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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited July 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Odds-on UKIP leadership favourite, Steven Woolfe, should know today whether or not he’ll be allowed on the ballot

Steven Woolfe MEP is the red hot odds on favourite to become UKIP leader in succession to Nigel Farage who stood down after the referendum. He’s said to have the backing of Arron Banks.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2016
    First ..... again!

    Good morning everyone, the master is back.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    It seems fairly amazing that Douglas Carswell, UKIP's sole M.P. is a massive 80/1, against becoming the party's next leader ..... presumably on account of his not having been nominated!
    He appears a somewhat isolated figure in the Purple Party and indeed within the HoC. With Cameron now gone and the Tories firmly committed to Brexit, whilst UKIP seem likely to take a turn to the left under their likely new leader, would now not seem a sensible time perhaps for Douglas to return to the Blue Team. With their wafer thin majority, I imagine he would be made quite welcome by La May and others.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Fpt why would the death of the labour party be a bad thing ? The country needs a Liberal party and a Conservative one. Labour needs to DIE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    DIE
    Joff can also poss off with his mockery of Clegg. He had more moral compass in his little finger than the entire Labour party from Blair to Corbyn.
    People can see the sacrifice the LDS made, hence the local election results. More noble a cause than anything Labour have conjured up since about 1992
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    DIE Labour DIE
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    DIE Labour DIE

    Good night?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DIE Labour DIE

    Good night?
    Sounds like Pulpstar had a bad one. Or maybe s/he's in Fiji or somewhere. The real risk is that the left-of-centre vote will split so many ways that the SNP become Her Majesty's Opposition. Corbynism is a reaction to Blairism: a belief that Parliament can only enact Tory or Tory-lite policies. (This also appears to be Pulpstar's position, the difference being s/he approves of it.) Until people like Jopp can refute this (I'm far from sure that they can) JC will continue to have an iron grip on his Party.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    National - PPP - All post DNC

    Clinton 50 .. Trump 45

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/clinton-image-improves-following-conventions-leads-trump-by-5.html
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,083
    JackW said:

    National - PPP - All post DNC

    Clinton 50 .. Trump 45

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/clinton-image-improves-following-conventions-leads-trump-by-5.html

    "The Vladimir Putin/Russia issue has the potential to cause Donald Trump a lot of problems in the weeks ahead. Only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably to 69% with a negative opinion and only 14% see Russia as a whole favorably to 52% with a negative view. By a 47 point margin- 5% more likely, 52% less likely- voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate if it's perceived Russia is interfering in the election to try to help them. And by a 26 point margin- 9% more likely, 35% less likely- they're less likely to vote for a candidate seen as being friendly toward Russia. If Democrats can effectively leverage this issue in the weeks ahead it has the potential to help turn this into a more lopsided race.

    Also problematic for Trump is that the issue of him releasing his tax returns isn't going anywhere. 62% of voters think he needs to release them to only 23% who think it's not necessary. That includes Democrats (85/8) and independents (60/22) overwhelmingly thinking Trump needs to release them and Republicans (37/43) being pretty evenly split on the issue."
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Woolfe looks like a character straight out of EastEnders.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    System said:


    imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Odds-on UKIP leadership favourite, Steven Woolfe, should know today whether or not he’ll be allowed on the ballot

    Steven Woolfe MEP is the red hot odds on favourite to become UKIP leader in succession to Nigel Farage who stood down after the referendum. He’s said to have the backing of Arron Banks.

    Read the full story here


    It's a pity the UKIP parliamentary party doesn't get to hold the ballot, just for the hilarity.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    You miss the point. Surely JC would be "too busy" to do that, too?

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    JC would love to campaign on just that :o

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2016
    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    Can you just imagine. Every day in the house would be like an episode of Seasame St with Fozzie Bear in the chair.

    ..........come to think of it :joy:
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    :astonished:

    He would pull down all that thousand quid roll wallpaper that the incumbent put up at public expense and replace it with whitewash and Che Guevara Yasser Arafat posters!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    That is actually a tremendous idea.

    Or, as I suggested yesterday 160 Labour MPs could resign the whip and/or form a new party and the opposition. I simply don't know why they are accepting the notion of fighting the next election on hard left principles....it will lose some of them their seats.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,083
    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Today, "There are now 37,000 Ukip members" http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    - UKIP has around 42,000 members, as of January 2015.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    edited July 2016
    Good morning, everyone.

    This is a bit silly. Between this and Evans, and Nutall not standing, it appears UKIP are doing the political re-enactment of Sideshow Bob stepping on 17 rakes in a row.

    F1: my pre-race piece (with an important update relevant to the bit and exciting comments) is up here:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/germany-pre-race-2016.html

    Edited extra bet^:ahem, the bet*. Not the bit.

    ^bit, not bet.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Mortimer said:

    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    That is actually a tremendous idea.

    Or, as I suggested yesterday 160 Labour MPs could resign the whip and/or form a new party and the opposition. I simply don't know why they are accepting the notion of fighting the next election on hard left principles....it will lose some of them their seats.
    That's always assuming the Party re-nominates them. Do you think JC wants it to?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Speaking of big crowds or not

    Donald Trump
    Can you imagine if I had the small crowds that Hillary is drawing today in Pennsylvania. It would be a major media event! @CNN @FoxNews
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    F1: just reading up on Hulkenberg's penalty: it wasn't even for using the wrong tyres. It appears to be for an administrative error, with the team erroneously reporting the wrong tyres were given back.

    Given that, a one place grid penalty is harsh, when Mercedes got none for an unsafe release in P3. Can't believe errant paperwork is a more grievous crime than a near collision in the pitlane.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2016
    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Are all of the above members of the party ? I mean, UKIP.

    Where are Evans and James ? Are they bonafide members too ? Do UKIP Members know about an banking instrument called standing order or direct debit ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Dr. Foxinsox, Thessalonica was named by the Diadochus Cassander after his wife. It was common practice (particularly for leaders themselves) back then, but I think Thessalonica is the only such city still extant/major.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    logical_song said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Today, "There are now 37,000 Ukip members" http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    - UKIP has around 42,000 members, as of January 2015.
    I take it 42,001 since Woolfie was not a member as of January 2015.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    Speaking of big crowds or not

    Donald Trump
    Can you imagine if I had the small crowds that Hillary is drawing today in Pennsylvania. It would be a major media event! @CNN @FoxNews

    Corbyn gets big crowds too.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited July 2016
    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    I can't believe Woolfe will be voided over a technicality like this - he's a current MEP, campaigned as UKIP.

    I know a few Kippers don't like him because he's not Nigel, however he seems a really strong candidate professionally, academically and great on the TV. His back story also negates many of the stones thrown at UKIP.

    If he's ruled out - I can't see the others lasting long/commanding enough respect after Farage.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    This is a bit silly. Between this and Evans, and Nutall not standing, it appears UKIP are doing the political re-enactment of Sideshow Bob stepping on 17 rakes in a row.

    I dont think it is as bad as that, I suspect they will end up with two real candidates, Woolfe will be hard core candidate with Farage's backing and Aaron's money, and I think has to be the favourite. He also has a superb backstory to bury most of the standard attack lines on the party, mixed race council estate background will kill any racism or privilege attacks stone dead. Duffy on the other hand is clearly being lined up as the candidate for the more libertarian wing of the party and is backed by Carswell. Arnott appear to be positioning as the middle ground candidate.

    I am not a party member, but from the outside the difference in campaigning is interesting as well, Arnott appears to be lining up endless backers of social media and twittering with the best of them, Woolfe seems to be going more for the rubber chicken circuit and pressing the flesh at local associations.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Indigo said:

    alex. said:

    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Maybe the solution to the Labour Party's problem is to find a way to depose Bercow and nominate Corbyn for the speakership? Are you allowed to turn down the job if proposed...? ;)
    :astonished:

    He would pull down all that thousand quid roll wallpaper that the incumbent put up at public expense and replace it with whitewash and Che Guevara Yasser Arafat posters!
    Wasn't the thousand pound wallpaper Lord Irvine?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2016
    not_on_fire said:

    System said:


    imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Odds-on UKIP leadership favourite, Steven Woolfe, should know today whether or not he’ll be allowed on the ballot

    Steven Woolfe MEP is the red hot odds on favourite to become UKIP leader in succession to Nigel Farage who stood down after the referendum. He’s said to have the backing of Arron Banks.

    Read the full story here


    It's a pity the UKIP parliamentary party doesn't get to hold the ballot, just for the hilarity.
    The UKIPPP should have a ballot, a secret ballot. Only the TOTAL result should be declared, not how individual MPs voted.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    logical_song said:

    JackW said:

    National - PPP - All post DNC

    Clinton 50 .. Trump 45

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/clinton-image-improves-following-conventions-leads-trump-by-5.html

    "The Vladimir Putin/Russia issue has the potential to cause Donald Trump a lot of problems in the weeks ahead. Only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably to 69% with a negative opinion and only 14% see Russia as a whole favorably to 52% with a negative view. By a 47 point margin- 5% more likely, 52% less likely- voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate if it's perceived Russia is interfering in the election to try to help them. And by a 26 point margin- 9% more likely, 35% less likely- they're less likely to vote for a candidate seen as being friendly toward Russia. If Democrats can effectively leverage this issue in the weeks ahead it has the potential to help turn this into a more lopsided race.

    Also problematic for Trump is that the issue of him releasing his tax returns isn't going anywhere. 62% of voters think he needs to release them to only 23% who think it's not necessary. That includes Democrats (85/8) and independents (60/22) overwhelmingly thinking Trump needs to release them and Republicans (37/43) being pretty evenly split on the issue."
    All good news fotnTrump and shows how the Democrats have walked straight I to his trap.

    Or something.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Surbiton, isn't Evans still suspended for Crimes Against Nigel?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    logical_song said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Today, "There are now 37,000 Ukip members" http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    - UKIP has around 42,000 members, as of January 2015.
    I take it 42,001 since Woolfie was not a member as of January 2015.
    That attack isn't going anywhere, as an MEP for all the eligibility period he is a member in good standing without having to formally join the party, he has shown letters from the Party Secretary to that effect.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Indigo said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    This is a bit silly. Between this and Evans, and Nutall not standing, it appears UKIP are doing the political re-enactment of Sideshow Bob stepping on 17 rakes in a row.

    I dont think it is as bad as that, I suspect they will end up with two real candidates, Woolfe will be hard core candidate with Farage's backing and Aaron's money, and I think has to be the favourite. He also has a superb backstory to bury most of the standard attack lines on the party, mixed race council estate background will kill any racism or privilege attacks stone dead. Duffy on the other hand is clearly being lined up as the candidate for the more libertarian wing of the party and is backed by Carswell. Arnott appear to be positioning as the middle ground candidate.

    I am not a party member, but from the outside the difference in campaigning is interesting as well, Arnott appears to be lining up endless backers of social media and twittering with the best of them, Woolfe seems to be going more for the rubber chicken circuit and pressing the flesh at local associations.

    If you are not a member of the party, worry not. you are eligible to be a candidate to become leader.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surbiton, isn't Evans still suspended for Crimes Against Nigel?

    Did the XXIII Congress approve the indictment by acclamation ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    surbiton said:

    The UKIPPP should have a ballot, a secret ballot. Only the TOTAL result should be declared, not how individual MPs voted.

    Is the UKIPPP vote by STV ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    That was a decent draw for PAOK away to Ajax, but should they progress to the play-off round they will be up against one of the seeds. I actually think Leicester could go quite a long way in the Champions League. Being seeded gives them a good chance to get out of the group and if by February Leicester aren't competing for the title they could put all their eggs in the Champions League basket.

    I will be at the game on the 20th, a similar result to last season would be very welcome!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2016
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    No new polls. Clinton leading in Missouri ? Even as an outlier, it is interesting. I am keeping an eye on Georgia and Arizona .
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    surbiton said:

    Indigo said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    This is a bit silly. Between this and Evans, and Nutall not standing, it appears UKIP are doing the political re-enactment of Sideshow Bob stepping on 17 rakes in a row.

    I dont think it is as bad as that, I suspect they will end up with two real candidates, Woolfe will be hard core candidate with Farage's backing and Aaron's money, and I think has to be the favourite. He also has a superb backstory to bury most of the standard attack lines on the party, mixed race council estate background will kill any racism or privilege attacks stone dead. Duffy on the other hand is clearly being lined up as the candidate for the more libertarian wing of the party and is backed by Carswell. Arnott appear to be positioning as the middle ground candidate.

    I am not a party member, but from the outside the difference in campaigning is interesting as well, Arnott appears to be lining up endless backers of social media and twittering with the best of them, Woolfe seems to be going more for the rubber chicken circuit and pressing the flesh at local associations.

    If you are not a member of the party, worry not. you are eligible to be a candidate to become leader.
    Well I would be if I was an MEP for the party anyway. I can see you are going to bore away on this one for ages despite the party rule book saying that elected MEP/MPs are not asked to join the party as they are ex officio members of the party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Surbiton, that sounds like the sort of modernist nonsense to which you cannot possibly expect me to know the answer.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    surbiton said:

    The UKIPPP should have a ballot, a secret ballot. Only the TOTAL result should be declared, not how individual MPs voted.

    Is the UKIPPP vote by STV ?
    That is not my business. ITV, C4 are also OK. Even, heaven forbid, BBC.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: just reading up on Hulkenberg's penalty: it wasn't even for using the wrong tyres. It appears to be for an administrative error, with the team erroneously reporting the wrong tyres were given back.

    Given that, a one place grid penalty is harsh, when Mercedes got none for an unsafe release in P3. Can't believe errant paperwork is a more grievous crime than a near collision in the pitlane.

    I'm starting to wonder if they make the rules up as they go along. Couple of races ago Button did a drive through penalty for " inappropriate radios comms". I am now hearing that the radio rules have been abandoned? You can change rules of course but it's hardly consistent from race to race in the same season**

    ** might be classed under driver / race safety of course.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Moses, it does seem rather odd.

    The Button issue was a brake pedal not working properly. Getting a penalty for receiving advice on that is crackers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    I see the IOC has continued to fail to organise an alcoholic social gathering in a brewery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36934760

    The only firm decision they appear to have made is that the whistleblower (herself a cheat, as I understand it) can't compete.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    surbiton said:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    No new polls. Clinton leading in Missouri ? Even as an outlier, it is interesting. I am keeping an eye on Georgia and Arizona .

    RCP are sometime late or even AWOL in reporting some POTOS polls .... oddly all with Clinton leads.

    They have form. They did the same to Obama in 08 and 12 until the last weeks of the election. Accordingly caution is required.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016
    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    That was a decent draw for PAOK away to Ajax, but should they progress to the play-off round they will be up against one of the seeds. I actually think Leicester could go quite a long way in the Champions League. Being seeded gives them a good chance to get out of the group and if by February Leicester aren't competing for the title they could put all their eggs in the Champions League basket.

    I will be at the game on the 20th, a similar result to last season would be very welcome!
    Arsenal were the only team that we did not get a point off last season, and were a class above at the KP. Our loss at the Emirates was harsh though.

    We have Barca in Stockholm midweek before the Community Shield on Sunday. Arsenal is our first home game on the 20th, so should be a good atmosphere. Vardy to score at that one ;-)

    My Greek friends are PAOK supporters, and they have some Russian money behind them. Away games there are intimidating so they should beat Ajax.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016
    surbiton said:

    That is not my business. ITV, C4 are also OK. Even, heaven forbid, BBC.

    Rutland Weekend Television are the media outlet to follow for all UKIPPP activities ....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I see the IOC has continued to fail to organise an alcoholic social gathering in a brewery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36934760

    The only firm decision they appear to have made is that the whistleblower (herself a cheat, as I understand it) can't compete.

    That's not fair. They have decided that a two-time cheat, Gatlin, could compete and even win a gold medal but Isinbayeva who has never had a negative result could not.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see Barack "worst most hated president of all time" Obama continues through have monstrous favorability ratings currently at +10 favourable on a 53/43 split.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    That was a decent draw for PAOK away to Ajax, but should they progress to the play-off round they will be up against one of the seeds. I actually think Leicester could go quite a long way in the Champions League. Being seeded gives them a good chance to get out of the group and if by February Leicester aren't competing for the title they could put all their eggs in the Champions League basket.

    I will be at the game on the 20th, a similar result to last season would be very welcome!
    Arsenal were the only team that we did not get a point off last season, and were a class above at the KP. Our loss at the Emirates was harsh though.

    We have Barca in Stockholm midweek before the Community Shield on Sunday. Arsenal is our first home game on the 20th, so should be a good atmosphere. Vardy to score at that one ;-)

    My Greek friends are PAOK supporters, and they have some Russian money behind them. Away games there are intimidating so they should beat Ajax.
    Do you think you could finish in the Top 6 this coming season ? I believe, you just about could.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    I see Barack "worst most hated president of all time" Obama continues through have monstrous favorability ratings currently at +10 favourable on a 53/43 split.

    Reaganesque.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Surbiton, a valid point.

    The IOC seems bloody inept. The Olympics are only a few days away from starting and there still isn't clarity.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    Alistair said:

    I see Barack "worst most hated president of all time" Obama continues through have monstrous favorability ratings currently at +10 favourable on a 53/43 split.

    Probably benefiting from who's to follow him!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    That was a decent draw for PAOK away to Ajax, but should they progress to the play-off round they will be up against one of the seeds. I actually think Leicester could go quite a long way in the Champions League. Being seeded gives them a good chance to get out of the group and if by February Leicester aren't competing for the title they could put all their eggs in the Champions League basket.

    I will be at the game on the 20th, a similar result to last season would be very welcome!
    Arsenal were the only team that we did not get a point off last season, and were a class above at the KP. Our loss at the Emirates was harsh though.

    We have Barca in Stockholm midweek before the Community Shield on Sunday. Arsenal is our first home game on the 20th, so should be a good atmosphere. Vardy to score at that one ;-)

    My Greek friends are PAOK supporters, and they have some Russian money behind them. Away games there are intimidating so they should beat Ajax.
    Do you think you could finish in the Top 6 this coming season ? I believe, you just about could.
    Yes, I think so. We did win the League by 10 points last season. Kante is a big loss but our other signings look good, and integrating well. Demari Gray will be a star this season. Like an English Mahrez, only more consistent.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Barack "worst most hated president of all time" Obama continues through have monstrous favorability ratings currently at +10 favourable on a 53/43 split.

    Probably benefiting from who's to follow him!
    To be fair he is getting a pretty impressive convention bounce, his speech was liked across the political spectrum with Republican NeverTrumps particularaly effusive in their praise.

    Never the less his approval ratings have been stellar this year beating Beloved Regan due to not having Iran Contra to drag him down.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    surbiton said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    I see the IOC has continued to fail to organise an alcoholic social gathering in a brewery:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36934760

    The only firm decision they appear to have made is that the whistleblower (herself a cheat, as I understand it) can't compete.

    That's not fair. They have decided that a two-time cheat, Gatlin, could compete and even win a gold medal but Isinbayeva who has never had a negative result could not.
    Agree re Gatlin. Wrt to Isinbayeva it's hard to feel too much sympathy for any Russian athletes who aren't allowed to compete.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxinsox, Thessalonica was named by the Diadochus Cassander after his wife. It was common practice (particularly for leaders themselves) back then, but I think Thessalonica is the only such city still extant/major.

    What about Ladysmith?

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Indigo said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Addendum to my previous post.

    Suppose the Speaker asks JC for an interview and JC finds he's "too busy" to meet with the Speaker? What happens next?

    If the Speaker tries anything JC puts down a Motion of No Confidence in the Speaker, there are easily enough Tories pissed off with the Speaker to carry that motion if Labour are proposing it. The SNP would support it just for the lols.
    Some 150+ Labour MPs would not back it and neither would the bulk of the Conservatives/LDs, etc. Not going to happen.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,083
    surbiton said:

    logical_song said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Today, "There are now 37,000 Ukip members" http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    - UKIP has around 42,000 members, as of January 2015.
    I take it 42,001 since Woolfie was not a member as of January 2015.
    No 37,001. UKIP have lost around 5,000 members between Jan 2015 and now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3716280/Yes-boys-sex-slaves-Outrage-British-Muslim-cleric-mosque-Cardiff-jihadis-radicalised-tells-teenagers-captives-permissible-Islam.html
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    France has 10000 on terror watch list - Sarkozy is really going full tilt on this now

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/focus/priest-killing-leads-to-call-for-french-guantanamo-9tbvpcklj
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Teacher, must admit, apart from the north, I know virtually nothing of African history.

    In terms of the Diadochi, I think I'm correct, though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    Who needs the Champions League? The Toon have got Burton Albion away to look forward to in December!

    (Albion auto-corrected to Albino!)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mark Cuban's belittling of Trump is pretty masterful.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Teacher, must admit, apart from the north, I know virtually nothing of African history.

    In terms of the Diadochi, I think I'm correct, though.

    I only know about Ladysmith from the eponymous group of singers.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    DIE
    Joff can also poss off with his mockery of Clegg. He had more moral compass in his little finger than the entire Labour party from Blair to Corbyn.
    People can see the sacrifice the LDS made, hence the local election results. More noble a cause than anything Labour have conjured up since about 1992

    I wasn't mocking Clegg. I was observing May will have very few people in Parliament seriously scrutinising her on Brexit. For the record, I am very pleased Clegg is one of them. It was a very smart move by the LDs to give him that role. He'll get a lot of TV time too. Corbyn, of course, is not a TV person. Given the chance to reach out to potential new voters and to debate, he refuses.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    surbiton said:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

    No new polls. Clinton leading in Missouri ? Even as an outlier, it is interesting. I am keeping an eye on Georgia and Arizona .

    Trump leads in New Hampshire and Florida though, there should be more polls today
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    NickPalmer said:

    I'm mostly off PB at the moment as I'm in the States with, mysteriously, a hotel with terrible wifi, after a week going over on the Queen Mary 2, which was a pleasant, slow and surprisingly inexpensive week (700 quid for a week's travel with free food and accommodation), but also had awful wifi.

    But just looking in to give the Corbyn viewpoint a hearing here:

    1. The stuff about the left not wanting to win elections is mostly wrong - for every quote of the kind Joff offers it's easy to find half a dozen more recent ones to the contrary, such as the interview with Corbyn this week. The difference is more subtle - the left doesn't think that winning elections is sufficient without an effective mass movement, because if you just win without it, they think you tend to be co-opted by elites and increasingly distant from the party that helped you win. The reconstruction of a mass membership party is seen by the left as a very real achievement, and the grumbles thsat they don't come to enough branch meetings and canvass session a secondary issue.

    2. To be fair to Owen Smith, he has produced a readable programme, which Corbyn's challengers last year did not. The question is whether it's seen as a credible bid, rather than as the icing on a "get rid of Corbyn" cake. He deserves a reasonable result but I don't think he'll come close to winning.

    3. If Corbyn wins comfortably, the mood in the party will shift to letting his leadership run its course - if he loses in 2020, he'll resign, but it will be important that any defeat is not seen as a result of constant refusal by the PLP to tolerate the elected leader. People who talk glibly of a third leadership election or a shadow PLP will find it very hard to get a hearing. There comes a point where MPs really need to accept the party's wishes or join another party whose wishes they prefer.

    4. There is a real distinction between members who fundamentally disagree with Corbyn and McDonnell, who might well be up for a split, and members who merely dislike the failure to make progress in the polls. The latter - which IMO includes the majority of the PLP - will not jump ship unless they are convinced that a much better and more successful ship is on offer. That's the real reason why a split would not succeed - it would attract only a relatively small proportion of MPs and an even smaller proportion of the membership, and for Labour MPs in safish seats,standing on the Labour ticket more or less guarantees winning while standing for a new party may well guarantee defeat.

    That said, back to purdah!

    Thanks nick. No4 is key,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    HaroldO said:

    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.

    Is Sexist train carriages still a policy?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.

    Is Sexist train carriages still a policy?
    I had forgotten about that, blimey.

    The more the Corbynites make this a personality cult the more they put themselves in a box for later elections, he has no policies because that would mean making a decision rather than being a the hippy geography teacher he is trying to be.
    Him v May will be blood on the carpet each week, and he won't even care.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    I see Barack "worst most hated president of all time" Obama continues through have monstrous favorability ratings currently at +10 favourable on a 53/43 split.

    Probably benefiting from who's to follow him!
    To be fair he is getting a pretty impressive convention bounce, his speech was liked across the political spectrum with Republican NeverTrumps particularaly effusive in their praise.

    Never the less his approval ratings have been stellar this year beating Beloved Regan due to not having Iran Contra to drag him down.
    Obama could also be the first president since Reagan to have a candidate from his own party succeed him in the White House and for his party to hold the White House for more than 8 years. Despite all the talk of how Hillary is favourite, only FDR and Reagan in the last 60 years have achieved that. Historically the odds should favour Trump
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited July 2016
    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    HaroldO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.

    Is Sexist train carriages still a policy?
    I had forgotten about that, blimey.

    The more the Corbynites make this a personality cult the more they put themselves in a box for later elections, he has no policies because that would mean making a decision rather than being a the hippy geography teacher he is trying to be.
    Him v May will be blood on the carpet each week, and he won't even care.
    I watched an long interview with maajid nawaz yesterday (filmed at the end of last year) & he briefly talks about corbyn & basically nails him on why he has certain stance on life, friends with terrorists etc.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    HYUFD said:

    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration

    Should be good if we have a referendum on EU membership :-)

    In a general election, voters in the north - and elsewhere - will need to hear a lot more.

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.

    Is Sexist train carriages still a policy?
    I had forgotten about that, blimey.

    The more the Corbynites make this a personality cult the more they put themselves in a box for later elections, he has no policies because that would mean making a decision rather than being a the hippy geography teacher he is trying to be.
    Him v May will be blood on the carpet each week, and he won't even care.
    I watched an long interview with maajid nawaz yesterday (filmed at the end of last year) & he briefly talks about corbyn & basically nails him on why he has certain stance on life, friends with terrorists etc.
    Couldn't post it up could you? I am doing some cooking later so could do with some light watching.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2016
    I have spent a few days pondering the likelihood of Labour finishing closer to third than first in percentage terms and wonder if there will be a betting market in it.

    You Gov: Labour are -12 from first, +15 from third
    ICM: Labour are -16 from first, +14 from third

    Opinium's re-weightings turned an 11 point deficit from raw data into 6 points, compared to a 13 point lead on third.

    Ipsos' comedy 55% leftist bloc needs no consideration.

    Woolfe would represent a real threat to Labour. He will be able to cut through in ways that Farage never could.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    I'm mostly off PB at the moment as I'm in the States with, mysteriously, a hotel with terrible wifi, after a week going over on the Queen Mary 2, which was a pleasant, slow and surprisingly inexpensive week (700 quid for a week's travel with free food and accommodation), but also had awful wifi.

    But just looking in to give the Corbyn viewpoint a hearing here:

    1. The stuff about the left not wanting to win elections is mostly wrong - for every quote of the kind Joff offers it's easy to find half a dozen more recent ones to the contrary, such as the interview with Corbyn this week. The difference is more subtle - the left doesn't think that winning elections is sufficient without an effective mass movement, because if you just win without it, they think you tend to be co-opted by elites and increasingly distant from the party that helped you win. The reconstruction of a mass membership party is seen by the left as a very real achievement, and the grumbles thsat they don't come to enough branch meetings and canvass session a secondary issue.

    2. To be fair to Owen Smith, he has produced a readable programme, which Corbyn's challengers last year did not. The question is whether it's seen as a credible bid, rather than as the icing on a "get rid of Corbyn" cake. He deserves a reasonable result but I don't think he'll come close to winning.

    3. If Corbyn wins comfortably, the mood in the party will shift to letting his leadership run its course - if he loses in 2020, he'll resign, but it will be important that any defeat is not seen as a result of constant refusal by the PLP to tolerate the elected leader. People who talk glibly of a third leadership election or a shadow PLP will find it very hard to get a hearing. There comes a point where MPs really need to accept the party's wishes or join another party whose wishes they prefer.

    4. There is a real distinction between members who fundamentally disagree with Corbyn and McDonnell, who might well be up for a split, and members who merely dislike the failure to make progress in the polls. The latter - which IMO includes the majority of the PLP - will not jump ship unless they are convinced that a much better and more successful ship is on offer. That's the real reason why a split would not succeed - it would attract only a relatively small proportion of MPs and an even smaller proportion of the membership, and for Labour MPs in safish seats,standing on the Labour ticket more or less guarantees winning while standing for a new party may well guarantee defeat.

    That said, back to purdah!

    Thanks nick. No4 is key,

    Nick is kidding himself on point one. I think he's mainly right on 2, 3 and 4.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SandyRentool said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Indigo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Is the kipper election one member one vote?

    Has any other candidate declared.

    Kipper leaders (other than Farage) have not had a great track record in the past.

    5 so far, nominations close today.

    Steven Woolfe MEP
    Jonathan Arnott MEP
    Lisa Duffy
    Bill Etheridge MEP
    Liz Jones

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/ukip-looks-for-new-leader-and-an-identity-nigel-farage
    Reading that Arnott and Duffy may be worth a punt.

    Etheridge is surely the kipper Corbyn!

    Embarrassing performance by the Foxes (PSG 4 LCFC nil)
    I have a vote in this election - I should probably do some reading up on these people.

    On the plus side for Leicester they won't be drawn with PSG or any other (decent) league champions or Real Madrid in the Champions League. Will you be doing any away trips? Should you draw Dortmund I would thoroughly recommend going to the away game.
    Fox jr and me are hoping to go on a European tour, but will have to wait and see the CL fixtures. If we have PAOK in the group then Thessalonika is a must, friends there can get me tickets.

    Most Leicester fans are realists though. Last years season was no flash in the pan (38 games with 3 losses is not luck!). We should make top half and I think top six a realistic target. As long as we do not get bottom of the CL group, then I am happy. There is novelty in this for us as we last played in Europe 2 decades ago.

    Are you up for the Leicester game on the 20th?
    Who needs the Champions League? The Toon have got Burton Albion away to look forward to in December!

    (Albion auto-corrected to Albino!)
    Burton are quite a good side as I recall, Don't take them for granted!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited July 2016
    chestnut said:

    I have spent a few days pondering the likelihood of Labour finishing closer to third than first in percentage terms and wonder if there will be a betting market in it.

    You Gov: Labour are -12 from first, +15 from third
    ICM: Labour are -16 from first, +14 from third

    Opinium's re-weightings turned an 11 point deficit into 6 points from raw data, compared to a 13 point lead on third.

    Ipsos' comedy 55% leftist bloc needs no consideration.

    Woolfe would represent a real threat to Labour. He will be able to cut through in ways that Farage never could.

    Very possible the real story of the 2020 election if Corbyn is leader of Labour and Woolfe of UKIP like 1983 will not be who will win but whether Labour can hold second place in terms of voteshare. Then the threat was from the SDP and now it is UKIP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration

    Should be good if we have a referendum on EU membership :-)

    In a general election, voters in the north - and elsewhere - will need to hear a lot more.

    If some free movement is agreed that gives UKIP a sold base of working and lower middle-class Leave voters to target, up to 25% of the vote

  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Reasons to leave #94

    EU bans our top pond plant - to protect Spain: Water hyacinth added to banned list meaning it cannot be grown or sold anywhere within union

    It's Britain’s best-loved pond plant, but it faces extermination by the European Union – because it is hated in Spain and Portugal.

    The water hyacinth has been added to the EU’s Invasive Alien Species Regulations, meaning that it cannot be grown or sold anywhere within the EU.

    Here, the water hyacinth is a favourite of pond owners because it protects fish from predators such as herons and kingfishers, oxygenates water, and prevents algae from clogging ponds.

    And since it doesn’t seed, it cannot escape into waterways and it dies off completely following the first winter frost.

    However, in warm climates such as Spain, Portugal and South Africa, it grow very quickly, creating thick floating mats on lakes and affecting water sports, boating and irrigatio

    They lobbied for the EU-wide ban, which starts on Wednesday.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3716319/EU-bans-pond-plant-water-hyacinth-adding-banned-list-meaning-grown-sold-union.html

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surbiton, a valid point.

    The IOC seems bloody inept. The Olympics are only a few days away from starting and there still isn't clarity.

    The Olympics look as if they won't run as smoothly as a Swiss Watch.

    http://www.cbssports.com/olympics/news/heres-a-list-of-all-the-issues-surrounding-the-2016-rio-olympics/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    edited July 2016
    HaroldO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HaroldO said:

    Corbyn has a policy;

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/30/jeremy-corbyn-scrap-labour-union-laws-pledge#comments

    And it's a fucking stupid one to boot, he just reached back to his formative days in politics and dragged this nonsense out to please the unions.

    Is Sexist train carriages still a policy?
    I had forgotten about that, blimey.

    The more the Corbynites make this a personality cult the more they put themselves in a box for later elections, he has no policies because that would mean making a decision rather than being a the hippy geography teacher he is trying to be.
    Him v May will be blood on the carpet each week, and he won't even care.
    I watched an long interview with maajid nawaz yesterday (filmed at the end of last year) & he briefly talks about corbyn & basically nails him on why he has certain stance on life, friends with terrorists etc.
    Couldn't post it up could you? I am doing some cooking later so could do with some light watching.
    It was the Rubin report. Well worth watching, he has had all sorts of interesting folk on for 1-2 hrs interviews from across the political spectrum. There really isn't enough of this kind of thing where people who have nuanced opinions or detailed knowledge are given more than 5 mins to explain their take on difficult issues.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1CYuwBcPObQ
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Foxinsox, Thessalonica was named by the Diadochus Cassander after his wife. It was common practice (particularly for leaders themselves) back then, but I think Thessalonica is the only such city still extant/major.

    What about Ladysmith?

    Similarly Port Elizabeth and plenty of other examples off the top of my head. Unless Mr Dancer is narrowing the field to years pre Anno Lucis or something equally ancient?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Nick Cohen, a little old but still good;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQQw5T2T94M
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,056
    HYUFD said:

    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration

    I guess you could define "real" opposition to mean anything that suits you.

    The problem with UKIP is that very few people have any concept of what they stand for apart from Brexit and in addition very few of their "leader" are recognisable to the general public beyond Farage.

    I don't like Corbyn at all but the PB right wingers are getting a little carried away - even under him Labour are likely to return well over 100 MPs in 2020 and about 25-30% of the vote. This notion of UKIP sweeping to victory in Northern Labour heartlands has been around for ages - it never materialises - weren't they going to win or run Labour very close in the Oldham by-election? Exact opposite happened even with Corbyn as leader.

    I would also argue that if anyone is going to challenge Labour for the opposition mantle it will be the Lib Dems as they are gaining ground in local by-elections, often spectacularly, while UKIP are going backwards.

    I think it far more likely that UKIP becomes an irrelevance after Brexit than the "real opposition"
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    If they disqualify Wolfe on that flimsy basis then UKIP deserve to suffer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    weejonnie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surbiton, a valid point.

    The IOC seems bloody inept. The Olympics are only a few days away from starting and there still isn't clarity.

    The Olympics look as if they won't run as smoothly as a Swiss Watch.

    http://www.cbssports.com/olympics/news/heres-a-list-of-all-the-issues-surrounding-the-2016-rio-olympics/
    Except that every Olympics faces the same story one week out; the press were full of them last time.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Talk about an even-money bet on the presidency

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited July 2016
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration

    I guess you could define "real" opposition to mean anything that suits you.

    The problem with UKIP is that very few people have any concept of what they stand for apart from Brexit and in addition very few of their "leader" are recognisable to the general public beyond Farage.

    I don't like Corbyn at all but the PB right wingers are getting a little carried away - even under him Labour are likely to return well over 100 MPs in 2020 and about 25-30% of the vote. This notion of UKIP sweeping to victory in Northern Labour heartlands has been around for ages - it never materialises - weren't they going to win or run Labour very close in the Oldham by-election? Exact opposite happened even with Corbyn as leader.

    I would also argue that if anyone is going to challenge Labour for the opposition mantle it will be the Lib Dems as they are gaining ground in local by-elections, often spectacularly, while UKIP are going backwards.

    I think it far more likely that UKIP becomes an irrelevance after Brexit than the "real opposition"
    It all depends on free movement. A BBC Comres poll has 18% of voters wanting to stay in the single market with free movement, 52% stay in the single market with limits on free movement and 26% leave the single market and end the rules on free movement completely. Amongst Leave voters the totals are 7%, 54% and 35% respectively. May is most likely to agree the second option eventually and that will be the basis of Brexit. That means 35% of Leave voters will be up for grabs for UKIP ie about 18% of the electorate ie 5% more than they won at the 2015 general election. Add in the 15% of Remain voters who following Brexit want to leave the single market and end free movement completely and you get to 25% of the electorate potentially being open to voting UKIP on a 'Leave the Single Market and end rules on free movement entirely' platform.

    If Corbyn Labour falls to 27% as some polls are showing you could end up with a situation close to 1983 when Labour got 27% and the SDP 25%. It only takes 1 or 2% more and UKIP overtake Labour in voteshare. The LDs may win the odd council by-election but they are going nowhere in the polls. They might pick up the odd diehard EUphile who wants to stay in the single market with free movement as it is now but they are not as big a block as anti single market and anti free movement voters, coupled with the fact the LDs got 5% less than UKIP at the general election.
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-News_Tables_Brexit-Expectations_11072016.pdf
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wolfe looks a far more able leader than Corbyn and if Corbyn is reelected UKIP would be well placed to capitalise and push themselves as the 'real' opposition. Wolfe being a northerner, unlike Corbyn and May, could do particularly well there with a tough message on free movement and immigration

    Should be good if we have a referendum on EU membership :-)

    In a general election, voters in the north - and elsewhere - will need to hear a lot more.

    If some free movement is agreed that gives UKIP a sold base of working and lower middle-class Leave voters to target, up to 25% of the vote

    I doubt it. UKIP didn't get close to that under Farage and they had a national stage then. There'll be no more Euro elections to help them now, so they'll struggle to stay centre stage. What they need is a long hard think about what they're for. A swing leftwards on economic and fiscal policy is key, but the leadership and members are mostly very dry.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole
    If I'd bummed oligarchs, brownnosed central bankers fellated City spivs and sold my arse to the Chinese I could be a Companion of Honour now 2m
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