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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In past referenda polls tend to overstate the change option and EU referendum round up
We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there was more than one poll in the final 30 days of the campaign.
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https://twitter.com/numberphile/status/634113819019771904
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#/media/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
Awesome book, awesome film too
Well its not like Jezza has been particularly keen to tell anybody....
Could be bigger this time. I have visions of 5-10% of Brexiters bottling it in the polling booth and either spoiling their ballots, double voting or going for Remain (but never admitting this tawdry affair to anyone, ever)
@andrew_lilico: @TSEofPB @StephenDFisher I'm not saying such analysis doesn't have a place, but we can infer little to nothing robust from a sample of 10.
An Irishman of Note,
Fell into a fortune,
and bought himself a goat,
Said he sure of goats milk,
Im going to have my fill,
But when he got the nanny home,
He found it was a bill.
I'll get my coat....
Remain doing badly: all Leavers are ignorant xenophobes and racists; I'm going to enjoy watch the economy collapse all around me.
That demonstrates precisely how wrong the 1/3 answer is.
Although the car can only be in 1 of 3 places, there are 4 game outcomes. In 2 you win, in 2 you lose.
50% chance
Tom Watson says he wd not share a platform with the PM or Chancellor in EU referendum #wato
I did try and warn him (he's a clear Remainer) but he wasn't really listening.
What we do know is that this isn't going to the plan of the Remainers, which is delicious.
They were expecting to win clearly by 60+%
Still possible, of course, but looking increasingly unlikely.
If the odds to back D. Trump becoming Republican nominee are 1.03, and the odds to back a Republican winning the presidency are 3.30, what would you expect the odds to back D. Trump winning the presidency should be?
Please show your workings.
Richard_Nabavi said:
So why would any 'shy Labour' factor be one-sided?
Trying to put myself in the shoes of a life-long Labour supporter, brought up to believe that his instincts towards his fellow man are better than those of "the bloody Tories". Someone who hated Thatcher. But has also come to feel embarrassed hey voted for Blair. And (s)he is now faced with a Labour leader who they didn't vote for and was until very recently anti-EU, but who now seems to have a very lukewarm acceptance that we should Remain.
They are getting no effective guidance from the Labour Party.
Nigel Farage sets their teeth on edge. Bloody pub bore.
So if (s)he wants to vote in the Referendum, which set of Tories are they going to end up grudgingly siding with? They've always hated the Bullingdon Boys of Cameron and Osborne - they're as far from their own personal understanding of the Working Man as you could get. He doesn't warm to Gove either - has some unformed memory that he was trying to do something bad to schools. He's not sure about Boris, but his antagonism isn't provoked by him. And London seemed to do alright when he took over from Livingstone.
He doesn't have strong views on the EU itself. He holidays in Spain, maybe even has a dream of retiring there in a few years. But he has worries that the EU is run by people just as elitist and distant as the Tories. And bleeds money away to places that don't ever get round to including his home town.
And even though it goes against the grain of their upbringing - he has doubts about immigration. Doubts about the changes he is seeing in his working-class neighbourhood. Worries about pressures on housing, on schools, on the NHS. He feels bad about it, but by doing nothing to change it, is he failing his own kids? The TUC says that the EU protects workers rights. And as a lifelong Union member, they carry some sway. But - niggling doubt - isn't it just as likely that those EU protections are helping a Pole or a Romanian get a job one of his kids could have been doing?
So this person is deeply conflicted, doesn't want to think they may be reacting to base human instincts. God forbid anybody might think them a racist. But on a cool, clinical assessment, they are maybe looking after their own and their family's interests by having the UK look after the UK.
Now, I would suggest there are a significant number of Labour voters for whom at least some of these points would resonate. They still aren't quite sure how they will vote, but if it is to be Leave, it won't be something they will admit to. Certainly not something to admit to a polling organisation. Nor colleagues. Maybe not even to the family. They'll vote Leave, feel a little bit dirty about it, but convince themselves in their quiet moments that it's the right thing to do, on a purely selfish level. And that seems a bit, Tory - and they feel a bit dirtier about the whole bloody process.
Except me, I mean, I never make mistakes, that's unpossible.
The missing bit is you lose if Monty opens door 2 (game 1) and you lose if Monty opens door 3 (game 2)
Those are independent outcomes, so the probabilities need to be assessed independently
So 2 games you lose, and 2 games you win
50% chance either way, switch or not
1. How big will the Leave vote be?
And
2. If it is a narrow Remain win, how - if at all - will this affect the attitude of the UK Government and the EU and EU states to Britain's role within the EU?
I may do a thread on this.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/01/donald-trump-announces-uk-visit-turnberry-golf-resort-britain
Germany, China, Switzerland: very high savings rates, balance of payment surpluses
UK, US, and lately Spain: very low savings rates, balance of payments deficit
If you chart all the countries in the world, the correlation is remarkably strong. In other words, it's not that we do not export enough, but that we consume too much. And the easiest way of changing that is to move our savings rate from 4-6% (where it is today, and which is among the worst in the world), to 10-12% where we would be running a balance of payments surplus.
It's worth noting that a low savings rate means the cost of capital is elevated for business who want to invest. (The bank can lend to you or a business, your desire to borrow to spend crowds out the business who needs the loan to invest in productive capacity.)
If the EU does not understand that the UK will only be a member on certain terms then there is no hope for a on-going long-term relationship.
That said, canvassing is a superb insight into the human condition. And in the process, people will endlessly surprise you.
Plus, you get to see HOW people live. The love they put into their gardens (or their three rusting Minis), the intimacies of their diet revealed in their recycling, the state of their paintwork, the Christmas decorations still up in May, the number of toys on the lawn in inverse proportion to the wealth of the occupants, the smells wafting out (some great cooking smells, some worrying smells of human decomposition...). You get to meet some remarkable people (somebody who was encrypting the D-Day commands, an old gent from the Valleys who used to play piano for the silent moves, somebody claiming they are the Labour candidate and of course they won't be voting for you - all manner of the weird and wonderful is there to meet in a way you never will otherwise).
Anybody who wants to write should spend 20 years doing canvassing first.
A stated ad nauseum on the previous thread, there is 100% chance of the host opening a door with a goat.
In game 1 he opens a door with a goat, you switch you lose
In game 2, with the car in the same place, and the same pick, the host opens a (different) door with a goat, you switch you lose.
In game 3, he opens a door with a goat, you switch you win
In game 4, he opens a door with a goat, you switch you win
So 4 games, 4 independent outcomes, 50% chance
Sunil J. PrasannanDonald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of EU Directives entering UK Law, until the Great British Public's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!"I tend to agree that this will store up further problems for the future but I do not get any sense from what I read of EU reaction to the referendum that they are willing to make any effort to understand - let alone accommodate - Britain's view. And, from their perspective, why should they? They have far bigger problems to deal with in the short and medium terms.
To get to your four outcomes you start with a 1/3 choice from the player, then a choice by the host, which is 1/2 in games 1 and 2, and 1/1 in games 3 and 4.
Outcome 1 (1/3 chance) you originally chose Ace of Spades. Monty is forced (100%) to reveal Ace of Clubs. Switching wins.
Outcome 2 (1/3 chance) you originally chose Ace of Clubs. Monty is forced (100%) to reveal Ace of Spades. Switching wins.
Outcome 3 (1/3 chance) you originally chose Ace of Diamonds. Monty has two possibilities (50% each) and chose Spades. Total chance is 1/6 chance and switching loses.
Outcome 4 As above but the remaining 50% of the third of the time you chose Diamonds. Switching loses a further 1/6.
May be more helpful to think of 3 and 4 as 3a and 3b as they are a subset of a third of the time.
I make it astronomical odds he wins the presidency as an independent (Around 330,000-1 off the bag of a fag packet) (Mainly due to missing filing deadlines) - so you don't really need to factor that in.
What you do need to factor in is a serious medical event/death, the morbidity tables give a 2.38% chance for a 70 year old man in a year - so perhaps halve it and subtract 0.38 to give 1% chance morbidity for Trump (He seems in good enough health).
However he could always be assassinated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots
Bearing in mind his colour and campaign, you'll probably want an extra 3% for that... (Finger in air guess ?)
So 1.03 * 3.30 * 1.04 = 3.53 maybe ?
The antipode to London is somewhere to the southeast of South Island, NZ.
Vice doc on Corbyn is compelling car crash TV. He comes across as extremely full of himself but quite dim with a temper.
Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.
This is the key.
You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.
There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat
There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
But as EiT points out, there is probably some slack for Remain to pick up among Labour voters who haven't yet picked up the party position on this. I doubt if that will still be true by the time of voting.
The temper does show through and also the paranoia that every single person in the media is out to get him, and that rather than try to get him message out just to shut them off. I can't see how he will last 4-6 weeks of a GE campaign if he gets really angry with a sympathetic VICE documentary maker asking one hard-ish question.
Again, there is 100% chance of the host picking a goat.
This is the key.
You are getting confused by the number and order of the doors.
There are only 2 choices for the Guest, car or goat
There are 4 possible outcomes, each of which is equally likely.
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks car, host picks goat, switch lose
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
Guest picks goat, host picks goat, switch win
is this to recommend that we should vote remain in the first referendum, but then when Junker asks if we want to switch we should vote leave?
(or does nobody believe wikipedia or the other 1000 sites that explain this not so interesting problem)
I do wonder if this is the most party political of the recent referendum votes. I know the SNP and Yes had massive overlap, but the No side was split between multiple parties. In this referendum, it's very much a Conservative show.
They have the following odds each:
1/6
1/6
1/3
1/3
Sometimes
Repeat the same thing 1000 times...
Trusting the people is a wonderful saying but more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
The header suggests a tendency to the status quo, but my caveat is that I think some will see Leave as the status quo. I mean that one theme that I get from Leavers here and elsewhere is that they do not like the way the country has changed, and I think Leave is often seen as a vote against change.
Here's the simplest explanation I can do.
We're going to work out the probability of getting the car if you switch. There are two cases. First, you may have chosen the door with the car in the first place. There's a 1/3 probability you did. If you switch, obviously you won't get the car. Second, you could have chosen a door with a goat. The host opens another door with a goat behind it, so the remaining door must have the car. Now if you switch, you must get the car. Adding up the probabilities, we get (1/3 x 0) + (2/3 x 1), a 2/3 probability of getting the car.
If you don't switch, nothing that happens later matters: your probability of getting the car is 1/3.
Even some professional mathematicians (although not probabilists, AFAIK) have got this wrong.
You aren't the first or the last to get it totally wrong, the women with the highest IQ in the world was fooled by it for a while too.