politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest

peter_from_putney said:

watford30 said:

Danny565 said:

Yorkcity said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, Boris has been off-form these last few weeks. Or perhaps more accurately, Boris is now being examined as a potential party leader and prime minister, and being found wanting. The skills and attributes that make him effective as a mayoral candidate or - possibly - a cabinet minister are not necessarily ones that would do the same for him as a party leader. Indeed, I very much doubt they would - and I don't think I'm anything like alone in coming to that conclusion.

As for Gove, I'm not entirely sure. He has two serious downsides as a potential leader. Firstly, in a media age, he's just not very likable. He may very well be personable on a one-to-one basis but that cuts little mustard when it's not how you campaign. In any case, I'm not sure that he has been all that likable to MPs, and that matters both in managing the party and in winning the election in the first place. Secondly, he over-manages. It's good for a leader to be in control of the facts and aware of what's going on but Gove as Education Secretary took that too far and produced endless diktats that ran counter to his professed philosophy of different delivery models and improvement through competition.

But then if not Gove, who? Osborne? Boris? Hunt? May? Javid? Cameron staying on?

I'm inclined to think at the moment that Hammond has fewer negatives than anyone else who might be a runner at the moment and as such is in a much stronger position than is assumed, Tory leadership elections being principally about what people are not.

I have always been impressed by Gove, from when he was a journalist at the Times.
He was a big supporter of Blair new labour project, as all the New Conservatives at the top of the party seem to be. He knew they had to change to win.

I think he would make a good PM a man of principle is a good trait.

All this may well be true, but, as I keep saying, he beats Ed Miliband by a country mile in the Weird Stakes. Rightly or wrongly, that will be all there is to it for a big swathe of swing voters.

Here's the alternative.

Screw your eyes until almost closed and he takes on the appearance of his would be Spitting Image caricature!

FrancisUrquhart said:

RodCrosby said:

breaking: one of the Brussels suicide bombers had worked at the European Parliament...

As what, a cleaner?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?

I mean, really.

Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.

http://order-order.com/2015/06/18/ipsos-mori-stewart-lewis-polling-surprisingly-well/

And Liz Kendall got less in the end than a fictional candidate.

Harsh - but hilarious.....

And I voted for Liz.
That was despite a poster on here pretending that he was the chairman of Hertsmere CLP and was going to purge me,

watford30 said:

Danny565 said:

Yorkcity said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, yes, Boris has been off-form these last few weeks. Or perhaps more accurately, Boris is now being examined as a potential party leader and prime minister, and being found wanting. The skills and attributes that make him effective as a mayoral candidate or - possibly - a cabinet minister are not necessarily ones that would do the same for him as a party leader. Indeed, I very much doubt they would - and I don't think I'm anything like alone in coming to that conclusion.

As for Gove, I'm not entirely sure. He has two serious downsides as a potential leader. Firstly, in a media age, he's just not very likable. He may very well be personable on a one-to-one basis but that cuts little mustard when it's not how you campaign. In any case, I'm not sure that he has been all that likable to MPs, and that matters both in managing the party and in winning the election in the first place. Secondly, he over-manages. It's good for a leader to be in control of the facts and aware of what's going on but Gove as Education Secretary took that too far and produced endless diktats that ran counter to his professed philosophy of different delivery models and improvement through competition.

But then if not Gove, who? Osborne? Boris? Hunt? May? Javid? Cameron staying on?

I'm inclined to think at the moment that Hammond has fewer negatives than anyone else who might be a runner at the moment and as such is in a much stronger position than is assumed, Tory leadership elections being principally about what people are not.

I have always been impressed by Gove, from when he was a journalist at the Times.
He was a big supporter of Blair new labour project, as all the New Conservatives at the top of the party seem to be. He knew they had to change to win.

I think he would make a good PM a man of principle is a good trait.

All this may well be true, but, as I keep saying, he beats Ed Miliband by a country mile in the Weird Stakes. Rightly or wrongly, that will be all there is to it for a big swathe of swing voters.

Here's the alternative.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03457/potd-corbyn_3457949b.jpg

Speedy said:

Freggles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?

I mean, really.

Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.

http://order-order.com/2015/06/18/ipsos-mori-stewart-lewis-polling-surprisingly-well/

And Liz Kendall got less in the end than a fictional candidate.

Harsh - but hilarious.....

And I voted for Liz.
That was despite a poster on here pretending that he was the chairman of Hertsmere CLP and was going to purge me,

You registered with Labour just to vote for Liz?

So did I

I have the suspicion that Liz Kendall got almost all her votes from Tories, who registered just to vote for a Tory.

Speedy said:

Freggles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?

I mean, really.

Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.

http://order-order.com/2015/06/18/ipsos-mori-stewart-lewis-polling-surprisingly-well/

And Liz Kendall got less in the end than a fictional candidate.

Harsh - but hilarious.....

And I voted for Liz.
That was despite a poster on here pretending that he was the chairman of Hertsmere CLP and was going to purge me,

You registered with Labour just to vote for Liz?

So did I

I have the suspicion that Liz Kendall got almost all her votes from Tories, who registered just to vote for a Tory.

Casino_Royale said:

Donated another £100 to Vote Leave tonight off the back of the £9.3m government propaganda drive.

Stacking the deck winds me up, no end.

Yorkcity said:

I was driving to work today listening to radio 4 , when an author was discussing his new book,about members of the world war 2 war cabinet that have been overlooked and forgotten by many today.
I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MP_SE said:

YES! Up yours Brussels:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899

This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MP_SE said:

YES! Up yours Brussels:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899

This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy

As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes.
A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer.
A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary.
The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.

MP_SE said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Call it economical with the truth or just plain lying?

The Minister for Europe, David Lidington MP: ‘Let me repeat that we have no intention of legislating to allow the Government to do things such as mailshots, paid advertising or leafleting’ (Hansard, 7 September 2015, col. 89,).

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm150907/debtext/150907-0003.htm

Looks like a lie to me.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MP_SE said:

YES! Up yours Brussels:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899

This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy

As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes.
A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer.
A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary.
The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.

rcs1000 said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MP_SE said:

YES! Up yours Brussels:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899

This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy

As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes.
A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer.
A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary.
The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.

The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.

That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.

MarkSenior said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MP_SE said:

YES! Up yours Brussels:

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899

This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy

As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes.
A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer.
A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary.
The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.

The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.

That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.

Simple, be less corrupt. Ukraine would never qualify for free trade were it not being invaded by Putin. Take Putin out of the equation and look at it in terms of cold hard facts and Ukraine is a corrupt nation with serious security and freedom issues which we should not be supporting.

Unlike China then .