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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A very British coup.

SystemSystem Posts: 12,471
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A very British coup.

What an interesting few hours where Labour are trying to look even more split than the Tory party, but I do think the plotters inside the  Labour party are doing the right thing, I’ve said many times Jeremy Corbyn will lead Labour to an epochal defeat at a general election, whereas someone vaguely electable might actually defeat the Tories at the next general election.

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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    First like Leave
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Second like Corbyn's most optimistic scenario at a General Election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    We could have an election with two interim leaders.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    FPT: Anecdote alert.

    The Corbyn magic doesn't seem to be working on Facebook or Twitter. Opinion seems genuinely divided rather than behind him. A big change. He could be going.

    ...

    My favourite comment from the FB Labour party forum (usually a Corbyn fan club)

    "I'm desperate for a Left Wing Leader. Corbyn meets the first requirement, but obviously not the second."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,003
    surbiton said:

    We could have an election with two interim leaders.

    Yep and good luck trying to predict who will win that....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    McDonnell "I shall never run for leadership of the Labour Party"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812

    Hilary Benn. The man who tirelessly fights for the poor against nepotism and the untouchable elite. Just like his father and grandfathers did before him and no doubt any of his kids in the future too if they are able to fog a mirror.

    His niece was selected as a parliamentary candidate at age 17 I believe. Very able young woman apparently, Cyclefree has met her IIRC, and definitely selected on merit at age 17, I am sure.
  • Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,732

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Labour MPs could end up looking very silly. Full speed ahead!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    Ahem.. I have been saying don't trust any poll since before GE2015. Events have proved it so.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    No
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?

    If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.

    Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago
    Labour source tells me that McDonnell and Milne want Corbyn out
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,948

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    There’s been a belief that whomever the Tories elect they win a general election against Jeremy Corbyn

    A complacent believe that might not have been true. And against a credible Labour leader won't be true. Though who from Labour is both credible and not going to piss off the northern voters by going gung ho for Remain?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
    A great metaphor for Britain in that picture.

    Hanging by a thread with a giant wedgie, waving the Union Jack.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,030
    Yes, it's squeaky bum time for Boris - being PM under Brexit and having to face someone other than Corbyn wasn't in the plan I reckon. I wonder if he'll make his excuses this time and try again in a few years, when and if things have settled down a fraction.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back as 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like the many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?

    TSE- undoubtedly the cleverest line I have read in pbCOM in my 12 years of venturing onto this site. So, I can guess you are on the anyone but Boris group.

    FWIW- I know that you threatened to leave the Tory Party- but you won't. Like me with Corbyn, you'll stick around. Loyalty to your political party is too hard to shake off.

    Lastly, New Order weren't that great last night. I hate myself for this, but Adele was much better.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,595
    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
  • I can't believe Labour are doing this. Gives Boris and his team a few days when all the press are looking the other way, and also gives Boris the justification to tell Dave to go immediately in the National Interest.

    Parliament is going to be a little like parliament was after the fall of France this week methinks.

    Boris PM, government of national unity with the likes of Gisella as minister for Europe, Ian paisley Junior as education secretary, and maybe just maybe Frank Field as Welfare Secretary.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Who has resigned ? I am hearing, one every hour. So far only Heidi as I can see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    Blimey, things exploded overnight :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    McDonnell rules himself out of standing in a Labour leadership election.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746


    Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.

    If we're out of the EU, or if the Conservative Party have a committed Leave leader, I would expect UKIP's support to fizzle.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    McDonnell "I shall never run for leadership of the Labour Party"


    Fox....That is political speak for I am 100% certain of running for the leadership
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    DanSmith said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago
    Labour source tells me that McDonnell and Milne want Corbyn out

    Corbyn is finding out that the advice Sir Humphrey gave Jim Hacker is true - to be leader, you need to have a killer instinct.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    Ahem.. I have been saying don't trust any poll since before GE2015. Events have proved it so.
    The future for the polling industry has got to be moving away from media friendly "certainty" in the way their polls are presented, and more towards offering a range of scenarios to be interpreted by those who use them. Stop all the myriad of "adjustments" that are made, concentrate on doing everything possible to get a representative sample.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,544
    edited June 2016

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    Very true. And he has been a cabinet minister. A much more impressive resume than Blair or Cameron when they were chosen.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,848

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
    I find it very encouraging that they are coming round to the English language....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    Vote Boris to make Britain like Belgium - what could possibly go wrong?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.

    If we're out of the EU, or if the Conservative Party have a committed Leave leader, I would expect UKIP's support to fizzle.
    I would too, I fully expected UKIP to dissolve and disappear. But I didn't count on Labour and the Lib Dems deciding to go "double or quits" on backing Remain. Who's going to take seats in places like Sunderland if Labour pledge to ignore the referendum result?
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    kle4 said:

    Hilary Benn. The man who tirelessly fights for the poor against nepotism and the untouchable elite. Just like his father and grandfathers did before him and no doubt any of his kids in the future too if they are able to fog a mirror.

    His niece was selected as a parliamentary candidate at age 17 I believe. Very able young woman apparently, Cyclefree has met her IIRC, and definitely selected on merit at age 17, I am sure.
    Oh really, that is incredibly surprising. I'm sure she is one of the best people to sock it to the privileged Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    Fishing said:

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    Very true. And he has been a cabinet minister. .
    Strictly speaking hasn't he been a 'attends cabinet' rather than an actual cabinet member? Splitting hairs, but still.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Clive Lewis is getting a petition together to back Corbyn. The next leader of the Labour party cannot have any blood of their hands for this bloody, sam peckinpah esque assassination- which probably excludes 90% of the party, and all the leading moderates.
    That leaves Clive Lewis in a good position.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2016

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,277
    Fishing said:

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    Very true. And he has been a cabinet minister. A much more impressive resume than Blair or Cameron when they were chosen.
    Not entirely true. The London mayor's powers are pretty limited and he's only been a member of the political cabinet - and that for a matter of weeks. Blair and Cameron had both been Shadow PM and led their parties for 3 years or more when the entered No 10.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    DanSmith said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
    They also weighted 10/10 likely to vote turnout for 18-24 year olds as 63%, turned out to be 36%.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,332
    May you live in interesting times.

    The problem with all the smug nonsense about Brexit having broken it so they own it is that right now they don't. Cameron is still PM and Osborne is still Chancellor. Neither Boris nor Gove (outside Justice) have any significant input into government policy.

    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    On the Labour side I think the PLP have to pick a new leader to be leader of the Opposition in Parliament. They can't stop Corbyn from carrying on with the title of leader of the Labour party but they can make that meaningless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    RobD said:

    DanSmith said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
    They also weighted 10/10 likely to vote turnout for 18-24 year olds as 63%, turned out to be 36%.....
    Was that really the turnout of young people?

    There's no excuse for them then, bloody well turnout!!
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    I can't believe the pathetic meltdown people are having over leaving the complete and utter political and economic failure of the EU. This is the Diana moment for all those in favour of a undemocratic bureaucracy.

    Of course Britain leaving was inevitable anyway. The EU is going to become one nation eventually with an army, flag, anthem the lot and the British people would just never accept that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    17 million people say you're wrong. BoJo has beaten John Major's long-standing 1992 record.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    DavidL said:


    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,606
    DanSmith said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
    Not completely. Safe Tory areas like Kensington and Chelsea, Cities of London and Westminster, Tunbridge Wells, Mid Sussex, Mole Valley, Rushcliffe etc voted Remain while safe Labour areas like Sunderland, Barking, North Tyneside, Merthyr Tydfil, Barnsley etc voted for Leave
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,948
    tyson said:

    Which doesn’t help Boris Johnson but does help Theresa May, who you can still back as 3/1 as next Tory leader, or you might consider like the many mistresses of Boris, should you be laying him?

    TSE- undoubtedly the cleverest line I have read in pbCOM in my 12 years of venturing onto this site. So, I can guess you are on the anyone but Boris group.

    FWIW- I know that you threatened to leave the Tory Party- but you won't. Like me with Corbyn, you'll stick around. Loyalty to your political party is too hard to shake off.

    Lastly, New Order weren't that great last night. I hate myself for this, but Adele was much better.

    I'm very proud of that line.

    As for your last line, I'll pretend you didn't say that
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    17 million people say you're wrong. BoJo has beaten John Major's long-standing 1992 record.
    they were not voting for Boris....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,606
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,848

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    I don't think his price is that small...

    Boris took a gamble with his career. He had to walk away from political friendships and political certainties. But he has bipartisan appeal. As a Tory, he got people to vote for him as the Labour city of London. I suspect that he has been the reason why a number of Labour leaning voters were prepared to vote Leave. They wouldn't if Farage had been the face of Leave. Hell, I wouldn't have voted Leave if Farage had been it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    DanSmith said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    A bit of both. The phone polls quite often had Tory voters voting for Remain, which turned out to be wrong.
    They also weighted 10/10 likely to vote turnout for 18-24 year olds as 63%, turned out to be 36%.....
    Was that really the turnout of young people?

    There's no excuse for them then, bloody well turnout!!
    I think it was based on Ashcroft's poll, but I could be mistaken. So probably not 100% correct, but right ballpark.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,311
    Nice to see you plucked up the courage to use the line after all TSE :-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    Just as well that I paid for my hotel in Copenhagen in advance.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    A few, no doubt, but it's too soon to say if the early bad signs will be sustained so to regrexit so quickly is too soon. Unless you didn't really want to leave and thought it a protest vote to show the EU or our elites a message, in which case tough luck. I hope it will not, but if I do have to get on my knees and apologise for stupidity in a few years, I shall do so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    There was a poll saying 7% of Leave voters regretted their vote, and 4% of Remain voters similarly regretted their vote. Not enough to change the result :p
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    Telephone pollsters (plus Populus) got this wrong.

    In deciphering the polls it is vital to ask the right questions.

    Many wrongly concluded that their Tory/Labour performance was the best indicator of telephone superiority last year, when their poor performance on left/right was the real giveaway.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,848
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
    The chance of bat-shit socialist Corbyn ever getting his hands on power are now receding - that should be good for the long-term prospects of this country.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428
    Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 6h6 hours ago

    Political Polls Retweeted Political Polls

    Maine GE,
    In the 2nd Congressional District:

    Trump 30% (+2)
    Clinton 28
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,606


    Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.

    If we're out of the EU, or if the Conservative Party have a committed Leave leader, I would expect UKIP's support to fizzle.
    I would too, I fully expected UKIP to dissolve and disappear. But I didn't count on Labour and the Lib Dems deciding to go "double or quits" on backing Remain. Who's going to take seats in places like Sunderland if Labour pledge to ignore the referendum result?
    Labour's leadership won't change now because the membership won't have it, Corbyn will only be replaced by McDonnell who was never a passionate Europhile anyway. If people want to keep the EU banner flying they should join the LDs!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    I don't think his price is that small...

    Boris took a gamble with his career. He had to walk away from political friendships and political certainties. But he has bipartisan appeal. As a Tory, he got people to vote for him as the Labour city of London. I suspect that he has been the reason why a number of Labour leaning voters were prepared to vote Leave. They wouldn't if Farage had been the face of Leave. Hell, I wouldn't have voted Leave if Farage had been it.
    On a FPTP basis "leave" won overwhemingly, a landslide for provincial England. This makes Boris even stronger than the 52-48 result suggests.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,044

    I can't believe Labour are doing this. Gives Boris and his team a few days when all the press are looking the other way, and also gives Boris the justification to tell Dave to go immediately in the National Interest.

    Parliament is going to be a little like parliament was after the fall of France this week methinks.

    Boris PM, government of national unity with the likes of Gisella as minister for Europe, Ian paisley Junior as education secretary, and maybe just maybe Frank Field as Welfare Secretary.

    I honestly think that is wishful thinking, particularly if a change of Labour leadership is on the cards.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,606

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
    The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited June 2016
    The Labour Party RIP 26th June 2016.
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    A few, no doubt, but it's too soon to say if the early bad signs will be sustained so to regrexit so quickly is too soon. Unless you didn't really want to leave and thought it a protest vote to show the EU or our elites a message, in which case tough luck. I hope it will not, but if I do have to get on my knees and apologise for stupidity in a few years, I shall do so.
    If the UK emerges through this economic, political and constitutional crisis- undoubtedly the most profound since Suez, as stronger and more prosperous, then I too will get down on my knees and beg forgiveness.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    I don't think his price is that small...

    Boris took a gamble with his career. He had to walk away from political friendships and political certainties. But he has bipartisan appeal. As a Tory, he got people to vote for him as the Labour city of London. I suspect that he has been the reason why a number of Labour leaning voters were prepared to vote Leave. They wouldn't if Farage had been the face of Leave. Hell, I wouldn't have voted Leave if Farage had been it.
    Farage was there, you were voting for Farage and all the other faces.. You cannot hide behind Boris.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    England and Wales (excl London) - Leave 55.2 Remain 44.8
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    Didn't some of the pollsters make method changes which favoured Remain ?

    If so it makes me wonder why ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    edited June 2016

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    I have sympathy with the pollsters. Even Jack W got this wrong. The question is, were the pollsters who called it right, good or lucky?
    Didn't some of the pollsters make method changes which favoured Remain ?

    If so it makes me wonder why ?
    Conspiracy no.2 - To shore up wavering leavers, so they thought it wouldn't matter if they voted remain?

    Edit - conspiracy no.1 is article 50 will never be declared, the government are waiting months in the hope something come sup to allow a second referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428
    edited June 2016
    I don't know if this means anything, but 2 flats in SW1 and NW3 have by far the highest availability (Sellers over buyers) on a bridging loan website that I invest of anywhere in the country.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,030
    You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment. I suppose they're pro-immigration (nannies, plumbers, cheap labour for big business) and want to wind down the NHS, so why now pretend otherwise? There's also the thought that if the WWC are peeved then the only thing that can happen is that they turn their backs on politics and just don't vote Labour. I think it's a dangerous strategy myself, but they obviously think it will work.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.

    I wonder how many Regrexiters there are....3 days after?
    Sterling and the markets will go into melt down next week- the 20% Brexit correction that we were warned of may come much sooner than anticipated.
    Sterling rallied by the end of trading last week
    Nope - any rally was technical and had fizzled away later in the day - sterling trades 24 hours Monday - Friday.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Awkward, now being trolled by :tumbleweed:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    chestnut said:

    England and Wales (excl London) - Leave 55.2 Remain 44.8

    Yikes - well, regrexiters aren't overturning that. I'd give up on that second referendum lads.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    IDS has said that the new Tory Leader/PM should be a Leaver. That would be a mistake. If the economy goes into recession or slows significantly it will be blamed on Brexit, true or not. The Leader will lose authority and perhaps the next GE. Theresa May is the logical choice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    HYUFD said:

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
    The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
    Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,332
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:


    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.

    But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive.
    What I want our new government to look for is:
    -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and
    _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.

    We would be out of the CAP and CFP, out of the European Parliament and out of the hegemony of the CJE. We would continue to co-operate with the EU on areas of common interest such as security, pollution etc. We would pay a contribution to the EU, ideally somewhat less than half of what we pay at the moment for these market privileges.

    I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics.
    Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,044

    Has/can anyone figure out how many of the 650 regular constituencies voted Leave and how many voted Remain?

    If Labour Remainers successfully have a coup to get a more pro-Remain leader, joining the Lib Dems in pledging to be "the party for the 48%" while the Tories elect a leave leader and that's how we go into the General Election we could be in for interesting times.

    Surely UKIP would dissolve now as a threat against the Tory right with a Leave leader and have to ruthlessly target the Labour Party working class that have voted Leave.

    If Leave try to renege on stopping FoM as Hannan & Evans are already suggesting they will then UKIP will be livid and going full out against Boris. Until that becomes clear UKIP will stick around.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,944
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:


    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.

    The received wisdom yesterday (my, how quickly things are changing nowadays) was that it was in the UK's interest to delay negotiations, while the EU wanted to push forward. I'm thinking now that whoever emerges from the political swamp will want to get this thing put to bed and will more our less agree to whatever the EU proposes
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    McDonnell: "They're citing polls at us, who trusts polls anymore". Actually that's quite a good question for a thread soon once the ramifications of Thursday's vote settles down a bit. The polls have had another drubbing, can we trust what they say again?

    In fairness Opinium and TNS did well, and Survation and Yougov did adequately.
    Who will employ Andrew Cooper? :wink:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,593
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    I don't think his price is that small...

    Boris took a gamble with his career. He had to walk away from political friendships and political certainties. But he has bipartisan appeal. As a Tory, he got people to vote for him as the Labour city of London. I suspect that he has been the reason why a number of Labour leaning voters were prepared to vote Leave. They wouldn't if Farage had been the face of Leave. Hell, I wouldn't have voted Leave if Farage had been it.
    On a FPTP basis "leave" won overwhemingly, a landslide for provincial England. This makes Boris even stronger than the 52-48 result suggests.
    Pretty much all the marginal Con-Lab and Con-LD constituencies would have voted Leave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,848

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    I don't think his price is that small...

    Boris took a gamble with his career. He had to walk away from political friendships and political certainties. But he has bipartisan appeal. As a Tory, he got people to vote for him as the Labour city of London. I suspect that he has been the reason why a number of Labour leaning voters were prepared to vote Leave. They wouldn't if Farage had been the face of Leave. Hell, I wouldn't have voted Leave if Farage had been it.
    Farage was there, you were voting for Farage and all the other faces.. You cannot hide behind Boris.
    Well if you say I was, then I must have been.

    Have the humility to stop being so fucking certain about things of which you know nothing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,944
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:


    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.

    The received wisdom yesterday (my, how quickly things are changing nowadays) was that it was in the UK's interest to delay negotiations, while the EU wanted to push forward. I'm thinking now that whoever emerges from the political swamp will want to put this thing to bed and will more our less agree to whatever the EU proposes
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    timmo said:

    This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics.
    Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.

    Cometh the hour cometh the man! Telfon Tony PM for a second hurrah!

    Maybe not after Chilcott
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    1) Belgium's less of a real country than London

    2) I said gravitas and experience.
    He doesn't have gravitas? I thought that three months ago sure, but he has surely developed gravitas in leading a campaign to get 17 million to vote for what he was fronting. Even his somber 'victory speech' showed class and gravitas.
    Boris is two faced.. there for everyone to see. Sold his soul for 30 pieces of silver.
    17 million people say you're wrong. BoJo has beaten John Major's long-standing 1992 record.
    they were not voting for Boris....
    It is true that the 17 million were not voting for Boris but look at it from the hard-headed point of view of a Tory backbench MP, especially in a marginal seat. Boris led Leave, the underdog, to a famous victory. Boris twice won the London mayoralty, in a Labour-leaning city. Boris has voter-appeal.

    So leave aside thoughts of trust and betrayal -- who is best placed to save your neck and your seat? Boris or the colourless and cynically low-profile pair of May and Hammond? Boris or some yet to be determined acolyte of George Osborne? Boris or defeat?

    Of course, if MPs are high-minded and vote on who is best placed to negotiate Brexit and beyond, Boris is stuffed. But are they?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,544

    Fishing said:

    Boris not got experience? He has been executive president of a "country" with a bigger population than Belgium for 8 years.

    Very true. And he has been a cabinet minister. A much more impressive resume than Blair or Cameron when they were chosen.
    Not entirely true. The London mayor's powers are pretty limited and he's only been a member of the political cabinet - and that for a matter of weeks. Blair and Cameron had both been Shadow PM and led their parties for 3 years or more when the entered No 10.
    Ah, I should have been clear, I was thinking about when they were chosen as party leaders, not as Prime Minister.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    perdix said:

    IDS has said that the new Tory Leader/PM should be a Leaver. That would be a mistake. If the economy goes into recession or slows significantly it will be blamed on Brexit, true or not. The Leader will lose authority and perhaps the next GE. Theresa May is the logical choice.

    A unity candidate, so to speak. With Gove as Chancellor, perhaps (although perhaps his support of Boris makes this idea less likely?)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't know if this means anything, but 2 flats in SW1 and NW3 have by far the highest availability (Sellers over buyers) on a bridging loan website that I invest of anywhere in the country.

    I am not sure what that means.

    Are they shorting the London property market?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,311
    Boris was clearly an asset to the Leave side (though I really can't work out why beyond superficial bonhomie) but like many other Leavers I would not support him for PM. He strikes me as a happy version of Corbyn and if he did get elected as the new Tory leader would be a perfect example of the Peter Principle in operation in politics.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:


    This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty. Cameron needs to accelerate the transfer of power to days rather than months. Whether that will allow the party the full membership ballot I am not sure. They would need to move very fast. It may be that the MP who gets the most support in the Parliamentary party could take over as interim leader pending the membership's decision but even that would increase the period of uncertainty in a dangerous way.

    It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. But if we move quickly, we will have no excuse to delay the article 50 and have to start the clock perhaps before we are ready.

    But the article 50 is a 2 year process with possible extensions so starting it is not definitive.
    What I want our new government to look for is:
    -Access to the Single Market for both goods and services and
    _ Some control on immigration from the EU such as having to have a confirmed job before you come.

    How will we fill gaps in the market in areas dominated by self employed labour?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    Pretty good spread on the second ref petition - dominated by the usual suspects, naturally, but getting thousands in constituencies across the board. I feel sorry for Remainer MPs in any debate on it 'We'd like to everyone, but it ain't gonna happen'.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't know if this means anything, but 2 flats in SW1 and NW3 have by far the highest availability (Sellers over buyers) on a bridging loan website that I invest of anywhere in the country.

    Anyone fancy a Scottish industrial estate?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440

    timmo said:

    This is the most cogent interview i have seen in the last 3 days from any politician with Blair on the Sunday politics.
    Not talking the country down. Saying everybody should calm down and take stock.

    Cometh the hour cometh the man! Telfon Tony PM for a second hurrah!

    Maybe not after Chilcott
    Blimey, you don't often hear Blair being praised on here. Will have to catch up on that interview.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I can't believe Labour are doing this. Gives Boris and his team a few days when all the press are looking the other way, and also gives Boris the justification to tell Dave to go immediately in the National Interest.

    Parliament is going to be a little like parliament was after the fall of France this week methinks.

    Boris PM, government of national unity with the likes of Gisella as minister for Europe, Ian paisley Junior as education secretary, and maybe just maybe Frank Field as Welfare Secretary.

    When is recess? Aren't there a couple of Bills to sort as well - the City Mayors?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,030
    perdix said:

    IDS has said that the new Tory Leader/PM should be a Leaver. That would be a mistake. If the economy goes into recession or slows significantly it will be blamed on Brexit, true or not. The Leader will lose authority and perhaps the next GE. Theresa May is the logical choice.

    Indeed. And that's why it's vital that Labour choose a moderate and a Remainer. If they do, and Boris is PM, Brexit could be a massive cudgel with which to beat the Tories to a pulp.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,311
    perdix said:

    IDS has said that the new Tory Leader/PM should be a Leaver. That would be a mistake. If the economy goes into recession or slows significantly it will be blamed on Brexit, true or not. The Leader will lose authority and perhaps the next GE. Theresa May is the logical choice.

    I am coming round to May even though I don't like the authoritarian streak in her.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Who dug up Mancis Fraude?
This discussion has been closed.