Amazingly slack as it seems to have let an ISIS terrorist be out on an electronic tag, with prisons apparently the James Caan of Islamic extremist recruitment would that have been any better?
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.
All immigrants, since William the Conquerer! And lived off taxpayers for centuries.
Talking about the ones from Manchester not the ones from Windsor.
I've always had the impression the Royle Family was set in Brinnington, a WWC council estate to the north east of Stockport. Jim Royle (despite his accent) appears to support Stockport County, and Nana lives somewhere close to Droylsden, from where it is possible to catch a bus to the Royle's house. And the writers are from Stockport. The alternatve theory is that it is set in Wythenshawe (also WWC), leant credence by the fact that Anthony's girlfriend in from Altrincham.
I'd not heard about the Hatters link (and being from that part of the world myself I would have thought I would have done)... but if he were from Brinny he'd surely be a Citeh fan.
It's in one of the early episodes - Jim asks 'how did County get on?'. As a Stockport County fan myself (though not the sort of fan who does any more these days than note their results) I was pleased. I only placed them in Brinny due to Nana being from somewhere near Droylsden thus shifting the family's centre of gravity north-eastwards a bit.
Blimey, two of us on PB. Though I haven't been to a game in a decade or so since the trains from London got so expensive...
You used to get the train from London for the privilege of watching Stockport? That is dedication.
I once met a Newcastle season ticket holder who lived in Swansea and caught the train up once a fortnight.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Amazingly slack as it seems to have let an ISIS terrorist be out on an electronic tag, with prisons apparently the James Caan of Islamic extremist recruitment would that have been any better?
Amazingly slack as it seems to have let an ISIS terrorist be out on an electronic tag, with prisons apparently the James Caan of Islamic extremist recruitment would that have been any better?
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's far and away my favourite of his books and I've read 'em all, including Zodiac.
As ever, it needed stronger editing and he still can't do endings, but it's an amazingly fun read - it's part homage to the Greatest Generation and part modern crypto-thriller.
Strongly recommended - it's one of the few books that have actually had me crying with laughter.
Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.
All immigrants, since William the Conquerer! And lived off taxpayers for centuries.
Talking about the ones from Manchester not the ones from Windsor.
I've always had the impression the Royle Family was set in Brinnington, a WWC council estate to the north east of Stockport. Jim Royle (despite his accent) appears to support Stockport County, and Nana lives somewhere close to Droylsden, from where it is possible to catch a bus to the Royle's house. And the writers are from Stockport. The alternatve theory is that it is set in Wythenshawe (also WWC), leant credence by the fact that Anthony's girlfriend in from Altrincham.
I'd not heard about the Hatters link (and being from that part of the world myself I would have thought I would have done)... but if he were from Brinny he'd surely be a Citeh fan.
It's in one of the early episodes - Jim asks 'how did County get on?'. As a Stockport County fan myself (though not the sort of fan who does any more these days than note their results) I was pleased. I only placed them in Brinny due to Nana being from somewhere near Droylsden thus shifting the family's centre of gravity north-eastwards a bit.
Blimey, two of us on PB. Though I haven't been to a game in a decade or so since the trains from London got so expensive...
You used to get the train from London for the privilege of watching Stockport? That is dedication.
I went from Birmingham via Stockport to Buxton a couple of months ago - just so I could colour in the Buxton Line on my Baker Atlas
The England alone figures from latest ICM poll. CON 47% LAB 26% A 21% lead
In Wales the Tories are shown as well ahead of Labour. How likely is that?
Very likely, Wales is trending towards the Tories, would take less than a 5% swing for the Tories to win the popular vote.
I think you're misunderestimating how toxic Corbyn is.
I accurately forecast Wales would back Leave, there's something interesting going on in Wales.
The most recent ITN/Yougov Wales poll still had Labour 11 % ahead of the Conservatives . You are surely experienced enough to not put too much trust in sub samples from a national poll .
Pretty sure the Tories are actually ahead of Labour in Scotland, so it stands to reason that at least one of the other sub-samples is overstating them.
Dream on
Why? You think Corbyn's Labour has improved in Scotland since May?
Breivik was involved in gang activity on the other side from Muslim gangs when younger. He also seems to have had a very psychologically damaged mother. His sexual identity problems come out in how he expresses admiration for male "warriors" who have their sexual organs removed in order to underline or permanentise their heroic commitment to the Cause. You are right that his Christianity isn't profound. He sees himself as some kind of superman of the will and the intellect, in a way reminiscent of Moors murderer Ian Brady. The ideological side of Breivik's motivation is Norwegian racial nationalism (often not very far under the surface in Norway) warmly wrapped up in a broader European white Christian cultural identity. Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them
Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".
Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.
Explain what you mean by false flag. It sounds like an idiotic conspiracy theory.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.
Well, clearly she's a bit of a d*ckhead herself, given who she modelled her looks on:
:-o
She is white, on £80k a year for a taxpayer funded organisation, lives in a nice pad in town with a progressive musician partner and there are photos of her enjoying large glasses champagne online.
I'd say she was the epitome of 'white privilege' and it's her comments that show her up to be the f**king d**khead, not Prince George.
She's entitled to her opinion. Imo she's an ugly c**t and a nasty b***h.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
She may well be. Apparently she's also a dick about it.
Seems like she didn't describe the prince as a "fking dkhead", or words to that effect - someone else did [or so it says in the body of the Metro, Mail and Sun articles - second para in the linked Metro one]. She commented underneath.
Her white privilege comment might be rather OTT, but it is a reasonable personal opinion, and certainly not as insulting as the Metro's link text would have you believe.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.
Well, clearly she's a bit of a d*ckhead herself, given who she modelled her looks on:
:-o
She is white, on £80k a year for a taxpayer funded organisation, lives in a nice pad in town with a progressive musician partner and there are photos of her enjoying large glasses champagne online.
I'd say she was the epitome of 'white privilege' and it's her comments that show her up to be the f**king d**khead, not Prince George.
She's entitled to her opinion. Imo she's an ugly c**t and a nasty b***h.
Is it also your opinion that killing lefties should not be a crime?
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
She may well be. Apparently she's also a dick about it.
Seems like she didn't describe the prince as a "fking dkhead", or words to that effect - someone else did [or so it says in the body of the Metro, Mail and Sun articles - second para in the linked Metro one]. She commented underneath.
Her white privilege comment might be rather OTT, but it is a reasonable personal opinion, and certainly not as insulting as the Metro's link text would have you believe.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Its funny even with a massive majority the map doesn't look that different due to the rural/urban split.
ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed
Are we believing opinion polls again?
We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
Always thought that The Royle Family far too white & unreflective of the area they were supposed to live.
All immigrants, since William the Conquerer! And lived off taxpayers for centuries.
Talking about the ones from Manchester not the ones from Windsor.
I've always had the impression the Royle Family was set in Brinnington, a WWC council estate to the north east of Stockport. Jim Royle (despite his accent) appears to support Stockport County, and Nana lives somewhere close to Droylsden, from where it is possible to catch a bus to the Royle's house. And the writers are from Stockport. The alternatve theory is that it is set in Wythenshawe (also WWC), leant credence by the fact that Anthony's girlfriend in from Altrincham.
I'd not heard about the Hatters link (and being from that part of the world myself I would have thought I would have done)... but if he were from Brinny he'd surely be a Citeh fan.
It's in one of the early episodes - Jim asks 'how did County get on?'. As a Stockport County fan myself (though not the sort of fan who does any more these days than note their results) I was pleased. I only placed them in Brinny due to Nana being from somewhere near Droylsden thus shifting the family's centre of gravity north-eastwards a bit.
Blimey, two of us on PB. Though I haven't been to a game in a decade or so since the trains from London got so expensive...
You used to get the train from London for the privilege of watching Stockport? That is dedication.
I once met a Newcastle season ticket holder who lived in Swansea and caught the train up once a fortnight.
A couple of years back I stayed at dockside hotel for a weekend and on the Saturday night the place was packed with Norwegians. Fans of Liverpool football club, the girls at the desk told me, they flew over every fortnight or so for the home games. Footer excites strange behaviours.
Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.
Explain what you mean by false flag. It sounds like an idiotic conspiracy theory.
That's exactly what false flag means - that the people it appears or is claimed carried out an action were not really the ones behind it. Usually it is implied a government is behind an attack on itself in order to stir up tensions to take advantage of, that sort of thing.
Not saying conspiracies have never existed, I'm sure false flag actions have happened, but most of the time the chances of them being true are slight because it relies on hundreds if not thousands of people being in on it, with a level of discreetness and efficiency our governments only wish they were capable of.
I am not a Christian, but the reactions to the atrocity in Normandy this morning from both the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Catholic Church have been magnificent. Goodness is an overused word, but is entirely appropriate here. I find their goodness in the face of such evil deeply moving. Faith is a wonderful gift in the right hands.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
That's right, though there are C versions as well. It's OK as a hand cipher, which is as niche-y as you can get. AES-CTR is far superior if you want a keystream.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
Nice bit of analysis! My thoughts after the last general election were similar - the Conservatives did pretty much as well as was reasonably possible; there were hardly any seats vulnerable to another final heave or a bit of local luck, and lots of Conservative seats which could easily fall away again. That was last year though - if the current poll is accurate then the world changes completely.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
That's right, though there are C versions as well. It's OK as a hand cipher, which is as niche-y as you can get. AES-CTR is far superior if you want a keystream.
I must admit my crypto knowledge is just about good enough to know that I should go away and leave it to the grownups.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Its funny even with a massive majority the map doesn't look that different due to the rural/urban split.
True enough. Market towns really don't like Labour at the moment!
ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed
Are we believing opinion polls again?
We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
Breivik was involved in gang activity on the other side from Muslim gangs when younger. He also seems to have had a very psychologically damaged mother. His sexual identity problems come out in how he expresses admiration for male "warriors" who have their sexual organs removed in order to underline or permanentise their heroic commitment to the Cause. You are right that his Christianity isn't profound. He sees himself as some kind of superman of the will and the intellect, in a way reminiscent of Moors murderer Ian Brady. The ideological side of Breivik's motivation is Norwegian racial nationalism (often not very far under the surface in Norway) warmly wrapped up in a broader European white Christian cultural identity. Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them
Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".
Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.
Explain what you mean by false flag. It sounds like an idiotic conspiracy theory.
Given the spate of attacks in mainland Europe by Middle eastern immigrants, are their still Remainers that would like to rerun the referendum at the moment?
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed
Are we believing opinion polls again?
We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
ICM platinum double-diamond standard status confirmed
Are we believing opinion polls again?
We're still concerned that they may be understating the true scale of the Conservative lead.
True. I would take 2% off the Labour number and add it to the Conservatives. 25% Lab and 45% Conservatives would be a reasonable expectation based on the state of all the parties.
Not much sign of that in last week's local by elections.
It is the false hope generated by a few local by elections which will hurt you. It is a disease that frequently affects Lib Dems, falsehopusbyelections.
I belong to no political party and only voted Labour at one of the last five general elections.
Noted. Local by elections are a very bad indicator of future election performance. Annual local elections are much more reliable.
Now, I know you're screaming at your computer screens "WTF are you talking about, Sunil?", but let me explain:
1. A job for life: Monarchs are in the job for life, excepting abdications, of which there hasn't been one in the UK for 80 years. "Jobs for life", as we know, is a key socialist aim and rallying cry!
2. The hereditary principle: a key feature of socialist political dynasties around the world, e.g. the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, the Kennedys in the US, and the Kinnocks in the UK!
3. Pomp and circumstance: Speaking of North Korea, Trooping the Colour and other Royal pageants are positively North Korean in their organisation and spectacle! In fact, no other country does pageants better than hereditary, socialist North Korea!
So, my fellow PBers, I put it to you that Monarchy is a socialist institution through and through!
Ends.
I put it to you good sir that prostitution is the true socialist profession. Prostitutes have and always will control their means of production.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Its funny even with a massive majority the map doesn't look that different due to the rural/urban split.
Snow Crash was my favorite of his. Full of wonderful off-the-wall ideas, such as: citizenship is now by fast-food brand loyalty rather than nationality; a bad guy riding around in a side-car bike with a nuclear bomb which is triggered if his heart stops, so the police protect him from others as he commits crimes; and, of course, well before its time, wikipedia (although he called it another name)
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
Stop being unkind, don’t you realise the poor girl had a personal space violated…
I am not a Christian, but the reactions to the atrocity in Normandy this morning from both the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Catholic Church have been magnificent. Goodness is an overused word, but is entirely appropriate here. I find their goodness in the face of such evil deeply moving. Faith is a wonderful gift in the right hands.
Thanks to government policy we now live in a time when Christian martyrdom will become commonplace. Perhaps the Church will experience a revival.
Given the spate of attacks in mainland Europe by Middle eastern immigrants, are their still Remainers that would like to rerun the referendum at the moment?
I'd say Leave would win more easily
Now now please do not goad them. Remoaners are shifting into the final stages of mourning.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
That's right, though there are C versions as well. It's OK as a hand cipher, which is as niche-y as you can get. AES-CTR is far superior if you want a keystream.
I must admit my crypto knowledge is just about good enough to know that I should go away and leave it to the grownups.
There's a saying in military circles: "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics".
The cryptographic equivalent is "Amateurs worry about algorithms. Professionals worry about key distribution."
I used to do cryptographic software assurance for a living (presumably because I'd committed some ghastly crime in a previous life, and this was my karmic burden). I've seen terrible things, so you've definitely got the right approach .
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Its funny even with a massive majority the map doesn't look that different due to the rural/urban split.
Snow Crash was my favorite of his. Full of wonderful off-the-wall ideas, such as: citizenship is now by fast-food brand loyalty rather than nationality; a bad guy riding around in a side-car bike with a nuclear bomb which is triggered if his heart stops, so the police protect him from others as he commits crimes; and, of course, well before its time, wikipedia (although he called it another name)
Isn't that the one where the main character is literally called Hiro Protagonist?
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
Nice bit of analysis! My thoughts after the last general election were similar - the Conservatives did pretty much as well as was reasonably possible; there were hardly any seats vulnerable to another final heave or a bit of local luck, and lots of Conservative seats which could easily fall away again. That was last year though - if the current poll is accurate then the world changes completely.
The other issue with your analysis is that they are not starting on an equal footing as the number of seats that each holds is not equal. If you assume that the current position is the 'midpoint' then you want to 'spread' the Labour seats equally amongst the Tory seats so that as well as matching the most marginal vs the most marginal, you also match the safest vs the safest. (If you see what I mean)
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
Famously not. That is how they got around export controls for PGP back in the day. Phil Zimmerman published PGP Source Code and Internals containing the full source code of PGP, which was distributed widely to many countries as export of books is protected under the First Amendment. Anyone wanting to build the tool would cut the covers off and OCR the book into their system and compile it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Good_Privacy
Breivik was involved in gang activity on the other side from Muslim gangs when younger. He also seems to have had a very psychologically damaged mother. His sexual identity problems come out in how he expresses admiration for male "warriors" who have their sexual organs removed in order to underline or permanentise their heroic commitment to the Cause. You are right that his Christianity isn't profound. He sees himself as some kind of superman of the will and the intellect, in a way reminiscent of Moors murderer Ian Brady. The ideological side of Breivik's motivation is Norwegian racial nationalism (often not very far under the surface in Norway) warmly wrapped up in a broader European white Christian cultural identity. Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them
Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".
Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.
Explain what you mean by false flag. It sounds like an idiotic conspiracy theory.
False flag = an attack made to look like ISIS, but carried out by their enemies in order to generate a casus belli. Like the Gleiwitz incident.
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
Stop being unkind, don’t you realise the poor girl had a personal space violated…
But it was a Labour space that she should have given up.....
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
Its funny even with a massive majority the map doesn't look that different due to the rural/urban split.
Snow Crash was my favorite of his. Full of wonderful off-the-wall ideas, such as: citizenship is now by fast-food brand loyalty rather than nationality; a bad guy riding around in a side-car bike with a nuclear bomb which is triggered if his heart stops, so the police protect him from others as he commits crimes; and, of course, well before its time, wikipedia (although he called it another name)
Isn't that the one where the main character is literally called Hiro Protagonist?
That's the one. Another fantastic read, though his description of the Metaverse is a little creaky. We've come a long way since then.
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
Stop being unkind, don’t you realise the poor girl had a personal space violated…
But it was a Labour space that she should have given up.....
Well quite – she obviously had not thought through the consequences of resigning.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
Nice bit of analysis! My thoughts after the last general election were similar - the Conservatives did pretty much as well as was reasonably possible; there were hardly any seats vulnerable to another final heave or a bit of local luck, and lots of Conservative seats which could easily fall away again. That was last year though - if the current poll is accurate then the world changes completely.
The other issue with your analysis is that they are not starting on an equal footing as the number of seats that each holds is not equal. If you assume that the current position is the 'midpoint' then you want to 'spread' the Labour seats equally amongst the Tory seats so that as well as matching the most marginal vs the most marginal, you also match the safest vs the safest. (If you see what I mean)
I do. I don't have the data to do that to hand. I should also ideally eliminate seats where the challenger is a third party too.
But what this does show is that if UNS holds, a given swing to Labour wins them more seats than a given swing to the Tories does likewise, which IIRC was the question.
Always loved the throwaway line in Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon regarding one of the protagonist's interlocutors:
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
I've not read that particular Stephenson book, and I can already see it's as odd at times as his other works.
It's only piece of fiction I know of that comes with it's own professionally produced cryptographic algorithm. In Perl, if I remember correctly. I wonder if it's eligible for export controls?
Famously not. That is how they got around export controls for PGP back in the day. Phil Zimmerman published PGP Source Code and Internals containing the full source code of PGP, which was distributed widely to many countries as export of books is protected under the First Amendment. Anyone wanting to build the tool would cut the covers off and OCR the book into their system and compile it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Good_Privacy
Ah... I wasn't sure if the first amendment covered exports or not.
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
Stop being unkind, don’t you realise the poor girl had a personal space violated…
But it was a Labour space that she should have given up.....
Well quite – she obviously had not thought through the consequences of resigning. Good bye comfy office.
But but where do my staff sit, where do my files go, where will we make coffee?
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
I think it is safe to forget about plurality! Labour's task is to avoid an existential meltdown.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
I think it is safe to forget about plurality! Labour's task is to avoid an existential meltdown.
Seats in the range of those needed to gain a plurality (Broxtowe, Hastings) look achievable, except for Corbyn. Those in the range to get a majority (Shrewsbury, Canterbury) don't.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
I'm a republican for the same reasons I'm a Conservative (I believe in hard work and earning what you have) but I would never dream of insulting a baby/toddler for political reasons. That sort of hate is tragic.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
Mottram level I'd say
What is Mottram level? Are you referring to the almost-permanent traffic jam on the A57 in Tameside?
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
Mottram level I'd say
What is Mottram level? Are you referring to the almost-permanent traffic jam on the A57 in Tameside?
No more the explosive outburst by former mandarin Sir Richard Mottram
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
That latter assumption would be even more stupid than the decision to have a go at the royal family from her professional position.
Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.
I live in one of the richest areas of Wales.However, if Monmouthshire were English, it would immediately become one of England's poorest regions. It really is dire.
Seema Malhotra loses complaint for room entry to a place she should have given up weeks ago..... Roomgate? Is this really the best future talent that the Labour party have?
Stop being unkind, don’t you realise the poor girl had a personal space violated…
But it was a Labour space that she should have given up.....
Well quite – she obviously had not thought through the consequences of resigning.
Good bye comfy office.
I'm tempted to speculate whether she will get it back if she unresigns.
Picture a speechbubble saying "I'll show my compatriots what's really what", as he gets down to cut-and-pasting from "Fjordman", Melanie Phillips, Bat Ye'or and Jeremy Clarkson, explaining how fighting Eurabia and Eurostan is the way forward. Thus he spews on about the Battle of Vienna in 1683 ("Europe" standing up to "Islam"), which is why he entitled his manifesto "2083: A European Declaration of Independence", with a big cross on the front of it. Prior to committing the killings, he prayed or worshipped in a church, taking the view that "there is no atheism in the trenches". There have been well-known personages in Britain who have taken a similar view of the utility of Christianity, but this margin is too small for us to discuss them
Breivik's freemasonic membership? Maybe he got into it from a "Christian warrior knights" angle. Maybe he needed something a bit different in flavour from his main fantasies, in order to strengthen his commitment to them. (Here is a guy who certainly knows how to train his mind.) Or maybe his controllers sent him into it for reasons of misdirection. Breivik didn't go postal. He prepared for years - that's not going postal. I believe he was in contact with others. The small "IT" business he ran with its international presence was most peculiar. Again - not sufficient space to discuss that here. In any case, his freemasonic membership gave the bastard a good excuse for playing dress-up, and he circulated pictures of himself in masonic garb as well as kitted out as a "Marxist hunter".
Very interesting, but personally I've always had a strong suspicion of false flag about the whole thing. The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later.
Explain what you mean by false flag. It sounds like an idiotic conspiracy theory.
False flag = an attack made to look like ISIS, but carried out by their enemies in order to generate a casus belli. Like the Gleiwitz incident.
Sorry, should have made it clear that I know what 'false flag' means but couldn't see how anybody would think that Breivik's carnage could be anything of the sort. This was the bit that I still need explaining: "The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later."
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
Mottram level I'd say
What is Mottram level? Are you referring to the almost-permanent traffic jam on the A57 in Tameside?
No more the explosive outburst by former mandarin Sir Richard Mottram
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
Mottram level I'd say
What is Mottram level? Are you referring to the almost-permanent traffic jam on the A57 in Tameside?
No more the explosive outburst by former mandarin Sir Richard Mottram
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
Nice bit of analysis! My thoughts after the last general election were similar - the Conservatives did pretty much as well as was reasonably possible; there were hardly any seats vulnerable to another final heave or a bit of local luck, and lots of Conservative seats which could easily fall away again. That was last year though - if the current poll is accurate then the world changes completely.
The other issue with your analysis is that they are not starting on an equal footing as the number of seats that each holds is not equal. If you assume that the current position is the 'midpoint' then you want to 'spread' the Labour seats equally amongst the Tory seats so that as well as matching the most marginal vs the most marginal, you also match the safest vs the safest. (If you see what I mean)
I do. I don't have the data to do that to hand. I should also ideally eliminate seats where the challenger is a third party too.
But what this does show is that if UNS holds, a given swing to Labour wins them more seats than a given swing to the Tories does likewise, which IIRC was the question.
That's true - I think that my point was in part that is a simple consequence of Labour having "fewer" seats, and so you would expect them to have fewer seats in the 0-5% band, but you would also expect them to have fewer seats in the 50%+ band as they just have 'fewer' seats.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
That latter assumption would be even more stupid than the decision to have a go at the royal family from her professional position.
All in all, sounds like she really deserves her massive salary, doesn't it?
I imagine she spends a lot of time spitting to her chums about how 'stupid' Brexit voters are as well.
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
I agree. Labour have very safe seats. 20% lead required to really move things. That said,Tories win 165 seats at General even if Corbyn was Tory Leader!
Labour's voter allocation is very inefficient. They've stockpiled voters in safe seats where they can do no good, and can't reach them in marginals where they actually matter.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
I think it is safe to forget about plurality! Labour's task is to avoid an existential meltdown.
Seats in the range of those needed to gain a plurality (Broxtowe, Hastings) look achievable, except for Corbyn. Those in the range to get a majority (Shrewsbury, Canterbury) don't.
I was talking in terms assuming Corbyn is still there, which he will be.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.
He obviously realised that we are a net contributor, and therefore "EU funds" are just UK taxpayers' money recycled through Brussels.
Given the spate of attacks in mainland Europe by Middle eastern immigrants, are their still Remainers that would like to rerun the referendum at the moment?
I'd say Leave would win more easily
Now now please do not goad them. Remoaners are shifting into the final stages of mourning.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Now I would sign a petition to get her removed from that job. She is clearly unfit to represent our nation.
Well, clearly she's a bit of a d*ckhead herself, given who she modelled her looks on:
:-o
She is white, on £80k a year for a taxpayer funded organisation, lives in a nice pad in town with a progressive musician partner and there are photos of her enjoying large glasses champagne online.
I'd say she was the epitome of 'white privilege' and it's her comments that show her up to be the f**king d**khead, not Prince George.
She's entitled to her opinion. Imo she's an ugly c**t and a nasty b***h.
Is it also your opinion that killing lefties should not be a crime?
What is your obsession with lefties being killed? It makes you look unhinged.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Not wishing to p*ss on everyone's chips, but I remember very similar conversations prior to the omnishambles budget. Nailed on victory, perpetual rule, etc.
Luckily EdM saved the day, but the four years to the [presumed] next election is an eternity in politics.
EDIT: Like the rest of the country, I forgot the LibDems (who they?) sterling contribution in giving the Tories a majority.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
That latter assumption would be even more stupid than the decision to have a go at the royal family from her professional position.
All in all, sounds like she really deserves her massive salary, doesn't it?
I imagine she spends a lot of time spitting to her chums about how 'stupid' Brexit voters are as well.
I remember talking to a fella who was a fairly highly-paid public sector employee about this - he was appalled at the way many of his peers were fairly free and easy about sharing their political opinions on facebook etc. 'Privately, I may agree with them', he said, 'but I genuinely don't think they realise that many people don't.'
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.
EU structural funds pay back into the UK a tiny fraction of what the UK pays into the funds.
So yes it does nothing for them. There is no reason the UK can't provide those funds directly without the EU slicing and dicing and giving a fraction of it out.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.
He obviously realised that we are a net contributor, and therefore "EU funds" are just UK taxpayers' money recycled through Brussels.
May well be the case, but at least the EU gave a f***. There is no way these structural funds will come to Wales from Westminster. 'aint ever gonna happen.
She says she is sound in her socialist, atheist and republican opinions.
Seriously though, even privately why be such a dick about a child, expressing socialist, atheist and republican opinions is possible even on here without being so, and it is probably less welcoming to all three than facebook.
She would have been irritated by the photos and their prominence in the news because she thought they might increase public affection for the Royal Family for another generation.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
I'm a republican for the same reasons I'm a Conservative (I believe in hard work and earning what you have) but I would never dream of insulting a baby/toddler for political reasons. That sort of hate is tragic.
I kind of admire republicans for their tireless optimisim in the face of overwhelming futility and the rather adorable optimism in thinking adding a One More Politician layer up top could fix anything.
Less enamoured about calling a three year old child a cnut, obvs.
I've seen a couple of intv on Sky with a French journalist - talking about anger in Paris and elsewhere that things have now gone too far/the people don't believe the politicians know what to do and incapable of protecting them.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
Which is why the EU was pumping in infrastructure funds. I seem to recall a vox on TV where someone in the Welsh valleys was interviewed outside a brand new apprenticeship training centre (all paid for by EU structural funds as the sign said), saying the EU had done nothing for Wales and they were voting Leave.
He obviously realised that we are a net contributor, and therefore "EU funds" are just UK taxpayers' money recycled through Brussels.
It's more that areas of Wales have been in receipt of Objective-1 and successor funding programs for decades, and the Welsh economy is still a basket case. In this aspect, its similar to Scotland - Labour were in power since Adam was a lad and nothing changed.
A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.
When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.
Comments
Did she? Or did someone who knew her pick up something from private correspondence and tell the Press?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/17/are-french-prisons-finishing-schools-for-terrorism
"He was born Graf Heinrich Karl Wilhelm Otto Friedrich von Ubersetzcnseehafcnstadt, but changed his name to Nigel St. John Gloamthorpby,a.k.a. Lord Woadmire, in 1914".
As ever, it needed stronger editing and he still can't do endings, but it's an amazingly fun read - it's part homage to the Greatest Generation and part modern crypto-thriller.
Strongly recommended - it's one of the few books that have actually had me crying with laughter.
Her white privilege comment might be rather OTT, but it is a reasonable personal opinion, and certainly not as insulting as the Metro's link text would have you believe.
I took these lists: http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour and http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative, and for each rank pair (Con most marginal-Lab most marginal; Con 2nd most marginal-Lab 2nd most marginal; etc.) I calculated a "Labour safer by" figure as (Lab swing to lose - Con swing to lose) /Con swing to lose, which gives the following chart:
So at nearly all points the Labour seat is safer, often considerably so.
Please point out all the obvious flaws in my argument!
Not saying conspiracies have never existed, I'm sure false flag actions have happened, but most of the time the chances of them being true are slight because it relies on hundreds if not thousands of people being in on it, with a level of discreetness and efficiency our governments only wish they were capable of.
If the Lab swing to lose is 0.2%, then yes, that's twice 0.1%, but it is not "100% safer" as most people would think of it.
Still, interesting reading.
I'd say Leave would win more easily
The cryptographic equivalent is "Amateurs worry about algorithms. Professionals worry about key distribution."
I used to do cryptographic software assurance for a living (presumably because I'd committed some ghastly crime in a previous life, and this was my karmic burden). I've seen terrible things, so you've definitely got the right approach
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Good_Privacy
Good bye comfy office.
But what this does show is that if UNS holds, a given swing to Labour wins them more seats than a given swing to the Tories does likewise, which IIRC was the question.
To be the largest party in (October? 2018? 2020?) general election they'll need to flip a lot of voters that voted Tory in 2015. 4 out of every 5 voters they'd need to reach a plurality in fact will be soft Tories in suburban English marginals.
They are so fucked.
She would have assumed her social media account was a safe space to vent about it and assert what she would like to think are her progressive egalitarian and meritocratic credentials.
I live in one of the richest areas of Wales.However, if Monmouthshire were English, it would immediately become one of England's poorest regions. It really is dire.
This was the bit that I still need explaining:
"The world agenda needed a right wing Christian terrorist to be soaked in blood. If Breivik hadn't come along, he would have had to have been invented sooner or later."
Yeah, that sounds plausible.
Welsh education is also a disaster area.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/hillary-this-is-why-democrats-are-still-struggling.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-0&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion®ion=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article
I imagine she spends a lot of time spitting to her chums about how 'stupid' Brexit voters are as well.
''Wales is becoming a problem for Labour simply because it's done nothing to improve the Welsh economy. Pembrokeshire and the valleys are poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries.''
Welsh education is also a disaster area.'
Is education as big a disaster as healthcare ?
Luckily EdM saved the day, but the four years to the [presumed] next election is an eternity in politics.
EDIT: Like the rest of the country, I forgot the LibDems (who they?) sterling contribution in giving the Tories a majority.
https://twitter.com/olivercooper/status/757967357079916544
So yes it does nothing for them. There is no reason the UK can't provide those funds directly without the EU slicing and dicing and giving a fraction of it out.
Less enamoured about calling a three year old child a cnut, obvs.
I don;t know. Healthcare can always cry Money! Its not so easy for education.
It's not inconceivable she could get to c.22% to 30% of Scottish votes, but probably not higher.
Still, that could block a lot of what the SNP want to do.
Sturgeon's safe for as long as she wants it, pretty much. But her successor might find it a lot more difficult.
Have to say, I'm very glad I don't live there.
A lot of money has gone on structural things (e.g. dualling the HoTV road) but money doesn't solve the fundamental issues. It's a challenge for all governments - throwing money at a problem does not guarantee success.
When you look at the job creation side of things, EU funding has been very poor value for money. The last figures I've seen were from 2014, and it was claimed (by a pro-EU source) that 29,800 jobs had been created, which is pitiful.