politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015
Comments
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Sunil - Well even more ammunition for the climate change deniers then0
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Mike Ross was selected for the LDs in Hull North a few weeks ago.
The Labour majority over the LDs is only 641 votes although I don't think it'll be close in 2015.0 -
Re Venice - a number of years ago The Royal College of Psychiatrists had a conference at San Servolo, rather ironic given that it was an island where the mentally ill had been housed.0
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Full details of the Nielsen poll here: http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/nielsen-130824.png0
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Well Rio has turned out to be a bit of a laugh. Had my passport nicked, been subjected to various attempted scams and have ended up staying here longer than expected. The British consulate was top class. It's always good to see a Union Jack in times of difficulty when abroad. Having one final caipirinha as the sun goes down on the Copacabana Bay. Then it's off to the airport and, hopefully, a flight home. Brazil is a great country, Rio is a wonderful city; there are exciting opportunities here. But be careful. I speak from experience!!0
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How can you "deny" something that's being going on since aeons ago! The Ice Age climate was cooler than today, during the Cretaceous (as in the end of the dinosaur era) the climate was warmer.HYUFD said:Sunil - Well even more ammunition for the climate change deniers then
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Don't Look Now is a bit of a bizarre title for the film actually.AndreaParma_82 said:Don't look now is one of those movies with a bizarrely translted in Italian title....it's called "A Venezia... un dicembre rosso shocking" which means "In Venice...a shocking red December"
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Sunil - My post was on the Oz elections and its potential implication for UK politics, I have no interest in discussing the finer points of climate change and whether it does or does not exist this evening!
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Abbott's a more competent political operator than most political pundits realise. He did far better than expected in 2010, yet was still underrated.HYUFD said:Interestingly if Abbott does win, it will mean Australia has the most rightwing government in the western world, even Cameron, Key and Merkel generally accept climate change and gay marriage which Abbott does not and Harper in Canada also accepts gay marriage. Indeed, an Abbott win will certainly increase the confidence of the Tory right, many will be asking if a rightwinger like Abbott can win when Cameron cannot maybe lessons need to be learned. David Davis will also be pleased, he holds similar views to Abbott and is sceptical about climate change and voted against gay marriage, he also has a similar hardman personality
I think that the comparison with David Davis is apt.
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IshmaelX ..I dont give a flying feck about tim personally .. apart from thinking he is an appalling sample of a human being and far too pitiful to bully.. I just have a go at him when he repeatedly has a go at others who cannot defend themselves.. the man is a self confessed liar and probably the worst bully on PB0
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If the ladyboyz don't get you the pickpockets will. I don't blend in here!tim said:
Hope that's not cover for an unfortunate ladyboy mix upSouthamObserver said:Well Rio has turned out to be a bit of a laugh. Had my passport nicked, been subjected to various attempted scams and have ended up staying here longer than expected. The British consulate was top class. It's always good to see a Union Jack in times of difficulty when abroad. Having one final caipirinha as the sun goes down on the Copacabana Bay. Then it's off to the airport and, hopefully, a flight home. Brazil is a great country, Rio is a wonderful city; there are exciting opportunities here. But be careful. I speak from experience!!
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@Perdix
Yes, it is very familiar. It is one of the areas of economics that I always had greatest difficulty with. It is an axiom of liberal, western economics that free trade is an undiluted good from which everyone gains. The view is that that those that use mercantilism ultimately hurt themselves by subsidising production that does not have a comparative advantage and therefore amounts to a misallocation of resources reducing their efficiency.
I was never really persuaded by this. The growth of China in particular demonstrated its absurdity as did the earlier Japanese destruction of so many of our domestic manufacturing industries. Mercantilism works and giving WTO status to China was a serious mistake. Not only are the benefits of international trade taken almost exclusively by the better off but some countries clearly gain far more from it than others specifically those that run long term surpluses.
Like the Japanese deficit before it the huge China/US deficit is a strategic weakness which has given China unhealthy influence over their economy and policy. I think the west in general has been deluded about this and will pay a heavy price.0 -
On Topic:
I've backed the Lib Dems losing their deposit in 0 - 50 seats in the next GE. The odds of 9/4 with Paddy power look distinctly more attractive than the 7/8 on offer (2 bets at 11/4) to cover the range of 51 - 100 seats.
Ultimately the party is not likely to pour cash needlessly down the drain and if things look dire it is likely to decide that discretion is the better part of valour by drastically reducing the number of seats it ultimately contests. Plus there are another 21 months to go to recover their ratings and as was the case in 2010 it should be remembered that they ultimately fared far better than appeared at this stage of the cycle.
I could be proved wrong but this looks like easy money to me, sadly PP would only allow me to wager £15.0 -
It's a debate of long-standing. Should right-wing parties pitch their appeal to "the classes" or "the masses". For Cameron, it's the former. For Abbott (or John Howard) the latter.HYUFD said:Sunil - My post was on the Oz elections and its potential implication for UK politics, I have no interest in discussing the finer points of climate change and whether it does or does not exist this evening!
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Ishmael X I dont give a flying feck about tim.. he is too pathetic to bully..very funny tho, causes a lot of amusement and now has a fetish about the half naked PM..weird
If you think this is bullying you should have gone to my school.0 -
Of course we want higher wages, in the same way we want good weather. But, you don't get either by decree.DavidL said:
He said:dr_spyn said:Ed lashes out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23814938
Mr Miliband attacked Mr Cameron's claim Britain is in a "global race" with emerging nations, saying the country could not hope to compete with them on wages or employment rights and should concentrate instead on building a different kind of economy, with more investment and higher wages for the "working poor".
"The reason the Tories are satisfied and they think things are going well is that they have incredibly low expectations about what can be achieved for people," he told Labour members.
He said he felt "more confident" than when he won the Labour leadership three years ago and vowed to win the 2015 election.
A different kind of economy. That sells? That is bought by? Presumably the logic is that these emerging nations want to have all the poorly paid jobs and leave the high value, high paid ones to us. Just desperate. Really desperate.
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It's based on a du Maurier short story of the same name. There have been a few theories on the title, most noting to her 'link' to Venice; the best I've read, summed up, is that you may not like what you see.Andy_JS said:
Don't Look Now is a bit of a bizarre title for the film actually.AndreaParma_82 said:Don't look now is one of those movies with a bizarrely translted in Italian title....it's called "A Venezia... un dicembre rosso shocking" which means "In Venice...a shocking red December"
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LD Local election results.peter_from_putney said:in 2010 it should be remembered that they [LDs] ultimately fared far better than appeared at this stage of the cycle.
2006: 25%
2007: 26%
2008: 25%
(2010 general election: 23%)
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
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You can decree lower taxes, higher post tax wages.Sean_F said:
Of course we want higher wages, in the same way we want good weather. But, you don't get either by decree.DavidL said:
He said:dr_spyn said:Ed lashes out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23814938
Mr Miliband attacked Mr Cameron's claim Britain is in a "global race" with emerging nations, saying the country could not hope to compete with them on wages or employment rights and should concentrate instead on building a different kind of economy, with more investment and higher wages for the "working poor".
"The reason the Tories are satisfied and they think things are going well is that they have incredibly low expectations about what can be achieved for people," he told Labour members.
He said he felt "more confident" than when he won the Labour leadership three years ago and vowed to win the 2015 election.
A different kind of economy. That sells? That is bought by? Presumably the logic is that these emerging nations want to have all the poorly paid jobs and leave the high value, high paid ones to us. Just desperate. Really desperate.
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Went to the seaside for a couple of days. What happened yesterday in the locals ? Is it Ed is Crap ?0
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SeanF - Indeed, and David Davis would have been in the latter camp with Abbott and Howard too (as indeed would Thatcher). Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand would be with Cameron and appealing to the elites. Really you need both.0
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anotherDave - Feel free to prove me wrong but iirc in 2008 the LibDems were regularly opinion polling around 13%-15%. I remember this well because on the strength of these polls I had a bet with OGH as to how badly they would fare at the 2010 GE (below 17% I recall), which I lost comprehensively - fortunately settling early thereby limiting my losses.0
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SeanF - Indeed, Abbott has been a formidable opposition leader, whether he will be an effective prime minister though is another question altogether, I certainly do not see him as another Howard or Hawke0
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No mate, it appears that this week Dave is crap instead.surbiton said:Went to the seaside for a couple of days. What happened yesterday in the locals ? Is it Ed is Crap ?
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The state is not subsidising private sector landlord rents, tim.tim said:Sean_F said:
Of course we want higher wages, in the same way we want good weather. But, you don't get either by decree.DavidL said:
He said:dr_spyn said:Ed lashes out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23814938
Mr Miliband attacked Mr Cameron's claim Britain is in a "global race" with emerging nations, saying the country could not hope to compete with them on wages or employment rights and should concentrate instead on building a different kind of economy, with more investment and higher wages for the "working poor".
"The reason the Tories are satisfied and they think things are going well is that they have incredibly low expectations about what can be achieved for people," he told Labour members.
He said he felt "more confident" than when he won the Labour leadership three years ago and vowed to win the 2015 election.
A different kind of economy. That sells? That is bought by? Presumably the logic is that these emerging nations want to have all the poorly paid jobs and leave the high value, high paid ones to us. Just desperate. Really desperate.
The state can stop subsidising landlords rents and coffee shops low wages and move money into infrastructure, long term a well educated healthy and mobile workforce should be the aim, not maintaining landlords profit margins or the price of a latte in Leicester Square
Where the heavy subsidy is provided is in the social housing sector.
We need to get to the bottom of this in the run up to the election, as "building 500,000 affordable houses" looks like being a Miliband pledge.
As an example of how opaque the finances and cost-benefit of the sector is, download the "Annual Report" of the Wirral based "Magenta Living". Not a balance sheet to be seen. Not even a statement as to who owns the freeholds. And no clearly identifiable Statement of Revenues and Expenses.
Just a multi-page colouring book style set of cartoons for tenants to chuck in Wirral wheelie bins.
The whole sector needs radical reform. And the first step must be transparency of costs, revenues and funding.
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Mostly high-mid teens.peter_from_putney said:anotherDave - Feel free to prove me wrong but iirc in 2008 the LibDems were regularly opinion polling around 13%-15%. I remember this well because on the strength of these polls I had a bet with OGH as to how badly they would fare at the 2010 GE (below 17% I recall), which I lost comprehensively - fortunately settling early thereby limiting my losses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010#2008
But then, do we trust polls!!!???0 -
Winston Churchill's great granddaughter Isabella Soames got 11 A*s in her GCSEs:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/08/23/winston-churchill-relative-isabella-soames-model-gcses_n_3803299.html
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/sir-winston-churchills-model-greatgranddaughter-aces-her-gcses-with-11-as-8780173.html
She's also a model for Storm:
http://www.stormmodels.com/IsabellaSoames.html?boardId=893720 -
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Again ? Yet this month wassupposed to be Ed is Crap. THe Tories and their newspapers told us so. You can't believe the election results , can you ? Tune into Dan Hodges.Richard_Tyndall said:
No mate, it appears that this week Dave is crap instead.surbiton said:Went to the seaside for a couple of days. What happened yesterday in the locals ? Is it Ed is Crap ?
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The direct beneficiaries of housing benefit payments are the tenant.tim said:@Avery
How much does the state pay private landlords in housing benefit?
The rents then paid to landlords are barely sufficient to cover the costs of maintaining the properties they manage (and the annual printing of glossy colouring books).
Do the rents cover the cost of land purchase?
Of capital depreciation of the structure?
Do they provide the Housing Associations with sufficient surpluses to enable new stock to be developed and supporting commercial loans to be serviced?
Do they provide sufficient surpluses to attract private sector investment?
etc. etc.
My guess is that these are all QTWTAIN.
And that the associated costs are all state subsidies.
[ToriesItchen4Rowenna are now diverting their attention to Sky News paper review]
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Personally I am of the 'they are all crap' (and that includes the blessed Farage) camp. But no one listens to me much round here so I will go back to playing with my toy soldiers. :-)surbiton said:
Again ? Yet this month wassupposed to be Ed is Crap. THe Tories and their newspapers told us so. You can't believe the election results , can you ? Tune into Dan Hodges.Richard_Tyndall said:
No mate, it appears that this week Dave is crap instead.surbiton said:Went to the seaside for a couple of days. What happened yesterday in the locals ? Is it Ed is Crap ?
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I know this is probably very un-pc but that girl needs a damn good meal. She is way to skinny.Andy_JS said:Winston Churchill's great granddaughter Isabella Soames got 11 A*s in her GCSEs:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/08/23/winston-churchill-relative-isabella-soames-model-gcses_n_3803299.html
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/sir-winston-churchills-model-greatgranddaughter-aces-her-gcses-with-11-as-8780173.html
She's also a model for Storm:
http://www.stormmodels.com/IsabellaSoames.html?boardId=893720 -
Syria: Finger Pointing..but not officially.
Whilst France and the UK have pointed the finger at what they believe is a firm regime chemical weapons attack, the US is still talking its 'concern'.
Last night I pointed out that is likely that no-one needed to go look, the US & Israelis had big ears and could likely tell what was going down, potentially before it occurred.
Now reports have it that indeed comms intercepts and eyes on chemical weapons stores in the days upto the incident suggested Assad's forces prepping and the US intelligence 'leans towards' a chemical weapons attack having occurred. This I would take as much as a positive ID as the footage itself as there has been media manipulation on both sides in the past.
Question is, is it a red line crosser or is it not and if there is an international response what would it be? Not responding if the chemical weapons strike is confirmed issue is basically opening carte blanche for the use of such special weapons. Thats equally as awkward as doing something of a response so I' say if everything is confirmed its 50-50 some kind of action would occur.
If such a response came to pass, the obvious answer might be to punish Assad's regme via taking out those chemical weapons..and maybe a few bits of infrastructure as well, as a 'don't do it again'. I doesn't tip a balance even if it weakens Assad noticeably but it certainly shows that it could be tipped.
We shall see. As I mentioned Wednesday there is the possibility that even Obama can't avoid this one if its confirmed.
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@surbiton - Actually Richard T's summary's not quite right. What you've missed is:
- GDP figures being revised up, and the economy rebalancing nicely, providing further proof (if any were needed) of Osborne's skill in rescuing the economy from the dire straits he inherited
- The curious spectacle of the Guardian suddenly finding that it does support freedom of the press after all
- Statistics showing the housing market is recovering nicely, but with no sign of an unsustainable boom
- A Labour councillor resigns in response to serious allegations which he denies, not that you'd know he's a Labour councillor by reading the BBC account, of course
- A string of senior Labour figures saying Ed is crap, and multiple polls confirming voters feel the same. Most people have lost interest in this, of course, because it's now accepted fact0 -
Mostly high-mid teens.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010#2008
But then, do we trust polls!!!???
Apols - I was a year out - I struck my bet with OGH in Autumn 2007 (not 2008) when the polls were showing the LibDems as having between 11% - 17%.
My point still stands however - there's plenty of time for them to improve to at least the mid to high teens thereby drastically reducing their number of lost deposits, even if they still lose a good number of seats at the GE.
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All parties have hard core voters who vote their party no matter what the tactical voting potential is. If the LibDems poll 12% nationally ( though 15% would be more reasonable). In how many seats would this drop below 5%? Probably very few, to me the less than fifty seems the value.
As TSE thinks differently it does look as if the bookie has pitched the odds about right.anotherDave said:
Mostly high-mid teens.peter_from_putney said:anotherDave - Feel free to prove me wrong but iirc in 2008 the LibDems were regularly opinion polling around 13%-15%. I remember this well because on the strength of these polls I had a bet with OGH as to how badly they would fare at the 2010 GE (below 17% I recall), which I lost comprehensively - fortunately settling early thereby limiting my losses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010#2008
But then, do we trust polls!!!???0 -
PPP Ohio 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rand Paul (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Paul Ryan (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 35%
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That's quite a persuasive comparison.anotherDave said:
LD Local election results.peter_from_putney said:in 2010 it should be remembered that they [LDs] ultimately fared far better than appeared at this stage of the cycle.
2006: 25%
2007: 26%
2008: 25%
(2010 general election: 23%)
2011: 15%
2012: 16%
2013: 14%
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Eagles floundering on Newsnight on HS2 finances.
Is there any real talent on the opposition front bench?0 -
There's certainly time for them to improve. But absolutely no sign of it. Their poll numbers have been flat since late 2010, and their local election results are also very consistent.peter_from_putney said:
My point still stands however - there's plenty of time for them to improve to at least the mid to high teens thereby drastically reducing their number of lost deposits, even if they still lose a good number of seats at the GE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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The guy at the bottom here, John Kasich, is a floater for the GOP nomination. Done decent work on the Ohio economy apparently and has a fairly conservative side n the social front. This of course is his home state so his ok polling figures compared to the others will have a skew, but he'd be interesting if he runs for the nomination. I would take odds on him for a speculation.HYUFD said:PPP Ohio 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rand Paul (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Paul Ryan (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 35%
Christie appears to be a juggernaut and is quite happily ruffling feathers. His support as GOP Governor in Chief in upcoming elections will also give him a chance to wheel and deal at state level GOP politics. The lesson of the last two GOP nominations is back the most middle of the road guy there is in the field. The average Joe GOP primary voter is not half as radical as the noise makers in the party would suggest. I would venture to suggest they will ultimately get over his praise for Obama after the hurricane so he may take some stopping despite the possible presence of Marco Rubio & Jeb Bush ahead of him in some POTUS betting markets.0 -
Kaisch isn't very popular in Ohio. He may be one of the reasons why Republican candidates are polling so low against Hillary there.Y0kel said:
The guy at the bottom here, John Kasich, is a floater for the GOP nomination. Done decent work on the Ohio economy apparently and has a fairly conservative side n the social front. This of course is his home state so his ok polling figures compared to the others will have a skew, but he'd be interesting if he runs for the nomination. I would take odds on him for a speculation.HYUFD said:PPP Ohio 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rand Paul (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Paul Ryan (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 35%
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Yokel - On those figures it will not matter who they nominate, Hillary will run over them. Romney lost Ohio by 3, even Christie loses it by 9. On that basis the GOP may decide it is better to pick someone with their heart than their head, and Rand Paul could get it0
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On that basis the Liberals will get 13% in 2015, exactly the total they got in 1979, pre-SDP0
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No growth in GDP per capita.john_zims said:@Tim
'Still no movement in the polls though'
Plenty of time,another six quarters of good growth and maybe some policies from Labour...
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/370902943798542336
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The guy had a lead until recently I believe in the polls, and 40 odd percent, thats not exactly unpopular. The fight for Ohio, which had a Democrat last time as governor, is tight enough. If he was getting a trouncing I'd take your point but he isn't yet at least.edmundintokyo said:
Kaisch isn't very popular in Ohio. He may be one of the reasons why Republican candidates are polling so low against Hillary there.Y0kel said:
The guy at the bottom here, John Kasich, is a floater for the GOP nomination. Done decent work on the Ohio economy apparently and has a fairly conservative side n the social front. This of course is his home state so his ok polling figures compared to the others will have a skew, but he'd be interesting if he runs for the nomination. I would take odds on him for a speculation.HYUFD said:PPP Ohio 2016
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Chris Christie (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Jeb Bush (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Rand Paul (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Paul Ryan (R) 36%
Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 35%
HYUFD, maybe so, but I don't quite buy that idea yet. They were on a hiding to nothing in 2008 and still picked the most mainstream guy going.
Ive done well out of the last two GOP nomination processes even if my POTUS state betting record stinks so I'll stick with what Im thinking until I see evidence.0 -
Zactly zo. Median income might be a good metric for making the same point also.anotherDave said:
No growth in GDP per capita.john_zims said:@Tim
'Still no movement in the polls though'
Plenty of time,another six quarters of good growth and maybe some policies from Labour...
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/3709029437985423360 -
2008 was different, the GOP was the incumbent party so picked an experienced guy to try and see off the youthful Obama. In 2016 having tried two moderates who lost, and with Hillary probably likely to beat all-GOP comers the GOP base may well rather have a campaign for someone they really believe in as they did with Goldwater in 1964. In any case, if an anti-gay marriage, anti-big government climate change sceptic like Abbott can win in Oz, it could certainly happen in the US which is even more conservative0
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The problem for me is that Ive heard the heart-chosen sacrifice idea two elections running and it didnt pan out. The GOP went with their heads. Will this time be different? Always possible but I see no evidence yet.HYUFD said:2008 was different, the GOP was the incumbent party so picked an experienced guy to try and see off the youthful Obama. In 2016 having tried two moderates who lost, and with Hillary probably likely to beat all-GOP comers the GOP base may well rather have a campaign for someone they really believe in as they did with Goldwater in 1964. In any case, if an anti-gay marriage, anti-big government climate change sceptic like Abbott can win in Oz, it could certainly happen in the US which is even more conservative
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Twitter
David Prescott @DavidPrescott 1h
We've seriously got to question the quality of advice that's been given to our leader0 -
Yokel - McCain and Romney were both mainstream GOP establishment in a way Christie is not and both were pushed hard for the nomination, McCain did not beat Huckabee until March, Romney did not beat Santorum or Gingrich until April/May.0
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Neither McCain nor Romney ever embraced Obama in the last stage of a general election campaign unlike Christie, the GOP base will not forget that, and in an election between Hillary and Christie most hardcore conservatives Republicans will see little difference0
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That I don't argue with but both won out and thats thing, they won the nominations which for my position is all that matters. Christie is the anti-party party man at the moment and certainly is showing plenty of signs of being willing to give it a go.0
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Indeed, but McCain and Romney had the organisational network, links within the party and donors Christie does not. I see Christie winning NH, but someone like Paul winning Iowa and SC and the momentum to the nomination, although it will be tight0
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Those are interesting graphs. 2008 is very flat because of being GDP per capita. We have had growth both in population and GP. In 1973, 1979 and 1990 the population was not growing at anything like the rate of 2008, indeed for some of the seventies there was net outward migration.anotherDave said:
No growth in GDP per capita.john_zims said:@Tim
'Still no movement in the polls though'
Plenty of time,another six quarters of good growth and maybe some policies from Labour...
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/3709029437985423360 -
Go have a wee break from PB, you have been posting all day. It will give us all a rest from at least one of your obsessive fixations for a few hours. Insulting posters who post things you don't want highlighted on the site is what you do 24/7.tim said:
I assume you weren't trying to mislead and have followed that thread.fitalass said:Twitter
David Prescott @DavidPrescott 1h
We've seriously got to question the quality of advice that's been given to our leader
It seems you are posting tweets that criticise Miliband for looking at the last Labour Govts record with a critical eye.
I can understand if you are disappointed by the PM Porpoise, but please don't try to confuse yourself or others through contrived ignorance.
Daves fat, he's red, he doesn't win elections.
Live with it.0 -
@foxinsoxuk, going off topic, did you enjoy your train journey in Europe with your son?0
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Christie has a good opportunity to build that though the chair of the governors association. Its an easy excuse to go touring.HYUFD said:Indeed, but McCain and Romney had the organisational network, links within the party and donors Christie does not. I see Christie winning NH, but someone like Paul winning Iowa and SC and the momentum to the nomination, although it will be tight
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(OT) An amusing conversation on Twitter (For the benefit of decent civilized people I have translated it from Twitterese into Normal):
Sadiq Khan MP (Labour, Tooting
Join me and Sarah Jones at Croydon Central Station at 12.45 tomorrow to campaign against Great Tory Train Robbery
Gavin Barwell MP (Conservative, Croydon Central)
Er, there is no Croydon Central station (unless you're suggesting someone's stolen it?)
Andrew Rendle
At least he got the right borough. Where did Mayor of London get off when he was visiting our town...?
Andrew Pelling (former MP for Croydon Central, now Labour)
Yes it was your Conservative/Liberal Unionist government when Croydon Central station was closed 1890 after Epsom line extension was axed.
Gavin Barwell MP
You were a Conservative back then weren't you Andrew?
Andrew Pelling
Similar times 1890 & 2013 - the Tory PM an Old Etonian - Conservatives hardly a party offering progress.0 -
Oh dear, yet more insults. And now you are projecting your pom pom waving cheerleader's smear as 'so many others' in yet another nasty little meme directed at me. That is just so sad for a man who cannot seem to get through a thread I post on without responding to me, so much so that you feel the need to bitch about me even when I am absent. I tend to find it really easy to ignore you these days because your just so transparent when you go trolling other posters with nasty little memes in an attempt to divert threads from topics that don't suit your agenda. You have been busy posting since this morning, I have enjoyed a busy day with work and family. And yet you are still here at this time on an English Bank holiday weekend sucking soor plums and trying to troll anyone who might take you on.....
8141 posts since Vanilla came in with bans included, says it all really.tim said:
I wasn't aware you'd been insulted, is this the usual passive aggressive thing so many others have highlighted ?fitalass said:Go have a wee break from PB, you have been posting all day. It will give us all a rest from at least one of your obsessive fixations for a few hours. Insulting posters who post things you don't want highlighted on the site is what you do 24/7.
tim said:
I assume you weren't trying to mislead and have followed that thread.fitalass said:Twitter
David Prescott @DavidPrescott 1h
We've seriously got to question the quality of advice that's been given to our leader
It seems you are posting tweets that criticise Miliband for looking at the last Labour Govts record with a critical eye.
I can understand if you are disappointed by the PM Porpoise, but please don't try to confuse yourself or others through contrived ignorance.
Daves fat, he's red, he doesn't win elections.
Live with it.0 -
Opened in 1868, it was open for only 22 years.JohnLoony said:
Andrew Pelling (former MP for Croydon Central, now Labour)
Yes it was your Conservative/Liberal Unionist government when Croydon Central station was closed 1890 after Epsom line extension was axed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croydon_Central_railway_station0 -
@Tim What on earth are you on about?! You are utterly obsessive in your fixation with me, it began a long time ago when you crossed the line on this site and received a short term ban on the back of a really nasty post directed at me. My husband was on the site that night, you showed scant regard for me or him, and now you are trying this meme. You need help, you are now not only creepy, but bordering on threatening.0
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(Just in case nobody has answered elsewhere in the thread (which I haven't read yet):TheScreamingEagles said:Does anyone have the General election turnout figures for Scotland in the GEs held in 1970 and 1974 (February & October)?
If so, could your provide the figures/links.
Ta.
February 1974: 2,887,075 out of 3,655,621 = 79.0%
October 1974: 2,758,101 out of 3,686,792 = 74.8%
source: "Britain Votes: 1974-77" by F.W.S. Craig page 228
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