First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals. Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls
But they win 5-8 times as many seats.
Almost all online polls overstating UKIP.
I doubt at the next election they will be winning 5-8 times as many seats as UKIP
It will be infinity as UKIP wont win any at the next GE
In the event of Leave UKIP will disappear, job done, in the event of Remain it will reinvent itself under a different name. As it stands it is skint, with no real structure and split into two camps. But that doesn't mean the country doesn't need a 3rd party, one will evolve in some shape or form.
" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.
...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
Trump can't survive "a Latino surge in the South and West."
It implies Trump loses Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Even giving Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire leaves him at 254 and another even further away if Arizona falls to a Latino surge.
There's is nothing more dangerous to Trump than his Mexico wall.
In the event of Leave UKIP will disappear, job done, in the event of Remain it will reinvent itself under a different name. As it stands it is skint, with no real structure and split into two camps. But that doesn't mean the country doesn't need a 3rd party, one will evolve in some shape or form.
As I said the Tories now do stand in Ulster anyway (you could also make a case Labour and the LDs do through their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance) but leaving that aside the point remains the Tories, the LDs, UKIP and Labour all stand in well over 90% of the UK, the SNP less than 10% of the UK on no plausible definition could a party which stands in less than 10% of a country ever be considered its third party!
As I said the Tories now do stand in Ulster anyway (you could also make a case Labour and the LDs do through their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance) but leaving that aside the point remains the Tories, the LDs, UKIP and Labour all stand in well over 90% of the UK, the SNP less than 10% of the UK on no plausible definition could a party which stands in less than 10% of a country ever be considered its third party!
Would you care for a shovel?
Well you clearly have run out of arguments, so I will leave it there
" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.
...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
And Trump is energetic, unpredictable, clever, exciting, straight-talking, a master of the mind-f**k, who will create some momentum with a surprising but reassuring VP pick, whereas tired has-been Clinton will struggle on, ball-and-chained by her unsavoury history, in an election she thought was hers by right...
In the event of Leave UKIP will disappear, job done, in the event of Remain it will reinvent itself under a different name. As it stands it is skint, with no real structure and split into two camps. But that doesn't mean the country doesn't need a 3rd party, one will evolve in some shape or form.
It will keep the name, its brand already gives it 13% of the vote and plenty room to increase it after a close Remain vote
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
Surely third party status belong to the SNP.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
Yes, I understand their MPs are clearly superior by dint of coming from Scotland but I don't understand how that helps your argument.
They are Scotland's first party, the UK's fifth party
" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.
...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
Hillary could also pick a Hispanic VP like Castro and these state pick ups, a bare minimum of 5, effectively require Trump to run the table, only likely if he leads the popular vote
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals. Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls
But they win 5-8 times as many seats.
Almost all online polls overstating UKIP.
I doubt at the next election they will be winning 5-8 times as many seats as UKIP
It will be infinity as UKIP wont win any at the next GE
They will most likely pick up Thanet South and Thurrock if Remain due to defections from Leave voters in the Tories and to a lesser extent Labour
Is it a Leave stall or just a stall to promote Britain First? There is no mention of it being a Leave stall in the article or the article from when they previously turned up.
It was a Leave stall, and campaigning for Brexit. I wuspect not one endorsed by the official Leave campaign.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Vote share at the 2015 General Election was
Con 36.9% Lab 30.4% UKIP 12.6% LibD 7.9% SNP 4.7% Green 3.8%
So the SNP were a poor fifth in the UK.
They gave the other parties a chance by only standing in 59 seats. Imagine what would happen if they stood UK wide?
English voters are not going to vote for a Scottish nationalist party as the last election proved!
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.
Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.
Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation.
I know the HYUFD red mist of stubborness has now descended wherein facts mean little, but it's actually 8.3%.
I said a little over 5%, 8.3% really does little to change the argument!
Underestimating a percentage of a total by almost 40% hardly adds to the veracity of an argument.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.
Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.
Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation.
I know the HYUFD red mist of stubborness has now descended wherein facts mean little, but it's actually 8.3%.
I said a little over 5%, 8.3% really does little to change the argument!
Underestimating a percentage of a total by almost 40% hardly adds to the veracity of an argument.
I did not say 5%, I said 'a little over 5%.' When 8.3% still leaves 91.7% of the UK in which the SNP do not stand and when I also said they stand in less than 10% of the country as I said it does little to change the argument!
In the event of Leave UKIP will disappear, job done, in the event of Remain it will reinvent itself under a different name. As it stands it is skint, with no real structure and split into two camps. But that doesn't mean the country doesn't need a 3rd party, one will evolve in some shape or form.
They got £250k in donations last quarter IIRC.
£ 187 K in 1st quarter 2016 compared to Lib Dems £ 747 K
" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.
...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
And Trump is energetic, unpredictable, clever, exciting, straight-talking, a master of the mind-f**k, who will create some momentum with a surprising but reassuring VP pick, whereas tired has-been Clinton will struggle on, ball-and-chained by her unsavoury history, in an election she thought was hers by right...
Historically it should be an election that is the Republicans by right after 8 years out of the White House, Trump ensures that is no certainty
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
"Attacking Leave campaigners in his Remain speech, Mr Miliband said: "I think you see elements from the Leave campaign based on prejudice. "When Nigel Farage says on television to Peter Mandelson 'you are rubbing our noses in diversity', I think that's an offensive remark."
An offensive remark...prejudice? Huh?
It was you and your party that made the original remark and actually went out and did it in practice you utter fuckwit.
The old terms of reference get out....It is a good job the lady who reviewed the Rotherham child sex scandal didn't follow that approach, rather followed the evidence to the establish the whole truth.
Well, we have had 20 years of governments secretly and not so secretly promoting mass immigration as a price worth paying (by the working class) to make the middle class richer. So let Corbyn have a go. I can't see anything wrong in killing buy to let investors off, it is immoral for rentiers to monopolise the bottom end of housing like they do. There isn't much wrong in higher tax rates. To paraphrase Nick Palmer - the middle class are too comfortable, too content, a bit of Corbyn class warfare will bring them into the real world. I think it is a necessary correction.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
Well, we have had 20 years of governments secretly and not so secretly promoting mass immigration as a price worth paying (by the working class) to make the middle class richer. So let Corbyn have a go. I can't see anything wrong in killing buy to let investors off, it is immoral for rentiers to monopolise the bottom end of housing like they do. There isn't much wrong in higher tax rates. To paraphrase Nick Palmer - the middle class are too comfortable, too content, a bit of Corbyn class warfare will bring them into the real world. I think it is a necessary correction.
And the overwhelming majority of us who aren't buy-to-let landlords? We just need to have our lives fucked up to add to the gaiety of the nation?
Aussie 3rd umpire is on again...it really is like listening to fan watching the game...ohhhh yeeaahhhhh mate, lets rock n roll that one again...ohhhhhhh yeahhh...interesting...i better keep talking to keep the viewers entertained...if you are waiting for me to sing a song I not going to do it....
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
Dream On
With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible
" How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.
...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.
And Trump is energetic, unpredictable, clever, exciting, straight-talking, a master of the mind-f**k, who will create some momentum with a surprising but reassuring VP pick, whereas tired has-been Clinton will struggle on, ball-and-chained by her unsavoury history, in an election she thought was hers by right...
Crazy Bernie is doing a lot of Trump's spadework too.
No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win
If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.
Next to zero chance of that, if, as is most likely, the referendum is a narrow Remain I can see a result something like Tories 33%, Labour 31%, UKIP 17% in 2020. That would be a swing of 4% from Tory to UKIP and 2% from Labour to UKIP and would see them win Thurrock and Thanet South and come close in Hartlepool and Boston
"I don't agree" doesn't mean there is next to zero chance. There is a very real chance that UKIP will win zero seats at the next General Election. A lot of things point that way:
1: UKIP have NEVER won a seat at a General Election not being contested by an incumbent. 2: Their only incumbent looks distinctly unimpressed with the parties direction. 3: As do many other party members who are not the leader. 4: The party has no loyalty/career/better devil factor to tie people to the party despite not liking its direction unlike the Tories. 5: The party has to many served its purpose already.
The fact you optimistically can see a result of 17% does not mean that's the only possible result. It could just as easily be 3% or 7% or 12%.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
Dream On
With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible
102 UKIP MPs?
Now where did I hear that before?
On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.
All publicly funded scientific papers published in Europe could be made free to access by 2020, under a “life-changing” reform ordered by the European Union’s science chief, Carlos Moedas.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.
Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.
The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.
UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.
BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.
No, they really are not. They are only won in the centre ground if you can keep your wing on board. If 20% of Tories, presumably those to the right of the party, peel off to the Kippers or stay at home, the Tories lose the next election. There might be more voters in the centre, but you are also competing with more parties for that vote.
Never going to happen. Anyone who votes UKIP may as well abstain.
Can I quote you on that after a narrow Remain win
If the rightmost fifth of the Tory voters stay at home, they still lose.
Sure you can. I stand by my prediction that UKIP are more likely to win less seats next GE than they are to win more.
Next to zero chance of that, if, as is most likely, the referendum is a narrow Remain I can see a result something like Tories 33%, Labour 31%, UKIP 17% in 2020. That would be a swing of 4% from Tory to UKIP and 2% from Labour to UKIP and would see them win Thurrock and Thanet South and come close in Hartlepool and Boston
"I don't agree" doesn't mean there is next to zero chance. There is a very real chance that UKIP will win zero seats at the next General Election. A lot of things point that way:
1: UKIP have NEVER won a seat at a General Election not being contested by an incumbent. 2: Their only incumbent looks distinctly unimpressed with the parties direction. 3: As do many other party members who are not the leader. 4: The party has no loyalty/career/better devil factor to tie people to the party despite not liking its direction unlike the Tories. 5: The party has to many served its purpose already.
The fact you optimistically can see a result of 17% does not mean that's the only possible result. It could just as easily be 3% or 7% or 12%.
1. They already have an incumbent who won a comfortable majority at the last election 2. He is even more unimpressed with Cameron and Osborne 3. Not half as much as Tory members are not happy with their leadership 4. The party has an anti EU core which will be pivotal in attracting disgruntled Leave voters if Remain do narrowly win 5. Only to the extent it has forced a referendum, if that Referendum is seen as lost by establishment dirty tricks the party is needed even more as a protest and to keep the flame of EU independence alive
Given the Tories will be seen as the establishment party in 2020 and Labour will likely be led by an ineffective leftwinger, UKIP will be the main party of protest so I believe I higher total than 2015 very plausible
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
Dream On
With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible
102 UKIP MPs?
Now where did I hear that before?
On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.
I never said they would get 102, 3 to 5 is more likely but that would at least be treble their present score. The key difference in 2015 to 2020 is that anti EU voters had to vote Tory to get the referendum, if the referendum is lost because of the Tory leadership they will have no qualms about voting UKIP in 2020 to maximise the pressure for another referendum
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
All publicly funded scientific papers published in Europe could be made free to access by 2020, under a “life-changing” reform ordered by the European Union’s science chief, Carlos Moedas.
How do you deal with a situation where a study was part publicly funded? It's somewhat moot (not surprising for the EU) given the popularity of arXiv, at least in some sciences.
All publicly funded scientific papers published in Europe could be made free to access by 2020, under a “life-changing” reform ordered by the European Union’s science chief, Carlos Moedas.
How do you deal with a situation where a study was part publicly funded? It's somewhat moot (not surprising for the EU) given the popularity of arXiv, at least in some sciences.
From the article, I believe they are saying basically any public money involved, it must be freely available.
It is going seriously kill the business model of big providers of these libraries / journals. Google will be happy.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
They are also the third party at Westminster.
Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
Not sure about that. I was thinking more in terms of the decreasing importance of Westminster.
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Not according to our resident JCB operative.
Apparently it only counts if you stand in all parts of the UK regardless of how many seats you get. All bow before Douglas Carswell - newly appointed "Third Party of the UK" .... That'll please Nigel ....
Someone better tell Bercow too. The poor sod seems to think it might be several dozen Scots who probably just pop down to Westminster for lessons on extra-curricula rumpy pumpy .... they're doing quite well at it too ....
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
They are also the third party at Westminster.
Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK
As opposed to UKIP who do not have an MP in 99.85% of the UK?
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
They are also the third party at Westminster.
Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK
As opposed to UKIP who do not have an MP in 99.85% of the UK?
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.
I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.
No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
I think you'll find they have a number of constituencies which are wholly or partially at lower latitudes than Berwick.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
They are third only because of Scottish MPs, they have not one MP outside of Scotland and were 5th in UK voteshare which is what really counts, they are the first party of Scotland at Westminster, the fifth party of the UK
They are also the third party at Westminster.
Only because of Scottish MPs, they are fifth in UK voteshare and do not have an MP in 91% of the UK
As opposed to UKIP who do not have an MP in 99.85% of the UK?
Yet they are the third party in the majority of the UK by voteshare
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
Dream On
With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible
102 UKIP MPs?
Now where did I hear that before?
On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.
I never said they would get 102, 3 to 5 is more likely but that would at least be treble their present score. The key difference in 2015 to 2020 is that anti EU voters had to vote Tory to get the referendum, if the referendum is lost because of the Tory leadership they will have no qualms about voting UKIP in 2020 to maximise the pressure for another referendum
It was MikeK's prediction of 102.
I predicted 2 UKIP MPs last time around, though did well betting in UKIP target seats by backing the opponent.
I think that UKIP will struggle to get more than the odd seat under FPTP. There are simply not enough votes in the policies that they favour.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
UKIP could double them and get nearly 30% of the vote
Dream On
With support from disgruntled Leave voters after a narrow Remain victory in its rural, coastal and market town heartlands entirely possible
102 UKIP MPs?
Now where did I hear that before?
On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even bette
It was MikeK's prediction of 102.
I predicted 2 UKIP MPs last time around, though did well betting in UKIP target seats by backing the opponent.
I think that UKIP will struggle to get more than the odd seat under FPTP. There are simply not enough votes in the policies that they favour.
If Leave fail to win but win 45%+ of the vote that is a very large pool of voters for their core platform, even if only 40% of them vote UKIP that is still 18%
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
Right-wingers who affect a concern for what they call the "WWC" tend to subject working class people to the tyranny of low expectations and imagine that to be working class is to be a bovine racist, so they think opposing bovine racism is opposing the working class.
All in Scotland, the SNP are a Scottish Party not a UK Party and have no intention of being anything other than Scotland's Party in the UK Parliament, UKIP are a party fighting to win across the UK (the clue is in the titles!)
But they are third in the UK Parliament, which is what actually counts.
Perhaps not if the UK votes Remain!
Has there been polling on the hypothetical "if the UK votes leave how would you vote in a second indy ref"/
'Third, it appears that a Leave vote in the EU referendum could indeed tilt the balance in any second ballot on independence. For when Panelbase asked their Scottish respondents how they would vote if a majority across the UK as a whole were to vote to Leave, 52% said they would vote Yes, 48% No. In particular, whereas at the moment 49% of Remain voters would vote No to independence, that figure falls to 39% in the wake of a UK vote to Leave. So whereas a ballot held now would probably see the decision on independence made in September 2014 (narrowly) reaffirmed, a ballot held in the wake of a Leave vote might produce a majority vote for independence.'
If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.
In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.
Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.
If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.
In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.
Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.
Scotland showed precisely the opposite, even if UKIP do not see anything like the boost the SNP got, if they got the boost the LDs got in 2005 after Iraq that would still force a hung parliament
If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.
In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.
Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.
Scotland showed precisely the opposite, even if UKIP do not see anything like the boost the SNP got, if they got the boost the LDs got in 2005 after Iraq that would still force a hung parliament
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
Right-wingers who affect a concern for what they call the "WWC" tend to subject working class people to the tyranny of low expectations and imagine that to be working class is to be a bovine racist, so they think opposing bovine racism is opposing the working class.
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
Right-wingers who affect a concern for what they call the "WWC" tend to subject working class people to the tyranny of low expectations and imagine that to be working class is to be a bovine racist, so they think opposing bovine racism is opposing the working class.
Wanderer - plenty of working class people have had their lives turned to crap by the middle class - Mr Fox doesn't hide his satisfaction about it - he is doing an Emily Thornberry below. Look at how many comments say that a private education shouldn't be held against a man, but what about a crap education from a comprehensive? For 45 years I voted conservative, last year I found I couldn't vote for Tomlisson, and now I won't vote conservative again. I think Corbyn will shake things up.
Cheering the good citizens of Leicester opposing the thugs of Britain First is not being snooty about the working class.
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
Right-wingers who affect a concern for what they call the "WWC" tend to subject working class people to the tyranny of low expectations and imagine that to be working class is to be a bovine racist, so they think opposing bovine racism is opposing the working class.
If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.
In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.
Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.
Scotland showed precisely the opposite, even if UKIP do not see anything like the boost the SNP got, if they got the boost the LDs got in 2005 after Iraq that would still force a hung parliament
No it would not.
Yes it would if Labour win a few seats because of Tory Leavers switching to UKIP even if their vote is static much as the Tories won a few seats in 2005 because of Labour voters switching to the LDs over Iraq
1. Was I supposed to have missed Mike's enthusiastic endorsement of the 'super-encumbency' theory? 2. The Lib Dems certainly ended up in the coalition Government, the only way they were ever going to be in government. The abandoned their flagship policy. They did the exact opposite. 3. You're right, it was 1906. I was far too generous to the Liberals. My bad.
What you were supposed to have done was :
1. Accurately reflect Mike's comment and not place your prejudices upon it. 2. Understand that the 2010-15 Coalition was what it said on the tin. Not a LibDem government. 3. Reflect that you being "generous" to the Liberals is a contradiction in terms.
1. Yeah, and just ignore all his threads before GE2015. That sort of "prejudice". 2. I think the British people showed exactly what they thought of the Lib Dems at GE2015. A coalition does not absolve a party from its manifesto commitments. 3. Decreasing the time since winning an election is being generous.
And as we are being petty;it's 'your being'. It is being used as a gerund in this case.
UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.
But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
Surely third party status belong to the SNP.
Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
Comments
Betting PostF1: eventually came up with a bet. We'll see how it goes. Race should be interesting*:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/monaco-pre-race-2016.html
*For Monaco.
Trump can't survive "a Latino surge in the South and West."
It implies Trump loses Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Even giving Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire leaves him at 254 and another even further away if Arizona falls to a Latino surge.
There's is nothing more dangerous to Trump than his Mexico wall.
This week Theresa May overtook Henry Matthews (me neither) as longest-serving Home Sec since RA Cross (likewise) https://t.co/0zevHNlsmF
If she's still Home Secretary in February, she will be the 2nd longest-serving after Henry Addington, Viscount Sidmouth, 1812-22.
#BREAKING Lightning strikes German football pitch, 35 injured, 3 seriously
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36405482
We're having difficulty in seeing you from the trench you dug. Oooppps .... where have you gone I can't see you any longer ....
ECHO .... ECHo .... ECho .... Echo
"Attacking Leave campaigners in his Remain speech, Mr Miliband said: "I think you see elements from the Leave campaign based on prejudice. "When Nigel Farage says on television to Peter Mandelson 'you are rubbing our noses in diversity', I think that's an offensive remark."
An offensive remark...prejudice? Huh?
It was you and your party that made the original remark and actually went out and did it in practice you utter fuckwit.
http://news.sky.com/story/1703571/miliband-flounders-as-he-fishes-for-youth-vote
The report will not make any judgements on the legality or anything like that because it is not the purpose of the report, the source said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/28/tony-blair-will-not-be-accused-of-breaking-laws-in-iraq-war-inqu/
The old terms of reference get out....It is a good job the lady who reviewed the Rotherham child sex scandal didn't follow that approach, rather followed the evidence to the establish the whole truth.
http://siouxcityjournal.com/news/opinion/columnists/will/george-will-june-can-become-britain-s-fourth-of-july/article_eea94012-c1c0-5c71-ac1d-b52901622bec.html
When the barbarous Brits first quit Europe
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/opinion/sunday/when-the-barbarous-brits-first-quit-europe.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
https://twitter.com/PA/status/736600166774542336
I gather he's decided on Lyin' Liz for Warren.
1: UKIP have NEVER won a seat at a General Election not being contested by an incumbent.
2: Their only incumbent looks distinctly unimpressed with the parties direction.
3: As do many other party members who are not the leader.
4: The party has no loyalty/career/better devil factor to tie people to the party despite not liking its direction unlike the Tories.
5: The party has to many served its purpose already.
The fact you optimistically can see a result of 17% does not mean that's the only possible result. It could just as easily be 3% or 7% or 12%.
http://www.270towin.com/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/28/trusox-inside-the-secret-british-sports-brand-worn-by-gareth-bal/
Now where did I hear that before?
On topic, I have long thought the value bet is on Leave. I have a decent sum on at 4.8 average. The odds on Remain under 45% are even better. My plan was to go all Green as the odds narrowed, but sadly they have been stubbonly resistant to budging.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/may/28/eu-ministers-2020-target-free-access-scientific-papers
2. He is even more unimpressed with Cameron and Osborne
3. Not half as much as Tory members are not happy with their leadership
4. The party has an anti EU core which will be pivotal in attracting disgruntled Leave voters if Remain do narrowly win
5. Only to the extent it has forced a referendum, if that Referendum is seen as lost by establishment dirty tricks the party is needed even more as a protest and to keep the flame of EU independence alive
Given the Tories will be seen as the establishment party in 2020 and Labour will likely be led by an ineffective leftwinger, UKIP will be the main party of protest so I believe I higher total than 2015 very plausible
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/28/2905-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
It is going seriously kill the business model of big providers of these libraries / journals. Google will be happy.
Apparently it only counts if you stand in all parts of the UK regardless of how many seats you get. All bow before Douglas Carswell - newly appointed "Third Party of the UK" .... That'll please Nigel ....
Someone better tell Bercow too. The poor sod seems to think it might be several dozen Scots who probably just pop down to Westminster for lessons on extra-curricula rumpy pumpy .... they're doing quite well at it too ....
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scots-majority-oppose-second-indyref-8025005#k4pEKb39PkTzUfae.99
http://tinyurl.com/zz56h9q
I should also point out that my education was entirely in state comprehensives. If you are looking for some champagne socialist set, then you are looking in the wrong place
That polling should help boost Leave in England.
I predicted 2 UKIP MPs last time around, though did well betting in UKIP target seats by backing the opponent.
I think that UKIP will struggle to get more than the odd seat under FPTP. There are simply not enough votes in the policies that they favour.
Probably at least a 50% chance that they lose that record (That they've only just gained) at the next election.
TigersCity promoted...If Leave loses many will accept that democratic verdict, just as I would accept it should it go the other way.
In a General Election a lot of other issues will come into it, not just the EU and immigration, but we shall see. I still think that May 2014 was the highwater mark of peak kipper.
Of course events may change that, but my hunch is not.
The fact you can't see the LDs overtaking UKIP doesn't mean it's impossible. They're already well ahead of them in both MPs and fundraising.
https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_races_bovines
They even got close to the psychologically-important 0.1 per cent threshold in Belfast West, though they didn't quite get there in the end.
2. I think the British people showed exactly what they thought of the Lib Dems at GE2015. A coalition does not absolve a party from its manifesto commitments.
3. Decreasing the time since winning an election is being generous.
And as we are being petty;it's 'your being'. It is being used as a gerund in this case.