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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party
Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats.
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I always had the impression that they had very distinct appeals in the Highlands vs the South West vs the South East
But if not....
A posturing leftist party, previously full of bonkers policies with eff all chance of enactment lo and behold finds themselves in power. As the junior party in a coalition. And put there by sulky Labour supporters who realised their own party had blown it.
So what did they realistically expect? That this needs to be said is sad in its commentary on LD voter expectations. Nick Clegg gets it. The LDs are in power but not in power (pretty much the same as the Cons, AAMOF) and he has made tangible inroads into and exerted real influence over government policy.
Of course if you're going to say that they shouldn't have budged on tuition fees, fracking, etc then you are arguing that they should have stayed out of the coalition.
Not sure I agree with that. Last time round LDs got 13.7% and Green 8.1% - wouldn't take an outrageous LD-Green swing for green to come 4th (20% if I calculate it right)
Seriously SO, what do you think will be labour's platform for the European election? What will they do to get the vote out?
Dave's message will be: Small state, don't imperil recovery, Labour damage being repaired, success in school choice, employment good news, etc. An easy journey to a coherent and compelling manifesto. They're already on a war footing.
The LibDems will have to choose lefty or righty. Lefty says: We had to sleep with Dave and everything we've done since 2010 was under duress and he farts under the duvet. Righty says: 'Same as Dave' but fluffier. Their journey to a coherent and agreed manifesto looks like it will be a bunfight, with the two sides of the party still not really reconciled to each other's existence. Some activists will campaign for their record in government and some against.
Labour's message will be: Erm.....Erm.....Please trust us not to act like Labour in power yet again.
Labour has the hardest journey of all to a credible manifesto. And Ed is not really setting this up yet with any clear steer on who they are, what they believe or what they'd do in power.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)
In answer to Henry's question, it's not really obvious where they'd focus, and I wonder if you can do much focusing on a regional level anyhow. They didn't score immensely highly last time but still got a fair few seats, so I'd have thought they'd try to hold them all. I suppose there's a point (a little below 10%?) where they mostly get wiped out, but if that happens it happens, and they should at least stay above zero.
What do people think of the Farage for Sheffield Hallam rumour. Personally I think it would be brilliant. The question would be whether he could convince Tories they can't win there and trying to get people to rally round an anti-Clegg alternative. You could argue from a leftist perspective that getting rid of Clegg would be more important than getting one more Labour MP. About time Farage chose somewhere anyway.
I think the Euros will be terrible for the Lib Dems. They will win a very modest share of the vote and they will be fourth in most areas but I suspect they may not lose too many seats as a consequence.
As an example take SE England, not their worst area. There are 10 MEPs. They have 2. They may well lose 1 (effectively Sharon Bowles who has stood down) but they won't lose both without a total meltdown. So Catherine Bearder will probably be re-elected.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_East_England_(European_Parliament_constituency)
In the south west they have 1 MEP who will almost certainly be re-elected. And so on.
BBC – “Mr Clegg said the peer always attacked him "at this time of year" and his leadership was not under threat.”
HenryG - All part of the circus that passes for a LD conference…!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24077816
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-should-consider-ousting-nick-clegg-says-key-peer-lord-oakeshott-8812916.html
And look at Labour's share of the vote in the Southern English and Eastern regions at the last GE, where they finished with a lower share of the vote in a three horse race than the Tories did in Scotland in a four horse race
As a resident of Sheffield Hallam, I can't see it being fertile ground for UKIP.
Edit - Though I could see them picking up votes in the city and where the soap dodging students live.
Edit 2 - and not in sufficient numbers to do challenge Clegg, The Tories or Lab
I think this sort of thing is a bit overdone. All major parties get a good dose of votes everywhere. For all the panda talk in Scotland the Conservatives still get hundreds of thousands of votes, don't they?
In a sense, the Lib Dem approach to the election will be easiest. They focus on defending a small number of seats and attacking a few others. The Conservatives have more to defend and attack, and Labour likewise. Of course, those parties also have more funds.
As the economy recovers could we see a lot more fire being turned on the Cleggites as Labour struggles to cling to 35% ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24077796
"Despite regularly criticising the Conservative leadership, describing the prime minister and chancellor as "arrogant, posh boys", the MP for Mid Bedfordshire remains popular in her party. "
Relevance set to minimum, perhaps.
In related news, Morrissey has pulled his autobiography 3 days prior to its expected release:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-24077284
Some disagreement with the publisher, it would seem. Still, that's rather more sensible than Assange, who managed to oppose his own autobiography.
It's the final set of councillors (including myself) elected before the Lib Dems entered Government, who have yet to face the fires of defending seats as part of coalition. Local parties will be focussing on winning council seats, and in target parliamentary seats there will be plenty of external resource flooding in. Euro campaigns will all flow from the council campaigns; it's the local base that really matters not the MEP having an office.
For what it's worth, if the Lib Dems came out with a "we believe Europe can be made to work, and we are the only party to vote for to give 2 fingers to UKIP" campaign, I think they would do better than most expect, not sure I can see them being bold enough though.
The Tories start off second in Sheffield Hallam so in the (IMHO unlikely) event that Clegg is really in danger it's hard to see them rolling and leaving it to UKIP.
I suppose there's an outside chance he could split the vote in just the right way to give Labour one of the Thanets, but they start way behind, so I doubt it'll bother the voters, to the extent that they're aware of tactical considerations.
Agreed. Does this mean that labour's chances of winning the euros are overestimated I wonder?
The problem for Clegg is that at the locals since the Coalition came into being his party has been losing between 1/4 and 1/3 of all the seats they are defending. That way lies death for the Lib Dems, and not just as a national party. They really need to start doing a little better.
Is there any prospect that Labour will come third at the euros?
However their tutors do and they are natural Lib Dems.
Plus there's two large Unis in Sheffield.
Farage would be better off going 30mins down the road and standing in Doncaster North.
LD 11561
Lab 6774
Con 5048
Green 3326
UKIP 2019
Ind 736
But assuming a +14 lead among women and equal propensity to vote (don't know) then implies roughly even stevens among men.
1. There is a real chance that the LDs may be overtaken by the Greens and drop to 5th.
2. Consider the impact of the removal of 8,9 or 10 MEPs and all those paid activists, as Mr Manson points out?
3. What if the LDs had no MEPs? Yes a very small chance, but would that be curtains for Clegg?
The d'Hondt voting system has enabled the LDs to be a significant force in Europe, however the LD euro vote could drop below the cliff edges that it needs to secure a seat in many of the Regions.
"In his state of the union speech on Thursday, Mr Barroso suggested those seeking to reverse ever-closer integration in the EU risked returning the continent to "the pre-integrated Europe of the divisions, the war, the trenches". "
Not being pro-EU does not equal wanting a return to world war.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24077795
It reminds me of those who play the race card on immigration. Instead of winning the argument on a rational basis the approach is to paint opponents of ever more immigration as racists. It's quite despicable.
The Lib Dems are down 44% of their 2008 polling at this stage in the cycle. That scale of reduction in 2014 would take the LDs below the share that the 5th placed Greens achieved in 2009. Unlikely perhaps but, if the Greens had a little surge!
Just look at the results Mark Senior has posted.
There's a lot of admiration for Clegg, plus I suspect quite a lot of people like having as their MP the Deputy PM.
That is a ludicrous post . The October 2008 Populus LD figure was 15% and last week's Populus had LD at 14% . What would that scale of reduction give ?
If European elections had any relevance to general elections then Ukip would be vying for government and not the odd seat or two !!
It's one of the rituals of Party Conference season that immediately before a Party gathers, some form of "bad news" story rears its ugly head. Either a poor by-election or a defection, a controversial book or memoir,an off-hand statement or a poor poll - anything that will, in the eyes of journalists and those hostile to that party, cause division and confusion. We'll see it with both Labour and the Conservatives over the next couple of weeks.
It's part of the warp and weft of politics and for those hostile to that Party, something to get their teeth into, open up the wounds and have a good gloat. As such, it can largely be ignored.
Henry's article portrays the European elections as some sort of make or break for the Liberal Democrats. Er, no. It's the election in whcih the party has always under-performed. I well remember the wonderful 1994 local election results for the Party and how the Conservatives were going to be wiped out at the following month's European elections. Of course they weren't - who now remembers Richard Huggett and the Literal Democrats in Devon ?
As others have opined, I'm much more interested in how many Councillors we win in Sutton, Kingston and Richmond than how many MEPs we get. I suspect that, UKIP aside, other parties have a similar view.
As to the Liberal Democrats being a "national party" - they never have been. The Party has traditional areas of strength in the south-west and Scotland and areas which have come and gone in the past forty years but it's often where the right local circumstances exist. In London, you have the LD stronghold of Sutton yet next door in Croydon there isn't a single LD Councillor. It's also true to say neither the Conservatives nor Labour are national parties either - it's vaguely Orwellian in some respects.
Sadly for the Lib Dems, I'm not convinced that it is "almost certain that the Liberal Democrats finish fourth". The Greens may well pip them to that spot.
SouthEast(1), Scotland, East Midlands, NorthEast, West Midlands, Yorks/Humber, Eastern, London, NorthWest, SouthWest, SouthEast(1)
Firstly, it's not like Farage can claim any great connection with Sheffield.
Secondly, it's not like the local Tory will willingly lay down his chance of becoming an MP.
Thirdly, what makes you think that in a straight Farage vs Clegg battle then centrist Tories wouldn't lean Clegg.
Fourth, isn't Sheffield Hallam one of the few places in the UK where the LibDems have maintained their local election base.
A more sensible test would be to look at the councils where there is no Lib Dem representation, as that gives a better indication of how widely spread their influence is.
FWIW I expect the Lib Dems to poll around 10-11% in the Euros next year and lose at most 2 MEPs .
36m20s into the linked video below.
http://youtu.be/ZJdyEB7aUQo
I think you're grossly overestimating the hatred and dislike of Nick Clegg in Sheffield.
IIRC he's been out campaigning during the various local elections, and received warm welcomes.
I know it is one council election result, but this spoke volumes (from May)
The Liberal Democrats may have had mixed electoral fortunes across the country, but in a crucial council byelection in the Sheffield suburb of Fulwood the party's performance was more assured.
Fulwood is the quintessential 'leafy suburb' and lies right in the heart of the Sheffield Hallam constituency of the deputy prime minister and Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg.
A third of families here live in detached houses; nearly a fifth of these have five or more bedrooms (the national average is less than 5%). This is not, it is fair to say, the Sheffield of The Full Monty.
Despite spirited campaigns by both Labour and the Conservatives, the seat remained solidly Lib Dem on Thursday night. Cliff Woodcraft, a 63-year-old community campaigner who lives in the ward, cruised to a comfortable victory, gaining 1,400 more votes than Labour's Olivia Blake, who leapfrogged the Tories' Vonny Watts into second place.
The Lib Dems actually gained about 400 more votes than their 2012 total, on a virtually identical turnout. No-one will be more relieved by this impressive win than Clegg. Since he held his Sheffield Hallam seat in the balmy days of 2010 with a comfortable 15,000 majority, he has faced a torrid time locally.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/the-northerner/2013/may/03/sheffield-local-elections-liberal-democrats
I've just come across an August 2012 Peter Kellner article looking at the LDs.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/08/28/lib-dems-lament/
The 2010 LD > Labour switchers appear to be far left Labour supporters.
The Lib Dems will put more effort into the local elections but expect the media to focus on the Euros after the event.
There said it for you tim, now have the rest of the day off.
No one much cares about it (except the Lib Dems who will care very deeply...)
In contrast, as tpkfar points out, the May locals will have much greater import on capabilities for 2015.
As for Farage in Hallam - bring it on!
He'll get stuffed.
Clegg may be a media tart, but he's their media tart.....
So this whole "2010 Lib Dem switchers to Labour" is horse feathers - they were Labour in the first place!
"In 2010, the Lib Dems secured the votes of 1.6 million Labour identifiers and 1.8 million people with no party ID. The Labour-ID group was more left-wing than Labour voters generally. They comprised a mixture of people who were disillusioned with Labour over such matters as Iraq and student fees, and tactical voters – passionate anti-Tories who feared that Labour couldn’t win locally. The vast majority of these voters have now returned to Labour. Today, just 200,000 Labour identifiers would vote Lib Dem."
Their part in the coalition has been a petulant and treacherous one, and (for once) this behaviour has been seen by all. No more hiding behind "we would be different in government", no more radically different messages for different constituencies, and no more credibility as the "third way".
I look forward to the day they sit among the DUP and Plaid Cymru as equals.
All that time, I never saw a paid Agent or anyone else apart from the Cowley Street (and before that National Liberal HQ) staff most of whom also seemed to be volunteers.
It may be very different now. One of the aspects of Party Conference season is that it allows the "professionals" to mix with the "amateurs". I found it hard going exchanging an interest, hobby or passion which I did for a couple of hours maybe two or three evenings a week to four or five full and quite intense days (inclding the socialising).
Makes you wonder how awful a government and how abject a leader Labour would have aspire to to make them turn away ?
Oh wait- yes they polled only 28% in England in the 2010 GE....
Now, maybe this is the case (Nick P claims to know lots of such voters in Broxtowe), but if so it's hard to see why they voted LibDem in 2010, thus gifting those marginal seats to the Tories. What were they thinking?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlabgap.html#tactical
They're not Lib Dems who've "seen the light".
Tho if there were this many of them, one wonders how many Lab supporters in 2010 really did sit on their hands at home.....but instead went out and voted Lib Dem.....
You can also take 3 off the Tories and give it to UKIP.