Labour’s task is put into sharp relief by the latest Sunday Times survey of local government by-election results. This shows Labour on 30%, down nine points compared with four years ago. The Tories have a national equivalent vote share of 31%, down two points. The Lib Dems continue to perform better at real elections than in the polls with a rating of 16%. Ukip is on 12% — equivalent to its performance at last year’s general election, but a long way short of their 2013-14 surge.
If those figures are reflected in the actual votes cast, Labour could lose about 150 seats in the English local elections, with each of its opponents making modest gains. It would mean Labour is stuck far below any level necessary for it to mount a convincing challenge at the 2020 general election.
However, with only a third of seats falling vacant in most councils, the scope for dramatic changes in political control is limited.
"For Labour to draw level with the Tories nationally, it needs a 16-point lead in London. And for the party to match the record of past oppositions that have gone on to win the following general election, Khan’s margin of victory needs to be at least 25 points."
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Hammond is the go to man for stabilising departments of concern. It could be either Health, DWP or Education.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.
Or in the immortal words of John Reid "Oh F*** not Health!"
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.
Or in the immortal words of John Reid "Oh F*** not Health!"
Yeah. he didn't fancying taking on all those militant Doctors.
Osborne couldn't really go to the backbenches - so where would he accept? FCO - what do you do with Hammond? Home Office - Mrs May wouldn't give that up without a fight.
Very tricky
Hammond has been tail end Charlie for a while.
He was going to be moved for Boris.
And Boris, after Thursday, will surely be looking for a job of his own - though I suspect he won't get one very quickly.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
After his performance so far in this referendum, Boris will be lucky if he gets made a PUSS at Northern Ireland.
Well quite... but he might get DCMS....
Surely Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs? They are responsible for circuses.
Sky: Ken can't remember why he started Hitler row that's engulfed the party. Extraordinary.
That's what happens if you are wankered by mid morning
Oh you are kidding me? A 5 day media firestorm days before the locals and the arsonist now says he had no idea why he was standing next to the barn with a petrol can and some matches.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
It's an ill wind that blows no good.
I thought all TOTPs had been bowdlerised
1981 is currently running on BBC4. Worth the licence fee on its own. We don't see much of the Nolans or Shakin Stevens nowadays.
On the other hand it does clear the Saturday night for repeats of 1981 TOTP, Portillo's railway journeys and repeats of old GE coverage. Perhaps even OGH and Kieren discussing poll weighting and AV.
It's an ill wind that blows no good.
I thought all TOTPs had been bowdlerised
1981 is currently running on BBC4. Worth the licence fee on its own. We don't see much of the Nolans or Shakin Stevens nowadays.
Was showing on both Thursday and Friday nights until a couple of weeks ago. Currently only on Thursday night due to Young Musician of the Year on Fridays evenings.
Thanks for the spreadsheet Andy. Surprised that Chipping Norton has a Labour councillor with a 20-point majority.
The thing with local elections is that you sometimes get people being elected more on personal votes than party labels. I assume that's the case in Chipping Norton because in other years it's safely Tory. There's also a Labour councillor in Bassingbourn in South Cambridgeshire in a normally Conservative area.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
The Observer's bar chart shows "Prefer Not to Say" as getting 32% in the Opinium poll. It also shows Remain, Leave and Don't Know as adding up to 97%. Three percent would be too big a rounding error for the sum of three percentages adding up to 100% but each rounded to the nearest 1%, but nobody at the Observer seems to have noticed. Goodness knows what happened to the other 2%-3%. That would seem to be too low a figure for Won't Vote.
Just going by the four options shown on the bar chart, we would get a distribution as follows:
Remain 33% Leave 32% Don't Know 11% Prefer Not to Say 25%
Perhaps "Prefer Not to Say" includes "Won't Vote"?
These cod statistics do seem to be a bit of a moron's paradise.
Question: how does "Prefer Not to Say" fare in online polls as opposed to telephone polls?
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
Losing any seats at this stage in a parliament when the government is facing massive opposition to key policies would absolutely be a disastrous result.
Local government is where you build your support for the next GE. Without a strong base, you face further decline.
Look at the LDs through the last parliament. A constant stream of losses - end result being a wipeout at the GE
A credible Labour Party should be making gains up and down the country. Not the opposite.
(The same is true of any opposition - irrespective of party)
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
Losing any seats at this stage in a parliament when the government is facing massive opposition to key policies would absolutely be a disastrous result.
Local government is where you build your support for the next GE. Without a strong base, you face further decline.
Look at the LDs through the last parliament. A constant stream of losses - end result being a wipeout at the GE
A credible Labour Party should be making gains up and down the country. Not the opposite.
(The same is true of any opposition - irrespective of party)
Governments are not generally at their weakest or most vulnerable a year after being re-elected. Labour performed poorly at the Local Elections of 1960 and 1961 but still went on to win in 1964. On the other hand, Labour did well at the May 1970 Local Elections but lost the General Election five weeks later!
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
hmm looks like 5 seats could fall to the tories in Dudley with about a five per cent swing, is that because of Ukip doing well there I have read there was some controversy about a "mega mosque" being built there.
Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?
They won't get it with with the oil price depressed.
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
To be honest , I did wonder about that! Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
To be honest , I did wonder about that! Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!
Going back to the earlier discussion about Eurovision, I just found an interesting playlist on YouTube showing a simulation of the new two-part voting system
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
To be honest , I did wonder about that! Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!
Typical lazy labour voter..
I assure you that I have a 100% voting record since being enfranchised at all elections! Indeed I favour a system of compulsory voting.
The poll looks a tad dubious - how likely is it that all those Opposition parties would suddenly lose support and switch to the Tories? Far from convinced , but next Thursday should provide us with something more tangible.
"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
Impressive. I see my old haunt of B'ham Northfield is in at No. 6.
187 seats are at risk to the Tories with a swing of 10%. John Curtice was predicting 170 losses recently. The list doesn't include councils affected by boundary changes like Milton Keynes and Bristol.
Losing 170 out of over 800 seats gained in 2012 would fall someway short of being disastrous!
You gained 534 not 800. Also, it could be a lot more than 170. 170 is likely if Labour are 2% behind in the popular vote according to John Curtis. Today's poll put you 8% behind.
From Wilkipedia . In 2012 Labour gained 823 seats with the Tories losing 405 and the LibDems 336.
2012 saw elections in Scotland and Wales, where Lab made a combined gain of 277.
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
To be honest , I did wonder about that! Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!
Typical lazy labour voter..
I assure you that I have a 100% voting record since being enfranchised at all elections! Indeed I favour a system of compulsory voting.
Ah I was just kidding, people on here don't tend to be apathetic when it comes to voting
"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
"Labour’s candidate for mayor of London accepts that the antisemitism row engulfing his party could harm his chance of pulling off a historic victory by becoming the first Muslim to occupy the post.
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
His chances are Barely affected, I suspect he's just trying to ensure people don't stay home due to complacency, by making them fear it is close.
I'm sure most Londoners can tell the difference between Khan and Livingstone - the greatest risk is Labour apathy "he'll win anyway so I don't need to vote "
The poll looks a tad dubious - how likely is it that all those Opposition parties would suddenly lose support and switch to the Tories? Far from convinced , but next Thursday should provide us with something more tangible.
It's the other way round. Tories had stopped backing the party. They are now in line again because of the monsters in the Labour party.
Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?
Why is this so hard for people? To generate a 'significant change of circumstances' Scotland has to vote significantly different from the UK. If England votes Leave then the larger the Scotland Remain vote is the larger the justification for citing irreconcilable differences with the UK to justify IndyRef 2: Referendum Boogaloo.
Surely, if the figures in the Opinium poll are correct, SNP should be arguing for Scots to not vote, so that Leave wins and they get their second referendum and hence independence?
Am I missing something? Maybe SNP not wanting independence at this time?
Wouldn't not voting risk leave winning in Scotland too, and so removing leaving as a justification for an IndyRef? Granted it's not close in Scotland, but best not risk it. There will always be another chance.
An alternative logic could be for the SNP to call for their followers to boycott the referendum on the grounds that they should be independent and record Scotland's position on the EU separately, as opposed to being a small voice within the overall UK vote.
That way, it doesn't matter if those who vote in Scotland vote remain or leave, as the SNP could assert "Well, we all know SNP polls 50% in Scotland and all our supporters are for staying in the EU, so if we hadn't boycotted the Sassenach referendum, obviously Scotland would have voted to remain."
But SNP supporters are not all for staying in the EU. They are the most sceptical after the Tories and the 7 UKIP supporters in Scotland.
Comments
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/the-real-vote-test
He was going to be moved for Boris.
Cameron isn't keen on reshuffles - and actually I think it is better for government for things to be kept as stable as possible.
Once the UK breaks up I suppose the English would end up rejoining the EU.
Hmm.
Even the Kippers are down, he's winning over the Leavers.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/725315632066088960
"Anti-semitism is bad because it means we can't discuss housing". That Observer editorial in full.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pnBJLqgQM7-03sOfkThVnJhg97hS_aSx9QS7FtNwGC4/edit#gid=0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/24/labour-set-for-worst-council-defeat-in-opposition-for-34-years/
They swiftly deleted the tweet and replaced it with the correct version, about Cameron making a powerful case for Leave.
In truth there is no point trying to calm civil war until after the referendum. You are wasting your cards until then.
O/T went to see Eye in the Sky tonight, well worth a watch
Just going by the four options shown on the bar chart, we would get a distribution as follows:
Remain 33%
Leave 32%
Don't Know 11%
Prefer Not to Say 25%
Perhaps "Prefer Not to Say" includes "Won't Vote"?
These cod statistics do seem to be a bit of a moron's paradise.
Question: how does "Prefer Not to Say" fare in online polls as opposed to telephone polls?
Local government is where you build your support for the next GE. Without a strong base, you face further decline.
Look at the LDs through the last parliament. A constant stream of losses - end result being a wipeout at the GE
A credible Labour Party should be making gains up and down the country. Not the opposite.
(The same is true of any opposition - irrespective of party)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/england.stm
The trend line is quartic.
Please take this with a big helping of salt
And for balance, here's one with a trend line that's linear:
My only conclusion is that I'm happy with my investment in Leave at 2\1, implied probability 33%.
There aren't council elections in Wales nor Scotland this year, so you're only defending 550 odd seats you gained in 2012.
Again though - do not assume I am a committed Labour voter. I have only voted Labour at one of the last five General Elections!
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUXldNM31mApuM9pKVsnLm95UJIU9njXF
It is too dull to watch all of it - but it is good to dip in and out of one of the jury voting ones and a couple of minutes from the televoting one
Will be very interesting to see how the simulation compares with the actual scoreboard!
With only days to go before voters go to the polls across Britain, Sadiq Khan admits that tens of thousands of Jewish voters in the capital may feel unable to back him following incendiary comments about Zionism and Hitler made by the last Labour occupant of the job, Ken Livingstone."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/30/sadiq-khan-antisemitism-row-damages-labour-poll-hopes
The greater threat is from secular people who are repulsed by Labour's current mess and decide not to vote at all or who transform to other parties.