politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the ha

I think Trump has to be allowed to get the nomination (and fail in the Presidential election) to allow the GOP to have a good chance in 2020.

Indigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Another irony is that Trump's downfall might come from taking a hard line on abortion when Cruz and even Kasich are more extreme on that issue.

He line was somewhat misreported in any case. As I recall it he said should abortion be made illegal there should obviously be a punishment for people that obtained one. For some reason the idea of punishing people for breaking the law is seen as extreme.

That situation applies in N Ireland doesn’t it?

Soll
Gallant Oscar
Aachen
Goonyella

And more rain at Aintree please.

FPT:

Innocent_Abroad said:

You know as much about the inner workings of the Labour Party as I do about the Tories. To-day, those of its members who envisage it as a party of Government form a minority. Mostly, and this is surely true of JC himself, they prefer the purity and serenity of Opposition to the compromises of office.

Philip_Thompson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

I can't imagine. Something to do with your wishing there were no Labour or LD (let alone Green) MPs. perhaps?

I don't wish there were no Labour or LD MPs. I just view getting rid of a whole bunch of Labour MPs we in England haven't elected as a bonus of Scots going independent.

I imagine in an independent England the Labour Party would essentially return to a more moderate New Labour in order to appeal to English swing voters. Be healthy for our democracy.

EDIT: Don't forget every New Labour victory included getting a majority of English seats, albeit on a Tory plurality in 05.

Today that is true. However nothing lasts forever. Eventually Labour will regain a thirst for victory, or at least be sick of losing. Eventually the public are going to get sick of the Tories.

When that happens a Labour party appealing to Middle England will be less damaging to the nation that a party as you described propped by Welsh and Scottish socialists.

RodCrosby said:

A few spots of rain in the air on Merseyside now. Thunderstorms forecast...

Any last Aintree tips?

The 4 I've posted are all mudlarks, I'm on them all for a fiver e/w.

Soll
Gallant Oscar
Aachen
Goonyella

DecrepitJohnL said:

Another irony is that Trump's downfall might come from taking a hard line on abortion when Cruz and even Kasich are more extreme on that issue.

Sure - hardline conservatives rightly fret that he isn't really in their camp. Electing Trump is like electing a random number generator - you really have no idea what he'll do. He doesn't have any idea what he'll do. He'll give it some thought when he gets there.

If he is nominated, I suspect that the people who've said things so harsh about him that they can't plausibly retract them will adopt the Koch brother strategy and make a big thing about their love for the GOP. For the Senate. For the House. For dog-catcher. The President? "I'm not going to comment on that: I'll leave it to the people in their wisdom to decide." Quite possibly they can insulate their candidates from the worst effects that way.

Great scenes at Aintree - superb for my horses' prospects. But still need luck >< !
Wouldn't be backing Thistlecrack at 1-4 here, no idea how he does in soft ground - win at Chelters was on good.

Pat Buchanan's dire warning to the beltway meddlers and schemers;

http://www.livingstonparishnews.com/opinion/editorials/article_ed4e6426-fc41-11e5-871d-8f33d1180783.html

Dr. Foxinsox, hmm. Not sure I do that

Trying to remember to eat more tuna though.

Mr. Pulpstar, have you sacrificed a goat to Nike (the Greek god, not the sportswear manufacturer)?

Has the Druids Nephew fallen yet?

Chocolate counts as plants, right?

SimonStClare said:

Has the Druids Nephew fallen yet?

Hah

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Worth noting sentiment may weigh on those figures. An awful lot of people want to believe Trump will fail.

On health - I ignore the vast majority of such stories. Eat what I like, in moderation.

Steer clear of sugar, salt and cured meats. Lots of veg.

The rest is detail.

After trying everything else and committing just about every dietary sin, that's what I have gradually converged to. For instance, I found some time ago that my cycle time trialling went better with much less salt. I now find much processed and restaurant food somewhat disagreeable, falling far outside your constraints. So as a corollary I wonder whether we shouldn't add that most of one's diet ought to be home cooked/prepared.

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Worth noting sentiment may weigh on those figures. An awful lot of people want to believe Trump will fail.

On health - I ignore the vast majority of such stories. Eat what I like, in moderation.

Steer clear of sugar, salt and cured meats. Lots of veg.

The rest is detail.

I've always had lowish blood pressure (it's what makes me serene on PB...) so I theorise that I can get away with salt, which I've always loved ever since I discovered klipfisk, cod preserved in a thick layer of salt from the days before Scandinavia had fridges. The official recommendation is to soak it for a while to take the edge off, but real men eat it just like that, lightly fried in oil.

Sugar, cured meats, meh.

I know it's an understatement to say the PM has handled this badly. He was right the first time, that this was a private matter and should have left it there for his accusers to provide the evidence.

Is there any journalist doing any serious work on how all these 11million documents were hacked/leaked? This is a criminal offence, is it not? The fact that Edward Snowden has made a reappearance and demanding the PM's resignation is extremely concerning, is it not?
There is an absolutely massive story behind all this and I want are so-called investigate journalists to have the cojones to get behind it. I'm not holding my breath.

We could take a hit from IS at any time, is anyone seriously suggesting we can do without a PM at this time? Perhaps if we do take a hit, Jeremy from Islington can invite them in for a cup of tea, to discuss their problems!

LadyBucket said:

I know it's an understatement to say the PM has handled this badly. He was right the first time, that this was a private matter and should have left it there for his accusers to provide the evidence.

Is there any journalist doing any serious work on how all these 11million documents were hacked/leaked? This is a criminal offence, is it not? The fact that Edward Snowden has made a reappearance and demanding the PM's resignation is extremely concerning, is it not?
There is an absolutely massive story behind all this and I want are so-called investigate journalists to have the cojones to get behind it. I'm not holding my breath.

We could take a hit from IS at any time, is anyone seriously suggesting we can do without a PM at this time? Perhaps if we do take a hit, Jeremy from Islington can invite them in for a cup of tea, to discuss their problems!

Pass the sick bucket.
The heir to Blairmore is the security risk, not Corbyn.

MTimT said:

William_H said:

I really can't see the logic in picking Kasich. Better to pick someone who at least hasn't been conclusively rejected in the primaries, like Ryan, if you're going for someone other than Trump or Cruz. Unless Kasich can do well right at the end of the primaries and create a more favourable narrative, anyway.

Or unless Kasich does better in the Hillary (or Sanders) one on one match ups, which he does. I am not sure there are any polls out there giving us the Ryan on Hillary/Sanders match up.

Hillary beat Ryan 40% to 34% in a Rasmussen poll earlier this month while Sanders led Ryan 41% to 34%. Ryan was the losing VP nominee in 2012 too

LadyBucket said:

I know it's an understatement to say the PM has handled this badly. He was right the first time, that this was a private matter and should have left it there for his accusers to provide the evidence.

Is there any journalist doing any serious work on how all these 11million documents were hacked/leaked? This is a criminal offence, is it not? The fact that Edward Snowden has made a reappearance and demanding the PM's resignation is extremely concerning, is it not?
There is an absolutely massive story behind all this and I want are so-called investigate journalists to have the cojones to get behind it. I'm not holding my breath.

We could take a hit from IS at any time, is anyone seriously suggesting we can do without a PM at this time? Perhaps if we do take a hit, Jeremy from Islington can invite them in for a cup of tea, to discuss their problems!

The trouble with the "private matter" defence is that David Cameron was all over Jimmy Carr when he was in the firing line over tax.

Politically, the original story was nothing -- every voter in the land takes it as read that rich people have fancy accountants for this sort of thing. Attacking Cameron over this is as asinine as attacking him for being a toff. It's priced in: everyone knows; no-one cares.

But Cameron's last explanation should have been his first and CCHQ and even pb Tories should have STFU and let it blow over. Throwing up chaff about Tony Blair and assorted lefties only keeps the story running.

Edit: maybe there are too many broadcasters and not enough old newspaper hands in the press office.

DecrepitJohnL said:

LadyBucket said:

I know it's an understatement to say the PM has handled this badly. He was right the first time, that this was a private matter and should have left it there for his accusers to provide the evidence.

Is there any journalist doing any serious work on how all these 11million documents were hacked/leaked? This is a criminal offence, is it not? The fact that Edward Snowden has made a reappearance and demanding the PM's resignation is extremely concerning, is it not?
There is an absolutely massive story behind all this and I want are so-called investigate journalists to have the cojones to get behind it. I'm not holding my breath.

We could take a hit from IS at any time, is anyone seriously suggesting we can do without a PM at this time? Perhaps if we do take a hit, Jeremy from Islington can invite them in for a cup of tea, to discuss their problems!

The trouble with the "private matter" defence is that David Cameron was all over Jimmy Carr when he was in the firing line over tax.

Politically, the original story was nothing -- every voter in the land takes it as read that rich people have fancy accountants for this sort of thing. Attacking Cameron over this is as asinine as attacking him for being a toff. It's priced in: everyone knows; no-one cares.

But Cameron's last explanation should have been his first and CCHQ and even pb Tories should have STFU and let it blow over. Throwing up chaff about Tony Blair and assorted lefties only keeps the story running.

Edit: maybe there are too many broadcasters and not enough old newspaper hands in the press office.

If he had taken the explanation I suggested from the start, he (or rather the Tory outriders) could have closed down the "what about Jimmy Carr" angle, because Cameron invested in a Unit Trust, which everybody who has a pension will be invested in. Jimmy Carr invested in a scheme whereby you gave it money and it loaned it back to you over the course of a number of years. Hence why HMRC say unit trusts ok, Jimmy Carr type scheme erhh not so ok.

He could have even argued this is why I criticised these "aggressive" avoidance schemes i.e. I invested and paid my taxes on it, these other schemes individuals don't pay full tax.

Instead everything looks shady as hell, when all the financial experts, even Labourite Peston, basically said Cameron's father's fund was about as boring as it got when it comes to this.

Now the question about the Jersey stuff, now that is a different matter. That definitely looks like some nifty Bennite footwork, and I would guess Cameron's mother and siblings have got a good chunk of change of it.

I'm on Silviniaco Conti and Aachen.

This can't be right, Katherine Jenkins ain't doing the national anthem. I thought that was the law, big sports event Jenkers has to do the warbling.

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Worth noting sentiment may weigh on those figures. An awful lot of people want to believe Trump will fail.

On health - I ignore the vast majority of such stories. Eat what I like, in moderation.

Steer clear of sugar, salt and cured meats. Lots of veg.

The rest is detail.

I've always had lowish blood pressure (it's what makes me serene on PB...) so I theorise that I can get away with salt, which I've always loved ever since I discovered klipfisk, cod preserved in a thick layer of salt from the days before Scandinavia had fridges. The official recommendation is to soak it for a while to take the edge off, but real men eat it just like that, lightly fried in oil.

Sugar, cured meats, meh.

Bacalhau is the Portuguese equivalent, the fish was dried and salted on board ship to preserve it for the long run home. I can remember long queues outside the Lisbon fishmongers When the fishing fleet came in, and rightly so because Bacalhau is delicious regardless of whichever of the hundreds of recipes one chooses. My favourite used to be Bacalhau à Gomes de Sá, with a bottle of Vinho Verde served on a sunny terrace - that was a close to heaven as I am likely to get.

Nowadays my Kidneys are creaking and I am very salt intolerant - more than a small amount in a meal and I have a raging thirst all night. This is a great shame because, with one exception, at least only one I have found so far, I can no longer enjoy a curry in a indian restaurant (something that has been a passion for me since I was about 14). Even the posh curry houses (e.g. Veeraswamy and the Taj in Crawley, where one is talking £50 a head, seem to use salt by the tablespoonful), delicious food but not worth the suffering afterwards.

Actually it is surprising, judging by my reaction to the stuff, how much salt gets thrown into restaurant/pub meals, even those that one would think would be relatively salt free.

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Gives them a different day out than complaining about animal cruelty at the Grand National....

HurstLlama said:

Bacalhau is the Portuguese equivalent, the fish was dried and salted on board ship to preserve it for the long run home. I can remember long queues outside the Lisbon fishmongers When the fishing fleet came in, and rightly so because Bacalhau is delicious regardless of whichever of the hundreds of recipes one chooses. My favourite used to be Bacalhau à Gomes de Sá, with a bottle of Vinho Verde served on a sunny terrace - that was a close to heaven as I am likely to get.

Nowadays my Kidneys are creaking and I am very salt intolerant - more than a small amount in a meal and I have a raging thirst all night. This is a great shame because, with one exception, at least only one I have found so far, I can no longer enjoy a curry in a indian restaurant (something that has been a passion for me since I was about 14). Even the posh curry houses (e.g. Veeraswamy and the Taj in Crawley, where one is talking £50 a head, seem to use salt by the tablespoonful), delicious food but not worth the suffering afterwards.

Actually it is surprising, judging by my reaction to the stuff, how much salt gets thrown into restaurant/pub meals, even those that one would think would be relatively salt free.

Mm, sympathies. I've never had the pelasure of visiting Portugal, but will look out for bacalhau if I get the chance.

Klipfisk has become very unfashionable in Denmark as the traditional fish have given way to international generic fish like cod and plaice, yawn. Another favourite when I lived there, again rare now and one I've never seen outside Scandinavia, is hornfish, which is like a miniature swordfish but much tastier, distinguished by green bones visible through the translucent skin. If there was anywhere in London that served it, I'd go there every month.

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

Bacalhau is the Portuguese equivalent, the fish was dried and salted on board ship to preserve it for the long run home. I can remember long queues outside the Lisbon fishmongers When the fishing fleet came in, and rightly so because Bacalhau is delicious regardless of whichever of the hundreds of recipes one chooses. My favourite used to be Bacalhau à Gomes de Sá, with a bottle of Vinho Verde served on a sunny terrace - that was a close to heaven as I am likely to get.

Nowadays my Kidneys are creaking and I am very salt intolerant - more than a small amount in a meal and I have a raging thirst all night. This is a great shame because, with one exception, at least only one I have found so far, I can no longer enjoy a curry in a indian restaurant (something that has been a passion for me since I was about 14). Even the posh curry houses (e.g. Veeraswamy and the Taj in Crawley, where one is talking £50 a head, seem to use salt by the tablespoonful), delicious food but not worth the suffering afterwards.

Actually it is surprising, judging by my reaction to the stuff, how much salt gets thrown into restaurant/pub meals, even those that one would think would be relatively salt free.

Mm, sympathies. I've never had the pelasure of visiting Portugal, but will look out for bacalhau if I get the chance.

Klipfisk has become very unfashionable in Denmark as the traditional fish have given way to international generic fish like cod and plaice, yawn. Another favourite when I lived there, again rare now and one I've never seen outside Scandinavia, is hornfish, which is like a miniature swordfish but much tastier, distinguished by green bones visible through the translucent skin. If there was anywhere in London that served it, I'd go there every month.

Look for garfish and you'll find it around.

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Thou shalt not get caught.
Once you have been caught, you haven't " gotten away with it " and your political career is over. The people will laugh at your every sanctimonious platitude.

@JournoStephen: Explosive stuff in @kezdugdale's tax return. https://t.co/qA9lgTtmEy

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Thou shalt not get caught.
Once you have been caught, you haven't " gotten away with it " and your political career is over. The people will laugh at your every sanctimonious platitude.

For sure he has been shown up as a multi-faced lying , taxing avoiding , lying baw faced cheat.
Like his hero Clegg he will remembered best for being a shifty two faced liar.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Thou shalt not get caught.
Once you have been caught, you haven't " gotten away with it " and your political career is over. The people will laugh at your every sanctimonious platitude.

He may have been ham fisted but he didn't do anything wrong. The fund he invested in is similar to many that pension funds use to the benefit of many millions in the UK - are you going to say these should be closed down. He will continue in office despite your hopes otherwise

MikeK said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Thou shalt not get caught.
Once you have been caught, you haven't " gotten away with it " and your political career is over. The people will laugh at your every sanctimonious platitude.

@Stark_Dawning is stark raving again. It's not the left agitators Cameron has to worry about. It's all those that remember his lying on Pasties in Pastygate a few years ago, and see that under the smooth sweaty veneer, he remains what he always was, a man to whom lying comes as second nature.

What has he lied about

malcolmg said:

richardDodd said:

Moniker Di Canio..So what exactly is Cameron guilty of.

LYING

What did he lie about?

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

Bacalhau is the Portuguese equivalent, the fish was dried and salted on board ship to preserve it for the long run home. I can remember long queues outside the Lisbon fishmongers When the fishing fleet came in, and rightly so because Bacalhau is delicious regardless of whichever of the hundreds of recipes one chooses. My favourite used to be Bacalhau à Gomes de Sá, with a bottle of Vinho Verde served on a sunny terrace - that was a close to heaven as I am likely to get.

Nowadays my Kidneys are creaking and I am very salt intolerant - more than a small amount in a meal and I have a raging thirst all night. This is a great shame because, with one exception, at least only one I have found so far, I can no longer enjoy a curry in a indian restaurant (something that has been a passion for me since I was about 14). Even the posh curry houses (e.g. Veeraswamy and the Taj in Crawley, where one is talking £50 a head, seem to use salt by the tablespoonful), delicious food but not worth the suffering afterwards.

Actually it is surprising, judging by my reaction to the stuff, how much salt gets thrown into restaurant/pub meals, even those that one would think would be relatively salt free.

Mm, sympathies. I've never had the pelasure of visiting Portugal, but will look out for bacalhau if I get the chance.

Klipfisk has become very unfashionable in Denmark as the traditional fish have given way to international generic fish like cod and plaice, yawn. Another favourite when I lived there, again rare now and one I've never seen outside Scandinavia, is hornfish, which is like a miniature swordfish but much tastier, distinguished by green bones visible through the translucent skin. If there was anywhere in London that served it, I'd go there every month.

Nick, You are a Europhile, beyond sixty years of age and you have never been to Portugal. Well I am gob-smacked. If ever here was a nation state that looked to the EU, as it is now, to pull it out of its authoritarian past into the sunlit uplands of libertarian prosperity it was Portugal. And it got royally kicked in the teeth.

MAybe you would have done better to have become an MEP

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

richardDodd said:

Moniker Di Canio..So what exactly is Cameron guilty of.

LYING

What did he lie about?

His money from Panama that he insisted never existed. His pasty and I am sure hundreds of others we don't yet know about. If he was pinochio he would not be able to get through the door

PS: to be fair 30K is small change to him , perhaps he forgot about it

MikeK said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Well, I think it's fair to say that Dave has gotten away with it. The rantings of the usual far-left agitators - Livingstone, Sturgeon, Lily Allen - calling on him to resign/be sent to jail have been completely counter-productive and if anything garnered him some sympathy. Most delicious though has been the reaction of his swivel-eyed opponents in Leave - their frustration and disappointment have been palpable. Next.

Thou shalt not get caught.
Once you have been caught, you haven't " gotten away with it " and your political career is over. The people will laugh at your every sanctimonious platitude.

@Stark_Dawning is stark raving again. It's not the left agitators Cameron has to worry about. It's all those that remember his lying on Pasties in Pastygate a few years ago, and see that under the smooth sweaty veneer, he remains what he always was, a man to whom lying comes as second nature.

Stark Dawning's posts are mostly spoofs, just to let you know

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

malcolmg said:

richardDodd said:

Moniker Di Canio..So what exactly is Cameron guilty of.

LYING

What did he lie about?

His money from Panama that he insisted never existed. His pasty and I am sure hundreds of others we don't yet know about. If he was pinochio he would not be able to get through the door

PS: to be fair 30K is small change to him , perhaps he forgot about it

When did he insist the investment never existed and is pasty tax the best you can do

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

Pulpstar said:

"Then a gap back to Goonyella staying on in fifth !" (Was on at 22s)

So a loss of £7.50 from £40 total stake overall. Not so bad.

Congratulations to all winners.

Rest pulled up/fell

I had 2nd , but did worse than you , got 40% of my stakes back, if you include having to fund my wife's horse.
Did anyone get the winner?

I had an each way bet on The Last Samuri. First year in the last three that have not had the winner. So close......

I had Last Samuri. Highly annoying last few yards.

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

Cyclefree said:

malcolmg said:

Pulpstar said:

"Then a gap back to Goonyella staying on in fifth !" (Was on at 22s)

So a loss of £7.50 from £40 total stake overall. Not so bad.

Congratulations to all winners.

Rest pulled up/fell

I had 2nd , but did worse than you , got 40% of my stakes back, if you include having to fund my wife's horse.
Did anyone get the winner?

I had an each way bet on The Last Samuri. First year in the last three that have not had the winner. So close......

Must have been a great result for the bookies, they will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Well if people will lump on top weight horses at shortish prices in heavy conditions...

My place bet on Last Samurai covered my other bets and I ended slightly up. Exciting race!