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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    First
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    tim said:

    What, no IDS?

    @SkyAnushka: PM & IDS on Universal Credit. We should not be "religious on timing" says PM, days after IDS staked his political rep on delivering on time

    Fact: IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    FPT -
    RedRag1 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    RedRag1 said:

    On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what the PB Hodges, PB Gideons and PB Tories say, as long as the 2010 Lib Dem switches stay where they are now and have been for three years, there will not be a Tory government, either on their own or in coalition and more than likely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

    http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

    ....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,419
    I must say, I was disappointed with Ed's effort at the TUC. I was expecting fireworks. Of course, Ed jumped the gun with Falkirk thing, accusing Unite of all sorts of electoral shenanigans. When those smears were proved baseless, Ed was left impotent and naked. I suppose he could have fought on regardless, but he's starting to look like a young man who doesn't like to cause a fuss and prefers nothing better than a nice cup of tea.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,194
    tim said:

    What, No Nigel Evans?

    @ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

    Will Preston Police Station be bringing charges?
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 667
    tim said:

    What, No Nigel Evans?

    @ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

    No speculation about Nigel Evans' guilt or innocence. Any posts on this topic will now require a link from a reputable UK news organisation

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Good evening, everyone.

    Thanks to Mr. Corporeal, Mr. Bertie and Mr. Lilburne for their helpful responses on the previous thread. I suddenly realised I'd got a nice thane/thegn (probably the former) title but needed a lower one as well (the rest are all English and so easy).

    Iesyth reminds me of Iestyn Harris [I think, a rugby player. Could be slightly wrong]. Might go for Gesydd.

    Many thanks for answers to that slightly obscure question.

    F1: Massa confirms he's leaving Ferrari:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24040973
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013
    FPT @Y0kel

    Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

    In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

    ...

    What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


    Y0kel

    The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

    This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

    There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

    A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

    Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RedRag1 said:

    FPT -

    RedRag1 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    RedRag1 said:

    On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what the PB Hodges, PB Gideons and PB Tories say, as long as the 2010 Lib Dem switches stay where they are now and have been for three years, there will not be a Tory government, either on their own or in coalition and more than likely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

    http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

    ....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.
    The percentage of 2010 LD voters who tell the pollsters that they have switched to Labour is nowhere near 30 to 40 % . It is currently averaging 23% for ICM/Populus/Yougov .
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    What know tim?

    Nothing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    edited September 2013
    RedRag1 said:

    FPT -

    RedRag1 said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    RedRag1 said:

    On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what theely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

    http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

    ....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.
    I can't quite see how you work that out by all measures 2012 was a good year for Miliband and a bad one for Cameron. 2013 has been a poor one for Miliband which has seen his league squeezed but not eliminated. Agaist this HMG has been operating with a moribund economy and some pretty poor communications. Looking in to 2014 I would anticipate the economy picking up and both sides having to up their political game. In such circumstances polls will start to thaw and as we draw nearer to the Ge opinions will start to mean something.
    At the moment both sides are telling themselves that this time it is different, but history has a habit of repeating itself. The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term and that an opposition needs a big lead in mid term to win an election. To me a HP is still the likely outcome and Nick Clegg is the main man.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,419
    MarkSenior said:



    The percentage of 2010 LD voters who tell the pollsters that they have switched to Labour is nowhere near 30 to 40 % . It is currently averaging 23% for ICM/Populus/Yougov .

    Really? That's interesting. And from that 23% you can probably deduct 13% for the respondents who use polls to comment on the political narrative, rather than as confession of voting intention. Remove 7% for the anti-Iraq SWP entryists and you get only 3% Lib-to-Lab switchers. That's nothing. Give the Lib Dems a further boost because they can now claim experience of governing and they will probably increase their share in 2015.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    AveryLP said:

    FPT @Y0kel

    Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

    In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

    ...

    What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


    Y0kel

    The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

    This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

    There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

    A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

    Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.

    As per my post, my understanding is that the Syrian's themselves be looking at notifying the locations of the weaponry with what I assume is a remote observation scheme. Whether that proves enough, we'll see.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited September 2013
    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,505
    edited September 2013
    Just uploaded:

    Documentary on Islington Council, from March or April 1983:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRWvcdyQITs&amp
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RedRag1 said:

    .....do I need to go on?

    No, RedRag.

    You may now retire to bed.

    Good night, and may flights of angels sing thee to thy sleep.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited September 2013
    Edit
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    FPT
    RedRag1 said:



    RedRag1 said:
    » show previous quotes
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

    Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited September 2013
    RedRag1 said:

    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

    Yes, YouGov excludes the don't knows and refused to says.

    If you add up the figures for 2010 Lib Dems, plus the refused to says/dont knows, on this morning's yougov it comes to 125%

    So that 34 is actually out of 125 as a percentage, less than 30% (27.2% actually)
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Note the chemical weapons are stored in only two locations when the regime-changers want to pretend Hague's Heart-Eaters couldn't have got hold of them but twenty to thirty locations when it comes to bombing.

    Funny that.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Y0kel said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT @Y0kel

    Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

    In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

    ...

    What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


    Y0kel

    The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

    This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

    There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

    A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

    Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.

    As per my post, my understanding is that the Syrian's themselves be looking at notifying the locations of the weaponry with what I assume is a remote observation scheme. Whether that proves enough, we'll see.
    This is a mess of Obamas own making. Mark Mardell (BBC) says that this could bring down the Obama presidency, or at the most make him a lame duck for 3 long bloody years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    lucy manning ‏@lucymanning 1m
    Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited September 2013
    corporeal said:

    FPT

    RedRag1 said:



    RedRag1 said:
    » show previous quotes
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

    Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

    Corpreal, I have given the figures for most of last week below, I could go on, but it would take too long. If you don't believe me check the Yougov site, as they always have the figures in their full results under the 2010 vote column. See below:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,505
    edited September 2013
    Keir Starmer has decided to charge Nigel Evans:

    http://blog.cps.gov.uk/2013/09/statement-from-the-director-of-public-prosecutions-keir-starmer-qc-on-the-case-of-mr-nigel-evans-mp.html

    Charges:

    • One count of indecent assault on a man, dating between 1 January 2002 and 1 January 2004, contrary to Section 15 Sexual Offences Act 1956

    • One count of indecent assault on a man, dating between 1 January 2003 and 1 January 2004, contrary to Section 15 Sexual Offences Act 1956

    • One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2009 and 1 January 2010, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

    • One count of sexual assault on a man, between 30 June 2009 and 1 August 2009, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

    • One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2011, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

    • One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2012, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

    • Once count of rape of a man, between 29 March 2013 and 1 April 2013, contrary to Section 1 Sexual Offences Act 2003

    • One count of sexual assault on a man, between 29 March 2013 and 1 April 2013, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    What, No Nigel Evans?

    @ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

    Breaking::::::::
    Nigel Evans charged of numerous sexual offences (BBC)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RedRag1 said:

    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

    Mr RedRag, I think you're reading the tables incorrectly.

    According the YouGov poll completed 5th-6th of September of the Sunday Times (i.e. the Friday one you refer to), in the headline voting intention of the LD2010 vote it lists 31% voting for Labour after excluding Wouldn't Vote and Don't knows.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    edited September 2013
    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,198
    RedRag1 said:

    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

    No, but I think you need to demonstrate how you calculated those figures.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RedRag1 said:

    corporeal said:

    FPT

    RedRag1 said:



    RedRag1 said:
    » show previous quotes
    Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

    Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

    Corpreal, I have given the figures for most of last week below, I could go on, but it would take too long. If you don't believe me check the Yougov site, as they always have the figures in their full results under the 2010 vote column. See below:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf
    Checking this one (the Thursday- 37% one you referred to in your initial post) as it says under the sub-title "Headline Voting Intentions" excluding Don't Knows and Wouldn't Votes
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    JohnLilburne said:

    RedRag1 said:

    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

    No, but I think you need to demonstrate how you calculated those figures.

    I have calculated them from using the figures given by the people who said they voted Lib Dem in 2010 on the Yougov website (excluding don't knows/wouldn't vote)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RedRag1 said:

    Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

    TSE has shown where your calculations are in error , similarly with ICM and Populus you must use the figures in Table 2 and not Table 3 .
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    20. God Save The Queen - Give Northern Ireland its own soccer anthem

    How about the cheeseburger song? I used to have as my ringtone last year when we had an Irish Republican working employed in the office.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Ribble Valley By Election?

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

    A by election is not inevitable.

    Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

    I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited September 2013
    corporeal said:

    TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.

    You'd be impressed, I posted that post, whilst talking to OGH on the phone and watching the football.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    Ribble Valley By Election?

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

    A by election is not inevitable.

    Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

    I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

    Whilst everyone is innocent until proven guilty, it would hang around his party like a stale fart in a lift.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    RedRag1 said:

    ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.


    So your figures are wrong, as you're excluding some of the 2010 Lib Dem figures
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.

    You'd be impressed, I posted that post, whilst talking OGH and watching the football.
    I am impressed, I'd have thought England in a bore draw to Ukraine would've put anyone into a coma.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Alanbrooke - " The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term ..."

    Governments often improve their position at the election after coming to office. They did in 1955, 1966 and 1983. Wilson also did better in the second 1974 election, though they were very close together. In addition, although Blair lost a handful of seats in 2001, he still won a landslide.

    Against that, there's only Attlee's second election in 1950 (though he did win), and Heath's defeat (just) in 1974.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RedRag1 said:

    ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

    But you cannot exclude the DK and WNV if you are calculating the percentage of 2010 LD voters who have switched to Labour because that substantial ( in this case ) group have NOT switched to Labour .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Well lets hope we don't draw. England completely played for the draw tonight...

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RedRag1 said:

    ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

    Well if you'd said at the start "30-40% of the LD2010 vote, excluding those who won't vote or don't know how they'll vote" then it'd have been accurate and not drawn objections.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,198
    GeoffM said:

    20. God Save The Queen - Give Northern Ireland its own soccer anthem

    How about the cheeseburger song? I used to have as my ringtone last year when we had an Irish Republican working employed in the office.

    Charming.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    I'd remind posters that today is a very good example of not jumping the gun, just because someone has been charged it doesn't mean they are guilty.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10299456/Coronation-Street-actor-Michael-Le-Vell-not-guilty-of-child-sex-charges.html
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RedRag1 said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    Ribble Valley By Election?

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

    A by election is not inevitable.

    Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

    I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

    Whilst everyone is innocent until proven guilty, it would hang around his party like a stale fart in a lift.
    As you said, RedRag, defendants are presumed innocent until proved guilty.

    Or as the DPP has said:

    “Can I remind all concerned that criminal proceedings are now active. All defendants have the right to a fair trial and it is very important that nothing is said, or reported, which could prejudice this trial.”

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    MikeK said:

    Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?

    Of the Conservative party? Yes they can chuck him out anytime they like. Of parliament only if convicted, sentenced, etc.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    edited September 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'd remind posters that today is a very good example of not jumping the gun, just because someone has been charged it doesn't mean they are guilty.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10299456/Coronation-Street-actor-Michael-Le-Vell-not-guilty-of-child-sex-charges.html

    You beat me to it, the press pack hatchet job on him in the last couple of weeks has been nothing short of despicable. Because of it many people will still have misgivings about him even though he is innocent, which is why I mentioned the stale fart in a lift about Evans.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Evans has resigned
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Y0kel said:

    Evans has resigned

    As Deputy Speaker
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Y0kel said:

    Evans has resigned

    As deputy speaker.

    Not heard that it is as an MP.

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Yes.

    Surely a slippery slope though?
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    corporeal said:

    RedRag1 said:

    ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

    Well if you'd said at the start "30-40% of the LD2010 vote, excluding those who won't vote or don't know how they'll vote" then it'd have been accurate and not drawn objections.
    From now on I will add on that line.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    BBC article re. Evans' resignation:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24042797
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Y0kel said:

    Yes.

    Surely a slippery slope though?

    I guess it depends how he pleads.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    MikeK said:

    Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?

    Oh Come on Nigel. Don't be a spoilsport - we want a by election !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

    @iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @lucymanning: Nigel Evans resigns as Dep Commons Speaker, won't sit as a Tory MP, but won't step down as an MP after being charged
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

    @iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.
    I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

    Soon .... soon

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Tomorrow is La Diada, the national day of Catalonia. To mark it over one million people are expected to form an unbroken human chain that will snake its way across the country in order to demand the right to an independence vote. Despite this the Spanish government will continue to say no. It's going to get unpleasant.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Heaths narrow loss in the first 74 election was the first single parliament govt since 1929.

    On the other hand, we also have the first coalition since the war also!

    Mikes case about 2010 LibDems switching to Labour has some validity, but largely depends where those switchers are. If they are in LibDem marginals they could hand seats to the Conservatives, or Eastleigh to UKIP. We need some Ashcroft type polls in marginal seats to see how the chips would fall. There is also the issue of turnout, I can see both Labour and LibDem 2010 voters sitting out 2015.
    david_herdson said:

    Alanbrooke - " The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term ..."

    Governments often improve their position at the election after coming to office. They did in 1955, 1966 and 1983. Wilson also did better in the second 1974 election, though they were very close together. In addition, although Blair lost a handful of seats in 2001, he still won a landslide.

    Against that, there's only Attlee's second election in 1950 (though he did win), and Heath's defeat (just) in 1974.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    edited September 2013
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group H
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    tim said:

    Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

    Yes tim, a strong candidate in all areas. He is one of my ten votes for MEP 2014.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Diversity

    A Boy Makes Anti-Muslim Comments In Front Of An American Soldier. The Soldier's Reply: Priceless.

    http://www.upworthy.com/a-boy-makes-anti-muslim-comments-in-front-of-an-american-soldier-the-soldiers-reply-priceless?g=2
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

    Nuttall's a good guy, but not sure a shaven-headed Scouser is the ideal match for genteel, conservative Clitheroe...

    Farage would be better, but too far from his home patch.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

    I'd expect them to have a female candidate if possible.

    It apparently boosted their polling with women when Diane James became the face of UKIP. (4m30s into video)

    http://youtu.be/xkqAFCQJ65s?t=4m30s
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2013
    Evans (on Sky) vows to "robustly defend" his innocence...

    Going to the back-benches to continue representing his constituents...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

    @iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.
    I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

    Soon .... soon

    How long has Scottish rugby been saying "soon"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    edited September 2013
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2013
    Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2013
    Clitheroe was a strange seat. It had one of the first Labour MPs from 1902, since the Liberals simply handed it to them on a plate. (The believed The Working Man should be represented by working men in Parliament)...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    RodCrosby said:

    Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

    Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
    It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

    England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    I have to admit, I was upset not a single Welshman rose to the bait I posted about Welsh Rugby last Friday
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

    Rex v Sussex Justices, ex parte McCarthy [1924] grounds I suppose

    "Not only must Justice be done...."

    You know the rest...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Rose to the bait?

    is that a mixed metaphor?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
    It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

    England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

    Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb :)

    "England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    corporeal said:

    JackW said:

    Scott_P said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

    Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

    @iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.
    I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

    Soon .... soon

    How long has Scottish rugby been saying "soon"?
    Welsh rugby has experienced a remarkable renaissance. They are arguably the 2nd (or 3rd) best team in the world, right now. Why not Scotland?
    Buy that man a drink .... a wee one mind you, a wee one.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

    Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?
    Aitken was not a Tory MP at the time of his criminal trial...

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Thanks for the link on the 125's.. particularly fond of that train, and will be very sad to see it go. Hopefully it will continue to serve the Penzance route given that electrification down that far seems a way off.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    tim said:

    Two reasons to go to Clitheroe

    http://www.dbyrne-finewines.co.uk/

    http://www.cowmans.co.uk/

    The weekly meat auction is also one of the biggest in Lancashire and very popular.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
    It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

    England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

    Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb :)

    "England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800
    Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,505
    Nigel Evans has apparently resigned as Deputy Speaker.

    If I’m not mistaken, the new Deputy Speaker will have to be from either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats in order to maintain parliamentary balance.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    RodCrosby said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

    Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?
    Aitken was not a Tory MP at the time of his criminal trial...

    Of course, I remember now, it was perjury rather than the actual Saudi dealings.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
    It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

    England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

    Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb :)

    "England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800
    Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

    Can't I do my time in GENSHEET instead? :)

    http://www.gensheet.co.uk/
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Evans has apparently resigned as Deputy Speaker.

    If I’m not mistaken, the new Deputy Speaker will have to be from either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats in order to maintain parliamentary balance.

    Correct. In principle. Not sure if this situation has ever arisen before though...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Strong. Decisive.

    SkyNews: TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Miliband blinks first in union stand-off" #skypapers http://t.co/x3yF4D2JRd
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    After all the other UN nations provide subsidised spare bedrooms for their poor don't they?
    tim said:

    Cue PB Tory Rage

    @suttonnick: Wednesday's Guardian front page - "Exclusive: Axe bedroom tax, says UN investigator" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/CddLnwcI6T

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:



    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    JackW said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

    England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

    I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

    No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

    We're on 16 points, leading group G
    Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
    and Poland on 13.

    So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

    Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

    Well, we're a point in front!
    No my mathematically deficient friend.

    If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
    If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

    That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

    IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!
    It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

    England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

    Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb :)

    "England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800
    Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

    Can't I do my time in GENSHEET instead? :)

    http://www.gensheet.co.uk/
    No .... another seven days for contempt !!

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    ****************************

    Some of you will remember 'URW', a legendary gambler who used to post on here regularly. I have just been given the sad news that he passed away on Saturday. He remained razor-sharp to the end; he will be much missed.

    RIP

    ****************************
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    tim said:

    @anotherdave

    That UKIP claim that their polling among women went from 28% to 46% in Eastleigh looks odd, the Ashcroft exit poll put them on 21%, 27% among men,.
    The Lib Dems had a massive lead among women as the embarrassing and imbecilic "local mother of four" campaign run by the Tories with the challenged candidate Maria Hutchings forced the female Tory vote down to 21% (31% among men)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-tables.pdf

    Much as we must be grateful for Ashcroft's poll - what you neglect to mention that these are tiny sample sizes and the female vote is within MOE of the male for Con.

    On a larger base, what may be a more useful guide:

    General Election vote
    Con: 76
    Lab: 60
    LibD: 81
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RichardNabavi said:

    ****************************

    Some of you will remember 'URW', a legendary gambler who used to post on here regularly. I have just been given the sad news that he passed away on Saturday. He remained razor-sharp to the end; he will be much missed.

    RIP

    ****************************

    Sad News. He was one of the regulars from the early days, but disappeared a couple of years ago...

    Can you share any more information about him?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,076
    @RichardN

    Very sad. He was an original. I liked him
This discussion has been closed.

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