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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes becomes the 6th successive pollster to report moves to REMAIN compared with their last surveys
In terms of polling it’s been a devastating day for those wanting the UK out of the EU and the worst survey of all for them has just been published in the Mail. On standard methodology REMAIN is 11% ahead but when its new “turnout model” is applied this move to 16%.
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The Day The Polls Turned (copyright The Guardian)
Gove and pals say delay invocation of Article 50 (formal departure procedure from the EU) until... unspecified date at which every duck will be positioned rowwise.
That is tantamount to ignoring the referendum.
Specifically, REMAIN forces could stall as all the inevitable breakup issues arise, then get the government after the next election to renegotiate an EU membership deal and put it to the people.
She's very worried about restricting immigration at all (she and I slightly at odds here) but likes Vote Leave's message on democracy, science, innovation and entrepreneurial dynamism.
She is also open to admitting the best people from across the world.
Remain cannot get complacent, but nor should Leave give up (or overreact like babies at the reporting of Remain doing well).
I accept my gut is not a great predictor generally, however. EICIPM!
When Labour forms it's next government and they're doing everything they can to submerge us into the Euro and the USE how on Earth will the Tory Party be able to go from their absolute devotion and love for all things EU that we currently see to defending the Pound and British government?
The Tories are a busted flush. They've nailed their colours to the mast and they are as devoted to the EU project as the rest. There will be absolutely nobody left to defend this country from the next impending wave of integration.
You can see where the End Game is and it'll be all thanks to Cameron and Osborne.
Still we've got the destruction, humiliation and evisceration of Osborne to savor first so it's not all bad news...
If net immigration remains at the current levels for the next few years (and the next stats release is May 26 - so that could be key in the debate), the Tories are going to have a big problem convincing Tory-Ukip undecideds to vote Tory to keep out Labour and the SNP.
If the vote is to leave, then we leave, and we will also need a new PM to take charge of the process of withdrawal.
I am now a firm Remainer but if the people decide otherwise, then no obstacle must be placed to frustrate their decision.
I'm willing Labour to ditch Corbyn and get someone credible so we can give the Conservatives the pasting they deserve.
As it is I would almost certainly vote for Jezza over Osborne anyway (but I accept most people won't)
Will this affect remains chances even though Norway is not in the E.U?
Hopefully after this huge lead for remain, leave will finaly get their s*it together, and it looks like crosby was right the propaganda leaflet has had an effect.
GET OSBORNE OUT
Even if it means we have to let Jezza in.
- those who perceive a big risk in leaving are modest in number compared to those who perceive a small risk or no risk;
- there is risk in staying in as the Eurozone becomes ever more dominant. Think of being trapped in orbit around a black hole and being pulled inexorably towards the event horizon;
- having repudiated the EEA option LEAVE can campaign strongly on border control.
It's one thing backing REMAIN, but the extreme arguments and tone they have used means they have burnt their bridges as far as even moderate eurosceptics are concerned.
However, I do believe that it is as certain as these things can be that there will be an attempt by the PLP to oust Corbyn in the not too distant future but not, I think, in 2016.
Right-wingers are now threatening to vote Ukip next time. Won't happen.
Tories vote Tory, the iron law of UK politics. With the exceptions of Greg Mulholland and Nick Clegg in 2015, this law has almost never been broken.
This country is awesome and the bestest in the whole world.
What other country could see a former drug addict become such a successful author?
And I really enjoyed your Bhutan piece.
BTW I must be one of the infinitesimal number of posters who is already out and about campaigning, albeit for the local elections. Naturally we don't ourselves raise the referendum on the doorstep but a fair few of our residents bring it up spontaneously and 90% of them are for Leave. And this is a prosperous part of Surrey. I'm a Remainer but increasingly I don't trust the polls.
I'm afraid that's what comes of putting idealistic ivory tower Tories in charge of anything. Haven't got the balls or the brains they were born with, or Daniel Hannan would be running the Tory party.
Here in NE Hants, I think the split I'm "feeling" exactly reflects the polls. I think we'll break 55:45 Remain atm.
Night.
Cameron and Osborne have salted the earth.
Michael Gove's speech, with all his high-flown abstract stuff about "democratic liberation", is not sell-able to Joe Public. They want to hear what specifically what leaving the EU will do (on immigration, national security, NHS, etcetc.), not grand flowery rhetoric which is only "inspiring" to political wonks.
Remain have gotten quite good at saying what specifically they think the EU does (even if their claims are very dubious), with their claims of "Brexit will cost every household £x000" - a marked improvement on the abstract stuff like "Britain's place in the world" which they were trying to peddle early in the campaign.
Democracy is Wonderful and Trust the People almost an axiom. Collectively, they seldom get it wrong.
This referendum is revealing a great deal and for me it's an extremely bitter experience already.
I sincerely hope no tory canvassers come to my door in E&W, Mr John O.
If Cameron is knifed after a Remain win, those Remainer MPs don't seem likely to take it kindly (if Leave win I think the fight will go out of them in the short term at least). Take him out too soon after a Remain win and the trouble flares up even under a more skeptic but acceptable figure, but if he remains in place too long, on his current schedule, and the Leavers would I guess not see the point in pretending unity, since the longer Cameron stays on the better chance he can hand over to a successor of his ilk.
So really I think they would be well served in holding off the Letters to spark a contest for a bit, let the anger simmer, then make sure he knows he ain't lasting till 2019/20 and force a contest in 2017.
Democracy is Wonderful and Trust the People almost an axiom. Collectively, they seldom get it wrong.
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Nice sentiments John but it's a shame your party leadership doesn't share them. Force-feeding the public blatant propaganda isn't about trusting the people.
Seeing and hearing that, it makes it harder for me to think sometimes how Leave could possibly not win, it's so obvious how 'normal' people feel about things. Obviously I know it will be closer, but I feel like it is comparable to wrapping oneself in a party echochamber, convinced the public at large are with you because everyone from your sociology class at the organic coffee shop or everyone from your local hunt agreed with you.
I do think Leave will edge it, I think the status quo (or what is presented as it at any rate) is so lacking in passionate support it's advantage is lessened for one, but I feel like I must be on edge from being swept up in what appears a tide in my favour.
Good night.
But we still run a pretty good council though, wouldn't you agree?
Roll on the next leadership election. Then I can vote for anyone but the twat from Tatton, bin my membership and take great delight in telling the party to Foxtrot Off when they pester me for money again.
I'm surprised its 90% out, what you hear on the doorstep, very interesting nevertheless.
Question - if I decided to mark the boxes in valid fashion, but then also wrote on the paper that picking party hacks for PCCs is a terrible idea, would that remain a valid vote? I couldn't be identified from it and my choice would still be clear.
I know no-one would care what I wrote, but with the PCCs I begin to see why people have the urge to write things on their ballots.
Watched a interview with crabb and you could tell even he didn't believe the bull of what he was saying,he looked very uneasy.
This today and with cameron/osborne bull has made me realise what a bunch of lying bast*rds we have in power.
Simply point at the Tories, and ask the electorate if they can trust them to be honest about anything.