May has zero chance regardless of what Labour does as Tory members will only back a BREXITEER which means it will almost certainly be Boris or Gove who leads them. As for Labour their membership elected Watson as Deputy so he may have a good chance but McDonnell could beat him if a contest between those two goes to the membership
Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back as 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like the many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?
TSE- undoubtedly the cleverest line I have read in pbCOM in my 12 years of venturing onto this site. So, I can guess you are on the anyone but Boris group.
FWIW- I know that you threatened to leave the Tory Party- but you won't. Like me with Corbyn, you'll stick around. Loyalty to your political party is too hard to shake off.
Lastly, New Order weren't that great last night. I hate myself for this, but Adele was much better.
I'm very proud of that line.
As for your last line, I'll pretend you didn't say that
TSE, I don't know if you saw my comment on the previous thread. Congratulations on working the T-Empo classic into the thread header.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive.
Can only be extended with agreement of the EU though, right? Why would they ever do that?
You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment. I suppose they're pro-immigration (nannies, plumbers, cheap labour for big business) and want to wind down the NHS, so why now pretend otherwise? There's also the thought that if the WWC are peeved then the only thing that can happen is that they turn their backs on politics and just don't vote Labour. I think it's a dangerous strategy myself, but they obviously think it will work.
Unlike, say, the head of the remain campaign, who promised to stay on as PM and invoke article 50 the day after the referendum? Or the SNP, who promised that 2014 would settle independence "for a generation"? Or Corbyn, who spent the whole time in his career opposing the EU, then had a conversion? Or Brown, who promised us a referendum on the EU constitution, then showed it through without one? Something about the EU seems to turn politicians into chronic liars. Or rather, even further into chronic liars.
IDS has said that the new Tory Leader/PM should be a Leaver. That would be a mistake. If the economy goes into recession or slows significantly it will be blamed on Brexit, true or not. The Leader will lose authority and perhaps the next GE. Theresa May is the logical choice.
No way, Leave have to own this now, they cannot simply elect a Remainer and hope they get blamed if/when the economy goes tits up.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive. What I want our new government to look for is: -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.
We would be out of the CAP and CFP, out of the European Parliament and out of the hegemony of the CJE. We would continue to co-operate with the EU on areas of common interest such as security, pollution etc. We would pay a contribution to the EU, ideally somewhat less than half of what we pay at the moment for these market privileges.
I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
Im waiting to see what Boris next move is,
But yes the politicians in general are behaving like idiots and rather justifying the peoples recent decision not to trust them
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?
If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
My estimate is that about 400 constituencies voted Leave, and about 250 Remain.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
Who will employ Andrew Cooper?
The Labour party? He can always ask his old flat mate Da Fink for a reference or join his friend Osborne in the party of ex politicians. He may struggle to get a reference from Cameron. Cooper was of course the architect of the gay marriage idea which helped push out 1/3 of the Conservative membership. An idea that could have been implemented through a back bencher bill rather than a Govt one.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Yep he was very good.
It's a shame that we have to rely on a the last PM but one to be a statesman.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back as 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like the many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?
TSE- undoubtedly the cleverest line I have read in pbCOM in my 12 years of venturing onto this site. So, I can guess you are on the anyone but Boris group.
FWIW- I know that you threatened to leave the Tory Party- but you won't. Like me with Corbyn, you'll stick around. Loyalty to your political party is too hard to shake off.
Lastly, New Order weren't that great last night. I hate myself for this, but Adele was much better.
New Order were never ever good and Adele is little better
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
If we're out of the EU, or if the Conservative Party have a committed Leave leader, I would expect UKIP's support to fizzle.
I would too, I fully expected UKIP to dissolve and disappear. But I didn't count on Labour and the Lib Dems deciding to go "double or quits" on backing Remain. Who's going to take seats in places like Sunderland if Labour pledge to ignore the referendum result?
As I said earlier this week - in the North East where the Tories are not in a very strong second place the entire region will go UKIP...
My guess is that UKIP would win everywhere except North Tyneside, Darlington and Stockton (need to look at the 2015 results for a complete list). I'll do it later and put the spreadsheet up....
McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
They also weighted 10/10 likely to vote turnout for 18-24 year olds as 63%, turned out to be 36%.....
All the adjustments towards the end kept pushing the Leave vote down. I'd love to know why they thought they had to do this. It looked at the time, and definitely now that they couldn't accept what they were seeing.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Nope - any rally was technical and had fizzled away later in the day - sterling trades 24 hours Monday - Friday.
It was still up on the morning and longer term it will be fine, the UK's economic position does not depend on membership of the EU
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive. What I want our new government to look for is: -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.
How will we fill gaps in the market in areas dominated by self employed labour?
The structure of the market could easily be changed. For example they could become employees of UK registered companies who will offer them the job. There would have to be limits on the rights to draw on in work benefits too until minimum contributions have been made.
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
I can't believe Labour are doing this. Gives Boris and his team a few days when all the press are looking the other way, and also gives Boris the justification to tell Dave to go immediately in the National Interest.
Parliament is going to be a little like parliament was after the fall of France this week methinks.
Boris PM, government of national unity with the likes of Gisella as minister for Europe, Ian paisley Junior as education secretary, and maybe just maybe Frank Field as Welfare Secretary.
When is recess? Aren't there a couple of Bills to sort as well - the City Mayors?
tyson - you have a former Labour PM stressing the imperative of making sure we maintain jobs in the city. Whilst Corbyn seems to be a disaster amongst the public, the problem for the party is two-sided.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
The chance of bat-shit socialist Corbyn ever getting his hands on power are now receding - that should be good for the long-term prospects of this country.
You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment.........
I had not noticed any statement from a member of the Government on this. Could you please link to that or are you refering to people for LEAVE that are not actually in Cabinet or in a more junior role of Government?
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
No evidence at all for that. If anything there are precedents about 2nd referenda getting different results. Not going to happen though.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
Seriously, do the PB Leavers honestly believe the EU campaign was fought on the substantive issues. This is a serious question. Will at least one of them with half a brain cell please answer this?
McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
Good idea. My impression as to why they were wrong is that a) the oldie-youngster turnout difference appears to have stayed as large as ever, and b) the assumed class-based turnout difference did not.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive. What I want our new government to look for is: -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.
We would be out of the CAP and CFP, out of the European Parliament and out of the hegemony of the CJE. We would continue to co-operate with the EU on areas of common interest such as security, pollution etc. We would pay a contribution to the EU, ideally somewhat less than half of what we pay at the moment for these market privileges.
I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
They also weighted 10/10 likely to vote turnout for 18-24 year olds as 63%, turned out to be 36%.....
All the adjustments towards the end kept pushing the Leave vote down. I'd love to know why they thought they had to do this. It looked at the time, and definitely now that they couldn't accept what they were seeing.
Yes. Pollsters should accept the results they get, not adjust them in the direction they think ought to be the result.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment.........
I had not noticed any statement from a member of the Government on this. Could you please link to that or are you refering to people for LEAVE that are not actually in Cabinet or in a more junior role of Government?
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive.
Can only be extended with agreement of the EU though, right? Why would they ever do that?
Good day
Yes but I don't think we would want an extension either. We also need the sort of deal I outlined by Christmas this year, not in 2 years time.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
I can't believe the pathetic meltdown people are having over leaving the complete and utter political and economic failure of the EU. This is the Diana moment for all those in favour of a undemocratic bureaucracy.
Of course Britain leaving was inevitable anyway. The EU is going to become one nation eventually with an army, flag, anthem the lot and the British people would just never accept that.
On that latter point, I'm not sure the EU will ever be a single nation but for its project to work, it certainly needs a greater level of integration than the British people would feel confortable with (that point was probably passed at Maastricht or at least by Lisbon) and eventually more than the British political establishment could stomach, assuming they managed to potter on for another few years without listening to their voters.
I think Leave had the correct diagnosis, an incoherent and flawed prescription (not least they had too many doctors with too many opinions, but some of their certificates seemed to have been issued by the Online Totally Legitimate School of Medicine, Nuclear Physics and Astrology), and the correct long-run prognosis. At some point, Britain (at least most of it) didn't fit anymore and was off.
Remain's disconnect suggested they had the wrong diagnosis. Their prescription was also muddled - and in many ways just as implausible to implement - take Corbyn saying he wanted an EU that imposed higher social rights across Europe, Watson saying the EU should reconsider freedom of movement - did they think they could make this happen? Their long-term prognosis of Britain locked in uncomfortable semi-detachment while the core of the EU radically transforms itself wasn't particularly attractive and simply seemed to be leaving a bigger decision for later.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
I suspect the latter wont be known for decades to come. If we are all paupers in 2040, then yes.
Seriously, do the PB Leavers honestly believe the EU campaign was fought on the substantive issues. This is a serious question. Will at least one of them with half a brain cell please answer this?
Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?
If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
Serious question - everyone seems to be assuming that the big issue in the GE will be the position on the EU? Why? It's todays issue. But already decided, in principle at least. By the GE we may be past the point of no return. And, apart from the LibDems, who would want to fight the election on this? The biggest threat to the WWC/Labour/Leave people is a right-wing government, which surely should be the ground on which Labour must fight?
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
No evidence at all for that. If anything there are precedents about 2nd referenda getting different results. Not going to happen though.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
Gordon Brown has the best reputation of all C21 Prime Ministers.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
Gordon Brown has the best reputation of all C21 Prime Ministers.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
He oozes snake oil and smugness. I have yet to see a more dodgy looking/sounding character. For sure you would need to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
Where the hell is the govt today? Have they run away?
I get the impression Cameron is sulking and no one else currently has the authority to step up and do anything. He is after all still Prime Minister for the next 3 months.
Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back as 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like the many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?
TSE- undoubtedly the cleverest line I have read in pbCOM in my 12 years of venturing onto this site. So, I can guess you are on the anyone but Boris group.
FWIW- I know that you threatened to leave the Tory Party- but you won't. Like me with Corbyn, you'll stick around. Loyalty to your political party is too hard to shake off.
Lastly, New Order weren't that great last night. I hate myself for this, but Adele was much better.
I'm very proud of that line.
As for your last line, I'll pretend you didn't say that
TSE, I don't know if you saw my comment on the previous thread. Congratulations on working the T-Empo classic into the thread header.
It was more a reference to Richard Nixon, but I'll take any plaudits
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
If we're out of the EU, or if the Conservative Party have a committed Leave leader, I would expect UKIP's support to fizzle.
I would too, I fully expected UKIP to dissolve and disappear. But I didn't count on Labour and the Lib Dems deciding to go "double or quits" on backing Remain. Who's going to take seats in places like Sunderland if Labour pledge to ignore the referendum result?
Labour's leadership won't change now because the membership won't have it, Corbyn will only be replaced by McDonnell who was never a passionate Europhile anyway. If people want to keep the EU banner flying they should join the LDs!
If there is another Labour leadership election then I don't think a Corbynite winner is an absolute given. Favourite certainly but thousands of people like SO and myself would rejoin to vote for a credible leader.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
Gordon Brown has the best reputation of all C21 Prime Ministers.
and he kept us out of the Euro!
And sold all our Gold reserves at their lows and stole many people pensions
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
Very young and inexperienced for the current time. He's also very metropolitan.
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
No evidence at all for that. If anything there are precedents about 2nd referenda getting different results. Not going to happen though.
Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?
If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
Serious question - everyone seems to be assuming that the big issue in the GE will be the position on the EU? Why? It's todays issue. But already decided, in principle at least. By the GE we may be past the point of no return. And, apart from the LibDems, who would want to fight the election on this? The biggest threat to the WWC/Labour/Leave people is a right-wing government, which surely should be the ground on which Labour must fight?
It depends whether Labour wish to make it a big issue.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
Gordon Brown has the best reputation of all C21 Prime Ministers.
and he kept us out of the Euro!
And sold all our Gold reserves at their lows and stole many people pensions
Sadly, all that seems long, long ago and rather insignificant.
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
No evidence at all for that. If anything there are precedents about 2nd referenda getting different results. Not going to happen though.
Those precedents all involve situations where concessions have been made of one sort or another. They were not just the losing side saying "we don't accept the result do it again" which is what is being suggested at the moment.
This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics. Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
Blair was very good indeed.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
I wonder whose legacy will be tarnished more; Blair by Iraq Cameron by Brexit
Gordon Brown has the best reputation of all C21 Prime Ministers.
and he kept us out of the Euro!
And sold all our Gold reserves at their lows and stole many people pensions
pluses and minuses...
also not sure why Maude didn't say which way he voted. Seems a bit sneaky...
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.
But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive. What I want our new government to look for is: -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.
We would be out of the CAP and CFP, out of the European Parliament and out of the hegemony of the CJE. We would continue to co-operate with the EU on areas of common interest such as security, pollution etc. We would pay a contribution to the EU, ideally somewhat less than half of what we pay at the moment for these market privileges.
I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Sorry, I was posting let's wait six months time, and then we'll talk.
It was the Brexiters who were posting Friday that the relatively small decline of the footsie (as opposed to the calamitous fall in sterling which they ignored) was indication that project fear was made up.
If we cannot get a deal in principle of access to the common market shortly our economy will suffer. But, the EU will only give us access to the market if we pay for it, and allow free movement of labour.
That 350 million figure is going to have be given back to the EU to pay for market access, but this time we will not get the regional, farming subsidies, the educational grants in return. And, we'll have to accept free movement of Labour.
Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.
1) Belgium's less of a real country than London
2) I said gravitas and experience.
He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
17 million people say you're wrong. BoJo has beaten John Major's long-standing 1992 record.
they were not voting for Boris....
It is true that the 17 million were not voting for Boris but look at it from the hard-headed point of view of a Tory backbench MP, especially in a marginal seat. Boris led Leave, the underdog, to a famous victory. Boris twice won the London mayoralty, in a Labour-leaning city. Boris has voter-appeal.
So leave aside thoughts of trust and betrayal -- who is best placed to save your neck and your seat? Boris or the colourless and cynically low-profile pair of May and Hammond? Boris or some yet to be determined acolyte of George Osborne? Boris or defeat?
Of course, if MPs are high-minded and vote on who is best placed to negotiate Brexit and beyond, Boris is stuffed. But are they?
Good post. A month ago, I didn't think Boris was in anyway qualified - Hell even a week ago I wasn't convinced. However, he's been much more together and serious since Thursday's result.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
He oozes snake oil and smugness. I have yet to see a more dodgy looking/sounding character. For sure you would need to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Yes small details like the Nikkei falling by twice the FTSE and the Dow falling by slightly more were completely ignored. An incredibly parochial view.
Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.
1) Belgium's less of a real country than London
2) I said gravitas and experience.
He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
17 million people say you're wrong. BoJo has beaten John Major's long-standing 1992 record.
they were not voting for Boris....
It is true that the 17 million were not voting for Boris but look at it from the hard-headed point of view of a Tory backbench MP, especially in a marginal seat. Boris led Leave, the underdog, to a famous victory. Boris twice won the London mayoralty, in a Labour-leaning city. Boris has voter-appeal.
So leave aside thoughts of trust and betrayal -- who is best placed to save your neck and your seat? Boris or the colourless and cynically low-profile pair of May and Hammond? Boris or some yet to be determined acolyte of George Osborne? Boris or defeat?
Of course, if MPs are high-minded and vote on who is best placed to negotiate Brexit and beyond, Boris is stuffed. But are they?
Good post. A month ago, I didn't think Boris was in anyway qualified - Hell even a week ago I wasn't convinced. However, he's been much more together and serious since Thursday's result.
He's got the X Factor.
He's only appeared once, unless I've missed something?
I'm sure I just heard someone on the news say that Benn has ruled himself out of the Labour leadership. Anyone confirm this? Might be important for betting...
We have had excerpts from the following article, but one comment from Matthew Elliott clearly worked for the first ITV debate and in all debates except Farage's, Vote LEAVE did well. At the first 3 vs 3, Vote LEAVE presented a team of 3, BSIE put up a disjointed, disunited, ill prepared bunch of attack dogs... and lost. yet BSIE had a massive choice of the "great and the good" and chose Eagles/Rudd/Sturgeon. (No men!)
"Elliott: We put lots of time into the TV debates because we knew that lots of voters who were unsure would want to hear the arguments so we put a lot of prep time into that. "
I'm sure I just heard someone on the news say that Benn has ruled himself out of the Labour leadership. Anyone confirm this? Might be important for betting...
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Yes small details like the Nikkei falling by twice the FTSE and the Dow falling by slightly more were completely ignored. An incredibly parochial view.
To be fair, I don't think anyone was ever suggesting that the economic consequences of Brexit would be contained within Britain's borders.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Sorry, I was posting let's wait six months time, and then we'll talk.
It was the Brexiters who were posting Friday that the relatively small decline of the footsie (as opposed to the calamitous fall in sterling which they ignored) was indication that project fear was made up.
If we cannot get a deal in principle of access to the common market shortly our economy will suffer. But, the EU will only give us access to the market if we pay for it, and allow free movement of labour.
That 350 million figure is going to have be given back to the EU to pay for market access, but this time we will not get the regional, farming subsidies, the educational grants in return. And, we'll have to accept free movement of Labour.
No it really isn't Tyson. That is just more ludicrous scare mongering. I know you are desperate for this to all go horribly wrong but that doesn't make anything you say any more likely to happen.
Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?
If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.
Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
My estimate is that about 400 constituencies voted Leave, and about 250 Remain.
I'm sure I just heard someone on the news say that Benn has ruled himself out of the Labour leadership. Anyone confirm this? Might be important for betting...
Yes.
Thanks. I'll put my money on McDonnell. The membership won't wear anyone who isn't from the left.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Sorry, I was posting let's wait six months time, and then we'll talk.
It was the Brexiters who were posting Friday that the relatively small decline of the footsie (as opposed to the calamitous fall in sterling which they ignored) was indication that project fear was made up.
If we cannot get a deal in principle of access to the common market shortly our economy will suffer. But, the EU will only give us access to the market if we pay for it, and allow free movement of labour.
That 350 million figure is going to have be given back to the EU to pay for market access, but this time we will not get the regional, farming subsidies, the educational grants in return. And, we'll have to accept free movement of Labour.
Free movement of labour would be much better than free movement of people.
I'm sure I just heard someone on the news say that Benn has ruled himself out of the Labour leadership. Anyone confirm this? Might be important for betting...
Yes.
Thanks. I'll put my money on McDonnell. The membership won't wear anyone who isn't from the left.
Before you do that you should note that he ruled himself out too.
Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
A second Referendum would give a more decisive win for Leave.
No evidence at all for that. If anything there are precedents about 2nd referenda getting different results. Not going to happen though.
The Winchester by election is one example of how Brits react to being asked to vote again. A disputed result and the Lib Dem received a massive majority.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after? Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
Can't make any real judgement either way on the economic consequences of Brexit based on 1 day's trading.
Funny, that is what the whole Remain camp on here seemed to be doing on Friday.
Yes small details like the Nikkei falling by twice the FTSE and the Dow falling by slightly more were completely ignored. An incredibly parochial view.
To be fair, I don't think anyone was ever suggesting that the economic consequences of Brexit would be contained within Britain's borders.
Exactly. And FTSE 250 - far more reflective of sentiment around UK companies - fell around 8%.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
One of the slipperiest politicians I have ever had the misfortune to meet and an empty suit to boot.
McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
Who will employ Andrew Cooper?
The Labour party? He can always ask his old flat mate Da Fink for a reference or join his friend Osborne in the party of ex politicians. He may struggle to get a reference from Cameron. Cooper was of course the architect of the gay marriage idea which helped push out 1/3 of the Conservative membership. An idea that could have been implemented through a back bencher bill rather than a Govt one.
I'm sure I just heard someone on the news say that Benn has ruled himself out of the Labour leadership. Anyone confirm this? Might be important for betting...
Yes.
Thanks. I'll put my money on McDonnell. The membership won't wear anyone who isn't from the left.
Before you do that you should note that he ruled himself out too.
Seriously, do the PB Leavers honestly believe the EU campaign was fought on the substantive issues. This is a serious question. Will at least one of them with half a brain cell please answer this?
Yes.
To be fair, Richard has been posting here about the technicalities of the common market post exit, and what deals could be made. But that represented 0.00001% of the campaign. The other 99.99% was devoted to immigration, lies like the 350 million for the NHS, and empty slogans....let's get back control.
So, 0.00001% discussed a sensible post Brexit future. The rest was utter tosh.
The BF market is for "permanent" leader of Labour Party. If Watson is interim but leads into a autumn GE - that's still not "permanent?" What if he becomes PM? Unlikely granted.
Comments
Good day
But yes the politicians in general are behaving like idiots and rather justifying the peoples recent decision not to trust them
He can always ask his old flat mate Da Fink for a reference or join his friend Osborne in the party of ex politicians. He may struggle to get a reference from Cameron. Cooper was of course the architect of the gay marriage idea which helped push out 1/3 of the Conservative membership. An idea that could have been implemented through a back bencher bill rather than a Govt one.
Pity he shat in his own bed over Iraq. He would still have a role. Not now.
My guess is that UKIP would win everywhere except North Tyneside, Darlington and Stockton (need to look at the 2015 results for a complete list). I'll do it later and put the spreadsheet up....
Hopefully they can be binned.
Together with Hinkley C and HS2.
Blair by Iraq
Cameron by Brexit
I think Leave had the correct diagnosis, an incoherent and flawed prescription (not least they had too many doctors with too many opinions, but some of their certificates seemed to have been issued by the Online Totally Legitimate School of Medicine, Nuclear Physics and Astrology), and the correct long-run prognosis. At some point, Britain (at least most of it) didn't fit anymore and was off.
Remain's disconnect suggested they had the wrong diagnosis. Their prescription was also muddled - and in many ways just as implausible to implement - take Corbyn saying he wanted an EU that imposed higher social rights across Europe, Watson saying the EU should reconsider freedom of movement - did they think they could make this happen? Their long-term prognosis of Britain locked in uncomfortable semi-detachment while the core of the EU radically transforms itself wasn't particularly attractive and simply seemed to be leaving a bigger decision for later.
Thank you.
I wonder if he would be viewed as experienced enough.
also not sure why Maude didn't say which way he voted. Seems a bit sneaky...
Have the Tories completely lost the plot?
It was the Brexiters who were posting Friday that the relatively small decline of the footsie (as opposed to the calamitous fall in sterling which they ignored) was indication that project fear was made up.
If we cannot get a deal in principle of access to the common market shortly our economy will suffer. But, the EU will only give us access to the market if we pay for it, and allow free movement of labour.
That 350 million figure is going to have be given back to the EU to pay for market access, but this time we will not get the regional, farming subsidies, the educational grants in return. And, we'll have to accept free movement of Labour.
He's got the X Factor.
At the first 3 vs 3, Vote LEAVE presented a team of 3, BSIE put up a disjointed, disunited, ill prepared bunch of attack dogs... and lost.
yet BSIE had a massive choice of the "great and the good" and chose Eagles/Rudd/Sturgeon. (No men!)
"Elliott: We put lots of time into the TV debates because we knew that lots of voters who were unsure would want to hear the arguments so we put a lot of prep time into that. "
https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu
Would the referendum have resulted in this mess if we had had AV? I'm sure there's a topic or 3 in it for you....
So, 0.00001% discussed a sensible post Brexit future. The rest was utter tosh.