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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are getting to a point where LEAVE could be the value bet

Until now I have refrained from betting on the referendum quite simply because the odds on neither side appear attractive. My instinct tells me to follow the phone polls but I’m not convinced that IN has an 80%+ chance of victory.

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Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited May 2016
    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,926
    Second like REMAIN!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    :smiley: Indeed so. 8/650 still qualifies as "sometimes".

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    FPT UKIP's future, the likelihood is that in this Parliament, as in the second half of the last, disgruntled Conservatives will switch to UKIP, rather than Labour, giving the party a good poll rating. If there's a remain vote, then UKIP will likely top the poll in the Euro elections of 2019, which will coincide with the biggest round of local elections.

    If Leave wins, then I'd expect UKIP to fade.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Perusing the markets for race bets. Haven't really got going yet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,926
    JackW said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    :smiley: Indeed so. 8/650 still qualifies as "sometimes".

    "LibDems - Spinning Here!" :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,926
    Sean_F said:

    FPT UKIP's future, the likelihood is that in this Parliament, as in the second half of the last, disgruntled Conservatives will switch to UKIP, rather than Labour, giving the party a good poll rating. If there's a remain vote, then UKIP will likely top the poll in the Euro elections of 2019, which will coincide with the biggest round of local elections.

    If Leave wins, then I'd expect UKIP to fade.

    ANC still alive and well in SA.
    Congress Party still alive, but probably not so well, in India :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    edited May 2016
    Crickey Ed Tombstone stumped by the genius IQ of Joey Essex. Even 2 E's Jezza managed to pass that test.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Crickey Ed Tombstone stumped by the genius IQ of Joey Essex. Even 2 E's Jezza managed to pass that test.

    It's brilliant, I'd the distinct impression EdM didn't have a clue what Joey was saying apart from the word *kids*. His face was a total blank.

    That he then asked the audience to reply just reinforced it. What a total keeper.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Crickey Ed Tombstone stumped by the genius IQ of Joey Essex. Even 2 E's Jezza managed to pass that test.

    Joey now joins Susanna Reid and Myleene Klass in being able to claim him as a casualty, where other politicians tend to be more fearful of Paxman, Neil and Humphreys.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    Plato_Says said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Crickey Ed Tombstone stumped by the genius IQ of Joey Essex. Even 2 E's Jezza managed to pass that test.

    It's brilliant, I'd the distinct impression EdM didn't have a clue what Joey was saying apart from the word *kids*. His face was a total blank.

    That he then asked the audience to reply just reinforced it. What a total keeper.
    To be fair, he was doing OK until Joey came back with the killer supplementary!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Yes, it would be a comedy, if it weren't for the tragic need that we have for a credible, functioning opposition.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    I have availed myself. It's going to be very, very close.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Would that have been the Prime Minister of Essex or the whole of the UK?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/the-world-according-to-joey-essex-best-quotes-from-the-im-a-celebrity-star-8951844.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    ThomasNashe said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Yes, it would be a comedy, if it weren't for the tragic need that we have for a credible, functioning opposition.

    I'd settle for a credible, functioning government right now.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    F1: still waiting for the markets.

    As an aside whilst waiting, The Musketeers is on from half nine till half ten tonight. Seems odd timing.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Would that have been the Prime Minister of Essex or the whole of the UK?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/the-world-according-to-joey-essex-best-quotes-from-the-im-a-celebrity-star-8951844.html
    It's Corbynomics - "How many sides does a square have?...Six"
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    We can almost feel your pain Mike albeit your suffering is assuaged by the odd betting triumph, that you are far too modest about recounting.

    Tis a failing we both share .... :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    edited May 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Would that have been the Prime Minister of Essex or the whole of the UK?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/the-world-according-to-joey-essex-best-quotes-from-the-im-a-celebrity-star-8951844.html
    It's Corbynomics - "How many sides does a square have?...Six"
    Not sure Jezza subscribes to the manta "Look Reem, Be Reem, Smell Reem, Totally Reem" though..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,885
    ThomasNashe said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Yes, it would be a comedy, if it weren't for the tragic need that we have for a credible, functioning opposition.
    Arguably, the Conservatives are providing that Opposition. Just not the credible functioning Government....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    ThomasNashe said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Crickey Ed Tombstone stumped by the genius IQ of Joey Essex. Even 2 E's Jezza managed to pass that test.

    Joey now joins Susanna Reid and Myleene Klass in being able to claim him as a casualty, where other politicians tend to be more fearful of Paxman, Neil and Humphreys.
    Gordon Brown b. Sian Williams.

    Not quite in the same class as Rhodes Boyson and Ali G.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MarqueeMark said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Yes, it would be a comedy, if it weren't for the tragic need that we have for a credible, functioning opposition.
    Arguably, the Conservatives are providing that Opposition. Just not the credible functioning Government....
    They are providing both opposition and government but neither is credible.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited May 2016
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
    UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

    Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

    Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

    With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

    I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cyclefree said:

    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?

    Wait.

    Postal votes are already dropping on mats. You might also check with your council to see if your application has been processed.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Cyclefree said:

    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?

    Contact Returning Office at your council.

    https://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/frequently-asked-questions/voting-by-post
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited May 2016
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

    With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

    I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

    With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

    I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

    No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    Plato_Says said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Plato, Miliband could plausibly have become PM.

    And then Labour picked someone worse, because the MPs didn't understand the rules of their own leadership election.

    *sighs*

    Would that have been the Prime Minister of Essex or the whole of the UK?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/the-world-according-to-joey-essex-best-quotes-from-the-im-a-celebrity-star-8951844.html
    It's Corbynomics - "How many sides does a square have?...Six"
    That's right. Four edges. An inside and an outside.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2016
    VapidBilge said:

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.

    Absolute piffle.

    1. Mike didn't endorse FPTP but simply noted the electoral stats.
    2. The LibDems didn't win the 2010 general election and thus the tuition fee pledge was mute.
    3. The Liberals last won a national election in 1906 not 1908.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    edited May 2016
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjXrRviVAAAtpjO.jpg

    I thought the pattern of emigration in the EU was there is a surge after a country's accession, but it then stops - everybody wishing to do so does (cf. Poland). Surely the emigration must stop quite naturally after a while - or does the last emigrant switch off the lights?

    The chart shows that EU immigration is coming from countries that acceded long ago.

    This, I think, is unprecedented.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,962
    I've been on Leave for a week or so, at 4.8. Might top up if above 5 next week.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,345
    JackW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?

    Wait.

    Postal votes are already dropping on mats. You might also check with your council to see if your application has been processed.
    My wife and I have just posted our REMAIN votes.

    It's a bit of an IQ test working out which bits of paper go in which envelopes facing which way.

    Should favour the Remainers.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?

    Wait.

    Postal votes are already dropping on mats. You might also check with your council to see if your application has been processed.
    My wife and I have just posted our REMAIN votes.

    It's a bit of an IQ test working out which bits of paper go in which envelopes facing which way.

    Should favour the Remainers.
    It is this sort of sentiment that will lose this for Remain
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

    By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.

    Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.

  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    JackW said:

    VapidBilge said:

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.

    Absolute piffle.

    1. Mike didn't endorse FPTP but simply noted the electoral stats.
    2. The LibDems didn't win the 2010 general election and thus the tuition fee pledge was mute.
    3. The Liberals last won a national election in 1906 not 1908.
    With hindsight what really did for the Libs was introducing the universal franchise which resulted in Labour replacing them. There's gratitude for you
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    Just got into Wembley. Not impressed with the pathetic excuse for not allowing Hull's unsold tickets to be sold to Wednesday. In Germany the stadiums are I unsegregated behind the stands - but of course in this country we treat fans like children. It's not Man Utd v Liverpool FFS.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    JackW said:

    VapidBilge said:

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.

    Absolute piffle.

    1. Mike didn't endorse FPTP but simply noted the electoral stats.
    2. The LibDems didn't win the 2010 general election and thus the tuition fee pledge was mute.
    3. The Liberals last won a national election in 1906 not 1908.
    1. Was I supposed to have missed Mike's enthusiastic endorsement of the 'super-encumbency' theory?
    2. The Lib Dems certainly ended up in the coalition Government, the only way they were ever going to be in government. The abandoned their flagship policy. They did the exact opposite.
    3. You're right, it was 1906. I was far too generous to the Liberals. My bad.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    With hindsight what really did for the Libs was introducing the universal franchise which resulted in Labour replacing them. There's gratitude for you

    With hindsight the Jacobite army shouldn't have turned back at Derby and then the bloody Whigs and their successors wouldn't have been "Winning Here" since 1745 .... :cry:

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    JackW said:

    VapidBilge said:

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.

    Absolute piffle.

    1. Mike didn't endorse FPTP but simply noted the electoral stats.
    2. The LibDems didn't win the 2010 general election and thus the tuition fee pledge was mute.
    3. The Liberals last won a national election in 1906 not 1908.
    With hindsight what really did for the Libs was introducing the universal franchise which resulted in Labour replacing them. There's gratitude for you
    The universal franchise was a great mistake.

    Since 1832 it's all been downhill.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    VapidBilge said:

    1. Was I supposed to have missed Mike's enthusiastic endorsement of the 'super-encumbency' theory?
    2. The Lib Dems certainly ended up in the coalition Government, the only way they were ever going to be in government. The abandoned their flagship policy. They did the exact opposite.
    3. You're right, it was 1906. I was far too generous to the Liberals. My bad.

    What you were supposed to have done was :

    1. Accurately reflect Mike's comment and not place your prejudices upon it.
    2. Understand that the 2010-15 Coalition was what it said on the tin. Not a LibDem government.
    3. Reflect that you being "generous" to the Liberals is a contradiction in terms.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    This is PB, surely we do both?
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 667
    PClipp. Twice on this thread you have made comments which could get OGH in to trouble.

    It is innocent until proven guilty, are we clear?

    A third infraction will see your ability to instantly post revoked. Understand?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    I wondered where my post went.. refreshed quite a few times thinking I was going mad.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,233
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Barnesian said:

    JackW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A question for the PB brains trust.

    I have just received my polling card but about 10 days ago I applied for a postal vote as I shall be on holiday on the day of the vote.

    Should I reapply for a postal vote? Or just wait?

    Wait.

    Postal votes are already dropping on mats. You might also check with your council to see if your application has been processed.
    My wife and I have just posted our REMAIN votes.

    It's a bit of an IQ test working out which bits of paper go in which envelopes facing which way.

    Should favour the Remainers.
    It is this sort of sentiment that will lose this for Remain
    Why
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Anderson only 5 wickets away from 450 in Tests. Amazing achievement.
    Might even make it in this innings the way things are going!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Hope nobody has Day 4 tickets...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    F1: nothing's leaping out at me, though there are a few bets that look potentially interesting. May need to check the better forecast sites, not used them for a while.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    https://twitter.com/bernerlap/status/736454659125202945
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Anderson only 5 wickets away from 450 in Tests. Amazing achievement.
    Might even make it in this innings the way things are going!
    I don't think he gets the credit he deserves. He is certainly nowhere near as famous among the wider public, but that might be because of cricket being on Sky etc. But his figures (not only wickets) are basically as good as any of the great English bowlers, except Truman who had the tiny advantage of bowling on uncovered stone filled wickets.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Any #EURef polls expected tonight? :open_mouth:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    edited May 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    twitter.com/bernerlap/status/736454659125202945

    Was it taxpayer funded, or just made to look like a government ad? I'm thinking of those Cruz fliers in the US.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Once again backing Out is better on the bands market.

    The Out bands are 7.6, 29 and 65 - that equates to a total of 5.51.

    Whereas on the result market, Out is 5.2.

    Of course if you are happy to discount Out winning by more than 10% (ie getting over 55%) then just back the Remain 45 to 50 band at 7.6.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    edited May 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Hope nobody has Day 4 3 tickets...
    Corrected...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,969
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

    Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
    LOL , 8 beats 56 , counting lessons needed methinks.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    I wondered where my post went.. refreshed quite a few times thinking I was going mad.

    You are mad ....

    PB is a course of therapy.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited May 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    https://twitter.com/bernerlap/status/736454659125202945

    Do we know for certain it wasn't an advert funded by Remain?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

    By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.

    Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.

    Nope. Ulster represents barely 2% of the UK population, so the main parties stand in 98% of the UK and the Tories also stood candidates in Ulster at the last election too. Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation. The SNP came fifth in UK vote share at the last election. The SNP are not the third party anywhere in the UK, not in England, not in Wales and not in Ulster where they do not even stand and not in Scotland where they are the first party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
    The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Swap over the last digits and make it 52 48 Remain and you may be more plausible
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Nope. Ulster represents barely 2% of the UK population, so the main parties stand in 98% of the UK and the Tories also stood candidates in Ulster at the last election too. Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation. The SNP came fifth in UK vote share at the last election. The SNP are not the third party anywhere in the UK, not in England, not in Wales and not in Ulster where they do not even stand and not in Scotland where they are the first party.

    And now you change your narrative. It's either all of the UK for all parties or not.

    Give it up old chap. I have you by the short and curlies and you know it .... :smile:

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,173
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

    By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.

    Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.

    Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation.
    I know the HYUFD red mist of stubborness has now descended wherein facts mean little, but it's actually 8.3%.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

    With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

    I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

    Vote share at the 2015 General Election was

    Con 36.9%
    Lab 30.4%
    UKIP 12.6%
    LibD 7.9%
    SNP 4.7%
    Green 3.8%

    So the SNP were a poor fifth in the UK.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The way things are going we won't need any day 3 tickets - this could cost Durham a lot of money.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This looks fun viewing

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fwm3QKrQlzU
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Leave stall by Britain First again in Leicester today, not being made welcome. Nice to see our Mayor taking the lead and working Saturday:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/City-mayor-Peter-Soulsby-challenged-Britain/story-29331811-detail/story.html#ixzz49xczwsG6

    https://twitter.com/DryWhit/status/736567249671233536
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,173
    edited May 2016
    Deleted due to out of date article!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    edited May 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    This looks fun viewing

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fwm3QKrQlzU

    Interesting how angry he gets at any suggestion that Labour has any problems with anti-semitism. Head in sand...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sri Lanka now 67 for 5 and unlikely to get as many runs as Moeen did on his own earlier today.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,543
    David_Evershed said:

    Sri Lanka now 67 for 5 and unlikely to get as many runs as Moeen did on his own earlier today.

    6 down...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    David_Evershed said:

    Sri Lanka now 67 for 5 and unlikely to get as many runs as Moeen did on his own earlier today.

    Make that 67 for 6.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,707
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    I wondered where my post went.. refreshed quite a few times thinking I was going mad.

    You are mad ....

    PB is a course of therapy.
    An ARSE a day.....
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Swap over the last digits and make it 52 48 Remain and you may be more plausible
    Swap over the first digits now and you'll be even closer.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    VapidBilge said:

    The sudden conversion of LibDems to FPTP has illustrated that they are without principle.

    Their complete betrayal of their pledge to abolish tuition fees, after being elected on exactly that pledge, illustrates the same.

    The removal of the Lib Dems at GE2015 was a necessary bit of electoral hygiene.

    UKIP, for all their many faults, at least stand for something and have the scars to prove it.

    BTW, the last time the Liberals won a national election was 1908. UKIP did it in 2014.

    Absolute piffle.

    1. Mike didn't endorse FPTP but simply noted the electoral stats.
    2. The LibDems didn't win the 2010 general election and thus the tuition fee pledge was mute.
    3. The Liberals last won a national election in 1906 not 1908.
    Do you remeber the campaign of the 1906 election Jack? How was it?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
    The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls
    But they win 5-8 times as many seats.

    Almost all online polls overstating UKIP.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    https://twitter.com/bernerlap/status/736454659125202945

    Do we know for certain it wasn't an advert funded by Remain?
    All the leavers want to do is moan about something. They've got no message so all they do is ble****g whinge.



  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    David_Evershed said:

    Vote share at the 2015 General Election was

    Con 36.9%
    Lab 30.4%
    UKIP 12.6%
    LibD 7.9%
    SNP 4.7%
    Green 3.8%

    So the SNP were a poor fifth in the UK.

    Party status in the UK is not directly determined by vote share. Otherwise Douglas Carswell would enjoy third party status by himself and much as the MP for Clacton punches above his weight he doesn't quite fill two benches in the Commons singularly, unlike Nicholas Soames and Eric Pickles.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    " How Hillary Loses - Donald Trump can actually win if Clinton makes these four mistakes. Spoiler alert: She’s already making all of them.

    ...So there you have it. Trump survives a Latino surge in the South and West; Clinton fails to bring home young voters in the Southeast and Midwest; Libertarians give Trump a foothold in the Northeast; the Rust Belt puts the nail in the coffin—and with somewhere between 274 and 325 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump becomes the 45th president of the United States. Yes, the specifics could vary. But it’s clear Trump can cross the 270 electoral-vote threshold even on the low end, with plenty of cushion on the high end to make up for a state that slips through his fingers here or there.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924#ixzz49y6w2bUJ

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

    Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
    LOL , 8 beats 56 , counting lessons needed methinks.
    I never said the LDs were third, UKIP were third in voteshare in 2015 on 12.7%, the LDs were fourth on 7.9% and the SNP fifth on 4.7%
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2016
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/736587684777332737

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/736588441836789760
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Leave stall by Britain First again in Leicester today, not being made welcome. Nice to see our Mayor taking the lead and working Saturday:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/City-mayor-Peter-Soulsby-challenged-Britain/story-29331811-detail/story.html#ixzz49xczwsG6

    https://twitter.com/DryWhit/status/736567249671233536

    Is it a Leave stall or just a stall to promote Britain First? There is no mention of it being a Leave stall in the article or the article from when they previously turned up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nope. Ulster represents barely 2% of the UK population, so the main parties stand in 98% of the UK and the Tories also stood candidates in Ulster at the last election too. Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation. The SNP came fifth in UK vote share at the last election. The SNP are not the third party anywhere in the UK, not in England, not in Wales and not in Ulster where they do not even stand and not in Scotland where they are the first party.

    And now you change your narrative. It's either all of the UK for all parties or not.

    Give it up old chap. I have you by the short and curlies and you know it .... :smile:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nope. Ulster represents barely 2% of the UK population, so the main parties stand in 98% of the UK and the Tories also stood candidates in Ulster at the last election too. Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation. The SNP came fifth in UK vote share at the last election. The SNP are not the third party anywhere in the UK, not in England, not in Wales and not in Ulster where they do not even stand and not in Scotland where they are the first party.

    And now you change your narrative. It's either all of the UK for all parties or not.

    Give it up old chap. I have you by the short and curlies and you know it .... :smile:

    As I said the Tories now do stand in Ulster anyway (you could also make a case Labour and the LDs do through their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance) but leaving that aside the point remains the Tories, the LDs, UKIP and Labour all stand in well over 90% of the UK, the SNP less than 10% of the UK on no plausible definition could a party which stands in less than 10% of a country ever be considered its third party!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    No they are not, to be the third party of the UK they would have to stand and win votes across the UK, they do not and have no intention to, they have not one MP south of Berwick. The SNP are a regional nationalist party who happen to have a large contingent of Scottish MPs to take to Westminster, they are not the UK's third party, they are Scotland's first party, there is a difference

    By your logic at various times Labour and the Conservatives couldn't enjoy first or second party status in the UK because they didn't stand in Ulster and likewise the LibDems third party.

    Frankly it doesn't matter where you stand in the UK. It's bums on seats for seats that count. A situation that is endorsed by the House of Commons where the SNP enjoy the status of the third party.

    Scotland represents a little over 5% of the UK population so the SNP do not stand in 95% of the UK, a totally incomparable situation.
    I know the HYUFD red mist of stubborness has now descended wherein facts mean little, but it's actually 8.3%.
    I said a little over 5%, 8.3% really does little to change the argument!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    ICYMI - Mr Lilico's 2p

    "The EU is not an economic project. The main good things about it are not economic and the reasons for leaving are not economic either. The economic case for Brexit is not that there would be large economic gains; it is that there would not be prohibitive economic costs that make it unfeasible to secure the large geopolitical, self-determination and constitutional gains we can make by leaving.

    Nonetheless, there is a chance that if all goes well, Brexit could be economically beneficial over the medium term. How so? After all, the Treasury says the UK would sacrifice 6 per cent of GDP growth by 2030 by leaving. How might we gain, instead?"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/why-leaving-the-eu-could-actually-be-to-our-economic-advantage/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.

    Surely third party status belong to the SNP.

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)
    Yes, I understand their MPs are clearly superior by dint of coming from Scotland but I don't understand how that helps your argument.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    MikeSmithson said:

    MikeL said:

    Plato_Says said:

    https://twitter.com/bernerlap/status/736454659125202945

    Do we know for certain it wasn't an advert funded by Remain?
    All the leavers want to do is moan about something. They've got no message so all they do is ble****g whinge.



    That's rich coming from the man who wrote a whole thread about how the Government might be justified in ignoring the whole referendum result because of a dodgy stat. And at the same time completely ignored the fact that the Remain side had also been attacked on the same day for their use of dodgy stats.

    You really should look in the mirror more often Mike.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MikeSmithson said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/736587684777332737

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/736588441836789760

    BURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRN
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    Is there any point talking about the referendum since RemaIN will by 58-42 anyway ?

    Let's talk about cricket instead.

    Swap over the last digits and make it 52 48 Remain and you may be more plausible
    Swap over the first digits now and you'll be even closer.
    We will see on referendum night but I think you will be wrong
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.
    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.
    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP´s weren´t being toxified by their assocation with the Tories.
    The LDs are no longer toxified and still trail UKIP in the polls
    But they win 5-8 times as many seats.

    Almost all online polls overstating UKIP.

    I doubt at the next election they will be winning 5-8 times as many seats as UKIP
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    David_Evershed said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not UK wide no, they have first party status in Scotland but are only 5th across the UK in voteshare (and all their MPs come from Scotland)

    With FPTP vote share is not directly relevant to party status. It doesn't matter where the MP's come from. Westminster is the UK parliament and you might recall a little referendum that secured that status.

    I hold no candle for the Great Turnip Party but the SNP are clearly the third party of the UK and first party of Scotland.

    Vote share at the 2015 General Election was

    Con 36.9%
    Lab 30.4%
    UKIP 12.6%
    LibD 7.9%
    SNP 4.7%
    Green 3.8%

    So the SNP were a poor fifth in the UK.

    They gave the other parties a chance by only standing in 59 seats. Imagine what would happen if they stood UK wide?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    PClipp said:

    First.... Lib Dems sometimes do come in first, you know!!!

    Eight times as many as UKIP at GE2015 and six times as many in the 2016 locals.

    Also the LDs generally hold on in council by-election defences unlike UKIP which has only many scraped home in two of the nine defences since May last year.

    UKIP got one and a half times the votes though at GE2015
    UKIP have more support than the Lib Dems overall, 24 MEP's to 1, 7 AM's to 1, 2 London Assembly members to 1.

    But the Lib Dems have 8 MP's to 1, 2000 councillors to 500, and 5 MSP's to 0. So, I think the Lib Dems can still claim third party status, but there's not much in it.
    UKIP came third in the 2013 county council elections (at least in the popular vote) and will be hoping to do even better next year. If they win the 2019 Euro elections again and increase their vote and win a handful more MPs in 2020 too I think they can then be confirmed as the third party
    UKIP will lose half their seats in next years CC elections including many to the Lib Dems , 3 in Eastleigh to start with .
This discussion has been closed.

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