politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option

Has Comp Sci 101 class now ended?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Has Comp Sci 101 class now ended?

More entertaining than eurobollocks?

I would greatly appreciate if no more polls came out for the next six hours.

What's intriguing about the graphs is how accurate the trend lines are.

Of course, the other unspoken assumption is that a car is better than a goat.

david_herdson said:

What's intriguing about the graphs is how accurate the trend lines are.

The trend in opinion polls in this EU referendum is interesting:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

"Almost half of Labour supporters don’t know party backs EU"

Well its not like Jezza has been particularly keen to tell anybody....

david_herdson said:

What's intriguing about the graphs is how accurate the trend lines are.

For significant swings. The ScotRef is the only one where the polls showed a slight shift, and that was away from the end result.

perdix said:

Hedge Funds: parasites with no socially redeeming features. Should be taxed at 98%.

Given that you're such a fan of 1970s economic policy, presumably you like IMF bailouts, strikes and social disorder too?

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

What's intriguing about the graphs is how accurate the trend lines are.

The trend in opinion polls in this EU referendum is interesting:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

Yes. Interesting as in the odds are not at all near what that graph would suggest.

Trump is coming to his golf resort in Scotland on the 24th.

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

"Almost half of Labour supporters don’t know party backs EU"

Well its not like Jezza has been particularly keen to tell anybody....

BBC Norman Smith
Tom Watson says he wd not share a platform with the PM or Chancellor in EU referendum #wato

You'd want a double-reinforced platform if you were going to share it with Tom Watson.

Time for Cameron to promise cabinet jobs to Labour's remainers. Given we could be facing WW3 if we leave then surely a national government would make sense.

Casino_Royale said:

Remain doing well: settle this for a generation! The eurosceptics will be sidelined! They will have to shut up for good!

Remain doing badly: all Leavers are ignorant xenophobes and racists; I'm going to enjoy watch the economy collapse all around me.

Aren't Eurosceptics flagged for destruction and purging?

FPT

Richard_Nabavi said:

So why would any 'shy Labour' factor be one-sided?


Trying to put myself in the shoes of a life-long Labour supporter, brought up to believe that his instincts towards his fellow man are better than those of "the bloody Tories". Someone who hated Thatcher. But has also come to feel embarrassed hey voted for Blair. And (s)he is now faced with a Labour leader who they didn't vote for and was until very recently anti-EU, but who now seems to have a very lukewarm acceptance that we should Remain.

They are getting no effective guidance from the Labour Party.

Nigel Farage sets their teeth on edge. Bloody pub bore.

So if (s)he wants to vote in the Referendum, which set of Tories are they going to end up grudgingly siding with? They've always hated the Bullingdon Boys of Cameron and Osborne - they're as far from their own personal understanding of the Working Man as you could get. He doesn't warm to Gove either - has some unformed memory that he was trying to do something bad to schools. He's not sure about Boris, but his antagonism isn't provoked by him. And London seemed to do alright when he took over from Livingstone.

He doesn't have strong views on the EU itself. He holidays in Spain, maybe even has a dream of retiring there in a few years. But he has worries that the EU is run by people just as elitist and distant as the Tories. And bleeds money away to places that don't ever get round to including his home town.

And even though it goes against the grain of their upbringing - he has doubts about immigration. Doubts about the changes he is seeing in his working-class neighbourhood. Worries about pressures on housing, on schools, on the NHS. He feels bad about it, but by doing nothing to change it, is he failing his own kids? The TUC says that the EU protects workers rights. And as a lifelong Union member, they carry some sway. But - niggling doubt - isn't it just as likely that those EU protections are helping a Pole or a Romanian get a job one of his kids could have been doing?

So this person is deeply conflicted, doesn't want to think they may be reacting to base human instincts. God forbid anybody might think them a racist. But on a cool, clinical assessment, they are maybe looking after their own and their family's interests by having the UK look after the UK.

Now, I would suggest there are a significant number of Labour voters for whom at least some of these points would resonate. They still aren't quite sure how they will vote, but if it is to be Leave, it won't be something they will admit to. Certainly not something to admit to a polling organisation. Nor colleagues. Maybe not even to the family. They'll vote Leave, feel a little bit dirty about it, but convince themselves in their quiet moments that it's the right thing to do, on a purely selfish level. And that seems a bit, Tory - and they feel a bit dirtier about the whole bloody process.

Hi I'm thinking ofgoing canvassing for Leave in Finchley. HAs anyone here done this before!? What does it involve? what is it like?

edmundintokyo said:

I'd read it the other way. Labour voters who haven't tuned in yet don't know which side their tribe is on. That'll give Remain a boost if and when they work it out.

You're right, I was being too pessimistic on Remain's behalf.

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

What's intriguing about the graphs is how accurate the trend lines are.

The trend in opinion polls in this EU referendum is interesting:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

The Undecideds breaking totally for Leave goes against everything we thought we knew....

FrancisUrquhart said:

Like a REMAIN scare story vs Daily Mash headline, I can't work out if ScottP is trolling, trying to be clever dick over somebodies inaccurate wording of the original problem or genuinely trying to state that basically the solution to this problem as taught on most undergraduate STEM subjects around the world is wrong and he is right.

Isn't it the old internet problem, no one can admit they are wrong.

Except me, I mean, I never make mistakes, that's unpossible.

williamglenn said:

What's the fourth outcome?

In line 1 it says the car is behind door 1, you pick door 1, and lose if you switch

The missing bit is you lose if Monty opens door 2 (game 1) and you lose if Monty opens door 3 (game 2)

Those are independent outcomes, so the probabilities need to be assessed independently

So 2 games you lose, and 2 games you win

50% chance either way, switch or not

Donald Trump to visit UK on day of EU referendum result

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/01/donald-trump-announces-uk-visit-turnberry-golf-resort-britain

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Like a REMAIN scare story vs Daily Mash headline, I can't work out if ScottP is trolling, trying to be clever dick over somebodies inaccurate wording of the original problem or genuinely trying to state that basically the solution to this problem as taught on most undergraduate STEM subjects around the world is wrong and he is right.

Isn't it the old internet problem, no one can admit they are wrong.

Except me, I mean, I never make mistakes, that's unpossible.

SHOUTY MC-SHOUTY face comes to mind for some reason. I am sure he is sitting in his house screaming, IT IS A HIT, IT IS A HIT, EVERYBODY LOVES NEW TOP GEAR, EVERYBODY LOVES ME AS THE NEW HOST....

David_Evershed said:

The UK has a massive balance of trade deficit because its exports are not sufficiently competitive and imports are cheap.

The traditional way to correct the position is to devalue the currency, making exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

The only downside would normally be the increase in inflation due to highjer inport costs. However, when inflation is 0.3% and target inflation is 2%, any fall in sterling just helps to raise inflation to target.

So a fall in the sterling exchange rate should surely be welcomed by economists and the government?

The "thing" that correlates best with trade deficit (or surplus) is savings rate. So,

Germany, China, Switzerland: very high savings rates, balance of payment surpluses
UK, US, and lately Spain: very low savings rates, balance of payments deficit

If you chart all the countries in the world, the correlation is remarkably strong. In other words, it's not that we do not export enough, but that we consume too much. And the easiest way of changing that is to move our savings rate from 4-6% (where it is today, and which is among the worst in the world), to 10-12% where we would be running a balance of payments surplus.

It's worth noting that a low savings rate means the cost of capital is elevated for business who want to invest. (The bank can lend to you or a business, your desire to borrow to spend crowds out the business who needs the loan to invest in productive capacity.)

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

What's the fourth outcome?

In line 1 it says the car is behind door 1, you pick door 1, and lose if you switch

The missing bit is you lose if Monty opens door 2 (game 1) and you lose if Monty opens door 3 (game 2)

Those are independent outcomes, so the probabilities need to be assessed independently

So 2 games you lose, and 2 games you win

50% chance either way, switch or not

They're not independent. In game 2 and 3 there is a 100% chance of the host opening the door he opens. In game 1 there is a 50% chance of each.

nunu said:

Hi I'm thinking ofgoing canvassing for Leave in Finchley. HAs anyone here done this before!? What does it involve? what is it like?

On canvassing generally, know your way around a few arguments first (if you've been reading pb.com, you should be fine!). Nothing worse than having to admit you know bugger all about why it would be great to Leave.

That said, canvassing is a superb insight into the human condition. And in the process, people will endlessly surprise you.

Plus, you get to see HOW people live. The love they put into their gardens (or their three rusting Minis), the intimacies of their diet revealed in their recycling, the state of their paintwork, the Christmas decorations still up in May, the number of toys on the lawn in inverse proportion to the wealth of the occupants, the smells wafting out (some great cooking smells, some worrying smells of human decomposition...). You get to meet some remarkable people (somebody who was encrypting the D-Day commands, an old gent from the Valleys who used to play piano for the silent moves, somebody claiming they are the Labour candidate and of course they won't be voting for you - all manner of the weird and wonderful is there to meet in a way you never will otherwise).

Anybody who wants to write should spend 20 years doing canvassing first.

Cyclefree said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder how much is a bottling factor?

Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)

Yes. I'd love to think LEAVE is is heading for victory, as the polls imply, but I foresee a swingback on the day of battle.

Saying you're a LEAVE voter now is a cost-free way of sticking to the man, and putting the wind up David Cameron, and all his smirking Establishment chums and their ghastly luvvy colleagues. And it's working: they are panicking, check the pb REMAINIANS on the last thread.

Voting LEAVE on the day is a different thing entirely. Your estimate of 5-10% bottlers seems about right to me, and will deliver a narrow REMAIN "triumph".

The questions then become:-

1. How big will the Leave vote be?

And

2. If it is a narrow Remain win, how - if at all - will this affect the attitude of the UK Government and the EU and EU states to Britain's role within the EU?

I may do a thread on this.

A really narrow Remain win - where England votes to Leave - is certainly worthy of a thread! All constitutional hell breaks out, I would suggest...

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now that we've done Monty Hall, here's another probability-related question.

If the odds to back D. Trump becoming Republican nominee are 1.03, and the odds to back a Republican winning the presidency are 3.30, what would you expect the odds to back D. Trump winning the presidency should be?

Please show your workings.

The implication of the odds is that there's a small, but non-zero probability Trump wins the nomination but a different republican wins in November.

I am reminded of Ken and digging for Australia for some reason....

SouthamObserver said:

Cyclefree said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder how much is a bottling factor?

Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)

Yes. I'd love to think LEAVE is is heading for victory, as the polls imply, but I foresee a swingback on the day of battle.

Saying you're a LEAVE voter now is a cost-free way of sticking to the man, and putting the wind up David Cameron, and all his smirking Establishment chums and their ghastly luvvy colleagues. And it's working: they are panicking, check the pb REMAINIANS on the last thread.

Voting LEAVE on the day is a different thing entirely. Your estimate of 5-10% bottlers seems about right to me, and will deliver a narrow REMAIN "triumph".

The questions then become:-

1. How big will the Leave vote be?

And

2. If it is a narrow Remain win, how - if at all - will this affect the attitude of the UK Government and the EU and EU states to Britain's role within the EU?

I may do a thread on this.

If the EU does not take on the lessons of this referendum after a narrow Remain win (can there be any other now?) then there will be another referendum very soon and Leave will win handsomely. It would be a big mistake to essentially do what Cameron did the day after the Scottish referendum.

If the EU does not understand that the UK will only be a member on certain terms then there is no hope for a on-going long-term relationship.

I think / fear that they either do not understand it or will not understand it or, even if they do, think that since the Remain side has won a referendum which they probably think should never have been held in the first place, that we have had our say and should now shut up.

I tend to agree that this will store up further problems for the future but I do not get any sense from what I read of EU reaction to the referendum that they are willing to make any effort to understand - let alone accommodate - Britain's view. And, from their perspective, why should they? They have far bigger problems to deal with in the short and medium terms.

MarqueeMark said:

nunu said:

Hi I'm thinking ofgoing canvassing for Leave in Finchley. HAs anyone here done this before!? What does it involve? what is it like?

On canvassing generally, know your way around a few arguments first (if you've been reading pb.com, you should be fine!). Nothing worse than having to admit you know bugger all about why it would be great to Leave.

That said, canvassing is a superb insight into the human condition. And in the process, people will endlessly surprise you.

Plus, you get to see HOW people live. The love they put into their gardens (or their three rusting Minis), the intimacies of their diet revealed in their recycling, the state of their paintwork, the Christmas decorations still up in May, the number of toys on the lawn in inverse proportion to the wealth of the occupants, the smells wafting out (some great cooking smells, some worrying smells of human decomposition...). You get to meet some remarkable people (somebody who was encrypting the D-Day commands, an old gent from the Valleys who used to play piano for the silent moves, somebody claiming they are the Labour candidate and of course they won't be voting for you - all manner of the weird and wonderful is there to meet in a way you never will otherwise).

Anybody who wants to write should spend 20 years doing canvassing first.

Very good, evocative description of the charms of canvassing. I'd only add that 95% of people won't want to discuss it at all, and certainly won't ask you searching questions. They'll say yes, no, or dunno, smile amiably and shut the door. Of the 5% who want to discuss it, at least half are opponents seeking to waste your time - with practice you learn to spot the signs. But the remaining 2.5% are good fun, and occasionally you persuade one.

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder how much is a bottling factor?

Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)

Perversely I think it helps Remain if Leave still seem to be in with a good chance of winning by 23rd June.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am reminded of Ken and digging for Australia for some reason....

Actually, New Zealand!

The antipode to London is somewhere to the southeast of South Island, NZ.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/every-pro-eu-argument-boils-down-to-you-cant-trust-the-plebs/

williamglenn said:

To get to your four outcomes you start with a 1/3 choice from the player, then a choice by the host, which is 1/2 in games 1 and 2, and 1/1 in games 3 and 4.

No

Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.

This is the key.

You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.

There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat

There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.

Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win

Casino_Royale said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/every-pro-eu-argument-boils-down-to-you-cant-trust-the-plebs/

Any time we enter into a Treaty commitment, we are basically saying "we can't trust plebs down the road." Heck, even entering into NATO Is saying that.

Scott_P said:

To get to your four outcomes you start with a 1/3 choice from the player, then a choice by the host, which is 1/2 in games 1 and 2, and 1/1 in games 3 and 4.

No

Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.

This is the key.

You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.

There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat

There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.

Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win

is this to recommend that we should vote remain in the first referendum, but then when Junker asks if we want to switch we should vote leave?

(or does nobody believe wikipedia or the other 1000 sites that explain this not so interesting problem)

Good afternoon, everyone.

I do wonder if this is the most party political of the recent referendum votes. I know the SNP and Yes had massive overlap, but the No side was split between multiple parties. In this referendum, it's very much a Conservative show.

doh. failed at the quoting there

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

To get to your four outcomes you start with a 1/3 choice from the player, then a choice by the host, which is 1/2 in games 1 and 2, and 1/1 in games 3 and 4.

No

Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.

This is the key.

You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.

There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat

There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.

Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win

No the 4 possible outcomes are NOT equally likely.

They have the following odds each:
1/6
1/6
1/3
1/3

@Scott_P Do you apply this logic to the nags too ?

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/every-pro-eu-argument-boils-down-to-you-cant-trust-the-plebs/

Any time we enter into a Treaty commitment, we are basically saying "we can't trust plebs down the road." Heck, even entering into NATO Is saying that.

O'Neill nails it, I think.

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

williamglenn said:

To get to your four outcomes you start with a 1/3 choice from the player, then a choice by the host, which is 1/2 in games 1 and 2, and 1/1 in games 3 and 4.

No

Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.

This is the key.

You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.

There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat

There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.

Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win

No the 4 possible outcomes are NOT equally likely.

They have the following odds each:
1/6
1/6
1/3
1/3

Give the lad a gold star...ScottP stay behind for extra tuition...

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

@Scott_P Do you apply this logic to the nags too ?

Have you followed my "tips"?

Sometimes I follow you in
Sometimes

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Now that we've done Monty Hall, here's another probability-related question.

If the odds to back D. Trump becoming Republican nominee are 1.03, and the odds to back a Republican winning the presidency are 3.30, what would you expect the odds to back D. Trump winning the presidency should be?

Please show your workings.

Depends if Trump's odds of winning the presidency given the nomination are the same as not-Trump's.

True, but with a 97% probability of Trump getting the nomination, it would have to be one mega-humungous discrepancy to make much difference to the final answer.

There are a couple of other assumptions factoring into the GOP price - namely his opponent will be Hillary and not AN Other Democrat (Which would cause the GOP price to drift). But if you assume the GOP price is correct then the implied Trump presidency price must be correct.

I make it astronomical odds he wins the presidency as an independent (Around 330,000-1 off the bag of a fag packet) (Mainly due to missing filing deadlines) - so you don't really need to factor that in.

What you do need to factor in is a serious medical event/death, the morbidity tables give a 2.38% chance for a 70 year old man in a year - so perhaps halve it and subtract 0.38 to give 1% chance morbidity for Trump (He seems in good enough health).

However he could always be assassinated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

Bearing in mind his colour and campaign, you'll probably want an extra 3% for that... (Finger in air guess ?)

So 1.03 * 3.30 * 1.04 = 3.53 maybe ?

Not just Trump. Hillary and Sanders (and Biden) are also eligible for free bus passes. What are the chances one dies of old age and we spend the next 50 years arguing whether the CIA or mafia did them in?

NickPalmer said:

Enjoyed Richard N's perceptive analysis of the thought process of a Leave-leaning hardcore Labour voter - I'm sure he's spot on in some cases.

But as EiT points out, there is probably some slack for Remain to pick up among Labour voters who haven't yet picked up the party position on this. I doubt if that will still be true by the time of voting.

I think that there are good numbers of Shy Remainers too. Leavers can be very "in your face" so easy to nod and slide towards the exit.

The header suggests a tendency to the status quo, but my caveat is that I think some will see Leave as the status quo. I mean that one theme that I get from Leavers here and elsewhere is that they do not like the way the country has changed, and I think Leave is often seen as a vote against change.

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder how much is a bottling factor?

Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)

Yes. I'd love to think LEAVE is is heading for victory, as the polls imply, but I foresee a swingback on the day of battle.

Saying you're a LEAVE voter now is a cost-free way of sticking to the man, and putting the wind up David Cameron, and all his smirking Establishment chums and their ghastly luvvy colleagues. And it's working: they are panicking, check the pb REMAINIANS on the last thread.

Voting LEAVE on the day is a different thing entirely. Your estimate of 5-10% bottlers seems about right to me, and will deliver a narrow REMAIN "triumph".

The questions then become:-

1. How big will the Leave vote be?

And

2. If it is a narrow Remain win, how - if at all - will this affect the attitude of the UK Government and the EU and EU states to Britain's role within the EU?

I may do a thread on this.

A really narrow Remain win - where England votes to Leave - is certainly worthy of a thread! All constitutional hell breaks out, I would suggest...

As noted by @chestnut FPT, all regions bar London and Scotland are for Leave in YouGov.

What about Northern Ireland in YouGov? I can see Wales / Midlands.

Jobabob said:

The Labour figure is another shocking indictment of Corbyn's lousy leadership. He has been near useless in this campaign and should kindly leave the stage (if he was ever on it).

Please explain your view on how he got the leadership in the first place.

PlatoSaid said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder how much is a bottling factor?

Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)

Yes. I'd love to think LEAVE is is heading for victory, as the polls imply, but I foresee a swingback on the day of battle.

Saying you're a LEAVE voter now is a cost-free way of sticking to the man, and putting the wind up David Cameron, and all his smirking Establishment chums and their ghastly luvvy colleagues. And it's working: they are panicking, check the pb REMAINIANS on the last thread.

Voting LEAVE on the day is a different thing entirely. Your estimate of 5-10% bottlers seems about right to me, and will deliver a narrow REMAIN "triumph".

The questions then become:-

1. How big will the Leave vote be?

And

2. If it is a narrow Remain win, how - if at all - will this affect the attitude of the UK Government and the EU and EU states to Britain's role within the EU?

I may do a thread on this.

A really narrow Remain win - where England votes to Leave - is certainly worthy of a thread! All constitutional hell breaks out, I would suggest...

As noted by @chestnut FPT, all regions bar London and Scotland are for Leave in YouGov.

Presumably they didn't poll NI.