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FPT
I wonder if I've been counted as 'claiming benefit' even though I haven't been eligible since my Income-based JSA ran out nearly two years ago.
On a more positive note, I have two interviews within the next week, and will have had three in the last seven weeks - after eleven months on the trot without any.
As I said a few weeks ago it would be interesting for a poll to ask who the Great British public trust most Obama/Cameron or Putin. I know who I do.
'You've never had it so good' indeed. ;^ )
Edited to add... good luck with the job interviews!
Jesus, I'm sure the PB Tories knew that two thirds of new jobs would go to foreign nationals under the coalition, but nobody expected this
@Simon_Nixon: Fathom Consulting: The number of UK real estate jobs is now at a record high – 100,000 more than at 2008 peak. #bubblewatch
Not Fathom Consulting again, tim!
This tiny think tank first burst onto the scene in May when they predicted an imminent 20% increase in house prices in response to George's introduction of the Help to Buy scheme.
I suspect the 100,000 more estate agents than at 2008 peak is as reliable an estimate.
Still they do know how to self-advertise.
Just think, with mortgage loans currently running at an annualised rate of 46% of the 2007 peak, perhaps estate agents can be held responsible for the whole of the UK's fall in productivity of 8% since the recession?
That line might even get Fathom a few more column inches.
The man has lost the plot. Not a time for childish soundbites I'd have thought.
Good cartoon Marf. Inspired by PB's very own financial guru 'Hunchman'?
"...If you already think the Tories are amoral monsters who care only for the rich, you'll cheer Ed Miliband on. But if you're a floating voter, you're less likely to be convinced. Indeed, you may – I'd say probably would – be more turned off by the rather hysterical tone of Labour's accusations, bemused by the disconnect between the cheerful, ruddy-cheeked chap behind the Dispatch Box and the moustache-twirling, top-hatted villain of Ed and his colleagues' imagination.
As I said, it may well be an effective approach, with banks of data to support it. But all this outraged shoutiness has another significant flaw – it makes the Leader of the Opposition seem even more like a student-union agitator, eternally convinced that his enemies aren't just wrong, but downright evil. And that, as if it needs saying, isn't exactly a quality that people like their prime ministers to display." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robertcolvile/100235509/pmqs-is-labour-getting-too-shrill-for-its-own-good/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2416963/MAX-HASTINGS-The-humiliation-Obama-Putin-swaggers-Moscow-dunghill.html
Good article by Max Hastings.
I paricularly liked this astute summing up of Cameron and Hague in all their self righteous feebleness "While the British boy scouts in Downing Street urged on Washington with arguments about its moral responsibility"
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/old-school-ties-dominate-coalition-20130525-2n3nb.html
Of course, it is not only the right which is privately educated, so was Obama at the most prestigious private school in Hawaii, albeit on a scholarship
JOB SNOB !
I know. Easy to do. But I am a generous man and will repost it.
Housing Bubbles
How to distinguish between a bubble, a bust and a gentle recovery.
Note that 2009-2010 figures are distorted by the decision to add back in the 'off-balance sheet' mortgages moved offshore during the first half of the noughties to support covered bond issues. This added approximately £250 bn to amounts outstanding over two years resulting in 25% increases for 2009 and 2010. This means that the pre-crash annual increases are understated by a significant amount. It also means that the underlying fall in mortgage lending between 2008-2010 is obscured.
Oh Gord! What a fine mess you got us into.
John Redwood seems to be under the impression that government spending is rising rather than falling. Perhaps you should show him one of your screenshots?
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/08/21/carry-on-spending-2/
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/09/05/rewriting-the-script-on-austerity-politics/
And leaflets about "cashing in on the value" go straight into the recycling bin.I might not care about leaving my (adult) children a substantial inheitance, but I'm sure as whatever not going to leave them with debts!
What I want to see is my working neighbours being able to afford food etc, and not having their wages falling behind inflation!
Oh, and by the way, best of, Sunil!
Let private enterprise flourish - and ignore the metropolitan sneering snobs who don't think that designing, building and selling homes is a worthwhile endeavour.
By the way where is Ratty? I miss him.
Have to disappear for dinner in a few minutes, so I have only had a chance to skim through Redwood's articles.
From what I see, I don't see a conflict in the figures I quoted. Spending in nominal terms is has gone up over the first three years of outcome and is forecast to do the same in the last two years of this parliamentary term. This is to be expected. Osborne cannot hold back the tide of inflation.
In real terms expenditure has gone down over the first three years and is forecast to be some 2.75% down net over the five year term. Total Managed Expenditure as a % of GDP will also be reduced by 4.55% over the five years. In two years, however, 2010 and this fiscal year, real terms expenditure has been forecast and planned to rise.
My figures are from the July release of the Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA 2013) which is the same month of release as the 2013 Blue Book referred to by Redwood. Reconciling the two may not however be easy.
As the PESA figures are aggregrated figures (Total Managed Expenditure) there is a fair chance that Redwood is looking at a subset such as Central Government expenditure.
I will check again in more detail later tonight, but I don't anticipate any real conflict. Redwood would prefer much heavier cuts in expenditure to Osborne. But it is precisely the restraint that Osborne has shown in restricting fiscal consolidation to 1% per annum that has enabled the UK to recover sooner than its EU competitors and with greater velocity (currently) than any of the G7 countries.
Too early to be concerned. There's no doubt Ed's laziness has been the reason for his present troubles. No one has any idea where he stands on anything.
If he doesn't choose to define himself the vacuum will be filled by his opponents. It's too late to replace him so we'll just have to hope he finds himself a good agency with a coherent strategy
I had loads of interviews and eventually got employed and hated it,then met up with a crazy entrepreneur,took a risk and joined him,and had a great career.
You never know where your career will lead you,sometimes the opportunity comes out of the blue.
First, good luck to Sunil for the job interview. If he shows the same personality that he shows when helping visitors at North Weald, he's a certainty.
On-topic, George Osborne has enjoyed some good fortune in his tenure as Chancellor. While it may be churlish to argue that the recovery has happened in spite rather than as a result of his actions, it's reasonable to argue that time and the economic cycle have been big factors in leading a general recovery (of sorts) across Europe and the US.
I was never a fan of QE and bank bailouts and the billions poured into QE have now produced financial markets addicted to Government-based stimulus. Even the possibility of withdrawing that stimulus sent markets sliding. In the same way, we have all got used to cheap money and at some point normal monetary policy will have to return and we will have to get used to a different rate regimen with the impact that will have on loans and mortgages.
We thought him as bad as Carter; he is worse: a ditherer, a bungler, and worse a dangerous loser. Dangerous for all of us that live in the western world and other democratic countries.
Most agree that Obama is a lame duck president. Will he escape impeachment?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100235457/its-official-barack-obama-is-now-a-lame-duck-president/
If anyone's wondering I will be taking the train - can't remember the last time I had two interviews within three days, but I guess it means I only have to rehearse one presentation
The looks on Carney's face when Ed Conman asked him whether the Bank of England supported the Help to Buy scheme was 'a picture to behold'.
HTB is capped at £130 bn over three years and this appears an appropriate stimulus given the real terms fall in mortgage lending since pre-crisis levels. Current lending is around £90 bn per annum compared to £221 bn in 2007, so around 39% of peak. In addition, at present, householders are paying down mortgages faster than they are taking out loans, In 2007, each quarter on average, the banks new lending was £53 bn compared to repayments of £43 bn.
As the total three year stimulus is only around 16.6% of current outstandings, there is little to suggest that the current plans will cause a bubble similar to that blown up by Brown in the first half of the noughties decade.
The facts and figures speak for themselves, If you disagree, provide a worked example using figures of how a bubble might be created.
Until or unless you do, I will treat you with the same disdain and look that Carney visited upon our friend Conman.
Statistic of the day - employment stats show 77,000 more estate agents than last year
----------
Did someone talk about a bubble?
Is that today's main news?
Initially about Labour "losing the argument" on the economy but then much more strongly on Ed - first he said Ed had today had his lowest ever poll ratings and then he went on to say that Ed may be entering some "very difficult days".
He didn't quite go so far as to say his leadership could be under threat but he wasn't far off.
This looks very bad for Ed - people who don't follow politics that closely trust the BBC and if the BBC say he is doing badly then people will think he really is doing badly.
OR
Get Yvette in asap.....
Obama, as a Democrat, was untainted with any of this and appealed directly to the home audience and to pocketbook issues. That's how it works in the US - the outsider plays on the domestic agenda. In truth, many Americans don't care much for the international scene and have the same view of the world beyond the borders as George V had.
There's certainly something not quite right about this "recovery"
Good luck next week, mate. You deserve a break.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/july-2013/stb-uk-trade--july-2013.html
Best of luck with the interviews.
Not even a rise in interest rates will slow this down.
Revealed: the gentrification map of London
Look how many tractors we're producing! It's in sober blocky font and everything, with a yellow background, it must be authoritative!
Is a bandwidth issue.
If you are attending an interview, whatever else you do:
DO NOT MENTION THE WAR
Martin Boon @martinboon 2h
@ICMResearch soon to join the #indyref fray with a regular polling feature. Look out for our first poll, currently in field. #MRX
Also wishing my best to Sunil.
OKC - under English law one can't inherit a debt, so your children are safe. On the other hand, it is possible to inherit an estate encumbered by debt, which can cause problems dividing it, and at any rate I am sure your children approve of your prudence.
Under Roman civil law, it was possible to inherit the debts of another. As a result of the principle of "universal succession" the heir to an estate would succeed its owner for all legal purposes, including for the performance of sacred rites, contractual and delictual (≈tort) rights, and the payment of debts. The damnosa hereditas (ruinous inheritance) would be most unwelcome.