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Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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Sunil_Prasannan

First

Sunil_Prasannan

tim said:

What, no IDS?

@SkyAnushka: PM & IDS on Universal Credit. We should not be "religious on timing" says PM, days after IDS staked his political rep on delivering on time

Fact: IDS never lost a GE as Tory leader!

RedRag1

FPT -

RedRag1 said:

Alanbrooke said:

RedRag1 said:

On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what the PB Hodges, PB Gideons and PB Tories say, as long as the 2010 Lib Dem switches stay where they are now and have been for three years, there will not be a Tory government, either on their own or in coalition and more than likely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.

Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.

Stark_Dawning

I must say, I was disappointed with Ed's effort at the TUC. I was expecting fireworks. Of course, Ed jumped the gun with Falkirk thing, accusing Unite of all sorts of electoral shenanigans. When those smears were proved baseless, Ed was left impotent and naked. I suppose he could have fought on regardless, but he's starting to look like a young man who doesn't like to cause a fuss and prefers nothing better than a nice cup of tea.

Theuniondivvie

tim said:

What, No Nigel Evans?

@ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

Will Preston Police Station be bringing charges?

PBModerator

tim said:

What, No Nigel Evans?

@ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

No speculation about Nigel Evans' guilt or innocence. Any posts on this topic will now require a link from a reputable UK news organisation

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Thanks to Mr. Corporeal, Mr. Bertie and Mr. Lilburne for their helpful responses on the previous thread. I suddenly realised I'd got a nice thane/thegn (probably the former) title but needed a lower one as well (the rest are all English and so easy).

Iesyth reminds me of Iestyn Harris [I think, a rugby player. Could be slightly wrong]. Might go for Gesydd.

Many thanks for answers to that slightly obscure question.

F1: Massa confirms he's leaving Ferrari:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24040973

AveryLP

FPT @Y0kel

Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

...

What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


Y0kel

The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.

MarkSenior

RedRag1 said:

FPT -

RedRag1 said:

Alanbrooke said:

RedRag1 said:

On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what the PB Hodges, PB Gideons and PB Tories say, as long as the 2010 Lib Dem switches stay where they are now and have been for three years, there will not be a Tory government, either on their own or in coalition and more than likely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.

Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.

The percentage of 2010 LD voters who tell the pollsters that they have switched to Labour is nowhere near 30 to 40 % . It is currently averaging 23% for ICM/Populus/Yougov .

AveryLP

What know tim?

Nothing.

Alanbrooke

RedRag1 said:

FPT -

RedRag1 said:

Alanbrooke said:

RedRag1 said:

On Topic - Mr Smithson - I have been saying it for months and months.No matter what theely a Labour one. Maybe the Tory Party need another dozen or so election strategists?

http://www.redrag1.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/red-rag-lynton-grant-and-messina-just.html

....."as long as" ...... and from the header of this thread "If". That's the bet, that things don't change and people are not fickle.

Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%. In reality I hope they keep playing the Ed is crap card, it just isn't budging them no matter how loud they shout it and how many people in the right wing press write it. One day, hopefully some time in July 2015 one of their many strategist will surely spot it.

I can't quite see how you work that out by all measures 2012 was a good year for Miliband and a bad one for Cameron. 2013 has been a poor one for Miliband which has seen his league squeezed but not eliminated. Agaist this HMG has been operating with a moribund economy and some pretty poor communications. Looking in to 2014 I would anticipate the economy picking up and both sides having to up their political game. In such circumstances polls will start to thaw and as we draw nearer to the Ge opinions will start to mean something.
At the moment both sides are telling themselves that this time it is different, but history has a habit of repeating itself. The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term and that an opposition needs a big lead in mid term to win an election. To me a HP is still the likely outcome and Nick Clegg is the main man.

Stark_Dawning

MarkSenior said:

The percentage of 2010 LD voters who tell the pollsters that they have switched to Labour is nowhere near 30 to 40 % . It is currently averaging 23% for ICM/Populus/Yougov .

Really? That's interesting. And from that 23% you can probably deduct 13% for the respondents who use polls to comment on the political narrative, rather than as confession of voting intention. Remove 7% for the anti-Iraq SWP entryists and you get only 3% Lib-to-Lab switchers. That's nothing. Give the Lib Dems a further boost because they can now claim experience of governing and they will probably increase their share in 2015.

Y0kel

AveryLP said:

FPT @Y0kel

Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

...

What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


Y0kel

The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.

As per my post, my understanding is that the Syrian's themselves be looking at notifying the locations of the weaponry with what I assume is a remote observation scheme. Whether that proves enough, we'll see.

RedRag1

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

Andy_JS

Just uploaded:

Documentary on Islington Council, from March or April 1983:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRWvcdyQITs&amp

AveryLP

RedRag1 said:

.....do I need to go on?

No, RedRag.

You may now retire to bed.

Good night, and may flights of angels sing thee to thy sleep.

corporeal

Edit

corporeal

FPT

RedRag1 said:

RedRag1 said:
» show previous quotes
Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

TheScreamingEagles

RedRag1 said:

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

Yes, YouGov excludes the don't knows and refused to says.

If you add up the figures for 2010 Lib Dems, plus the refused to says/dont knows, on this morning's yougov it comes to 125%

So that 34 is actually out of 125 as a percentage, less than 30% (27.2% actually)

MrJones

Note the chemical weapons are stored in only two locations when the regime-changers want to pretend Hague's Heart-Eaters couldn't have got hold of them but twenty to thirty locations when it comes to bombing.

Funny that.

MikeK

Y0kel said:

AveryLP said:

FPT @Y0kel

Syria: Not the gaffe you think.

In the last 24 hours, much comment has focussed on the apparent gaffe by John Kerry that left a door open for the Russians to drop their proposal to avoid a US strike on Syria.

...

What makes it a right mess is that the Assad government shifted them again in advance of a possible US strike. You are now looking at 20-30 sites at least. There is no way that these could be guarded adequately under an in-country supervision regime, so realistically they'd need gathered and moved.


Y0kel

The decommissioning of CW is likely to be more of a symbolic act than a watertight enforcement. The key outcome must be no further use of CW in the civil war, either by Assad or by third parties using his stocks.

This means that the allies can allow some 'cheating' at the edges on retention, provided it is hidden from view. We are likely to get statements such as; "it is impossible to guarantee or verify that every chemical weapon has been removed and destroyed given the current state of the conflict in Syria, What is important is that Syria is seen and believed to be acting in good faith".

There appears to a bit of jostling within the UNSC on who drafts the eventual resolution and its scope but this kind of dispute always presages real progress.

A key diplomatic goal for the US and its allies will be to use any UNSC resolution on CW as a platform for future negotiations to find a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. I don't think the US and Russia are divided on the principle that an orderly transition based on the Assad regime, if not Assad personally, is the most feasible starting point.

Resolving the CW issue should be the beginning not the end of a process towards a negotiated solution.

As per my post, my understanding is that the Syrian's themselves be looking at notifying the locations of the weaponry with what I assume is a remote observation scheme. Whether that proves enough, we'll see.

This is a mess of Obamas own making. Mark Mardell (BBC) says that this could bring down the Obama presidency, or at the most make him a lame duck for 3 long bloody years.

TheScreamingEagles

lucy manning ‏@lucymanning 1m
Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

RedRag1

corporeal said:

FPT

RedRag1 said:

RedRag1 said:
» show previous quotes
Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

Corpreal, I have given the figures for most of last week below, I could go on, but it would take too long. If you don't believe me check the Yougov site, as they always have the figures in their full results under the 2010 vote column. See below:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf

Andy_JS

Keir Starmer has decided to charge Nigel Evans:

http://blog.cps.gov.uk/2013/09/statement-from-the-director-of-public-prosecutions-keir-starmer-qc-on-the-case-of-mr-nigel-evans-mp.html

Charges:

• One count of indecent assault on a man, dating between 1 January 2002 and 1 January 2004, contrary to Section 15 Sexual Offences Act 1956

• One count of indecent assault on a man, dating between 1 January 2003 and 1 January 2004, contrary to Section 15 Sexual Offences Act 1956

• One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2009 and 1 January 2010, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

• One count of sexual assault on a man, between 30 June 2009 and 1 August 2009, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

• One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2011, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

• One count of sexual assault on a man, between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2012, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

• Once count of rape of a man, between 29 March 2013 and 1 April 2013, contrary to Section 1 Sexual Offences Act 2003

• One count of sexual assault on a man, between 29 March 2013 and 1 April 2013, contrary to Section 3 Sexual Offences Act 2003

MikeK

tim said:

What, No Nigel Evans?

@ArifBBC: It is now about 12 hours since Nigel Evans entered Preston police station.

Breaking::::::::
Nigel Evans charged of numerous sexual offences (BBC)

corporeal

RedRag1 said:

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

Mr RedRag, I think you're reading the tables incorrectly.

According the YouGov poll completed 5th-6th of September of the Sunday Times (i.e. the Friday one you refer to), in the headline voting intention of the LD2010 vote it lists 31% voting for Labour after excluding Wouldn't Vote and Don't knows.

Sunil_Prasannan

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

JohnLilburne

RedRag1 said:

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

No, but I think you need to demonstrate how you calculated those figures.

corporeal

RedRag1 said:

corporeal said:

FPT

RedRag1 said:

RedRag1 said:
» show previous quotes
Mr Brooke - The problem for the Tories is they have been playing the Ed is crap line for over two years but the percentage of 2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour has stayed between 30-40%.

Are you sure, that number sounds high? Off the top of my head I'd have reckoned it somewhere in the 20s (ICM is what I normally use).

Corpreal, I have given the figures for most of last week below, I could go on, but it would take too long. If you don't believe me check the Yougov site, as they always have the figures in their full results under the 2010 vote column. See below:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf

Checking this one (the Thursday- 37% one you referred to in your initial post) as it says under the sub-title "Headline Voting Intentions" excluding Don't Knows and Wouldn't Votes

RedRag1

JohnLilburne said:

RedRag1 said:

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

No, but I think you need to demonstrate how you calculated those figures.

I have calculated them from using the figures given by the people who said they voted Lib Dem in 2010 on the Yougov website (excluding don't knows/wouldn't vote)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/khzjew55hw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040913.pdf

MarkSenior

RedRag1 said:

Mark Senior - I would go and check your facts. Today's Yougov showed 34% and that was with a lower 5% lead. Sunday it was 31%, Friday it was 31% and Thursday it was 37%.....do I need to go on?

TSE has shown where your calculations are in error , similarly with ICM and Populus you must use the figures in Table 2 and not Table 3 .

corporeal

TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.

GeoffM

20. God Save The Queen - Give Northern Ireland its own soccer anthem

How about the cheeseburger song? I used to have as my ringtone last year when we had an Irish Republican working employed in the office.

AveryLP

tim said:

Ribble Valley By Election?

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

A by election is not inevitable.

Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

RedRag1

ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

TheScreamingEagles

corporeal said:

TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.

You'd be impressed, I posted that post, whilst talking to OGH on the phone and watching the football.

RedRag1

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Ribble Valley By Election?

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

A by election is not inevitable.

Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

Whilst everyone is innocent until proven guilty, it would hang around his party like a stale fart in a lift.

TheScreamingEagles

RedRag1 said:

ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

So your figures are wrong, as you're excluding some of the 2010 Lib Dem figures

corporeal

TheScreamingEagles said:

corporeal said:

TSE beat me to it, ninja-ing git.

You'd be impressed, I posted that post, whilst talking OGH and watching the football.

I am impressed, I'd have thought England in a bore draw to Ukraine would've put anyone into a coma.

david_herdson

Alanbrooke - " The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term ..."

Governments often improve their position at the election after coming to office. They did in 1955, 1966 and 1983. Wilson also did better in the second 1974 election, though they were very close together. In addition, although Blair lost a handful of seats in 2001, he still won a landslide.

Against that, there's only Attlee's second election in 1950 (though he did win), and Heath's defeat (just) in 1974.

MarkSenior

RedRag1 said:

ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

But you cannot exclude the DK and WNV if you are calculating the percentage of 2010 LD voters who have switched to Labour because that substantial ( in this case ) group have NOT switched to Labour .

Pulpstar

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Well lets hope we don't draw. England completely played for the draw tonight...

corporeal

RedRag1 said:

ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

Well if you'd said at the start "30-40% of the LD2010 vote, excluding those who won't vote or don't know how they'll vote" then it'd have been accurate and not drawn objections.

JohnLilburne

GeoffM said:

20. God Save The Queen - Give Northern Ireland its own soccer anthem

How about the cheeseburger song? I used to have as my ringtone last year when we had an Irish Republican working employed in the office.

Charming.

MikeK

Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?

TheScreamingEagles

I'd remind posters that today is a very good example of not jumping the gun, just because someone has been charged it doesn't mean they are guilty.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10299456/Coronation-Street-actor-Michael-Le-Vell-not-guilty-of-child-sex-charges.html

AveryLP

RedRag1 said:

AveryLP said:

tim said:

Ribble Valley By Election?

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans charged with 8 sexual offences tonight

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans MP charged with 2 indecent assaults, 5 sexual assaults & 1 rape against 7 victims.

A by election is not inevitable.

Trial is unlikely to be until late 2014 so even if it resulted in Evans having to resign it could fall within six months of the General Election with the seat left unfilled until then.

I guess it all depends how Evans responds to the charges.

Whilst everyone is innocent until proven guilty, it would hang around his party like a stale fart in a lift.

As you said, RedRag, defendants are presumed innocent until proved guilty.

Or as the DPP has said:

“Can I remind all concerned that criminal proceedings are now active. All defendants have the right to a fair trial and it is very important that nothing is said, or reported, which could prejudice this trial.”

corporeal

MikeK said:

Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?

Of the Conservative party? Yes they can chuck him out anytime they like. Of parliament only if convicted, sentenced, etc.

RedRag1

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'd remind posters that today is a very good example of not jumping the gun, just because someone has been charged it doesn't mean they are guilty.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10299456/Coronation-Street-actor-Michael-Le-Vell-not-guilty-of-child-sex-charges.html

You beat me to it, the press pack hatchet job on him in the last couple of weeks has been nothing short of despicable. Because of it many people will still have misgivings about him even though he is innocent, which is why I mentioned the stale fart in a lift about Evans.

Y0kel

Evans has resigned

TheScreamingEagles

Y0kel said:

Evans has resigned

As Deputy Speaker

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

AveryLP

Y0kel said:

Evans has resigned

As deputy speaker.

Not heard that it is as an MP.

Y0kel

Yes.

Surely a slippery slope though?

RedRag1

corporeal said:

RedRag1 said:

ATSE/Corpreal/Senior yes I know it excludes don't knows and would vote.

Well if you'd said at the start "30-40% of the LD2010 vote, excluding those who won't vote or don't know how they'll vote" then it'd have been accurate and not drawn objections.

From now on I will add on that line.

Sunil_Prasannan

BBC article re. Evans' resignation:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24042797

AveryLP

Y0kel said:

Yes.

Surely a slippery slope though?

I guess it depends how he pleads.

Pulpstar

MikeK said:

Nigel Evans says he won't resign. Can he be forced out?

Oh Come on Nigel. Don't be a spoilsport - we want a by election !

Scott_P

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

@iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.

Scott_P

@lucymanning: Nigel Evans resigns as Dep Commons Speaker, won't sit as a Tory MP, but won't step down as an MP after being charged

Sunil_Prasannan

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

JackW

Scott_P said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

@iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.

I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

Soon .... soon

SouthamObserver

Tomorrow is La Diada, the national day of Catalonia. To mark it over one million people are expected to form an unbroken human chain that will snake its way across the country in order to demand the right to an independence vote. Despite this the Spanish government will continue to say no. It's going to get unpleasant.

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

foxinsoxuk

Heaths narrow loss in the first 74 election was the first single parliament govt since 1929.

On the other hand, we also have the first coalition since the war also!

Mikes case about 2010 LibDems switching to Labour has some validity, but largely depends where those switchers are. If they are in LibDem marginals they could hand seats to the Conservatives, or Eastleigh to UKIP. We need some Ashcroft type polls in marginal seats to see how the chips would fall. There is also the issue of turnout, I can see both Labour and LibDem 2010 voters sitting out 2015.

david_herdson said:

Alanbrooke - " The two big constants say that a government doesn't often up its support in a second term ..."

Governments often improve their position at the election after coming to office. They did in 1955, 1966 and 1983. Wilson also did better in the second 1974 election, though they were very close together. In addition, although Blair lost a handful of seats in 2001, he still won a landslide.

Against that, there's only Attlee's second election in 1950 (though he did win), and Heath's defeat (just) in 1974.

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group H
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

MikeK

tim said:

Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

Yes tim, a strong candidate in all areas. He is one of my ten votes for MEP 2014.

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

Tykejohnno

Diversity

A Boy Makes Anti-Muslim Comments In Front Of An American Soldier. The Soldier's Reply: Priceless.

http://www.upworthy.com/a-boy-makes-anti-muslim-comments-in-front-of-an-american-soldier-the-soldiers-reply-priceless?g=2

RodCrosby

tim said:

Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

Nuttall's a good guy, but not sure a shaven-headed Scouser is the ideal match for genteel, conservative Clitheroe...

Farage would be better, but too far from his home patch.

anotherDave

tim said:

Wouldn't surprise me if UKiP line this guy up, just in case

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nuttall

I'd expect them to have a female candidate if possible.

It apparently boosted their polling with women when Diane James became the face of UKIP. (4m30s into video)

http://youtu.be/xkqAFCQJ65s?t=4m30s

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

RodCrosby

Evans (on Sky) vows to "robustly defend" his innocence...

Going to the back-benches to continue representing his constituents...

corporeal

JackW said:

Scott_P said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

@iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.

I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

Soon .... soon

How long has Scottish rugby been saying "soon"?

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

RodCrosby

Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

RodCrosby

Clitheroe was a strange seat. It had one of the first Labour MPs from 1902, since the Liberals simply handed it to them on a plate. (The believed The Working Man should be represented by working men in Parliament)...

Sunil_Prasannan

RodCrosby said:

Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

TheScreamingEagles

I have to admit, I was upset not a single Welshman rose to the bait I posted about Welsh Rugby last Friday

RodCrosby

RodCrosby said:

Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

Rex v Sussex Justices, ex parte McCarthy [1924] grounds I suppose

"Not only must Justice be done...."

You know the rest...

TheScreamingEagles

Rose to the bait?

is that a mixed metaphor?

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb

"England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800

JackW

SeanT said:

corporeal said:

JackW said:

Scott_P said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ukraine v. England 0-0 final score

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Macedonia at home next month.

Er wot no Ukraine ?!?

@iainmartin1: "@chrisdeerin: Scotland won tonight so we're the best British team" Yes, that settles it once and for all.

I'd rather we were the finest rugby union team in the British Isles !! ....

Soon .... soon

How long has Scottish rugby been saying "soon"?

Welsh rugby has experienced a remarkable renaissance. They are arguably the 2nd (or 3rd) best team in the world, right now. Why not Scotland?

Buy that man a drink .... a wee one mind you, a wee one.

RodCrosby

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?

Aitken was not a Tory MP at the time of his criminal trial...

RobD

Thanks for the link on the 125's.. particularly fond of that train, and will be very sad to see it go. Hopefully it will continue to serve the Penzance route given that electrification down that far seems a way off.

RedRag1

tim said:

Two reasons to go to Clitheroe

http://www.dbyrne-finewines.co.uk/

http://www.cowmans.co.uk/

The weekly meat auction is also one of the biggest in Lancashire and very popular.

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb

"England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800

Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

Andy_JS

Nigel Evans has apparently resigned as Deputy Speaker.

If I’m not mistaken, the new Deputy Speaker will have to be from either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats in order to maintain parliamentary balance.

Sunil_Prasannan

RodCrosby said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RodCrosby said:

Apparently the Attorney-General cannot oversee the prosecution, since Evans is a Tory MP...

Who oversaw Jonathan Aitken's?

Aitken was not a Tory MP at the time of his criminal trial...

Of course, I remember now, it was perjury rather than the actual Saudi dealings.

Sunil_Prasannan

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb

"England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800

Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

Can't I do my time in GENSHEET instead?

http://www.gensheet.co.uk/

RodCrosby

Andy_JS said:

Nigel Evans has apparently resigned as Deputy Speaker.

If I’m not mistaken, the new Deputy Speaker will have to be from either the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats in order to maintain parliamentary balance.

Correct. In principle. Not sure if this situation has ever arisen before though...

Scott_P

Strong. Decisive.

SkyNews: TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Miliband blinks first in union stand-off" #skypapers http://t.co/x3yF4D2JRd

foxinsoxuk

After all the other UN nations provide subsidised spare bedrooms for their poor don't they?

tim said:

Cue PB Tory Rage

@suttonnick: Wednesday's Guardian front page - "Exclusive: Axe bedroom tax, says UN investigator" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers http://t.co/CddLnwcI6T

JackW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JackW said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Did I say Macedonia? Ooops I meant Montenegro!

England will definitely qualify for Brazil World Cup if we beat Montenegro at home next month.

I think you might have overlooked Ukraine .... a bit like you did for the last 90 minutes.

No sorry there's also Poland at home, our last match.

We're on 16 points, leading group G
Then Montenegro and Ukraine each on 15
and Poland on 13.

So if we beat Montenegro and draw with Poland, we should make it.

Er and if Ukraine win their last games !!

Well, we're a point in front!

No my mathematically deficient friend.

If as you say England beat Montenegro and draw with Poland = 20 points.
If as I say Ukraine win their last two games = 21 points

That's 50 guineas please for the sums lessons !!

IF, If Ukraine win their last two, M'Lud!!!

It's all "IF" Sunil but you earlier contention that England qualify if they beat Montenegro next month was not accurate.

England have to at least equal Ukraine's and Montenegro's points total from their last two matches to be certain to qualify.

Apologies, M'Lud! I feel I must resort to quoting that august organisation, the Beeb

"England now have their fate in their own hands as they know victory in their final two Wembley qualifiers against Montenegro and Poland in October will guarantee automatic qualification."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24002800

Ignorance is no excuse .... seven days in ConHome .... take the prisoner down ....

Can't I do my time in GENSHEET instead?

http://www.gensheet.co.uk/

No .... another seven days for contempt !!

RichardNabavi

****************************

Some of you will remember 'URW', a legendary gambler who used to post on here regularly. I have just been given the sad news that he passed away on Saturday. He remained razor-sharp to the end; he will be much missed.

RIP

****************************

CarlottaVance

tim said:

@anotherdave

That UKIP claim that their polling among women went from 28% to 46% in Eastleigh looks odd, the Ashcroft exit poll put them on 21%, 27% among men,.
The Lib Dems had a massive lead among women as the embarrassing and imbecilic "local mother of four" campaign run by the Tories with the challenged candidate Maria Hutchings forced the female Tory vote down to 21% (31% among men)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-tables.pdf

Much as we must be grateful for Ashcroft's poll - what you neglect to mention that these are tiny sample sizes and the female vote is within MOE of the male for Con.

On a larger base, what may be a more useful guide:

General Election vote
Con: 76
Lab: 60
LibD: 81

RodCrosby

RichardNabavi said:

****************************

Some of you will remember 'URW', a legendary gambler who used to post on here regularly. I have just been given the sad news that he passed away on Saturday. He remained razor-sharp to the end; he will be much missed.

RIP

****************************

Sad News. He was one of the regulars from the early days, but disappeared a couple of years ago...

Can you share any more information about him?

Roger

@RichardN

Very sad. He was an original. I liked him