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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited September 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when we see the next UK interest rate rise

William Hill have a market up on when ‘Will the Bank Of England Base Rate next rise from its current (August 2016) rate of 0.25%?’ I’m not an economist, so this piece should be viewed in that spirit, but my hunch is to go for the first half of 2017.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good Morning .. :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Damn and blast... second
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    A poor third.
  • gars_pierregars_pierre Posts: 6
    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/02/02/article-2272468-174F10A9000005DC-556_634x407.jpg
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    gars_pierre said:

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/02/02/article-2272468-174F10A9000005DC-556_634x407.jpg

    bloody pete doherty again
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Interest rate rises? – Er, not quite up there with a GE, more two snails crawling up a window...
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    Meanwhile across the pond the polls have narrowed. I still reckon Trump will win.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    Damn and blast... second

    Profound commiserations .... :sunglasses:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    The doom-mongers thought that Article 50 would be triggered on June 24th. It doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    Meanwhile across the pond the polls have narrowed. I still reckon Trump will win.

    I think we should be careful not to speak too son. I know it's tempting to point and laugh at those hoping for Armageddon simply as a result of the vote to Leave, but the focus should be on what happens when we actually leave.

    Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I wonder if the BoE will admit that it made a mistake (as it undoubtedly did) and make the correction before the end of the year?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    williamglenn said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    The doom-mongers thought that Article 50 would should be triggered on June 24th. It doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon.
    Fixed that for you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    edited September 2016
    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    .

    Nothing has actually happened yet, it's all just sentiment! Confidence remains on a knife-edge, the value of the £ has dropped sharply and interest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning. Meanwhile a large amount of both public and private spending continues to be financed on debt. We can hope that Brexit isn't the camel's straw but we won't be able to breathe easy until a couple of years after it has actually been done......
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    The doom-mongers thought that Article 50 would be triggered on June 24th. It doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon.
    Indeed it sounds as if we will see the anniversary of the referendum before negotiations even start.

    Apart from devaluation nothing has happened so far. May is good at doing nothing, it is how she got her job.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    It's a bit skinny, but I'd go for 2018 or later at 4/5.

    There will be plenty of excuses for not doing whilst the Article 50 time period is in effect.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    IanB2 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    It's increasingly looking like the doomongers were wrong on Brexit, isn't it. Britain's booming.

    .

    Nothing has actually happened yet, it's all just sentiment! Confidence remains on a knife-edge, the value of the £ has dropped sharply and interest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning. Meanwhile a large amount of both public and private spending continues to be financed on debt. We can hope that Brexit isn't the camel's straw but we won't be able to breathe easy until a couple of years after it has actually been done......
    At the moment manufacturers are taking orders at what, for overseas buyers is around a 10% discount on what they we paying last year. Presumably to make whatever it said manufacturers are using stocks of raw materials already bought and paid for, or sub-contractors on deals already aranged. (Although I do know of at least one substantial .... for the firm concerned order where that is not the case).
    However, presumably when stocks of "out of UK" raw materials are replaced they will be 10% more expensive which will eat into manufacturers profits. While that’s an over simplistic summary it surely underlines the fact that we shouldn’t jump to conclusions on Brexit.

    As a Remainer I’ve always been of the opinion that the end result will not be as bad as we feared, nor as good as the Leavers claimed.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Matt on form.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/matt-cartoons-september-2016/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited September 2016
    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    I do think that the interest rate cut was a mistake but I don't see it being reversed any time soon. The bigger over reaction was to reopen the magic money box once again after it had been shut for more than 2 years. That increase in the money supply basically means that there will be no funding cost to the government from their deficit this year and there is therefore no pressure at all on the government to increase rates to attract loan finance.

    Without that and with the consensus that the fall in the £ post Brexit was a good thing (as it probably was given our horrendous trade deficit) it is difficult to see what policy objective is going to drive higher interest rates. We have very low inflation, modest growth and no supply issues on the horizon.

    Personally, I think getting back to 4% would be a sign that the economy had finally recovered from 2008 but if I was betting on this market I would go long, 2018.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    If the economy doesn't demand 4% interest rates, what does raising them do other than satisfy pensioners who want government guaranteed risk free positive returns? [yes I know there are wider reasons but this appears to be the fundamental complaint from the public]
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    @Mitch_Al1966: Packed Stockton South CLP meeting tonight, overwhelming support for @jeremycorbyn and a call to unite behind our elected leader.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    edited September 2016
    matt said:

    If the economy doesn't demand 4% interest rates, what does raising them do other than satisfy pensioners who want government guaranteed risk free positive returns? [yes I know there are wider reasons but this appears to be the fundamental complaint from the public]

    The more fundamental issue is getting back to some sort of economic normality with 'sensible' relationships between the value of assets and people's incomes, a cost to borrowing that doesn't encourage both individuals and governments to finance everything through borrowing regardless of the benefit or the prospect of paying it off, and a meaningful incentive to save money. And getting there before the debt burden becomes so big that we will never be able to return to normality without either collapse or a run of inflation that wipes many people out (cf Argentina).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,967
    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Yep. Tory nationally Labour locally voters went Tory. Other Labour voters stayed at home - and that was increasingly evident as we knocked them a 2nd time in the evening and were told "we'll go later". We even had Labour but staying home this time voters say that although they liked what the Labour councillors was doing they couldn't vote for us with Corbyn as leader.

    Meanwhile over on a Labour Facebook forum people ask how much we benefitted from all the new members (more asked to be unsubscribed from emails telling them about campaigning sessions than actually came out campaigning) and that "Tory lite" members would be pleased we lost (what they'd describe as "Tory lite" did most of the work)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do they want one after Britain leaves the EU?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    matt said:

    If the economy doesn't demand 4% interest rates, what does raising them do other than satisfy pensioners who want government guaranteed risk free positive returns? [yes I know there are wider reasons but this appears to be the fundamental complaint from the public]

    Several things. It moderates asset inflation and encourages more productive investment instead; it encourages saving; it would eliminate pension deficits which are currently a huge drag on investment; it should encourage a more efficient allocation of resources and it should encourage people to be sensible about taking on new debt.

    In contrast our zero interest policy allows zombie companies to continue using resources, has substantially increased the wealth differentials between the asset rich and the rest, has meant that there has been insufficient pressure on the government to reduce its deficit and live within its means, has meant that the public have not given sufficient priority to reducing the private sector debt mountain built up before 2008 and has meant that very poor returns have created enormous pension deficits for employers (including the State of course) who offer or offered final salary pension schemes.

    Janet Yellen is right in her diagnosis and her objectives but getting there from here is not going to be easy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is it a week till the iPhone 7 launch?

    @Reuters: BREAKING: #Samsung Electronics will conduct a global recall of Galaxy Note 7 smartphone - Yonhap
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    SimonStClare said:

    Matt on form.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/matt-cartoons-september-2016/

    Leeches are still used. Back around 2000 my department manged the stock for the hospital where I worked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    SquareRoot said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
    If there is anything like a normal swingback that may well prove to be close. The position is complicated by the May honeymoon and the ongoing civil war but Labour are not surprisingly in a very bad place.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Yep. Tory nationally Labour locally voters went Tory. Other Labour voters stayed at home - and that was increasingly evident as we knocked them a 2nd time in the evening and were told "we'll go later". We even had Labour but staying home this time voters say that although they liked what the Labour councillors was doing they couldn't vote for us with Corbyn as leader.

    Meanwhile over on a Labour Facebook forum people ask how much we benefitted from all the new members (more asked to be unsubscribed from emails telling them about campaigning sessions than actually came out campaigning) and that "Tory lite" members would be pleased we lost (what they'd describe as "Tory lite" did most of the work)
    It's quite simple being a Corbynista: Labour win it's because Jeremy has re-energised the party (even though Oldham East, London mayoralty were obvious cases of 'despite, not because'); Labour lose it's because of the 'Blairite' opposition to Jeremy.

    Frankly, they're contemptible.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Well this just goes back to what my friend was saying, he doesn't know what to support any more because he wants an independent Scotland but doesn't want to join the EU. That isn't on the table. On the direct question of staying in the Union outside of the EU or going indepe and joining the EU, he would now choose the former option despite having voted Yes and Remain. The Apple decision has really hurt the perception of the EU among a certain group of younger voters IMO, especially those who come from smaller countries that are not as able to defend themselves like Ireland.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Yep. Tory nationally Labour locally voters went Tory. Other Labour voters stayed at home - and that was increasingly evident as we knocked them a 2nd time in the evening and were told "we'll go later". We even had Labour but staying home this time voters say that although they liked what the Labour councillors was doing they couldn't vote for us with Corbyn as leader.

    Meanwhile over on a Labour Facebook forum people ask how much we benefitted from all the new members (more asked to be unsubscribed from emails telling them about campaigning sessions than actually came out campaigning) and that "Tory lite" members would be pleased we lost (what they'd describe as "Tory lite" did most of the work)
    So sorry. The LP forum on FB offers heat, but no light. Best avoided.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    Morning all. We now have a very pleasing partition between Scottish parties. We just need one more (admittedly crazed) party for my inner Monica to be satisfied.

    SNP: Indy/EU
    Lab: Union/EU
    Tory: Union/Brexit
    ???: Indy/Brexit
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    edited September 2016
    John_M said:

    Morning all. We now have a very pleasing partition between Scottish parties. We just need one more (admittedly crazed) party for my inner Monica to be satisfied.

    SNP: Indy/EU
    Lab: Union/EU
    Tory: Union/Brexit
    ???: Indy/Brexit

    SKIP?

    Edit/ and wouldn't it be Sexit?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    IanB2 said:

    John_M said:

    Morning all. We now have a very pleasing partition between Scottish parties. We just need one more (admittedly crazed) party for my inner Monica to be satisfied.

    SNP: Indy/EU
    Lab: Union/EU
    Tory: Union/Brexit
    ???: Indy/Brexit

    SKIP?

    Edit/ and wouldn't it be Sexit?
    Ian, stop being so PB :).

    The last would have to be the Freeeeeeeeedom Party, with obligatory woad for all members.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Yep. Tory nationally Labour locally voters went Tory. Other Labour voters stayed at home - and that was increasingly evident as we knocked them a 2nd time in the evening and were told "we'll go later". We even had Labour but staying home this time voters say that although they liked what the Labour councillors was doing they couldn't vote for us with Corbyn as leader.

    Meanwhile over on a Labour Facebook forum people ask how much we benefitted from all the new members (more asked to be unsubscribed from emails telling them about campaigning sessions than actually came out campaigning) and that "Tory lite" members would be pleased we lost (what they'd describe as "Tory lite" did most of the work)
    So sorry. The LP forum on FB offers heat, but no light. Best avoided.
    bit like the Labour leadership.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Do you have access to the numbers?

    Ms Davidson is at 21, her highest level to date. The net rating is a point higher than that of Ms Sturgeon
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    John_M said:

    Morning all. We now have a very pleasing partition between Scottish parties. We just need one more (admittedly crazed) party for my inner Monica to be satisfied.

    SNP: Indy/EU
    Lab: Union/EU
    Tory: Union/Brexit
    ???: Indy/Brexit

    You also highlight the diminished voting pool SLAB are swimming in. With the LIBDEMs they share a block of circa 25% or less that are pro union and pro EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tim, on the Stockton result

    @GOsborneGenius: @britainelects If only there were more vegetarian homeopaths in marginal seats.

    This post sponsored by NewsSense™
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    54 No
    46 Yes

    Davidson +21
    Sturgeon +20
    Dugdale -17
    May +12
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    On topic, I suspect that 2017 is the right call and it may well be the first half. It should be next month - it's becoming increasingly obvious that the cut was premature; a reaction to partial data and that had the BoE waited, they'd have seen no reason to change them - but that would be politically embarrassing so they'll wait at least a few months.

    There is what to my mind is a better option of tightening monetary policy, namely withdrawing the QE already in the system, but I doubt the Bank will opt for that first.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,950
    SquareRoot said:

    Jonathan said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Yep. Tory nationally Labour locally voters went Tory. Other Labour voters stayed at home - and that was increasingly evident as we knocked them a 2nd time in the evening and were told "we'll go later". We even had Labour but staying home this time voters say that although they liked what the Labour councillors was doing they couldn't vote for us with Corbyn as leader.

    Meanwhile over on a Labour Facebook forum people ask how much we benefitted from all the new members (more asked to be unsubscribed from emails telling them about campaigning sessions than actually came out campaigning) and that "Tory lite" members would be pleased we lost (what they'd describe as "Tory lite" did most of the work)
    So sorry. The LP forum on FB offers heat, but no light. Best avoided.
    bit like the Labour leadership.
    Morning all,

    Probably a bit early to say this is how it will definitely play out across the country, but imho this is exactly what is going to happen. The Corbynista are not interested in the drudgery of campaigning. It is telling that Rochdale reports that the 'Tory-lite', presumably veteran members, did all the work.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    williamglenn said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    williamglenn said:

    Your own countrymen are more than able to fill the void and ensure our government continues to be conducted in a way that enrages you.

    I can't put it better than Sean T already has:

    "Life will not be perfect outside the EU. By any means. But from now on me and my fellow Britons can elect and dismiss the people who make these laws, and get them reversed if we so decide. We are a self governing nation again.

    Joy."
    And what if they don't? What if your fellow Britons reelect the establishment and you don't have the comfort blanket of believing that the modern world is some nefarious imposition from an outside power. You'll have to live with a constant sense of estrangement from your fellow countrymen.
    Because if they elect idiots then things will run into the ground and then they will see the errors of their ways and elect someone else at the five yearly election. Exactly the scenario you described happened in 1997, a charismatic narcissist gulled the people. It took a good few years for some of them to realise, but eventually they did and democracy ensured their removal with the party now not in a much better state than the East German Communist Party in 1990. Thats how democracy works and why electing your own government not having overseas bureacrats make laws is such a precious gift.

    You remainers really are clutching at straws. What a depressing time it must be for EU enthusiasts, but I'm sure there is an EU directive that still permits the sale of miniature violins.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    John_M said:

    IanB2 said:

    John_M said:

    Morning all. We now have a very pleasing partition between Scottish parties. We just need one more (admittedly crazed) party for my inner Monica to be satisfied.

    SNP: Indy/EU
    Lab: Union/EU
    Tory: Union/Brexit
    ???: Indy/Brexit

    SKIP?

    Edit/ and wouldn't it be Sexit?
    Ian, stop being so PB :).

    The last would have to be the Freeeeeeeeedom Party, with obligatory woad for all members.
    Surely woad is British not Scottish, despite Braveheart? After all, Caesar first spotted it and he landed in Kent. Or Sussex. Anyhow it wasn't Scotland.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, Braveheart is an excellent guide for what didn't happen.

    The woad is about a thousand years too late.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    SquareRoot said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
    I agree it is much lower. I expect the underlying Labour vote is circa 25%. The polls are as usual overstating Labour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    54 No
    46 Yes

    Davidson +21
    Sturgeon +20
    Dugdale -17
    May +12
    Isn't this just the flaw in asking whether people approve of the job that opposition politicians are doing? It's a question that can be approached from different angles, and not really a legitimate comparison with whether you approve or disapprove of someone running the Country? Both May and especially Sturgeon's ratings are very high for people actually in charge. Meanwhile I can approve of the job Corbyn is doing whilst standing back to admire all the damage.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    I've emailed the piece to Mike and he's tweeting them
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    edited September 2016
    david_herdson said:

    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.

    They could start by picking someone who sounds British, rather than pure Strine, if they want to increase empathy and support.

    But they don't think like that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    edited September 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, Braveheart is an excellent guide for what didn't happen.

    The woad is about a thousand years too late.

    There is a very professional looking website with all the lowdown on woad www.woad.org.uk
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. B2, I'm surprised hipsters haven't daubed themselves in it yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,950
    Casino_Royale said:

    david_herdson said:

    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.

    They could start by picking someone who sounds British, rather than pure Strine, if they want to increase empathy and support.

    But they don't think like that.
    Eh? Bennett is not in the running she's standing down. As far as I know there are no other Aussies in the running.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, I'm surprised hipsters haven't daubed themselves in it yet.

    :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.

    Time for Hunt to go full Reagan.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, I'm surprised hipsters haven't daubed themselves in it yet.

    The mail order woad kit is quite expensive, but does contain 10 grams of Woad pigment, 50 grams of Soda ash, 50 grams of Spectralite, one book of 20 pH indicator paper strips, and 2 hanks each of 100 grams (i.e. just under 8 oz in total) of high quality Double-Knit wool, together with full dyeing instructions. Now with economy FPP1 face mask.

    One assumes that the Britons were more technologically advanced than previously thought? I bet the Romans weren't able to do pH testing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Great night for the Tories. Holding all three seats in Dorset and winning oop norrrth.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, Braveheart is an excellent guide for what didn't happen.

    The woad is about a thousand years too late.

    Indeed...

    "And then there's the woad. If the original Wallace had actually smeared blue face paint all over himself everyone would have regarded him as just a little bit crazy. Woad was 1,000 years out of date by the time Gibson's character popped up on the scene. And you thought Downton Abbey's water bottle was bad."

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2014/08/29/braveheart-full-of-mistakes-which-make-scotland-look-better
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.

    Time for Hunt to go full Reagan.
    Docs on here seem to be going full Remoaner mode.

    Not about compromise; they want to be righteous. Smiling Jemimas need to be taught that middle class industrial disputes do not work.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Moses_ said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. B2, Braveheart is an excellent guide for what didn't happen.

    The woad is about a thousand years too late.

    Indeed...

    "And then there's the woad. If the original Wallace had actually smeared blue face paint all over himself everyone would have regarded him as just a little bit crazy. Woad was 1,000 years out of date by the time Gibson's character popped up on the scene. And you thought Downton Abbey's water bottle was bad."

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2014/08/29/braveheart-full-of-mistakes-which-make-scotland-look-better
    According to the aforementioned website, it was going strong in the Middle Ages and Tudor period, although as dye rather than face paint, and is the origin of the phrase 'as true as Coventry blue' although (Brexiters look away now) a lot of it was actually imported from Europe.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Do you have access to the numbers?

    Ms Davidson is at 21, her highest level to date. The net rating is a point higher than that of Ms Sturgeon
    It's the Scottish local elections in eight months. There has to be a strong chance that Con will end up with more councillors than Lab. Wouldn't have thought that possible given preference transfers until very recently.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. B2, highly priced makes it even more hipsterish.

    That said, I'd guess it's mostly used by re-enactors, enthusiastic LARPers and that sort of thing.

    Romans didn't mess about with pH nonsense or woad.

    Mr. Moses, an even better criticism is that Wallace was known as William the Briton, because he was a Brythonic [I think, Welsh, really] Celt from the now defunct Kingdom of the Rock.

    Whilst entertained by the long list of mistakes and idiocy involved in the film, I've not subjected myself to it on the grounds it would offend my eyes and may cause brain-rot.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    I can see the argument for the rate cut - things are not 100% and its the opposite of what I threatened to do..

    However the decision was made only 3 weeks after the previous meeting and nothing had changed. It would have been far better to wait until the September meeting when data was available and then done nothing.

    There are probably 2 things to note:-

    1) There is a benefit in hindsight and you do need to look at the data at the time to see why they did it.
    2) It means that rate rises (even just back to 0.5%) will have to be started far sooner than previously expected. I would expect first half 2017...
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TSE Has Fraser sent you a cheque for the idea behind today's article?
    He should.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/chancellor-osborne-lost-at-his-great-political-game-now-theresa/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
    I agree it is much lower. I expect the underlying Labour vote is circa 25%. The polls are as usual overstating Labour.
    25% to 30% is most likely, even in 1983 with a strong social democratic alternative and a hard left manifesto Labour got 27%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.

    Time for Hunt to go full Reagan.
    Docs on here seem to be going full Remoaner mode.

    Not about compromise; they want to be righteous. Smiling Jemimas need to be taught that middle class industrial disputes do not work.
    I think the NHS should get and does need more money, the population is aging after all. But it needs to go on hospitals, beds, staff numbers. Not pay.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    edited September 2016
    eek said:

    I can see the argument for the rate cut - things are not 100% and its the opposite of what I threatened to do..

    However the decision was made only 3 weeks after the previous meeting and nothing had changed. It would have been far better to wait until the September meeting when data was available and then done nothing.

    There are probably 2 things to note:-

    1) There is a benefit in hindsight and you do need to look at the data at the time to see why they did it.
    2) It means that rate rises (even just back to 0.5%) will have to be started far sooner than previously expected. I would expect first half 2017...

    It is NOT the opposite of what he threatened ...go check your facts, rather than recycling these Brexiter myths! Carney was clear before the ref that an exit vote would more likely lead to lower rates, at least initially.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Another poll shows record support for SNP , Tories stagnant and Labour moribund.
    New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    david_herdson said:

    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.

    While Corbyn leads Labour there is little need for the Greens anyway, most of their platform will be in the next Labour manifesto
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I can see the argument for the rate cut - things are not 100% and its the opposite of what I threatened to do..

    However the decision was made only 3 weeks after the previous meeting and nothing had changed. It would have been far better to wait until the September meeting when data was available and then done nothing.

    There are probably 2 things to note:-

    1) There is a benefit in hindsight and you do need to look at the data at the time to see why they did it.
    2) It means that rate rises (even just back to 0.5%) will have to be started far sooner than previously expected. I would expect first half 2017...

    It is NOT the opposite of what he threatened ...go check your facts, rather than recycling these Brexiter myths! Carney was clear before the ref that an exit vote would more likely lead to lower rates, at least initially.
    In which case he is just utterly incompetent as there was no justification to cut rates as shown by every piece of data since August 5th.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    HYUFD said:

    david_herdson said:

    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.

    While Corbyn leads Labour there is little need for the Greens anyway, most of their platform will be in the next Labour manifesto
    And most of their membership.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Though Stockton already has a Tory MP
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    54 No
    46 Yes

    Davidson +21
    Sturgeon +20
    Dugdale -17
    May +12
    Selective data , how unionist.
    New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, highly priced makes it even more hipsterish.

    That said, I'd guess it's mostly used by re-enactors, enthusiastic LARPers and that sort of thing.

    Romans didn't mess about with pH nonsense or woad.

    Mr. Moses, an even better criticism is that Wallace was known as William the Briton, because he was a Brythonic [I think, Welsh, really] Celt from the now defunct Kingdom of the Rock.

    Whilst entertained by the long list of mistakes and idiocy involved in the film, I've not subjected myself to it on the grounds it would offend my eyes and may cause brain-rot.

    As a PB regular I posit that you probably have immunity by now to those last two.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
    I agree it is much lower. I expect the underlying Labour vote is circa 25%. The polls are as usual overstating Labour.
    My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly. That might be UKIP or LDs or SDP2 or a combination of them. At the moment though, the LDs are moribund nationally, UKIP is beset by a leadership campaign and no Lab-like alternative exists.

    Worth noting Assem Allam's restatement yesterday of his offer to pump-prime a breakaway party if Corbyn is reelected:

    http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/update/2016-09-01/labour-donor-says-party-will-split-if-corbyn-wins-and-pledges-to-fund-a-breakaway-group/
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    SquareRoot said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    ... which is why I think the Labour GE vote in current polls is overstated, far more likely to be actually circa 23%
    I agree it is much lower. I expect the underlying Labour vote is circa 25%. The polls are as usual overstating Labour.
    25% to 30% is most likely, even in 1983 with a strong social democratic alternative and a hard left manifesto Labour got 27%
    But Foot was a patriot, the unions stronger and the country more left wing.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    L

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I think it made sense as a precautionary measure - it makes no sense to wait until risks have completely crystallised before acting, that's not intelligent central banking given the lags.

    Let's get down the road a few months before we complete the post mortem.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, highly priced makes it even more hipsterish.

    That said, I'd guess it's mostly used by re-enactors, enthusiastic LARPers and that sort of thing.

    Romans didn't mess about with pH nonsense or woad.

    Mr. Moses, an even better criticism is that Wallace was known as William the Briton, because he was a Brythonic [I think, Welsh, really] Celt from the now defunct Kingdom of the Rock.

    Whilst entertained by the long list of mistakes and idiocy involved in the film, I've not subjected myself to it on the grounds it would offend my eyes and may cause brain-rot.

    I can hardly blame you. Battle of Stirling Bridge ( castle) but no bridge or castle. The movie has them meeting in the local playing field in summer **

    ** the local council had by the time of the battle already removed the goalposts for the summer for painting and maintenance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do they want one after Britain leaves the EU?
    Despite the wishful thinking of the sad Scottish subregional Tories, it will be before the EU exit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
    Do you honestly think 0.25 pp makes a difference to how people behave? The bigger issue, in my opinion, is the QE. The government needs to get its house in order, it can't keep going to the magic money tree.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    54 No
    46 Yes

    Davidson +21
    Sturgeon +20
    Dugdale -17
    May +12
    Selective data , how unionist.
    New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/davidson-now-more-popular-sturgeon-scotland/

    52% for the SNP!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do they want one after Britain leaves the EU?
    Despite the wishful thinking of the sad Scottish subregional Tories, it will be before the EU exit.
    Lose another referendum? That will be hilarious!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited September 2016
    david_herdson said:

    My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly.

    Outside Scotland, there is no alternative available now or on the horizon. The LDs (8 seats) UKIP (1 seat) not only are ideologically different they offer absolutely nothing towards the goal of change of govt. The SDP2 is very unlikely IMO for the same reason.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
    Meanwhile corporate Britain has to fire hose cash into yawning pension deficits worsened by Carney's and his munchkins' antics. So that's not going on plant and machinery, or R&D or marketing in Asia, and all those with savings despair. Low interest rates have become the problem not the cure. Sorry but a bit of negative equity in London and the SE is going to be the required fallout from this eventually as we begin to unwind the huge bubbles we've been blowing in housing and bonds.

    As I said last night I think a nice bank branch in Medicine Hat would suit our current Governor. Suitably far away and isolated from screwing us up any more.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.

    Time for Hunt to go full Reagan.
    Docs on here seem to be going full Remoaner mode.

    Not about compromise; they want to be righteous. Smiling Jemimas need to be taught that middle class industrial disputes do not work.
    I think the NHS should get and does need more money, the population is aging after all. But it needs to go on hospitals, beds, staff numbers. Not pay.
    I thought they just got bunged another 2 or was it 3 billion last year. Either way what happens to this money it just seems to disappear into a massive black hole and the chorus of "we are underfunded and need more resources" just starts all over again.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    HYUFD said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide

    Though Stockton already has a Tory MP
    But it's a marginal ward in a marginal constituency - one of the most important by-elections to have come up in recent weeks. Every MP that Stockton South has returned since 1987 has supported the government of the day. Not since 1983, when the SDP beat Con by 102 votes in what was then a new seat, have they returned someone for the opposition.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
    Do you honestly think 0.25 pp makes a difference to how people behave? The bigger issue, in my opinion, is the QE. The government needs to get its house in order, it can't keep going to the magic money tree.
    I agree, QE is somewhat akin to chemotherapy that doesn't work. The sooner we get rid, the better.

    Don't however underestimate the psychological benefit of millions of mortgage payers getting a reduction in their monthly payments, however small, at a time when a lot of people were worried about the future.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    HYUFD said:

    david_herdson said:

    Let us not forget that the result of a party leadership election will be announced today, with a good chance that the Greens will announce a joint leadership, proving once again that they have no interest in doing politics seriously.

    While Corbyn leads Labour there is little need for the Greens anyway, most of their platform will be in the next Labour manifesto
    Indeed. Which you'd think would make it all the more important for them to have a strong voice as leader rather than doling the position out on a job-share basis.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,749
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
    It most definitely wasn't a consensus on here, a few people thought the, err, near perfect governor got it right but overall I think most posters saw it as an over reaction. I've seen that view replicated in the City as well, a few people thought it was the right course of action then, fewer think it is still the right course of action and want the QE curtailed in the next meeting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Another poll shows record support for SNP , Tories stagnant and Labour moribund.
    New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
    'Tories stagnant'? At 21%? That might represent little advance from May - indeed, it's a marginal decline - but set against the last twenty years, that share represents plateauing at a historically high level.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Moses_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Maternity unit shuts down as unable to fill junior doctor posts:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/nhs-hospital-becomes-the-first-to-shut-down-specialist-maternity/

    Its a 7 day NHS, just not a local one.

    Time for Hunt to go full Reagan.
    Docs on here seem to be going full Remoaner mode.

    Not about compromise; they want to be righteous. Smiling Jemimas need to be taught that middle class industrial disputes do not work.
    I think the NHS should get and does need more money, the population is aging after all. But it needs to go on hospitals, beds, staff numbers. Not pay.
    I thought they just got bunged another 2 or was it 3 billion last year. Either way what happens to this money it just seems to disappear into a massive black hole and the chorus of "we are underfunded and need more resources" just starts all over again.
    Well if the government caves into unions then it will forever more disappear down a black hole. Same with signing crap PFI contracts. But as a % of gdp we're still reasonably low - I think the NHS is actually pretty good at what it does - it does need another % of gdp spending on it though AND the waste tackling.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    [I]nterest rates pushed down to just one step away from zero in order to keep the plates spinning.

    Wrong! The rate was cut and more money printed because Carney wants to give the sense that the economy is crashing and that this is what you would do in those circumstances. The man is dangerous and should be removed from office asap.
    I refer you to the discussion on PB last week. Your view is an outlier.
    @tlg86 takes it too far, but I have yet to meet anyone who thinks the rate cut was a good idea
    I don't think it was a good idea myself, viewed strictly in terms of economic logic. But the consensus on here last week was somewhere between "there were signs of a wobble and the cut settled everything down and kept people spending" and "people were expecting it and after one deferral another could have been an unwelcome surprise/shock". So more psychology than economics. As ever the difficulty is in knowing how the alternative universe with the opposite decision might look.
    Do you honestly think 0.25 pp makes a difference to how people behave? The bigger issue, in my opinion, is the QE. The government needs to get its house in order, it can't keep going to the magic money tree.
    I agree, QE is somewhat akin to chemotherapy that doesn't work. The sooner we get rid, the better.

    Don't however underestimate the psychological benefit of millions of mortgage payers getting a reduction in their monthly payments, however small, at a time when a lot of people were worried about the future.
    Take my sister, for example, she got on to a fixed rate deal about a year ago thinking that sooner or later rates would have to start to rise. She has felt no benefit of the cut and in fact she has some savings in a Santander 123 account which is having its rate cut in half.

    For too long this country has danced to the tune of borrowers. Eventually the house of cards will come crashing down.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    Scottish Tory Surge KLAXON

    Scots do not want another referendum on independence before Britain leaves the EU — and would vote “no” if one were held, according to a Times poll.

    The results are published on the morning of Nicola Sturgeon’s fresh push for separation.

    In a stunning shift, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, now has a higher net personal approval rating than Ms Sturgeon, the SNP leader.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/scots-against-independence-and-another-vote-poll-reveals-8nr86c3fp

    Do you have access to the numbers?
    54 No
    46 Yes

    Davidson +21
    Sturgeon +20
    Dugdale -17
    May +12
    Selective data , how unionist.
    New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/davidson-now-more-popular-sturgeon-scotland/

    52% for the SNP!
    It is great to see how the useless unionist media interpret data. They are ever optimistic in their views, if only life were like that and losers were actually winners.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Jonathan said:

    david_herdson said:

    My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly.

    Outside Scotland, there is no alternative available now or on the horizon. The LDs (8 seats) UKIP (1 seat) not only are ideologically different they offer absolutely nothing towards the goal of change of govt. The SDP2 is very unlikely IMO for the same reason.
    For as long as Corbyn is unelectable, Labour offers nothing towards the goal of a change of government either. The LDs and UKIP are undeniably ideologically different but that ideology still overlaps with fair-sized chunks of what has historically been Labour support.
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