Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My birth name is John McDonnell. It's made for an interesting life recently.
Unlike some of my fellow LEAVE supporters, I'm much less sanguine about the economic data. Riding the emotional wave from one PMI to the next is a bit like going from one poll to the next. If it makes you feel good, fine, but don't expect anything meaningful from it.
We know there was the economic equivalent of a sharp intake of breath in the immediate pre and post-Referendum periods. Mrs Stodge tells me from her vantage point in the City that any number of projects were put on hold pending the referendum result.
The uncertainty wasn't just the result but that we were in uncharted waters. The immediate and savage devaluation of sterling (for all that some waxed lyrical about a 1 cent "jump" the other day, the fact remains sterling has still lost 15 cents on the dollar which is enormous)has had an immediate benefit for exporters but the longer term inflationary risk remains and there are signs inflation will return to the UK economy during next year.
Yet the result itself didn't lead to an immediate triggering of Article 50. In fact, rather like Y2K, nothing has happened at all and that has led to a huge exhalation of economic breath. Life has re-started but I suspect within that is a desire to spend, to get things done before Article 50 is invoked, before the negotiations start and the true picture (as distinct from the euphoric idyll portrayed in the Mail and Express) becomes clearer.
This will reflect in economic activity but hasn't been happened by the fall in interest rates which was a serious mistake and the markets remain addicted to QE and there will be a price when forced to go cold turkey.
ONS Oliver & Amelia were the most popular names for babies born in England & Wales in 2015 https://t.co/dn53Rcwbpm #babynames
There were 4 new entries in the top 100 most popular boys’ names in 2015 for England and Wales: Jaxon, Roman, Reggie and Carter. These replaced Owen, Robert, Joey and Finlay which were in the top 100 in 2014. Within the boys’ top 100, Jaxon showed the largest rise, up 35 places to number 80. Kian, down 44 places to number 98, showed the largest fall.
There were 6 new entries in the top 100 most popular girls’ names in 2015: Penelope, Mila, Clara, Arabella, Maddison and Aria. These replaced Lydia, Faith, Mollie, Brooke, Isabel and Amy. Within the girls’ top 100, Aria showed the largest rise, gaining 70 places to number 100. Katie, down 22 places to number 99, showed the largest fall.
The ONS Visual site is good for this sort of thing:
Where on Earth does Jaxon and Roman come from? When I was little - there was a glut of Samanthas after Bewitched.
Roman might have something to do with European migrants. The only Roman I can think of is the footballer Roman Neustädter.
Polanski, Abramovitch? Not sure I'd want to name kids after either, mind
I wasn't thinking of naming after someone, more where that name is popular. It seems a popular name in Russia - not that they're in the EU, of course.
The fashions for names is really weird. In my class during the 70s/80s I'd two Fionas, three Helens, three Alisons and four Joannas. All my male friends were called Mark, David or Andrew.
There is a US website that tracks names over time - just put in film stars names and see all the "Norma"s, "Joan"s and so forth peak in the '30s....
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My birth name is John McDonnell. It's made for an interesting life recently.
The worst option is to have the same name of an unpopular or infamous celeb/politician. Sadly that is impossible to predict.
I know an old chap called Alan Partridge. For the first sixty years of his life, blissful normality. Then twenty years of "aha".
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Well if I were you I would shut up. Who knows, things might go a bit pear shaped in a couple of months. Whilst that too may have nothing to do with Brexit, you might look/feel a bit daft.
Another poll shows record support for SNP , Tories stagnant and Labour moribund. New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
'Tories stagnant'? At 21%? That might represent little advance from May - indeed, it's a marginal decline - but set against the last twenty years, that share represents plateauing at a historically high level.
Though it perhaps also indicates the limitations of a personally popular leader at the head of mediocre to crap elected representatives (and a hotchpotch of ever changing policies to boot).
Tory support is consistently underestimated in polls tho. The Scottish Parliament polls had them at around 18% and SNP at 50%. Let's wait and see in 2017 local elections.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Well if I were you I would shut up. Who knows, things might go a bit pear shaped in a couple of months. Whilst that too may have nothing to do with Brexit, you might look/feel a bit daft.
If they do go pear-shaped, it won't be Sean T's fault. It never is. I used to be just like that myself -when I was a toddler...
ONS Oliver & Amelia were the most popular names for babies born in England & Wales in 2015 https://t.co/dn53Rcwbpm #babynames
There were 4 new entries in the top 100 most popular boys’ names in 2015 for England and Wales: Jaxon, Roman, Reggie and Carter. These replaced Owen, Robert, Joey and Finlay which were in the top 100 in 2014. Within the boys’ top 100, Jaxon showed the largest rise, up 35 places to number 80. Kian, down 44 places to number 98, showed the largest fall.
There were 6 new entries in the top 100 most popular girls’ names in 2015: Penelope, Mila, Clara, Arabella, Maddison and Aria. These replaced Lydia, Faith, Mollie, Brooke, Isabel and Amy. Within the girls’ top 100, Aria showed the largest rise, gaining 70 places to number 100. Katie, down 22 places to number 99, showed the largest fall.
The ONS Visual site is good for this sort of thing:
Where on Earth does Jaxon and Roman come from? When I was little - there was a glut of Samanthas after Bewitched.
Roman might have something to do with European migrants. The only Roman I can think of is the footballer Roman Neustädter.
Polanski, Abramovitch? Not sure I'd want to name kids after either, mind
I wasn't thinking of naming after someone, more where that name is popular. It seems a popular name in Russia - not that they're in the EU, of course.
The fashions for names is really weird. In my class during the 70s/80s I'd two Fionas, three Helens, three Alisons and four Joannas. All my male friends were called Mark, David or Andrew.
I've checked the names of my pets.
Our two female rabbits, Millie & May both feature.
Stagnant polls leave SNP becalmed and scrabbling for Brexit discards
Instead of leading a campaign for independence, Ms Sturgeon could find herself in the coming months scrabbling for scraps from Theresa May’s unionist table.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Well if I were you I would shut up. Who knows, things might go a bit pear shaped in a couple of months. Whilst that too may have nothing to do with Brexit, you might look/feel a bit daft.
Let's nobody take a position on anything then, lest we look silly.
4 weeks ago these same PMI readings were evidence that the experts were right and the economy was seriously suffering. Now it's simply too early to say.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Well if I were you I would shut up. Who knows, things might go a bit pear shaped in a couple of months. Whilst that too may have nothing to do with Brexit, you might look/feel a bit daft.
Triumphalism will fade, as will the petulance from the 'losers'. Doubtless, we'll all discover that Brexit is a bit like having a nose job, pleasing but you're still you after the op. If that makes sense!
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Well if I were you I would shut up. Who knows, things might go a bit pear shaped in a couple of months. Whilst that too may have nothing to do with Brexit, you might look/feel a bit daft.
Who knows? indeed. Certainly you don't.
But I'm afraid it was your side who relentlessly argued the certainty of an immediate sharp economic downturn if there was a LEAVE vote, and engaged a legion of so-called experts to back that up.
You can't retreat from that now, however much you might wish to.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
Stagnant polls leave SNP becalmed and scrabbling for Brexit discards
Instead of leading a campaign for independence, Ms Sturgeon could find herself in the coming months scrabbling for scraps from Theresa May’s unionist table.
Salmond was something special, he could defy political gravity, Sturgeon isn't and can't.
Agreed.
Sturgeon is now in a hugely difficult position. Scots don't want a referendum. If she calls one she will very likely lose. The Gers figures are too grim. They've no answer to the currency question. The EU question has got WORSE since Brexit.
But if she doesn't call a referendum now the Nats won't get another chance for a long long time, as their popularity inevitably recedes. So she might split the party by annoying her fundamentalists. .
Indeed. The bottom line is that Sindy makes fuck all sense. Those whose political raison d'etre is a bunch of bollocks pretty much always get called out by the ever wise voting public.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Donald Tusk: "Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation"
That is so stupid and funny.
It's been an amazing year for hyperbole and WTFery statements. Opportunities to wonder what's parody vs reality were rare occasions - nowadays, I honestly can't tell most of the time.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Donald Tusk: "Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation"
That is so stupid and funny.
I think it'll be over at best by Christmas 2040. Some of us will no longer be around to read Political Betting, I may be past caring (87!)
If all Queen's Speeches in the next few years are full of BREXIT it'll cause Parliamentary indigestion. Continuing to pass desirable new legislation should be the policy, while background negotiations continue on EU withdrawal; i.e. take our time.
This isn't disguising Remain as Leave. It's a slow reversion to something like the EEC or EFTA which the UK population were extremely content with. If UKIP object, they can sod off. 52/48% was at the best a mandate for a compromise between the extremes which will satisfy a majority and only piss off the minorities at both ends of the spectrum (e.g., Bill Cash and Michael Heseltine).
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Unlike some of my fellow LEAVE supporters, I'm much less sanguine about the economic data. Riding the emotional wave from one PMI to the next is a bit like going from one poll to the next. If it makes you feel good, fine, but don't expect anything meaningful from it.
We know there was the economic equivalent of a sharp intake of breath in the immediate pre and post-Referendum periods. Mrs Stodge tells me from her vantage point in the City that any number of projects were put on hold pending the referendum result.
The uncertainty wasn't just the result but that we were in uncharted waters. The immediate and savage devaluation of sterling (for all that some waxed lyrical about a 1 cent "jump" the other day, the fact remains sterling has still lost 15 cents on the dollar which is enormous)has had an immediate benefit for exporters but the longer term inflationary risk remains and there are signs inflation will return to the UK economy during next year.
Yet the result itself didn't lead to an immediate triggering of Article 50. In fact, rather like Y2K, nothing has happened at all and that has led to a huge exhalation of economic breath. Life has re-started but I suspect within that is a desire to spend, to get things done before Article 50 is invoked, before the negotiations start and the true picture (as distinct from the euphoric idyll portrayed in the Mail and Express) becomes clearer.
This will reflect in economic activity but hasn't been happened by the fall in interest rates which was a serious mistake and the markets remain addicted to QE and there will be a price when forced to go cold turkey.
My way of thinking is that we will never really know. I suspect that Brexit will depress GDP and tax take for a number of years, at least, but it will not be noticeable - it will be more a case of what might have been - there will be less public spending and some higher taxes. but it will all be pretty manageable. We are not going to notice much difference. I am not sure whether that will make people happy or sad.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Yep - I got stuck with Joff as a kid because my younger brother could not pronounce my name properly (he called me Joffertan) and that has been that. I hate him.
Another poll shows record support for SNP , Tories stagnant and Labour moribund. New YouGov poll in Times: SNP 50%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 15.5%, Green 6%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%. Indy Y46 N54.
'Tories stagnant'? At 21%? That might represent little advance from May - indeed, it's a marginal decline - but set against the last twenty years, that share represents plateauing at a historically high level.
David if that is success then Tories are easily pleased. It is just a tussle among them and Labour to be best loser, also rans.
Not that long ago, the SNP would have been more than happy with 21%. Given the leadership ratings from the latest poll - with May ahead of Corbyn and Davidson ahead of Dugdale with Scottish Labour supporters, never mind the electorate at large, there's probably scope to grow that share.
The target for the next 12 months ought now to be to have more councillors elected next May than Labour. i don't think many would regard that aim as lacking in ambition. Sure, it's still 'first loser' spot (though not on some councils it won't be), but to aspire to first, first you have to consolidate second.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Yep - I got stuck with Joff as a kid because my younger brother could not pronounce my name properly (he called me Joffertan) and that has been that. I hate him.
I was Paddy right through school and university and only became Patrick when I started work. I kind of miss the informality and affection of Paddy. Patrick seems a bit formal. I like the rare occasions when I reconnect with old school / uni friends as they still call me Paddy.
My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly.
Outside Scotland, there is no alternative available now or on the horizon. The LDs (8 seats) UKIP (1 seat) not only are ideologically different they offer absolutely nothing towards the goal of change of govt. The SDP2 is very unlikely IMO for the same reason.
For as long as Corbyn is unelectable, Labour offers nothing towards the goal of a change of government either. The LDs and UKIP are undeniably ideologically different but that ideology still overlaps with fair-sized chunks of what has historically been Labour support.
Regardless of leader, Labour are several orders of magnitude more likely to form a national government than either the LDs or UKIP. Not only that, Labour run London and control large areas of local government.
If you are serious about government and oppose the Tories, Labour are the only game in town.
Labour is not serious about government at the moment. The question is whether they can find a way to be serious in the future. Many, like yourself or SO, are hanging on in the hope or expectation that the Corbyn hysteria will pass and sense will eventually prevail before the damage done is permanent. Perhaps it will but perhaps not.
As for 'several orders of magnitude': no. Parties don't have a divine right to exist and Labour are playing fast and loose with their position as a government-forming party. As you rightly say, in England, there is no alternative to the Tories at a national level but the key words there are 'at the moment'. Until recently, Labour was the natural vehicle to oppose the Tories in Scotland (remember the 'Tartan Tories' jibe?), and then they were the natural vehicle to oppose the SNP. Things change with poor management.
10/1 for a rate rise this year is very decent in my view. The BoE has to balance the risk of inflation against the risk of recession. In July they decided a post-Brexit recession was a greater immediate threat than excessive inflation. Post-Brexit inflation of a couple of percentage points will come shortly. The BoE will raise rates if they think the immediate threat of a recession has receded.
On Brexit and Scotland. We have had four years of constitutional wrangling. I think most people will want to move on to other things now. So no short term risk of a break in the Union, but Brexit does, I think, store up problems for the future. Brexit will be an exercise in damage limitation and spin. Theresa May might be able to present whatever comes out as a success in E&W, but it won't play in Scotland where people voted against in large numbers.
The SNP's position as the Fianna Fail of Scotland is assured. It will be the dominant party pitching to rightwingers like our Malcolm as well as unreconstructed communists with a vague pro-Scottishness. It won't have any policies because any particular policy will upset one faction of the Party or the other. In any case they are not really interested. As with Fianna Fail, the SNP is likely to lapse into cronyism - that environment will encourage it. The opposition will be limited to trying to deny the SNP a majority and at some point scratching together a coalition.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly.
Outside Scotland, there is no alternative available now or on the horizon. The LDs (8 seats) UKIP (1 seat) not only are ideologically different they offer absolutely nothing towards the goal of change of govt. The SDP2 is very unlikely IMO for the same reason.
For as long as Corbyn is unelectable, Labour offers nothing towards the goal of a change of government either. The LDs and UKIP are undeniably ideologically different but that ideology still overlaps with fair-sized chunks of what has historically been Labour support.
Regardless of leader, Labour are several orders of magnitude more likely to form a national government than either the LDs or UKIP. Not only that, Labour run London and control large areas of local government.
If you are serious about government and oppose the Tories, Labour are the only game in town.
Labour is not serious about government at the moment. The question is whether they can find a way to be serious in the future. Many, like yourself or SO, are hanging on in the hope or expectation that the Corbyn hysteria will pass and sense will eventually prevail before the damage done is permanent. Perhaps it will but perhaps not.
As for 'several orders of magnitude': no. Parties don't have a divine right to exist and Labour are playing fast and loose with their position as a government-forming party. As you rightly say, in England, there is no alternative to the Tories at a national level but the key words there are 'at the moment'. Until recently, Labour was the natural vehicle to oppose the Tories in Scotland (remember the 'Tartan Tories' jibe?), and then they were the natural vehicle to oppose the SNP. Things change with poor management.
Sure things can change. But right now and for the foreseeable future Labour are the best bet both ideologically and in terms of capability to win.
In terms of HoC seats, Labour are two orders of magnitude ahead of either the LibDems and UKIP. There is no one else.
Maybe Tusk is right. Maybe Brexit will destroy the CURRENT version of political civilisation. Maybe it will usher in a move away from 'liberal' lefty de-haut-en-bas paternalist contempt for the voter. Maybe nation states will reassert themselves. Maybe elite bureaucracies won't be quite so elite or remote in future.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Yep - I got stuck with Joff as a kid because my younger brother could not pronounce my name properly (he called me Joffertan) and that has been that. I hate him.
I have a friend called "Grub". An amusing nickname when he was 15 at school. Less amusing now he is 53. But he's stuck with it.
My paternal grandmother was called 'Gaga' as thats what her first grandchild could pronounce.
While amusing in her forties, I'm not sure she appreciate so much later in life.....
If Nicola ever gets Scotland to join the EU as an independent nation it will be quite appropriate to fly the German flag. She will have joined the Fourth Reich.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Yep - I got stuck with Joff as a kid because my younger brother could not pronounce my name properly (he called me Joffertan) and that has been that. I hate him.
I have a friend called "Grub". An amusing nickname when he was 15 at school. Less amusing now he is 53. But he's stuck with it.
My paternal grandmother was called 'Gaga' as thats what her first grandchild could pronounce.
While amusing in her forties, I'm not sure she appreciate so much later in life.....
There was a vox-pop on the radio a while back, and one of the people being interviewed was asked his name.
"Biggles".
No, c'mon, said the reporter, not your nickname - your real name.
"Biggles."
Turned out his parents had allowed his brother and sister to name him. And that's what they wanted. Biggles. So that's what he got. Biggles.
I see Labour got beaten badly in Stockton.. So much for Corbyn using local election result to boost him as leader.. Expect more of this type of result if Corbyn is re-elected. Labour voters will not vote Labour, only the die-hard lefties will. #electoralsuicide
Though Stockton already has a Tory MP
But it's a marginal ward in a marginal constituency - one of the most important by-elections to have come up in recent weeks. Every MP that Stockton South has returned since 1987 has supported the government of the day. Not since 1983, when the SDP beat Con by 102 votes in what was then a new seat, have they returned someone for the opposition.
Corbyn will not make virtually any gains in 2020 but I can't see Labour falling below 150 to 200 seats under FPTP either i.e. the same number the Tories got from 1997 to 2005
The question to consider in thinking about that scenario might be "who but Labour could win Hemsworth"?
Solid construction figures, I had it pencilled in at 48.5 after yesterday's surprise, so the end figure beat my optimistic forecast as well. I still did better than the City forecast of 46.1 and our forecast of 45.9, as ever I'm waiting for a reaction from our good friend Mr Tombs before I make my mind up on how awful this is for the economy and why this means the people are all stupid.
Stagnant polls leave SNP becalmed and scrabbling for Brexit discards
Instead of leading a campaign for independence, Ms Sturgeon could find herself in the coming months scrabbling for scraps from Theresa May’s unionist table.
Salmond was something special, he could defy political gravity, Sturgeon isn't and can't.
Agreed.
Sturgeon is now in a hugely difficult position. Scots don't want a referendum. If she calls one she will very likely lose. The Gers figures are too grim. They've no answer to the currency question. The EU question has got WORSE since Brexit.
But if she doesn't call a referendum now the Nats won't get another chance for a long long time, as their popularity inevitably recedes. So she might split the party by annoying her fundamentalists. .
Indeed. The bottom line is that Sindy makes fuck all sense. Those whose political raison d'etre is a bunch of bollocks pretty much always get called out by the ever wise voting public.
True, independence doesn't make a lot of sense for Scotland. However Brexit doesn't make a lot of sense for the UK, but we still voted for it. We're not always rational people. Independence will happen if 51% vote for it, just like Brexit. Right now support is at 46% in the most unfavourable circumstances possible.
My guess would be that a largish part of what's currently identified as Lab in the national polls (a quarter or so?) is extremely flaky and were a better opposition home available, would migrate quickly.
Outside Scotland, there is no alternative available now or on the horizon. The LDs (8 seats) UKIP (1 seat) not only are ideologically different they offer absolutely nothing towards the goal of change of govt. The SDP2 is very unlikely IMO for the same reason.
For as long as Corbyn is unelectable, Labour offers nothing towards the goal of a change of government either. The LDs and UKIP are undeniably ideologically different but that ideology still overlaps with fair-sized chunks of what has historically been Labour support.
Regardless of leader, Labour are several orders of magnitude more likely to form a national government than either the LDs or UKIP. Not only that, Labour run London and control large areas of local government.
If you are serious about government and oppose the Tories, Labour are the only game in town.
Labour is not serious about government at the moment. The question is whether they can find a way to be serious in the future. Many, like yourself or SO, are hanging on in the hope or expectation that the Corbyn hysteria will pass and sense will eventually prevail before the damage done is permanent. Perhaps it will but perhaps not.
As for 'several orders of magnitude': no. Parties don't have a divine right to exist and Labour are playing fast and loose with their position as a government-forming party. As you rightly say, in England, there is no alternative to the Tories at a national level but the key words there are 'at the moment'. Until recently, Labour was the natural vehicle to oppose the Tories in Scotland (remember the 'Tartan Tories' jibe?), and then they were the natural vehicle to oppose the SNP. Things change with poor management.
Sure things can change. But right now and for the foreseeable future Labour are the best bet both ideologically and in terms of capability to win.
In terms of HoC seats, Labour are two orders of magnitude ahead of either the LibDems and UKIP. There is no one else.
They're closer (just) to one order of magnitude ahead of the Lib Dems. Log10 of 232/8 is 1.48.
If Nicola ever gets Scotland to join the EU as an independent nation it will be quite appropriate to fly the German flag. She will have joined the Fourth Reich.
I imagine a few Nats would think she looked quite fetching in that uniform
.....most No voters have a stronger commitment to the Union with the rest of the UK than to the European Union headquartered in Brussels.
The SNP need to focus instead on persuading more voters that the case for independence makes economic sense.
In March this year - when the SNP envisaged Scotland would have become independent if it had voted Yes two years ago - as many as 49% said that they thought Scotland would now be worse off financially if it had voted for independence. Just 22% thought it would be better off.
Crucially, amongst those who voted No in September 2014 only 5% felt the country would now be better off, while as many as 81% reckoned it would be worse off.
Maybe Tusk is right. Maybe Brexit will destroy the CURRENT version of political civilisation. Maybe it will usher in a move away from 'liberal' lefty de-haut-en-bas paternalist contempt for the voter. Maybe nation states will reassert themselves. Maybe elite bureaucracies won't be quite so elite or remote in future.
I do hope so.
During my lifetime we've seen shifts away from unions dominating/nationalisation, centralisation of power - and back again a bit, pretty free speech to hate crimes for wolf whistling or being rude to Tom Daley on Twitter, never hearing a Muslim moaning from one year to the next to it being almost daily, experts everywhere telling us what to eat/think/drink/vote...
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
If you were christened Jonathan surely Jon is the 'natural' foreshortening ?
Yep - I got stuck with Joff as a kid because my younger brother could not pronounce my name properly (he called me Joffertan) and that has been that. I hate him.
I have a friend called "Grub". An amusing nickname when he was 15 at school. Less amusing now he is 53. But he's stuck with it.
Yep, I am stuck with mine. It would be ridiculous to change. I mostly get called Jeff or Josh anyway. I answer to anything that begins with a J or soft G.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Donald Tusk: "Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation"
That is so stupid and funny.
That is to mistake symptom and cause. The actions of some Western politicians could ultimately destroy western civilisation; Brexit is one response to those actions.
If Nicola ever gets Scotland to join the EU as an independent nation it will be quite appropriate to fly the German flag. She will have joined the Fourth Reich.
Yep, I am stuck with mine. It would be ridiculous to change. I mostly get called Jeff or Josh anyway. I answer to anything that begins with a J or soft G.
I understand that they have you down as Jeremiah on your Labour Party membership....
"The great prophet Jeremiah lived during the most crucial period of Judah's existence as a kingdom. He saw the destruction of Jerusalem and the holy Temple, after he had incessantly warned his people to mend their ways before it was too late. And when the catastrophe finally overwhelmed his people, he was the one who bitterly lamented Israel's terrible fate in the Book of Echah (Lamentations) which we read on Tisha B'Av, the anniversary of that catastrophe.
At the same time, he proved to be a true friend in need, by helping his stricken people to bear the blow with courage and dignity, and by pointing out to them the path that would lead to restoration and redemption."
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
I have gone over the past 20 years from being a known expert on the internet to being invisible behind a TV journalist and a senior Partner is a West Coast venture capital firm with the same name...
One reason the latter got his first job in that industry was a level of confusion between what he did and what I had done which made him look online far more experienced than he actually was...
Mind you the fact I hardly do any social media really does help on the invisibility stakes...
If Nicola ever gets Scotland to join the EU as an independent nation it will be quite appropriate to fly the German flag. She will have joined the Fourth Reich.
Just a query. Do you really believe that?
Be gentle, this is what passes for razor sharp satire amongst the waaycist, 'Dave the Terrorist' brigade.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
I have gone over the past 20 years from being a known expert on the internet to being invisible behind a TV journalist and a senior Partner is a West Coast venture capital firm with the same name...
One reason the latter got his first job in that industry was a level of confusion between what he did and what I had done which made him look online far more experienced than he actually was...
Mind you the fact I hardly do any social media really does help on the invisibility stakes...
Disappearing behind the Iron Curtain that is Cheltenham was very useful for preserving anonymity. They belatedly realised that it looked odd that no one had Facebook/Twitter etc accounts, and relaxed the rules.
Ironically, outsiders completely misinterpreted what 'mastering the Internet' meant. It was a reaction to the fact that as mobiles & social media were banned, most of the employees didn't have a scoobies about the modern 'net, and in terms of Internet savvy were effectively 80 years old.
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
I have gone over the past 20 years from being a known expert on the internet to being invisible behind a TV journalist and a senior Partner is a West Coast venture capital firm with the same name...
One reason the latter got his first job in that industry was a level of confusion between what he did and what I had done which made him look online far more experienced than he actually was...
Mind you the fact I hardly do any social media really does help on the invisibility stakes...
Disappearing behind the Iron Curtain that is Cheltenham was very useful for preserving anonymity. They belatedly realised that it looked odd that no one had Facebook/Twitter etc accounts, and relaxed the rules.
Ironically, outsiders completely misinterpreted what 'mastering the Internet' meant. It was a reaction to the fact that as mobiles & social media were banned, most of the employees didn't have a scoobies about the modern 'net, and in terms of Internet savvy were effectively 80 years old.
I do find it hilarious how many people with security clearance find it essential to include it on their linked in profile....
Still can't make up my mind whether in the Internet age it's an advantage to have a unique name that means you are instantly discoverable or something that gives you the option to hide in the crowd.
My name means I cannot hide. I was christened Jonathan, but have ended up with Joff - which I absolutely hate. I wish I was a Jon, I really do.
I have gone over the past 20 years from being a known expert on the internet to being invisible behind a TV journalist and a senior Partner is a West Coast venture capital firm with the same name...
One reason the latter got his first job in that industry was a level of confusion between what he did and what I had done which made him look online far more experienced than he actually was...
Mind you the fact I hardly do any social media really does help on the invisibility stakes...
Disappearing behind the Iron Curtain that is Cheltenham was very useful for preserving anonymity. They belatedly realised that it looked odd that no one had Facebook/Twitter etc accounts, and relaxed the rules.
Ironically, outsiders completely misinterpreted what 'mastering the Internet' meant. It was a reaction to the fact that as mobiles & social media were banned, most of the employees didn't have a scoobies about the modern 'net, and in terms of Internet savvy were effectively 80 years old.
I do find it hilarious how many people with security clearance find it essential to include it on their linked in profile....
No point in hiring a contractor who's not DV'ed, even with fast track. SC clearance is usually straightforward.
‘25,000 pieces of abuse since last June with 20,000 of those over a 12 hr period’ – And now Police are investigating anti-Semitic and homophobic online abuse targeting the MP.
Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably?
‘25,000 pieces of abuse since last June with 20,000 of those over a 12 hr period’ – And now Police are investigating anti-Semitic and homophobic online abuse targeting the MP.
Yet Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably.
Not overrun, but those they have are incredibly industrious. All hail our glorious world-beating anti-semites.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
Donald Tusk: "Brexit could destroy Western political civilisation"
That is so stupid and funny.
That is to mistake symptom and cause. The actions of some Western politicians could ultimately destroy western civilisation; Brexit is one response to those actions.
That's an interesting comment by your good self.
Would you care to expand on your meaning at all, with examples?
Unlike some of my fellow LEAVE supporters, I'm much less sanguine about the economic data. Riding the emotional wave from one PMI to the next is a bit like going from one poll to the next. If it makes you feel good, fine, but don't expect anything meaningful from it.
We know there was the economic equivalent of a sharp intake of breath in the immediate pre and post-Referendum periods. Mrs Stodge tells me from her vantage point in the City that any number of projects were put on hold pending the referendum result.
The uncertainty wasn't just the result but that we were in uncharted waters. The immediate and savage devaluation of sterling (for all that some waxed lyrical about a 1 cent "jump" the other day, the fact remains sterling has still lost 15 cents on the dollar which is enormous)has had an immediate benefit for exporters but the longer term inflationary risk remains and there are signs inflation will return to the UK economy during next year.
Yet the result itself didn't lead to an immediate triggering of Article 50. In fact, rather like Y2K, nothing has happened at all and that has led to a huge exhalation of economic breath. Life has re-started but I suspect within that is a desire to spend, to get things done before Article 50 is invoked, before the negotiations start and the true picture (as distinct from the euphoric idyll portrayed in the Mail and Express) becomes clearer.
This will reflect in economic activity but hasn't been happened by the fall in interest rates which was a serious mistake and the markets remain addicted to QE and there will be a price when forced to go cold turkey.
My way of thinking is that we will never really know. I suspect that Brexit will depress GDP and tax take for a number of years, at least, but it will not be noticeable - it will be more a case of what might have been - there will be less public spending and some higher taxes. but it will all be pretty manageable. We are not going to notice much difference. I am not sure whether that will make people happy or sad.
Has anyone got a link to the precise phrase Corbyn said when he became leader, he said something like making Scotland his first priority or something. Ta
‘25,000 pieces of abuse since last June with 20,000 of those over a 12 hr period’ – And now Police are investigating anti-Semitic and homophobic online abuse targeting the MP.
Yet Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably.
Not overrun, but those they have are incredibly industrious. All hail our glorious world-beating anti-semites.
It's weird how Leavers are celebrating that Brexit has had zero negative impact when it hasn't even happened yet.
They might as well say it will all be over by Christmas.
I think we're in the phoney war, and negotiations will be tough, but we will emerge out the other side and then all can move on.
I expect uncertainty to last pretty much until 2020, but May will want to sew it up so she campaign on a Brexit 'done deal' for GE2020.
That would allow her to put forward an attractive programme of domestic reform for the 2020-2025 parliament, which I suspect is her true passion anyway.
‘25,000 pieces of abuse since last June with 20,000 of those over a 12 hr period’ – And now Police are investigating anti-Semitic and homophobic online abuse targeting the MP.
Yet Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably.
Not overrun, but those they have are incredibly industrious. All hail our glorious world-beating anti-semites.
Ram packed.
I like it.
"I'm on the Labour train today, and, as you can see, it's ram-packed with Jew-hating misogynists. The government needs to do something."
Has anyone got a link to the precise phrase Corbyn said when he became leader, he said something like making Scotland his first priority or something. Ta
Recovery for SLab was one of his priorities afaicr.
Edit: Top priority in fact.
'Corbyn puts Scottish recovery top of his '10 priorities' for Labour leadership'
Has anyone got a link to the precise phrase Corbyn said when he became leader, he said something like making Scotland his first priority or something. Ta
Recovery for SLab was one of his priorities afaicr.
Edit: Top priority in fact.
'Corbyn puts Scottish recovery top of his '10 priorities' for Labour leadership'
Has anyone got a link to the precise phrase Corbyn said when he became leader, he said something like making Scotland his first priority or something. Ta
So, the fight back now of our party gathers speed and gathers pace. I am delighted that Kezia Dugdale is here today, our leader in Scotland. We are all going to be campaigning in Scotland, for Labour in Scotland, for those great traditions, those great Labour traditions in Scotland.
Has anyone got a link to the precise phrase Corbyn said when he became leader, he said something like making Scotland his first priority or something. Ta
"In an interview with the Sunday Mail minutes after the anouncement, Corbyn said he would make his first campaign visit north of the Border before Labour’s autumn conference in Brighton, which begins on September 27.
Corbyn said: “I am going to be campaigning a lot in Scotland.
“I was there three times during the leadership campaign and we had massive rallies in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. We got a great reception but we also got a lot of people who voted SNP in the General Election.
“Some of them were probably even SNP members.
“They were interested in an alternative to austerity, our opposition to the Welfare Reform Bill and my views on nuclear disarmament.
“I will be coming to Scotland a lot and listening to what people say and working with colleagues there.”
Labour lost all but one of their MPs in Scotland in the SNP’s landslide in May’s general election.
Corbyn – like the Scottish Government – is opposed to renewing Trident but has said he will not walk into any “traps” by quickly promising co-operation with the SNP on the issue.
He added: “I will work very hard and that starts with the election campaign for Holyrood next year and then down the line to the next general election in 2020.”
So, the fight back now of our party gathers speed and gathers pace. I am delighted that Kezia Dugdale is here today, our leader in Scotland. We are all going to be campaigning in Scotland, for Labour in Scotland, for those great traditions, those great Labour traditions in Scotland.
@theobertram: The Scottish people hate Tories but still rate May above Corbyn. 55 points above. FIFTY FIVE POINTS. IN SCOTLAND. https://t.co/Dv8KFDMf8R
@theobertram: [Before you says it's just a Labour thing & Blair is to blame, note that Kezia - Labour's leader in Scotland - is 25 points ahead of Corbyn]
@theobertram: Some Corbyn supporters acknowledge his bad polling but claim others could do no better. Kezia is proof that someone else can do better.
For those interested in the boundary review, the first draft of boundaries in England and Wales are out on the 13th Sept. For NI it is 6th Sept. No date yet for Scotland.
Otley TC; Lib Dem 427,337, Ind 330, Lab 214, 161,Con 110,84, Green 66,62. Two LD holds. In Lymington there was a tie and the Lib Dem won on drawing lots.
My wife and I listened to her on Sky News this morning and we both concluded that she is showing signs of passing her sell by date. She says the same things, uses the same words, and doesn't seem to have anything new to say.
Yesterday Labour and the Scots Liberals apparently joined the Scots Conservatives in stating that they would oppose any vote for a second referendum.
With Ruth Davidson above Nicola Sturgeon in approvals ratings and Theresa May having positive ratings as well it will be interesting to watch the political scene in Scotland over the coming months.
She needs reminding that 38% of Scots voted for Brexit and as she continues with her love affair of all things 'Junckers' she needs to look into the eyes of the Scottish Fishermen
‘25,000 pieces of abuse since last June with 20,000 of those over a 12 hr period’ – And now Police are investigating anti-Semitic and homophobic online abuse targeting the MP.
Yet Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably.
Not overrun, but those they have are incredibly industrious. All hail our glorious world-beating anti-semites.
Ram packed.
I like it.
"I'm on the Labour train today, and, as you can see, it's ram-packed with Jew-hating misogynists. The government needs to do something."
I do however think that Michael Foster should have been denied a ballot for his "Nazi stormtrooper" comments, or McNicol just looks as if he is attempting to rig the election against Corbyn. Geese, ganders and all that.
My wife and I listened to her on Sky News this morning and we both concluded that she is showing signs of passing her sell by date. She says the same things, uses the same words, and doesn't seem to have anything new to say.
I'm sure she'll be heartbroken at losing that vital 'Welsh Tory Remainer turned Brexiteer without a vote in Scotland' support.
I am gobsmacked by the logic of those who argue that, because economic confidence has improved since the BoE cut interest rates and re-started QE, the BoE shouldn't have cut interest rates and re-started QE.
Err, guys, don't you see that there might be a teeny little flaw in your reasoning?
Of course, that's not to say that the decision was necessarily right. We don't have a parallel universe to compare it with. But given the circumstances, it seems to have been at least arguably a sensible response to steady the ship, and there's no doubt that Carney's calming response after the referendum helped avoid a more serious loss of confidence. What's more, there doesn't seem to be any big downside in the BoE's action; it hasn't led to a further collapse in sterling or over-heating of the economy. Inflation is not currently a problem. Obviously the BoE and MPC will need to keep an eye on things, but, so far, they have managed the post-referendum turbulence with what appears to be aplomb.
Moving forward, what matters now is things outside the realm of monetary policy: political stability, the Brexit negotiations, deregulation, infrastructure projects.
''I am gobsmacked by the logic of those who argue that, because economic confidence has improved since the BoE cut interest rates and re-started QE, the BoE shouldn't have cut interest rates and re-started QE."
Isn't there a point about timing here? isn;t some of this data ahead of the BoE's rate cut? And even if not, then arguably before it took effect?
My wife and I listened to her on Sky News this morning and we both concluded that she is showing signs of passing her sell by date. She says the same things, uses the same words, and doesn't seem to have anything new to say.
I'm sure she'll be heartbroken at losing that vital 'Welsh Tory Remainer turned Brexiteer without a vote in Scotland' support.
''I am gobsmacked by the logic of those who argue that, because economic confidence has improved since the BoE cut interest rates and re-started QE, the BoE shouldn't have cut interest rates and re-started QE."
Isn't there a point about timing here? isn;t some of this data ahead of the BoE's rate cut? And even if not, then arguably before it took effect?
His explanation ... just a bit of a lark, bit of banter, just a joke.
Smith’s snide comments about women are the same thing he complains of when others do it.
Even if Owen wins, I think he won’t last a year, and there’ll be another Labour leadership election in 2017
His bloke-ish jokes about women and his c0ck-size actually remind me more of a loose-cannon UKIP politician than a Labour one, A Labour Godfrey Bloom. The People’s Donald Trump.
He just needs to change his position on Europe, and he could be running simultaneously for UKIP leader.
I agree it's too soon to tell. We won't know the entire truth til 2030. If ever. But you can forgive us LEAVERS for being a bit gloaty and vengeful when we were bullied with warnings like this: Brexit means the "end of western political civilization"
I think we can make informed guesses about Brexit outcomes, ie:
- The Brexit operation will be tricky, time-consuming, distracting and expensive as we unravel decades of agreements, laws, contracts and relationships with the least disruption. - The actual deal, once we have decided not to pursue a multilateral approach like the EEA will be minimal. The alternative is that we stay in a exit lounge indefinitely. I think both May and her EU counterparts are keen not to do that. - There's no real reason to believe the eventual arrangement will work better for the UK in economic terms that what we have now. There are good reasons to believe it will be worse. How much worse comes down to damage limitation. - The EU will remain the only show in town in Europe. In this sense it's like the Roman Empire. Nations can join in or they can hold out. As we are no longer joining in, we're presumably holding out. This could either be unsettling for us or we could be a contented backwater. - As none of this adds up to a compelling solution to a real problem, Brexit will be a shedload of spin from the government.
I am gobsmacked by the logic of those who argue that, because economic confidence has improved since the BoE cut interest rates and re-started QE, the BoE shouldn't have cut interest rates and re-started QE.
Err, guys, don't you see that there might be a teeny little flaw in your reasoning?
Of course, that's not to say that the decision was necessarily right. We don't have a parallel universe to compare it with. But given the circumstances, it seems to have been at least arguably a sensible response to steady the ship, and there's no doubt that Carney's calming response after the referendum helped avoid a more serious loss of confidence. What's more, there doesn't seem to be any big downside in the BoE's action; it hasn't led to a further collapse in sterling or over-heating of the economy. Inflation is not currently a problem. Obviously the BoE and MPC will need to keep an eye on things, but, so far, they have managed the post-referendum turbulence with what appears to be aplomb.
Moving forward, what matters now is things outside the realm of monetary policy: political stability, the Brexit negotiations, deregulation, infrastructure projects.
Downside - pension deficits. This is a massive issue and just because one can't look it up on Right Move like house prices one that is largely invisible to many sadly ( not suggesting that's you). We have a huge strategic issue that interest rates are too low. I firmly believe it's now actively counterproductive to cut them further and expand QE. However, they still plough on in what I consider to be the wrong direction. That's my issue.
Maybe Tusk is right. Maybe Brexit will destroy the CURRENT version of political civilisation. Maybe it will usher in a move away from 'liberal' lefty de-haut-en-bas paternalist contempt for the voter. Maybe nation states will reassert themselves. Maybe elite bureaucracies won't be quite so elite or remote in future.
I do hope so.
During my lifetime we've seen shifts away from unions dominating/nationalisation, centralisation of power - and back again a bit, pretty free speech to hate crimes for wolf whistling or being rude to Tom Daley on Twitter, never hearing a Muslim moaning from one year to the next to it being almost daily, experts everywhere telling us what to eat/think/drink/vote...
It's terribly elitist and divisive.
Or maybe our attitudes to what constitutes acceptable behavior towards each other have modernized.
His explanation ... just a bit of a lark, bit of banter, just a joke.
Smith’s snide comments about women are the same thing he complains of when others do it.
Even if Owen wins, I think he won’t last a year, and there’ll be another Labour leadership election in 2017
His bloke-ish jokes about women and his c0ck-size actually remind me more of a loose-cannon UKIP politician than a Labour one, A Labour Godfrey Bloom. The People’s Donald Trump.
He just needs to change his position on Europe, and he could be running simultaneously for UKIP leader.
(He’s changed his position on most things)
It would set a first. No major UK party has (to my knowledge - I'm willing to stand corrected), had three contested leadership elections in three successive years. The closest is Labour in 1960, 1961 and 1963, though that last one was down to the death of the incumbent.
Comments
http://www.cityam.com/217950/bank-england-governor-mark-carneys-earned-880k-last-year
Unlike some of my fellow LEAVE supporters, I'm much less sanguine about the economic data. Riding the emotional wave from one PMI to the next is a bit like going from one poll to the next. If it makes you feel good, fine, but don't expect anything meaningful from it.
We know there was the economic equivalent of a sharp intake of breath in the immediate pre and post-Referendum periods. Mrs Stodge tells me from her vantage point in the City that any number of projects were put on hold pending the referendum result.
The uncertainty wasn't just the result but that we were in uncharted waters. The immediate and savage devaluation of sterling (for all that some waxed lyrical about a 1 cent "jump" the other day, the fact remains sterling has still lost 15 cents on the dollar which is enormous)has had an immediate benefit for exporters but the longer term inflationary risk remains and there are signs inflation will return to the UK economy during next year.
Yet the result itself didn't lead to an immediate triggering of Article 50. In fact, rather like Y2K, nothing has happened at all and that has led to a huge exhalation of economic breath. Life has re-started but I suspect within that is a desire to spend, to get things done before Article 50 is invoked, before the negotiations start and the true picture (as distinct from the euphoric idyll portrayed in the Mail and Express) becomes clearer.
This will reflect in economic activity but hasn't been happened by the fall in interest rates which was a serious mistake and the markets remain addicted to QE and there will be a price when forced to go cold turkey.
I know an old chap called Alan Partridge. For the first sixty years of his life, blissful normality. Then twenty years of "aha".
"The Gaffe By Tony Blair That Could Have Caused Brexit"
An interesting well written article.
Our two female rabbits, Millie & May both feature.
Sadly Merlin not in the boys' names
4 weeks ago these same PMI readings were evidence that the experts were right and the economy was seriously suffering. Now it's simply too early to say.
Goose, gander, sauce.
But I'm afraid it was your side who relentlessly argued the certainty of an immediate sharp economic downturn if there was a LEAVE vote, and engaged a legion of so-called experts to back that up.
You can't retreat from that now, however much you might wish to.
That is so stupid and funny.
If all Queen's Speeches in the next few years are full of BREXIT it'll cause Parliamentary indigestion. Continuing to pass desirable new legislation should be the policy, while background negotiations continue on EU withdrawal; i.e. take our time.
This isn't disguising Remain as Leave. It's a slow reversion to something like the EEC or EFTA which the UK population were extremely content with. If UKIP object, they can sod off. 52/48% was at the best a mandate for a compromise between the extremes which will satisfy a majority and only piss off the minorities at both ends of the spectrum (e.g., Bill Cash and Michael Heseltine).
The target for the next 12 months ought now to be to have more councillors elected next May than Labour. i don't think many would regard that aim as lacking in ambition. Sure, it's still 'first loser' spot (though not on some councils it won't be), but to aspire to first, first you have to consolidate second.
As for 'several orders of magnitude': no. Parties don't have a divine right to exist and Labour are playing fast and loose with their position as a government-forming party. As you rightly say, in England, there is no alternative to the Tories at a national level but the key words there are 'at the moment'. Until recently, Labour was the natural vehicle to oppose the Tories in Scotland (remember the 'Tartan Tories' jibe?), and then they were the natural vehicle to oppose the SNP. Things change with poor management.
On Brexit and Scotland. We have had four years of constitutional wrangling. I think most people will want to move on to other things now. So no short term risk of a break in the Union, but Brexit does, I think, store up problems for the future. Brexit will be an exercise in damage limitation and spin. Theresa May might be able to present whatever comes out as a success in E&W, but it won't play in Scotland where people voted against in large numbers.
The SNP's position as the Fianna Fail of Scotland is assured. It will be the dominant party pitching to rightwingers like our Malcolm as well as unreconstructed communists with a vague pro-Scottishness. It won't have any policies because any particular policy will upset one faction of the Party or the other. In any case they are not really interested. As with Fianna Fail, the SNP is likely to lapse into cronyism - that environment will encourage it. The opposition will be limited to trying to deny the SNP a majority and at some point scratching together a coalition.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/706375/Fury-as-Sturgeon-snubs-Union-Jack-for-PM-visit-to-Scotland-but-now-flies-GERMAN-flag
Well it destroyed certain Western politicians.
In terms of HoC seats, Labour are two orders of magnitude ahead of either the LibDems and UKIP. There is no one else.
While amusing in her forties, I'm not sure she appreciate so much later in life.....
"Biggles".
No, c'mon, said the reporter, not your nickname - your real name.
"Biggles."
Turned out his parents had allowed his brother and sister to name him. And that's what they wanted. Biggles. So that's what he got. Biggles.
(0.6%).
.....most No voters have a stronger commitment to the Union with the rest of the UK than to the European Union headquartered in Brussels.
The SNP need to focus instead on persuading more voters that the case for independence makes economic sense.
In March this year - when the SNP envisaged Scotland would have become independent if it had voted Yes two years ago - as many as 49% said that they thought Scotland would now be worse off financially if it had voted for independence. Just 22% thought it would be better off.
Crucially, amongst those who voted No in September 2014 only 5% felt the country would now be better off, while as many as 81% reckoned it would be worse off.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37254078
During my lifetime we've seen shifts away from unions dominating/nationalisation, centralisation of power - and back again a bit, pretty free speech to hate crimes for wolf whistling or being rude to Tom Daley on Twitter, never hearing a Muslim moaning from one year to the next to it being almost daily, experts everywhere telling us what to eat/think/drink/vote...
It's terribly elitist and divisive.
"The great prophet Jeremiah lived during the most crucial period of Judah's existence as a kingdom. He saw the destruction of Jerusalem and the holy Temple, after he had incessantly warned his people to mend their ways before it was too late. And when the catastrophe finally overwhelmed his people, he was the one who bitterly lamented Israel's terrible fate in the Book of Echah (Lamentations) which we read on Tisha B'Av, the anniversary of that catastrophe.
At the same time, he proved to be a true friend in need, by helping his stricken people to bear the blow with courage and dignity, and by pointing out to them the path that would lead to restoration and redemption."
One reason the latter got his first job in that industry was a level of confusion between what he did and what I had done which made him look online far more experienced than he actually was...
Mind you the fact I hardly do any social media really does help on the invisibility stakes...
Labour MP Ruth Smeeth targeted by '25,000 abusive messages in Jeremy Corbyn's name' https://t.co/JXTQu6ZXD3 via @HuffPostUKPol
Ironically, outsiders completely misinterpreted what 'mastering the Internet' meant. It was a reaction to the fact that as mobiles & social media were banned, most of the employees didn't have a scoobies about the modern 'net, and in terms of Internet savvy were effectively 80 years old.
Perhaps Corbyn should march against this abuse shouting "not in my name".
What do you mean he won't?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/706509/scottish-independence-Nicola-Sturgeon-launch-new-drive
Dame Chakrabarti claimed Labour was “not overrun” by anti-Semites, just stuffed to the gills presumably?
Would you care to expand on your meaning at all, with examples?
http://www.survey2016.scot/take_the_survey
I expect uncertainty to last pretty much until 2020, but May will want to sew it up so she campaign on a Brexit 'done deal' for GE2020.
That would allow her to put forward an attractive programme of domestic reform for the 2020-2025 parliament, which I suspect is her true passion anyway.
"I'm on the Labour train today, and, as you can see, it's ram-packed with Jew-hating misogynists. The government needs to do something."
Ram-packed is socialist nonsense, or possibly a derogatory term for a Welsh leisure centre.
Edit: Top priority in fact.
'Corbyn puts Scottish recovery top of his '10 priorities' for Labour leadership'
http://tinyurl.com/zjjyzwx
Corbyn puts Scottish recovery top of his '10 priorities' for Labour leadership
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/politics/news/61820/corbyn-puts-scottish-recovery-top-his-10-priorities
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/sep/14/jeremy-corbyns-victory-speech-what-he-said-what-he-meant
In MPs, they had about 80% until a couple of years ago.
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=corbyn+leader+scotland+first+priority
Corbyn said: “I am going to be campaigning a lot in Scotland.
“I was there three times during the leadership campaign and we had massive rallies in Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow. We got a great reception but we also got a lot of people who voted SNP in the General Election.
“Some of them were probably even SNP members.
“They were interested in an alternative to austerity, our opposition to the Welfare Reform Bill and my views on nuclear disarmament.
“I will be coming to Scotland a lot and listening to what people say and working with colleagues there.”
Labour lost all but one of their MPs in Scotland in the SNP’s landslide in May’s general election.
Corbyn – like the Scottish Government – is opposed to renewing Trident but has said he will not walk into any “traps” by quickly promising co-operation with the SNP on the issue.
He added: “I will work very hard and that starts with the election
campaign for Holyrood next year and then down the line to the next general election in 2020.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-pledges-win-back-6433790
Miss Vance, indeed. Poor Rome. Where would we be today without the Dark Ages?
FIFTY FIVE POINTS.
IN SCOTLAND. https://t.co/Dv8KFDMf8R
@theobertram: [Before you says it's just a Labour thing & Blair is to blame, note that Kezia - Labour's leader in Scotland - is 25 points ahead of Corbyn]
@theobertram: Some Corbyn supporters acknowledge his bad polling but claim others could do no better. Kezia is proof that someone else can do better.
Yesterday Labour and the Scots Liberals apparently joined the Scots Conservatives in stating that they would oppose any vote for a second referendum.
With Ruth Davidson above Nicola Sturgeon in approvals ratings and Theresa May having positive ratings as well it will be interesting to watch the political scene in Scotland over the coming months.
She needs reminding that 38% of Scots voted for Brexit and as she continues with her love affair of all things 'Junckers' she needs to look into the eyes of the Scottish Fishermen
Perfect 'slice' served up by ladies of the Ritz, Millport. They've got the perfect present for @NicolaSturgeon too.. https://t.co/Db8SsYwoYo
These are receptiveness - how you feel about the song - predictability, surprise, melodic potency - how good the 'hook' is - and rhythmic repetition.
The exact formula was revealed as: Receptiveness + (predictability - surprise) + (melodic potency ) + (rhythmic repetition x 1.5) = earworm..."
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/top-20-most-difficult-songs-8750680
Guess she'll just have to struggle on.
https://twitter.com/scotlandvotes/status/771642748071915520
His explanation ... just a bit of a lark, bit of banter, just a joke.
He is the Dapper Laughs of the Labour Party.
Err, guys, don't you see that there might be a teeny little flaw in your reasoning?
Of course, that's not to say that the decision was necessarily right. We don't have a parallel universe to compare it with. But given the circumstances, it seems to have been at least arguably a sensible response to steady the ship, and there's no doubt that Carney's calming response after the referendum helped avoid a more serious loss of confidence. What's more, there doesn't seem to be any big downside in the BoE's action; it hasn't led to a further collapse in sterling or over-heating of the economy. Inflation is not currently a problem. Obviously the BoE and MPC will need to keep an eye on things, but, so far, they have managed the post-referendum turbulence with what appears to be aplomb.
Moving forward, what matters now is things outside the realm of monetary policy: political stability, the Brexit negotiations, deregulation, infrastructure projects.
Isn't there a point about timing here? isn;t some of this data ahead of the BoE's rate cut? And even if not, then arguably before it took effect?
His bloke-ish jokes about women and his c0ck-size actually remind me more of a loose-cannon UKIP politician than a Labour one, A Labour Godfrey Bloom. The People’s Donald Trump.
He just needs to change his position on Europe, and he could be running simultaneously for UKIP leader.
(He’s changed his position on most things)
I think we can make informed guesses about Brexit outcomes, ie:
- The Brexit operation will be tricky, time-consuming, distracting and expensive as we unravel decades of agreements, laws, contracts and relationships with the least disruption.
- The actual deal, once we have decided not to pursue a multilateral approach like the EEA will be minimal. The alternative is that we stay in a exit lounge indefinitely. I think both May and her EU counterparts are keen not to do that.
- There's no real reason to believe the eventual arrangement will work better for the UK in economic terms that what we have now. There are good reasons to believe it will be worse. How much worse comes down to damage limitation.
- The EU will remain the only show in town in Europe. In this sense it's like the Roman Empire. Nations can join in or they can hold out. As we are no longer joining in, we're presumably holding out. This could either be unsettling for us or we could be a contented backwater.
- As none of this adds up to a compelling solution to a real problem, Brexit will be a shedload of spin from the government.
PS. Could we see a Mission accomplished from Theresa May in 2020?