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Comments
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"For Labour to draw level with the Tories nationally, it needs a 16-point lead in London. And for the party to match the record of past oppositions that have gone on to win the following general election, Khan’s margin of victory needs to be at least 25 points."TheScreamingEagles said:Rallings & Thrasher alert
Labour’s task is put into sharp relief by the latest Sunday Times survey of local government by-election results. This shows Labour on 30%, down nine points compared with four years ago. The Tories have a national equivalent vote share of 31%, down two points. The Lib Dems continue to perform better at real elections than in the polls with a rating of 16%. Ukip is on 12% — equivalent to its performance at last year’s general election, but a long way short of their 2013-14 surge.
If those figures are reflected in the actual votes cast, Labour could lose about 150 seats in the English local elections, with each of its opponents making modest gains. It would mean Labour is stuck far below any level necessary for it to mount a convincing challenge at the 2020 general election.
However, with only a third of seats falling vacant in most councils, the scope for dramatic changes in political control is limited.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/the-real-vote-test0 -
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.0 -
Why is Mail running BBC as front page massive splash? Has Operation Save Jezza been in touch?0
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Hammond is the go to man for stabilising departments of concern. It could be either Health, DWP or Education.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.0 -
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
If people love it the they'd happily pay asubscription for it, presumably?murali_s said:
Relax! The BBC works. People love it. Job done. End of.chestnut said:
What competition is there for a business funded by a compulsory TV tax?Jonathan said:Schedule conflicts creates competition creates better TV.
Mad policy. Will damage Itv.
Right-wing nutters (and by Jove there are many on this blog - lol) who don't the BBC can f*ck off!0 -
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.oxfordsimon said:
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
Well quite... but he might get DCMS....TheScreamingEagles said:
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.oxfordsimon said:
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
On topic, maximum chaos would be Leave but with everyone except England on Remain.
Once the UK breaks up I suppose the English would end up rejoining the EU.0 -
Or in the immortal words of John Reid "Oh F*** not Health!"TheScreamingEagles said:
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.oxfordsimon said:
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.0 -
Yeah. he didn't fancying taking on all those militant Doctors.foxinsoxuk said:
Or in the immortal words of John Reid "Oh F*** not Health!"TheScreamingEagles said:
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.oxfordsimon said:
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.0 -
Yes. Cameron's principled leadership of Remain campaign is paying dovidends!Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.0 -
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.0 -
Is a real boost for the Tories, rather than a Labour collapse. Labour down 2%, Tories up 5%.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.0 -
Surely Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs? They are responsible for circuses.oxfordsimon said:
Well quite... but he might get DCMS....TheScreamingEagles said:
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.oxfordsimon said:
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.Casino_Royale said:
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.oxfordsimon said:Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.0 -
Even Leavers cannot ignore forever the compelling case for Remain. Everyone doffs their cap when Dave and George elaborate on their pearls of wisdom.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a real boost for the Tories, rather than a Labour collapse. Labour down 2%, Tories up 5%.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.0 -
Even Farage was persuaded, he admitted it on twitter earlier on this weekfoxinsoxuk said:
Even Leavers cannot ignore forever the compelling case for Remain. Everyone doffs their cap when Dave and George elaborate on their pearls of wisdom.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a real boost for the Tories, rather than a Labour collapse. Labour down 2%, Tories up 5%.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7253156320660889600 -
And the embittered Blairite conspiracy.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.0 -
Sky: Ken can't remember why he started Hitler row that's engulfed the party. Extraordinary.0
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So perhaps the speculation about whether he was drunk or there are signs of dementia was not that far off the mark...AndyJS said:Sky: Ken can't remember why he started Hitler row that's engulfed the party. Extraordinary.
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That's what happens if you are wankered by mid morningAndyJS said:Sky: Ken can't remember why he started Hitler row that's engulfed the party. Extraordinary.
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Dan Hodges
"Anti-semitism is bad because it means we can't discuss housing". That Observer editorial in full.0 -
Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=00 -
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=00 -
I think there are worse things about it...Plato_Says said:Dan Hodges
"Anti-semitism is bad because it means we can't discuss housing". That Observer editorial in full.0 -
Yep - you can't really show sarcasm in a tweet can you?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even Farage was persuaded, he admitted it on twitter earlier on this weekfoxinsoxuk said:
Even Leavers cannot ignore forever the compelling case for Remain. Everyone doffs their cap when Dave and George elaborate on their pearls of wisdom.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a real boost for the Tories, rather than a Labour collapse. Labour down 2%, Tories up 5%.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7253156320660889600 -
Oh you are kidding me? A 5 day media firestorm days before the locals and the arsonist now says he had no idea why he was standing next to the barn with a petrol can and some matches.FrancisUrquhart said:
That's what happens if you are wankered by mid morningAndyJS said:Sky: Ken can't remember why he started Hitler row that's engulfed the party. Extraordinary.
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187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/0 -
It wasn't sarcasm.weejonnie said:
Yep - you can't really show sarcasm in a tweet can you?TheScreamingEagles said:
Even Farage was persuaded, he admitted it on twitter earlier on this weekfoxinsoxuk said:
Even Leavers cannot ignore forever the compelling case for Remain. Everyone doffs their cap when Dave and George elaborate on their pearls of wisdom.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is a real boost for the Tories, rather than a Labour collapse. Labour down 2%, Tories up 5%.Richard_Nabavi said:
And the doctors supporting the Tories so strongly. Don't forget the doctors.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is Dave's Pro-EU schtick, the voters are loving it.Richard_Nabavi said:A one point Tory lead becomes an eight point Tory lead over the last fortnight?
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/725315632066088960
They swiftly deleted the tweet and replaced it with the correct version, about Cameron making a powerful case for Leave.0 -
The best foreign sex seems to be in SwedenTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I thought all TOTPs had been bowdlerisedfoxinsoxuk said:On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
It's an ill wind that blows no good.
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Yes.weejonnie said:
The best foreign sex seems to be in SwedenTheScreamingEagles said:
In truth there is no point trying to calm civil war until after the referendum. You are wasting your cards until then.0 -
Thanks for the spreadsheet Andy. Surprised that Chipping Norton has a Labour councillor with a 20-point majority.0
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It is good to have a set of contingency plans in place - just better to keep them quiet...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes.weejonnie said:
The best foreign sex seems to be in SwedenTheScreamingEagles said:
In truth there is no point trying to calm civil war until after the referendum. You are wasting your cards until then.0 -
Act decisively after the referendum, that's the name of the game.oxfordsimon said:
It is good to have a set of contingency plans in place - just better to keep them quiet...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yes.weejonnie said:
The best foreign sex seems to be in SwedenTheScreamingEagles said:
In truth there is no point trying to calm civil war until after the referendum. You are wasting your cards until then.0 -
1981 is currently running on BBC4. Worth the licence fee on its own. We don't see much of the Nolans or Shakin Stevens nowadays.weejonnie said:
I thought all TOTPs had been bowdlerisedfoxinsoxuk said:On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
It's an ill wind that blows no good.0 -
If this were the result in EU ref the momentum would soon switch from the SNP to UKIP.
O/T went to see Eye in the Sky tonight, well worth a watch0 -
How foreign it is depends on the result on June 23rd.weejonnie said:
The best foreign sex seems to be in SwedenTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Was showing on both Thursday and Friday nights until a couple of weeks ago. Currently only on Thursday night due to Young Musician of the Year on Fridays evenings.foxinsoxuk said:
1981 is currently running on BBC4. Worth the licence fee on its own. We don't see much of the Nolans or Shakin Stevens nowadays.weejonnie said:
I thought all TOTPs had been bowdlerisedfoxinsoxuk said:On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
It's an ill wind that blows no good.0 -
Except Wales is even more Out than England on this polledmundintokyo said:On topic, maximum chaos would be Leave but with everyone except England on Remain.
Once the UK breaks up I suppose the English would end up rejoining the EU.0 -
The thing with local elections is that you sometimes get people being elected more on personal votes than party labels. I assume that's the case in Chipping Norton because in other years it's safely Tory. There's also a Labour councillor in Bassingbourn in South Cambridgeshire in a normally Conservative area.NeilVW said:Thanks for the spreadsheet Andy. Surprised that Chipping Norton has a Labour councillor with a 20-point majority.
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Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/0 -
Voluntarily, rather than a compulsory one, as currently?david_herdson said:
If people love it the they'd happily pay a subscription for it, presumably?murali_s said:
Relax! The BBC works. People love it. Job done. End of.chestnut said:
What competition is there for a business funded by a compulsory TV tax?Jonathan said:Schedule conflicts creates competition creates better TV.
Mad policy. Will damage Itv.
Right-wing nutters (and by Jove there are many on this blog - lol) who don't the BBC can f*ck off!
0 -
At a guess, because (1) it is news, and (2) the Mail does not own a string of television stations that would benefit from a hamstrung BBC.rottenborough said:Why is Mail running BBC as front page massive splash? Has Operation Save Jezza been in touch?
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The Observer's bar chart shows "Prefer Not to Say" as getting 32% in the Opinium poll. It also shows Remain, Leave and Don't Know as adding up to 97%. Three percent would be too big a rounding error for the sum of three percentages adding up to 100% but each rounded to the nearest 1%, but nobody at the Observer seems to have noticed. Goodness knows what happened to the other 2%-3%. That would seem to be too low a figure for Won't Vote.
Just going by the four options shown on the bar chart, we would get a distribution as follows:
Remain 33%
Leave 32%
Don't Know 11%
Prefer Not to Say 25%
Perhaps "Prefer Not to Say" includes "Won't Vote"?
These cod statistics do seem to be a bit of a moron's paradise.
Question: how does "Prefer Not to Say" fare in online polls as opposed to telephone polls?0 -
Losing any seats at this stage in a parliament when the government is facing massive opposition to key policies would absolutely be a disastrous result.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
Local government is where you build your support for the next GE. Without a strong base, you face further decline.
Look at the LDs through the last parliament. A constant stream of losses - end result being a wipeout at the GE
A credible Labour Party should be making gains up and down the country. Not the opposite.
(The same is true of any opposition - irrespective of party)
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You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm0 -
Governments are not generally at their weakest or most vulnerable a year after being re-elected. Labour performed poorly at the Local Elections of 1960 and 1961 but still went on to win in 1964. On the other hand, Labour did well at the May 1970 Local Elections but lost the General Election five weeks later!oxfordsimon said:
Losing any seats at this stage in a parliament when the government is facing massive opposition to key policies would absolutely be a disastrous result.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
Local government is where you build your support for the next GE. Without a strong base, you face further decline.
Look at the LDs through the last parliament. A constant stream of losses - end result being a wipeout at the GE
A credible Labour Party should be making gains up and down the country. Not the opposite.
(The same is true of any opposition - irrespective of party)0 -
Wikipedia reports 22 polls on the EU referendum carried out in April. Just for fun, here's a graph of how the Remain figure has fluctuated.
The trend line is quartic.
Please take this with a big helping of salt
And for balance, here's one with a trend line that's linear:
My only conclusion is that I'm happy with my investment in Leave at 2\1, implied probability 33%.0 -
I am not a Labour member!AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm0 -
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm0 -
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.justin124 said:
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.0 -
hmm looks like 5 seats could fall to the tories in Dudley with about a five per cent swing, is that because of Ukip doing well there I have read there was some controversy about a "mega mosque" being built there.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=00 -
They won't get it with with the oil price depressed.MTimT said:Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?0 -
To be honest , I did wonder about that!TheScreamingEagles said:
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.justin124 said:
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!0 -
Typical lazy labour voter..justin124 said:
To be honest , I did wonder about that!TheScreamingEagles said:
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.justin124 said:
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!0 -
Going back to the earlier discussion about Eurovision, I just found an interesting playlist on YouTube showing a simulation of the new two-part voting system
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUXldNM31mApuM9pKVsnLm95UJIU9njXF
It is too dull to watch all of it - but it is good to dip in and out of one of the jury voting ones and a couple of minutes from the televoting one
Will be very interesting to see how the simulation compares with the actual scoreboard!0 -
I assure you that I have a 100% voting record since being enfranchised at all elections! Indeed I favour a system of compulsory voting.RobD said:
Typical lazy labour voter..justin124 said:
To be honest , I did wonder about that!TheScreamingEagles said:
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.justin124 said:
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!0 -
The poll looks a tad dubious - how likely is it that all those Opposition parties would suddenly lose support and switch to the Tories? Far from convinced , but next Thursday should provide us with something more tangible.0
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"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/30/sadiq-khan-antisemitism-row-damages-labour-poll-hopes0 -
It is almost as if his long association with people who espouse extreme Islamic views would not have put them off already!AndyJS said:"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/30/sadiq-khan-antisemitism-row-damages-labour-poll-hopes
The greater threat is from secular people who are repulsed by Labour's current mess and decide not to vote at all or who transform to other parties.0 -
Ah I was just kidding, people on here don't tend to be apathetic when it comes to votingjustin124 said:
I assure you that I have a 100% voting record since being enfranchised at all elections! Indeed I favour a system of compulsory voting.RobD said:
Typical lazy labour voter..justin124 said:
To be honest , I did wonder about that!TheScreamingEagles said:
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.justin124 said:
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.AndyJS said:
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.justin124 said:
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!AndyJS said:
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.rottenborough said:
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.AndyJS said:Done a spreadsheet showing Labour council seat defences against the Conservatives compared to 2012 up to a swing of 10%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!0 -
Strictly - the ultimate in dumbed down TV!TheScreamingEagles said:Mess with Strictly and I'm voting Labour.
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His chances are Barely affected, I suspect he's just trying to ensure people don't stay home due to complacency, by making them fear it is close.AndyJS said:"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/30/sadiq-khan-antisemitism-row-damages-labour-poll-hopes0 -
I'm sure most Londoners can tell the difference between Khan and Livingstone - the greatest risk is Labour apathy "he'll win anyway so I don't need to vote "kle4 said:
His chances are Barely affected, I suspect he's just trying to ensure people don't stay home due to complacency, by making them fear it is close.AndyJS said:"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/30/sadiq-khan-antisemitism-row-damages-labour-poll-hopes0 -
It's the other way round. Tories had stopped backing the party. They are now in line again because of the monsters in the Labour party.justin124 said:The poll looks a tad dubious - how likely is it that all those Opposition parties would suddenly lose support and switch to the Tories? Far from convinced , but next Thursday should provide us with something more tangible.
0 -
Why is this so hard for people? To generate a 'significant change of circumstances' Scotland has to vote significantly different from the UK. If England votes Leave then the larger the Scotland Remain vote is the larger the justification for citing irreconcilable differences with the UK to justify IndyRef 2: Referendum Boogaloo.MTimT said:Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?0 -
But SNP supporters are not all for staying in the EU. They are the most sceptical after the Tories and the 7 UKIP supporters in Scotland.MTimT said:
An alternative logic could be for the SNP to call for their followers to boycott the referendum on the grounds that they should be independent and record Scotland's position on the EU separately, as opposed to being a small voice within the overall UK vote.kle4 said:
Wouldn't not voting risk leave winning in Scotland too, and so removing leaving as a justification for an IndyRef? Granted it's not close in Scotland, but best not risk it. There will always be another chance.MTimT said:Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?
That way, it doesn't matter if those who vote in Scotland vote remain or leave, as the SNP could assert "Well, we all know SNP polls 50% in Scotland and all our supporters are for staying in the EU, so if we hadn't boycotted the Sassenach referendum, obviously Scotland would have voted to remain."0