politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are getting to a point where LEAVE could be the value be

Plato_Says said:

" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.

...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz49y6w2bUJ

HYUFD said:

As I said the Tories now do stand in Ulster anyway (you could also make a case Labour and the LDs do through their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance) but leaving that aside the point remains the Tories, the LDs, UKIP and Labour all stand in well over 90% of the UK, the SNP less than 10% of the UK on no plausible definition could a party which stands in less than 10% of a country ever be considered its third party!

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

Yes, I understand their MPs are clearly superior by dint of coming from Scotland but I don't understand how that helps your argument.

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.

The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls

But they win 5-8 times as many seats.

Almost all online polls overstating UKIP.

I doubt at the next election they will be winning 5-8 times as many seats as UKIP

It will be infinity as UKIP wont win any at the next GE

Alistair said:

David_Evershed said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

Vote share at the 2015 General Election was

Con 36.9%
Lab 30.4%
UKIP 12.6%
LibD 7.9%
SNP 4.7%
Green 3.8%

So the SNP were a poor fifth in the UK.

They gave the other parties a chance by only standing in 59 seats. Imagine what would happen if they stood UK wide?

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.

Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.

Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation.

I know the HYUFD red mist of stubborness has now descended wherein facts mean little, but it's actually 8.3%.

I said a little over 5%, 8.3% really does little to change the argument!

Plato_Says said:

AFP
#BREAKING Lightning strikes German football pitch, 35 injured, 3 seriously

RodCrosby said:

Plato_Says said:

" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.

...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz49y6w2bUJ

And Trump is energetic, unpredictable, clever, exciting, straight-talking, a master of the mind-f**k, who will create some momentum with a surprising but reassuring VP pick, whereas tired has-been Clinton will struggle on, ball-and-chained by her unsavoury history, in an election she thought was hers by right...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:

AFP
#BREAKING Lightning strikes German football pitch, 35 injured, 3 seriously

Apparently a load of kids have been struck in Paris as well, with 6 seriously injured.

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party

UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .

UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote

Dream On

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indigo said:

No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.

Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.

Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win

If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.

Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.

Next to zero chance of that, if, as is most likely, the referendum is a narrow Remain I can see a result something like Tories 33%, Labour 31%, UKIP 17% in 2020. That would be a swing of 4% from Tory to UKIP and 2% from Labour to UKIP and would see them win Thurrock and Thanet South and come close in Hartlepool and Boston

initforthemoney said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party

UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .

UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote

Dream On

With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato_Says said:

AFP
#BREAKING Lightning strikes German football pitch, 35 injured, 3 seriously

Apparently a load of kids have been struck in Paris as well, with 6 seriously injured.

Big storms right across Europe today, it looks like.

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

initforthemoney said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party

UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .

UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote

Dream On

With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible

102 UKIP MPs?

Now where did I hear that before?

On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

All publicly funded scientific papers published in Europe could be made free to access by 2020, under a “life-changing” reform ordered by the European Union’s science chief, Carlos Moedas.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/28/eu-ministers-2020-target-free-access-scientific-papers

How do you deal with a situation where a study was part publicly funded? It's somewhat moot (not surprising for the EU) given the popularity of arXiv, at least in some sciences.

RobD said:

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/

RobD said:

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

initforthemoney said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK

They are also the third party at Westminster.

Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK

Philip_Thompson said:

As opposed to UKIP who do not have an MP in 99.85% of the UK?

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/

'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'

http://tinyurl.com/zz56h9q

Just the one poll? Striking difference though.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

initforthemoney said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK

They are also the third party at Westminster.

Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK

As opposed to UKIP who do not have an MP in 99.85% of the UK?

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party

UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .

UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote

Dream On

With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible

102 UKIP MPs?

Now where did I hear that before?

On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.

I never said they would get 102, 3 to 5 is more likely but that would at least be treble their present score. The key difference in 2015 to 2020 is that anti EU voters had to vote Tory to get the referendum, if the referendum is lost because of the Tory leadership they will have no qualms about voting UKIP in 2020 to maximise the pressure for another referendum

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/

'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'

http://tinyurl.com/zz56h9q

Thanks.

That polling should help boost Leave in England.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

MarkSenior said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

PClipp said:

First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party

UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .

UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote

Dream On

With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible

102 UKIP MPs?

Now where did I hear that before?

On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even bette

It was MikeK's prediction of 102.

I predicted 2 UKIP MPs last time around, though did well betting in UKIP target seats by backing the opponent.

I think that UKIP will struggle to get more than the odd seat under FPTP. There are simply not enough votes in the policies that they favour.

If Leave fail to win but win 45%+ of the vote that is a very large pool of voters for their core platform, even if only 40% of them vote UKIP that is still 18%

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

initforthemoney said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)

But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.

Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!

Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/

'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'

http://tinyurl.com/zz56h9q

Just the one poll? Striking difference though.

Of course it is also possible the UK votes Remain but England votes Leave

That is going to make England a touch difficult to govern, Mr Cameron.... Scotland, Wales and NI can pay our membership subs.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare

Which matters how?

Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.

As it shows they are the third party in the UK and I cannot see the pro EU LDs overtaking them after the referendum

foxinsoxuk said:

@HYUFD

If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.

In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.

Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare

Which matters how?

Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.

SandyRentool said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare

Which matters how?

Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.

You think that they'll overtake either Labour or the Conservatives?

MonikerDiCanio said:

Wanderer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

PAW said:

Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.

Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.

I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place

Right-wingers who affect a concern for what they call the "WWC" tend to subject working class people to the tyranny of low expectations and imagine that to be working class is to be a bovine racist, so they think opposing bovine racism is opposing the working class.

Bovine racism;
https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_races_bovines

JackW said:

BTW for PBers new to US elections the site below is a very simple tool for building your own electoral college :

http://www.270towin.com/

Philip_Thompson said:

SandyRentool said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare

Which matters how?

Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.

You think that they'll overtake either Labour or the Conservatives?

No I think they'll fall (even further) behind the fourth placed Lib Dems.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SandyRentool said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare

Which matters how?

Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.

You think that they'll overtake either Labour or the Conservatives?

No I think they'll fall (even further) behind the fourth placed Lib Dems.

UKIP were 5% ahead of the LDs in the popular vote at the last election

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

Sean_F said:

UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

LOL , 8 beats 56 , counting lessons needed methinks.

I never said the LDs were third, UKIP were third in voteshare in 2015 on 12.7%, the LDs were fourth on 7.9% and the SNP fifth on 4.7%