Aside from the fact that all these IN or YES or TAKE ME NOW FRANCE voters are UTTER traitors we need to factor in the emotional backlash from all this.
As I've been saying for months - when I first predicted a REMAIN win - I cannot see how it fails to follow the Scottish model. REMAIN wins, and then Britain, especially the rightwing, will be engulfed in turmoil and self hatred, as we deal with out national inability to defeat these europhile quislings, and, let's be fair, our own failure of nerve.
The emotional reaction will be identical to that in Scotland, certainly on the right. Tories will turn on Cameron. He will be hated as The Great Betrayer. Worse than Heath. C*nts like Matthew Parris will endure intolerable scorn.
The Tories will need a very seriously eurosceptic leader to unite behind.
It fails to follow the Scottish model because for most voters it's not a big issue. It is for some and they will be very angry about it. As you imply, they will mainly be dyed-in-the-wool Tories and UKIPers, so a relatively small part of the population. Turnout for the EU referendum will not be close to the turnout in Scotland back in 2014.
Agreed, in terms of nationwide politics.
But internal rightwing politics will exactly follow the Scottish precedent,
There is no way a perceived europhile, even a euro-neutral, will lead the Tory party for the foreseeable future
The eurosceptics will lose the national war but win the party battle. We will have another vote within 10-15 years, and the issue will SO not go away (probably to Labour's benefit, as the voters see Tories as obsessed).
Yes, I agree, though for as long as the Corbynistas control Labour it won't make much difference electorally. It'll happen either way, though, as Betrayal will be the theme once Brexit negotiations begin. The Tories are eating themselves
Labour's task is relatively easy if they can get rid of Corbyn, and replace him with someone even vaguely normal.
Simply point at the Tories, and ask the electorate if they can trust them to be honest about anything.
Aside from the fact that all these IN or YES or TAKE ME NOW FRANCE voters are UTTER traitors we need to factor in the emotional backlash from all this.
As I've been saying for months - when I first predicted a REMAIN win - I cannot see how it fails to follow the Scottish model. REMAIN wins, and then Britain, especially the rightwing, will be engulfed in turmoil and self hatred, as we deal with out national inability to defeat these europhile quislings, and, let's be fair, our own failure of nerve.
The emotional reaction will be identical to that in Scotland, certainly on the right. Tories will turn on Cameron. He will be hated as The Great Betrayer. Worse than Heath. C*nts like Matthew Parris will endure intolerable scorn.
The Tories will need a very seriously eurosceptic leader to unite behind.
Even if such a person won the leadership election, they'll have a devil of a job getting at least half the party to trust and believe them, and then stay as members.
Cameron and Osborne have salted the earth.
Whilst a waverer at times I've voted tory all my life but would never again believe any conservative leader who said he or she was a eurosceptic.
This referendum is revealing a great deal and for me it's an extremely bitter experience already.
I sincerely hope no tory canvassers come to my door in E&W, Mr John O.
Well, as you live in one of the safest RA wards, I think I can safely say this is unlikely. Which probably suits us both in the circumstances.
But we still run a pretty good council though, wouldn't you agree?
Yes, Esher and Walton is great to live in. Recently there was an incident with some travellers pitching up near me and I was extremely impressed with the way the whole thing was handled efficiently and yet with a light touch, so to speak.
I'm surprised its 90% out, what you hear on the doorstep, very interesting nevertheless.
Thanks and that is encouraging to hear. BTW, after six years which I have enjoyed enormously and hope to have done some good, I'm stepping down as leader, though I hope my residents in Hersham will see me returned. But fair do's if I've outstayed my welcome.
Best of luck Mr O!
Thanks, that's kind of you.
I hope your excellent stewardship of Elmbridge sees you suitably rewarded with a peerage.
Aside from the fact that all these IN or YES or TAKE ME NOW FRANCE voters are UTTER traitors we need to factor in the emotional backlash from all this.
As I've been saying for months - when I first predicted a REMAIN win - I cannot see how it fails to follow the Scottish model. REMAIN wins, and then Britain, especially the rightwing, will be engulfed in turmoil and self hatred, as we deal with out national inability to defeat these europhile quislings, and, let's be fair, our own failure of nerve.
The emotional reaction will be identical to that in Scotland, certainly on the right. Tories will turn on Cameron. He will be hated as The Great Betrayer. Worse than Heath. C*nts like Matthew Parris will endure intolerable scorn.
The Tories will need a very seriously eurosceptic leader to unite behind.
Even if such a person won the leadership election, they'll have a devil of a job getting at least half the party to trust and believe them, and then stay as members.
Cameron and Osborne have salted the earth.
Whilst a waverer at times I've voted tory all my life but would never again believe any conservative leader who said he or she was a eurosceptic.
This referendum is revealing a great deal and for me it's an extremely bitter experience already.
I sincerely hope no tory canvassers come to my door in E&W, Mr John O.
Well, as you live in one of the safest RA wards, I think I can safely say this is unlikely. Which probably suits us both in the circumstances.
But we still run a pretty good council though, wouldn't you agree?
Yes, Esher and Walton is great to live in. Recently there was an incident with some travellers pitching up near me and I was extremely impressed with the way the whole thing was handled efficiently and yet with a light touch, so to speak.
I'm surprised its 90% out, what you hear on the doorstep, very interesting nevertheless.
Thanks and that is encouraging to hear. BTW, after six years which I have enjoyed enormously and hope to have done some good, I'm stepping down as leader, though I hope my residents in Hersham will see me returned. But fair do's if I've outstayed my welcome.
Best of luck Mr O!
Thanks, that's kind of you.
I hope your excellent stewardship of Elmbridge sees you suitably rewarded with a peerage.
Probably a life sentence in the Tower if Ms Tremayne has 'her' way.
Dave and George's strategy working once again it appears, despite the doubts.
Yes, but they are destroying theies are facing a long time in the wilderness, IMO.
Country before Party some might say.
You can see where the End Game is and it'll be all thanks to Cameron and Osborne.
Still we've got the destruction, humiliation and evisceration of Osborne to savor first so it's not all bad news...
This is all very reminiscent of ConHome in the run up to the 2007 Tory conference, when every Dave and George hater were predicting Dave would be out by 2008.
Yo But it's enough. You think this country isn't good enough to survive on her own? VILE.
Yes, but your earlier post certainly conveyed the impression that you yourself could vote no safe in the knowledge that remain will win.
n't trust the polls.
Argh, goddamn it. You were my litmus test for the referendum result.
Here in NE Hants, I think the split I'm "feeling" exactly reflects the polls. I think we'll break 55:45 Remain atm.
Look, I honestly don't know and this very evening
Democracy is Wonderful and Trust the People almost an axiom. Collectively, they seldom get it wrong.
No. You're a traitor.
You know I ess it iwill soon be back to the colestomy bag insults. OK.
Try not being a traitor then. Just an idea.
Consider it as a new hobby: ooh look, I can NOT betray my country. This is fun! We can govern ourselves!
But at least I can say that I wouldn't betray my country because of the property prices in my already hugely expensive part of town. Oh the anguish of being a patriot.
Er, I'm voting OUT. And this DESPITE the admitted and scary short-term hit to my personal wealth - I admit Brexit will hit London property.
Why? Because I want my daughters to inherit a noble and magnificent country which has the courage to choose temporary hardship in return for future self respect (and prosperity). And because my political judgments are not governed entirely by money.
You, by contrast, are a traitor.
Ah bless, climb every mountain, ford every stream, follow every by-way until you find your dream.
Aside from the fact that all these IN or YES or TAKE ME NOW FRANCE voters are UTTER traitors we need to factor in the emotional backlash from all this.
As I've been saying for months - when I first predicted a REMAIN win - I cannot see how it fails to follow the Scottish model. REMAIN wins, and then Britain, especially the rightwing, will be engulfed in turmoil and self hatred, as we deal with out national inability to defeat these europhile quislings, and, let's be fair, our own failure of nerve.
The emotional reaction will be identical to that in Scotland, certainly on the right. Tories will turn on Cameron. He will be hated as The Great Betrayer. Worse than Heath. C*nts like Matthew Parris will endure intolerable scorn.
The Tories will need a very seriously eurosceptic leader to unite behind.
It fails to follow the Scottish model because for most voters it's not a big issue. It is for some and they will be very angry about it. As you imply, they will mainly be dyed-in-the-wool Tories and UKIPers, so a relatively small part of the population. Turnout for the EU referendum will not be close to the turnout in Scotland back in 2014.
Agreed, in terms of nationwide politics.
But internal rightwing politics will exactly follow the Scottish precedent,
There is no way a perceived europhile, even a euro-neutral, will lead the Tory party for the foreseeable future
The eurosceptics will lose the national war but win the party battle. We will have another vote within 10-15 years, and the issue will SO not go away (probably to Labour's benefit, as the voters see Tories as obsessed).
Yes, I agree, though for as long as the Corbynistas control Labour it won't make much difference electorally. It'll happen either way, though, as Betrayal will be the theme once Brexit negotiations begin. The Tories are eating themselves
Labour's task is relatively easy if they can get rid of Corbyn, and replace him with someone even vaguely normal.
Simply point at the Tories, and ask the electorate if they can trust them to be honest about anything.
Big Labour win in 2025 I reckon.
Or sooner. The Tories barely scraped a majority in 2015. You think they'll improve on that in 2020? Not with a massively reduced membership, half of which is hostile, deeply suspicious and reluctant to bankroll the party, campaign on it's behalf or possibly even vote. They've got problems.
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
Dave and George's strategy working once again it appears, despite the doubts.
Yes, but they are destroying theies are facing a long time in the wilderness, IMO.
Country before Party some might say.
You can see where the End Game is and it'll be all thanks to Cameron and Osborne.
Still we've got the destruction, humiliation and evisceration of Osborne to savor first so it's not all bad news...
This is all very hater were predicting Dave would be out by 2008.
Yo But it's enough. You think this country isn't good enough to survive on her own? VILE.
Yes
n't trust the polls.
Argh, goddamn it. You were my litmus test for the r
Here in NE Hants, I think the split I'm "feeling" exactly reflects the polls. I think we'll break 55:45 Remain atm.
Look, I honestly don't know and this very evening
Democracy is Wonderful and Trust the People almost an axiom. Collectively, they seldom get it wrong.
No. You're a traitor.
You know I ess it iwill soon be back to the colestomy bag insults. OK.
Try not being a traitor then. Just an idea.
Consider it as a new hobby: ooh look, I can NOT betray my country. This is fun! We can govern ourselves!
But at least I can
Er, I'm voting OUT. And this DESPITE the admitted and scary short-term hit to my personal wealth - I admit Brexit will hit London property.
Why? Because I want my daughters to inherit a noble and magnificent country which has the courage to choose temporary hardship in return for future self respect (and prosperity). And because my political judgments are not governed entirely by money.
You, by contrast, are a traitor.
Ah bless, climb every mountain, ford every stream, follow every by-way until you find your dream.
(Chances are you'll be voting remain next month).
No, I'm voting LEAVE
And you're a traitor.
Let us devise a constitutional settlement over one of your exquisite red wines. I may, no promises mind, purchase anothet of your books and if you are particularly hospitable, read the one I have already bought, perhaps two years ago. Now where is it?
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
Indeed but I think with his loss yesterday and further big Trump wins likely next week he will still be too far behind, Cruz has set himself up as next in line in 2020 though should Trump lose in November
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
Indeed but I think with his loss yesterday and further big Trump wins likely next week he will still be too far behind, Cruz has set himself up as next in line in 2020 though should Trump lose in November
There are 172 delegates (I think) up for grabs next week in CT, DE, MD, PA, RI -and Trump is ahead by 14-20% in each state.
He might get 1237 but it'll be close. It all comes down to June 7 in CA and NJ.
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
What, like one delegate flipped? I shouldn't read too much into these things.
Anecdote alert: I sold my car today, to the Webuyanycar people (it was 11 years old and creaking at the seams, and I don't actually need a car). The buyer was a nice, professional guy who recently immigrated from the Virgin Islands. I mentioned my former job and he said wryly, "You people think we're all tax dodgers, but now I'm here I want to vote for what's best for Britain. What do you recommend?"
I said Remain. Hmm, he said, he was leaning to Leave, but wanted to hear the detailed arguments.
So perhaps Leave just needs an influx from the Virgin Islands to swing it...
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
What, like one delegate flipped? I shouldn't read too much into these things.
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
Indeed but I think with his loss yesterday and further big Trump wins likely next week he will still be too far behind, Cruz has set himself up as next in line in 2020 though should Trump lose in November
There are 172 delegates (I think) up for grabs next week in CT, DE, MD, PA, RI -and Trump is ahead by 14-20% in each state.
He might get 1237 but it'll be close. It all comes down to June 7 in CA and NJ.
I'm afraid that's what comes of putting idealistic ivory tower Tories in charge of anything. Haven't got the balls or the brains they were born with, or Daniel Hannan would be running the Tory party.
I think this is right.
Michael Gove's speech, with all his high-flown abstract stuff about "democratic liberation", is not sell-able to Joe Public. They want to hear what specifically what leaving the EU will do (on immigration, national security, NHS, etcetc.), not grand flowery rhetoric.
I thought that as I listened to it
It has sunk without trace - that LEAVErs are silent on the Albanian model is telling......
Speaking to a number of people yesterday it does seem recent propaganda suggesting households will be worse off by £4300 is having an effect on voting intentions. It is important the Leave campaign nail this particular lie as a top priority.
Cruz does it again - first Colorado, then Wyoming, and now my home state of Georgia where it looks like Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump in delegates again - even though Trump won the primary.
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
Excelling at these particular kind of machinations is not a quality I find particularly admirable or desirable in a potential POTUS.
I must say, this referendum is giving me I feel a bit more of a window of what it must be like to be in a political party, the more closed off parts anyway. I like to think I'm not vociferous or overbearing in my opinions offline, but I don't seem to come across anyone who has a good word to say about the EU, to such a degree it seems unlikely those many of those same people are Remainers (plenty of people who despise UKIP openly though).
Seeing and hearing that, it makes it harder for me to think sometimes how Leave could possibly not win, it's so obvious how 'normal' people feel about things. Obviously I know it will be closer, but I feel like it is comparable to wrapping oneself in a party echochamber, convinced the public at large are with you because everyone from your sociology class at the organic coffee shop or everyone from your local hunt agreed with you.
I do think Leave will edge it, I think the status quo (or what is presented as it at any rate) is so lacking in passionate support it's advantage is lessened for one, but I feel like I must be on edge from being swept up in what appears a tide in my favour.
Good night.
Maybe you should circulate a bit more. Funny, I have not across anyone yet who is voting for Brexit.
Aside from the fact that all these IN or YES or TAKE ME NOW FRANCE voters are UTTER traitors we need to factor in the emotional backlash from all this.
The Tories will need a very seriously eurosceptic leader to unite behind.
Even if such a person won the leadership election, they'll have a devil of a job getting at least half the party to trust and believe them, and then stay as members.
Hence while uniting any time soon looks unachievable. Some have outright said things would be fine if the leader were for Leave, no trouble in the party, but as much as people talk about the payroll vote and threats from the leadership, since Cameron and his clique are being called out as ardent europhiles, it is inconceivable to me that some of those backing Remain are not, you know, genuine Remainers. I don't doubt some of the 150+ Tory Mps backing Remain are gutless and backing the leadership, but even optimistically for Leave plenty of them must be true believers.
If Cameron is knifed after a Remain win, those Remainer MPs don't seem likely to take it kindly (if Leave win I think the fight will go out of them in the short term at least). Take him out too soon after a Remain win and the trouble flares up even under a more skeptic but acceptable figure, but if he remains in place too long, on his current schedule, and the Leavers would I guess not see the point in pretending unity, since the longer Cameron stays on the better chance he can hand over to a successor of his ilk.
So really I think they would be well served in holding off the Letters to spark a contest for a bit, let the anger simmer, then make sure he knows he ain't lasting till 2019/20 and force a contest in 2017.
I cannot see the Tory party calmly reuniting after this likely REMAIN win. The bitterness will be intense. The enraged and sceptic grassroots of the Tory party will rebel against a europhile leader. Osborne hasn't got a hope.
The man is a snake. I will personally derail him with my **** ********* ******** story if it ******* ********* ***** to it.
As I've been saying for aeons, after the REMAIN win, bet on a sceptic leader. It will be the only way to keep the party together.
Jesus, I feel emotional now, contemplating defeat. Imagine the feelings after an actual defeat? They will shake the Tory party to its roots. Europhiles will not benefit, to put it mildly.
I must say, this referendum is giving me I feel a bit more of a window of what it must be like to be in a political party, the more closed off parts anyway. I like to think I'm not vociferous or overbearing in my opinions offline, but I don't seem to come across anyone who has a good word to say about the EU, to such a degree it seems unlikely those many of those same people are Remainers (plenty of people who despise UKIP openly though).
Seeing and hearing that, it makes it harder for me to think sometimes how Leave could possibly not win, it's so obvious how 'normal' people feel about things. Obviously I know it will be closer, but I feel like it is comparable to wrapping oneself in a party echochamber, convinced the public at large are with you because everyone from your sociology class at the organic coffee shop or everyone from your local hunt agreed with you.
I do think Leave will edge it, I think the status quo (or what is presented as it at any rate) is so lacking in passionate support it's advantage is lessened for one, but I feel like I must be on edge from being swept up in what appears a tide in my favour.
Good night.
Maybe you should circulate a bit more. Funny, I have not across anyone yet who is voting for Brexit.
I must say, this referendum is giving me I feel a bit more of a window of what it must be like to be in a political party, the more closed off parts anyway. I like to think I'm not vociferous or overbearing in my opinions offline, but I don't seem to come across anyone who has a good word to say about the EU, to such a degree it seems unlikely those many of those same people are Remainers (plenty of people who despise UKIP openly though).
Seeing and hearing that, it makes it harder for me to think sometimes how Leave could possibly not win, it's so obvious how 'normal' people feel about things. Obviously I know it will be closer, but I feel like it is comparable to wrapping oneself in a party echochamber, convinced the public at large are with you because everyone from your sociology class at the organic coffee shop or everyone from your local hunt agreed with you.
I do think Leave will edge it, I think the status quo (or what is presented as it at any rate) is so lacking in passionate support it's advantage is lessened for one, but I feel like I must be on edge from being swept up in what appears a tide in my favour.
Good night.
Maybe you should circulate a bit more. Funny, I have not across anyone yet who is voting for Brexit.
I must say, this referendum is giving me I feel a bit more of a window of what it must be like to be in a political party, the more closed off parts anyway. I like to think I'm not vociferous or overbearing in my opinions offline, but I don't seem to come across anyone who has a good word to say about the EU, to such a degree it seems unlikely those many of those same people are Remainers (plenty of people who despise UKIP openly though).
Seeing and hearing that, it makes it harder for me to think sometimes how Leave could possibly not win, it's so obvious how 'normal' people feel about things. Obviously I know it will be closer, but I feel like it is comparable to wrapping oneself in a party echochamber, convinced the public at large are with you because everyone from your sociology class at the organic coffee shop or everyone from your local hunt agreed with you.
I do think Leave will edge it, I think the status quo (or what is presented as it at any rate) is so lacking in passionate support it's advantage is lessened for one, but I feel like I must be on edge from being swept up in what appears a tide in my favour.
Good night.
Maybe you should circulate a bit more. Funny, I have not across anyone yet who is voting for Brexit.
What part of the country do you live ? France ?
Surbiton.
Are you sure you circulate,you have not come across no one for brexit.
Speaking to a number of people yesterday it does seem recent propaganda suggesting households will be worse off by £4300 is having an effect on voting intentions. It is important the Leave campaign nail this particular lie as a top priority.
They did this with AV as well. It's hard to counter because even if you do the numbers seriously and convince the voters the number is really only 500 pounds, you're still losing. Alternatively you counter with an outlandish number in the opposite direction, and the voters conclude they have no idea who's right, which also means you lose.
Just passed through Stonehouse on the London train from Gloucester.. An allotment field had what looked like new Flags ofSt George flying over 3 of the pitches.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAtx-Sx9yDg
(Chances are you'll be voting remain next month).
Even the general public are now beginning to realize that votes cast and delegates earned have at best a tenuous connection, and the process is fundamentally flawed, and rigged against newcomers and non-politicians.
Rules are rules, and Cruz is much better at the machinations than Trump.
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/crime/14433084.Man_responsible_for__terrifying__knife_attack_had_illegally_returned_to_the_UK//
When the police just arrived at this house,I was walking past,the screams/wailing coming from this woman's relatives will live long on the memory.
This is another reason why I want to leave the EU.
He might get 1237 but it'll be close. It all comes down to June 7 in CA and NJ.
Carson picked up a belated delegate in NC also...
I said Remain. Hmm, he said, he was leaning to Leave, but wanted to hear the detailed arguments.
So perhaps Leave just needs an influx from the Virgin Islands to swing it...
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/18/politics/georgia-delegate-donald-trump-ted-cruz/
Frankly she should not be allowed to run. What she has done is terrible."
Trump's sons could not vote in New York because , wait, they were too late to register !
They did this with AV as well. It's hard to counter because even if you do the numbers seriously and convince the voters the number is really only 500 pounds, you're still losing. Alternatively you counter with an outlandish number in the opposite direction, and the voters conclude they have no idea who's right, which also means you lose.
Or something like that.
Something like that.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayoral-election-zac-goldsmith-has-mountain-to-climb-as-sadiq-khan-stretches-poll-lead-a3230406.html
"Respect’s George Galloway is hardly troubling the scorer."