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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels
Ipsos-MORI headline figures just those certain to vote
Amongst all those sampled by LAB lead 10
See pic.twitter.com/ehp7Mthk3B
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Ed, meanwhile, looks wounded. How serious we shall see.
I mean, citing Churchill as an advocate of appeasement, really?
5 years ago Dave had 28% lead with Mori.
"The correct figure for 2010 LD to Labour switchers is 26% "
Are you thinking of becoming one Mark?
Whilst its all very amusing fish in a barrel stuff - its not good for democracy to have a total numpty as LotO.
If Ed sells his soul to the Murdochs,am sure his ratings will climb up drastically but he won`t.Which opposition leader managed the U.S and UK going to fight an unnecessary war?Can anyone remember anyone else?
2011: Con: 35%, Lab: 37%
2012: Con: 31%, Lab: 38%
2013: Con: 25%, Lab: 29%, UKIP: 23%
Just one in five (19%) think the Labour leader has got a lot of personality, while double (40%) think Mr Cameron does.
However, David Cameron leads his rivals on some negative characteristics. Seven in ten (70%) believe the Prime Minister is out of touch with ordinary people (49% Mr Miliband, 56% Mr Clegg, 36% Mr Farage). Eight in ten (79%) believe Mr Cameron looks after some sections of society more than others (58% each for all three other leaders). Around half of Britons believe the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister are more style than substance (52% and 51% respectively) while 46% say the same of Mr Farage and 41% for Mr Miliband.
Messrs Cameron and Miliband are tied on being seen to understand the problems facing Britain (50% and 52% respectively), while Mr Farage is the least likely to be perceived to understand Britain’s problems on 36%.
Among all those certain to vote at the next general election Labour hold a three point lead over the Conservatives. However, this falls from a 10 point lead among all those naming a party. This difference is down to a sharp fall in Labour supporters being less likely than Conservatives to say they are certain to vote: 66% of Conservatives and 53% of Labour supporters (58% of Liberal Democrats and 67% of UKIP supporters).
...Three in ten (32%) Britons are satisfied with way the government is running the country while 60% are dissatisfied, exactly the same as last month..." www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3263/Labour-lead-of-three-points-as-Milibands-personal-ratings-fall-to-lowest-ever.aspx
Did you see the Scottish subsample?
Tories on 35%, SNP on 34%, Lab on 18%
If the first rule of politics is ... "It's the economy, stupid", surely the second rule should be "Look after the old gits" as they are the ones who vote.
They may die off more quickly, but they keep increasing in number as voters age. In twenty years time, Roger will be voting Ukip.
That 28% lead was the Voting Intention
Tories 52, Lab 24%, and the Yellow Peril on 14%
“There has been much discussion over the perceived softness of Labour’s lead, and this poll shows that clearly with a fall in Labour supporters’ certainty to vote giving them just a three point lead.
David Cameron maintains his lead on key Prime Ministerial qualities on being capable and good in a crisis – although remains vulnerable on being seen as out of touch. Ed Miliband’s satisfaction ratings, thought, have fallen from 40% at the end of last year to 24% this month.”
"I'll be consistent with my prediction made immediately after the infamous vote: Dave's will increase slightly, Ed's a notch down. Conceivably both will slip a mite but if so Ed's will be more. So difference between the two will be -12/13 against previous -10..."
So it's 16%. You should listen to your kindly Uncle John. Listen and then learn.
Whilst many of us chortle away at Ed, the wider picture is that the nation is not best served by having a lame duck LotO.
Ed becoming a figure of fun is not in the interests of good government albeit it'll provide hours of fun for Coalition PBers.
Labour folk can point to the 10% lead, Tories can say, well how crap is Ed.
I think Ed's poll ratings must bottom out soon. The only way to make them worse would be to wear Hague's baseball cap, but I wouldn't put it past him.
Otherwise, 20 months before a General Election and the Tories are in this position with the economy starting to surge back? Labour are toast.
Otherwise, 20 months before a General Election and the Tories are in this position with the economy starting to surge back? Labour are toast.
The opposition should worry less about the growth rate and more about developing its own story about the economy.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/recovery-or-not-problem-labour-tories-have-framed-debate
Essentially they need to get ex-members like Sean Fear back in the fold, and calling traditional Conservatives cranks and loonies has not worked for Cameron, his personal ratings are still dreadful while the people who he has tried so hard to appeal to (Roger et al) still loathe him on principle of not being a lefty and living in Notting Hill instead of Primrose Hill.
Infact when Ed's numbers improve as they are certain to do who knows what heights Labour will reach
By this point in the cycle people will have pretty much made up their mind's about Ed Miliband and nothing is going to change that. If anything opinion is likely to to harden further between now and 2015.
Kinnock didn't lose the 87 election in 87, he lost it in 84/85. Hague didn't lose the 2001 election in 2001 he lost it 1998.
People have never thought much to Ed - He just doesn't have the political X-Factor - Time has run out on being able to changes the publics perception.
Labour will have to work with what they've got - An unpopular leader of a pretty popular party.
Best thing they can do is hide Ed away during the election campaign as much as possible.
Wouldn't it be (and isn't it now) a case of they're all crap.
The more significant moment would be Tory leads?
Sean Fear is a person of integrity and principle; when he was in the Conservative Party he was always on its far right (that's no attack, all parties are coalitions). He has now chosen UKIP. It would be suicidal for the Tories to move so far in Sean's direction for him to return. Not that it matters but were it to do so, the party would very likely lose my membership and vote.
Edit: It could be out of Ed's hands, if the Lib Dems replace Clegg with Cable or Farron, they'd get a honeymoon bounce, and you could see Ed M trailing the Lib Dem leader by 20 points maybe?
What is the basis for your certainty that Miliband's personal rating will improve?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlTggc0uBA8
For one thing, barrels can be quite deep, and bullets will slow down fairly quickly in water won't they?
Then, once you've hit a few fish in the upper reaches of the barrel, these dead fish will form a protective layer on the water's surface, protecting the remaining fish in the barrel.
Ukip will become "the first force in British elections" because voters will prefer the real Euroscepticism of Nigel Farage to the copycat Conservative imitation of it, the European Commission president has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10301825/Jose-Manuel-Barroso-Ukip-will-beat-Tories-to-become-first-force-in-British-politics.html
Is this man a idiot or what,he's just given ukip the biggest praise you can get,well done Borroso.
It's not about appealing to people like Sean Fear specifically, none of the policy shifts I have mentioned would really alter the centre right positioning of the current party, but the message shift would allow Dave to appeal to more rightist voters and improve his image with them. We've had two quarters of decent growth since January (and we're most of the way through a huge third quarter) and the government seem not to have benefited from it, they are instead benefiting from Ed and Labour's awfulness. The idea that the economy will magically come to the rescue is not something that Cons should stake their house on.
Also, you can't deny that the membership figures are terrible right now, Dave's current problem is that in trying to appeal to everyone and be a jack of all trades, he now a master of none. To right wingers he is to leftist, to lefties his is "a Tory scumbag". Britain as a nation is becoming more polarised (I think Switzerland is a good example of this with the rise of the SVP and the almost destruction of the FDP) and the Tories will need to follow suit or face the same fate as the FDP, a slow death in terms of membership followed by a slow death in terms of seats in the house and the popular vote.
"Why are Ed's numbers certain to improve ??"
Because he's relatively unknown so there is no actual reason for his poor numbers.When the image makers get to work it should be relatively easy to give him a sparkling new persona.
They did it to Dave though few remember it now. He went from rather ridiculous Bullingdon Boy prodigy of Michael Howard to Caring Sharing Environentmentalist who wouldn't have looked out of place leading the Greens. Just smart marketing nothing else.
Dave Jibe Helped By Former Tennis Partner Andrew Castle
http://order-order.com/2013/09/11/dave-jibe-helped-by-former-tennis-partner-andrew-castle/
MichaelWhite @MichaelWhite
#PMQs Nice one from Cam on Labour's Gloria de Piero's Twitter feed. Should Ed M still be leader at coming election, MP was asked?
and poor Gloria's response to all this,that nasty Cameron - lol
Gloria De Piero @GloriaDePieroMP
Just received email from constituent 'Have just watched PM's questions and absolutely horrified at the rudeness shown to you by Mr Cameron.
You never get a second chance to make a first impression.
To be candid with you I have been astounded about how short the apparent lagged connection between the better economic news and its impact on the polls. Usually we are talking about 6 months and a more gentle slope.
Now I am not saying Tory majority nailed-on (though I have very longstanding bet - end 2010 I think - with tim that 2015 will see a pro Con swing), but should the nascent recovery accelerate through 2014 and be accompanied by people feeling better-off, then the prospects of Dave being re-elected move from being highly possible to very probable.
On the other hand, if by, say Jan 2015, the polls remain as they are today, then here's to Ed as our next PM.
The present course, politically and strategically is the right course. There is no alternative. U turn if you want to. Hersham man is not for turning*.
(*Except when he's in Bournemouth after an riotous pb party and needs to find a way back home)
"Standing at the back of the hall in Bournemouth yesterday, watching Ed Miliband make a hasty climbdown over his trade union reforms, I joined the majority of the delegates, and drifted. I retreated a decade, to the day I’d stood listening to Tony Blair addressing the TUC in Blackpool. Before he spoke, a commemoration of the names of the trade unionists who had died on September 11 had been scrolling down the conference screen. It seemed to go on for ever.
Blair’s speaking style when addressing the unions was very different to Miliband’s. The best way I can describe it is “conspiratorial”. It was like he was bringing his audience in on a big secret. He, Tony Blair, was actually one of them. He shared their ideals, and dreams and values. The only problem was, he couldn’t let anyone else know it. The voters, and the Tory press, didn’t like the idea of their Prime Minister getting too close to the unions. So he wouldn’t be telling them everything they wanted to hear. But it was all right. He was on their side.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100235548/labour-needs-its-link-with-the-unions-to-save-it-from-its-own-middle-class-metropolitan-guilt/
You are welcome..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/10301639/Prince-Harry-ribs-William-over-baby-chat-as-they-try-their-hand-at-City-trading-for-911-charity-day.html
"Prince Harry took delight in winding up his brother the Duke of Cambridge over his "baby chat" as they tried their hand at City trading to raise money for charity.
The Princes notched up a record trade for 25 billion euros but still had time to poke fun at each other, and play jokes on professional traders, at the BCG Partners brokerage in London's Docklands."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWLN7rIby9s
Mind you, the replies on twitter appear to be a load of cr@p.
What's different about Miliband is that his ratings have changed direction a second time.
Is the electorate becoming more fickle? Is it simply the more febrile times that we live in, due to economic angst?
I don't know, but I'd be wary of drawing comparisons to Kinnock without having the comparable data to hand.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03137634-1a13-11e3-93e8-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eaMZCFwP
You get 10 free articles a month if you don't know.
If this sort of thing continues perhaps Martin Wolf will have to take his excellent commentary elsewhere.
Michael Fabricant @Mike_Fabricant 2m
In 1991, then Labour transport spokesman John Prescott described the Jubilee Line Extension to the Docklands project as a ‘white elephant’.
It might be good if ed offered hodges a job ;-) just to shut him up ;-)
He's more like John Redwood in that clip who was also described as a gormless alien ...
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Sept13_PolMon_charts.pdf
slide 7 (although 9 and 10 give support)
For the last year and a bit, they've been 35% +/- 4.
They are not 'still going down'. They have basically plateaued since Omnishambles.
The only way to get them up is to get results and trumpet those results. But I think we're seeing the start of that.
A best case scenario is that nothing changes, which is hardly something he can trumpet as a personal victory for his leadership.
Cameron has managed to cut his membership to less than 100000.Maybe it`s even less than 50000+1(Plato).
That`s the real difference between the two leaders.