Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tories could be being complacent over Jeremy Corbyn

Much comment has been passed this week on David Cameron’s falling ratings. He now ranks behind Jeremy Corbyn on favourability ratings with YouGov. “How low he has sunk” is the usual comment, and it is true.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
1. The UK votes Remain by the narrowest of margins
2. Some Tory Leave voters shift to UKIP
3. The Tories pick Osborne after Osborne manages to exclude Boris from the final ballot
Even Corbyn could win then. Admittedly a combination of all 3 is unlikely
If true (about the previous cases), I agree with you on the rest.
If he could speak and project himself like Cameron he would be a winner. His policies and values in general are more popular than the Tories.
Surely Erdogan is going to end up the victim of the Streisland Syndrome? Far, far more people will now see the video than if he'd shut up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36046323
Am I being a complete b****rd for having absolutely no sympathy?
They don't want to/can't pay the fees for a permanent mooring, so are going for the cheap option of claiming to be navigating somewhere. But because they want to stay in one place for work or childrens' schooling, they would rather stay at the free moorings for people on the move - and just go back and forth between the free moorings along a stretch to stay in the area.
Even the report states that Published [Canal and Rivers Trust] guidance to boaters specifically states: "Unacceptable reasons for staying longer than 14 days in a neighbourhood or locality are a need to stay within commuting distance of a place of work or of study (eg a school or college)."
Maybe I'm getting hard of heart but this is pretty weak sob story.
Boundary changes mean Labour need bigger swing than Blair got to even get a minimum majority and that ain't going to happen
Tories are split at the moment but have 4 years to pull back together
Tories reason to be is to win elections, hence will pick a leader who will win ie if Ossie looks bad, no chance of winning
Tories want Corbyn in position until 2020 so are holding off attacking him until 2018/19
Tories will have so much dirt on Corbyn, McDonnell to use from 2018/9 onwards that they can destroy them easily
World getting a scarier place. Party strongest on security will win, and that will never be a Labour party run by a pacifist
Labour controlled by Momentum will have loony policies by the bucket load and bonkers extreme lefty candidates
But the British public can be unpredictable at times.
Terrible polling for George at any rate.
Merkel has brain fade in Summer 2015 decides to invite in all and sundry from all points S East, other countries refuse to fall in behind her attempted diktat to take in large numbers of those she's encouraged, gets domestic grief when inevitably problems arise, early 2016 starts realising it's unworkable, kowtows to Turkey in desperation to stem the flow she's helped make worse, and then gives the nod (apparently) to some comedian going to trial for making fun of Turkey's leader because the poor leader is allegedly upset.
Her spin doctor must be a jibbering wreck.
I shouldn't, but I am.
That doesn't mean the Conservatives should indulge in five years of infighting - the electorate does have limits to its tolerance - but being in the middle of one of those periods of infighting right now is not a representative place for the whole of the parliament.
I am even more sceptical about mid term opinion polls than I am about pre-GE polls. Only the very politically engaged is going to be remotely interested, even the fair weather political geeks will have lost interest for another few years. Plus these "next prime minister" polls are a harmless way of registering a vote of discontent with your party or leader without actually risking getting the wrong chap in power. This might apply both ways with Labour voter being dissatisfied with Corbyn and Tories with Osbrown. Likely to get more accurate results flipping a coin.
Someone should go up to him and say: "Do you want a career or do you want to support Remain?"
Has Merkel said she found it 'personally offensive' "persönlich beleidigend" ?
1. A complain is recieved
2. A state prosecutor is appointed
3. They investigate and decide if there is a case to answer
I think we're at stage 2. I think we would still get to stage 2 with Kim Jong Il.
Is Kim Kong Un next in the queue if somebody mocks his barber's skill on German Friday night telly? Going to look great for Merkel if some other German comedian does that, and Kim Jong Un did officially complain. What does Merkel do then? Mega popcorn all round.
There's a reason why Corbyn is considered a risk to national security by the voters.
On R4 WATO Classic piece of stupidity from Frances O'Grady Head of TUC. "Heads of unions are accountable to their members". She ignores the fact that the union only has 6 members and hundreds of thousands of pounds are being controlled by it.....
Frances then goes on to try and divert the argument onto the "Heads of large corporations" a typical oh look over there its worse, now lets change the subject.
http://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_stgb/englisch_stgb.html#p1035
The relevant bits seem to be:
(1) Whosoever insults a foreign head of state, or, with respect to his position, a member of a foreign government who is in Germany in his official capacity, or a head of a foreign diplomatic mission who is accredited in the Federal territory shall be liable to imprisonment not exceeding three years or a fine, in case of a slanderous insult to imprisonment from three months to five years.
...
Section 104a
Conditions for prosecution
Offences under this chapter shall only be prosecuted if the Federal Republic of Germany maintains diplomatic relations with the other state, reciprocity is guaranteed and was also guaranteed at the time of the offence, a request to prosecute by the foreign government exists, and the Federal Government authorises the prosecution.
For that matter, there seem to be some other rather eyebrow-raising provisions in the code.
Remain must be delighted.
However, did Miliband EVER trail Cameron on the "best PM" ratings, even at the height of the Omnishambles?
Seems to be very key here and since Merkel is head of the federal government it stands to reason she could have refused to authorise it. Looking very bad for her at the moment.
FWIW, I think Osborne would be a crap PM.
Switches of 100 seats in 1 election are rare. DC almost managed it in 2010 and Blair did in 97. But unless Corbyn is suddenly going to morph into T Blair or the SNP suddenly fold their tents it is hard to see anyone other than the Tories as the largest party after the next election, probably by a large enough margin to make another government really difficult to put together.
The fact that Corbyn is crap is really just a bonus.
An utter disgrace.
Now imagine being subject to QMV on home affairs issues, including press freedom, with a group of countries with similar laws and who impose an EU wide law making such satire a crime. Think it might not happen? Why wouldn't it? With greater integration that is the risk.
All that "We are Charlie" was for the birds.
And if this gets done for Erdogan, well, some will be asking, why not for Mohammed?
This is what happens when you don't understand the principles you claim to espouse, when you don't live the principles you claim to espouse, when you don't stand up for the principles you claim to espouse and when you put yourself in a position where you are reliant on the goodwill of a people or a country who don't give a fig for your country, your principles or your values. This is what happens when you lack courage.
http://www.theguardian.com/global/2015/may/17/losing-their-religion-british-ex-muslims-non-believers-hidden-crisis-faith
A former Labour defence secretary has said Jeremy Corbyn is a threat to national security
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/politics/news/68700/jeremy-corbyn-threat-national-security-says-lord-hutton
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-institutions/news/73795/jacob-rees-mogg-attacks-barack-obama-over-ira-thatcher-bomb
That being said: I would bet the investigating judge will find there is no case to be answered. (Which he will decide in about 18 months time, after a full consideration of the evidence.)
Kahn would be dead in the water. But there isn't.
"Whosoever insults a foreign head of state, or, with respect to his position, a member of a foreign government who is in Germany in his official capacity, or a head of a foreign diplomatic mission who is accredited in the Federal territory shall be liable to imprisonment not exceeding three years or a fine, in case of a slanderous insult to imprisonment from three months to five years."
And it is quite clear that calling Erdogan (a foreign head of state) a goat fucker is slanderous, applying the law as it reads means he ends up in in prison for three to five years.
Gift shop presents for Gordon/kids, iPod for Queen, sending back busts, the desk, blaming us for Libya... and on and on.
And the writing is on the wall in this area - this supposedly Conservative government has already opted in to a series of home affairs and justice measures and opened the door to even more judicial interference from the EU.
The pressure will be on for more of the same going forward - the EU has big plans in this area, which are no secret.
1) Brexit
2) Cameron forced out as PM/Tory leader/A Tory leadership election
3) Labour ditching Corbyn
4) The SNP trying to schedule a second indy referendum because of 1)
5) The US Presidential race
6) A brokered Republican convention
*note: wrongly