politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Panelbase SNP Poll

SystemSystem Posts: 11,714
edited September 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Panelbase SNP Poll

The findings is that if the 2015 general election would result in another Tory-led or Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition Government at Westminster,  41% said they are “very likely” to vote Yes and 9% “quite likely”.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2013
    Oh good. A Scotland thread.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    edited September 2013
    Curse of the new thread. Had asked ...

    In preparation for tomorrow, are there any good australian websites with maps/figures/data for the PB anorak to spend a saturday afternoon?

    O(n)T,
    It is entirely valid for a client to want to try out different approaches – and if the raising of those two concepts really did have an effect, that’s a potentially interesting finding in itself.
    "As long as they pay us, we'll do it". No scruples ;-)
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    RobD said:

    It is entirely valid for a client to want to try out different approaches – and if the raising of those two concepts really did have an effect, that’s a potentially interesting finding in itself.
    "As long as they pay us, we'll do it". No scruples ;-)

    After all, if they really wanted to test different approaches, they could have done the survey with half the sample being asked the leading questions first, and the other half being asked them after the voting question.

    Anyway: Sadly, I think the result will be a firm No.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    That's not a 'huge' difference really is it. 4 pts when you have margins of error in there as well.

    Still nothing to change the narrative that the 'Yes' campaign have a serious uphill struggle.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Not an enormous difference. Good of the firm to issue a reply.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    RichardNabavi said:

    RobD said:

    It is entirely valid for a client to want to try out different approaches – and if the raising of those two concepts really did have an effect, that’s a potentially interesting finding in itself.
    "As long as they pay us, we'll do it". No scruples ;-)
    After all, if they really wanted to test different approaches, they could have done the survey with half the sample being asked the leading questions first, and the other half being asked them after the voting question.


    Agreed. Dodgy poll, crappy excuse.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    .. and even then it won't be over, you'll be able to do wall-to-wall threads on DevoMax and what it means for Ed.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    No Scotland thread can be considered complete without a quick reminder of why we love Scotland so much:

    http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2013/06/14/25-reasons-why-we-love-scotland/
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    RichardNabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    .. and even then it won't be over, you'll be able to do wall-to-wall threads on DevoMax and what it means for Ed.
    You mean 'Salmond is crap' threads, surely ;-)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    One of my Scottish friends has said to me, if he was a supporter of Scottish Independence, he'd be cheering for England to qualify for the World Cup next year, as England in the world cup, and the usual hype should be worth at least 5% to the Yes side in the referendum
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    Will it be like the end of the 'Shawshank Redemption', where we have to crawl though 54 weeks of **** to get to the cleansing post referendum rain?

    I have a feeling it will, but instead of Morgan Freeman on a beach, it'll be Salmond with 'we want 'devo max' rant.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Perhaps one of the other leading pollsters could have a play around with...

    "How crap is Ed?" or "Ed is crap", innit?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    RichardNabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    .. and even then it won't be over, you'll be able to do wall-to-wall threads on DevoMax and what it means for Ed.
    Actually I have a half written piece which says

    "If Scotland votes yes next year, should David Cameron's first response should be disenfranchise Scottish voters from the 2015 General Election?"
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edmundintokyo said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    RobD said:

    It is entirely valid for a client to want to try out different approaches – and if the raising of those two concepts really did have an effect, that’s a potentially interesting finding in itself.
    "As long as they pay us, we'll do it". No scruples ;-)
    After all, if they really wanted to test different approaches, they could have done the survey with half the sample being asked the leading questions first, and the other half being asked them after the voting question.
    Agreed. Dodgy poll, crappy excuse.


    Panelbase blame the " client " for this travesty.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Eagles, something would need doing. It'd be morally indefensible to have Scots on both sides of the negotiating table.

    I've long said that any Yes vote would bolster the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of it.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    SquareRoot said:

    Perhaps one of the other leading pollsters could have a play around with...

    "How crap is Ed?" or "Ed is crap", innit?

    Wouldn't make a difference.. Ed is crap.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,770
    This is a bit of a red herring imo. While the polls have been narrowing I can't see there being a clear cut Tory lead by this time next year, they need to put on about 10-15 points depending on who you believe. More likely we're looking at polls saying a hung Parlt.. If the Blues are to have a chance of forming a government I can't see polling moving until post Indyref and closer to a GE, subject of course to events and Ed's latest cock-up.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    F1: rain likelier than it was for qualifying/the race, but still unlikely. Definitely worth checking beforehand, though.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, something would need doing. It'd be morally indefensible to have Scots on both sides of the negotiating table.

    I've long said that any Yes vote would bolster the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of it.

    Well one of the things we may see is a realignment of the left in Rump UK.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,163
    Just a quick heads-up on Germany; I'm hearing there are some polls coming out that show both the FDP and AfD gaining share and the Greens being in free fall...
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As with all referenda, the vote will be decided on the basis of the question that the public decide they are being asked, which may have little to do with the words of the question. This polling is useful for understanding what implied question might lead to success for the independence cause.

    It seems that the SNP needs to make this referendum about "who do you trust more, Westminster or Holyrood?"
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Actually I have a half written piece which says

    "If Scotland votes yes next year, should David Cameron's first response should be disenfranchise Scottish voters from the 2015 General Election?"

    At the last PB drinks, I had an interesting discussion with Double Carpet on that point. In fact I scribbled out a draft of a possible guest article on the subject on the train home. Maybe I should try to knock into shape and submit it to see if Mike wants to run it.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I hope Ed is watching Obama's press conference
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    RichardNabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Actually I have a half written piece which says

    "If Scotland votes yes next year, should David Cameron's first response should be disenfranchise Scottish voters from the 2015 General Election?"

    At the last PB drinks, I had an interesting discussion with Double Carpet on that point. In fact I scribbled out a draft of a possible guest article on the subject on the train home. Maybe I should try to knock into shape and submit it to see if Mike wants to run it.
    I'm fairly certain Mike would run that.

    Unfortunately where my piece runs aground is what will the Lib Dems do?
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    rcs1000

    The German greens are in freefall because they have 'won' the green energy debate and now the average German is seeing what it means to his bank balance.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Slackbladder said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Perhaps one of the other leading pollsters could have a play around with...

    "How crap is Ed?" or "Ed is crap", innit?

    Wouldn't make a difference.. Ed is crap.
    that is a known fact but it might reduce his natural leader % to zero if the "better" question was asked first?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    OT Wonkblog reckon a big chunk of the drop in the US jobs report was due to a single pornographic thespian being diagnosed with HIV, which resulted in a large chunk of the motion picture industry being shut down:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/is-pornography-killing-the-economy/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT Wonkblog reckon a big chunk of the drop in the US jobs report was due to a single pornographic thespian being diagnosed with HIV, which resulted in a large chunk of the motion picture industry being shut down:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/is-pornography-killing-the-economy/

    I thought the porn industry was solely responsible for inflation in the US economy?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @TSE Never mind the Lib Dems, might the northern Irish parties break longstanding habits and vote in favour of a measure that would substantially increase their influence in Parliament? A majority might therefore be possible without the Lib Dems on such a measure.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    Independence is a question for far longer than who is going to be in charge for the next 4 years.

    These 4% who are switching their vote are the thickies/froth that switches VI every time one party is on the telly more than another aren't they ?
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    " another finding released by Panelbase from their poll commissioned by the SNP."

    Wouldn’t it be better to put the whole sorry mess to bed and forget it ever happened?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    antifrank said:

    @TSE Never mind the Lib Dems, might the northern Irish parties break longstanding habits and vote in favour of a measure that would substantially increase their influence in Parliament? A majority might therefore be possible without the Lib Dems on such a measure.

    That is a very good point.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,341
    edited September 2013
    Balanced piece TSE. What was most interesting to me re. prospect of Lab & Con governments was that a significant minority of SCon voters would vote Yes at the prospect of a Labour majority (I realise we're talking fairly tiddly numbers though).
    Actually the issue of leading questions/preambles à la Panelbase & Yougov has some relevance to the referendum itself, and kind of encapsulates the arguments. The Yes campaign will be consistently asking voters to think about Scotland as a successful independent country and whether they trust Holyrood more than Westminister, while No will be emphasising the finality of separation from the UK. If nothing else such polls will indicate what's working for the respective campaigns.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Balanced piece TSE. What was most interesting to me re. prospect of Lab & Con governments was that a significant minority of SCon voters would vote Yes at the prospect of a Labour majority (I realise we're talking fairly tiddly numbers though).
    Actually the issue of leading questions/preambles à la Panelbase & Yougov has some relevance to the referendum itself, and kind of encapsulates the arguments. The Yes campaign will be consistently asking voters to think about Scotland as a successful independent country and whether they trust Holyrood more than Westminister, while No will be emphasising the finality of separation from the UK. If nothing else it'll indicate what's working for the respective campaigns.

    But given that the campaign will be going on while these opinion polls are being done, surely the preamble is not necessary? It's not as if the pollsters find someone who has been living under a rock for the last 5 years and has no idea there was even an upcoming referendum.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    SimonStClare said:

    " another finding released by Panelbase from their poll commissioned by the SNP."

    Wouldn’t it be better to put the whole sorry mess to bed and forget it ever happened?

    No, because when I did the TNS-BMRB thread, I noted, if you consider Panelbase's approach flawed, the TNS-BMRB figure for no wasn't that far away from the Panelbase figure.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, something would need doing. It'd be morally indefensible to have Scots on both sides of the negotiating table.

    I've long said that any Yes vote would bolster the SNP north of the border and the Conservatives south of it.

    What would be more interesting is if the 'Yes' side won, yet the SNP lost control of Holyrood in the election after (it's unlikely, but its possible).

    What would be negiotating team covering the independence settlement consist off (especially if labour were in power in both Scotland and Westminster).
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT Wonkblog reckon a big chunk of the drop in the US jobs report was due to a single pornographic thespian being diagnosed with HIV, which resulted in a large chunk of the motion picture industry being shut down:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/is-pornography-killing-the-economy/

    Underemployment in the porn industry must be very soul-destroying. Spending all your time looking for small parts to take can't be much fun.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Balanced piece TSE. What was most interesting to me re. prospect of Lab & Con governments was that a significant minority of SCon voters would vote Yes at the prospect of a Labour majority (I realise we're talking fairly tiddly numbers though).
    Actually the issue of leading questions/preambles à la Panelbase & Yougov has some relevance to the referendum itself, and kind of encapsulates the arguments. The Yes campaign will be consistently asking voters to think about Scotland as a successful independent country and whether they trust Holyrood more than Westminister, while No will be emphasising the finality of separation from the UK. If nothing else it'll indicate what's working for the respective campaigns.

    Antifrank has it right

    It seems that the SNP needs to make this referendum about "who do you trust more, Westminster or Holyrood?"
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,056
    Australian election:

    Polling hours are 8am to 6pm.

    For Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane that's equivalent to 11pm to 9am UK time.

    South Australia: 11:30pm to 9:30am UK time.

    Western Australia: 1am to 11am UK time.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    antifrank said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT Wonkblog reckon a big chunk of the drop in the US jobs report was due to a single pornographic thespian being diagnosed with HIV, which resulted in a large chunk of the motion picture industry being shut down:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/is-pornography-killing-the-economy/

    Underemployment in the porn industry must be very soul-destroying. Spending all your time looking for small parts to take can't be much fun.
    In one of the magazines I read, a few years ago, it was entitled that viagra had caused unemployment for fluffers.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    SeanT said:

    Panelbase. A small furniture company from Forfar, with some bloke at the back who conducts occasional polls to finance his smack habit.

    It's not ICM, is it?

    Not ICM, but they were the first pollster to detect that the SNP were on course for a landslide in 2011.
  • Options
    GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    Regarding this poll, as a researcher I would say it is very important to say 'no' to your clients sometimes. For example, one of the industry's key prohibitions is against product promotion disguised as market research and we do sometimes have to say to clients you can't do that as it could be promotional. Another common one is to say no you can't do that because it breaks data protection laws.

    Regarding Scotland, the article sounds interesting. What I think would be interesting is an article looking at the likely consequences for Westminster and Holyrood politics of:

    A yes vote
    A narrow no vote
    A thumping no vote

    One of the other things I think would be interesting is for some of our Scottish posters to say how they think an independent Scotland in 2025 would be different to a Scotland that stays in the Union in 2025
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    " another finding released by Panelbase from their poll commissioned by the SNP."

    Wouldn’t it be better to put the whole sorry mess to bed and forget it ever happened?

    No, because when I did the TNS-BMRB thread, I noted, if you consider Panelbase's approach flawed, the TNS-BMRB figure for no wasn't that far away from the Panelbase figure.
    Fair point TSE.

    (BTW, really appreciate all the hard work you’ve done, standing in for mike. – cheers.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    It seems that the SNP needs to make this referendum about "who do you trust more, Westminster or Holyrood?"

    Yes, but at the moment it is can you trust the people who lied about the legal advice they didn't have, and change their position on every significant question on a whim
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    Panelbase. A small furniture company from Forfar, with some bloke at the back who conducts occasional polls to finance his smack habit.

    It's not ICM, is it?

    Or even MFI.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    " another finding released by Panelbase from their poll commissioned by the SNP."

    Wouldn’t it be better to put the whole sorry mess to bed and forget it ever happened?

    No, because when I did the TNS-BMRB thread, I noted, if you consider Panelbase's approach flawed, the TNS-BMRB figure for no wasn't that far away from the Panelbase figure.
    Fair point TSE.

    (BTW, really appreciate all the hard work you’ve done, standing in for mike. – cheers.
    Thanks, wait until you see this evening's thread.

    It is my favourite thread I've ever written, as it includes a video featuring one of Girls Aloud and a gratuitous slam at Welsh Rugby.
  • Options
    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    It seems that the SNP needs to make this referendum about "who do you trust more, Westminster or Holyrood?"

    Yes, but at the moment it is can you trust the people who lied about the legal advice they didn't have, and change their position on every significant question on a whim
    If Scottish people were worried about parties lying about legal advice, who do you think they would vote for in Westminster elections?

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    a gratuitous slam at Welsh Rugby.

    Which one of the three slams we've won in the last nine years would that be?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,341
    RobD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Balanced piece TSE. What was most interesting to me re. prospect of Lab & Con governments was that a significant minority of SCon voters would vote Yes at the prospect of a Labour majority (I realise we're talking fairly tiddly numbers though).
    Actually the issue of leading questions/preambles à la Panelbase & Yougov has some relevance to the referendum itself, and kind of encapsulates the arguments. The Yes campaign will be consistently asking voters to think about Scotland as a successful independent country and whether they trust Holyrood more than Westminister, while No will be emphasising the finality of separation from the UK. If nothing else it'll indicate what's working for the respective campaigns.

    But given that the campaign will be going on while these opinion polls are being done, surely the preamble is not necessary? It's not as if the pollsters find someone who has been living under a rock for the last 5 years and has no idea there was even an upcoming referendum.
    The unconscious is a wonderful thing. The most leathery political nerd may be susceptible to key words such as divorce, unknown, separation and uncertainty, or otoh trust, independence, successful and prosperity (and if they're not, it'll be interesting to measure how immune they are).
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    taffys said:

    a gratuitous slam at Welsh Rugby.

    Which one of the three slams we've won in the last nine years would that be?

    You'll see at around 8.30pm
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,056
    The previous Australian election seems like it took place about 5 minutes ago to me. It was actually held after the last UK general election.

    Last time ABC News Australia allowed global audiences to watch their election programme. Hopefully they'll do so again this time.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    Be still my beating heart. [ironically a leading cause of death north o' the border]
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    "But George Eaton is wrong in one important respect. This is not an example of how Labour is “turning the page”. Quite the opposite. It’s merely the latest example of how Labour steadfastly refuses move on from the Blair years, how it’s the Labour Left who cannot let their favourite bogeyman go, and how Ed Miliband still hasn’t come up with an effective way of defining himself, other than to say “remember that Tony Blair guy? Well, I’m not him”.

    Setting aside the pros and cons of intervention, the Syria debate is again showcasing Labour’s rush towards the swings and roundabouts of the political playground. “See. I told you Ed was right. Tony doesn’t like it, so Ed must have been right to like it. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.”

    But Syria is not just revealing the Left’s infantilisation. It is also exposing its intolerance..." >> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100234680/infantile-stuck-in-the-past-and-intolerant-of-debate-labour-is-trapped-in-a-tyranny-of-orthodoxy/
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,341
    edited September 2013
    SeanT said:

    Panelbase. A small furniture company from Forfar, with some bloke at the back who conducts occasional polls to finance his smack habit.

    It's not ICM, is it?

    But good enough for the Sunday Times.
    I can't remember where your gadfly opinions currently lie regarding Murdoch, but presumably you accept the ST is still a major newspaper.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Off topic, can we launch into the English Channel, via trebuchet the person who thought scheduling one day cricket matches in September was a good idea?

    As I had tickets for today and Sunday.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Plato said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
    That's going up tomorrow afternoon.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,056
    "Swedish migration authorities have ruled that all Syrian asylum seekers who have come to Sweden will be granted permanent residency in light of the worsening conflict in Syria."

    http://www.thelocal.se/50030/20130903/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SeanT said:

    Panelbase. A small furniture company from Forfar, with some bloke at the back who conducts occasional polls to finance his smack habit.

    It's not ICM, is it?

    But still good enough for the Sunday Times.
    I can't remember where your gadfly opinions currently lie regarding Murdoch, but presumably you accept the ST is still a major newspaper.

    I believe Sean is a travel writer for the Sunday Times.

    Jeez, a paper that commissions panelbase and SeanT. why do I subscribe to it?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Exciting though I find the Scottish referendum, today my thoughts keep turning back to the impending votes in Washington on strikes in Syria. If the House of Representatives is as opposed to military action as the ABC report suggests, Barack Obama is going to need an extraordinary turn-around to get a positive vote from here.

    A few thoughts:

    1) If the vote fails, will the precedent for seeking Congressional approval nevertheless have been set?
    2) How the hell is Barack Obama going to carry any credibility internationally if he has the rug pulled from under him by Congress? Or for that matter, domestically?
    3) Hillary Clinton must be hugging herself with glee at how good she is being made to look in retrospect.
  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    Andy_JS said:

    "Swedish migration authorities have ruled that all Syrian asylum seekers who have come to Sweden will be granted permanent residency in light of the worsening conflict in Syria."

    http://www.thelocal.se/50030/20130903/

    Has Ed sought asylum in Sweden yet?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    I really don't understand PB's apathy about the ScotRef. It's such a historic political event that could change everything and IMO far from a foregone conclusion.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
    That's going up tomorrow afternoon.
    So only a whole week after it appeared in Times. Well done.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    You'll see at around 8.30pm

    OOOh can't wait now TSE. The whole idea of having 'what's coming up' on threads is a very good one.

    Stay with us because coming up next on your super soaraway political betting......'
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Eagles, we can indeed.

    A trebuchet-based justice system would dramatically deter criminals, particularly those unable to swim.
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    I'll ask again, as this is a thread on Scottish related polling. Is anyone aware of any polling on what the result would be if the English where given a vote?

    I genuinely believe if Salmond wants an independent Scotland, giving the English a vote would be the way to guarantee the Yes vote, so it would be nice to see some polling to test my belief.

    Before anybody asks, yes I have tried to find out myself, but my Google Fu is sadly lacking in this case.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Jonathan, I suspect it's because it's been talked about rather a lot, yet it's still a long way off.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    antifrank said:

    Exciting though I find the Scottish referendum, today my thoughts keep turning back to the impending votes in Washington on strikes in Syria. If the House of Representatives is as opposed to military action as the ABC report suggests, Barack Obama is going to need an extraordinary turn-around to get a positive vote from here.

    A few thoughts:

    1) If the vote fails, will the precedent for seeking Congressional approval nevertheless have been set?
    2) How the hell is Barack Obama going to carry any credibility internationally if he has the rug pulled from under him by Congress? Or for that matter, domestically?
    3) Hillary Clinton must be hugging herself with glee at how good she is being made to look in retrospect.

    I have been wondering if any Senator voting yes to action in Syria and it turns into a disaster, will be ruled out of the Presidential Campaign?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,439
    Anorak said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    In exactly 54 weeks time we're going to have the result of the referendum.

    Just think of the indy ref threads between now and then
    Be still my beating heart. [ironically a leading cause of death north o' the border]
    I think that you will find that still hearts is a major cause, or at least indicator, of death everywhere.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,341
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SeanT said:

    Panelbase. A small furniture company from Forfar, with some bloke at the back who conducts occasional polls to finance his smack habit.

    It's not ICM, is it?

    But good enough for the Sunday Times.
    I can't remember where your gadfly opinions currently lie regarding Murdoch, but presumably you accept the ST is still a major newspaper.

    Dipsticks Research. No joke. Dipsticks Research. I feel a small blog coming on.
    .
    You've obviously done a bit of research on Dipsticks Research.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Jonathan said:

    I really don't understand PB's apathy about the ScotRef. It's such a historic political event that could change everything and IMO far from a foregone conclusion.

    I agree.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Saddened, I seem to recall it being written here a while ago that England was more pro-independence (for Scotland) than Scotland. Perversely, this may make Scotland less pro-independence.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    taffys said:

    You'll see at around 8.30pm

    OOOh can't wait now TSE. The whole idea of having 'what's coming up' on threads is a very good one.

    Stay with us because coming up next on your super soaraway political betting......'

    It maybe closer to 9pm
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,018
    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
    That's going up tomorrow afternoon.
    So only a whole week after it appeared in Times. Well done.
    The survey was carried out in May so it's hardly urgent.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    saddened said:

    I'll ask again, as this is a thread on Scottish related polling. Is anyone aware of any polling on what the result would be if the English where given a vote?

    I genuinely believe if Salmond wants an independent Scotland, giving the English a vote would be the way to guarantee the Yes vote, so it would be nice to see some polling to test my belief.

    Before anybody asks, yes I have tried to find out myself, but my Google Fu is sadly lacking in this case.

    Yes, from last year, and ICM poll

    A new opinion poll has painted a picture of a divided Britain – with Scottish voters rejecting independence for their country while English voters support i

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9015374/Britain-divided-over-Scottish-independence.html
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,018
    edited September 2013
    Andy_JS said:

    "Swedish migration authorities have ruled that all Syrian asylum seekers who have come to Sweden will be granted permanent residency in light of the worsening conflict in Syria."

    http://www.thelocal.se/50030/20130903/

    Strange, the Swedish authorities seem to have decided Syria is going to become a permanently failed state. Surely "residency until the Syrian situation sorts itself out" would be more sensible. But then Sweden has more room than we do.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,341
    edited September 2013
    saddened said:

    I'll ask again, as this is a thread on Scottish related polling. Is anyone aware of any polling on what the result would be if the English where given a vote?

    Jeez, just to stop you asking the same question interminably.

    http://tinyurl.com/735lpkj
    saddened said:

    I genuinely believe if Salmond wants an independent Scotland, giving the English a vote would be the way to guarantee the Yes vote, so it would be nice to see some polling to test my belief.

    How would Salmond do that then?

  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    Jonathan said:

    I really don't understand PB's apathy about the ScotRef. It's such a historic political event that could change everything and IMO far from a foregone conclusion.

    I think the problem is that the polling is "wrong".

    I would have expected poll leads For independence at this stage, when it is all fluffy and nice. Falling back when the No campaign brought reality to bear, and ultimately leading to a vote that (probably) preserved the status quo.

    Current (proper) polling points to a steady No result, and is therefore boring.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    edited September 2013
    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
    That's going up tomorrow afternoon.
    So only a whole week after it appeared in Times. Well done.
    Six days actually, and nearly four months after it was carried out

    Anyhoo, I got praised by Martin Boon of ICM no less during this stint as Editor.

    So nothing will ruin my mood.

    Do the PB Good and the great know if "smugger" is a word?

  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    antifrank said:

    Exciting though I find the Scottish referendum, today my thoughts keep turning back to the impending votes in Washington on strikes in Syria. If the House of Representatives is as opposed to military action as the ABC report suggests, Barack Obama is going to need an extraordinary turn-around to get a positive vote from here.

    A few thoughts:

    1) If the vote fails, will the precedent for seeking Congressional approval nevertheless have been set?
    2) How the hell is Barack Obama going to carry any credibility internationally if he has the rug pulled from under him by Congress? Or for that matter, domestically?
    3) Hillary Clinton must be hugging herself with glee at how good she is being made to look in retrospect.

    Obama seemed very depressed and sedated . I think Congress will vote against the Syrian strike and Obama will respect its will.
    The villians of this awful affair are principally Kerry and Hague. Both of whom should either resign or be sacked.

  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    saddened said:

    I'll ask again, as this is a thread on Scottish related polling. Is anyone aware of any polling on what the result would be if the English where given a vote?

    I genuinely believe if Salmond wants an independent Scotland, giving the English a vote would be the way to guarantee the Yes vote, so it would be nice to see some polling to test my belief.

    Before anybody asks, yes I have tried to find out myself, but my Google Fu is sadly lacking in this case.

    Yes, from last year, and ICM poll

    A new opinion poll has painted a picture of a divided Britain – with Scottish voters rejecting independence for their country while English voters support i

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9015374/Britain-divided-over-Scottish-independence.html
    TSE thanks for that. So it would appear that Salmond should give up on giving children the vote and aim to give the English a vote instead.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,439
    antifrank said:

    Exciting though I find the Scottish referendum, today my thoughts keep turning back to the impending votes in Washington on strikes in Syria. If the House of Representatives is as opposed to military action as the ABC report suggests, Barack Obama is going to need an extraordinary turn-around to get a positive vote from here.

    A few thoughts:

    1) If the vote fails, will the precedent for seeking Congressional approval nevertheless have been set?
    2) How the hell is Barack Obama going to carry any credibility internationally if he has the rug pulled from under him by Congress? Or for that matter, domestically?
    3) Hillary Clinton must be hugging herself with glee at how good she is being made to look in retrospect.

    If there is any truth in the Obama snubs Cameron story (and I have seen little evidence one way or another) might it be that Cameron set a precedent which Obama is having to live with which is going to be extremely tricky to say the very least?

    Obama losing this vote would (a) shatter his international standing and (b) set a precedent such that any future President not following it would risk impeachment.

    FWIW I think Obama will win in the Senate at least but he needs to win convincingly, not by the skin of his teeth if he is going to ignore the House.
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Antifrank

    He can talk. Boy, can he talk. But Obama is basically a bit of an Ed Miliband. A naive incompetent but arrogant wishywashy lefty community organiser with a chip on his shoulder a mile wide. Probably every single poster here on PB has a more mature and thought through foreign policy than Obama. His presidency is coming apart and the Dems and their voters can see very clearly what an utter gimp they have got themselves. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh were the implications of havong such an empty suit in the White House not so scary.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,018
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Anyhoo, I got praised by Martin Boon of ICM no less during this stint as Editor.

    So nothing will ruin my mood.

    Do the PB Good and the great know if "smugger" is a word?

    You should be OK, one-syllable adjectives generally have a comparative in -er. It's only when they get longer you have to use more... eg more insufferable.

  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh good. A Scotland thread.

    PB's editors have been too swamped to have one Lord Ashcroft's immigration poll at all!
    That's going up tomorrow afternoon.
    So only a whole week after it appeared in Times. Well done.
    Six days actually, and nearly four months after it was carried out

    Anyhoo, I got praised by Martin Boon of ICM no less during this stint as Editor.

    So nothing will ruin my mood.

    Do the PB Good and the great know if "smugger" is a word?

    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/smugger
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,056
    "If Abbott is elected, Australia's natural wonders will gradually be rubbed away

    Tony Abbott's climate policies are about removing the social and environmental protections enjoyed by all Australians to allow the filthy rich to become richer – and filthier":

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/05/abbott-climate-change-election
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,656
    Mr Lilburne/Next

    Thank you, it just didn't seem right
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Next said:

    Jonathan said:

    I really don't understand PB's apathy about the ScotRef. It's such a historic political event that could change everything and IMO far from a foregone conclusion.

    I think the problem is that the polling is "wrong".

    I would have expected poll leads For independence at this stage, when it is all fluffy and nice. Falling back when the No campaign brought reality to bear, and ultimately leading to a vote that (probably) preserved the status quo.

    Current (proper) polling points to a steady No result, and is therefore boring.
    We know from 2011 that Scottish politics can throw up surprises.

    Iain Gray will tell you polls are not everything.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,056
    "Tony Abbott to win Australian election, final polls show

    Tony Abbott, Australia's British-born opposition leader, is on the verge of a historic win in Saturday's national election, declaring he is "conscious of being on a great threshold".

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/10291450/Tony-Abbott-to-win-Australian-election-final-polls-show.html
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,020
    Andy_JS said:

    "If Abbott is elected, Australia's natural wonders will gradually be rubbed away

    Tony Abbott's climate policies are about removing the social and environmental protections enjoyed by all Australians to allow the filthy rich to become richer – and filthier":

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/05/abbott-climate-change-election

    I wonder if they orchestrated a letter-writing campaign. Hah!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,502
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mr Lilburne/Next

    Thank you, it just didn't seem right

    @TSE maybe you were just thinking of "Smeg-head"?

    :)
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2013
    Apols if this has already been posted, but this is a rather powerful video. A 22 year old American man confesses to causing death by drink driving, apologises to the victim's family, and appeals to the viewers not to drink and drive. It seems as if he probably would have been acquitted before he did this. Now facing up to 8 years porridge.

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/public/2013/09/05/man-uses-youtube-to-admit-to-drunk-driving-killing.html
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,017
    Mr. Eagles, I was AFK when you posed that question, but agree with the single syllable consensus.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,981
    When you think of all the things that could have happened to the US economy in 08/09/10 but didn't, the idea that Obama is "a naïve incompetent" is a bit far-fetched, to say the least.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    LOL - great ending

    David Cameron

    "Britain may be a #smallisland, but I would challenge anyone to find a country with a prouder history, a bigger heart or greater resilience.

    "Britain is an island that has helped to clear the European continent of fascism - and was resolute in doing that throughout World War Two.

    "Britain is an island that helped to abolish slavery, that has invented most of the things worth inventing, including every sport currently played around the world, that still today is responsible for art, literature and music that delights the entire world.

    "We are very proud of everything we do as a small island - a small island that has the sixth-largest economy, the fourth best-funded military, some of the most effective diplomats, the proudest history, one of the best records for art and literature and contribution to philosophy and world civilisation.

    "For the people who live in Northern Ireland, I should say we are not just an island, we are a collection of islands. I don't want anyone in Shetland or Orkney to feel left out by this.

    "I'm thinking of setting this to music..."

    David Cameron at #G20 Summit in Russia https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameron
  • Options
    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    SO

    Economically he has kept the USA's P&L account alive by destroying its balance sheet.
    Legislatively his only 'achievement' was the ACA (aka Obamacare) and how's that hopeychangey stuff working out for him?
    Foreign policy wrt to allies and enemies....don't even go there.

    History will not be kind to Obama.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Theuniondivvie said:

    What was most interesting to me re. prospect of Lab & Con governments was that a significant minority of SCon voters would vote Yes at the prospect of a Labour majority (I realise we're talking fairly tiddly numbers though).

    The effect is not uniform across the parties nor easily polled because it is also dependent on proximity.

    Your persistence in trying to put a case here is admirable but unnecessary due to the blatantly obvious nature of right wing spinning and right wing headbangers now utterly dominating this place.

    Expecting the likes of them to know anything about say, the McKay commission, the logistics of the referendum campaign on the ground or the dynamics of SLAB, 'united with labour' and the rest of 'better together' is stretching credulity well beyond breaking point.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Guido does Land of Hope and Glory :^ )

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LyRxOdGW4Ys
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2013
    Reading up about this Tony Abbott guy, it seems that UKIP is about to get its first world leader.
This discussion has been closed.