Trump will get 80-95 delegates out of N.Y. That will take him to around 1200 +/-10 , if he doesn't lose Indiana and fails to win California by a convincing margin.
It's fair to say that he will probably come up short of 1237, but not by much. Logically Cruz and Trump should have the same odds for the nomination at this moment, but should the polls point to Cruz leading in any of the other states then Cruz should be the favourite.
On topic, yes, Boris has been off-form these last few weeks. Or perhaps more accurately, Boris is now being examined as a potential party leader and prime minister, and being found wanting. The skills and attributes that make him effective as a mayoral candidate or - possibly - a cabinet minister are not necessarily ones that would do the same for him as a party leader. Indeed, I very much doubt they would - and I don't think I'm anything like alone in coming to that conclusion.
As for Gove, I'm not entirely sure. He has two serious downsides as a potential leader. Firstly, in a media age, he's just not very likable. He may very well be personable on a one-to-one basis but that cuts little mustard when it's not how you campaign. In any case, I'm not sure that he has been all that likable to MPs, and that matters both in managing the party and in winning the election in the first place. Secondly, he over-manages. It's good for a leader to be in control of the facts and aware of what's going on but Gove as Education Secretary took that too far and produced endless diktats that ran counter to his professed philosophy of different delivery models and improvement through competition.
But then if not Gove, who? Osborne? Boris? Hunt? May? Javid? Cameron staying on?
I'm inclined to think at the moment that Hammond has fewer negatives than anyone else who might be a runner at the moment and as such is in a much stronger position than is assumed, Tory leadership elections being principally about what people are not.
I have always been impressed by Gove, from when he was a journalist at the Times. He was a big supporter of Blair new labour project, as all the New Conservatives at the top of the party seem to be. He knew they had to change to win.
I think he would make a good PM a man of principle is a good trait.
All this may well be true, but, as I keep saying, he beats Ed Miliband by a country mile in the Weird Stakes. Rightly or wrongly, that will be all there is to it for a big swathe of swing voters.
Here's the alternative.
Screw your eyes until almost closed and he takes on the appearance of his would be Spitting Image caricature!
He actually looks like the cartoon version of Mr Bean in that.
Maybe Vince Cable hit nearer the knuckle than he knew with his famous gibe.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
On topic, yes, Boris has been off-form these last few weeks. Or perhaps more accurately, Boris is now being examined as a potential party leader and prime minister, and being found wanting. The skills and attributes that make him effective as a mayoral candidate or - possibly - a cabinet minister are not necessarily ones that would do the same for him as a party leader. Indeed, I very much doubt they would - and I don't think I'm anything like alone in coming to that conclusion.
As for Gove, I'm not entirely sure. He has two serious downsides as a potential leader. Firstly, in a media age, he's just not very likable. He may very well be personable on a one-to-one basis but that cuts little mustard when it's not how you campaign. In any case, I'm not sure that he has been all that likable to MPs, and that matters both in managing the party and in winning the election in the first place. Secondly, he over-manages. It's good for a leader to be in control of the facts and aware of what's going on but Gove as Education Secretary took that too far and produced endless diktats that ran counter to his professed philosophy of different delivery models and improvement through competition.
But then if not Gove, who? Osborne? Boris? Hunt? May? Javid? Cameron staying on?
I'm inclined to think at the moment that Hammond has fewer negatives than anyone else who might be a runner at the moment and as such is in a much stronger position than is assumed, Tory leadership elections being principally about what people are not.
Hammond also has the positive of making me more money than any other candidate would be a very great Prime Minister indeed. The obvious choice.
Seriously, Hammond seems to me to have many of the same qualities as May. May, however, is known to be a runner and is attracting opposition, whereas Hammond is somehow lurking out of view, which is what about-to-be leaders of the Conservative Party have often done.
Spot on about Boris and Gove, I think.
Just had a dekko on Betfair Hammond is 70 for next PM David Milliband is 40.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
Laying Johnson and especially Osborne has been particularly profitable and the 28-1 on Gove looks tasty now and a saver on May,like Gove on 8-1, from 10-1, who's still clinging in there in 4th place is necessary.I guess Liam Fox needs to be part of a dutch bet available at 50-1 if the Tories have a complete nervous breakdown.All angles covered.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
Yes, who was nicknamed 'Stalin' for his - ahem - unreasonable behaviour. This did not include of course murdering 40 million people, but it did include throwing a stapler at Alistair Darling.
So even if Brown did not transform from Stalin into Mr Bean, the Labour party have now moved along that line instead.
Team Dave are extraordinarily leaden footed right now, on all fronts.
Almost as if there was a Faustian pact...
"For one night" the Devil offered David Cameron, "for Election Night - I will make all your dreams come true. Farage, Balls, Cable, Scottish Labour, the Traitorous Pig Dog - all will fail. I'll even throw in a working majority for you," a smile playing on the Devil's lips.
"But?" The Prime Minister asked.
"One night of dreams will cost you five years of nightmares."
"Done. Can't be worse than five years of Liberal Democrats as coalition partners! Besides, once we've won the referendum, it will all be George's problem."
The Devil's smile turned into a broad grin...
Brilliant MM ..... post of the day without doubt!
*blushes*
I'm actually in a very good mood - I've just brought a former Dr. Who writer onboard a big sci-fi/fantasy/political intrigue TV series I'm writing.... Can't say any more at the mo, tho!
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
On topic, yes, Boris has been off-form these last few weeks. Or perhaps more accurately, Boris is now being examined as a potential party leader and prime minister, and being found wanting. The skills and attributes that make him effective as a mayoral candidate or - possibly - a cabinet minister are not necessarily ones that would do the same for him as a party leader. Indeed, I very much doubt they would - and I don't think I'm anything like alone in coming to that conclusion.
As for Gove, I'm not entirely sure. He has two serious downsides as a potential leader. Firstly, in a media age, he's just not very likable. He may very well be personable on a one-to-one basis but that cuts little mustard when it's not how you campaign. In any case, I'm not sure that he has been all that likable to MPs, and that matters both in managing the party and in winning the election in the first place. Secondly, he over-manages. It's good for a leader to be in control of the facts and aware of what's going on but Gove as Education Secretary took that too far and produced endless diktats that ran counter to his professed philosophy of different delivery models and improvement through competition.
But then if not Gove, who? Osborne? Boris? Hunt? May? Javid? Cameron staying on?
I'm inclined to think at the moment that Hammond has fewer negatives than anyone else who might be a runner at the moment and as such is in a much stronger position than is assumed, Tory leadership elections being principally about what people are not.
I have always been impressed by Gove, from when he was a journalist at the Times. He was a big supporter of Blair new labour project, as all the New Conservatives at the top of the party seem to be. He knew they had to change to win.
I think he would make a good PM a man of principle is a good trait.
All this may well be true, but, as I keep saying, he beats Ed Miliband by a country mile in the Weird Stakes. Rightly or wrongly, that will be all there is to it for a big swathe of swing voters.
Totally less weird than Gove Gove loses because, brace yourselves and God help me for this vacuity, at least Corbyn looks like he has been on a vegetarian diet for the last 40 years.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
I was driving to work today listening to radio 4 , when an author was discussing his new book,about members of the world war 2 war cabinet that have been overlooked and forgotten by many today. I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?
"The designated ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns can each spend no more than £7 million on the entirety of their campaign activities during the last ten weeks of the campaign (European Union Referendum Act 2015, schedule 1, paragraph 25). The Government is proposing to spend £9 million, more than either designated campaign." http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/36/schedule/1/paragraph/25/enacted
Are we in the last ten weeks? Answer = Almost, tomorrow is 11 weeks before 23rd June.
Call it economical with the truth or just plain lying?
The Minister for Europe, David Lidington MP: ‘Let me repeat that we have no intention of legislating to allow the Government to do things such as mailshots, paid advertising or leafleting’ (Hansard, 7 September 2015, col. 89,).
How can anyone take a survey seriously when 16% of the respondents think that Fox is the answer to this country's problems?
I mean, really.
Dummy candidates in polls usually get some support. Stewart Lewis received 6% in an opinion poll for the Labour leadership despite the fact he didn't exist.
And Liz Kendall got less in the end than a fictional candidate.
Harsh - but hilarious.....
And I voted for Liz. That was despite a poster on here pretending that he was the chairman of Hertsmere CLP and was going to purge me,
You registered with Labour just to vote for Liz?
So did I
I have the suspicion that Liz Kendall got almost all her votes from Tories, who registered just to vote for a Tory.
I was originally planning on voting for Jezza purely to be mischievous. When it became clear that he was gonna win quite easily. I switched to Liz as I think she is quite fit for a politician.
Call it economical with the truth or just plain lying?
The Minister for Europe, David Lidington MP: ‘Let me repeat that we have no intention of legislating to allow the Government to do things such as mailshots, paid advertising or leafleting’ (Hansard, 7 September 2015, col. 89,).
Donated another £100 to Vote Leave tonight off the back of the £9.3m government propaganda drive.
Stacking the deck winds me up, no end.
I have emailed a local activist for LEAVE offering my help. I plan to reactivate a delivery network dormant for a couple of years, for 3,000 homes with just under 6,000 voters with highest % of 65+voters and highest % of wwc in the council area. This action by the Govt is the final straw.
I was driving to work today listening to radio 4 , when an author was discussing his new book,about members of the world war 2 war cabinet that have been overlooked and forgotten by many today. I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?
Roger Hermiston, author of All Behind You, Winston: Churchill's Great Coalition 1940-45, and Sonia Purnell, author of First Lady: The Life and Wars of Clementine Churchill.
Sounds interesting. Years ago I did a lot of work on Sir John Anderson, who would surely be one of them. One of two career civil servants to subsequently become a Cabinet Minister (I forget who the other was).
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
So the anti-EU brigade object to the EU-Ukraine treaty because it opens up Ukraine to Free Trade with the EU? Like many other countries that the EU has deals with?
Apart from pushing back Ukraine into conflict with Putins Russia what good does it achieve?
Kippers do seem surprisingly good friends with Putin considering they profess to be patriots.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
The Dutch government will ignore it. It is non-binding.
They say that they will respect the result. Which would mean putting a repeal bill through the Dutch Parliament. It may not pass, but if it does then I am not sure what the effect is.
Call it economical with the truth or just plain lying?
The Minister for Europe, David Lidington MP: ‘Let me repeat that we have no intention of legislating to allow the Government to do things such as mailshots, paid advertising or leafleting’ (Hansard, 7 September 2015, col. 89,).
There is a You Tube vid of Owen Jones interviewing Dan Hannan when precisely this point gets raised by Owen Jones. Dan the Man quotes Tony Benn when explaining why it is such a poor idea to give sovereignty away because you agree temporarily with someone. "It is better to have a bad parliament than a good King"
Theodore Dalrymple points out in this article that although Brexit might be a good idea it won't solve the fundamental problems of British society, many of which are home-grown, such as welfare dependancy for instance.
"But I think it is important to understand that the problems Britain now faces lie much deeper than its membership in the European Union, and have little to do with it. In or out, therefore, the challenges will remain the same. There are no EU regulations preventing us from educating our children properly, for example, yet we do not do so and have been failing to do so for years. It is not the European Union’s fault if we have to import labor so that even elementary jobs are done properly. It is not the EU’s fault that we have the highest crime rate in Europe. It is not the European Union’s fault that our infrastructure is the worst in Western Europe, or that our streets are the dirtiest and our youth the most drunken in Europe."
The problem with Dalrymple (and Hitchens) is that every article is just a wail of despair about how awful Britain and the British are. I don't recognise the country they describe.
Although he is surely right that too many people use the EU as an excuse for not dealing with other serious issues we have.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.
That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
The Dutch government will ignore it. It is non-binding.
They say that they will respect the result. Which would mean putting a repeal bill through the Dutch Parliament. It may not pass, but if it does then I am not sure what the effect is.
Perhaps they will respect it but still ignore it with all due respect.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.
That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.
Simple, be less corrupt. Ukraine would never qualify for free trade were it not being invaded by Putin. Take Putin out of the equation and look at it in terms of cold hard facts and Ukraine is a corrupt nation with serious security and freedom issues which we should not be supporting.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.
That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.
Simple, be less corrupt. Ukraine would never qualify for free trade were it not being invaded by Putin. Take Putin out of the equation and look at it in terms of cold hard facts and Ukraine is a corrupt nation with serious security and freedom issues which we should not be supporting.
This should be fun. No doubt the EU will ignore it and strike another blow to democracy
As they do with every vote that goes against the grain of their wishes. A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer. A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary. The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
The Dutch government has said it will respect the result.
That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.
Simple, be less corrupt. Ukraine would never qualify for free trade were it not being invaded by Putin. Take Putin out of the equation and look at it in terms of cold hard facts and Ukraine is a corrupt nation with serious security and freedom issues which we should not be supporting.
Unlike China then .
I'm not in favour of free trade with them either and I've posted many times about my huge scepticism over their investments into British infrastructure.
I was driving to work today listening to radio 4 , when an author was discussing his new book,about members of the world war 2 war cabinet that have been overlooked and forgotten by many today. I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?
Roger Hermiston, author of All Behind You, Winston: Churchill's Great Coalition 1940-45, and Sonia Purnell, author of First Lady: The Life and Wars of Clementine Churchill.
Sounds interesting. Years ago I did a lot of work on Sir John Anderson, who would surely be one of them. One of two career civil servants to subsequently become a Cabinet Minister (I forget who the other was).
Comments
That will take him to around 1200 +/-10 , if he doesn't lose Indiana and fails to win California by a convincing margin.
It's fair to say that he will probably come up short of 1237, but not by much.
Logically Cruz and Trump should have the same odds for the nomination at this moment, but should the polls point to Cruz leading in any of the other states then Cruz should be the favourite.
Maybe Vince Cable hit nearer the knuckle than he knew with his famous gibe.
Hammond is 70 for next PM
David Milliband is 40.
That was despite a poster on here pretending that he was the chairman of Hertsmere CLP and was going to purge me,
We need a president who doesn’t just rail against trade. We need a president who knows how to compete against the rest of the world and win.
WIN ! Hasn't Trump copyrighted that one ?
So even if Brown did not transform from Stalin into Mr Bean, the Labour party have now moved along that line instead.
I'm actually in a very good mood - I've just brought a former Dr. Who writer onboard a big sci-fi/fantasy/political intrigue TV series I'm writing.... Can't say any more at the mo, tho!
http://app.nos.nl/datavisualisatie/referendum-2016/
Exit Polls say For 36%, Against 64%, with a 29% Turnout, under 30% and it's void.
Stacking the deck winds me up, no end.
Gove loses because, brace yourselves and God help me for this vacuity, at least Corbyn looks like he has been on a vegetarian diet for the last 40 years.
5 years before that I joined so that I could vote for Diane Abbot.
It's all a good bit of fun and costs less than the price of a pint.
An examination of my PB record will show I'm a red liberal lefty. But I quite like winning elections and you don't do that from the Left
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/717797350345936899
I can not seem to find it , is anyone aware of the book ?
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/36/schedule/1/paragraph/25/enacted
Are we in the last ten weeks? Answer = Almost, tomorrow is 11 weeks before 23rd June.
The Minister for Europe, David Lidington MP: ‘Let me repeat that we have no intention of legislating to allow the Government to do things such as mailshots, paid advertising or leafleting’ (Hansard, 7 September 2015, col. 89,).
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm150907/debtext/150907-0003.htm
Psephologists will be "Errm demographics..."
When it became clear that he was gonna win quite easily.
I switched to Liz as I think she is quite fit for a politician.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b075qflr
Sounds interesting. Years ago I did a lot of work on Sir John Anderson, who would surely be one of them. One of two career civil servants to subsequently become a Cabinet Minister (I forget who the other was).
A small unimportant country has to vote again to get the 'correct' answer.
A bigger or more important question requires the question to be changed so that no referendum is necessary.
The European Constitution became a 'tidying up exercise' once the French and Dutch voted it down.
Apart from pushing back Ukraine into conflict with Putins Russia what good does it achieve?
Kippers do seem surprisingly good friends with Putin considering they profess to be patriots.
That being said, hard not to feel for the Ukrainians, who are being denied a free trade deal with the EU.