Monthly trade figures are highly volatile. Last month surprised on the upside. This month on the downside. As Mr. Brooke stated correctly, the trend is upward both on tha six monthly rolling average and year on year. On a long term basis exports have not recovered to pre-crisis levels but this is as mainly due to the 15% per annum falls in oil and gas exports due to falling North Sea output experienced since 2010.
Sorry Avery , I do not understand are you blaming the bad trade figures in July on itinerant French onion sellers ?
Sorry Avery , I do not understand are you blaming the bad trade figures in July on itinerant French onion sellers ?
No, Mark. What I am saying is that anyone looking at a series of monthly trade figures will note a sawtooth pattern in a line graph. Indeed that is what you see when looking at the first chart in the most recent ONS 'Summary: UK trade July 2013' bulletin.
If you read on a couple of paragraphs you will also note the warning from the ONS about placing too much emphasis on a single month's trade figures:
Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, it is recommended to compare the latest quarter against the preceding quarter and the same quarter of 2012. The comparison with a year earlier should be viewed, though, with caution at the moment; figures (particularly export data) for the spring months of 2012 were unusually volatile, possibly due to the unusual pattern of public holidays in that period.
The headline for the June bulletin was:
The deficit of trade in goods for June 2013 was £8.1 billion, an increase of £0.6 billion on the previous month and within the range of normal month to month movements.
The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Exports of goods reached a record high of £26.9 billion in June, an increase of £1.3 billion from May. Imports for the same period increased £0.7 billion to £35.0 billion.
The corresponding headline for the July bulletin was:
The deficit of trade in goods and services for July 2013 was £3.1 billion compared with a deficit of £1.3 billion in the previous month. This is the largest deficit since October 2012 (£3.5 billion).
The deficit on trade in goods was £9.9 billion in July 2013. The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Exports of goods fell 7.6% on the month to £24.8 billion for July 2013. Imports for the same period fell 1.0% to £34.7 billion
So we see a "record high" in June followed by a "record low" for July.
Probably best to just take note of the "Longer Term Perspective" [July report]:
The value of trade in goods has grown only gently since the beginning of 2007. In that year, and into 2008, there was steady growth as the UK economy and those of our major trading partners expanded. That expansion came to a sharp end during 2008 and, as these economies turned downwards, so did the levels of trade. Growth was not resumed until summer 2009. It was steady for the two years after that, but with the continuing difficulties in many economies in moving out of recession, the value of both exports and imports has remained flat since mid-2011.
In 2012, the deficit on trade in goods increased by £8.6 billion to £108.7 billion (annually). The level of exports increased to a record £300.5 billion in 2012, up 0.7% from £298.4 billion in 2011. However, the rise in exports was accompanied by an increase in imports to a record £409.2 billion in 2012, up 2.7% from £398.5 billion in 2011. Despite these record levels of exports and imports, annual growth has slowed considerably since 2010 and 2011 when growth was seen to accelerate as part of the global recovery from the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
My rugby playing son did a session with England forwards coach Graham Rowntree at his club tonight, filmed by Sky Sports. Not sure when it's on, but my son is the tight head with the ridiculously big thighs.
Completely off topic but I felt the urge to share this. I came across this quotation:
'Yesterday is but a dream: Tomorrow is only a vision. But Today well-lived makes every yesterday a dream of happiness; and every tomorrow a dream of hope. (Abhijnanasakuntalam of Shantukala by Kalidasa - a Sanskrit poet of the 5th century)
I hereby claim this as a sound-bite for the Liberal Democrats.
That's his aim. He's not there yet though. He has the talent, but is somewhat lax in his application. And that is a huge differentiator once you get to a certain level. He's off to uni the week after next, so we'll see if he can be disciplined or if it all goes pear-shaped.
I can't believe I missed this, it happened in August, when I was editing the site, think of the threads I could have done
What could the Romans have done for us?
"Three quarters of voters reckon emperors in ancient Rome had better policies than today’s parties, a bizarre study has revealed. Two thousand Brits were shown a manifesto secretly based on what the Caesars pledged — and 43 per cent said they would vote for it. A third even mistook it for the work of a modern-day party — despite it including a vow by crazed Caligula to let horses into Parliament." - The Sun (£)
While the UK economy is showing rapid improvement, our trade balance and current account should remain a longer-term area of concern. Essentially, British exports have remained marooned around £40-42bn a month for the last 18 months, and are only up around a third up from the lows of late 2009. (See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports)
Let us compare with my favourite - Spain. Monthly exports have been rising pretty consistently (albeit with more volatility than the UK) and are now at more than twice the lows of late 2009. And this is despite the Spaniards having to put up with being shackled to the Euro.
The consequence is that Spain runs a current account surplus - more money is coming in to the country through exports, and tourism than is going out for imports. Just five years ago, Spain's current account deficit was 10% of GDP, a frankly unbelievable turnaround. With the UK, the trend is the opposite - our current account deficit is worsening. That is, we have to borrow from abroad to pay for our Volkswagen Polos and Sony TVs.
Remember, you heard it hear first: Spain is leaving recession and there are going to be some incredible opportunities here.
The 5,191 respondents, three times the size of a normal YouGov poll, put Labour on 39 per cent, the Tories on 33 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent and UKIP on 12 per cent.
Asked “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband?”, 41 per cent chose the Tory option and 40 per cent Labour.
Remarkably, Lib Dem voters seem more enthusiastic about a further coalition with the Tories than Labour— 49 per cent wanted a Tory government led by Mr Cameron while 32 per cent preferred Labour led by Mr Miliband.
I'm wondering: do people use the phrase "sent to Coventry" in Coventry itself?
Not sure - I am from Coventry myself ! I know it is used for the football team - Send us to Coventry as the fixtures are played 35 miles out the city in Northampton at the moment.
@TSE, that's because all the LD voters who preferred coalition with the Labour Party now support the Labour Party,
The question for the LDs is whether they can get them back.
The question for the Conservatives is whether they can move right and recapture UKIP voters without scaring off the metrosexuals of Richmond Park and other leafy suburbs. This is a particular issue because losing one vote to the LDs in a Lib-Con battlefield is worse than losing one to UKIP. (As in, a vote lost to the LDs is a two vote swing.)
The question for the Labour Party is whether they can convince the population their leader is not a gibbering idiot.
The question for UKIP is whether they can go 'Beyond Farage'.
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
Well, duh.
Who, other than the 11% of professed LibDem voters, would want them in government?
Does anything matter to the Tories, beyond lining their pockets?
By and large, private industry is more efficient than public. British Telecom, in the days when it was part of the Royal Mail and had Busby as its mascot, was a hideously inefficient organisation. It's not perfect these days, but if it doesn't offer a decent service it will lose customer to Virgin or whoever, the shareprice will fall, and the CEO will face the sack.
And, why do you think it is in the interests of the British people for trees to be owned by the government?
@TSE: I would note that 51% were not clear about what they would change their mind about; it could be homeopathy or their star sign or who they'd vote for on X-Factor...
While the UK economy is showing rapid improvement, our trade balance and current account should remain a longer-term area of concern. Essentially, British exports have remained marooned around £40-42bn a month for the last 18 months, and are only up around a third up from the lows of late 2009. (See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports)
Let us compare with my favourite - Spain. Monthly exports have been rising pretty consistently (albeit with more volatility than the UK) and are now at more than twice the lows of late 2009. And this is despite the Spaniards having to put up with being shackled to the Euro.
The consequence is that Spain runs a current account surplus - more money is coming in to the country through exports, and tourism than is going out for imports. Just five years ago, Spain's current account deficit was 10% of GDP, a frankly unbelievable turnaround. With the UK, the trend is the opposite - our current account deficit is worsening. That is, we have to borrow from abroad to pay for our Volkswagen Polos and Sony TVs.
Remember, you heard it hear first: Spain is leaving recession and there are going to be some incredible opportunities here.
All true, Robert.
But Spain doesn't have an Oil and Gas industry collapsing as fast as Gordon's property boom.
The UK's trade position is getting better (albeit too slowly) if the Oil and Gas figures are excluded.
I have been looking too at the figures for the individual North Sea fields and everything you have said about depletion velocity stares at you in the face, The old 1970s fields show a beautiful bell curve stretched over 30 years or more. The more recent fields show linear declines which deplete within a couple of years.
Am I correct in understanding that while 2010 LD voters prefer Milliband, but that the remaining LD voters prefer Cameron. It would seem logical to me, but then fewer things are more peculiar than voters, such as my Pro EU, but UKIP voting father!
Asked “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband?”, 41 per cent chose the Tory option and 40 per cent Labour.
Remarkably, Lib Dem voters seem more enthusiastic about a further coalition with the Tories than Labour— 49 per cent wanted a Tory government led by Mr Cameron while 32 per cent preferred Labour led by Mr Miliband.
I can't believe I missed this, it happened in August, when I was editing the site, think of the threads I could have done
What could the Romans have done for us?
"Three quarters of voters reckon emperors in ancient Rome had better policies than today’s parties, a bizarre study has revealed. Two thousand Brits were shown a manifesto secretly based on what the Caesars pledged — and 43 per cent said they would vote for it. A third even mistook it for the work of a modern-day party — despite it including a vow by crazed Caligula to let horses into Parliament." - The Sun (£)
Am I correct in understanding that while 2010 LD voters prefer Milliband, but that the remaining LD voters prefer Cameron. It would seem logical to me, but then fewer things are more peculiar than voters, such as my Pro EU, but UKIP voting father!
Asked “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband?”, 41 per cent chose the Tory option and 40 per cent Labour.
Remarkably, Lib Dem voters seem more enthusiastic about a further coalition with the Tories than Labour— 49 per cent wanted a Tory government led by Mr Cameron while 32 per cent preferred Labour led by Mr Miliband.
While the UK economy is showing rapid improvement, our trade balance and current account should remain a longer-term area of concern. Essentially, British exports have remained marooned around £40-42bn a month for the last 18 months, and are only up around a third up from the lows of late 2009. (See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports)
Let us compare with my favourite - Spain. Monthly exports have been rising pretty consistently (albeit with more volatility than the UK) and are now at more than twice the lows of late 2009. And this is despite the Spaniards having to put up with being shackled to the Euro.
The consequence is that Spain runs a current account surplus - more money is coming in to the country through exports, and tourism than is going out for imports. Just five years ago, Spain's current account deficit was 10% of GDP, a frankly unbelievable turnaround. With the UK, the trend is the opposite - our current account deficit is worsening. That is, we have to borrow from abroad to pay for our Volkswagen Polos and Sony TVs.
Remember, you heard it hear first: Spain is leaving recession and there are going to be some incredible opportunities here.
All true, Robert.
But Spain doesn't have an Oil and Gas industry collapsing as fast as Gordon's property boom.
The UK's trade position is getting better (albeit too slowly) if the Oil and Gas figures are excluded.
I have been looking too at the figures for the individual North Sea fields and everything you have said about depletion velocity stares at you in the face, The old 1970s fields show a beautiful bell curve stretched over 30 years or more. The more recent fields show linear declines which deplete within a couple of years.
On Spain, where are the manufactures?
A quarter of Spain's exports are cars and car parts. Nissan recently opened a big plant there, and pretty much all Polos are made in Northern Spain. A large portion of Volkswagen's engines are too. Ford and Renault are investing heavily too (see http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/28/business/spain-auto-soares)
It's also worth noting that Zara - one of the biggest clothing makers and retailers - is part of Inditex, a Spanish company.
Clegg from a list of 20, the most common were “out of his depth” (41 per cent), “weak” (40 per cent), “out of touch” (27 per cent) and “indecisive” (26 per cent).
@TSE, that's because all the LD voters who preferred coalition with the Labour Party now support the Labour Party,
The question for the LDs is whether they can get them back.
The question for the Conservatives is whether they can move right and recapture UKIP voters without scaring off the metrosexuals of Richmond Park and other leafy suburbs. This is a particular issue because losing one vote to the LDs in a Lib-Con battlefield is worse than losing one to UKIP. (As in, a vote lost to the LDs is a two vote swing.)
The question for the Labour Party is whether they can convince the population their leader is not a gibbering idiot.
The question for UKIP is whether they can go 'Beyond Farage'.
- Proposed by a Labour Business Secretary following a report by Richard Hooper commissioned by a Labour government
- Confirmed by a LibDem Business Secretary following a second report by Richard Hooper
- Actioned by a Tory Chancellor
That's what Tories do: get on with governing properly. What a pity the last lot couldn't even manage something which is so uncontroversial that all three parties which have been in government in living memory agree it should be done.
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
So, if the next election looks like being a choice between a Labour majority and a LD/Lab coalition, Tories in Lab/Con marginals will vote Labour to avoid the latter? I don't think so, somehow.
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
So, if the next election looks like being a choice between a Labour majority and a LD/Lab coalition, Tories in Lab/Con marginals will vote Labour to avoid the latter? I don't think so, somehow.
This Tory is thinking of voting tactically for the Lib Dems at the next General Election.
Though I do concede, I'm probably the exception, rather than the rule
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
So, if the next election looks like being a choice between a Labour majority and a LD/Lab coalition, Tories in Lab/Con marginals will vote Labour to avoid the latter? I don't think so, somehow.
This Tory is thinking of voting tactically for the Lib Dems at the next General Election.
Though I do concede, I'm probably the exception, rather than the rule
Yes, there cant be too many Tories with your taste in shoes...
While the UK economy is showing rapid improvement, our trade balance and current account should remain a longer-term area of concern. Essentially, British exports have remained marooned around £40-42bn a month for the last 18 months, and are only up around a third up from the lows of late 2009. (See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports)
Let us compare with my favourite - Spain. Monthly exports have been rising pretty consistently (albeit with more volatility than the UK) and are now at more than twice the lows of late 2009. And this is despite the Spaniards having to put up with being shackled to the Euro.
The consequence is that Spain runs a current account surplus - more money is coming in to the country through exports, and tourism than is going out for imports. Just five years ago, Spain's current account deficit was 10% of GDP, a frankly unbelievable turnaround. With the UK, the trend is the opposite - our current account deficit is worsening. That is, we have to borrow from abroad to pay for our Volkswagen Polos and Sony TVs.
Remember, you heard it hear first: Spain is leaving recession and there are going to be some incredible opportunities here.
All true, Robert.
But Spain doesn't have an Oil and Gas industry collapsing as fast as Gordon's property boom.
The UK's trade position is getting better (albeit too slowly) if the Oil and Gas figures are excluded.
I have been looking too at the figures for the individual North Sea fields and everything you have said about depletion velocity stares at you in the face, The old 1970s fields show a beautiful bell curve stretched over 30 years or more. The more recent fields show linear declines which deplete within a couple of years.
On Spain, where are the manufactures?
A quarter of Spain's exports are cars and car parts. Nissan recently opened a big plant there, and pretty much all Polos are made in Northern Spain. A large portion of Volkswagen's engines are too. Ford and Renault are investing heavily too (see http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/28/business/spain-auto-soares)
It's also worth noting that Zara - one of the biggest clothing makers and retailers - is part of Inditex, a Spanish company.
16% agree with a hung parliament after the next general election with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power could be a good thing, 60% disagree
So, if the next election looks like being a choice between a Labour majority and a LD/Lab coalition, Tories in Lab/Con marginals will vote Labour to avoid the latter? I don't think so, somehow.
This Tory is thinking of voting tactically for the Lib Dems at the next General Election.
Though I do concede, I'm probably the exception, rather than the rule
Yes, there cant be too many Tories with your taste in shoes...
Those shoes are no more, alas.
But you can now design your own shoes and colour via the Nike website
There is then a risk that by trying to regain the 2010 deserters, the party will lose the pro-coalitionistas. As well as annoying these loyalists, an explicitly anti-coalition 2015 campaign will lack coherence. Interesting times!
The current LD voters do seem more right wing than the activists.
Am I correct in understanding that while 2010 LD voters prefer Milliband, but that the remaining LD voters prefer Cameron. It would seem logical to me, but then fewer things are more peculiar than voters, such as my Pro EU, but UKIP voting father!
Asked “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband?”, 41 per cent chose the Tory option and 40 per cent Labour.
Remarkably, Lib Dem voters seem more enthusiastic about a further coalition with the Tories than Labour— 49 per cent wanted a Tory government led by Mr Cameron while 32 per cent preferred Labour led by Mr Miliband.
- Proposed by a Labour Business Secretary following a report by Richard Hooper commissioned by a Labour government
- Confirmed by a LibDem Business Secretary following a second report by Richard Hooper
- Actioned by a Tory Chancellor
That's what Tories do: get on with governing properly. What a pity the last lot couldn't even manage something which is so uncontroversial that all three parties which have been in government in living memory agree it should be done.
Could do with it happening around March 2015. 'Nailed on' Ed is determined to crock my betting positions on GE 2015.
By and large, private industry is more efficient than public. British Telecom, in the days when it was part of the Royal Mail and had Busby as its mascot, was a hideously inefficient organisation. It's not perfect these days, but if it doesn't offer a decent service it will lose customer to Virgin or whoever, the shareprice will fall, and the CEO will face the sack.
And, why do you think it is in the interests of the British people for trees to be owned by the government?
I am sure this won't be news to OGH Jr but the very large World Management Survey run by Stanford, LSE and Harvard Business School has produced a wealth of material. The working paper "Management practices across firms and countries" by Nicholas Bloom, Christos Genakos, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen is very much worth reading. Or at any rate, looking at the pretty graphs at the end of it.
It covers not just the effect of public/private sector on management effectiveness and firm outcomes, but also the impact of competition (which is relevant to the monopoly point). They have had some interesting things to say about family-owned firms, too (including Many economic historians blamed Britain’s decline relative to America and Germany to "personal capitalism" - a line of argument that certainly came up in my Economic History course).
I've got a spreadsheet from the Harvard academic Pippa Norris. I also have a Python script I used to scrape the constituency results from the BBC site, and another for the Telegraph. And I downloaded a copy of the Press Association's spreadsheet (via the Guardian). The Telegraph results turned out to be error-strewn, but irritatingly even the rest have a variety of discrepancies, some of which I never got to the bottom of.
Some disputes were over whether to include the Thirsk and Malton result (which was run later due to a candidate's death), whether Bercow counted as a "Conservative" in Buckingham, and whether the North Ayrshire and Arran candidate for the Tories counted as official after the party disowned him. Some spreadsheets mistakenly conflated the Northern Ireland Green Party with the England and Wales Green Party.
Other problems I never solved! Derby South for instance, UKIP and an Independent got 1821 and 1357 votes, but which way round? The BBC, the PA/Guardian, the parliamentary website, and Derby CC reckoned that UKIP got 1821 and the indy 1357, whereas Pippa Norris reckoned it was UKIP 1357 and the indy 1821. I'm tempted to think Pippa Norris was wrong on this one.
In Morecambe and Lunesdale did the Lib Dems get 5791 votes (BBC, Lancaster Council, the parliamentary website), or 5971 votes (Pippa Norris, PA/Guardian, and ukpollingreport)?
In Worcestershire West, did the Lib Dems get 20,409 votes (Pippa Norris, Worcs CC) or 20,459 votes (the BBC site, and parliament.uk)?
Other places where Guardian/PA differ from Pippa Norris: in Cambridgeshire North East did UKIP get 2791 votes, or 2991? In Caerphilly, did the Lib Dems get 5688 or 5988? In Buckingham, did UKIP get 8401 or 8410?
I know these are only small errors but it's frustrating not to have a single reliable source for something as basic as election results!
If anyone could fill me in with some the actual results in my mystery constituencies, or point me in the direction of anyone who might know more, I would be most grateful. Are there a couple of other forums I might try my luck asking in?
The 5,191 respondents, three times the size of a normal YouGov poll, put Labour on 39 per cent, the Tories on 33 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent and UKIP on 12 per cent.
Exactly the same result as usual, but quite a small margin of error there.
- Proposed by a Labour Business Secretary ... all three parties which have been in government in living memory agree it should be done.
You're confusing Mandy with the Labour Party. There was a very clear majority in Labour against doing it. Moreover, Mandy was against privatisation too - he wanted a minority shareholding to get benefits of private investment without losing control, and we thought even that was too much. I can see the parcel service being privatised, but the universal letter service is a de facto monopoly (because nobody is going to start a rival universal service), and privatising it is as silly as privatising rail.
Did you see the spreadsheet I posted yesterday with the 2010 results?
I'm interested in sorting out the discrepancies you referred to. David Boothroyd on VoteUK often quotes the official expenses returns as the most reliable source of results.
The Press Association sometimes makes mistakes which then get repeated by all other sources. For example in 1997 they said the Labour vote in Beverley was 20,818 when it was actually 20,418. Most sources today still incorrectly quote 20,818 as the figure.
@AndyJS - did you compile it by actually listening to the results as they were declared?
Thinking about it, are we even sure that the results that get read out are correct- a lot of the discrepancies I found looked like transcription errors (swapped or altered digits) and I can imagine an error creeping in during the preparation of the results to be read out, or even the act of reading out itself, not just in the reporting of the results!
(I was particularly interested in your records of 5,791 in Morecambe and Lunesdale, 20,459 in Worcestershire West, 5,688 in Caerphilly!)
UCL is a fantastic place to be a student, btw. It's basically Sex, Drugs n Rock n Roll BUT - situated in maybe the greatest city in the world. You have the mummified and cloistered body of Utilitarian Philosopher Jeremy Bentham on the one hand, yet a global megacity 20 foot from your West End Halls of Residence on the Other.
Even when I was a drunk, deluded, and drug-addled 19-year-old UCL Philosophy Student, I realised that I was Significantly Privileged.
Imperial was great - South Kensington a fantastic location. I spent nearly 10 years there in the end. (BSc, PhD and first Post-doc).
Comments
Libyan jihadist group asks supporters to vote for missile target on Facebook
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/11/libyan-jihadist-missile-target-facebook
Following Raceclear today?
Mark. I'll put up with just about any piece of name calling on PB, but calling me French crosses a line !
Thanks!
Sorry Avery , I do not understand are you blaming the bad trade figures in July on itinerant French onion sellers ?
No, Mark. What I am saying is that anyone looking at a series of monthly trade figures will note a sawtooth pattern in a line graph. Indeed that is what you see when looking at the first chart in the most recent ONS 'Summary: UK trade July 2013' bulletin.
If you read on a couple of paragraphs you will also note the warning from the ONS about placing too much emphasis on a single month's trade figures:
Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, it is recommended to compare the latest quarter against the preceding quarter and the same quarter of 2012. The comparison with a year earlier should be viewed, though, with caution at the moment; figures (particularly export data) for the spring months of 2012 were unusually volatile, possibly due to the unusual pattern of public holidays in that period.
The headline for the June bulletin was:
The deficit of trade in goods for June 2013 was £8.1 billion, an increase of £0.6 billion on the previous month and within the range of normal month to month movements.
The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Exports of goods reached a record high of £26.9 billion in June, an increase of £1.3 billion from May. Imports for the same period increased £0.7 billion to £35.0 billion.
The corresponding headline for the July bulletin was:
The deficit of trade in goods and services for July 2013 was £3.1 billion compared with a deficit of £1.3 billion in the previous month. This is the largest deficit since October 2012 (£3.5 billion).
The deficit on trade in goods was £9.9 billion in July 2013. The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Exports of goods fell 7.6% on the month to £24.8 billion for July 2013. Imports for the same period fell 1.0% to £34.7 billion
So we see a "record high" in June followed by a "record low" for July.
Beginning to see the problem, Mark?
[to be continued]
[...continued]
Probably best to just take note of the "Longer Term Perspective" [July report]:
The value of trade in goods has grown only gently since the beginning of 2007. In that year, and into 2008, there was steady growth as the UK economy and those of our major trading partners expanded. That expansion came to a sharp end during 2008 and, as these economies turned downwards, so did the levels of trade. Growth was not resumed until summer 2009. It was steady for the two years after that, but with the continuing difficulties in many economies in moving out of recession, the value of both exports and imports has remained flat since mid-2011.
In 2012, the deficit on trade in goods increased by £8.6 billion to £108.7 billion (annually). The level of exports increased to a record £300.5 billion in 2012, up 0.7% from £298.4 billion in 2011. However, the rise in exports was accompanied by an increase in imports to a record £409.2 billion in 2012, up 2.7% from £398.5 billion in 2011. Despite these record levels of exports and imports, annual growth has slowed considerably since 2010 and 2011 when growth was seen to accelerate as part of the global recovery from the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
#newsnight has been told that Royal Mail will be sold off at 7am tomorrow
Now I realise Sky frequently have difficulty with their figures, but this is one time to forgive, forget and celebrate.
I am considering a reprieve.
But after due thought I believe it is best put to a vote in the HoC and Congress.
New borrowing facilities will be disclosed alongside details of the historic privatisation, Sky News learns.
http://news.sky.com/story/1140451/royal-mail-secures-1-4bn-debt-deal
George will have to go to the Trafalgar Square sorting station tomorrow morning.
If you are quick Sunil you may get there first and you will then be able to tell your interviewers to sod off.
I am less confident of the blues getting 40% or over VI or GE shares.
Good to see Mr. Fletcher on again.
'Yesterday is but a dream:
Tomorrow is only a vision. But Today well-lived makes every yesterday a dream of happiness;
and every tomorrow a dream of hope.
(Abhijnanasakuntalam of Shantukala by Kalidasa - a Sanskrit poet of the 5th century)
I hereby claim this as a sound-bite for the Liberal Democrats.
On the other hand "Abhijnanasakuntalam" looks bloody unpronounceable. I may attribute the quote to 'Stan' instead.
Though there's a part of that name you can't utter in polite society.
What could the Romans have done for us?
"Three quarters of voters reckon emperors in ancient Rome had better policies than today’s parties, a bizarre study has revealed. Two thousand Brits were shown a manifesto secretly based on what the Caesars pledged — and 43 per cent said they would vote for it. A third even mistook it for the work of a modern-day party — despite it including a vow by crazed Caligula to let horses into Parliament." - The Sun (£)
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/frontpage/2013/08/thursday-29th-august-2013.html
While the UK economy is showing rapid improvement, our trade balance and current account should remain a longer-term area of concern. Essentially, British exports have remained marooned around £40-42bn a month for the last 18 months, and are only up around a third up from the lows of late 2009. (See: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports)
Let us compare with my favourite - Spain. Monthly exports have been rising pretty consistently (albeit with more volatility than the UK) and are now at more than twice the lows of late 2009. And this is despite the Spaniards having to put up with being shackled to the Euro.
The consequence is that Spain runs a current account surplus - more money is coming in to the country through exports, and tourism than is going out for imports. Just five years ago, Spain's current account deficit was 10% of GDP, a frankly unbelievable turnaround. With the UK, the trend is the opposite - our current account deficit is worsening. That is, we have to borrow from abroad to pay for our Volkswagen Polos and Sony TVs.
Remember, you heard it hear first: Spain is leaving recession and there are going to be some incredible opportunities here.
Mr. Eagles, you should post that story on the next Nighthawks thread, as I'm off now and therefore unable to offer more detailed thoughts.
The 5,191 respondents, three times the size of a normal YouGov poll, put Labour on 39 per cent, the Tories on 33 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent and UKIP on 12 per cent.
Remarkably, Lib Dem voters seem more enthusiastic about a further coalition with the Tories than Labour— 49 per cent wanted a Tory government led by Mr Cameron while 32 per cent preferred Labour led by Mr Miliband.
The question for the LDs is whether they can get them back.
The question for the Conservatives is whether they can move right and recapture UKIP voters without scaring off the metrosexuals of Richmond Park and other leafy suburbs. This is a particular issue because losing one vote to the LDs in a Lib-Con battlefield is worse than losing one to UKIP. (As in, a vote lost to the LDs is a two vote swing.)
The question for the Labour Party is whether they can convince the population their leader is not a gibbering idiot.
The question for UKIP is whether they can go 'Beyond Farage'.
Who, other than the 11% of professed LibDem voters, would want them in government?
Stock market flotation of UK's Royal Mail to be confirmed at 0700 on Thursday, BBC's Newsnight has been told - via @BBCAllegra
Stock Market flotation of Royal Mail @ 07.00 hrs tomorrow.
And, why do you think it is in the interests of the British people for trees to be owned by the government?
For Con voters it is 32%, Lab voters 34%
25% said they would never vote Lab
33% said they would never vote Conservative
But Spain doesn't have an Oil and Gas industry collapsing as fast as Gordon's property boom.
The UK's trade position is getting better (albeit too slowly) if the Oil and Gas figures are excluded.
I have been looking too at the figures for the individual North Sea fields and everything you have said about depletion velocity stares at you in the face, The old 1970s fields show a beautiful bell curve stretched over 30 years or more. The more recent fields show linear declines which deplete within a couple of years.
On Spain, where are the manufactures?
Almost seven out of ten — including three in ten Lib Dems — said that Mr Clegg had “betrayed his principles to become Deputy Prime Minister”.
Monopolies are far more inefficient in private hands. Some things have to be public goods, the "market" simply doesn't work properly.
That's why they can't and won't privatise the army, or police, or the political system itself. Arguably.
It's also worth noting that Zara - one of the biggest clothing makers and retailers - is part of Inditex, a Spanish company.
DHL, G4S and Virgin posties racing up the driveway of Nether Farwood Farm in Outer Sticksville to try to deliver their piece of Tesco junk mail first?
http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2013#sorting=rank+region=+country=+faculty=+stars=false+search=
*jealous*
- Proposed by a Labour Business Secretary following a report by Richard Hooper commissioned by a Labour government
- Confirmed by a LibDem Business Secretary following a second report by Richard Hooper
- Actioned by a Tory Chancellor
That's what Tories do: get on with governing properly. What a pity the last lot couldn't even manage something which is so uncontroversial that all three parties which have been in government in living memory agree it should be done.
You are making some highly defamatory comments and smears, regarding Royal Privisation, please desist, and acknowledge that you understand.
Ecole Normale Superieur: 28th (beaten by Toronto and Australian!)
and Heidelberg: 50th. How on earth did Germany manage to mess up its universities so comprehensively?
Though I do concede, I'm probably the exception, rather than the rule
But you can now design your own shoes and colour via the Nike website
http://store.nike.com/gb/en_gb/pw/nikeid-air-max-shoes/1k9ZbrkZb8d
Those shoes were the fashion equivalent of falling asleep on your train and waking up in Bournemouth after midnight.
There is then a risk that by trying to regain the 2010 deserters, the party will lose the pro-coalitionistas. As well as annoying these loyalists, an explicitly anti-coalition 2015 campaign will lack coherence. Interesting times!
The current LD voters do seem more right wing than the activists.
It covers not just the effect of public/private sector on management effectiveness and firm outcomes, but also the impact of competition (which is relevant to the monopoly point). They have had some interesting things to say about family-owned firms, too (including Many economic historians blamed Britain’s decline relative to America and Germany to "personal capitalism" - a line of argument that certainly came up in my Economic History course).
Aussie bowlers are dropping like flies, and they will need to play Mitchell Johnson in the Tests.
http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/series-correct-score
If it is a success, The Tories can take the credit, if it is a disaster, we can blame Vince Cable.
Win/Win
Did you see the spreadsheet I posted yesterday with the 2010 results?
I'm interested in sorting out the discrepancies you referred to. David Boothroyd on VoteUK often quotes the official expenses returns as the most reliable source of results.
The Press Association sometimes makes mistakes which then get repeated by all other sources. For example in 1997 they said the Labour vote in Beverley was 20,818 when it was actually 20,418. Most sources today still incorrectly quote 20,818 as the figure.