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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited September 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition

But the best market of all and which I have had a bet on is the William Hill post-GE2015 government one. The price I like is the 9/1 that there’ll be another LD-CON coalition.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    Betfair:

    No overall maj: 2.42
    Lab overall maj: 2.86
    Con overall maj: 4.1
    Other overall maj: 160

    https://touch.betfair.com/#/market_1_101416490?ts=1379169285154
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited September 2013
    21-30 LD feels most likely to me, don't know enough about odds to think there's any good ones out there on that.

    I don't think there's any chance of a LD-Con coalition. The LD argument gfor 2015 will surely be that they took the hard choice to work with the Tories to fix things, and it mostly worked. I can see a support arragement to 'finish what they started' in terms of a budget maybe, given there will be more austerity, but no desire for a full coalition on either side.

    I'm convinced Clegg will go either late 2014, early 2015. Doesn't seem worth the bet though.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited September 2013
    kle4 said:

    I'm convinced Clegg will go either late 2014, early 2015.

    None of the prospective leaders want to take up Clegg's position as coalition shit magnet in chief just yet. For obvious reasons. Otherwise we would be hearing the same high level briefings against Clegg from his fellow ministers that Clegg himself did against Ming Campbell just before he was forced out.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited September 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm convinced Clegg will go either late 2014, early 2015.

    None of the prospective leaders want to take up Clegg's position as coalition shit magnet in chief just yet. For obvious reasons. Otherwise we would be hearing the same high level briefings against Clegg from his fellow ministers that Clegg himself did against Ming Campbell before he went.

    Agreed, not yet. But I think the party sees the benefit of parachuting in someone else 8-12 months, or even less, from the GE to superficially take some sting out of the party that Clegg has with Lab leaning voters in particular. Not that it worked for the Labor party in Aus.

    Speaking of Aus, apparently Julia Gillard feels an acute sense of loss at being shafted by her party, describing the move as cynical and shallow. Feels different when one is on the receiving end I suppose.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24090100
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT @timfoolery on bubbles

    Fraser Nelson is running the risk of looking as much a numpty on the housing market as Ed Conman at Sky.

    Why, why oh, can't journalists look at the statistics before spouting prejudices unfounded in fact? It just makes them look complete fools.

    Here is Fraser's recommendation (via Sam Fleming of The Times) to the BoE (I assume the PRA and FCA) on how to regulate the mortgage market to reduce the risk of a Brownian early noughties bubble repeating:

    Fleming proposes that Mark Carney, the new BoE Governor, seeks the powers to impose caps on loan-to-value mortgages – regionally, if needs be.

    If Fleming had only bothered to look at the latest BoE MLAR report he would have discovered that this is exactly what lenders and their regulators have been doing:

    [to be continued with chart in following post]
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT @timfoolery on bubbles [...continued] 
    BoE MLAR Report: September 2013                                  
                                  2007    |     2013    |  Change    
                                   Q1     |      Q1     |            
    --------------------------------------|-------------|------------
    LTV			                              |             |            
    < = 75%                      48.63%   |    67.02%   |  + 18.39%  
    Over 75 < = 90%              37.24%   |    30.90%   |  -  6.34%  
    Over 90 < = 95%               8.52%   |     1.62%   |  -  6.90%  
    Over 95%                      5.62%   |     0.46%   |  -  5.16%  
    Total                       100.00%   |   100.00%   |  -  0.00%  
                                          |             |            
    LTV and Income multiple               |             |            
    Over 90 < = 95%                       |             |            
    Single: 3.50 x or more        1.90%   |     0.23%   |  -  1.67%  
    Joint : 2.75 x or more        3.41%   |     0.79%   |  -  2.62%  
    Total HIM                     5.31%   |     1.02%   |  -  4.29%  
                                          |             |            
    Over 95%                              |             |            
    Single: 3.50 x or more        1.21%   |     0.16%   |  -  1.05%  
    Joint : 2.75 x or more        2.26%   |     0.09%   |  -  2.17%  
    Total HIM                     3.47%   |     0.25%   |  -  3.22%  
                                          |             |            
    High LTV (All over 90%)               |             |            
    Single: 3.50 x or more        3.11%   |     0.39%   |  -  2.72%  
    Joint : 2.75 x or more        5.67%   |     0.88%   |  -  4.79%  
    Total HIM                     8.78%   |     1.27%   |  -  7.51%
    Mark Carney, through the Financial Policy Committee and the two regulators, the PRA and FCA, already has the powers to do what your friend Sam Fleming is recommending and, what's more, Carney (and his predecessors), together with the lenders themselves, have been prudentially exercising those powers. Mortgage lending today is far, far more risk averse than it was in 2007.

    Duh, Fraser! Time to up your game!

    Note: LTV = Loan to Value
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    Doesn't seem worth the bet though.

    Much as I think your analysis sounds plausible I decided that the cost of half a pint was money I wouldn't miss. If it comes in then I can buy a bottle of scotch to numb for one night the pain of there being LDs in govt again.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    On topic

    A lot depends on how the Lib Dem party (not its leaders) would react to Cameron winning a narrow majority (i.e. not sufficient for a full term) or a lead in seats but with no prospect of a workable competing coalition.

    Clegg and his ministers will almost certainly want to keep their ministerial cars and the kudos and power of being a "governing party".

    The party however may not be so keen especially if their negotiating power has been weakened over 2010 and the number of Cabinet places on offer is likely to be commensurately fewer.

    Still 9/1 is an great price on what looks to us insiders as the most likely outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited September 2013
    I'm probably alone in not minding if the LDs stay in government next time, whoever it be with (not that I think it likely), except in the sense that they could conceivably do it eternally switching back and forth - I don't like governments to be able to relax in the comfort of a massive majority, and coalitions of two (as opposed to some of these foreign coalitions with multiple parties), especially where each party has its own internal divisions which can be quite fractious, keeps them on their toes.

    Cameron hasn't had it easy, which is a good thing and means the PM has to work hard to get things done (rather than Blair, who though I'm sure worked hard to keep his people in line, had such a commanding lead he could afford to ignore them more), although he hasn't been as adept at managing the coalition politics (most particularly his own side of it) to achieve things as I would have liked, but I think it's not a bad model for government, in theory.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    The Coalitition has been a success. I think the country would like to see it continue its good work for a further five years. The idea of a Tory majority is unattractive , a Labour one viscerally and intellectually repellent.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2013
    FPT I asked "Going into GE 2010, does anyone know what the betting was saying the day before about the likely number of LD seats?" I just wanted to see how accurate the money was in forecasting the outcome.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mark Thompson @MarkReckons
    Farron now highlighting his modest background. This is a thinly veiled leadership pitch. #ldconf

    Mark Thompson @MarkReckons
    Fsrron: "Life is short and we will all be forgotten". Tim getting a bit Dawkins there.

    Mark Thompson @MarkReckons
    "We do not compromise in our manifesto allowing a series of pre-conceded policies" - Farron - sustained round of applause

    Mark Thompson @MarkReckons
    @binny_uk He'll deny it but it's becoming increasingly obvious
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    A first, Simon Heffer outflanks Cameron on the left by opposing privatisation of Royal Mail
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2420389/Neglecting-North-lose-David-Cameron-Election.html
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    FPT I asked "Going into GE 2010, does anyone know what the betting was saying the day before about the likely number of LD seats?" I just wanted to see how accurate the money was in forecasting the outcome.

    Sorry I cannot recall exactly what the betting was . My memory is that prior to the Cleggasm the betting was pretty much spot on the actual end number of LD seats but the expected number increased as did the LD figures in the polls .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Apart from Farron, is any other LD making serious moves to succeed Clegg when the time comes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    kle4 She argues Rudd was not able to campaign on her achievements. The ALP leadership race has now begun between Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten. Gillard has said both are good candidates but Albanese is probably the best bet for party unity, A Rudd backer he was nonetheless a loyal member of Gillard's cabinet, while Shorten ultimately shafted both Rudd and Gillard. In many ways, Shorten would be another Bill Nelson, the first Liberal leader after Howard lost, who was weak and uninspiring while Albanese could be an ALP Abbott, from the left of the party, but a heavy hitter and prepared to get stuck in!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-13/anthony-albanese-to-run-for-labor-leadership/4956100
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    Latest two-party preferred figures from Australia:

    Liberal/National Coalition: 53.38%
    Labor: 46.62%

    Still about 2 million 2PP votes to be counted.

    http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,566
    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited September 2013
    Is Osborne a planNing consultant/architect..WTF
    tim .. it is maybe time you attempted growing up.
    ..totally pathetic
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    After today's events, speeches etc

    Anyone else going to have nightmare of a Rose garden press conference with Farron and Miliband in May 2015...

    I feel ill.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    After today's events, speeches etc

    Anyone else going to have nightmare of a Rose garden press conference with Farron and Miliband in May 2015...

    I feel ill.

    Oh yes, that's definitely a strong possibility, thanks to the boundaries being 15 years out of date by the time of the next election.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    UK Labour slaps down Jackie Baillie for bedroom tax scrapping claim
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    A coalition part deux could be pretty catastrophic for both parties. Almost certainly more noisy than the first one.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,982
    kle4 said:

    I'm probably alone in not minding if the LDs stay in government next time, whoever it be with (not that I think it likely), except in the sense that they could conceivably do it eternally switching back and forth - I don't like governments to be able to relax in the comfort of a massive majority, and coalitions of two (as opposed to some of these foreign coalitions with multiple parties), especially where each party has its own internal divisions which can be quite fractious, keeps them on their toes.

    Cameron hasn't had it easy, which is a good thing and means the PM has to work hard to get things done (rather than Blair, who though I'm sure worked hard to keep his people in line, had such a commanding lead he could afford to ignore them more), although he hasn't been as adept at managing the coalition politics (most particularly his own side of it) to achieve things as I would have liked, but I think it's not a bad model for government, in theory.

    I agree with quite a lot of what you say here, especially that it's not a bad model for government, in theory.

    My reservation is that, although I have an emotional bias against Conservatives, I also have an intellectual difficulty with the simultaneous propositions that "coalition government is a good thing" plus "but not coalitions with one of the two major parties".

    IMHO, when a coalition government became a fact, LIbDems who demonstrated that they actually held this dual belief have done a lot to undermine their cause.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    AnneJGP said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm probably alone in not minding if the LDs stay in government next time, whoever it be with (not that I think it likely), except in the sense that they could conceivably do it eternally switching back and forth - I don't like governments to be able to relax in the comfort of a massive majority, and coalitions of two (as opposed to some of these foreign coalitions with multiple parties), especially where each party has its own internal divisions which can be quite fractious, keeps them on their toes.

    Cameron hasn't had it easy, which is a good thing and means the PM has to work hard to get things done (rather than Blair, who though I'm sure worked hard to keep his people in line, had such a commanding lead he could afford to ignore them more), although he hasn't been as adept at managing the coalition politics (most particularly his own side of it) to achieve things as I would have liked, but I think it's not a bad model for government, in theory.

    I agree with quite a lot of what you say here, especially that it's not a bad model for government, in theory.

    My reservation is that, although I have an emotional bias against Conservatives, I also have an intellectual difficulty with the simultaneous propositions that "coalition government is a good thing" plus "but not coalitions with one of the two major parties".

    IMHO, when a coalition government became a fact, LIbDems who demonstrated that they actually held this dual belief have done a lot to undermine their cause.
    I'd agree with that. It'd be ok to hold that dual belief if you presented yourself as, essentially, the junior party of the left or right (one reason I think UKIP doing well might be useful, to provide a more palatable coalition partner for the right), but the LDs like to claim they are centre and not merely a Labour-lite option, but the visceral reaction of so many, jumping ship long before any negatives emerged, showed many could never contemplate actually working with whoever was in power if in the national interest.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Considering the L&N model is currently 'predicting' a 99% chance that the Tories win the PV, and a 60% chance they wind up largest party in a hung-parliament, it looks like a stand-out bet...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Jonathan said:

    A coalition part deux could be pretty catastrophic for both parties. Almost certainly more noisy than the first one.

    It would be even more catastrophic for Ed M
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    fitalass said:

    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels

    The NHS isn't safe in the hands of these SNP bunglers. How much more damage can Salmond and his troop of clowns do ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    MarkSenior If Labour is the largest party in 2015 and forms a coalition with the LDs then the Tories will dump Cameron for a rightwinger. There would then be an outside chance of a UKIP/Tory pact or even merger by 2020!
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,982
    fitalass said:

    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels

    Margaret Watt, chair of the Scotland Patients Association, said: “There is a lot of misdiagnosis out there and the patients seem to know more than their doctors because they are using the internet.”

    It does seem to me that nowadays, when patients first present themselves with a 'new' issue, the first person they see ought to be someone with medically orientated Googling skills. Then pass them on to GPs with a list of possibilities.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    MarkSenior If Labour is the largest party in 2015 and forms a coalition with the LDs then the Tories will dump Cameron for a rightwinger. There would then be an outside chance of a UKIP/Tory pact or even merger by 2020!

    Who would that be? What 'right wing' figures exist in the parliamentary Conservative Party?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    david_kendrick1 said:

    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com

    Congratulations Mr Kendrick. Best of luck for 2015. :-)

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,044
    david_kendrick1 said:

    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com

    Congratulations!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,044
    tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    Nick Clegg to claim Lib Dems stopped Tories from pressing ahead with Beecroft "hire and fire" plans #ldconf

    We're going to have a long list of what the LD's stopped the Toxic Party doing I suspect.

    When have the Lib Dems stopped Labour doing anything?
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    david_kendrick1 said:

    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com

    Congratulations David. Doesn't seem the most fertile ground for UKIP though. I think if you could take some of the Con share and get 5-10% you would be doing well.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,566
    I despair at the direction of the NHS in Scotland these days.
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    fitalass said:

    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels

    The NHS isn't safe in the hands of these SNP bunglers. How much more damage can Salmond and his troop of clowns do ?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    fitalass said:

    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels

    The NHS isn't safe in the hands of these SNP bunglers. How much more damage can Salmond and his troop of clowns do ?

    Scotland
    a total of 1,237 complaints 
received across all areas of health in 2012-13.

    Proportionally much less than:

    England & Wales
    a total of 162,019 complaints 
received across all areas of health in 2012-13.

    How much more damage can Hunt and his troop of coalition clowns do ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited September 2013
    AnotherDave - Boris, who is pro grammar school, sceptical of climate change and the EU and a tax cutter for one. David Davis and Liam Fox would also be contendors if Cameron lost, dragging down Osborne and Gove with him and Hague has no appetite for another go. Hammond could also be a contendor from the Tory right, and he opposed gay marriage. May will try and present herself as a Merkel-like safe pair of hands but has no support.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    Russell Whiting has been selected as Labour candidate for Suffolk Coastal. Here he is speaking at the 2010 Labour conference.

    Interestingly, he was a member of Broxtowe CLP at that time, and had previously been a Conservative Party member and a member of Conservatives for Nick Palmer:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yhtn2F6RPOw&amp
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    edited September 2013
    david_kendrick1 said:

    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com

    David: I've added your name to the candidates spreadsheet:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Good evening, everyone.

    Congratulations, Mr. Kendrick.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    @tim - It is joyous indeed to see you droning on and on about the wickedness of what (allegedly) will happen under a re-elected Tory led government (though George will be Foreign Secretary by then). Get your attack in early. Good man.

    You've palpably given up on May 2015 then. Very astute. It will ease the pain.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,221
    Greetings from sunny Glasgow.
    Three comments:

    1. What a dreadfull place is the SECC! Even in sunshine.
    2. Farron received a standing ovation from packed audience. Apart from the obvious the message was we need a new Beveridgean consensus to replace that destroyed by Thatcher and Blair. Also that climate change could lead to the return of his 5 evils.
    3. At a fringe meeting on Trident there was straw poll on the options: replace 0 votes; contingency posture 15 votes; abolition 85 votes. Could be an interesting vote on Tuesday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Good evening, Mr. Slade.

    Why do we need a consensus? Isn't the prime purpose of democracy to give people alternatives?

    On Trident: I thought this has been delayed until after the election?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    TimMontgomerie retweeted
    @StewartWood: Warnings to Osborne about our housing bubble have now come from the IMF, Vince Cable, Mervyn King, Fitch, RICS & most economics commentators

    Plus Tory economic advisors and the Adam Smith Institute
    Across the spectrum it's becoming clearer and clearer that Osborne is the biggest current danger to the Uk economy

    Well, let's see each warning in turn, tim. I think you will find they are either warnings about the stimulus if it becomes permanent, or, non evidence based political argument.

    But I keep an open mind. Post the arguments and the figures and I will comment.

    In the meantime please would you point out to me where the bubble exists in the following figures for total mortgage lending over the past six years?

    It doesn't look very bubble-like to me, tim, but I may have missed something. 
    BoE: MLAR Report September 2013      
    Total Mortgage Lending to Individuals

          Total      Change              
          Lending      %                 
          £ million                      
    -----------------------              
    2007  4,470,195                      
    2008  4,763,555  6.56%               
    2009  4,810,015  0.98%               
    2010  4,841,514  0.65%               
    2011  4,863,178  0.45%               
    2012  4,900,937  0.78%               
    2013  4,915,294* 0.29%               

    * Six months figures annualised.

  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    tim said:

    TimMontgomerie retweeted
    @StewartWood: Warnings to Osborne about our housing bubble have now come from the IMF, Vince Cable, Mervyn King, Fitch, RICS & most economics commentators

    Plus Tory economic advisors and the Adam Smith Institute
    Across the spectrum it's becoming clearer and clearer that Osborne is the biggest current danger to the Uk economy



    Ha ha ha - clearly all would be well if the British people put their trust in the 2 Ed's who built so many houses in their time whilst maintaining Labour's legendary commitment to sound finances - oh wait....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Kendrick, Babur was reduced to one fortress and a hundred men at one point, but went on to become the first great Moghal emperor.

    Or, to get Biblical on you, from tiny seeds does the mighty mustard tree grow.

    Anyway, I wish you luck. I just hope that come the General Election UKIP doesn't end up allowing a Lib-Lab coalition in.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....

    Thats great news David, good luck for the campaign and the future. Hope to see you next friday at UKIP conference.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    rryr
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    Nick Clegg to claim Lib Dems stopped Tories from pressing ahead with Beecroft "hire and
    fire" plans #ldconf

    We're going to have a long list of what the LD's stopped the Toxic Party doing I suspect.

    When have the Lib Dems stopped Labour doing anything?
    Stopped a Labour government 2010-15.

    .............................................................

    Warm congratulations to David Kendrick on his Ukip Cambridge PPC selection. A mighty big ask to carry the kipper banner to the HoC !!

  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Thanks for the tip Mike - I've had a small and rare political bet on the 9-1 outcome. I think Labour won't make the cut and a Con/LD coalition - albeit with a smaller majority - will be the most realistic post-election option.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    slade said:

    Greetings from sunny Glasgow.
    Three comments:

    1. What a dreadfull place is the SECC! Even in sunshine.
    2. Farron received a standing ovation from packed audience. Apart from the obvious the message was we need a new Beveridgean consensus to replace that destroyed by Thatcher and Blair. Also that climate change could lead to the return of his 5 evils.
    3. At a fringe meeting on Trident there was straw poll on the options: replace 0 votes; contingency posture 15 votes; abolition 85 votes. Could be an interesting vote on Tuesday.

    re: point 2. Yes can I see that. If the weather becomes sunnier it might lead to Idleness ;-)

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Charles said:

    slade said:

    Greetings from sunny Glasgow.
    Three comments:

    1. What a dreadfull place is the SECC! Even in sunshine.
    2. Farron received a standing ovation from packed audience. Apart from the obvious the message was we need a new Beveridgean consensus to replace that destroyed by Thatcher and Blair. Also that climate change could lead to the return of his 5 evils.
    3. At a fringe meeting on Trident there was straw poll on the options: replace 0 votes; contingency posture 15 votes; abolition 85 votes. Could be an interesting vote on Tuesday.

    re: point 2. Yes can I see that. If the weather becomes sunnier it might lead to Idleness ;-)

    LOL.. =)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    TimMontgomerie retweeted
    @StewartWood: Warnings to Osborne about our housing bubble have now come from the IMF, Vince Cable, Mervyn King, Fitch, RICS & most economics commentators

    Plus Tory economic advisors and the Adam Smith Institute
    Across the spectrum it's becoming clearer and clearer that Osborne is the biggest current danger to the Uk economy

    Well, let's see each warning in turn, tim. I think you will find they are either warnings about the stimulus if it becomes permanent, or, non evidence based political argument.

    But I keep an open mind. Post the arguments and the figures and I will comment.

    In the meantime please would you point out to me where the bubble exists in the following figures for total mortgage lending over the past six years?

    It doesn't look very bubble-like to me, tim, but I may have missed something.

    tim

    You missed a trick.

    I copied the wrong line from Excel. The figures are outstanding net loans which should have been divided by 4 after summing the quarters to get the average loans outstanding for each year. The percentage increases which would be the pointer to a 'bubble', if it existed, don't of course change.

    Here is the corrected table: 
    BoE: MLAR Report September 2013      
    Total Mortgage Lending to Individuals

          Total      Change              
          Lending      %                 
          £ million                      
    -----------------------              
    2007  1,117,549                      
    2008  1,190,889  6.56%               
    2009  1,202,504  0.98%               
    2010  1,210,379  0.65%               
    2011  1,215,794  0.45%               
    2012  1,225,234  0.78%               
    2013  1,228,824* 0.29%               

    * Six months figures.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2013
    HYUFD said:

    AnotherDave - Boris, who is pro grammar school, sceptical of climate change and the EU and a tax cutter for one. David Davis and Liam Fox would also be contendors if Cameron lost, dragging down Osborne and Gove with him and Hague has no appetite for another go. Hammond could also be a contendor from the Tory right, and he opposed gay marriage. May will try and present herself as a Merkel-like safe pair of hands but has no support.

    I don't think Boris' politics are any different to Mr Cameron's.

    Hammond, May, and Fox all voted against an EU referendum in 2011.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html

    And Mr Hague seems to have morphed into a pro-EU figure.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2374418/William-Hagues-review-branded-Whitehall-whitewash.html


  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    AnneJGP said:

    fitalass said:

    The Scotsman - Scottish NHS complaints reach record levels

    Margaret Watt, chair of the Scotland Patients Association, said: “There is a lot of misdiagnosis out there and the patients seem to know more than their doctors because they are using the internet.”
    It does seem to me that nowadays, when patients first present themselves with a 'new' issue, the first person they see ought to be someone with medically orientated Googling skills. Then pass them on to GPs with a list of possibilities.
    In 10 years time, will GPs exist in a similar way that they now operate?

    Expert systems could do much of their current role once the access to most tests is available to the patient. Smart GPs could double or treble their volumes by setting up the facilities in their surgeries - including evenings and weekends!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    david_kendrick1 said:

    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....

    Congrats David - so it is just you and Nick Palmer as PPCs active on PB?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    @david_kendrick1

    Congratulations.
    david_kendrick1 said:

    I am pleased to announce that I have been selected as the UKIP PPC for Cambridge City for GE 2015 at a hustings this afternoon.

    If anybody is interested in the Cambridge constituency, my email address is d.kendrick@btconnect.com

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Andy_JS said:

    Russell Whiting has been selected as Labour candidate for Suffolk Coastal. Here he is speaking at the 2010 Labour conference.

    Interestingly, he was a member of Broxtowe CLP at that time, and had previously been a Conservative Party member and a member of Conservatives for Nick Palmer:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yhtn2F6RPOw&amp

    Yes, Russell initially supported me personally despite his politics. He decided after the election that he had more in common with us than the Tories and came over - I was really pleased he got the selection, and that the party was open-minded enough not to hold his past allegiance against him. His family in the Suffolk area where he's standing goes back hundreds of years: it's not exactly a Labour target seat, but I predict he'll do well.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,064
    OT. A nice article in the Guardian by Russel Brandt where he talks about his spat with Hugo Boss after making a jibe about their previous Nazi associations. "Subsequent to my jokes the evening took a peculiar turn....."

    "Foreign secretary William Hague gave an award to former Telegraph editor Charles Moore, for writing a hagiography of Margaret Thatcher, who used his acceptance speech to build a precarious connection between my comments about the sponsors, my foolish answerphone scandal at the BBC and the Sachs family's flight, 70 years earlier, from Nazi-occupied Europe. It was a confusing tapestry that Moore spun but he seemed to be saying that a) the calls were as bad as the Holocaust and b) the Sachs family may not've sought refuge in Britain had they known what awaited them. Even for a man whose former job was editing the Telegraph this is an extraordinary way to manipulate information........."


    http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2013/sep/13/russell-brand-gq-awards-hugo-boss

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    The new Tory candidate for Torbay, Kevin Foster, is currently active on UKPR.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    edited September 2013
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....

    Congrats David - so it is just you and Nick Palmer as PPCs active on PB?
    There might be a few more not using their real names of course. (Hopefully saying that doesn't break the rules of PB).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    UKIP polled 3.7% in Cambridge constituency in the local elections: 933 votes out of 25,464. The party contested 5 divisions, polling 8.7% in those divisions.

    The seat consists of all of the Cambridge divisions except Queen Edith's:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGR3MnV4ay1OSG5SemoxaVNab185SFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    9-1 is a stonking price. £15 on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS
    Nick Clegg to claim Lib Dems stopped Tories from pressing ahead with Beecroft "hire and fire" plans #ldconf

    We're going to have a long list of what the LD's stopped the Toxic Party doing I suspect.

    When have the Lib Dems stopped Labour doing anything?
    They helped kick Labour out, thats good enough for me
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    No doubt the Lib Dems will spend this conference pointing out all the differences between themselves and the Conservatives. On Europe, on the environment, on employment legislation, on immigration, on wealth taxes, on crime, on constitutional reform, on voting reform, on childcare, on trident etc. Given Clegg presumably wants to keep equidistant between Labour and the Tories, there must be a similar number of differences with Labour.

    What are they?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    When are we going to get a super, duper ARSE marginals poll for The Sunil On Sunday?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    Avery - what do you put the increasing house prices down to.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    GIN1138 said:

    When are we going to get a super, duper ARSE marginals poll for The Sunil On Sunday?

    But that would mean paying royalties to Jack W! The Sunil on Sunday's preferred pollsters are:

    ComGov
    YouRes
    Angus-BMRB
    TNS-Reid
    Ipsos-HARI
    Morris
    Popinium
    Opulus
    IPIX
    BCM
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jeremy Clarkson tweeting that he may stand in Doncaster North at the GE. ..
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    FrankBooth said:

    Avery - what do you put the increasing house prices down to.


    London.


    "• Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 1.0% in the 12 months to June 2013"

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_322716.pdf
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    MikeK said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....

    Thats great news David, good luck for the campaign and the future. Hope to see you next friday at UKIP conference.
    I'll be at the UKIP conference next Friday. Many from PB there?

    Apparently, I have to bring my UKIP party membership card. I had no idea I was supposed to keep it.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2013
    FrankBooth said:

    "Given Clegg presumably wants to keep equidistant between Labour and the Tories, there must be a similar number of differences with Labour.

    What are they?

    Hard to remain equidistant from Labour until we know what Labour's policy are "On Europe, on the environment, on employment legislation, on immigration, on wealth taxes, on crime, on constitutional reform, on voting reform, on childcare, on trident etc."

    Perhaps we'll find out during Labour's trip to the seaside.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    Why do you think that across the political and economic spectrum all commentators have latched onto the recklessness of Help To Buy so quickly?

    Because they have ignored the details

    *If* it is limited in size and duration, as proposed, it will probably be fine.

    If it become permanent or much larger that will most definitely not be a good thing
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    SimonStClare said:

    FrankBooth said:

    "Given Clegg presumably wants to keep equidistant between Labour and the Tories, there must be a similar number of differences with Labour.

    What are they?

    Hard to remain equidistant from Labour until we know what Labour's policy are "On Europe, on the environment, on employment legislation, on immigration, on wealth taxes, on crime, on constitutional reform, on voting reform, on childcare, on trident etc."

    Perhaps we'll find out during Labour's trip to the seaside.
    True, but given the scale of the differences between the Tories and Lib Dems, if Labour can't make themselves more appealing to the Lib Dems than the blues, they really don't deserve to be in government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    edited September 2013
    I can't find the post-GE2015 government page on William Hill: ???

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/t/3622/UK-Politics.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,044
    TGOHF said:

    Jeremy Clarkson tweeting that he may stand in Doncaster North at the GE. ..

    Presumably as an independent? If so, he'd lose. However unlike the current incumbent, at least he has a very strong connection with the town.

    Besides, he is making too much money from the Beeb for him to risk an attempt. Remember the trouble the BBC had with Lord Sugar before the 2010 GE? Would the BBC be allowed to show Top Gear during the run-up?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited September 2013
    AndyJS I was a university contemporary of Kevin Foster's and indeed helped him with some council campaigns in Coventry, given the LDs poll rating he should have an excellent chance of once again turning traditionally 'Torybay' blue once again
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'We're going to have a long list of what the LD's stopped the Toxic Party doing I suspect.'

    Kept Labour away from government is sufficient.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'Why do you think that across the political and economic spectrum all commentators have latched onto the recklessness of Help To Buy so quickly?'

    At least we can all agree that Labour would be pursuing an identical policy
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    FrankBooth said:

    SimonStClare said:

    FrankBooth said:

    "Given Clegg presumably wants to keep equidistant between Labour and the Tories, there must be a similar number of differences with Labour.

    What are they?

    Hard to remain equidistant from Labour until we know what Labour's policy are "On Europe, on the environment, on employment legislation, on immigration, on wealth taxes, on crime, on constitutional reform, on voting reform, on childcare, on trident etc."

    Perhaps we'll find out during Labour's trip to the seaside.
    "if Labour can't make themselves more appealing to the Lib Dems than the blues, they really don't deserve to be in government.
    On that we are both in agreement. :-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    edited September 2013
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS I was a university contemporary of Kevin Foster's and indeed helped him with some council campaigns in Coventry, given the LDs poll rating he should have an excellent chance of once again turning traditionally 'Torybay' blue once again

    Unfortunately for the Tories Adrian Sanders is standing again for the LDs. If he'd retired I think the Conservatives would have been favourites.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS I was a university contemporary of Kevin Foster's and indeed helped him with some council campaigns in Coventry, given the LDs poll rating he should have an excellent chance of once again turning traditionally 'Torybay' blue once again

    I too am a friend of his. He is very good at that traditional Lib Dem strength - The Ground game. The seat will be very close in 2015 I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    Official Conservative page on Kevin Foster's selection:

    http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2013/02/Kevin_Foster_selected_as_Conservative_candidate_for_Torbay.aspx
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS I was a university contemporary of Kevin Foster's and indeed helped him with some council campaigns in Coventry, given the LDs poll rating he should have an excellent chance of once again turning traditionally 'Torybay' blue once again

    Unfortunately for the Tories Adrian Sanders is standing again for the LDs. If he'd retired I think the Conservatives would have been favourites.
    I think it'll be very close on the night.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,455
    edited September 2013
    Can anyone point me to the William Hill page with the value bet on a Con/LD coalition? Can't find it for some reason. Thanks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited September 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone point me to the William Hill page with the value bet on a Con/LD coalition? Can't find it for some reason. Thanks.

    It is here

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/1744492/Next-Government.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Congrats to Mr Kendrick on his selection.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited September 2013
    Pulpstar/AndyJS - True, but Kevin is also Devon born and bred and campaigning hard and in 2015 the anti LD swing is likely to be so high even popular incumbents like Sanders will have difficulty stopping it. Sanders had a majority of 8.3% in 2010, according to today's UK polling report even on present polling there is a swing of 4% from LD to Tory since 2010, making it too close to call. If Foster squeezes the UKIP vote he should have a strong chance
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m

    Just out BBC/ComRes survey of 580 LD councillors on Clegg's successor

    Cable 38%
    Farron 27%
    Alexander 10%
    Swinson 7%
    Davey 6%
    Webb 5%
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Kendrick, Babur was reduced to one fortress and a hundred men at one point, but went on to become the first great Moghal emperor.

    Or, to get Biblical on you, from tiny seeds does the mighty mustard tree grow.

    Anyway, I wish you luck. I just hope that come the General Election UKIP doesn't end up allowing a Lib-Lab coalition in.

    You can't be too concerned about that prospect Morris or you wouldn't be intending to vote UKIP yourself. It's likely to depend on whether UKIP wins 5% or 10% of the vote which will determine the outcome of the next GE. Anything close to or above the latter figure and the Tories will be dead in the water, no question.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone point me to the William Hill page with the value bet on a Con/LD coalition? Can't find it for some reason. Thanks.

    This gets me there. Politics -> Next Government:

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/1744492/Next-Government.html

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    TimMontgomerie retweeted
    @StewartWood: Warnings to Osborne about our housing bubble have now come from the IMF, Vince Cable, Mervyn King, Fitch, RICS & most economics commentators

    Plus Tory economic advisors and the Adam Smith Institute
    Across the spectrum it's becoming clearer and clearer that Osborne is the biggest current danger to the Uk economy

    Well, let's see each warning in turn, tim. I think you will find they are either warnings about the stimulus if it becomes permanent, or, non evidence based political argument.

    But I keep an open mind. Post the arguments and the figures and I will comment.

    In the meantime please would you point out to me where the bubble exists in the following figures for total mortgage lending over the past six years?

    It doesn't look very bubble-like to me, tim, but I may have missed something.

    tim

    You missed a trick.

    I copied the wrong line from Excel. The figures are outstanding net loans which should have been divided by 4 after summing the quarters to get the average loans outstanding for each year. The percentage increases which would be the pointer to a 'bubble', if it existed, don't of course change.

    Here is the corrected table: 
    BoE: MLAR Report September 2013      
    Total Mortgage Lending to Individuals

          Total      Change              
          Lending      %                 
          £ million                      
    -----------------------              
    2007  1,117,549                      
    2008  1,190,889  6.56%               
    2009  1,202,504  0.98%               
    2010  1,210,379  0.65%               
    2011  1,215,794  0.45%               
    2012  1,225,234  0.78%               
    2013  1,228,824* 0.29%               

    * Six months figures.
    Would you be so kind as to add the data for the period from 2000 onwards please Avery.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited September 2013
    Tim It all depends if the leadership change is pre 2015 LD massacre or post 2015 LD massacre. If before and the LDs try and do a Rudd and save the furniture it will be Cable, if after it will be Farron, either way there is no way in my view Clegg will be party leader after the election, if he holds his seat at all! Alexander may be an outside bet though if Cameron leads the largest party in a hung parliament and the LDs stick with their policy of supporting the party with most seats
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    @TSE Young cardinals vote for old popes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    david_kendrick1 said:

    MikeK said:

    david_kendrick1 said:

    Thanks for the congrats and good wishes.

    It'll be tough. The UKIP branch in Cambridge could be described as 'lightweight', without causing offence. We need 24 candidates for the local elections which are taking place next year, on the same date as the Euro elections. We ought to have candiadtes standing in all 24. Not yet, we haven't....

    Thats great news David, good luck for the campaign and the future. Hope to see you next friday at UKIP conference.
    I'll be at the UKIP conference next Friday. Many from PB there?

    Apparently, I have to bring my UKIP party membership card. I had no idea I was supposed to keep it.

    Congratulations, David. I'll be running the BUAV (animal protection NGO) stand there on Saturday (a colleague is doing it on Friday) - do come over and say hello. MikeK said earlier that he'll be there, but only on Friday.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    peter_from_putney said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Kendrick, Babur was reduced to one fortress and a hundred men at one point, but went on to become the first great Moghal emperor.

    Or, to get Biblical on you, from tiny seeds does the mighty mustard tree grow.

    Anyway, I wish you luck. I just hope that come the General Election UKIP doesn't end up allowing a Lib-Lab coalition in.

    You can't be too concerned about that prospect Morris or you wouldn't be intending to vote UKIP yourself. It's likely to depend on whether UKIP wins 5% or 10% of the vote which will determine the outcome of the next GE. Anything close to or above the latter figure and the Tories will be dead in the water, no question.
    Voters on the politcal centre-right have no obligation to vote Conservative despite what the Conservative party seems to assume.

    Rather the Conservative party has an obligation to earn the support of those voters.

    If it is unable to do so through having the wrong people or the wrong policies then it has nobody to blame but itself.

    And not the voters or the parties they do vote for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    For those of us who have dealt with with both the Circus/Serco, we're shocked at this

    Detainees at Yarl's Wood immigration centre 'facing sexual abuse'

    Ex-inmate alleges that guards 'preyed on isolated women' at institution run by Serco, and claims cover-up

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/sep/14/detainees-yarls-wood-sexual-abuse
This discussion has been closed.

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