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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove pushes Boris out off the top slot in ConHome’s latest next CON leader survey

The big political betting story this lunch time is that Boris Johnson has been pushed out of the top slot in the Conservativehome survey of next.com leader preferences by Michael Gove.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Go Gove
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First .... again!
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    To me Gove is very impressive.

    Probably should rule him out though as i thought Blair was awful, Hague excellent and even saw redeeming features in IDS...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    The bigger story is Patel on the same score as Osborne.... So much for those reluctant Remainer MPs who walked away from their constituency views for Leave in favour of a job IOU from the Chancellor. Arf!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    If the world was a rational place where people were rewarded purely on talent, knowledge, achievement, it would be Gove + Hammond double act.

    However they are about as popular with the public these days as holidays to Sharm el-Sheikh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,364
    Odd how the Guardian mentions McBride's tweets on its liveblog, but describes him as:

    "Damian McBride, Gordon Brown’s former communications chief who is now back in the Labour fold working for Emily Thornberry, has been tweeting about the offshore fund controversy."

    Which is a rather interesting and telling plastering over of history, especially when the tweets are about Cameron and his family.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Apparently my attack on Boris and brutal too.

    I was asked if Dave and George told me to write it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,998
    Leave 71%, Remain 29% among Con Home readers?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    JosiasJessop said:

    Odd how the Guardian mentions McBride's tweets on its liveblog, but describes him as:

    "Damian McBride, Gordon Brown’s former communications chief who is now back in the Labour fold working for Emily Thornberry, has been tweeting about the offshore fund controversy."

    Which is a rather interesting and telling plastering over of history, especially when the tweets are about Cameron and his family.

    I wonder what the reaction would be if the Tories rehired Coulson? I somehow doubt just a quiet oh look a tweet from a spin doctor.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    Honestly I've yet to meet any member who wants to vote for Boris as leader. Most want to keep Dave around for as long as possible, failing that there is a dearth of talent at the top of the party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,198
    Boris could end up the new Heseltine, popular with the public but not forgiven by the party for knifing his leader. If it is Leave Gove has a strong chance if becoming PM, if it is Remain he could end up the Leave candidate against May or Osborne in the final two
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    Only a mistake because he's shit.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    MarqueeMark said:

    The bigger story is Patel on the same score as Osborne.... So much for those reluctant Remainer MPs who walked away from their constituency views for Leave in favour of a job IOU from the Chancellor. Arf!

    If you view Osborne as about to be yesterday's man, if follows that his IOUs just became worthless. The power of Osborne's offer was the expectation that he would be the next PM with all the patronage that implies.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq7f9G-Em0g
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited April 2016
    This Panama release pretty much crowded out Corbo's election launch and the Docs' strike.

    Another Dead Cat?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    That is a brilliant picture of Liam Fox.

    Where's Michael Fallon?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apparently my attack on Boris and brutal too.

    I was asked if Dave and George told me to write it.

    ??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited April 2016
    JonCisBack said:


    Probably should rule him out though as i thought Blair was awful, Hague excellent and even saw redeeming features in IDS...

    So you see people at the time as the public will judge them 10 years hence ?

    Gove will have a decent legacy in that case :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apparently my attack on Boris and brutal too.

    I was asked if Dave and George told me to write it.

    ??
    I was asked if this piece I wrote a few weeks ago was because Dave and George told me to write it

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/27/boris-johnson-is-having-a-deeply-unimpressive-referendum-campaign-so-far/

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited April 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, too inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Regarding Boris, I think the Treasury Committee performance and his general low profile and lack of engagement in remain, which rather support the view that he is a) lazy and b) not desperately committed to the cause are what is doing for him. I don't think Parris' condescension and sneering hatchet-jobs are taken terribly seriously, especially by readers of ConHome. How many remember his views on Clacton and the working class, nasty little man.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4198515.ece
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    Sky's coverage of the last two strikes has been cursory - the dozen placard waving pickets need a really close shot to make them look less lonely.

    I've honestly no idea what point they're proving now, the world hasn't ended without them, 25k patients have had treatments put back months and for what?

    I honestly hadn't noticed Corbyn's campaign launch. I saw a couple of tweets about their PEB but that's it.
    Mortimer said:

    This Panama release pretty much crowded out Corbo's election launch and the Docs' strike.

    Another Dead Cat?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,837
    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,837
    tlg86 said:

    Leave 71%, Remain 29% among Con Home readers?

    Surprised there are any Remain-ers among ConHome readers!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Casino (FPT): "I donate to the National Trust, Tories, Veterans charities, local community appeals, heritage railways (don't tell Sunil) and political campaigns."

    Your pattern of giving is similar to my own, where I focus on local smaller charities, including hospices.
    I don't donate to political parties (I don't believe they deserve my money), nor any longer to the likes of the RSPCA, since they showed their left wing political colours.
    In fact I never now donate to large, national charities run entirely on business lines, complete with a main board directors on fancy expense accounts and six figure plus salaries ..... when I give to charity I like to think that it's going to charity, not to further enrich those who already far out-earn me.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2016
    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company to have a pint with and not-at-all-weird.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2016
    Mortimer said:

    This Panama release pretty much crowded out Corbo's election launch and the Docs' strike.

    Another Dead Cat?

    The Washington based International Consortium of Investigative Journalists coordinated the release of the Panama Papers with more than a hundred media outlets from around the world, just to knock Corbo’s election launch’ off the front of the UK’s front pages?


    err, maybe. :lol:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

    This is a respectable site.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Man flu...
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

    You really want to ask that kind of question whilst I'm here?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Gove is hard to work out. At education he pretty much went out of his way to insult experts and reject many evidence-based approaches which could be derided as "progressive", "liberal", "trendy" etc. But as you say, at justice he's done almost exactly the opposite, in many cases pushing policies that are the opposite of those that would be instinctively appealing to those who like his approach to education. This incarnation of Gove is probably my favourite high profile Tory after Dominic Grieve.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    I have to presume the BBC / Guardian have more to come on the Panama stuff, otherwise thats a pretty poor return on a years work.

    We knew about Cameron's family (I guess a lot more people do now because of this) but this exact story was in the Guardian in 2012, a few Tory donors (who would have guessed and JCB guy is saying they are wrong about some key facts) and so far in terms of British elite that is it.

    And the rest, well blow me down Putin, African dictators and FIFA...

    There has to be more, surely?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited April 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Which only goes to show he doesn't listen. Many of his reforms were actually very popular in principle, even with teachers. They were just being rushed through without proper planning and asking us to make up the difference by way of a vastly increased workload. That's why at the end of last term three of my fellow heads of subject had nervous breakdowns.

    The unions were against them, but then they would have been against the lighting of the first fire. Incidentally if the ATL does merge with the NUT I shall resign from it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    I think you see that from a lefty activist POV.

    He is very, very MC dinner party friendly. The obvious compromise post-Cameron PM amongst everyone I know.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I wonder how many people have suffered real physical pain and extreme stress today because of the medical practitioners strike..cant bring myself to refer to them as Doctors...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I like Gove, but he's so incredibly swottish. He doesn't have the charisma for broad appeal. I'd take him for a DPM role.
    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Which only goes to show he doesn't listen. Many of his reforms were actually very popular in principle, even with teachers. They were just being rushed through without proper planning and asking us to make up the difference by way of a vastly increased workload. That's why at the end of last term three of my fellow heads of subject had nervous breakdowns.

    The unions were against them, but then they would have been against the lighting of the first fire. Incidentally if the ATL does merge with the NUT I shall resign from it.
    My point is that it seems like he is listening with the lawyers. I think with his education reforms, he saw as he had to get it done early in the coalition otherwise it wouldn't happen at all. I don't see that "he doesn't ever listen" as a set personality trait. In terms of arrogance, yes, most politicians are.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

    Unfortunately now you've flaunted your generosity here on PB you've already had your reward. Matthew 6:2 and all that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    edited April 2016
    That said Gove has impressed Frances Crook of The Howard League.

    That is no mean feat.

    Would make Gove easily to sell as a liberal Tory in the mould of Cameron.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    I think you see that from a lefty activist POV.

    He is very, very MC dinner party friendly. The obvious compromise post-Cameron PM amongst everyone I know.
    Not really. Much as the lefty activist in me hates Cameron and Boris in policy terms, they are undoubtedly good at convincing people they are relatively "normal" and nice enough guys to have a pint with (as was Major back in the day).

    Gove is not. And no party leader has won a General Election in the past 25 years, either in the UK or the US, without passing the "would you have a pint with them" test.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    If Gove takes over late this year or early next year that might not matter. If he has three years to bed into the job, and be seen to do stuff and make things happen. If he shows a bit more leg on his principles, and takes a pragmatic and no-nonsense approach in government he will be a known quantity with proven competence by the election. The problem Wallace had was he was weird, and an unknown quantity, and suspected of being a bit of a opportunist bullshitter.

    A reputation for competence and common sense would easily trump a bit of uncoolness, especially verses a terrorist sympathising magic money tree marxist ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac

    Trump 39 .. Cruz 30 .. Kasich 24
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 44

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
    Clinton 43 .. Cruz 43
    Clinton 35 .. Kasich 51

    Sanders 48 .. Trump 40
    Sanders 46 .. Cruz 38
    Sanders 40 .. Kasich 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Polruan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Gove is hard to work out. At education he pretty much went out of his way to insult experts and reject many evidence-based approaches which could be derided as "progressive", "liberal", "trendy" etc. But as you say, at justice he's done almost exactly the opposite, in many cases pushing policies that are the opposite of those that would be instinctively appealing to those who like his approach to education. This incarnation of Gove is probably my favourite high profile Tory after Dominic Grieve.
    Insulting the self-appointed 'experts' in education looks to me exactly the right thing to do. They are the same people who are responsible for everything that has gone wrong in the sector.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    richardDodd said:

    I wonder how many people have suffered real physical pain and extreme stress today because of the medical practitioners strike..cant bring myself to refer to them as Doctors...

    MC people don't do strikes well.

    Insufficiently vociferous on the picket line, too smiley-Jemima in the photos, not really ever able to follow through on the threats of leaving or moving abroad.

    My fb feed today is full of foolish mates who are striking despite receiving subsidised training and being in a great job with tremendous prospects. They're all smiling. Fools.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I have to presume the BBC / Guardian have more to come on the Panama stuff, otherwise thats a pretty poor return on a years work.

    We knew about Cameron's family (I guess a lot more people do now because of this) but this exact story was in the Guardian in 2012, a few Tory donors (who would have guessed and JCB guy is saying they are wrong about some key facts) and so far in terms of British elite that is it.

    And the rest, well blow me down Putin, African dictators and FIFA...

    There has to be more, surely?

    Given there is about 2.6 terabytes of info! surely there will be.

    Nothing to hide, nothing to fear :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited April 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Which only goes to show he doesn't listen. Many of his reforms were actually very popular in principle, even with teachers. They were just being rushed through without proper planning and asking us to make up the difference by way of a vastly increased workload. That's why at the end of last term three of my fellow heads of subject had nervous breakdowns.

    The unions were against them, but then they would have been against the lighting of the first fire. Incidentally if the ATL does merge with the NUT I shall resign from it.
    My point is that it seems like he is listening with the lawyers. I think with his education reforms, he saw as he had to get it done early in the coalition otherwise it wouldn't happen at all. I don't see that "he doesn't ever listen" as a set personality trait. In terms of arrogance, yes, most politicians are.
    If I were feeling cynical I would say that's because he sees lawyers as rich and successful people to suck up to, and teachers as miserable parasites feeding on the state to be attacked.

    Both are of course gross oversimplification shut I think rather like Reagan he has a very much 'good guys/bad guys' view of the world and can't deal with nuances.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Indigo said:

    If Gove takes over late this year or early next year that might not matter. If he has three years to bed into the job, and be seen to do stuff and make things happen. If he shows a bit more leg on his principles, and takes a pragmatic and no-nonsense approach in government he will be a known quantity with proven competence by the election. The problem Wallace had was he was weird, and an unknown quantity, and suspected of being a bit of a opportunist bullshitter.

    A reputation for competence and common sense would easily trump a bit of uncoolness, especially verses a terrorist sympathising magic money tree marxist ;)

    That's a very good point.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited April 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    I think you see that from a lefty activist POV.

    He is very, very MC dinner party friendly. The obvious compromise post-Cameron PM amongst everyone I know.
    Not really. Much as the lefty activist in me hates Cameron and Boris in policy terms, they are undoubtedly good at convincing people they are relatively "normal" and nice enough guys to have a pint with (as was Major back in the day).

    Gove is not. And no party leader has won a General Election in the past 25 years, either in the UK or the US, without passing the "would you have a pint with them" test.
    Perhaps - but I'd rather have had a pint with Kinnock than Major. But would still voted for Major....
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Gove reminds me of Nicholas Parsons - very quick and funny, but not a natural pub man. That Gove is a superb dinner MC doesn't surprise me at all.
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    I think you see that from a lefty activist POV.

    He is very, very MC dinner party friendly. The obvious compromise post-Cameron PM amongst everyone I know.
    Not really. Much as the lefty activist in me hates Cameron and Boris in policy terms, they are undoubtedly good at convincing people they are relatively "normal" and nice enough guys to have a pint with (as was Major back in the day).

    Gove is not. And no party leader has won a General Election in the past 25 years, either in the UK or the US, without passing the "would you have a pint with them" test.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    runnymede said:

    Polruan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Gove is hard to work out. At education he pretty much went out of his way to insult experts and reject many evidence-based approaches which could be derided as "progressive", "liberal", "trendy" etc. But as you say, at justice he's done almost exactly the opposite, in many cases pushing policies that are the opposite of those that would be instinctively appealing to those who like his approach to education. This incarnation of Gove is probably my favourite high profile Tory after Dominic Grieve.
    Insulting the self-appointed 'experts' in education looks to me exactly the right thing to do. They are the same people who are responsible for everything that has gone wrong in the sector.
    Yeah... that kind of comment.

    The point is that if you replace "education" with "criminal justice" or "criminology" then most people who would make your statement would be equally happy with it. The point is that Gove was happy to deride (no doubt left-wing, commie, trendy, safe-space-loving) academics and expert practitioners in education, but he's listened to their equivalents in criminal justice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    I'm just glad Chris Grayling isn't on that list.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I have to presume the BBC / Guardian have more to come on the Panama stuff, otherwise thats a pretty poor return on a years work.

    We knew about Cameron's family (I guess a lot more people do now because of this) but this exact story was in the Guardian in 2012, a few Tory donors (who would have guessed and JCB guy is saying they are wrong about some key facts) and so far in terms of British elite that is it.

    And the rest, well blow me down Putin, African dictators and FIFA...

    There has to be more, surely?

    Given there is about 2.6 terabytes of info! surely there will be.

    Nothing to hide, nothing to fear :D
    You would think they would have had more of a bang to Panorama...instead we got Brinks Mat home (police already knew about it), bloke selling one property in London and another asking for his £85k from an overseas fund...and stuff about Putin that we already knew from a previous Panorama a few months ago (from info from other sources).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac

    Trump 39 .. Cruz 30 .. Kasich 24
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 44

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
    Clinton 43 .. Cruz 43
    Clinton 35 .. Kasich 51

    Sanders 48 .. Trump 40
    Sanders 46 .. Cruz 38
    Sanders 40 .. Kasich 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf

    You would think both sides wanted to lose the presidential election.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    ...
    ...
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Which only goes to show he doesn't listen. Many of his reforms were actually very popular in principle, even with teachers. They were just being rushed through without proper planning and asking us to make up the difference by way of a vastly increased workload. That's why at the end of last term three of my fellow heads of subject had nervous breakdowns.

    The unions were against them, but then they would have been against the lighting of the first fire. Incidentally if the ATL does merge with the NUT I shall resign from it.
    My point is that it seems like he is listening with the lawyers. I think with his education reforms, he saw as he had to get it done early in the coalition otherwise it wouldn't happen at all. I don't see that "he doesn't ever listen" as a set personality trait. In terms of arrogance, yes, most politicians are.
    If I were feeling cynical I would say that's because he sees lawyers as rich and successful people to suck up to, and teachers as miserable parasites feeding on the state to be attacked.

    Both are of course gross oversimplification shut I think rather like Reagan he has a very much 'good guys/bad guys' view of the world and can't deal with nuances.
    Given his efforts to understand prisoners, I'd say that your last comment is pretty much tosh.

    Stop thinking about the producers - start thinking about the consumers.

    More parents like Gove (because he cares about education) than teachers dislike him.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Indigo said:

    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    If Gove takes over late this year or early next year that might not matter. If he has three years to bed into the job, and be seen to do stuff and make things happen. If he shows a bit more leg on his principles, and takes a pragmatic and no-nonsense approach in government he will be a known quantity with proven competence by the election. The problem Wallace had was he was weird, and an unknown quantity, and suspected of being a bit of a opportunist bullshitter.

    A reputation for competence and common sense would easily trump a bit of uncoolness, especially verses a terrorist sympathising magic money tree marxist ;)
    Then what about Gordon Brown?? People still overwhelmingly saw him as competent in 2010 (the perception that Labour had "wrecked the economy" only came AFTER that election with the "no money left" letter) -- I canvassed many doorsteps in that election, and tons of people said they thought he was better than Cameron at handling the economy, but they still wouldn't vote Labour because they didn't like Brown as a person.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Plato_Says said:

    Gove reminds me of Nicholas Parsons - very quick and funny, but not a natural pub man. That Gove is a superb dinner MC doesn't surprise me at all.

    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    I really can't believe Labour would be this lucky.

    The main problem with Gove is not the teaching unions' vitriol towards him, but the fact that, frankly, the man makes Ed Miliband look cool, socially competent, great company at the pub and not-at-all-weird.

    I think you see that from a lefty activist POV.

    He is very, very MC dinner party friendly. The obvious compromise post-Cameron PM amongst everyone I know.
    Not really. Much as the lefty activist in me hates Cameron and Boris in policy terms, they are undoubtedly good at convincing people they are relatively "normal" and nice enough guys to have a pint with (as was Major back in the day).

    Gove is not. And no party leader has won a General Election in the past 25 years, either in the UK or the US, without passing the "would you have a pint with them" test.
    Remember Gove used to be very popular with your liberal lefty dinner party set, and used to do the old artsy farty Newsnight Review. Bloke down the pub he aint though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

    Oh my, that's almost like a blank cheque.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I like Gove but he himself knows he's not an election winner.

    But he could be comprise candidate/stop Boris/Stop X candidate.

    Liked by all wings of the party too.

    Much underestimated.

    No-one would have thought of Major as an election winner in 1988....
    I'm Gove's biggest fan but look at his ratings, they are on a par with Corbyn.
    Even I think more highly of Gove than of Corbyn. But he would be a disastrous PM. He is too arrogant to take advice, to inflexible to delegate properly and too single-minded to think of how everything fits together strategically*.

    The PM in recent years he most closely resembles in terms of temperament if not personality is Gordon Brown. That's not a happy parallel.

    *A clumsy sentence, I know. I was trying to avoid that horrible managerial bollocks phrase 'think holistically'.
    Not sure that is entirely true....he was at education as he was in his mind fighting the blob to pass reforms that he had planned for a number of years, but now dealing with the lawyers, they seem more impressed by his listening more flexible approach. He has changed a number of government positions based upon feedback.
    Which only goes to show he doesn't listen. Many of his reforms were actually very popular in principle, even with teachers. They were just being rushed through without proper planning and asking us to make up the difference by way of a vastly increased workload. That's why at the end of last term three of my fellow heads of subject had nervous breakdowns.

    The unions were against them, but then they would have been against the lighting of the first fire. Incidentally if the ATL does merge with the NUT I shall resign from it.
    My point is that it seems like he is listening with the lawyers. I think with his education reforms, he saw as he had to get it done early in the coalition otherwise it wouldn't happen at all. I don't see that "he doesn't ever listen" as a set personality trait. In terms of arrogance, yes, most politicians are.
    If I were feeling cynical I would say that's because he sees lawyers as rich and successful people to suck up to, and teachers as miserable parasites feeding on the state to be attacked.

    Both are of course gross oversimplification shut I think rather like Reagan he has a very much 'good guys/bad guys' view of the world and can't deal with nuances.
    Wrong. Watch the video here

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9076940
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    rcs1000..Divorce..entirely on your terms..
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That said Gove has impressed Frances Cook of The Howard League.

    That is no mean feat.

    Would make Gove easily to sell as a liberal Tory in the mould of Cameron.

    I have heard it said that Gove sees eye to eye with Cameron and especially Osborne on many things, but Gove does them because he thinks it's right where as Osborne does stuff because it thinks it will further this career or the party's electoral prospects, he also sneers rather less than Osborne ;)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,378
    Mortimer said:

    richardDodd said:

    I wonder how many people have suffered real physical pain and extreme stress today because of the medical practitioners strike..cant bring myself to refer to them as Doctors...

    MC people don't do strikes well.

    Insufficiently vociferous on the picket line, too smiley-Jemima in the photos, not really ever able to follow through on the threats of leaving or moving abroad.

    My fb feed today is full of foolish mates who are striking despite receiving subsidised training and being in a great job with tremendous prospects. They're all smiling. Fools.
    Yup, only the far left are good at strikes. They can smash up shops and throw bricks at the police without worrying about ruining their careers because the Guardian or BBC will hire them as a features writer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Paddy Power never shy to court publicity....Cameron 20/1 to resign over Panama Papers
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac

    Trump 39 .. Cruz 30 .. Kasich 24
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 44

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
    Clinton 43 .. Cruz 43
    Clinton 35 .. Kasich 51

    Sanders 48 .. Trump 40
    Sanders 46 .. Cruz 38
    Sanders 40 .. Kasich 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf

    On these numbers Kasich looks very much like the man the GOP should be going for - shame he isn't going to make it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paddy Power never shy to court publicity....Cameron 20/1 to resign over Panama Papers

    Have you seen their other advert? There's clickbait and then there's this.

    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/717665085938921472
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paddy Power never shy to court publicity....Cameron 20/1 to resign over Panama Papers

    Have you seen their other advert? There's clickbait and then there's this.

    https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/717665085938921472
    Can you imagine going for an advertising job after working for Paddy Power....so can you show us a portfolio of your previous work....

    Yes I don't think (insert massive multinational corporation) will fit your creative talents.

    [notes on paper....oh shit if we give this guy a job, we are definitely going to be in the s##t for some advert that doesn't embrace a multicultural multi-faith modern world our brand tries to portray]
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I have to presume the BBC / Guardian have more to come on the Panama stuff, otherwise thats a pretty poor return on a years work.

    We knew about Cameron's family (I guess a lot more people do now because of this) but this exact story was in the Guardian in 2012, a few Tory donors (who would have guessed and JCB guy is saying they are wrong about some key facts) and so far in terms of British elite that is it.

    And the rest, well blow me down Putin, African dictators and FIFA...

    There has to be more, surely?

    Given there is about 2.6 terabytes of info! surely there will be.

    Nothing to hide, nothing to fear :D
    I think that might turn out to be less impressive than it sounds. That won't be 2.6 terabytes of tightly codes names and accounts. Its going to be more like a backup of the office server. Loads of slightly different versions of the same 200 page contract as a Word document, lots of large documents for reference that don't name anyone specifically, lots of contextually interesting but legally worthless background correspondence, and probably a fair amount of complete irrelevant crap like the tea roster and the latest powerpoints for various meetings. I wouldn't be surprised if the signal-to-noise ratio was quite high.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited April 2016
    Mortimer said:



    Given his efforts to understand prisoners, I'd say that your last comment is pretty much tosh.

    Stop thinking about the producers - start thinking about the consumers.

    More parents like Gove (because he cares about education) than teachers dislike him.

    Mortimer, may I gently suggest I know more of both groups than you do. I assure you I meet many parents who dislike Gove and I also meet many teachers, although a diminishing proportion, who dislike him.

    As for thinking about 'producers' rather than 'consumers' I assure you that I spend all my time in teaching thinking about what is best for the children in my care. So do almost all teachers of my acquaintance. The others don't last long. And of course being much closer to them than Gove (and I might add, rather more intelligent than he is) has it occurred to you that when I criticise the government's policy or more often, its implementation, it might be because I am right and he is wrong?

    As for his interest in the welfare of prisoners, a man who worked at News International and sat in cabinet with Huhne and Laws no doubt feels a certain comfort in dealing with them :wink:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/717699200578887681
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    peter_from_putney said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac

    Trump 39 .. Cruz 30 .. Kasich 24
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 44

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
    Clinton 43 .. Cruz 43
    Clinton 35 .. Kasich 51

    Sanders 48 .. Trump 40
    Sanders 46 .. Cruz 38
    Sanders 40 .. Kasich 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf

    On these numbers Kasich looks very much like the man the GOP should be going for - shame he isn't going to make it!
    Or the man Trump should be going for as Veep....?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:



    Given his efforts to understand prisoners, I'd say that your last comment is pretty much tosh.

    Stop thinking about the producers - start thinking about the consumers.

    More parents like Gove (because he cares about education) than teachers dislike him.

    Mortimer, may I gently suggest I know more of both groups than you do. I assure you I meet many parents who dislike Gove and I also meet many teachers, although a diminishing proportion, who dislike him.

    As for thinking about 'producers' rather than 'consumers' I assure you that I spend all my time in teaching thinking about what is best for the children in my care. So do almost all teachers of my acquaintance. The others don't last long. And of course being much closer to them than Gove (and I might add, rather more intelligent than he is) has it occurred to you that when I criticise the government's policy or more often, its implementation, it might be because I am right and he is wrong?

    As for his interest in the welfare of prisoners, a man who worked at News International and sat in cabinet with Huhne and Laws no doubt feels a certain comfort in dealing with them :wink:
    I see from the final comment that you're taking the Alastair Meeks course on presenting straw men on pb! :smile:

    Liberal reformers are often disliked by those who are impacted by the reforms. I apologise if you're one of the great exceptions - but a family member has worked in the management of several schools; the stories I hear of incompetence and lack of motivation amongst the teaching profession boggle the mind of anyone who works in other areas.

    I see Gove as a reforming professionaliser - this can only be good for the consumers; not only children but society at large who benefit from a better education youth.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Wrong. Watch the video here

    http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9076940

    OK, my words could have been clearer. I meant 'friends' and 'enemies.' Teachers are 'enemies', and therefore he hates them, lawyers are 'friends' therefore he likes them.

    The sad irony is that by treating teachers as enemies he made us enemies (to quote Sayers, 'treat a man like dirt and he'll act dirty'). That didn't have to happen (he followed Ed Talksaloda 'I don't care about education I'm marking time until I get to the Treasury' Balls, FFS, everyone was thrilled to see someone who clearly did care about education) and the consequences have been incredibly damaging, both for teaching and for children's education. It proves he is not suitable to be PM.

    Now if you will excuse me, I have to fetch my car. Will try to reply to any other comments later.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    FPT: @rcs100

    "Etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?"

    Virtue is its own reward.... :)
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    FPT thanks for ydoethur for being nice about me coming second to John Redwood. I would have preferred to have come first though.....
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac

    Trump 39 .. Cruz 30 .. Kasich 24
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 44

    Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
    Clinton 43 .. Cruz 43
    Clinton 35 .. Kasich 51

    Sanders 48 .. Trump 40
    Sanders 46 .. Cruz 38
    Sanders 40 .. Kasich 46

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/pa/pa04062016_Pfgr37w.pdf

    Worrying figures for HRC, PA looks very much in play for Trump as one would expect. OH, PA and FL look very doable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited April 2016
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:



    Given his efforts to understand prisoners, I'd say that your last comment is pretty much tosh.

    Stop thinking about the producers - start thinking about the consumers.

    More parents like Gove (because he cares about education) than teachers dislike him.

    Mortimer, may I gently suggest I know more of both groups than you do. I assure you I meet many parents who dislike Gove and I also meet many teachers, although a diminishing proportion, who dislike him.

    As for thinking about 'producers' rather than 'consumers' I assure you that I spend all my time in teaching thinking about what is best for the children in my care. So do almost all teachers of my acquaintance. The others don't last long. And of course being much closer to them than Gove (and I might add, rather more intelligent than he is) has it occurred to you that when I criticise the government's policy or more often, its implementation, it might be because I am right and he is wrong?

    As for his interest in the welfare of prisoners, a man who worked at News International and sat in cabinet with Huhne and Laws no doubt feels a certain comfort in dealing with them :wink:
    I see you're taking the Alastair Meeks course on presenting straw men on pb!

    Liberal reformers are often disliked by those who are impacted by the reforms. I apologise if you're one of the great exceptions - but a family member has worked in the management of several schools; the stories I hear of incompetence and lack of motivation amongst the teaching profession boggle the mind of anyone who works in other areas.

    I see Gove as a reforming professionaliser - this can only be good for the consumers; not only children but society at large who benefit from a better education youth.
    The impact of the reforms, done the right way, would have been enormously beneficial. They would also have had a positive impact on us as teachers, giving us a higher status, considerably more freedom and much less work.

    Done this way, with massive centralisation and prescription, they have massively increased our workload, reduced our pay, made people think we are left wing lunatics (you and Roger have both made that rather lazy assumption today) and literally brought the state education system to the brink of collapse. That's not needed or desirable.

    I responded to all your points directly. If there are straw men there it's because you set them up.

    PS 'who benefit from a better education youth.'

    I'm assuming it was an autocorrect mistake and not an ironical attempt to prove your own point.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    Ohhh....now remember how I said that there is a huge scandal brewing in online gambling world, with insider trading charges against the head of Amaya...well guess who is named in the Panama Papers...

    http://calvinayre.com/2016/04/05/business/panama-papers-link-amaya-gaming-insider-trading-investigation/

    TBH, when it comes to tales of online gambling operations, hard to beat the Full Tilt Poker, well we need a US payment processor, ok we have so much cash lets just buy a bank and put everything through as online purchases of golf balls.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    Re Paddy Power - bad news buried by Rangers and The Pope.

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/paddy-power-to-axe-hundreds-of-professional-roles-in-ireland-391388.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MrsB said:

    FPT thanks for ydoethur for being nice about me coming second to John Redwood. I would have preferred to have come first though.....

    Can I second that.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    The jury at the Hillsborough inquests into deaths of 96 Liverpool fans has been sent out to start deliberating after hearing two years of evidence.

    The seven women and three men will respond to a 14-section questionnaire on how the supporters died.

    One question asks if the fans were unlawfully killed in the 1989 disaster.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35979802
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    An ordinary bus driver's son.

    https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/717701876817530881
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    An ordinary bus driver's son.

    https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/717701876817530881

    By take on the extremists does he mean write foreground for their propaganda, visit them in prison as a close personal friend, speak on platforms with them, have friendly emails dialogue with... ?

    I don't for a minute believe Khan is an extremist or supporter, but its a bit of a stretch to say he takes them on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODEShfdxoR0&nohtml5=False
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited April 2016
    Is this Gap advert racist?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-35968787

    RACCCISTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...oh wait there is another picture the other way around...still RRRRRRACCCCISTTTTTT as "that lil white girl [in the old photo] looks fierce. The beautiful black girl [in the new photo] looks pissed,"...

    Need SAFE SPACE SAFE SPACE....don't you dare put your hand up, this is a SAFE SPACEEEE...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm shocked... Schools run by Britain’s biggest Islamic sect investigated after evidence of radical clerics and alleged terrorist sympathisers. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/islamic-sect-schools-are-investigated-over-radical-clerics-and-terrorist-sympathisers-5ks6c66jv
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,862
    @TSE - you have to admire the chutzpah of Paddy Power.

    It must be a real scream to work there. Fantastic sense of humour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is entertaining

    @davieclegg: The question Richard Lochhead is facing: "Did you leak a 13 year old email about Kez Dugdale and have you heard of Alistair Carmichael?"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited April 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:



    ...

    ...

    As for his interest in the welfare of prisoners, a man who worked at News International and sat in cabinet with Huhne and Laws no doubt feels a certain comfort in dealing with them :wink:
    I see you're taking the Alastair Meeks course on presenting straw men on pb!

    Liberal reformers are often disliked by those who are impacted by the reforms. I apologise if you're one of the great exceptions - but a family member has worked in the management of several schools; the stories I hear of incompetence and lack of motivation amongst the teaching profession boggle the mind of anyone who works in other areas.

    I see Gove as a reforming professionaliser - this can only be good for the consumers; not only children but society at large who benefit from a better education youth.
    The impact of the reforms, done the right way, would have been enormously beneficial. They would also have had a positive impact on us as teachers, giving us a higher status, considerably more freedom and much less work.

    Done this way, with massive centralisation and prescription, they have massively increased our workload, reduced our pay, made people think we are left wing lunatics (you and Roger have both made that rather lazy assumption today) and literally brought the state education system to the brink of collapse. That's not needed or desirable.

    I responded to all your points directly. If there are straw men there it's because you set them up.

    PS 'who benefit from a better education youth.'

    I'm assuming it was an autocorrect mistake and not an ironical attempt to prove your own point.
    The strawman comment was an attempt at a humourous response to your flippant, but presumably similarly humourous effort relating to prisoners....

    But I see that you haven't responded to my comments about just how much reforming the teaching profession still seems to need...

    There are great teachers - I'm sure you're one; a couple of my mates are too. But other people who I went to school with have become teachers in subjects at which they were during 5th form mediocre at best. They're posting '23 sleeps till holidays' or something similarly mindless on fb. That inspires little confidence. I'm not sure anyone absorbed in the day to day work of any non-commercial (and many commercial jobs) job has objectivity about the state of the profession.

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:



    ...

    ...

    As for his interest in the welfare of prisoners, a man who worked at News International and sat in cabinet with Huhne and Laws no doubt feels a certain comfort in dealing with them :wink:
    I see you're taking the Alastair Meeks course on presenting straw men on pb!

    Liberal reformers are often disliked by those who are impacted by the reforms. I apologise if you're one of the great exceptions - but a family member has worked in the management of several schools; the stories I hear of incompetence and lack of motivation amongst the teaching profession boggle the mind of anyone who works in other areas.

    I see Gove as a reforming professionaliser - this can only be good for the consumers; not only children but society at large who benefit from a better education youth.
    The impact of the reforms, done the right way, would have been enormously beneficial. They would also have had a positive impact on us as teachers, giving us a higher status, considerably more freedom and much less work.

    Done this way, with massive centralisation and prescription, they have massively increased our workload, reduced our pay, made people think we are left wing lunatics (you and Roger have both made that rather lazy assumption today) and literally brought the state education system to the brink of collapse. That's not needed or desirable.

    I responded to all your points directly. If there are straw men there it's because you set them up.

    PS 'who benefit from a better education youth.'

    I'm assuming it was an autocorrect mistake and not an ironical attempt to prove your own point.
    The strawman comment was an attempt at a humourous response to your flippant, but presumably similarly humourous effort relating to prisoners....

    But I see that you haven't responded to my comments about just how much reforming the teaching profession still seems to need...

    There are great teachers - I'm sure you're one; a couple of my mates are too. But other people who I went to school with have become teachers in subjects at which they were during 5th form mediocre at best. They're posting '23 sleeps till holidays' or something similarly mindless on fb. That inspires little confidence. I'm not sure anyone absorbed in the day to day work of any non-commercial (and many commercial jobs) job has objectivity about the state of the profession.

    The teachers are less of a problem than the failed teachers in the education bureaucracy.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dr_spyn said:

    An ordinary bus driver's son.

    https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/717701876817530881

    By take on the extremists does he mean write foreground for their propaganda, visit them in prison as a close personal friend, speak on platforms with them, have friendly emails dialogue with... ?

    I don't for a minute believe Khan is an extremist or supporter, but its a bit of a stretch to say he takes them on.
    Indeed. Not too sure how the "Chief Executive of TFL" fixes the housing crisis either.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,199
    edited April 2016
    I'm highly amused at the notion of a 'brutal attack' on someone by Matthew Parris (previous victims - everyone in Clacton) is likely to damage them within the Conservative party leadership rankings. Surely it's more of a badge of honour.

    Having said that, Boris is having a very bad war. I don't think it's his support for Brexit, I think it's the half-heartedness of his support for it. Once he was decided he should have known that was him and he had to demolish Dave and Remain or be demolished.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Casino_Royale said:

    @TSE - you have to admire the chutzpah of Paddy Power.

    It must be a real scream to work there. Fantastic sense of humour.

    I was surprised to discover recently that Paddy Power, your main man himself, is interviewed daily on TalkSport radio, discussing topical sporting events and the relating betting odds.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    O/T Just looking to book a hotel room, and was checking through some reviews:

    Rooms are really nice. We were upgraded as we needed a cot and the room might have been a little small without it, so was really pleased. Also, breakfast was great but unfortunately my daughter vomited all over the floor during it
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    peter_from_putney said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    @TSE - you have to admire the chutzpah of Paddy Power.

    It must be a real scream to work there. Fantastic sense of humour.

    I was surprised to discover recently that Paddy Power, your main man himself, is interviewed daily on TalkSport radio, discussing topical sporting events and the relating betting odds.
    The bookies love that station, Coral are on every morning too.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I did tip Michael Gove last month. His price will continue to shorten for the while.

    He would be an awful choice for the Conservatives (look at his poll ratings), but the Conservatives love him and right now they don't care what the general public think, because they arrogantly assume that there will be no electable alternative to them at the next general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited April 2016
    taffys said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    @TSE - you have to admire the chutzpah of Paddy Power.

    It must be a real scream to work there. Fantastic sense of humour.

    I was surprised to discover recently that Paddy Power, your main man himself, is interviewed daily on TalkSport radio, discussing topical sporting events and the relating betting odds.
    The bookies love that station, Coral are on every morning too.
    All promoting "The Ladbrokes life"

    Talksport is good when r5L gets too sanctimonious,
    R5L good for the adverts or when they're talking bollocks on Talksport.
    Radio 4 for the cricket, and occasionally "in our time" :)
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Having said that, Boris is having a very bad war. I don't think it's his support for Brexit, I think it's the half-heartedness of his support for it. Once he was decided he should have known that was him and he had to demolish Dave and Remain or be demolished.

    He is still trying to sit on the fence I think, the fence post is still jammed up his arse, he is just listing heavily to one side at the moment, I don't think anyone would be surprised for him to find an excuse to lean back the other way if it becomes certain that Leave are going to do badly. He is starting to make Dave "No Ifs No Buts" Cameron look principled, which when thrown into contrast by the principled and fair behaviour of Gove is an unfortunate look.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,199
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from Emirates Flight 009. The inflight Wifi blocks politicalbetting.com with a warning about viewing "inappropriate content" on the flight. Fortunately using vanilla works.

    Sigh.

    I guess I should create PB.com <-> IRC bridge.

    (But not today.)

    Now: etiquette question for PBers. On checking in, the lady asked me: "Do you mind getting broken up, because I can upgrade one of you to First Class." I immediately put my wife forward and offered to look after our two small children for the seven hour flight at the back of the bus.

    She accepted (and then texted me to say she was enjoying vintage Don Perignon.)

    What would be appropriate recompense for my extraordinary selflessness?

    Begins with B.












    ...Baking you a cake obviously.
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