politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ part
Comments
-
@RichardNabavi In CON-LD marginals there will be a big anti-CON vote and the LDs will hold the vast majority of seats where the current MP is standing again
The LDs could also take seats from the Tories. I've got a fair amount of money on Watford with bets at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1. Oxford West & Abingdon also looks a very good prospect.0 -
In Eastleigh, I'm expecting to see Conservative supporters voting UKIP tactically in 2015.tim said:
Maybe they believed Clegg on tuition fees, or wanted more localism in education as opposed to Goves centralism, or an amnesty for illegal immigrants.RichardNabavi said:
Yes, but as we've discussed before it depends where they are. If they are in Con/LD marginals, that helps the Tories, not Labour. If they're in safe Labour or Tory seats, it doesn't matter what they do. So everything depends on whether people who voted LibDem in Con/Lab marginals include a lot of those Labour identifiers who are to the left of Labour and are motivated primarily by a hatred of the Tories, who will go back to Labour this time.tim said:
That's why Mike always makes the point that those people,about 6% of the electorate, are now solid Labour and showing no signs of budging.
Now, maybe this is the case (Nick P claims to know lots of such voters in Broxtowe), but if so it's hard to see why they voted LibDem in 2010, thus gifting those marginal seats to the Tories. What were they thinking?
What I can tell you is that while polls show most people dislike Tories, they really dislike Tories.
As for tactical voting, ironic coming from a Tory supporter, Tories are notoriously dim when it comes to tactical voting, hence the fact that they whine about the unfairness of the electoral system decade after decade.
0 -
"Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats."
Outrageous suggestion!
How could someone as popular with the public as calamity Clegg possibly cost the lib dems votes?
The lib dems getting pasted in local elections and hemorrhaging members and grassroots activists year on year is but a mere trifle. That will obviously be turned around as soon as the public sees Clegg in action during the election campaign making very believable promises that nobody will be laughing at, nor will Clegg still be a toxic liability after a few more radio phone ins.
Probably.
0 -
Most of all, I feel massively disappointed. Didn't vote for them in 2010 but felt very hopeful about the coalition. Liked Nick Clegg a great deal and thought the parties involvement would lead to more thoughtful, evidence-based policy and less knee-jerk bullsh1t. Cable has been a particular let-down.stodge said:
You really don't like the Liberal Democrats, do you ?Anorak said:One thing that would make a Labour government more bearable would be the annihilation of the yellows at the ballot box.
Their part in the coalition has been a petulant and treacherous one, and (for once) this behaviour has been seen by all. No more hiding behind "we would be different in government", no more radically different messages for different constituencies, and no more credibility as the "third way".
I look forward to the day they sit among the DUP and Plaid Cymru as equals.
But to return to your point: No, not a lot. Perhaps, though, I should channel my energy more usefully than flinging vitriol at the yellow peril
0 -
No, what they are is relevant - because that will help inform how they behave in May 2015. "Lib Dems who have seen the Labour light" may be more motivated to go out and vote Labour than Pissed off Labour voters who had an unhappy experience at the ballot box last time. In any case, where they are is also very relevant. What makes you think these Labourpeople voted in a way last time that enabled Tories to get elected? As "further to the left than average" Labour voters, that really is "cutting off your nose to spite your face"!
At least we can lay this "Lib Dem to Labour switchers" to rest - they weren't Lib Dems in the first place, but Labour.MikeSmithson said:What they are is irrelevant. It is what they will do on May 7 2015 that's of real interest.
CarlottaVance said:
The point is, they were Labour in the first place who leant their vote to the LibDems and now have acute buyer's remorse. Vote Lib Dem, get Tory government.tim said:
That's why Mike always makes the point that those people,about 6% of the electorate, are now solid Labour and showing no signs of budging.CarlottaVance said:
Fascinating! Thanks!anotherDave said:Re: 2010 LD voters
I've just come across an August 2012 Peter Kellner article looking at the LDs.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/
The 2010 LD > Labour switchers appear to be far left Labour supporters.
So this whole "2010 Lib Dem switchers to Labour" is horse feathers - they were Labour in the first place!
"In 2010, the Lib Dems secured the votes of 1.6 million Labour identifiers and 1.8 million people with no party ID. The Labour-ID group was more left-wing than Labour voters generally. They comprised a mixture of people who were disillusioned with Labour over such matters as Iraq and student fees, and tactical voters – passionate anti-Tories who feared that Labour couldn’t win locally. The vast majority of these voters have now returned to Labour. Today, just 200,000 Labour identifiers would vote Lib Dem."
They're not Lib Dems who've "seen the light".
Tho if there were this many of them, one wonders how many Lab supporters in 2010 really did sit on their hands at home.....but instead went out and voted Lib Dem.....0 -
SouthamObserver said:
There is only one UK political party that can realistically hope to win 30% plus of the vote in England, Scotland and Wales in 2015.
-----------------
Replace 30% with 20% and the statement is still true.
That is why it is called the One Nation Party !
0 -
After 6 months of the two Eds in Downing Street I expect the Lib Dems to start making a miraculous recovery.0
-
Seems to have been an epic fail of tactical voting on the left, doesn't it?tim said:As for tactical voting, ironic coming from a Tory supporter, Tories are notoriously dim when it comes to tactical voting, hence the fact that they whine about the unfairness of the electoral system decade after decade.
Here's an alternative hypothesis:
- Labour identifiers temporarily disgruntled with Labour (Gordon Brown, authoritarianism, Iraq etc) voted LibDem in large numbers in safe Labour and Tory seats where it was safe to do so without helping the Tories;
- The same type of voters voted LibDem in Con/LD marginals, along with tactical voters not fed up with Labour
- Those who voted LibDem in Con/Lab marginals were a different type of voter, perhaps more centrist, unconvinced by the Tories, wanting 'austerity-lite', wanting the 'new politics'.
Now, I've no idea whether this hypothesis is correct or not, but in terms of individual voter motivation it makes more sense than the hypothesis that voters to the left of Labour helped the Tories in Con/Lab seats.
Of course it may simply be that voters aren't always rational.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft will give us the answer at the weekend.
0 -
Mike not facing the same way as Jack's ARSE..MikeSmithson said:What they are is irrelevant. It is what they will do on May 7 2015 that's of real interest. My reading is that they put the CON dream of an overall majority almost completely out of sight and, depending on UKIP waverers, could ensure hat LAB at the very minimum come out wth most seats.
CarlottaVance said:
The point is, they were Labour in the first place who leant their vote to the LibDems and now have acute buyer's remorse. Vote Lib Dem, get Tory government.tim said:
That's why Mike always makes the point that those people,about 6% of the electorate, are now solid Labour and showing no signs of budging.CarlottaVance said:
Fascinating! Thanks!anotherDave said:Re: 2010 LD voters
I've just come across an August 2012 Peter Kellner article looking at the LDs.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/
The 2010 LD > Labour switchers appear to be far left Labour supporters.
So this whole "2010 Lib Dem switchers to Labour" is horse feathers - they were Labour in the first place!
"In 2010, the Lib Dems secured the votes of 1.6 million Labour identifiers and 1.8 million people with no party ID. The Labour-ID group was more left-wing than Labour voters generally. They comprised a mixture of people who were disillusioned with Labour over such matters as Iraq and student fees, and tactical voters – passionate anti-Tories who feared that Labour couldn’t win locally. The vast majority of these voters have now returned to Labour. Today, just 200,000 Labour identifiers would vote Lib Dem."
They're not Lib Dems who've "seen the light".
Tho if there were this many of them, one wonders how many Lab supporters in 2010 really did sit on their hands at home.....but instead went out and voted Lib Dem.....
0 -
The One Nation Party that doesn't even want EdM as its leader...0
-
Depends on the date of polling - could be 6 months old before Ed's meltdown peaked.RichardNabavi said:
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft will give us the answer at the weekend.tim said:As for tactical voting, ironic coming from a Tory supporter, Tories are notoriously dim when it comes to tactical voting, hence the fact that they whine about the unfairness of the electoral system decade after decade.
0 -
I don't know. I assume she is.tim said:
Is Diane James standing there again?anotherDave said:
In Eastleigh, I'm expecting to see Conservative supporters voting UKIP tactically in 2015.tim said:
Maybe they believed Clegg on tuition fees, or wanted more localism in education as opposed to Goves centralism, or an amnesty for illegal immigrants.RichardNabavi said:
Yes, but as we've discussed before it depends where they are. If they are in Con/LD marginals, that helps the Tories, not Labour. If they're in safe Labour or Tory seats, it doesn't matter what they do. So everything depends on whether people who voted LibDem in Con/Lab marginals include a lot of those Labour identifiers who are to the left of Labour and are motivated primarily by a hatred of the Tories, who will go back to Labour this time.tim said:
That's why Mike always makes the point that those people,about 6% of the electorate, are now solid Labour and showing no signs of budging.
Now, maybe this is the case (Nick P claims to know lots of such voters in Broxtowe), but if so it's hard to see why they voted LibDem in 2010, thus gifting those marginal seats to the Tories. What were they thinking?
What I can tell you is that while polls show most people dislike Tories, they really dislike Tories.
As for tactical voting, ironic coming from a Tory supporter, Tories are notoriously dim when it comes to tactical voting, hence the fact that they whine about the unfairness of the electoral system decade after decade.
0 -
O/T I see Drenge are on Jools Holland's programme next week on BBC2.
Is this the first time Tom Watson has had a positive impact on one of his passions ?
0 -
There is indeed an existential threat to the LibDems - but it comes not from UKIP, but from Labour. The LibDems have a strong message, but the only way they survive as anything like a national force is if they take the fight to Labour.
During the past three years, the Tories have been going with their instincts and doing pretty much what they wanted to do - turn public sector jobs into private sector jobs. Because the nation's finances bequeathed by Labour made it a necessity. During the past three years, the LibDems have been going against their instincts and doing pretty much what they DIDN'T want to do - turn the public sector jobs into private sector jobs. Because the nation's finances bequeathed by Labour made it a necessity.
During the past three years, Labour has been sat with its thumb up its arse.
The LibDems have been the responsible face of the left in Govt. They can say they have been able to rein in the worst excesses of Tory "slash and burn" instincts. A sentiment which should prove attractive on the left. Labour on the other hand has refused to face up to the fact that its business model is broken. If put back in power, it will make the same mistakes ad nauseum. And when Labour makes mistakes, it isn't the rich that suffer. It is the poor whose jobs get lost, whose living standards crash down, who have trouble making ends meet. Forget the squeezed middle - it is the down-trodden poor that Labour shafts time and time again by destroying growth in the economy. The Libdems could point out there is a route to successfully managing the economy - albeit, by the unusual notion of a party of the left going with a much smaller state.
The LibDems HAVE to come out fighting - and Labour has to be their target. That is where their votes have gone. If they make a good case, passionately, of how they have actually turned the economy around - something which Labour singularly could never do - there is no reason why many of their voters should not return. But trying to be equally unpleasant to Labour and the Tories is not a strategy that will deliver them results.0 -
Actually, I tipped the LibDems in Watford a while back and you were distinctly cool on the suggestion! I certainly think Shadsy got the original odds wrong.MikeSmithson said:@RichardNabavi In CON-LD marginals there will be a big anti-CON vote and the LDs will hold the vast majority of seats where the current MP is standing again
The LDs could also take seats from the Tories. I've got a fair amount of money on Watford with bets at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1. Oxford West & Abingdon also looks a very good prospect.0 -
I suspect he's been a great supporter of his local pie shop.TGOHF said:O/T I see Drenge are on Jools Holland's programme next week on BBC2.
Is this the first time Tom Watson has had a positive impact on one of his passions ?
0 -
Populus – good poll for Labour.
Probably an outlier but shows the Labour score yet again above 36, which is all that matters.
I was a 2010 LD voter.0 -
"The LibDems have a strong message, but the only way they survive as anything like a national force is if they take the fight to Labour."MarqueeMark said:There is indeed an existential threat to the LibDems - but it comes not from UKIP, but from Labour. The LibDems have a strong message, but the only way they survive as anything like a national force is if they take the fight to Labour.
During the past three years, the Tories have been going with their instincts and doing pretty much what they wanted to do - turn public sector jobs into private sector jobs. Because the nation's finances bequeathed by Labour made it a necessity. During the past three years, the LibDems have been going against their instincts and doing pretty much what they DIDN'T want to do - turn the public sector jobs into private sector jobs. Because the nation's finances bequeathed by Labour made it a necessity.
During the past three years, Labour has been sat with its thumb up its arse.
The LibDems have been the responsible face of the left in Govt. They can say they have been able to rein in the worst excesses of Tory "slash and burn" instincts. A sentiment which should prove attractive on the left. Labour on the other hand has refused to face up to the fact that its business model is broken. If put back in power, it will make the same mistakes ad nauseum. And when Labour makes mistakes, it isn't the rich that suffer. It is the poor whose jobs get lost, whose living standards crash down, who have trouble making ends meet. Forget the squeezed middle - it is the down-trodden poor that Labour shafts time and time again by destroying growth in the economy. The Libdems could point out there is a route to successfully managing the economy - albeit, by the unusual notion of a party of the left going with a much smaller state.
The LibDems HAVE to come out fighting - and Labour has to be their target. That is where their votes have gone. If they make a good case, passionately, of how they have actually turned the economy around - something which Labour singularly could never do - there is no reason why many of their voters should not return. But trying to be equally unpleasant to Labour and the Tories is not a strategy that will deliver them results.
0 -
Watch out for a key by-election next week in Oxford. That will give a good picture of which way the wind is blowing there.MikeSmithson said:@RichardNabavi In CON-LD marginals there will be a big anti-CON vote and the LDs will hold the vast majority of seats where the current MP is standing again
The LDs could also take seats from the Tories. I've got a fair amount of money on Watford with bets at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1. Oxford West & Abingdon also looks a very good prospect.0 -
Have the LDs selected a 2015 candidate for Portsmouth South yet?0
-
The number I always look at in polls is the combined Conservative-UKIP total. Populus today puts it at 41% which is very low compared to some others which suggest 46-47%.0
-
The Sun also had a batch of YouGov polling about the Liberal Democrats in advance of their conference (I expect there will be more Lib Dem polling to come at the weekend).
The broad picture is still pretty miserable for the party. 42% think that the Liberal Democrats have influence in government (8% a lot, 34% a little), and 40% said they had contributed something positive to the coalition (the most popular choice, on 20%, was more moderate and centrist policies, followed by more interest in the less well off on 15%). However, 44% said that the Lib Dems had not contributed anything positive to government at all. Perhaps most worrying for the party, only 19% said they had an idea what the Liberal Democrats stand for these days, down from 26% a year ago.
Few people thought the Liberal Democrats had delivered on many of their specific aims in government. The one area where Lib Dems are seen as delivering is on tax, 10% think they have gone a long way to reducing the income tax paid by low earner, 38% some way. People rated them much less well on all the other aims YouGov asked about, just 22% think they’ve made at least some progress on protecting the environment, 22% on increasing taxes on the wealthy, 20% on reforming banking, 15% on constitutional reform, 13% on improving civil liberties.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8089#comments0 -
I hear when he was off in Oz, his local curry house had to put out a profits warning..anotherDave said:
I suspect he's been a great supporter of his local pie shop.TGOHF said:O/T I see Drenge are on Jools Holland's programme next week on BBC2.
Is this the first time Tom Watson has had a positive impact on one of his passions ?0 -
I agree with MArquee Mark. The righty market is wrapped up by Dave and Nigel - there's nothong there for the yellow peril. They've lost their votes and prospects to the other lefty party - but an incoherent and irresponsible mess of a party. There is potential for a responsible small state lefty / liberal party.0
-
Well done Richard.
My current Watford betting is based on what I regard as pretty good information that I'll publish here at some stage.RichardNabavi said:
Actually, I tipped the LibDems in Watford a while back and you were distinctly cool on the suggestion! I certainly think Shadsy got the original odds wrong.MikeSmithson said:@RichardNabavi In CON-LD marginals there will be a big anti-CON vote and the LDs will hold the vast majority of seats where the current MP is standing again
The LDs could also take seats from the Tories. I've got a fair amount of money on Watford with bets at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1. Oxford West & Abingdon also looks a very good prospect.0 -
Have the LDs got the discipline for that message ?Patrick said:I agree with MArquee Mark. The righty market is wrapped up by Dave and Nigel - there's nothong there for the yellow peril. They've lost their votes and prospects to the other lefty party - but an incoherent and irresponsible mess of a party. There is potential for a responsible small state lefty / liberal party.
Who are the big beasts to take on Labour ? Put a line through Cable and Farron - they have Stockholm syndrome.
0 -
On the September IPSOS Political Monitor...
Applying the L&N model we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 4.2%
Con seat lead 8 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 61.7%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 96.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 2.6%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.7%
A slight softening in the Tories' prospects, despite the headline VI narrowing. Could just be MOE changes, or a slight dip in Cameron's relative popularity due to Syria.
(And just for tim, no there probably won't be an election in three months time...)0 -
Those seats are lost anyway to the Tories unless they prise votes back from Labour.tim said:@MarqueeMark
A quick look at an electoral map and you could've saved yourself all that time typing.
Go and look at who the Lib Dems are fighting in most of their marginal seats, a clue, they need Labour tactical votes.0 -
Perhaps there is potential for a responsible small state lefty / liberal party, but is there anyone within the present Lib Dem party that resembles such an animal - Let alone someone strong enough to lead it?Patrick said:I agree with MArquee Mark. The righty market is wrapped up by Dave and Nigel - there's nothong there for the yellow peril. They've lost their votes and prospects to the other lefty party - but an incoherent and irresponsible mess of a party. There is potential for a responsible small state lefty / liberal party.
0 -
@RodCrosby
Hi Rod.
I see that Obama is still President - something you told us couldn't happen because of that birth certificate thing.0 -
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
0 -
There is garbage and there is fragrant garbage. The above is the latter.RodCrosby said:On the September IPSOS Political Monitor...
Applying the L&N model we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 4.2%
Con seat lead 8 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 61.7%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 96.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 2.6%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.7%
A slight softening in the Tories' prospects, despite the headline VI narrowing. Could just be MOE changes, or a slight dip in Cameron's relative popularity due to Syria.
(And just for tim, no there probably won't be an election in three months time...)
Many serious political observer will accept the probability of a Tory vote lead though no one will think it has a 98.9% chance. It is equivalent to the Republicans winning Montana !!
However, given the current boundaries, no one will give the Tories a realistic prospect of a 61.7% chance of being the largest party. More like 30-40% , in my opinion.
I do not know what the current odds are.
0 -
Most seats on betfair is around 1.85 Labour 2.24 Consurbiton said:
There is garbage and there is fragrant garbage. The above is the latter.RodCrosby said:On the September IPSOS Political Monitor...
Applying the L&N model we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 4.2%
Con seat lead 8 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 61.7%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 96.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 2.6%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.7%
A slight softening in the Tories' prospects, despite the headline VI narrowing. Could just be MOE changes, or a slight dip in Cameron's relative popularity due to Syria.
(And just for tim, no there probably won't be an election in three months time...)
Many serious political observer will accept the probability of a Tory vote lead though no one will think it has a 98.9% chance. It is equivalent to the Republicans winning Montana !!
However, given the current boundaries, no one will give the Tories a realistic prospect of a 61.7% chance of being the largest party. More like 30-40% , in my opinion.
I do not know what the current odds are.
0 -
ABC News has called the following seats for the Liberals: Petrie, Reid, Capricornia, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Barton. Five seats still in doubt:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dERmb2NsbmpUNmlyOHplOTNOTE9iZVE#gid=0
0 -
"Bob Crow told me at TUC that RMT helps fund Caroline Lucas's office."
twitter.com/andybell5news/status/3785409014646824970 -
Is that 54% Labour and 44% Tory ? I will accept that as being realistic given current available knowledge.TGOHF said:
Most seats on betfair is around 1.85 Labour 2.24 Consurbiton said:
There is garbage and there is fragrant garbage. The above is the latter.RodCrosby said:On the September IPSOS Political Monitor...
Applying the L&N model we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 4.2%
Con seat lead 8 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 61.7%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 96.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 2.6%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.7%
A slight softening in the Tories' prospects, despite the headline VI narrowing. Could just be MOE changes, or a slight dip in Cameron's relative popularity due to Syria.
(And just for tim, no there probably won't be an election in three months time...)
Many serious political observer will accept the probability of a Tory vote lead though no one will think it has a 98.9% chance. It is equivalent to the Republicans winning Montana !!
However, given the current boundaries, no one will give the Tories a realistic prospect of a 61.7% chance of being the largest party. More like 30-40% , in my opinion.
I do not know what the current odds are.0 -
Maybe something to do with Claire Ward's personal vote disappearing while the LDs remain strong on the council?MikeSmithson said:Well done Richard.
My current Watford betting is based on what I regard as pretty good information that I'll publish here at some stage.RichardNabavi said:
Actually, I tipped the LibDems in Watford a while back and you were distinctly cool on the suggestion! I certainly think Shadsy got the original odds wrong.MikeSmithson said:@RichardNabavi In CON-LD marginals there will be a big anti-CON vote and the LDs will hold the vast majority of seats where the current MP is standing again
The LDs could also take seats from the Tories. I've got a fair amount of money on Watford with bets at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1. Oxford West & Abingdon also looks a very good prospect.0 -
Incipient Alzheimer's, I'm afraid...MikeSmithson said:@RodCrosby
Hi Rod.
I see that Obama is still President - something you told us couldn't happen because of that birth certificate thing.
I never followed the birth-certificate goose-chase.
My points were based on Obama's own stipulated facts about his father's nationality at the time of his birth, and the clear Constitutional theory and previous USSC judgments that would render him not a "natural-born citizen" as a result, unless they were overturned.
The USSC has so far not rendered an opinion in Obama's case.
0 -
Exact price right now issurbiton said:
Is that 54% Labour and 44% Tory ? I will accept that as being realistic given current available knowledge.TGOHF said:
Most seats on betfair is around 1.85 Labour 2.24 Consurbiton said:
There is garbage and there is fragrant garbage. The above is the latter.RodCrosby said:On the September IPSOS Political Monitor...
Applying the L&N model we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 4.2%
Con seat lead 8 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 98.9%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 61.7%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 96.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 2.6%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.7%
A slight softening in the Tories' prospects, despite the headline VI narrowing. Could just be MOE changes, or a slight dip in Cameron's relative popularity due to Syria.
(And just for tim, no there probably won't be an election in three months time...)
Many serious political observer will accept the probability of a Tory vote lead though no one will think it has a 98.9% chance. It is equivalent to the Republicans winning Montana !!
However, given the current boundaries, no one will give the Tories a realistic prospect of a 61.7% chance of being the largest party. More like 30-40% , in my opinion.
I do not know what the current odds are.
Lab 1.86 - 1.91
Con 2.14-2.22
So 45-55% is a general indication - ie a lot closer than the polls fed into Baxter's seats predictor.
0 -
ABC News are predicting that Clive Palmer will lose in Fairfax although he's currently ahead by 718 votes:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/fair/0 -
I find it amazing that hardly any Tory voters from 2010 have switched to Labour.0
-
It's bad because in emergency situations the actions taken in the first few minutes can mean the difference between life and death. That's why NHS ambulance crews have to undergo in-depth training - they need to be able to make an immediate diagnosis and, if possible, begin treatment.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.0 -
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
0 -
They have UKIP now. If there is going to be swing back to the Tories, and there will be some surely, that's where it will come from.Andy_JS said:I find it amazing that hardly any Tory voters from 2010 have switched to Labour.
0 -
No they are still saying likely Palmer gain .Andy_JS said:ABC News are predicting that Clive Palmer will lose in Fairfax although he's currently ahead by 718 votes:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/fair/
0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Bit weird. The main page, below this article, indicates there's just 1 comment.0 -
Didn't Ken Clarke make a big point when he was Health Secretary of improving ambulance staff? Something about them being taxi drivers? Are the coalition trying to undo his legacy?0
-
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx0 -
For those interested and with access behind the Times' paywall, I should have an article appearing in tomorrow's edition on Syria's CW.0
-
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!
0 -
I think they should close medical schools and start first-aid courses for doctors.tim said:
Taxi cab drivers can treat head injuries.SMukesh said:
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!
0 -
I see the entrepreneurial spirit has not died out in Liverpool:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-24080915
0 -
I note that, although UKIP came second in the 2009 Euro elections, they are now only in fourth place on number of MEPs, being down to 10 compared to the LibDems on 12 (up one following the defection from the Tories of Edward McMillan-Scott in 2010) and Labour on 13.
Indeed, 31% of all UKIP MEPs elected in 2009 have now left the party (although they've gained one defection from the Tories as well). For that matter, about 10% of all the UK MEPs elected in 2009 have switched party.
Not that I imagine voters will notice this.0 -
If that is your level of understanding of first aid, I'll take my chances, just leave me well alone.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
As for 5 days medical training of ambulance staff, what jobs are they being sent to? The controllers are very experienced and can normally tell what jobs are actually "goers" and which are dross. Think maternity runs, where the mother is 1 hour into a probable multi hour labour, or piss artist won't wake up, etc.
0 -
F1: Ferrari have now signed Dirk De Beer, who is (or was) head of Lotus' aerodynamics department:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24082291
This after taking James Allison, probably the top designer after Adrian Newey, and Kimi Raikkonen. One wonder if Ferrari will be sending Lotus a Christmas card with "All your personnel are belong to us" in it.0 -
I do a five day EMT course every 2 years. If we're first on scene (not often, fortunately) I'm confident in my abilities to do a basic DR ABC intervention, just your initial catastrophic bleed/airway management/CPR process. Anything more than that, and I'd just be going through the motions, looking busy, until the Ambo turns up. A five day course isn't enough for much more.SouthamObserver said:
It's bad because in emergency situations the actions taken in the first few minutes can mean the difference between life and death. That's why NHS ambulance crews have to undergo in-depth training - they need to be able to make an immediate diagnosis and, if possible, begin treatment.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.0 -
That's what the course is designed for. Emergency first aid. That's all that's required of most ambulance trips. Emergency first aid, and a fast ride to a hospital - which is where the doctors are.SMukesh said:
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!
0 -
Isn`t that my point?As long as the jobs are minor or just transporting patients,it`s probably ok.saddened said:
If that is your level of understanding of first aid, I'll take my chances, just leave me well alone.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
As for 5 days medical training of ambulance staff, what jobs are they being sent to? The controllers are very experienced and can normally tell what jobs are actually "goers" and which are dross. Think maternity runs, where the mother is 1 hour into a probable multi hour labour, or piss artist won't wake up, etc.
0 -
Not true, mate. Every firefighter is trained to do oral and nasal airway management, taught on watch every 3 months. That's pretty basic stuff, to be honest. Its the subtle conditions that you can't teach in 5 days, diabetic coma, allergic reaction, heart conditions, that sort of thing.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.0 -
Britain Seen Heading for Fastest GDP Growth Since 2007: Economy
The U.K. economy is heading for its fastest expansion since the onset of the financial crisis, economists said as they upgraded their forecasts for growth through 2015.
Gross domestic product will rise 1.3 percent this year and 2 percent in 2014, compared with predictions of 1 percent and 1.7 percent previously, according to the median of 48 economists in a monthly survey by Bloomberg News. That pace of growth for next year would be the fastest since 2007, before the start of a slump that has left output more than 3 percent below its peak.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/u-k-recovery-seen-pushing-economy-to-fastest-growth-since-2007.html
0 -
If you look on their front page they're predicting the Coalition to win 92 seats.MarkSenior said:
No they are still saying likely Palmer gain .Andy_JS said:ABC News are predicting that Clive Palmer will lose in Fairfax although he's currently ahead by 718 votes:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/fair/
That must mean Fairfax is being predicted to go to the Liberals, despite what it says on the specific constituency page. (I've been through all the other seats and there are no other possibilities):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/
0 -
You have some misconceived ideas.Ambulance staff are well versed in inserting needles,intubation(tubing lungs to enable breathing) and even start treatment after heart attacks in the ambulance.anotherDave said:
That's what the course is designed for. Emergency first aid. That's all that's required of most ambulance trips. Emergency first aid, and a fast ride to a hospital - which is where the doctors are.SMukesh said:
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!0 -
Probably not, given that they have an MEP is as much as most people know, but it's certainly interesting - I had no idea it was so many.bondegezou said:I note that, although UKIP came second in the 2009 Euro elections, they are now only in fourth place on number of MEPs, being down to 10 compared to the LibDems on 12 (up one following the defection from the Tories of Edward McMillan-Scott in 2010) and Labour on 13.
Indeed, 31% of all UKIP MEPs elected in 2009 have now left the party (although they've gained one defection from the Tories as well). For that matter, about 10% of all the UK MEPs elected in 2009 have switched party.
Not that I imagine voters will notice this.0 -
First Aid at work is take an aspirin call an ambulance. I'd be delighted to know that were I having a heart attack or some kind of haemorrhage the ambulance drivers in attendance had a whole two days more training than one of our office managers.anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
0 -
Tnx.My point is not everything ambulance drivers attend are real emergencies.They pick up psychiatric patients for example.You don`t need airway skills for that.TwistedFireStopper said:
Not true, mate. Every firefighter is trained to do oral and nasal airway management, taught on watch every 3 months. That's pretty basic stuff, to be honest. Its the subtle conditions that you can't teach in 5 days, diabetic coma, allergic reaction, heart conditions, that sort of thing.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.0 -
Quite a few positive articles on Clegg floating around some Tory press in the last couple of days, not sure why - I get they probably don't want Clegg gone right now and risk undermining the Coalition, but I should think they desperately want a more leftist leader in place for the GE who can recover some of those 2010 LD-Lab switchers. Whether one agrees that group is criticial or not, it is still at least significant, so not sure why all this sudden talking up of Clegg.0
-
Regarding the fact that hardly any 2010 Tory voters are switching to Labour, it means that Labour might have a tough task wining some of their top targets where there isn't a large LD vote to squeeze.
For example, North Warwickshire, Thurrock and Hendon are Labour's top three targets from the Tories, but in each of those the LD vote is already quite low:
LD vote:
North Warwickshire: 5,481 (11.6%)
Thurrock: 4,901 (10.7%)
Hendon: 5,734 (12.4%)0 -
It's really not about sticking a plaster on and ride like the wind to the nearest A&E. Sometimes, you have to stabilise the casualty on scene, before deciding what next. I've seen doctors perform surgery in a car.tim said:
Tonights new medical drama - UKIP Hospital.anotherDave said:
That's what the course is designed for. Emergency first aid. That's all that's required of most ambulance trips. Emergency first aid, and a fast ride to a hospital - which is where the doctors are.SMukesh said:
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.SMukesh said:
It depends what they were sent to as some are minor emergencies,others are life-threatening.On occasions,ambulance personnel are expected to insert a tube through the throat into the lungs to prevent imminent death-not a skill which can be learnt in 5 days.anotherDave said:
How is this bad? Ambulances are emergency first aid, and a fast trip to hospital. They're not an A&E department.tim said:Cathy Newman @cathynewman
Leading #c4news tonight on FirecrestFilms scoop re private ambulances attending emergencies - some staff have just 5 days medical training.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!
No foreign doctors and a fast car.
None of that 'elf n safety.
Anyway, trauma is one thing, diagnosing a diabetic coma is something else, and difficult to grasp on a 5 day course.
0 -
Good topic Henry and well written. I can only speak about Scotland but I suspect it will be like some English areas.
The Liberals (never mind the Dem bit) have historically been strong in the Highlands and Borders of Scotland. It is only since 1983 that they started making major inroads into Grampian. Similarly it was only in 1987 Sir Ming Campbell at his 3rd attempt rested NE Fife from the Tories and of course during the last Labour govt, Willie Rennie was successful in industrial Fife. The LibDems will be defending 5 Westminster seats in the Highlands and Islands in 2015. They only successfully defended 1 of the equivalent seats in 2011. In Fife they only have Sir Ming's seat which they also lost in 2011 and they lost the 2 Aberdeenshire seats they will be defending in 2015.
The LibDem MEP was the last of the 1st round MEPs in Scotland to be elected last time around. The consensus seems to be that both SNP and Labour will win 2 seats, that the Tories will win the 5th seat, leaving the final seat.
Currently people seem to be arguing over whether it is Labour rather than the SNP which secures the final seat. Few if any expect the LibDems to hold their seat. Many are speculating the LibDems could be 5th behind either UKIP or the Greens. If they were, that would spell disaster for their prospects in 2015.0 -
Music to Nick's ears come May 2015 !!MarkSenior said:
No they are still saying likely Palmer gain .Andy_JS said:ABC News are predicting that Clive Palmer will lose in Fairfax although he's currently ahead by 718 votes:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-160.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/fair/
0 -
Those are interesting examples.Andy_JS said:Regarding the fact that hardly any 2010 Tory voters are switching to Labour, it means that Labour might have a tough task wining some of their top targets where there isn't a large LD vote to squeeze.
For example, North Warwickshire, Thurrock and Hendon are Labour's top three targets from the Tories, but in each of those the LD vote is already quite low:
LD vote:
North Warwickshire: 5,481 (11.6%)
Thurrock: 4,901 (10.7%)
Hendon: 5,734 (12.4%)
North Warwickshire - The Lib Dem vote went down in 2010, so not much sign of disaffected Labour voters defecting to the Lib Dems there, unless the Lib Dems lost a whole bunch of voters to the Tories.
Thurrock - Again, the Lib Dem vote declined in 2010.
Hendon - And for a final time, the Lib Dem vote here declined in 2010.
0 -
1st Aid should be taught in schools.. .perhaps in the last year, everyone can be caught up in an emergency and even a little knowledge could save a life.
I still remember first aid that was taught to me as a coal miner, many years ago, and even as an army cadet,0 -
Never mind 5000.Isn`t the Tory margin tiny in these seats?In Hendon it is 108 I think.OblitusSumMe said:
Those are interesting examples.Andy_JS said:Regarding the fact that hardly any 2010 Tory voters are switching to Labour, it means that Labour might have a tough task wining some of their top targets where there isn't a large LD vote to squeeze.
For example, North Warwickshire, Thurrock and Hendon are Labour's top three targets from the Tories, but in each of those the LD vote is already quite low:
LD vote:
North Warwickshire: 5,481 (11.6%)
Thurrock: 4,901 (10.7%)
Hendon: 5,734 (12.4%)
North Warwickshire - The Lib Dem vote went down in 2010, so not much sign of disaffected Labour voters defecting to the Lib Dems there, unless the Lib Dems lost a whole bunch of voters to the Tories.
Thurrock - Again, the Lib Dem vote declined in 2010.
Hendon - And for a final time, the Lib Dem vote here declined in 2010.
0 -
Labour may find it easier to win seats like Warrington South and Northampton North where there is a very large LD vote to squeeze than seats higher up the target list with a much lower LD share.0
-
@Easterross
Labour could only get a third seat if they outpoll the SNP.
SNP (or Labour) will get a third seat if their vote is more than a 3x multiple of each of LD, Green and UKIP.
Otherwise, whoever is highest from LD, Green and UKIP will get the sixth seat...0 -
Point taken.But surely it should be possible to squeeze 100 votes from 5734.(2%).Currently LD votes are splitting 1:3 for Labour.Andy_JS said:Labour may find it easier to win seats like Warrington South and Northampton North where there is a very large LD vote to squeeze than seats higher up the target list with a much lower LD share.
0 -
Yep.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's really not about sticking a plaster on and ride like the wind to the nearest A&E. Sometimes, you have to stabilise the casualty on scene, before deciding what next. I've seen doctors perform surgery in a car.tim said:
Tonights new medical drama - UKIP Hospital.anotherDave said:
That's what the course is designed for. Emergency first aid. That's all that's required of most ambulance trips. Emergency first aid, and a fast ride to a hospital - which is where the doctors are.SMukesh said:
Do you really think a first-aid course is sufficient to attend life-threatening emergencies?anotherDave said:
First Aid At Work is a 3 day course.
http://www.redcrossfirstaidtraining.co.uk/Courses/First-aid-at-work-courses-uk-mainland/Scheduled-courses/First-aid-at-work.aspx
You need your head examined!
No foreign doctors and a fast car.
None of that 'elf n safety.
Anyway, trauma is one thing, diagnosing a diabetic coma is something else, and difficult to grasp on a 5 day course.
My question (I have obviously not seen the report) is whether there is at least one fully-trained staff member on each ambulance. Most ambulances seem to have a crew of at least two - if one person is trained to a higher level, whilst the other (presumably the driver) is trained to a lesser level, that may be excusable.
But if both staff on an ambulance only have five days' of training, I'd be slightly nervous. If it is common and not a one-off, then it looks as though there might be a serious problem.
Another question is how it compares to other people running the service, especially with the availability of paramedics.
As is often the case, not enough information.
Mrs J and I are/were both first aiders and fire wardens. I never had to use the training, but Mrs J did when an outside contractor renovating the office cut through his arm instead of a partition. Fortunately she's not afraid of blood. Which reminds me, my first aid training needs refreshing. But I'm a contractor now, so I'll have to pay for it myself ... :-(0 -
E.g.RodCrosby said:@Easterross
Labour could only get a third seat if they outpoll the SNP.
SNP (or Labour) will get a third seat if their vote is more than a 3x multiple of each of LD, Green and UKIP.
Otherwise, whoever is highest from LD, Green and UKIP will get the sixth seat...
SNP 30% 3
Lab 22% 2
Con 15% 1
UKIP 9.5% 0
LD 8.0% 0
GRN 7.0% 0
Oth(s) 8.5% 0
SNP 29% 2
Lab 22% 2
Con 15% 1
UKIP 9.7% 1
LD 8.0% 0
GRN 7.0% 0
Oth(s) 9.3% 00 -
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Political momentum - far more Conservative voters (78%) than Labour (59%) or Lib Dem (51%) think their party going in right direction0 -
I just don't know what they are thinking anymore - given the level of internal opposition the Conservative leader is continually having to deal with, which we are told is meant to be representative of grassroots discontent, how can so many be fine with their current direction? Fickle support as the economy finally, finally begins to pick up a bit? Or are the vocal minority just really irritatingly loud even by vocal minority standards?Plato said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Political momentum - far more Conservative voters (78%) than Labour (59%) or Lib Dem (51%) think their party going in right direction
0 -
Perhaps the unhappy Tories have mostly jumped ship?kle4 said:
I just don't know what they are thinking anymore - given the level of internal opposition the Conservative leader is continually having to deal with, which we are told is meant to be representative of grassroots discontent, how can so many be fine with their current direction? Fickle support as the economy finally, finally begins to pick up a bit? Or are the vocal minority just really irritatingly loud even by vocal minority standards?Plato said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Political momentum - far more Conservative voters (78%) than Labour (59%) or Lib Dem (51%) think their party going in right direction
0 -
Tony Benn in hospital. He hopes to be out of hospital next week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24081267
I wonder if he'd felt ill after hearing the namedrop in the latest Pet Shop Boys song.Searching for the soul of England, drinking tea like Tony Benn.
A rather catchy song if you like electropop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7w0eqUBp3c0 -
Maybe, although enough remain who are discontented to seem representative of all those who remain.anotherDave said:
Perhaps the unhappy Tories have mostly jumped ship?kle4 said:
I just don't know what they are thinking anymore - given the level of internal opposition the Conservative leader is continually having to deal with, which we are told is meant to be representative of grassroots discontent, how can so many be fine with their current direction? Fickle support as the economy finally, finally begins to pick up a bit? Or are the vocal minority just really irritatingly loud even by vocal minority standards?Plato said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Political momentum - far more Conservative voters (78%) than Labour (59%) or Lib Dem (51%) think their party going in right direction0 -
It is - in all the schools I've been in anyway. Recovery position, CPR, burns, scalds, shock etc. At one time we had assessments done/certificates given by St John Ambulance, but it got too expensive so now we do our own.richardDodd said:1st Aid should be taught in schools.. .perhaps in the last year, everyone can be caught up in an emergency and even a little knowledge could save a life.
I still remember first aid that was taught to me as a coal miner, many years ago, and even as an army cadet,
I wish I had a quid for everything someone says 'should be taught in schools' that is.0 -
A corrollary to those times when someone says 'there should be a law' and there is.Carola said:
I wish I had a quid for everything someone says 'should be taught in schools' that is.richardDodd said:1st Aid should be taught in schools.. .perhaps in the last year, everyone can be caught up in an emergency and even a little knowledge could save a life.
I still remember first aid that was taught to me as a coal miner, many years ago, and even as an army cadet,
I recall one PSHE day at my school on first aid, and nothing else though.0 -
Carola .. I wish I had a quid for everything not taught in schools..but 1st aid helps everyone regardless of class, colour, gender or political affiliation, maybe it could be part of the humanities curriculum.
The pupils might actually like it.0 -
"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
0 -
I remember we were taught a little First Aid at primary school. I distinctly remember things like heart compression, kiss of life and the recovery position.richardDodd said:Carola .. I wish I had a quid for everything not taught in schools..but 1st aid helps everyone regardless of class, colour, gender or political affiliation, maybe it could be part of the humanities curriculum.
The pupils might actually like it.0 -
UNS would give:-anotherDave said:"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Con 13
LD 3
GRN 2
SNP 2
PC 1
0 -
Me too - and how to throw a rope/lifebelt, rescue someone over mud/sand - we did it when in the last year of primary school. Really useful skills that I feel glad to know. It was done instead of a couple of PE classes by St Johns and a fireman IIRCSunil_Prasannan said:
I remember we were taught a little First Aid at primary school. I distinctly remember things like heart compression, kiss of life and the recovery position.richardDodd said:Carola .. I wish I had a quid for everything not taught in schools..but 1st aid helps everyone regardless of class, colour, gender or political affiliation, maybe it could be part of the humanities curriculum.
The pupils might actually like it.0 -
YouGov (Euros)/The SunilanotherDave said:"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
Tory/UKIP 48%
Europhiles 40%0 -
They do seem to love it - though some can be a bit shy about giving the 'Little Anne' dummy the kiss of life...richardDodd said:Carola .. I wish I had a quid for everything not taught in schools..but 1st aid helps everyone regardless of class, colour, gender or political affiliation, maybe it could be part of the humanities curriculum.
The pupils might actually like it.
A few years back we had a girl who was credited for saving her - gran's, I think - life thanks to her school first aid training.0 -
Line from John Wells in Anyone for Denis: "I see Wedgewood Benn's in Charing X Hospital...psychiatric ward."
0 -
I
I like those numbers.RodCrosby said:
UNS would give:-anotherDave said:"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Con 13
LD 3
GRN 2
SNP 2
PC 10 -
It's handy to look at the views of all Conservative voters from 2010, rather than current Conservative voters.kle4 said:
Maybe, although enough remain who are discontented to seem representative of all those who remain.anotherDave said:
Perhaps the unhappy Tories have mostly jumped ship?kle4 said:
I just don't know what they are thinking anymore - given the level of internal opposition the Conservative leader is continually having to deal with, which we are told is meant to be representative of grassroots discontent, how can so many be fine with their current direction? Fickle support as the economy finally, finally begins to pick up a bit? Or are the vocal minority just really irritatingly loud even by vocal minority standards?Plato said:Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
Political momentum - far more Conservative voters (78%) than Labour (59%) or Lib Dem (51%) think their party going in right direction
0 -
Greens training day,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24068318
Greens are only alternative - in their dreams.
0 -
Mmm, but even D'Hondt seems to be biased in Labour's favour. Under pure PR would we expect UKIP to have a 4 seat lead on those VI figures...Sean_F said:I
I like those numbers.RodCrosby said:
UNS would give:-anotherDave said:"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Con 13
LD 3
GRN 2
SNP 2
PC 10 -
Looking upthread I think it's incredibly complacent for Labour supporters to think they'll benefit from widespread tactical voting, and so long as they poll in the mid-thirties in 2015, they'll be home and dry.
Back in 2001, Labour could finish with 140 more seats than the Conservatives, if the parties were level-pegging. By 2010, that advantage had fallen to 50. Take into account first-time incumbency, that advantage will likely be down to c.20 by 2015.0 -
Incorrect. Cameroon-Tories are europhiles!Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov (Euros)/The SunilanotherDave said:"According to @yougov #EP elections next year: UKIP 30%, Labour 25%, Con 18%, LibDem 8%, Greens 7%"
twitter.com/AdamsonPaul/status/378496744520417280
"it was a powerpoint presentation at this year's @YouGovCam conference"
Tory/UKIP 48%
Europhiles 40%
0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
