politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The gloves come off in the Tory race
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The gloves come off in the Tory race
“..From the minute Michael Gove came on board with Boris’s leadership campaign, things started to go wrong. There was a leak a day in the press, starting with the camera crews at Boris’s house in Oxfordshire on the first day and ending with the infamous email from Sarah Vine, Michael’s wife, “accidentally” finding its way to the papers.
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#ToxicTories0
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First in May but not in Gove... Or would have been but got "discussion ID required "
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#Labourites4Gove0
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Fooking love it0
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I also think this is very damaging for the overrated Mrs Leadsom, almost as bad as her triggering article 50 on the day she becomes PM
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7497166204031795200 -
Makes a change from Dave drinking badly poured Guinness, and leaving his daughter alone in a pub.0
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I think a lot of Tory MPs aren't very well disposed to the prospect of Mrs Vine-Gove-Macbeth being in Number 100
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Happy camper leavers... hard to believe some say a few of them are headbangers.
Look at 'no way may ' Mensch and even worse Simon Richards ... vitriolic vs remain traitors and one eyed for their preferred Brexiter. Can't wait to end this saga and get back to laughing at Ronaldo..0 -
Con Home and Guido have both just added Philip Hammond to the list of May supporters.0
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I am a bit surprised that this hatchet job is actually even needed. Gove is already an also ran.
I think it is more inspired by revenge. After all, revenge is very sweet.0 -
Leadsom was fine in the debates but all I recall her saying was her being a mother and wanting to take back control to nearly every question. The "that would be an ecumenical matter" oratory. If she wants farage involved then that's a definite red line.0
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/philip-hammond-the-country-needs-theresa-may-and-a-good-dose-of/MikeL said:Con Home and Guido have both just added Philip Hammond to the list of May supporters.
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Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
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It is win-win for UKIP, if they get Leadsom as Tory leader and PM they have as much control over the Tories as Momentum do over Labour and Farage may even get a safe seat and a Cabinet post. If May becomes Tory leader and PM and agrees EEA they potentially have half the Leave vote to draw into their campTheScreamingEagles said:I also think this is very damaging for the overrated Mrs Leadsom, almost as bad as her triggering article 50 on the day she becomes PM
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7497166204031795200 -
TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/jul/03/parliament-must-decide-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers
Good stuff.
"Their initiative relies upon the ambiguous wording of article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which sets out how states could leave the EU. The first clause declares: “Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
One of the grounds of a likely challenge to the referendum is that it is merely advisory and the royal prerogative cannot be used to undermine parliamentary statute."0 -
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:0 -
It won't stop the BBC's continuing efforts to find regretful leavers.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.
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Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.0 -
BBC using Tony Blair for the brexit story today - lolglw said:
It won't stop the BBC's continuing efforts to find regretful leavers.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36698055
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Not more tedious anti-BBC crap.glw said:
It won't stop the BBC's continuing efforts to find regretful leavers.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.
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The poll is clear and any further delay on Brexit needs to be put aside. Article 50 needs triggered immediately and its time for the Tories to step aside and let May trigger the Brexit as the voters have decided. I voted Remain but I lost and it's time for the winners to have their choice carried out.glw said:
It won't stop the BBC's continuing efforts to find regretful leavers.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.
The current delay is an affront to democracy.0 -
Mind you since the 2015 election the biggest gainers are the Scottish Tories (up 4%), the SNP are unchanged, Labour down 6% and the LDs down 2.5%Lowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.0 -
A journalist who likes gossip and drink. I'm shocked...0
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Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.0
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Something wrong with your arithmetic.HYUFD said:
Mind you since the 2015 election the biggest gainers are the Scottish Tories (up 4%), the SNP are unchanged, Labour down 6% and the LDs down 2.5%Lowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
True in theory but not in practice.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
Power is the araldite of politics.AlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
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Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...0 -
The UK has voted and voted out. There is no valid reason to resist the losers moaning. It is time to trigger Article 50.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.0 -
Of course a referendum is going to divide people. I don't know why that's surprising. Also, it would be a bit odd IMO if more than a handful of people had changed their mind just a few days after the referendum. It would be more interesting to see if many people have changed their minds in 6 or 12 months' time.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...0 -
If that's the excuse of backtracking on brexit,we are living in dangerous times.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
Probably the reason why a May win would be the best for the party. Although there is the Remain-backing issue, she is more of a unifier than the others, particularly if she puts a strong leaver in the driving seat of the Brexit negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
Doesn't mean that this will completely eliminate the problem, but I can't see any of the others taking the wider party with them. Gove would be undermined at every turn, I don't think Crabb or Fox enjoy any real 'broad church support'. The stories about a Leadsom-Farage tie-up, whatever the truth, cast doubt on party unity were she to get it.
It really does look like the May option is the safest.0 -
Seems that is going to be the norm for a long time to come. However the last thing the Conservatives need to do is fall out and trigger an election where they would probably lose their majority to a majority pro EU HOC and House of Lords. In my opinion leaving would fall and it would be an enormous affront to democracyAlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
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And we are leaving the EU. End of.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
Well following that logic had the vote been to remain it was only advisory and as such we would have left anyway.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764
Somehow I don't think so.......0 -
Only if it is legal otherwise the whole process could get bogged down in the courtsLowlander said:
The UK has voted and voted out. There is no valid reason to resist the losers moaning. It is time to trigger Article 50.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.0 -
Perhaps they and Labour could attend group therapy and Counselling sessions.AlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
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Where? Last May in Scotland the SNP got 50%, Labour 24%, the Tories 15% and the LDs 7.5%surbiton said:
Something wrong with your arithmetic.HYUFD said:
Mind you since the 2015 election the biggest gainers are the Scottish Tories (up 4%), the SNP are unchanged, Labour down 6% and the LDs down 2.5%Lowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
HarlodO will be up soon to prove its wrong , kevin will have a graph on itLowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
Yes I can but it depends on how comprehensive a plan is adopted, its speed in implementation and the discipline in its execution. An early first sign will be how much the Cabinet attendance numbers are reduced. A good Leader would cut it by at least 10%.AlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
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Michael Gove always looks like a vaguely surprised meerkat with odd looking ears.0
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All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.0
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Eh? Cameron would have stayed in if the vote was Remain.Moses_ said:
Well following that logic had the vote been to remain it was only advisory and as such we would have left anyway.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764
Somehow I don't think so.......0 -
We'll see. Plenty of water has yet to flow.MP_SE said:
And we are leaving the EU. End of.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-5079907640 -
The 48% led valiantly by the fearsome Tim Farron, the most dangerous Tim in history!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/7463349017466634240 -
So you think the BBC would have phone-ins for regretful remainers if Remain had won? I disagree.MikeSmithson said:Not more tedious anti-BBC crap.
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He wontnunu said:All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.
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You do realise that we aren't out until an agreement is reached, or two years after article 50, whichever is first?Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
Yes and the EU made it clear they aren't going to talk to us till we trigger Article 50. The time is now. The UK needs to trigger Article 50 as the people voted then enter negociations with the EU.RobD said:
You do realise that we aren't out until an agreement is reached, or two years after article 50, whichever is first?Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
If Parliament votes for it, then fine. The referendum was advisory. We were repeatedly told by MacBeth Gove that what matters most was the purity of the sovereignty of Parliament. Well then - Brexiteers need to stand by that.Tykejohnno said:
If that's the excuse of backtracking on brexit,we are living in dangerous times.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-interview-peter-catterall-on-eu-brexit-2016-60 -
Add a few points to the Tories share for shy Tories and Scots Tories are clear second place with Labour in third. If this continues till the locals in 2017 Labours base will be finished and Labour majority governments a thing of the past ?Lowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
You are missing the point. No-one wants to do it. Cameron didn't. Boris didn't. Teresa won't. And even if they do it, there is means and an appetite to challenge it legally. And then appeal (repeatedly):Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.
http://www.mishcon.com/news/firm_news/article_50_process_on_brexit_faces_legal_challenge_to_ensure_parliamentary_involvement_07_2016#.V3lRaW3BuTM.facebook
I agree with you broadly. My country right or wrong, etc. We voted out, let's get on with it. But it isn't going to happen in a smooth manner, no matter what you say.0 -
It will not happen before the new cabinet on the 9th September and probably not this year, once legal challenges commence, which they will unfortunately.Lowlander said:
Yes and the EU made it clear they aren't going to talk to us till we trigger Article 50. The time is now. The UK needs to trigger Article 50 as the people voted then enter negociations with the EU.RobD said:
You do realise that we aren't out until an agreement is reached, or two years after article 50, whichever is first?Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
A democratic election succeeding another is an enormous affront to democracy?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that is going to be the norm for a long time to come. However the last thing the Conservatives need to do is fall out and trigger an election where they would probably lose their majority to a majority pro EU HOC and House of Lords. In my opinion leaving would fall and it would be an enormous affront to democracyAlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
0 -
I very much doubt we will be out in two years. Four to five is more realistic. It will be horrendously complicated with potential for lawyers to get involved at every stage. The article is untested and hence the two years is just there as a backstop; if progress is being made it isn't in our or their interest to impose an abrupt break after an arbitrary time period, and if both parties agree then the timescale is easily extended.RobD said:
You do realise that we aren't out until an agreement is reached, or two years after article 50, whichever is first?Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
Unless you plan to go straight for EFTA/EEA, then immediate triggering of Article 50 is going to do no good at all. You only get two years for negotiations, and if we waste the first half of that debating what it is we want, then you could be in serious trouble.Lowlander said:
The UK has voted and voted out. There is no valid reason to resist the losers moaning. It is time to trigger Article 50.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.0 -
Maybe Tim will seek to emulate 1906, the last time the Liberals received 48% of the vote or above!HYUFD said:
The 48% led valiantly by the fearsome Tim Farron, the most dangerous Tim in history!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/7463349017466634240 -
Anything that prevents us leaving the EU is an affront to democracy, and I voted remainnot_on_fire said:
A democratic election succeeding another is an enormous affront to democracy?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that is going to be the norm for a long time to come. However the last thing the Conservatives need to do is fall out and trigger an election where they would probably lose their majority to a majority pro EU HOC and House of Lords. In my opinion leaving would fall and it would be an enormous affront to democracyAlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
0 -
There are claims a highly critical piece about Ms May was pulled by the Torygraph.See Peter Reynolds,Tory activist for cannabis law reform, who has published it on his blog.
So,both Lord Rothermere and the Barclay Bros have declared,I've no doubt Murdoch will make the business decision to back her too.She's home and hosed with those who own the Tory party.I do not think she will get away with not calling an election,however,too many people still recall GB's similar coronation.0 -
About two-thirds of people expected the result to be Remain, and with Tory MPs it was probably closer to 90%. Not surprising they're not prepared for it.bookseller said:
You are missing the point. No-one wants to do it. Cameron didn't. Boris didn't. Teresa won't. And even if they do it, there is means and an appetite to challenge it legally. And then appeal (repeatedly):Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.
http://www.mishcon.com/news/firm_news/article_50_process_on_brexit_faces_legal_challenge_to_ensure_parliamentary_involvement_07_2016#.V3lRaW3BuTM.facebook
I agree with you broadly. My country right or wrong, etc. We voted out, let's get on with it. But it isn't going to happen in a smooth manner, no matter what you say.0 -
I stand by the result of the referendum so should parliament,that;s the right way round.rottenborough said:
If Parliament votes for it, then fine. The referendum was advisory. We were repeatedly told by MacBeth Gove that what matters most was the purity of the sovereignty of Parliament. Well then - Brexiteers need to stand by that.Tykejohnno said:
If that's the excuse of backtracking on brexit,we are living in dangerous times.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-interview-peter-catterall-on-eu-brexit-2016-6
0 -
If this article is even remotely true, then Michael Gove's political career must be considered over, certainly in terms of him ever again holding senior office.
That would be a shame as he possesses very considerable talent.0 -
It doesn't matter if politicians don't want to do it.bookseller said:You are missing the point. No-one wants to do it. Cameron didn't. Boris didn't. Teresa won't. And even if they do it, there is means and an appetite to challenge it legally. And then appeal (repeatedly):
http://www.mishcon.com/news/firm_news/article_50_process_on_brexit_faces_legal_challenge_to_ensure_parliamentary_involvement_07_2016#.V3lRaW3BuTM.facebook
I agree with you broadly. My country right or wrong, etc. We voted out, let's get on with it. But it isn't going to happen in a smooth manner, no matter what you say.
The UK voted and the UK voted out. The decision has been made and ever day that passes as a slap in the face of the democratic process. No-one asked the Tories to wait before becoming the government when over 50% of the UK electorate gave them a majority in 2015. The decision was made, the Tories became the government and started legislating.
This decision has been made, the UK voted out and out we must go.0 -
Not least because the sensible leavers recognise that our leverage is greater whilst we still have the article to trigger, we (i.e. our government) needs to decide what sort of Brexit it wants before they start, and we need to do our best to get some of the big issues discussed at least in principle with the key players before we get dragged into formal talks.bookseller said:
You are missing the point. No-one wants to do it. Cameron didn't. Boris didn't. Teresa won't. And even if they do it, there is means and an appetite to challenge it legally. And then appeal (repeatedly):Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.
http://www.mishcon.com/news/firm_news/article_50_process_on_brexit_faces_legal_challenge_to_ensure_parliamentary_involvement_07_2016#.V3lRaW3BuTM.facebook
I agree with you broadly. My country right or wrong, etc. We voted out, let's get on with it. But it isn't going to happen in a smooth manner, no matter what you say.0 -
Only if Parliament makes that decision.Lowlander said:
There is no ambiguity or confusion. The UK voted out and out we must go, sooner not later. I voted Remain but I accept the result and nowt Article 50 needs triggered immediately. It serves no-one's benefit delaying things.bookseller said:
Blimey. And slightly more people who voted 'Remain' now think Leave was right. We truly are a broken and divided nation. For all the fact that she's a grown-up, I can't see Teresa May being the 'bringing comfort where there is sorrow [sic]' type.Tykejohnno said:
It does.glw said:
Well it's a poll, so take it with a pinch of salt, but that rather knocks on the head the idea that it is leavers that are regretting their decision.Tykejohnno said:
I appreciate it's an hour of your life you won't get back, but take a look at the comments after the Nick Clegg 'We need a GE before Article 50' piece in the Guardian. Everyone has an opinion on the legality of how and when we trigger article 50, due to the ambiguity of the wording in the treaty ('Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.'). The constitutional legal case is muddy to say the least in terms of who triggers Article 50 and why. If UKIP-trojan Leadsom takes over in Number 10 and triggers it, expect legal challenges aplenty and this dragging on for a good while yet.
Good time to be a constitutional lawyer I guess...
There was no option on the ballot paper for "out once the Tories have a new leader" or "out once Labour is a coherent party" or "out once we have retained freedom of movement via EEA". There was one choice. In or out and the UK voted out. Now out we must go.0 -
Provided Scotland is still in the UK by then, though Blair managed 3 majorities even without Scotlandnunu said:
Add a few points to the Tories share for shy Tories and Scots Tories are clear second place with Labour in third. If this continues till the locals in 2017 Labours base will be finished and Labour majority governments a thing of the past ?Lowlander said:
Scotland appears to know who is on their side.scotslass said:Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
This from Scotland Goes Pop an excellent site. Looks like sunset for Labour and another sunrise for our Nicola.0 -
He will no doubt try, more likely he emulates the 4.8% they are heading for in Scotland!numbertwelve said:
Maybe Tim will seek to emulate 1906, the last time the Liberals received 48% of the vote or above!HYUFD said:
The 48% led valiantly by the fearsome Tim Farron, the most dangerous Tim in history!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It may not be as simple as we would like with legal challenges, large scale demonstrations, and general dis-order. It is for those reasons a Brexiteer should not be PM as cool heads are needed to get us through the enormous resistance that will come from the 48%.GIN1138 said:Tykejohnno said:
Not much sign of Regrexit there,,,, If the government doesn't get on with Brexit those LEAVE voters will be switching en-masse to UKIP in 2020, IMO.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/7463349017466634240 -
Well said Big G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anything that prevents us leaving the EU is an affront to democracy, and I voted remainnot_on_fire said:
A democratic election succeeding another is an enormous affront to democracy?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that is going to be the norm for a long time to come. However the last thing the Conservatives need to do is fall out and trigger an election where they would probably lose their majority to a majority pro EU HOC and House of Lords. In my opinion leaving would fall and it would be an enormous affront to democracyAlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
0 -
You need unanimity to extend the talks. One of the 27 might be pissed off with the UK for some reason and demand concessions in return for an extension.IanB2 said:
I very much doubt we will be out in two years. Four to five is more realistic. It will be horrendously complicated with potential for lawyers to get involved at every stage. The article is untested and hence the two years is just there as a backstop; if progress is being made it isn't in our or their interest to impose an abrupt break after an arbitrary time period, and if both parties agree then the timescale is easily extended.
If we fall out on day 730, and go straight to WTO tariffs, it will do terrible damage to the UK economy. Even worse, because all our trade negotiators will have been working on the EU deal, we won't have anything else signed. We'll lose all the FTAs that the EU has signed with other countries. We'll be WTO with everyone.
But the real damage happens before then: the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. For three decades, we've been the number one location for inward investment in Europe (although Spain has caught up a lot in the last three years). We're not going to be number one in the next two years.0 -
The RP can be used to launch Trident. That may well undermine parliamentary statute (along with everything else if it lands on Mr Putin's dacha).surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/jul/03/parliament-must-decide-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers
.. the royal prerogative cannot be used to undermine parliamentary statute."0 -
I wish it was as simple as I want out, but I fear it will not be straight forwardLowlander said:
It doesn't matter if politicians don't want to do it.bookseller said:You are missing the point. No-one wants to do it. Cameron didn't. Boris didn't. Teresa won't. And even if they do it, there is means and an appetite to challenge it legally. And then appeal (repeatedly):
http://www.mishcon.com/news/firm_news/article_50_process_on_brexit_faces_legal_challenge_to_ensure_parliamentary_involvement_07_2016#.V3lRaW3BuTM.facebook
I agree with you broadly. My country right or wrong, etc. We voted out, let's get on with it. But it isn't going to happen in a smooth manner, no matter what you say.
The UK voted and the UK voted out. The decision has been made and ever day that passes as a slap in the face of the democratic process. No-one asked the Tories to wait before becoming the government when over 50% of the UK electorate gave them a majority in 2015. The decision was made, the Tories became the government and started legislating.
This decision has been made, the UK voted out and out we must go.0 -
We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.0
-
The UK's historic strength derived from the rule of law, more than from democracy. In a curious way, if the result of an advisory referendum and the will of the PM could be thwarted in the courts it would show how strong our constitution is.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Anything that prevents us leaving the EU is an affront to democracy, and I voted remainnot_on_fire said:
A democratic election succeeding another is an enormous affront to democracy?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems that is going to be the norm for a long time to come. However the last thing the Conservatives need to do is fall out and trigger an election where they would probably lose their majority to a majority pro EU HOC and House of Lords. In my opinion leaving would fall and it would be an enormous affront to democracyAlastairMeeks said:Can anyone seeing the Conservatives kissing and making up after the dust settles? There are going to be multiple interlocking factions of seething unhappiness.
0 -
Entertain me for a minute let's just say he does, then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.
0 -
I don't disagree, but it is Parliament's right to stand by or not stand by.Tykejohnno said:
I stand by the result of the referendum so should parliament,that;s the right way round.rottenborough said:
If Parliament votes for it, then fine. The referendum was advisory. We were repeatedly told by MacBeth Gove that what matters most was the purity of the sovereignty of Parliament. Well then - Brexiteers need to stand by that.Tykejohnno said:
If that's the excuse of backtracking on brexit,we are living in dangerous times.rottenborough said:
Except we live in a Parliamentary democracy. The referendum was advisory. End of.Tykejohnno said:TONY PARSONS Don’t tell us that democracy only works if you win
Too many bad losers are objecting to democracy itself ... that is an incredibly dangerous game to play
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1380901/dont-tell-us-that-democracy-only-works-if-you-win/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-SunPolitics-_-20160703-_-Opinion/Columnists-_-507990764
http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-interview-peter-catterall-on-eu-brexit-2016-60 -
"Corbyn: if they want to challenge me, there will be a contest and I will be on the ballot"
Corbyn to outlast Cameron at 2.04 good value, I think. Should be 1.5. (Cameron to go before Corbyn, technically)0 -
The EU have no say in it - we decide and they can jump up and down as much as they likeParistonda said:We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.
0 -
At which point I suggest quiet prevarication every time Article 50 is demanded. As to European armies etc - we are still in the EU. We can put a large number of spanners in the works, if that is the game that is chosen to be played.Paristonda said:We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.
I voted remain - this is about negotiating a sensible deal.0 -
I wouldn't be surprised if a longer timescale were agreed (by everyone) at the outset, as part of the pre-conditions for the talks. Everyone knows it is uncharted and very complex waters.rcs1000 said:
You need unanimity to extend the talks. One of the 27 might be pissed off with the UK for some reason and demand concessions in return for an extension.IanB2 said:
I very much doubt we will be out in two years. Four to five is more realistic. It will be horrendously complicated with potential for lawyers to get involved at every stage. The article is untested and hence the two years is just there as a backstop; if progress is being made it isn't in our or their interest to impose an abrupt break after an arbitrary time period, and if both parties agree then the timescale is easily extended.
If we fall out on day 730, and go straight to WTO tariffs, it will do terrible damage to the UK economy. Even worse, because all our trade negotiators will have been working on the EU deal, we won't have anything else signed. We'll lose all the FTAs that the EU has signed with other countries. We'll be WTO with everyone.
But the real damage happens before then: the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. For three decades, we've been the number one location for inward investment in Europe (although Spain has caught up a lot in the last three years). We're not going to be number one in the next two years.0 -
It's a complete non-issue. If say Theresa May wanted to invoke Article 50 watch as all opposition evaporates into thin air.shiney2 said:
The RP can be used to launch Trident. That may well undermine parliamentary statute (along with everything else if it lands on Mr Putin's dacha).surbiton said:https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/jul/03/parliament-must-decide-whether-or-not-to-leave-the-eu-say-lawyers
.. the royal prerogative cannot be used to undermine parliamentary statute."0 -
He wontnunu said:
Entertain me for a minute let's just say he does, then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.
0 -
Somewhat naive I would suggest? I think we will find that they have rather a lot of cards they can play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have no say in it - we decide and they can jump up and down as much as they likeParistonda said:We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.
0 -
I find it hard to reconcile your realistic view of this with your advocacy of Leave, or at least voting leave against the position of the UK government.rcs1000 said:
You need unanimity to extend the talks. One of the 27 might be pissed off with the UK for some reason and demand concessions in return for an extension.IanB2 said:
I very much doubt we will be out in two years. Four to five is more realistic. It will be horrendously complicated with potential for lawyers to get involved at every stage. The article is untested and hence the two years is just there as a backstop; if progress is being made it isn't in our or their interest to impose an abrupt break after an arbitrary time period, and if both parties agree then the timescale is easily extended.
If we fall out on day 730, and go straight to WTO tariffs, it will do terrible damage to the UK economy. Even worse, because all our trade negotiators will have been working on the EU deal, we won't have anything else signed. We'll lose all the FTAs that the EU has signed with other countries. We'll be WTO with everyone.
But the real damage happens before then: the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. For three decades, we've been the number one location for inward investment in Europe (although Spain has caught up a lot in the last three years). We're not going to be number one in the next two years.
0 -
Just like Leave couldn't win, right?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:
Entertain me for a minute let's just say he does, then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.
0 -
Not naive - just the fact that it has been recognised by the CommisionIanB2 said:
Somewhat naive I would suggest? I think we will find that they have rather a lot of cards they can play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have no say in it - we decide and they can jump up and down as much as they likeParistonda said:We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.
0 -
At some point down the road, EU integration will violation the Austrian State Treaty of 1955. The EU will need our acquiescence to amend/change it......IanB2 said:
Somewhat naive I would suggest? I think we will find that they have rather a lot of cards they can play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU have no say in it - we decide and they can jump up and down as much as they likeParistonda said:We're now getting openly different messages from member states - Germany led bloc (includes northern and eastern states) urging caution and clearly hoping for ways to fudge/delay/change the result, and the French led bloc (including southern states and EU institutions) wanting us out ASAP. A large part of the EU therefore wants us gone, and so they will provoke us into triggering a50 if we don't soon - expect Belgian PMs to start talking about EU armies openly, further euro integration etc. It's for this reason that the wait and see a50 last remain hope strategy won't work. Opinion is only going to swing further away from the EU, not back towards it. Article 50 by Jan 17 and off the shelf EEA is our best and most likely option now. FoM will be fig leafed via benefit changes but no concessions from EU on that.
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Well the battery runs out yet again so it is off for a good night's rest.
I hope everyone sleeps well
l and am sure that this will go on and on and on and on ..........0 -
Leave was led by Boris who Gove has just knifednunu said:
Just like Leave couldn't win, right?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:
Entertain me for a minute let's just say he does, then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wontnunu said:All these tory MP's plotting against Gove, I have a question for them. What if he reaches the final two and the members vote for him as leader? What then? Tories will out do Labour in terms of disunity.
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