuidder said:
Well, yes. It's possible to have more than one leader simultaneously in the "winning zone" but only one can win.BannedInParis said:
I merely noted that there were a lot of losers in the winning zone ...ThreeQuidder said:
I think you may have misread it (maybe it's badly named). Being in the "winning zone" doesn't guarantee victory but is a prerequisite for it. (apparently, I haven't actually checked!)BannedInParis said:
Surely the winning zone is far smaller - given that, after all, EdM lost, the vertical line should be at ~ 42.5 %. Which leaves Blair and the might-have-been Smith in the winning zone.dr_spyn said:Not good for Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/mattsmithetc/status/7763499327395020800 -
Best Generals choose and prepare the ground before the fight. These matters are predictable and explainable.Charles said:
Complicated case difficult to make vs. Labour screaming 'snot fair!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why is the Govt so disengaged and ill prepared in the air war?Charles said:
........Lucian_Fletcher said:I think history will largely forget Gordon Brown.
As for the boundary review, I'm pretty sure that the Tories can ask the BC to consider a later set of electoral rolls (which seems the only real argument opponents have) and have another go. It's years until the next election and that can form part of the revisions. It won't make anything like the difference the ''gerrymander" idiots claim.
I also think they should have more leeway to keep towns together. If they can make provision for the islands, they can avoid boundaries being in the middle of villages or small towns.
In any event, the "missing 2 million" will (a) get to vote at the next election, so they aren't disenfranchised and (b) be included in the next boundary review in 2021.
It's an attempt to take a non-issue that sounds bad and to use it for partisan advantage
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That would raise a question about the Education Department not suggesting the usual letter to the new SoS.JonathanD said:
The head at my son's primary school made a comment at yesterday's parents evening that normally they receive a cheery email from the SoS for education at the start of every school year wishing them well and exhorting them to greatness but that this year they hadn't heard a thing from Greening. To not do that just seems a basic error in good management.TCPoliticalBetting said:
It does look that way. More Brownite than Cameroon.MaxPB said:
I think it's the new style of government, everything goes through Theresa. She doesn't seem to believe in Cabinet government. I think we're going to miss Dave's chairman of the board style of leadership.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why have the Govt failed to inform us on the real position of this 2million missing voters? Is it real or half that or evenly spread? etc etc Are they asleep or just failing to properly address all the issues (eg grammar schools) that sit there festering away?philiph said:
Is the 2 million figure real or urban myth? I thought it was 2 million registrations - of which many were duplicates of those already on the register, so a gross number without netting off the duplications. However, I may well be wrong. In general presentational terms I suspect there is a willingness to allow misconceptions to fester by the use of 'Missing 2 Million'. To the less politically aware it infers that the 2 million will be disenfranchised. This is a deception, as they will be eligible to vote if they enroll on the electoral roll, but were not included in the count for the constituency boundary this time, but they will then be a part of the count for the next boundary review.Verulamius said:Anthony Wells estimated that the likely impact of the additional 2m voters would be to remove one seat from each of Northern Ireland, North West and West Midlands and for the South East to gain one and London two.
.........
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I must admit the screams of gerrymandering coming from people who should know better are bloody irritating.0
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Mrs May is Blairite in control but Brownite in decision taking.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Betting, or Blairite.
Cameron was unusual in his approach to Cabinet. It was one of the better things about him.
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In fairness, it's also something she could have thought of for herself. SoS shouldn't entirely rely on her HumphreysTCPoliticalBetting said:
That would raise a question about the Education Department not suggesting the usual letter to the new SoS.0 -
I don't find their hypocritical whining irritating, I enjoy it immensely.Lucian_Fletcher said:I must admit the screams of gerrymandering coming from people who should know better are bloody irritating.
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Useful link here. Of course, the seats within the regions might be slightly different too. But this really isn't a case of a "missing 2 million".
Also NB
“the [Boundary Commission for England] does not take the view that it is obliged to shut its eyes entirely to growth (or decline) that has occurred since the review date, which it may be aware of from the annual updates of electorate figures it receives, or that it is satisfied is likely to occur. Such a factor may be taken into account in choosing between two or more competing options for the same area that satisfy the statutory rules.”
https://twitter.com/Xlibris1/status/7763608893730570570 -
'Bout the same amount of credence I give to anonymous pom pom girls on t'internet.ThreeQuidder said:
And you believe what you read in the papers?Theuniondivvie said:
Strange, the house paper for reactionaries everywhere seems to think that's a different one to the one we have now.ThreeQuidder said:
37% in 2015.Theuniondivvie said:
Which voters in which election chose the current government?ThreeQuidder said:
I would rather the government was chosen by the voters in an election rather than by the politicians after it.Dadge said:
This really is a specious argument. The current government is able to foist its will on 100% of voters based on the "explicit support" of 37% of those that voted. Why is 37% enough? How low is enough? Would it, in your mind, be better to have a government with the "explicit support" of one single voter, than a coalition where the country is run on the basis of finding agreement between parties supported by a majority of voters?ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
'How Theresa May's Government has distanced itself from David Cameron'
http://tinyurl.com/h8ghk9k0 -
Yes, and this would be the wrong ground to fight on. You can't win every battle - this one you just plough through, testudo formationTCPoliticalBetting said:
Best Generals choose and prepare the ground before the fight. These matters are predictable and explainable.Charles said:
Complicated case difficult to make vs. Labour screaming 'snot fair!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why is the Govt so disengaged and ill prepared in the air war?Charles said:
........Lucian_Fletcher said:I think history will largely forget Gordon Brown.
As for the boundary review, I'm pretty sure that the Tories can ask the BC to consider a later set of electoral rolls (which seems the only real argument opponents have) and have another go. It's years until the next election and that can form part of the revisions. It won't make anything like the difference the ''gerrymander" idiots claim.
I also think they should have more leeway to keep towns together. If they can make provision for the islands, they can avoid boundaries being in the middle of villages or small towns.
In any event, the "missing 2 million" will (a) get to vote at the next election, so they aren't disenfranchised and (b) be included in the next boundary review in 2021.
It's an attempt to take a non-issue that sounds bad and to use it for partisan advantage0 -
Lucian_Fletcher said:
I must admit the screams of gerrymandering coming from people who should know better are bloody irritating.
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Tim Montgomerie ✔ @montie
May vowed to control immigration then backed Remain. And now Hinkley. She may be bad at the crunch moment decisions0 -
Divvie's misogynist hoof emerges.Theuniondivvie said:
'Bout the same amount of credence I give to anonymous pom pom girls on t'internet.ThreeQuidder said:
And you believe what you read in the papers?Theuniondivvie said:
Strange, the house paper for reactionaries everywhere seems to think that's a different one to the one we have now.ThreeQuidder said:
37% in 2015.Theuniondivvie said:
Which voters in which election chose the current government?ThreeQuidder said:
I would rather the government was chosen by the voters in an election rather than by the politicians after it.Dadge said:
This really is a specious argument. The current government is able to foist its will on 100% of voters based on the "explicit support" of 37% of those that voted. Why is 37% enough? How low is enough? Would it, in your mind, be better to have a government with the "explicit support" of one single voter, than a coalition where the country is run on the basis of finding agreement between parties supported by a majority of voters?ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
'How Theresa May's Government has distanced itself from David Cameron'
http://tinyurl.com/h8ghk9k0 -
Asa Bennett
"I'm not someone who wishes to speak in favour of Europe's increased militarisation," Juncker says. "But..." (goes on to do just that)0 -
Dear me, Neil Coyle MP is not a happy bunny:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live
10.56
It's really hard to see how Labour can recover any time soon from this level of vicious infighting.0 -
Maybe. She has her faults, the handling of this grammar schools is partly due to her. But overlooking a regular annual letter comes down to her civil servants that provide the continuity.Lucian_Fletcher said:
In fairness, it's also something she could have thought of for herself. SoS shouldn't entirely rely on her HumphreysTCPoliticalBetting said:
That would raise a question about the Education Department not suggesting the usual letter to the new SoS.
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You think 'girls' is an insult?MonikerDiCanio said:
Divvie's misogynist hoof emerges.Theuniondivvie said:
'Bout the same amount of credence I give to anonymous pom pom girls on t'internet.ThreeQuidder said:
And you believe what you read in the papers?Theuniondivvie said:
Strange, the house paper for reactionaries everywhere seems to think that's a different one to the one we have now.ThreeQuidder said:
37% in 2015.Theuniondivvie said:
Which voters in which election chose the current government?ThreeQuidder said:
I would rather the government was chosen by the voters in an election rather than by the politicians after it.Dadge said:
This really is a specious argument. The current government is able to foist its will on 100% of voters based on the "explicit support" of 37% of those that voted. Why is 37% enough? How low is enough? Would it, in your mind, be better to have a government with the "explicit support" of one single voter, than a coalition where the country is run on the basis of finding agreement between parties supported by a majority of voters?ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
'How Theresa May's Government has distanced itself from David Cameron'
http://tinyurl.com/h8ghk9k0 -
Ipsos Mori
Just one in four brand Corbyn 'capable' as poll ratings plunge in year as leader
If a snap election were held, the Tories would win with 40 per cent, six points ahead of Labour’s 34. Ukip are on nine per cent and the Lib-Dems are on six.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/just-one-in-four-brand-corbyn-capable-as-poll-ratings-plunge-in-year-as-leader-a3345611.html0 -
They do rely on the desperate remoaning of Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics. he said "the figures had to be treated with some scepticism as surveys from the British Retail Consortium, BDO and Visa all pointed to a much bigger fall in sales volumes. "The chances the official data are revised down therefore seem high," he said.""MonikerDiCanio said:
I suppose it's beyond the ken of our taxpayer-funded BBC twerps that the good numbers are because of Brexit rather than despite it;TCPoliticalBetting said:Analysts mocking Carney?
Mike van Dulken @Accendo_Mike
I guess Carney will be even more serene now
9:32 AM - 15 Sep 2016
Michael Hewson @mhewson_CMC
Notable that this was pre rate cut as well. UK consumers even more serene about Brexit. https://twitter.com/jlawler_CMC/status/776338293000658944 …
9:35 AM - 15 Sep 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-373723620 -
Ipsos Mori changes since last month in brackets
Con 40 (-5)
Lab 34 (nc)
UKIP 9 (+3)
LD 6 (-1)0 -
Neil Coyle loaned his nomination to Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership campaign. I bet he regrets that decision now.0
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From the looks of that, it is the southwest that is the key battleground for the next election.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori changes since last month in brackets
Con 40 (-5)
Lab 34 (nc)
UKIP 9 (+3)
LD 6 (-1)0 -
It really is astonishing. Where have all these toxic poisoning trolls been hiding for the last thirty years? Under bridges somewhere?Richard_Nabavi said:Dear me, Neil Coyle MP is not a happy bunny:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live
10.56
It's really hard to see how Labour can recover any time soon from this level of vicious infighting.0 -
TSE @TSEofPB 2m2 minutes ago
Ipsos Mori changes since last month in brackets
Con 40 (-5)
Lab 34 (nc)
UKIP 9 (+3)
LD 6 (-1)
Grammar School bounce for May0 -
Labour, 34%? You are having a laugh. Take 10% off this figure at least.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori
Just one in four brand Corbyn 'capable' as poll ratings plunge in year as leader
If a snap election were held, the Tories would win with 40 per cent, six points ahead of Labour’s 34. Ukip are on nine per cent and the Lib-Dems are on six.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/just-one-in-four-brand-corbyn-capable-as-poll-ratings-plunge-in-year-as-leader-a3345611.html0 -
It's been aimed away from the party. They've merely turned the guns 180 degrees.rottenborough said:
It really is astonishing. Where have all these toxic poisoning trolls been hiding for the last thirty years? Under bridges somewhere?Richard_Nabavi said:Dear me, Neil Coyle MP is not a happy bunny:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live
10.56
It's really hard to see how Labour can recover any time soon from this level of vicious infighting.0 -
In the grand scheme of things it might have been better for Lab had Simon Hughes had held the seatAlastairMeeks said:Neil Coyle loaned his nomination to Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership campaign. I bet he regrets that decision now.
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He's on the listAlastairMeeks said:Neil Coyle loaned his nomination to Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership campaign. I bet he regrets that decision now.
Therefore according to my MP on Radio Sheffield he will be bricked
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He made his bed, he has to bloody well lie in it. I can't tell you my level of contempt for the PLP right now.AlastairMeeks said:Neil Coyle loaned his nomination to Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership campaign. I bet he regrets that decision now.
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Now now. They certainly widened the debate.Pulpstar said:
He made his bed, he has to bloody well lie in it. I can't tell you my level of contempt for the PLP right now.AlastairMeeks said:Neil Coyle loaned his nomination to Jeremy Corbyn last year for the leadership campaign. I bet he regrets that decision now.
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In the 90s Tory MP Sir Richard Body threatened to sue John Major when Sir John said Richard Body made him think of men in white coats.0
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That twat Carney was trying to take credit for it by saying his actions were already working. Bs of course, but he has to say something I guess.TCPoliticalBetting said:Analysts mocking Carney?
Mike van Dulken @Accendo_Mike
I guess Carney will be even more serene now
9:32 AM - 15 Sep 2016
Michael Hewson @mhewson_CMC
Notable that this was pre rate cut as well. UK consumers even more serene about Brexit. https://twitter.com/jlawler_CMC/status/776338293000658944 …
9:35 AM - 15 Sep 20160 -
@Pulpstar His decision has reCoyled on him.0
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He was spitting tacks on Sky earlier. Nowhere near Mann, but clearly affronted.rottenborough said:
It really is astonishing. Where have all these toxic poisoning trolls been hiding for the last thirty years? Under bridges somewhere?Richard_Nabavi said:Dear me, Neil Coyle MP is not a happy bunny:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/sep/15/may-approves-hinkley-point-but-with-new-safeguards-over-foreign-nuclear-investment-politics-live
10.56
It's really hard to see how Labour can recover any time soon from this level of vicious infighting.0 -
Nicola would be disappointed in you. For sure.Theuniondivvie said:
You think 'girls' is an insult?MonikerDiCanio said:
Divvie's misogynist hoof emerges.Theuniondivvie said:
'Bout the same amount of credence I give to anonymous pom pom girls on t'internet.ThreeQuidder said:
And you believe what you read in the papers?Theuniondivvie said:
Strange, the house paper for reactionaries everywhere seems to think that's a different one to the one we have now.ThreeQuidder said:
37% in 2015.Theuniondivvie said:
Which voters in which election chose the current government?ThreeQuidder said:
I would rather the government was chosen by the voters in an election rather than by the politicians after it.Dadge said:
This really is a specious argument. The current government is able to foist its will on 100% of voters based on the "explicit support" of 37% of those that voted. Why is 37% enough? How low is enough? Would it, in your mind, be better to have a government with the "explicit support" of one single voter, than a coalition where the country is run on the basis of finding agreement between parties supported by a majority of voters?ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
'How Theresa May's Government has distanced itself from David Cameron'
http://tinyurl.com/h8ghk9k0 -
That's an atrocious pun.AlastairMeeks said:@Pulpstar His decision has reCoyled on him.
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There are betting implications for Jeremy Corbyn (aged 67 1/4)'s list of enemies. It's hard to imagine him being succeeded by anyone on the list, given the vengeance that the Momentum Maenads will insist upon. This is particularly true of would-be unity candidates. Sell Tom Watson and Stephen Kinnock in particular.0
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So your answer is that we just get A who nearly twice as many people don't want? Marvellous.ThreeQuidder said:
Another majority which doesn't necessarily support the said government's composition.IanB2 said:
Because together they would speak for a majority.ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
35% supporting A and 25% supporting B does not imply that 60% supports ( A + B ).0 -
I want Carney gone - what a shifty and political opportunist. Mervyn was exactly the role model to follow - never doubted his impartiality/integrity for a momentnunu said:
That twat Carney was trying to take credit for it by saying his actions were already working. Bs of course, but he has to say something I guess.TCPoliticalBetting said:Analysts mocking Carney?
Mike van Dulken @Accendo_Mike
I guess Carney will be even more serene now
9:32 AM - 15 Sep 2016
Michael Hewson @mhewson_CMC
Notable that this was pre rate cut as well. UK consumers even more serene about Brexit. https://twitter.com/jlawler_CMC/status/776338293000658944 …
9:35 AM - 15 Sep 20160 -
A varied set of by-elections today. The usual good detailed summary from Andrew Teale on http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
By-elections include mayor of Hackney and Bishops Castle in the English Marches.0 -
Mr. Nunu, Carney could save time by just stating all the good things were due to his actions and all the bad things were due to the British public voting wrong.0
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"Joff Wild is puzzled by the half-hearted response of Corbyn’s team. It’s as if they don’t care"
sounds like the co-pupils of the 9/11 bombers being struck by their lack of interest in the lessons about landing aeroplanes.0 -
LOL!Verulamius said:A varied set of by-elections today. The usual good detailed summary from Andrew Teale on http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
By-elections include mayor of Hackney and Bishops Castle in the English Marches.
TUPTON
North East Derbyshire council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Wayne Lilleyman after an assault at Tupton Miners’ Welfare in which he bit an 18-year-old man on the nose; he received a police caution. He had served since 2011.
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I've put an order (Best price) on Kinnock, but Watson at 26/30 could well com in when Owen Smith loses simply as he is still deputy leader. A sell at 30 doesn't really tempt for him.AlastairMeeks said:There are betting implications for Jeremy Corbyn (aged 67 1/4)'s list of enemies. It's hard to imagine him being succeeded by anyone on the list, given the vengeance that the Momentum Maenads will insist upon. This is particularly true of would-be unity candidates. Sell Tom Watson and Stephen Kinnock in particular.
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Coyle accused Corbyn of “defamation” and said he was “livid” about being singled out in this way.
All I know is that the leader of my party has gone out of his way to issue a statement accusing my of abuse with no detail, no forewarning, no explanation of what I’m accused of.
Try being a Corbyn supporting member mate 000's of members received suspensions with no detail, no forewarning, no explanation of what they are accused of. They have lost their votes on spurious information.
Not heard any splitters speaking out against Purge 20 -
My favourite serious Powell email so far
"She's got trouble too. No one likes her and the criminal thing ain't over," Leeds wrote in March 2016. "I don't think the president would weep if she found herself in real legal trouble. She'll pummel his legacy if she gets a chance and he knows it."
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/18-things-we-learned-from-colin-powells-leaked-emails/article/26018360 -
Mr. Owls, I did ask this before but it was a while ago so your answer may have changed: do you think, should Corbyn win again, there will be a split in the PLP, with some toddling off to SDP2?0
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Local Lib Dem team has been working very hard here. Never got round to door knocking myself, work and a DIY project got in the waytlg86 said:
LOL!Verulamius said:A varied set of by-elections today. The usual good detailed summary from Andrew Teale on http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
By-elections include mayor of Hackney and Bishops Castle in the English Marches.
TUPTON
North East Derbyshire council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Wayne Lilleyman after an assault at Tupton Miners’ Welfare in which he bit an 18-year-old man on the nose; he received a police caution. He had served since 2011.
0 -
I think that's not fair, without Carney's language Sterling would have surged past $1.35 by now, especially with weak data coming out of the US. This is a concerted effort to hold Sterling down IMO, for good reason to given the huge current account deficit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nunu, Carney could save time by just stating all the good things were due to his actions and all the bad things were due to the British public voting wrong.
There may be method behind the madness.0 -
Kinnock is surely in a desperate position. His Aberavon seat is being dismembered.Pulpstar said:
I've put an order (Best price) on Kinnock, but Watson at 26/30 could well com in when Owen Smith loses simply as he is still deputy leader. A sell at 30 doesn't really tempt for him.AlastairMeeks said:There are betting implications for Jeremy Corbyn (aged 67 1/4)'s list of enemies. It's hard to imagine him being succeeded by anyone on the list, given the vengeance that the Momentum Maenads will insist upon. This is particularly true of would-be unity candidates. Sell Tom Watson and Stephen Kinnock in particular.
He only won the nomination for the original Aberavon seat by one vote, and since then he has been shown to have lied to his constituency party about the private education of his daughter.
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On Topic Joff Wild the Labour Party member who will not lift a finger to help Labour win and will not vote Labour under Corbyn.
Tells LabourCorbyn supporters they do not want to win
Oh the irony!!!0 -
YBarddCwsc said:
Kinnock is surely in a desperate position. His Aberavon seat is being dismembered.Pulpstar said:
I've put an order (Best price) on Kinnock, but Watson at 26/30 could well com in when Owen Smith loses simply as he is still deputy leader. A sell at 30 doesn't really tempt for him.AlastairMeeks said:There are betting implications for Jeremy Corbyn (aged 67 1/4)'s list of enemies. It's hard to imagine him being succeeded by anyone on the list, given the vengeance that the Momentum Maenads will insist upon. This is particularly true of would-be unity candidates. Sell Tom Watson and Stephen Kinnock in particular.
He only won the nomination for the original Aberavon seat by one vote, and since then he has been shown to have lied to his constituency party about the private education of his daughter. 0 -
Mr. Max, perhaps.0
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Betting tip
Stephen Kinnock is being sold by some mug at 24.0 for £30 on Betfair.
Will pay out over £700 when it comes in 0 -
I probably thought at the time up to 40 may toddle off. I think that is less likely now but still think about a dozen might not necissarily the 13 on the listMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, I did ask this before but it was a while ago so your answer may have changed: do you think, should Corbyn win again, there will be a split in the PLP, with some toddling off to SDP2?
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MaxPB said:
Toby Young with some interesting observations in the Telegraph today about grammar schools. I'm inclined to agree with him. I'm also glad that the government have kicked off the debate because the lack of support for these specific proposals on Tory benches is heartening. It shows the party is fit to govern for all and not just the elite.
As I said yesterday, I'm a supporter of grammar schools in the abstract and I believe they have a role to play in a reformed education sector, but bolting them onto the existing education system will do more harm than good. It shows in the number of mitigating factors the government are having to impose on their own policy that they realise this as well.
If the government move to a German style primary and secondary education system, grammar schooling, or schooling for academic excellence is a problem that solves itself. Trade, technical and apprenticeship schools are just as important as schools for academic excellence, we should improve and create all of those first before trying to turn A grade students into A* grade students.
I heard a few German kids complain about selection in similar terms to those who object to grammars; Wikipedia confirms it's an issue:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Germany#Contemporary_issues0 -
Mr. Owls, cheers, interesting to hear your thoughts on the matter.0
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"Labour was dealt a heavy blow today with an exclusive poll revealing Jeremy Corbyn’s key leadership ratings have plunged in his first year as leader.
His ratings have sunk for being a “capable leader” and having “lots of personality”, while fewer than one in five think he would be “good in a crisis”, the Ipsos MORI research reveals.
Fewer than a quarter of voters (24 per cent) think he is a capable leader, compared with 68 per cent who say the same of Theresa May.
....
Among the general public, Mr Corbyn is trounced by Mrs May on most key ratings, including sound judgment, vision, understanding Britain’s problems and being patriotic.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/just-one-in-four-brand-corbyn-capable-as-poll-ratings-plunge-in-year-as-leader-a3345611.html0 -
It is possible that his pronouncements are slightly coloured by a baser, exculpatory motive. But yes, if one assumes his interventions are aimed at keeping GBP < USD 1.35, his actions of the last 3 weeks seem both logical and consistent.MaxPB said:
I think that's not fair, without Carney's language Sterling would have surged past $1.35 by now, especially with weak data coming out of the US. This is a concerted effort to hold Sterling down IMO, for good reason to given the huge current account deficit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nunu, Carney could save time by just stating all the good things were due to his actions and all the bad things were due to the British public voting wrong.
There may be method behind the madness.0 -
0
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Perhaps we should submit some entries?AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=602220 -
Yes it is better to have 37% get exactly what they voted for than nobody does. If you don't like it, the others can then congregate on an alternative next time.IanB2 said:
So your answer is that we just get A who nearly twice as many people don't want? Marvellous.ThreeQuidder said:
Another majority which doesn't necessarily support the said government's composition.IanB2 said:
Because together they would speak for a majority.ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.
35% supporting A and 25% supporting B does not imply that 60% supports ( A + B ).
Over 11.3 million people getting their choice is better than not a single individual getting their choice.0 -
When the Messiah gets elected, these events will be shown live on all major tv channels and be required viewing.AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=602220 -
@Richard_Nabavi I would, but the only rhyme I can think of for "Corbyn" is "absorbing".
Perhaps haikus are the way to go.0 -
Creepy stuff – next they’ll be getting haircuts like Kim Jong-un.AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=602220 -
Two roads diverged in a wood, and he-Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we should submit some entries?AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=60222
He took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.0 -
'Daubing' might well be usefulAlastairMeeks said:@Richard_Nabavi I would, but the only rhyme I can think of for "Corbyn" is "absorbing".
Perhaps haikus are the way to go.0 -
Sad news: I did not receive a reply from Juncker regarding my query as to whether Highland Park 12 Year Orkney Malt or Talisker 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky is better.0
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Corbyn polls poorlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we should submit some entries?AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=60222
But he is great to bet on
Against Owen Smith0 -
Hillary won't be attending Bill's birthday celebration/ fundraiser.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/15/politics/bill-clinton-foundation-birthday-fundraiser/
Tickets still available from $ 50,000.00 to $ 250,000.00, if you hurry.0 -
Will Parliament wash socialism
Clean from his heart? No; Jeremy's heart will rather
The multitudinous benches incarnadine,
Making the green ones red.0 -
With thanks to Private Eye for the gag:
Shami will you please
write me a bit of whitewash?
Yes, I'd be honoured0 -
Does anyone else get the feeling that May has become too dictatorial and we are back to the Tony Blair days of sofa government rather than cabinet government?0
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I totally agree with you. If someone looked up my Twitter account when I was a propah Tory, applyng Labour's new compliance rules - I'd have been suspended in seconds. One can agree a good point has been made by an opponent, a laughing tweet shared, a valid criticism hit home.bigjohnowls said:Coyle accused Corbyn of “defamation” and said he was “livid” about being singled out in this way.
All I know is that the leader of my party has gone out of his way to issue a statement accusing my of abuse with no detail, no forewarning, no explanation of what I’m accused of.
Try being a Corbyn supporting member mate 000's of members received suspensions with no detail, no forewarning, no explanation of what they are accused of. They have lost their votes on spurious information.
Not heard any splitters speaking out against Purge 2
I've a fair few Corbynistas in my timeline and some of the suspension decisions are bizarre/look like grievance/revenge. I gather c3000 have been suspended so far. When a Party can't see that dissent from either wing is a sign of trouble and seeks to excise it instead - it's doomed.0 -
Interesting Standard poll despite the erosion in Corbyn's ratings (except patriotism, where he's improved sharply, and honesty) after his gruelling summer. Tory lead still only 6 points (40-34) and Labour ahead on the generic "like" rating (38-37). The plausible range for Labour at the moment is somewhere between the 24% who think Corbyn capable (which is his "floor") and the 38% who like Labour and think Corbyn has a clear vision (the ceiling).0
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We're not racist here.
Ken, what are your thoughts about
Germany's Third reich ?0 -
Ipsos Mori - the Jeremy Corbyn of the polling fraternity.0
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Are you looking forward to becoming part of Bolsover and Dronfield?Pulpstar said:
Local Lib Dem team has been working very hard here. Never got round to door knocking myself, work and a DIY project got in the waytlg86 said:
LOL!Verulamius said:A varied set of by-elections today. The usual good detailed summary from Andrew Teale on http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
By-elections include mayor of Hackney and Bishops Castle in the English Marches.
TUPTON
North East Derbyshire council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Wayne Lilleyman after an assault at Tupton Miners’ Welfare in which he bit an 18-year-old man on the nose; he received a police caution. He had served since 2011.0 -
Immensely, I haven't thought about anything else for the last day.tlg86 said:
Are you looking forward to becoming part of Bolsover and Dronfield?Pulpstar said:
Local Lib Dem team has been working very hard here. Never got round to door knocking myself, work and a DIY project got in the waytlg86 said:
LOL!Verulamius said:A varied set of by-elections today. The usual good detailed summary from Andrew Teale on http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-15-9-16
By-elections include mayor of Hackney and Bishops Castle in the English Marches.
TUPTON
North East Derbyshire council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Wayne Lilleyman after an assault at Tupton Miners’ Welfare in which he bit an 18-year-old man on the nose; he received a police caution. He had served since 2011.0 -
Roses are redRichard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we should submit some entries?AlastairMeeks said:A date for your diaries:
http://www.writeoutloud.net/public/blogentry.php?blogentryid=60222
Violets are blue
Thanks to JC
Labour's deep in the poo.
Maybe we should get JohnO, he's good with limericks...0 -
What do you think of the fact that most of the opponents of grammar schools on the Tory benches are privately educated?MaxPB said:Toby Young with some interesting observations in the Telegraph today about grammar schools. I'm inclined to agree with him. I'm also glad that the government have kicked off the debate because the lack of support for these specific proposals on Tory benches is heartening. It shows the party is fit to govern for all and not just the elite.
As I said yesterday, I'm a supporter of grammar schools in the abstract and I believe they have a role to play in a reformed education sector, but bolting them onto the existing education system will do more harm than good. It shows in the number of mitigating factors the government are having to impose on their own policy that they realise this as well.
If the government move to a German style primary and secondary education system, grammar schooling, or schooling for academic excellence is a problem that solves itself. Trade, technical and apprenticeship schools are just as important as schools for academic excellence, we should improve and create all of those first before trying to turn A grade students into A* grade students.0 -
This is Brilliant
Daft polling
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/breakdown-of-yougov-poll-on-apocalyptic.html?m=10 -
Approximately 800 too many.Sunil_Prasannan said:
800 Lords for 65 million is also way, way too much for an Upper House?DavidL said:Is it possible that even Corbyn, the master of the lost or pointless cause, has recognised the futility of trying to defend an electoral system based on population distributions of 2000? That the principle of equal value of votes has merit and is democratic? That the Electoral Commission is independent and not "a Tory stitch up"?
600 MPs for 65m people is a lot, arguably too many. The House of Congress manages with 435 for over 324m. The argument that this is going to make these unqualified and frequently unskilled social workers too busy is risible. The fact that FPTP produces majorities for the largest party is a feature, not a bug. It leads to stronger governments.
There is always room for discussion, negotiation and debate on the EC's proposals where they are thought to break up communities. The process allows for this and this is what Labour should be concentrating its efforts on.0 -
Just two weeks ago, we were discussing whether Hillary might win a landslide; at that time the RCP 'no toss-ups' map had her winning by 362 to Trump's 176. Now it is 293 to 245.0
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You're too kind, going on his past pronouncements that didn't turn out the way he foresaw I would say he is out of his depth. Think he should have stuck to being govenor of a reserve bank more in his range, after Canada he should have gone to Australia. Another country that is mostly a rural backwater with a large commodity driven export economy, the U.K economy is too sophisticated for him.MaxPB said:
I think that's not fair, without Carney's language Sterling would have surged past $1.35 by now, especially with weak data coming out of the US. This is a concerted effort to hold Sterling down IMO, for good reason to given the huge current account deficit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nunu, Carney could save time by just stating all the good things were due to his actions and all the bad things were due to the British public voting wrong.
There may be method behind the madness.0 -
Or doesn't work.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, it has a majority of MPs. That's how a parliamentary democracy works.
0 -
He sees Labour driving at full speed towards the precipice, and does not want to add his weight to the accelerator.bigjohnowls said:On Topic Joff Wild the Labour Party member who will not lift a finger to help Labour win and will not vote Labour under Corbyn.
Tells LabourCorbyn supporters they do not want to win
Oh the irony!!!
How do you think Labour can win under Corbyn? How have they headed in the right direction after one year with Corbyn as leader?0 -
I'm opposed to these proposals and I went to a grammar school. I'm in favour of grammar schools or more generally academic selection at a certain age, but these proposals are ill thought out and will make the situation worse.AndyJS said:
What do you think of the fact that most of the opponents of grammar schools on the Tory benches are privately educated?MaxPB said:Toby Young with some interesting observations in the Telegraph today about grammar schools. I'm inclined to agree with him. I'm also glad that the government have kicked off the debate because the lack of support for these specific proposals on Tory benches is heartening. It shows the party is fit to govern for all and not just the elite.
As I said yesterday, I'm a supporter of grammar schools in the abstract and I believe they have a role to play in a reformed education sector, but bolting them onto the existing education system will do more harm than good. It shows in the number of mitigating factors the government are having to impose on their own policy that they realise this as well.
If the government move to a German style primary and secondary education system, grammar schooling, or schooling for academic excellence is a problem that solves itself. Trade, technical and apprenticeship schools are just as important as schools for academic excellence, we should improve and create all of those first before trying to turn A grade students into A* grade students.0 -
Maraudin'Richard_Nabavi said:
'Daubing' might well be usefulAlastairMeeks said:@Richard_Nabavi I would, but the only rhyme I can think of for "Corbyn" is "absorbing".
Perhaps haikus are the way to go.
Maudlin
Perhaps a skit on Shakespeare
After when he was elected it was a Midsummer Night's Dream that has turned into a nightmare... the Tempest is overwhelming them and unless Smith can Tame the Shrew then, well, Love, Labour's Lost
(I'll get my coat)0 -
I see that my observation that Leavers are strangely bitter despite having won is receiving ample support today in respect of Mark Carney.0
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Simplest solution indeed I agree.DavidL said:
Approximately 800 too many.Sunil_Prasannan said:
800 Lords for 65 million is also way, way too much for an Upper House?DavidL said:Is it possible that even Corbyn, the master of the lost or pointless cause, has recognised the futility of trying to defend an electoral system based on population distributions of 2000? That the principle of equal value of votes has merit and is democratic? That the Electoral Commission is independent and not "a Tory stitch up"?
600 MPs for 65m people is a lot, arguably too many. The House of Congress manages with 435 for over 324m. The argument that this is going to make these unqualified and frequently unskilled social workers too busy is risible. The fact that FPTP produces majorities for the largest party is a feature, not a bug. It leads to stronger governments.
There is always room for discussion, negotiation and debate on the EC's proposals where they are thought to break up communities. The process allows for this and this is what Labour should be concentrating its efforts on.0 -
The government is always chosen by the politicians. By just one (or two) politicians in fact.ThreeQuidder said:
I would rather the government was chosen by the voters in an election rather than by the politicians after it.Dadge said:
This really is a specious argument. The current government is able to foist its will on 100% of voters based on the "explicit support" of 37% of those that voted. Why is 37% enough? How low is enough? Would it, in your mind, be better to have a government with the "explicit support" of one single voter, than a coalition where the country is run on the basis of finding agreement between parties supported by a majority of voters?ThreeQuidder said:
Why would it be better to have a government with the explicit support of 0% of the voters?Jonathan said:FPTP is broken, it has been for years.
Today the Tories have 100% of the power.
Because they have 50% of the seats
Because they got 37% support in an election of those that turned out
In total they were supported by 24% of the electorate.0 -
There's nothing bitter about thinking someone is doing a bad job. His projections have proven wrong time and again. He is just not very good at his job, especially compared to his predecessor.Richard_Nabavi said:I see that my observation that Leavers are strangely bitter despite having won is receiving ample support today in respect of Mark Carney.
0 -
If I recall correctly New Hampshire declares first.Richard_Nabavi said:Just two weeks ago, we were discussing whether Hillary might win a landslide; at that time the RCP 'no toss-ups' map had her winning by 362 to Trump's 176. Now it is 293 to 245.
I think we will "know" once it does.0 -
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/us/politics/clinton-book-stronger-together.html
Hillary's book sells less than 3000 copies in its first week.
Only one candidate is box office this year...0 -
Cracking story in our local paper. 'Speeding driver claimed he was testing accelerator'.0
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Not so sure. New Hampshire certainly isn't a bellwether for every demographic.Pulpstar said:
If I recall correctly New Hampshire declares first.Richard_Nabavi said:Just two weeks ago, we were discussing whether Hillary might win a landslide; at that time the RCP 'no toss-ups' map had her winning by 362 to Trump's 176. Now it is 293 to 245.
I think we will "know" once it does.0 -
I'm coming to theview that too much focus on polling is unhelpful.Richard_Nabavi said:Just two weeks ago, we were discussing whether Hillary might win a landslide; at that time the RCP 'no toss-ups' map had her winning by 362 to Trump's 176. Now it is 293 to 245.
Fundamentals will put in the end0 -
I am really not sure I understand the attacks on Carney. He undoubtedly got lent on by Osborne and went somewhat further than he probably should have done pre-Brexit but frankly that has been happening to Governors of the Bank from time immemorial.Richard_Nabavi said:I see that my observation that Leavers are strangely bitter despite having won is receiving ample support today in respect of Mark Carney.
Since Brexit he has resumed his position as a confident, calming influence on the markets which undoubtedly helps in a time of increased uncertainty. I personally thought he was wrong to push through the 0.25% interest rate cut but frankly that is de minimis. I still see him as an asset for the UK, particularly whilst we seem to have inadvertently appointed a Mute as the new Chancellor.0 -
The religion of a lot of people these days seems to be to never admit guilt under any circumstances.Lucian_Fletcher said:Cracking story in our local paper. 'Speeding driver claimed he was testing accelerator'.
0
