politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015
A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds.
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Marque Senile will fund the party from all those investments in Greek growth. We all know when your at the bottom of a pit a shovel is the best tool to climb out of it, innit...?
50th worst performance last time: Glasgow South 11.8%
75th worst performance last time: Croydon Central 13.2%
100th worst performance last time: Croydon North 14.0%
125th worst performance last time: Ashton under Lyne 14.8%
150th worst performance last time: South Holland 15.5%
If they start to lose deposits, then they start to topple like ninepins. On this logic either or both extremes are likely to provide the value.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGtQck5wOU5mN1lQSjIydkZRQTNWbFE&usp=drive_web#
Tissue Price is also I think right to point to the 150+ band. That's 9/2 on a catastrophic performance in seats where the LibDems will be making no effort. Can't be a bad bet.
What do we reckon the LD's national vote share is going to be? 13%?
This may be worth a read.
http://wales.gov.uk/docs/desh/publications/130816economic-impact-of-developing-marine-energy-en.pdf
England are currently 20 with Betfair to win the Oval Test Match. I think that's value because all they have to do is draw level with Australia and they're instantly favourites.
Off topic, Ladbrokes have finally settled the bet on Jeremy Paxman's beard.
It's all a bit Selfies In Underpants.
Heaven forbid that some of a half naked Gordon Brown turn up .. calamity in Cheshire if a swimsuit clad Osborne comes on the scene.
Nice to see someone come out of the closet so late in life, must be some sort of relief.
Conversely they need to still be batting tonight to avoid the follow on. On this wicket they really should but if they lose wickets the scoring rate will fall even further.
Is it somewhat brave to assume the LibDems will have enough money to stump up those deposits in the first place?
An interesting stat is Lib Dem lost deposits in Scotland in 2011 (ok, different / smaller constituencies but still) was 25.
I make it 16 lost deposits in Wales in the same year (from a quick scan of wiki so may have that slightly wrong).
Sorry Richard - I dont think <50 is the value bet here!
[actually, I am of the view that that was very shoddy journalism that didn't do politics in general any favours]
“In order for Hancock to have access to [her] home she would have had to have let him in. In other words, she clearly consented to any actions about which she now makes complaint.”
Good luck with that one. The full allegation is pretty dark:
“It is not a trivial complaint that Hancock attempted to force his tongue into her mouth, that he tried to part her legs with his foot or that he exposed his penis and invited her to masturbate him. Nor is it a trivial complaint that Mr Hancock used his position and status as both an MP and councillor to target, groom and exploit for his own purposes a vulnerable woman.”" (Guido).
Who could forget Scrutton LJ: “When you invite a person into your house to use the staircase you do not invite him to slide down the banisters”
Bit more than sliding down the banisters..,
"sliding down the banisters..."
A euphemism is born.
If so, could your provide the figures/links.
Ta.
Also, I owe Jade Dernbach and Samit Patel apologies, they're not the worst players to play for England.
Step forward Chris Woakes and Simon Kerrigan.
They went from respectable third place finishes with 16% in Rotherham to 2.1% and finishing eighth behind the likes of the Judean People's Front and People's Front for Judea.
http://tinyurl.com/mkyg4mj
...
"What on Earth do you think you're doing, Plato?"
"Only sliding down the banisters."
I can only assume that's only part of the defence, but I shan't speculate.
"A ‘hungry and dehydrated’ parrot that was picked up by two farmers in Suffolk shocked its rescuers when it took hold of the steering wheel of their combine harvester and drove home unaided for 20 minutes. The confident bird was found by Mark Wells and Andrew Barber, both 40, who work at the George E Gittus & Sons farm in Bury St Edmunds.
Wells and Barber stopped harvesting wheat as soon as they spotted a spark of colour in the field, and jumped from their machine to pick the macaw from the stalks below. Believing the exotic bird to be a lost pet, the farmers decided to take it back with them in the hope they could trace its owner.
What they didn’t expect, however, was to see the colourful macaw grasp the wheel with its beak before steering the Claas Lexion 600 combine across the field for 20 minutes before reaching the farmers’ truck. ‘It’s odd enough to find a bird like that just hopping around a field in England – but to stumble across a bird that can steer a combine harvester is crazy,’ said Georgie Wells, Mark’s wife. ‘It was amazing.’ The workers nicknamed the parrot Rio, describing him as a ‘natural operator’. http://metro.co.uk/2013/08/23/anything-but-beak-n-mild-macaw-takes-wheel-of-combine-harvester-and-drives-home-3935433/
NB I assume you are referring to the difference between a handrail and a banister - perhaps this is one of those cases where the wrong word is now in such wide use that it's literally becoming the right word?
Off to CIF / ConHome with you all!
[Well apart from the fact that cricket is always on-topic....]
I wonder if there is a clever bookie that is willing to tempt a bored puntah with an offering that England will fail to match the follow-on before the end of this test? * As Welshowl has pointed out the weather for tomorrow is poor: Sunday is just as bad according to the weather channel....
* OK, no more Yorkshiremen to bat, but that is a doubled-edge sword. We all knew Bresnan could bat....
Who'll come a-losing Deposits with me ?
Is a lost deposit based on a very low percentage of the vote or a very low number of votes?
Eric Pickles @EricPickles
Come on #keighleytowncouncil ,and the rest, don't be so soft let the cameras in
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/08/for-the-middle-classes-things-can-only-get-worse/
If Cameron resembles Steven Seagal, which actor does Ed Miliband resemble?
The Bill does make sense from a Tory point of view as officially independent but in reality Labour-aligned organisations has always been a way for Labour to get round the electoral rules and even up the funding. However I think the basic dishonesty of it is one of the things that rotted Labour.
Having lots of rules especially for 12 months before any election seems a bit over-complicated though - better to have no rules and just ban it completely for six weeks before an election instead imo. Keep it simple.
(Unless of course it's another thing claiming to be about whatever but really aimed at blogs and the internet.)
Obviously leaving out the other bit of lobbying where lobbyists buy politicians to be paid PR reps for various corporatist or subsidy farming scams is a lot worse in most ways but if Labour get squeered on this (yes it's a made-up word and i don't care) then they might be forced into coming up with a more honest (and probably Scandinavian) form of political funding across the board.
Yes, that's probably why it's only theoretically possible.
"Now here's a suggestion: why don't we all agree to forget about the whole nonsense and let people spend money and time on whatever campaigns they like?"
Should have guessed it was going to be for a ****** political class reason like that.
Edit: linky - wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Diamond
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:
CDU/CSU: 41%
FDP: 6%
[47%]
SPD: 25%
Green: 13%
Left: 8%
[46%]
Others: 7%
Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 42%
FDP: 5%
[47%]
SPD: 24%
Green: 12%
Left: 9%
[45%]
AfD: 3%
Pirates: 2%
Others: 3%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
@Tim
"In those days they didn't believe the crime figures and claimed immigrants were taking all the jobs."
Which crime figures?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html
Youth gangs are a natural thing and if the police harass the **** out of them then they can be kept down to say 4-6 individuals per estate. If for some reason the police are prevented from doing anything about a particular gang culture when it's small then it will grow. If it grows to the point where it's no longer 4-6 individuals per estate but say 18-24 of them then if say 6 of them do something, say gang-rape a girl who won't sleep with one of them voluntarily, then the family of the victim has to balance reporting it with the protection currently available from the law (minimal) and the threat of retaliation from the other 18 (very high).
So what the BBC and political class have created on the inner-city hell estates through covering this up as it grew is effectively an organized crime problem where the threat of retaliation outweighs the protection of the law. It's a very disorganized and chaotic version of organized crime obviously but it's the same in that critical factor - the threat of retaliation outweighs the protection of the law. That's why these gangs can do what they like.
The police can't do anything about it - apart from trawl for knives to keep the body-count down - because the public don't know it's happening and the public don't know it's happening because the BBC and the political class are covering it up like they covered up the grooming gangs.
I don't know what the deposit criterion was in Papua New Guinea under FPTP:
2002 Papua New Guinea Election – Ijivitari
Candidate Votes Pct
John David Boino 2,042 6.6
Cecilking DORUBA 2,397 7.7
Douglas Garawa 1,633 5.3
Benson Garui 2,092 6.7
Russel Ikosi 1,819 5.9
Simon Banamba Kaumi 2,241 7.2
Solomon Kimai 1,638 5.3
Jackson Marauri 1,606 5.2
31 other candidates 15,600 50.2
Doruba was elected with 7.7% of the vote, defeating the sitting MP Kaumi, who was defeated after polling just 7.2%.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/04/candidate-elected-with-just-72-of-the-vote-under-fptp.html
We should have a good old debate about electoral reform in PNG!
What there should be is an honest analysis of cost and benefits using standard processes. Instead what we are having are groups inventing figures to meet their own worldview.
Darling's assumption that if HS2 is cancelled, the money would be spent on the rest of the network is rather funny! But not as ludicrous as his claim that the WCML had been ignored for thirty years ...
I'm half-expecting Labour to announce that if they win the election, HS2 will be cancelled with the money going into renationalisation of the network ...
http://hopisen.com/?p=5807
As the emerging economies run down their holdings to protect their currencies there will be a lot of selling pressure. This may be particularly acute in London which had one of the deepest and most liquid markets that attracted more than it's fair share of this money.
In the long run this is a good thing. If more of our debt is owned domestically and less internationally the interest on it will be less of a drag on our growth. In the short run it will push up medium to longer term interest rates perhaps putting something of a dampener on the rapid growth of business investment reported this morning.
Which rather puts me off taking him seriously on anything anymore.
He reckons that a grand coalition is the most likely outcome - whatever the SPD is currently saying. This - according to him - means Germany will become considerably more willing to allow ECB money printing, a little bit of inflation, and the end of 'the austerity drive'.
We shall see.
I hate paywalls. I wish the newspapers could get together and give you a pay-per-story approach.
It'll be an interesting forerunner of British politics in one way - the FDP (free-market pro-business liberals, quite a bit to the right of the British)) are clearly going to get hammered, but not nearly as massively as once seemed likely. Merkel might well like carrying on with them - a weakened junior partner seems a restful option. But will they feel oh God, we nearly got wiped out, we need some time in opposition, or hey cool, we did much better than we feared, let's carry on?
Deputy leader of Rotherham Council Jahangir Akhtar has stood down. It's over allegations made in The Times today. More @BBCLookNorth 1830
Save your money - just wait an hour then watch BBC.
It is sometimes quite hard to know how to word something on PB, especially when mentioning something you have heard on the radio.
Apparently he has temporarily stepped down.
The gist.
" Four women are planning to sue Rotherham Council for “systemic failures to protect them from sexual abuse by predatory men when they were children”, according to their lawyers...
A girl in the care of social services was allowed extensive daily contact with a violent adult offender who was suspected of grooming more than a dozen young teenagers to use and sell for sex. Police and social services held detailed intelligence about the activities of Arshid Hussain. He has not, however, yet been prosecuted for a child-sex offence." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/crime/article3851263.ece