Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Nobody's interested in local elections.They are happy to let the Lib Dems run the bin collections if it keeps them happy.
Momentum Rugby @MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan
I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.
Apparently President Francois Hollande has arrived in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray to be briefed by police. – We should be hearing the prepared excuses at any moment.
I haven't been able to check in much over the last few months. Is NPXMP still around? I'd be interested in his view of the Labour party, its MPs and its leadership. Has it evolved since his strong support of JC during 2015?
He seems to be taking a bit of a break the last few weeks - I assume either on holiday or wisely avoiding the abuse he'd take for daring to be Corbyn supporting during the period of the leadership election.
Avoiding abuse sounds wise, especially as there's lots of lovely sunshine to enjoy instead.
It's not as if his advocacy on this forum would lead to minds being changed. Views are too entrenched - at least on the issue of JC and his [in]competence.
Momentum Rugby @MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan
I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.
When did the Wilson Government in the 70s win a landslide?
I think Momentum's grasp of history is nearly as bad as Morris Dancer's
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
It's one thing to choose a local Councillor and it's another thing to choose a government/Prime Minister.
At a national level, Theresa/Conservatives are currently the only "show" in town (unlike in 2007) Even UKIP is currently rudderless. They'll never be a better time to Mrs May to secure a decent majority that can see through the challenges Brexit will present.
Mr. Price, only a guess, but they might double their numbers (that'd be the top end of my expectations). The Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb in charge [I know I keep banging on about that, but they would].
If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?
Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?
Both of the following would require Labour support: Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.
The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.
Is a government really going to declare No Confidence in itself? That sounds like a PR disaster
Works fine in Germany. And the Opposition will already have declared No Confidence in itself anyway.
What if the Opposition votes Confidence though (and enough Tory MPs don't turn up etc) so that the motion fails?
Mr. Price, only a guess, but they might double their numbers (that'd be the top end of my expectations). The Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb in charge [I know I keep banging on about that, but they would].
I want it to be Norman Lamb too.
I've got a Lamb led Lib Dems to the slaughter pun waiting to go
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Nobody's interested in local elections.They are happy to let the Lib Dems run the bin collections if it keeps them happy.
Pretty much all of the LD success has been in tiny Parishes or in places they didn't even put up candidates last time. Not sure there has been a local where they have got over 1200 votes. In the metropolitan and London boroughs in the last 6 months the status quo has remained. But if it makes you feel better Mark so be it..
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
I would tend to concur..They would win 3-5 back in the west country and possibly regain a couple around london
President Hollande said the two terrorists identified themselves as Isil operatives. Speaking outside the church, Mr Hollande described the assault as “an ignoble terrorist attack."
Mr Hollande said the small community of Saint-Etienne-du Rouvray was “horribly affected by the cowardly murder of the parish priest by two terrorists who claimed to be from Dash (Isil).”
----------
"horribly affected" ....it makes it sounds like what has happened is train station is going to be closed for the next 6 months due to work on the line. Not a terrorist attack where the long time local priest got his head lopped off.
If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?
Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?
Both of the following would require Labour support: Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.
The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.
Is a government really going to declare No Confidence in itself? That sounds like a PR disaster
Works fine in Germany. And the Opposition will already have declared No Confidence in itself anyway.
What if the Opposition votes Confidence though (and enough Tory MPs don't turn up etc) so that the motion fails?
You turn up to that vote if you want to fight your seat.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Unless Labour formally split, which seems unlikely, it's not worth risking it for May. Although if she does do poorly in 2020 this will be called her Brown moment.
It's not quite the same though simply because a dissolution would require a vote in Parliament - which is in recess until September 5th. By that time the 'honeymoon' effect will probably have begun to wear off . May must know that there is no way that Labour would facilitate an election whilst its leadership election is taking place which means that realistically she could not ask for a dissolution until Parliament reassembles post the party conferences on 10th October.Even if Labour played ball the earliest election dates would be 17th or 24th November. More likely that Labour makes her go down the Confidence Vote route which would push Polling Day back into December. Does not sound at all likely to me!
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
Thanks - any particular gains from Con? I would have thought the new MPs would be well insulated.
Mr. Price, only a guess, but they might double their numbers (that'd be the top end of my expectations). The Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb in charge [I know I keep banging on about that, but they would].
Farron has been almost totally ineffectual and he's failed to make any hay out of Labour's very deep woes.
Some of that isn't his fault, now the LDs are so small, but the whole point of being leader of that party at the moment is to get noticed.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
Thanks - any particular gains from Con? I would have thought the new MPs would be well insulated.
Tania Matthais in Twickenham and James Berry in Kingston could be in trouble. Think Scully in Sutton is safe.
Mr. Price, only a guess, but they might double their numbers (that'd be the top end of my expectations). The Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb in charge [I know I keep banging on about that, but they would].
I just can't see how they're winning any seats off the Tories in the circumstances (double incumbency and - in most cases - quite large majorities given they were gains). But I'm genuinely interested to see what LDs think on this.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
I would tend to concur..They would win 3-5 back in the west country and possibly regain a couple around london
Where?
Sorry, but i don't see the evidence for the LDs doubling their seat numbers at all. A lot of the Tory gains from last year will now be subject to a 1st term incumbency bonus plus the coalition that might have held together for the outgoing LD MP, who has now left, might have fractured further
It'll be Thursday 10th November. Parliament resumes Monday 10th October. Government tables the early election motion having announced it in May's speech. She taunts Labour MPs to put up or shut up. Corbyn whips them to support the motion, they say "FUCK YOU". The doomed will probably vote against.
But all they need are 436 MPs - two thirds. Tories plus all other parties is 411. Even taking the speaker and deputies out you'll find 30 MPs on the Labour MPs for a general election.
So whats the process then? Parliament wraps itself up by the end of the week. Formally prorogues Monday 17th. 17 working days later is the general election.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
Thanks - any particular gains from Con? I would have thought the new MPs would be well insulated.
Must be some potential in SW London I would imagine. Twickenham, Sutton and Kingston spring to mind. Maybe Thornbury and Yate and Bath at a push in the South West. Struggling after that tbh..
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Nobody's interested in local elections.They are happy to let the Lib Dems run the bin collections if it keeps them happy.
Pretty much all of the LD success has been in tiny Parishes or in places they didn't even put up candidates last time. Not sure there has been a local where they have got over 1200 votes. In the metropolitan and London boroughs in the last 6 months the status quo has remained. But if it makes you feel better Mark so be it..
Dorset Sherborne and Southwark Surrey Docks are just 2 examples from June where the LDs polled over 1200 votes
Momentum can Fuck Right Off. We the Labour Party can't meet. Momentum can because "we aren't the Labour Party" ye at their meetings they plot to call Labour Party members to lobby them about the leader of the Labour Party but they don't obey the rules involved with being the Labour Party.
So go Fuck Yourselves Momentum and take these paranoid lunatics with you.
That was a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Labour Party. We don't trust us. But you the electorate will. According to Momentum.
Pity the party trying to rig it so members don't get a say in things. The Toryrags who took over teh control of labour just cannot countenance democracy in the party, what do the pleb members know about anything.
There is a fear that the attack in Normandy was subject to video recording. No one is yet sure but its bugging the authorities.
Wouldn't be surprised if the French authorities take down social media sites for a while.
Pointless...if they recorded it and sent it to somebody, there loads of different ways they could done so. Also, they could have live streamed it for somebody.
President Hollande said the two terrorists identified themselves as Isil operatives. Speaking outside the church, Mr Hollande described the assault as “an ignoble terrorist attack."
Mr Hollande said the small community of Saint-Etienne-du Rouvray was “horribly affected by the cowardly murder of the parish priest by two terrorists who claimed to be from Dash (Isil).”
----------
"horribly affected" ....it makes it sounds like what has happened is train station is going to be closed for the next 6 months due to work on the line. Not a terrorist attack where the long time local priest got his head lopped off.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS would make a better government than Blair and his team?". In the end I didn't have to make the decision
Which way did you vote in 2001?
Conservative, naturally. Hague was a credible PM-in-waiting.
It'll be Thursday 10th November. Parliament resumes Monday 10th October. Government tables the early election motion having announced it in May's speech. She taunts Labour MPs to put up or shut up. Corbyn whips them to support the motion, they say "FUCK YOU". The doomed will probably vote against.
But all they need are 436 MPs - two thirds. Tories plus all other parties is 411. Even taking the speaker and deputies out you'll find 30 MPs on the Labour MPs for a general election.
So whats the process then? Parliament wraps itself up by the end of the week. Formally prorogues Monday 17th. 17 working days later is the general election.
A source close to the investigation tells Le Figaro that one of the assailants was wearing an electronic tag. He had been given the tag as an alternative to doing prison time for a prior offence, the newspaper reports.
The Nice nutter also got spared prison time for a violent attack only a few months previous.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Nobody's interested in local elections.They are happy to let the Lib Dems run the bin collections if it keeps them happy.
Pretty much all of the LD success has been in tiny Parishes or in places they didn't even put up candidates last time. Not sure there has been a local where they have got over 1200 votes. In the metropolitan and London boroughs in the last 6 months the status quo has remained. But if it makes you feel better Mark so be it..
Dorset Sherborne and Southwark Surrey Docks are just 2 examples from June where the LDs polled over 1200 votes
Thursday should be interesting..there is a byelection in Carshalton and Wallington in a seat previously held by a LD who has resigned because he has been arrested on Fraud charges. Should on the face of it be an easy LD hold but the way the LDs have been playing it locally hasn't gone down that well with the residents. We shall see.
I haven't been able to check in much over the last few months. Is NPXMP still around? I'd be interested in his view of the Labour party, its MPs and its leadership. Has it evolved since his strong support of JC during 2015?
He seems to be taking a bit of a break the last few weeks - I assume either on holiday or wisely avoiding the abuse he'd take for daring to be Corbyn supporting during the period of the leadership election.
Avoiding abuse sounds wise, especially as there's lots of lovely sunshine to enjoy instead.
It's not as if his advocacy on this forum would lead to minds being changed. Views are too entrenched - at least on the issue of JC and his [in]competence.
Unlike the right wing junta boys on here, they are open and free to everyones views and opinions are they not.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
I would tend to concur..They would win 3-5 back in the west country and possibly regain a couple around london
Where?
Sorry, but i don't see the evidence for the LDs doubling their seat numbers at all. A lot of the Tory gains from last year will now be subject to a 1st term incumbency bonus plus the coalition that might have held together for the outgoing LD MP, who has now left, might have fractured further
Yes a number of the Tory gainers will get an incumbency bounce but there are 2 or 3 who seem to have gone out of their way to upset their new constituents . Cornwall seems to be moving rapidly away from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems though I am not fully sure why .
The England alone figures from latest ICM poll. CON 47% LAB 26% A 21% lead
Have you seen the regional splits?
South (inc London, presumably) - Con lead by 21 Midlands - Con lead by 24 (!!) North - Con lead by 8 (!) Wales - Con lead by 9 (!) Scotland - SNP lead by 26 over Lab (Lab lead by 2 over Con)
The England alone figures from latest ICM poll. CON 47% LAB 26% A 21% lead
Have you seen the regional splits?
South (inc London, presumably) - Con lead by 21 Midlands - Con lead by 24 (!!) North - Con lead by 8 (!) Wales - Con lead by 9 (!) Scotland - SNP lead by 26 over Lab (Lab lead by 2 over Con)
Actually looking at 2015 results, the swing in each case is not too far from expected.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
I would tend to concur..They would win 3-5 back in the west country and possibly regain a couple around london
Where?
Sorry, but i don't see the evidence for the LDs doubling their seat numbers at all. A lot of the Tory gains from last year will now be subject to a 1st term incumbency bonus plus the coalition that might have held together for the outgoing LD MP, who has now left, might have fractured further
Yes a number of the Tory gainers will get an incumbency bounce but there are 2 or 3 who seem to have gone out of their way to upset their new constituents . Cornwall seems to be moving rapidly away from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems though I am not fully sure why .
Do you have examples? Which 2 or 3 are you referring to?
If this ICM poll were repeated at a general election then May would do even fractionally better than the 42. 4% to 27. 6% landslide Thatcher had over Foot in 1983, Labour would be annihilated
A source close to the investigation tells Le Figaro that one of the assailants was wearing an electronic tag. He had been given the tag as an alternative to doing prison time for a prior offence, the newspaper reports.
The Nice nutter also got spared prison time for a violent attack only a few months previous.
Oh boy, if this is true, the French public are going to go nuts. Le Pen is well on her way.
If this ICM poll were repeated at a general election then May would do even fractionally better than the 42. 4% to 27. 6% landslide Thatcher had over Foot in 1983, Labour would be annihilated
A source close to the investigation tells Le Figaro that one of the assailants was wearing an electronic tag. He had been given the tag as an alternative to doing prison time for a prior offence, the newspaper reports.
The Nice nutter also got spared prison time for a violent attack only a few months previous.
Oh boy, if this is true, the French public are going to go nuts. Le Pen is well on her way.
The England alone figures from latest ICM poll. CON 47% LAB 26% A 21% lead
Have you seen the regional splits?
South (inc London, presumably) - Con lead by 21 Midlands - Con lead by 24 (!!) North - Con lead by 8 (!) Wales - Con lead by 9 (!) Scotland - SNP lead by 26 over Lab (Lab lead by 2 over Con)
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
Thanks - any particular gains from Con? I would have thought the new MPs would be well insulated.
Tania Matthais in Twickenham and James Berry in Kingston could be in trouble. Think Scully in Sutton is safe.
Tania Mathias is a wet pro-Remain AB professional Tory of precisely the type that'd go down well in Twickenham.
Kingston has very good demographics for the Tories. Now the LDs have lost it, I doubt they'll regain it.
Places like Bath are probably the vulnerable ones.
Mr. Price, only a guess, but they might double their numbers (that'd be the top end of my expectations). The Lib Dems would be better off with Lamb in charge [I know I keep banging on about that, but they would].
Farron has been almost totally ineffectual and he's failed to make any hay out of Labour's very deep woes.
Some of that isn't his fault, now the LDs are so small, but the whole point of being leader of that party at the moment is to get noticed.
I agree entirely. For a Lib Dem recovery even to 15-20 would need them to take their chances.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!
If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?
Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?
Both of the following would require Labour support: Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.
The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.
There is a view that if the Government lost a such a Confidence Vote it would have to resign and that the Leader of the Opposition would be asked to form a Government. He would the have 14 days to win a Confidence Vote himself . Obviously he would fail to do so - but might remain as incumbent caretaker PM during the subsequent general election. Closest precedent is Balfour resigning in December 1905 and Campbell - Bannerman being invited to take office despite the Tories still having a majority of more than 100. He immediately called an election for January 1906 and won by a landslide.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!
Worked in 1918 - um, except we lost (southern) Ireland...
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
The British Royal family are probably one of the most diverse families in Britain. – if they lived on a council estate Aunty would probably run a panorama special praising them, instead we get a dumb arse question as above.
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!
Worked in 1918 - um, except we lost (southern) Ireland...
I think end of Great War counts as a critical reason to have an election.
Reminds me of the opinion polls in September 2007 showing a substantial Labour lead during Brown's honeymoon period . Those polls were not reflected then in the council by elections of the time and similarly by elections at the moment are showing Conservatives are losing support not gaining it despite UKIP support evaporating faster than water in the Sahara Desert ..
Genuine q, Mark - how many MPs do you think the Lib Dems could win in a Spring 2017 election (assuming Labour still in one piece but still led by Corbyn)?
15 -20
I would tend to concur..They would win 3-5 back in the west country and possibly regain a couple around london
Where?
Sorry, but i don't see the evidence for the LDs doubling their seat numbers at all. A lot of the Tory gains from last year will now be subject to a 1st term incumbency bonus plus the coalition that might have held together for the outgoing LD MP, who has now left, might have fractured further
Yes a number of the Tory gainers will get an incumbency bounce but there are 2 or 3 who seem to have gone out of their way to upset their new constituents . Cornwall seems to be moving rapidly away from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems though I am not fully sure why .
Do you have examples? Which 2 or 3 are you referring to?
Where do you expect to make gains in Cornwall?
Look at the result in Wadebridge earlier this year in the seat vacated by the new Conservative MP for Cornwall North . Although the number of Independents will make it difficult there is a good chance of Lib Dems taking overall control of Cornwall UA next year . Will keep to myself for now a couple of examples I could give . Most new Conservative MPs will no doubt get an incumbency bounce but there will always be a few Louise Mensch types amongst them
If this ICM poll were repeated at a general election then May would do even fractionally better than the 42. 4% to 27. 6% landslide Thatcher had over Foot in 1983, Labour would be annihilated
Stop it, you are making me laugh too much.
Did Labour ever think they would be mourning Michael Foot's leadership?
My guesstimate of a Tory Majority of 150 isn't far off then. Over on The Labour Party forum this poll has already confidently been referred to as "total bullshit". So thats alright then.
I supported the NEC interpretation of the rule book that put Corbyn on the ballot without nominations. Might seem like a daft rule but I don't think the writers contemplated a leader not supported by 20% of the PLP with mass support in the membership. Anyway, perhaps the high court might save us by overturning the decision...
Regarding an early election I keep banging on about November because why wouldn't she? Labour will be on our knees at conference, demoralised, divided, heading from leadership battle into witch hunts and pogroms. We can only go up from there or split or Corbyn drops dear or other events (dear boy, events). Her majority in waiting can only shrink from what she could get in November.
So the time to go is the autumn. May is already making progress on a deal over Brexit - it won't satisfy many Leave voters, it won't be exactly what was on the referendum question, it won't be what the majority of MPs want and besides she has no working majority. And Labour will be in ruins.
Why would she not announce in her speech that upon Parliament's return the following Monday that she will seek an early election and its over to Labour MPs if they want to block it.
Well this poll is out of line with Opinium which puts the Tories just 6 % ahead. If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December. I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
The Opinium poll is the one that looks out of kilter, this is the third double digit lead.
I can't believe we are seriously debating an election in late November or early December, unless there is a critical reason why there had to be one (e.g. loss of actual majority). This is the UK. An election in darkest December? Get a grip people!!!
They're not held on the beach, you know.
Any politician who plans to hold an election in late November or early December without a pressing reason is off their heads imho.
The identities of the attackers are already known to the authorities. One, who lived close to the church, is said to have left for Syria in 2015 to try and join ISIS, but he was arrested in Turkey.
He was jailed for terrorist offences following a short trial in France, before being released on March 2 this year. Bail conditions included returning to live with his parents, wearing an electronic tag, and reporting to his local police station.
I am going to guess that his parents will be shocked, shocked I tell you. He was a quiet boy, no sign of being radicalized, must have had mental health problems, racist French society, now we must fear backlash against French Muslims.....
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
The British Royal family are probably one of the most diverse families in Britain. – if they lived on a council estate Aunty would probably run a panorama special praising them, instead we get a dumb arse question as above.
The freedom to marry a person of one's choosing must surely be outside the realm of being "sexist" "racist" or "homophobic".
Momentum Rugby @MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan
I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.
Indeed, as the protomomentumists sang,
The workers' flag is palest pink Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink Now Harold's done the same as Hugh The workers' flag is brightest blue.
(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)
If there is an early general election, I've already written on it, here's an excerpt.
Why would Labour support the Tories in repealing the FTPA if it looked like the Tories would win a GE handsomely?
Why would Labour need to support the Tories in order for them to repeal the FTPA?
Both of the following would require Labour support: Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:
If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
The first wouldn't. With a working majority the Conservatives just have to support the vote of no confidence. Then over the next two weeks vote down all attempts to form a new government.
The only substantive effect of the FTPA is to give the opposition parties an additional two weeks in which to gear up for a snap general election.
That would be a 'brave' act of Mrs May's government. If you've got no confidence in yourselves, why should we have any?
Not so brave when you have a 16% poll lead. And anyway, May can be brutally honest and say that we only have a FTPA because Nick Clegg insisted on it, say she agrees with Clegg's successor as well as the rest of the opposition that there should be an early general election so that a new government has a mandate in the wake of the Brexit vote, and state that she is therefore going to arrange a vote in the HoC to bring that about. No-one would bat an eyelid if that had to be done through a no confidence vote, in fact it might even win her plaudits for her candour.
But it would make her appear as a barefaced liar given that she has already on numerous occasions denied such an intent!
If you assume a 65% turnout 27% of the electorate is 17.55% of the adult population, almost 1 in 5. Who are these people? Do they pay no attention at all?
As I said on the previous thread Labour is truly a name worth fighting for. It has a bedrock of support that almost nothing will diminish. A major problem for the development of any sane centre left party.
In the darkest days of the leadership of IDS, I remember thinking: "If there's an election, can I in all honesty persuade myself that this shower under IDS would make a better government than Blair and his team?". In the end I didn't have to make the decision, but I remember thinking that it would make sense to vote Conservative in order to ensure that the party wasn't wiped out completely and would eventually be able to get its act together, but only on the strict understanding that there was no danger that they might actually win under IDS.
I imagine a lot of traditional Labour supporters will reason in the same way about Labour today.
I am a Labour member who will not vote Labour in a GE while the party is led by Corbyn.
May should do Labour a favour and go to the country on a Brexit-super-super-super-lite ticket. She'd solve the European problem and get rid of Corbyn. Shafting the eurosceptic right in her own party in the process.
I haven't been able to check in much over the last few months. Is NPXMP still around? I'd be interested in his view of the Labour party, its MPs and its leadership. Has it evolved since his strong support of JC during 2015?
Evolved would be one way to put it. It's certainly got stronger.
Yes it had evolved into madness last time I looked
I haven't been able to check in much over the last few months. Is NPXMP still around? I'd be interested in his view of the Labour party, its MPs and its leadership. Has it evolved since his strong support of JC during 2015?
Evolved would be one way to put it. It's certainly got stronger.
Yes it had evolved into madness last time I looked
I haven't been able to check in much over the last few months. Is NPXMP still around? I'd be interested in his view of the Labour party, its MPs and its leadership. Has it evolved since his strong support of JC during 2015?
Evolved would be one way to put it. It's certainly got stronger.
Yes it had evolved into madness last time I looked
Blairite Messenger: Choose your next words carefully, Mr. Corbyn. They may be your last as Labour Leader.
Jeremy Corbyn: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"? [He unsheathes and points his sword at the Messenger's throat]
Blairite Messenger: Madman! You're a madman!
Jeremy Corbyn: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.[referring to the well]
Blairite Messenger: No man, Tory or Labour, no man threatens a messenger!
Jeremy Corbyn: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to Islington's city steps. You insult my wife. You threaten my Party with slavery and death! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Bankster. Perhaps you should have done the same!
Blairite Messenger: This is blasphemy! This is madness!
Jeremy Corbyn: MADNESS...? This is LABOUR! [He kicks the Blairite messenger down the well]
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
Not just the BBC:
BBC Talkback @BBCTalkback "Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555
The problem with Theresa May calling a General Election is that it could become EURef #2 and no-one on the winning side wants to see that. It's also the only way in the immediate future that Labour could outperform current polls.
So I can't see it.
For as long as she has Blairites backing her on most policies she should be okay.
It'll be Thursday 10th November. Parliament resumes Monday 10th October. Government tables the early election motion having announced it in May's speech. She taunts Labour MPs to put up or shut up. Corbyn whips them to support the motion, they say "FUCK YOU". The doomed will probably vote against.
But all they need are 436 MPs - two thirds. Tories plus all other parties is 411. Even taking the speaker and deputies out you'll find 30 MPs on the Labour MPs for a general election.
So whats the process then? Parliament wraps itself up by the end of the week. Formally prorogues Monday 17th. 17 working days later is the general election.
Sorry you are wrong! Since the FTPA 25 working days must elapse between Dissolution and Polling Day . It is no longer 17 days!
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
Not just the BBC:
BBC Talkback @BBCTalkback "Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555
Privileged? They are the royal family for Pete's sake!
If this ICM poll were repeated at a general election then May would do even fractionally better than the 42. 4% to 27. 6% landslide Thatcher had over Foot in 1983, Labour would be annihilated
Stop it, you are making me laugh too much.
Did Labour ever think they would be mourning Michael Foot's leadership?
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
Not just the BBC:
BBC Talkback @BBCTalkback "Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555
Privileged? They are the royal family for Pete's sake!
I remember doing a quiz a few years ago, apparently I'm privileged as well, when everyone knows I'm a working class Northerner who is the grandson of immigrants from Pakistan
It'll be Thursday 10th November. Parliament resumes Monday 10th October. Government tables the early election motion having announced it in May's speech. She taunts Labour MPs to put up or shut up. Corbyn whips them to support the motion, they say "FUCK YOU". The doomed will probably vote against.
But all they need are 436 MPs - two thirds. Tories plus all other parties is 411. Even taking the speaker and deputies out you'll find 30 MPs on the Labour MPs for a general election.
So whats the process then? Parliament wraps itself up by the end of the week. Formally prorogues Monday 17th. 17 working days later is the general election.
Sorry you are wrong! Since the FTPA 25 working days must elapse between Dissolution and Polling Day . It is no longer 17 days!
That was an amendment in 2013. The original act did state 17 days, hence the confusion.
They are ethnically diverse. They're a Graeco-German family made good. Why are the BBC so racist?
Not just the BBC:
BBC Talkback @BBCTalkback "Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555
Privileged? They are the royal family for Pete's sake!
I remember doing a quiz a few years ago, apparently I'm privileged as well, when everyone knows I'm a working class Northerner who is the grandson of immigrants from Pakistan
The England alone figures from latest ICM poll. CON 47% LAB 26% A 21% lead
In Wales the Tories are shown as well ahead of Labour. How likely is that?
Very likely, Wales is trending towards the Tories, would take less than a 5% swing for the Tories to win the popular vote.
I think you're misunderestimating how toxic Corbyn is.
I accurately forecast Wales would back Leave, there's something interesting going on in Wales.
The most recent ITN/Yougov Wales poll still had Labour 11 % ahead of the Conservatives . You are surely experienced enough to not put too much trust in sub samples from a national poll .
Momentum Rugby @MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan
I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.
Indeed, as the protomomentumists sang,
The workers' flag is palest pink Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink Now Harold's done the same as Hugh The workers' flag is brightest blue.
(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)
The version I have is:
The people's flag is slightly pink It is not as red as most folks think We must not let the people know What socialists thought long ago
With a chorus of:
Don't let the scarlet banner float We want the middle class's vote Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer We'll stay in power for many a year
Comments
Momentum Rugby @MomentumRugby 26m26 minutes ago
Yes, a REAL socialist Govt under Corbyn can win #GE20. Look at the Wilson Govt in the 70s - a landslide win. #JezWeCan
I thought Wilson was a traitor who betrayed the working class by selling out. That's certainly how I remember the left debates in the early 1980s when I was a student.
It's not as if his advocacy on this forum would lead to minds being changed. Views are too entrenched - at least on the issue of JC and his [in]competence.
I think Momentum's grasp of history is nearly as bad as Morris Dancer's
Conservative Mark Pawsey 49.1 %
Labour Claire Edwards 27.9 %
At a national level, Theresa/Conservatives are currently the only "show" in town (unlike in 2007) Even UKIP is currently rudderless. They'll never be a better time to Mrs May to secure a decent majority that can see through the challenges Brexit will present.
She should go for it.
I've got a Lamb led Lib Dems to the slaughter pun waiting to go
Not sure there has been a local where they have got over 1200 votes.
In the metropolitan and London boroughs in the last 6 months the status quo has remained.
But if it makes you feel better Mark so be it..
Edited extra bit: msut be off.
Mr Hollande said the small community of Saint-Etienne-du Rouvray was “horribly affected by the cowardly murder of the parish priest by two terrorists who claimed to be from Dash (Isil).”
----------
"horribly affected" ....it makes it sounds like what has happened is train station is going to be closed for the next 6 months due to work on the line. Not a terrorist attack where the long time local priest got his head lopped off.
There's no point in winning a few battles against rubbish opponents, you're judged on the result of the war.
Hah, you're Darius, running away
Some of that isn't his fault, now the LDs are so small, but the whole point of being leader of that party at the moment is to get noticed.
Sorry, but i don't see the evidence for the LDs doubling their seat numbers at all. A lot of the Tory gains from last year will now be subject to a 1st term incumbency bonus plus the coalition that might have held together for the outgoing LD MP, who has now left, might have fractured further
But all they need are 436 MPs - two thirds. Tories plus all other parties is 411. Even taking the speaker and deputies out you'll find 30 MPs on the Labour MPs for a general election.
So whats the process then? Parliament wraps itself up by the end of the week. Formally prorogues Monday 17th. 17 working days later is the general election.
LAB 27% (-2)
LD 8% -1
UKIP 13% -1
GRN 4%
The MAYGASM continues!
Diane Abbott sat on the panel of an event hosted by the world’s largest lobbying firm, Edelman, four months ago.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/diane-abbott-pfizer-lobbying-company_uk_57972d2ce4b02508de472ce5?8xkfn7b9
If May made such an announcement in her Conference speech the earliest date for an election would be 17th or 24th November - depending on how long it took to tidy up parliamentary business. If May ends up having to table a Vote of No Confidence the earliest election dates would be 1st or 8th December.
I really don't swallow the idea that the public would subsequently punish an Opposition that blocked an early election. Where is the evidence for that? Only political anoraks such as us would give a toss!
A source close to the investigation tells Le Figaro that one of the assailants was wearing an electronic tag. He had been given the tag as an alternative to doing prison time for a prior offence, the newspaper reports.
The Nice nutter also got spared prison time for a violent attack only a few months previous.
South (inc London, presumably) - Con lead by 21
Midlands - Con lead by 24 (!!)
North - Con lead by 8 (!)
Wales - Con lead by 9 (!)
Scotland - SNP lead by 26 over Lab (Lab lead by 2 over Con)
https://twitter.com/BBCTalkback/status/757884515893248000
Where do you expect to make gains in Cornwall?
All that is going on in the world and people concerned about too many whiteys in the Royal family.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaXGUhCi29g
Kingston has very good demographics for the Tories. Now the LDs have lost it, I doubt they'll regain it.
Places like Bath are probably the vulnerable ones.
Remember, most people in the Commonwealth are non-white!
He was jailed for terrorist offences following a short trial in France, before being released on March 2 this year. Bail conditions included returning to live with his parents, wearing an electronic tag, and reporting to his local police station.
I am going to guess that his parents will be shocked, shocked I tell you. He was a quiet boy, no sign of being radicalized, must have had mental health problems, racist French society, now we must fear backlash against French Muslims.....
The workers' flag is palest pink
Since Gaitskell dipped it in the sink
Now Harold's done the same as Hugh
The workers' flag is brightest blue.
(Plus, as TSE says, I'd like to see the New Official Definition of the word "landslide". I think it might go a long way to explaining why Corbyn is "definitely going to win a landslide".)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/26/boris-johnsons-cat-evicted-from-number-10-after-sneaking-in-when/
Terror is the new normal for Germany and France
Update: This piece was written yesterday and so is already out of date.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/terror-new-normal-germany-france/?_ga=1.112651335.236678674.1461598864
Blairite Messenger: Choose your next words carefully, Mr. Corbyn. They may be your last as Labour Leader.
Jeremy Corbyn: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"?
[He unsheathes and points his sword at the Messenger's throat]
Blairite Messenger: Madman! You're a madman!
Jeremy Corbyn: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.[referring to the well]
Blairite Messenger: No man, Tory or Labour, no man threatens a messenger!
Jeremy Corbyn: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to Islington's city steps. You insult my wife. You threaten my Party with slavery and death! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Bankster. Perhaps you should have done the same!
Blairite Messenger: This is blasphemy! This is madness!
Jeremy Corbyn: MADNESS...? This is LABOUR!
[He kicks the Blairite messenger down the well]
I think you're misunderestimating how toxic Corbyn is.
I accurately forecast Wales would back Leave, there's something interesting going on in Wales.
BBC Talkback @BBCTalkback
"Privileged, white and funded" that's what a director of the British Council thinks of the royal family! Do you agree? Call us 03030 80 5555
So I can't see it.
For as long as she has Blairites backing her on most policies she should be okay.
The people's flag is slightly pink
It is not as red as most folks think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago
With a chorus of:
Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle class's vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year
Written during the Blair years, of course