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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin
In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz.
Comments
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OT
"Only little people pay taxes" Leona Helmsley.
It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.
After the Panama revelations anyone with money in such a jurisdiction is now coming under scrutiny. After the Iceland PM the second casualty looks like being the new President of FIFA.
A tiny tip of an extremely fetid iceberg
Oh dear.0 -
It is only in economics textbooks that entrepreneurship is over here and crime is over there.Roger said:OT
"Only little people pay taxes" Leona Helmsley.
It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.
After the Panama revelations anyone with money in such a jurisdiction is now coming under scrutiny. After the Iceland PM the second casualty looks like being the new President of FIFA.
A tiny tip of an extremely fetid iceberg
Oh dear.
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I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?0 -
I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.0 -
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?0 -
It's a pity the alternative to Trump is Cruz.
Knowing his first pledge as President is to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem must give GOP voters the eerie feeling that after escaping Planet Trump they've landed somewhere weirder
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What could be even worse for the party is a Trump nomination. This could have a huge impact on all the other elections taking place in November. Trump has not helped himself in recent days by some of his more extraordinary comments and the hostility to him is growing. That was why he got smashed in Wisconsin overnightDavidL said:I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.0 -
Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?0 -
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
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On the Panama thing, so far the stories emerging are fairly modest. My guess is that a number of African and eastern European leaders will eventually get their collars felt.
Keeping money offshore and undeclared is a bit of a mug's game if the object is simply to avoid a bit of tax. The risk of being caught is moderately high and the potential penalties involve jail. The returns for the UK taxpayer from the cd bought and the Swiss disclosure deals were not insignificant but they weren't huge either. "Voluntary" declarations have been the way forward.
It is a whole other story if the money offshore cannot be accounted for at all, that is if it is the source of criminal activity whether corruption, bribes, drugs, money laundering or brown envelopes. Then going to the expense and running the risks of investing through places like Panama makes much more sense. I suspect that a lot of the money will prove to be in this category . Those to whom those sort of funds are traced will have a lot of explaining to do.0 -
Apparently he knows the script of "The Princess Bride" by heart. they used to act it out at college parties. (I guess on the days when he wasn't out reciting the constitution).Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
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Inconceivable!0
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I'm not saying a Trump nomination is good for GOP candidates but a party split in 2 with the winner denied would be worse. They are in a bad place. What is strange is that Trump has not suddenly started to say daft things, he has been doing that from the start. What has changed is that they are now getting a traction they didn't get before. This may be a consequence of the thinning of the field or he may have ticked the media off just once too often.MikeSmithson said:
What could be even worse for the party is a Trump nomination. This could have a huge impact on all the other elections taking place in November. Trump has not helped himself in recent days by some of his more extraordinary comments and the hostility to him is growing. That was why he got smashed in Wisconsin overnightDavidL said:I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.
But Cruz? Jeez...will Kasich type republicans really vote for someone like that? Its Goldwater redux.0 -
Are you calling peak Trump?MikeSmithson said:
What could be even worse for the party is a Trump nomination. This could have a huge impact on all the other elections taking place in November. Trump has not helped himself in recent days by some of his more extraordinary comments and the hostility to him is growing. That was why he got smashed in Wisconsin overnightDavidL said:I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.0 -
Is there any correlation between states Hillary and Trump win?
I'm still amazed Bernie is doing so well.
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Tipping point?Casino_Royale said:
Are you calling peak Trump?MikeSmithson said:
What could be even worse for the party is a Trump nomination. This could have a huge impact on all the other elections taking place in November. Trump has not helped himself in recent days by some of his more extraordinary comments and the hostility to him is growing. That was why he got smashed in Wisconsin overnightDavidL said:I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.
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Nonsense. Would not arise because she does not have a passport.Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
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I can't stand Cruz.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
I think much of Trump's show is an act, even those his ramblings have managed to make Nigel Farage look measured by comparison.
His position on things like healthcare are moderate and well thought through.
Shame, really, because there's a strong political case to be made in America against excessive political correctness and excessive illegal immigration- but you have to be careful, not careless.-1 -
Nor does she trust the patriotism of those Americans who do...DavidL said:
Nonsense. Would not arise because she does not have a passport.Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
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If the alternative to Trump wasn't Cruz - then Trump wouldn't have half the delegates he has. And wouldn't be the Republican nominee.Roger said:It's a pity the alternative to Trump is Cruz.
Knowing his first pledge as President is to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem must give GOP voters the eerie feeling that after escaping Planet Trump they've landed somewhere weirder
Cruz makes my skin crawl.0 -
I wonder how many puffing him in preference to Trump would do so if they realised he was a Texas Senator?
All the guns and death penalties with loads of God thrown in.Casino_Royale said:
I can't stand Cruz.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
I think much of Trump's show is an act, even those his ramblings have managed to make Nigel Farage look measured by comparison.
His position on things like healthcare are moderate and well thought through.
Shame, really, because there's a strong political case to be made in America against excessive political correctness and excessive illegal immigration- but you have to be careful, not careless.0 -
With Hilary seemingly so well placed to win, I wonder if in the smaller states people are using the opportunity to remind her she's not very inspiring - there's not much risk so they can vote against and not worry about a trump vs sanders situation,Plato_Says said:Is there any correlation between states Hillary and Trump win?
I'm still amazed Bernie is doing so well.0 -
If only Cruz was the son of a bartender. He'd be Cruzing to the White House0
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Well, the electors were offered Rubio, Bush, Christie and Kasich - they still preferred Cruz and Trump.MarqueeMark said:
If the alternative to Trump wasn't Cruz - then Trump wouldn't have half the delegates he has. And wouldn't be the Republican nominee.Roger said:It's a pity the alternative to Trump is Cruz.
Knowing his first pledge as President is to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem must give GOP voters the eerie feeling that after escaping Planet Trump they've landed somewhere weirder
Cruz makes my skin crawl.
The Republican Party should learn something from this, but I'm not holding my breath.0 -
For all the talk of British media being poor and dusmissive of trump, there seems a lot of automatic sneering disdain for cruz on here. Which seems reasonable, he sounds like an awful candidate to me, but apparently a lot of Americans think he's great, or at least the leadt worst option.0
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He has been making extraordinary comments for months now and doing just fine. The question - well, one of the questions - is whether the whole be-outrageous style has gone sour for Trump or whether he just pressed the wrong button with abortion-punishment.MikeSmithson said:
What could be even worse for the party is a Trump nomination. This could have a huge impact on all the other elections taking place in November. Trump has not helped himself in recent days by some of his more extraordinary comments and the hostility to him is growing. That was why he got smashed in Wisconsin overnightDavidL said:I still think Trump is going to arrive at the Convention with a clear lead in delegates but a majority is now looking like a real stretch. Can the party really deny the winner?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.0 -
The slight flaw in your plan is that no one knows who has money over there unless they get lucky and someone leaks it. The thing about secrecy is it's secret. The other thing is that most of it happens in the USA, not in places with palm trees.Roger said:
It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.0 -
I'd cut the Americans some slack. They like the successful businessman as politicians. The Russians like strong dictators, and we like hypocrites.
They don't spend all their time mocking our choices; remember Jezza is the Labour leader. OK, he won't win because he means what he says (and he's a loon).
As for the offshore malarkey .... I'm still waiting for the big fish, it so far looks like a minor story blown up a lot.
But in British politics, fat cats are good for Labour, immigration is good for Ukip. NHS is good for Labour, Jezza on telly is good for the Tories ... whatever the details.
Yanks ... if only they were more like us, eh?.0 -
Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !0 -
Watch out for "the frontrunners comeback" as a headline.0
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Good morning.
A lot of pithy comments about Trump this morning. However, if, and it's a big if, he can regroup and get his act together he can still get the nomination.0 -
I prefer
https://youtu.be/zeVOXEs5qwoPulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !0 -
Morning all,kle4 said:
With Hilary seemingly so well placed to win, I wonder if in the smaller states people are using the opportunity to remind her she's not very inspiring - there's not much risk so they can vote against and not worry about a trump vs sanders situation,Plato_Says said:Is there any correlation between states Hillary and Trump win?
I'm still amazed Bernie is doing so well.
I suspect you may be right. It's an easy hit at the moment. Does it help? I'm not so sure. Keeps Hillary on her toes, but she'd be better used starting the national GE campaign.0 -
13% wins for both Cruz and Sanders gives them both momentum but Trump and Clinton should win New York, Trump probably by more than Hillary as it is Sanders birthplace.0
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Do they? Obama beat Mitt Romney it was Berlusconi who set the way for businessmen in politicsCD13 said:I'd cut the Americans some slack. They like the successful businessman as politicians. The Russians like strong dictators, and we like hypocrites.
They don't spend all their time mocking our choices; remember Jezza is the Labour leader. OK, he won't win because he means what he says (and he's a loon).
As for the offshore malarkey .... I'm still waiting for the big fish, it so far looks like a minor story blown up a lot.
But in British politics, fat cats are good for Labour, immigration is good for Ukip. NHS is good for Labour, Jezza on telly is good for the Tories ... whatever the details.
Yanks ... if only they were more like us, eh?.0 -
A contested convention would throw huge numbers of betting options. Or will Betfair suspend all bets during the actual convention?0
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Anyone know when the Netherlands referendum result is due?0
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They'd mock our choices if they followed our politics at all, it's just it happens a lot more the other way.CD13 said:I'd cut the Americans some slack. They like the successful businessman as politicians. The Russians like strong dictators, and we like hypocrites.
They don't spend all their time mocking our choices; remember Jezza is the Labour leader. OK, he won't win because he means what he says (and he's a loon).
As for the offshore malarkey .... I'm still waiting for the big fish, it so far looks like a minor story blown up a lot.
But in British politics, fat cats are good for Labour, immigration is good for Ukip. NHS is good for Labour, Jezza on telly is good for the Tories ... whatever the details.
Yanks ... if only they were more like us, eh?.
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In my view Trump will still be nominee in the end but if Hillary beats him Cruz has now set himself up to get the nomination in 20200
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Is that so she could experience the NHS up close and personal?Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Roger, I must say I find that post extremely disappointing. It's foetid*
The Republicans have the worst leadership lineup since the Angeli emperors.0 -
Still possible:MikeK said:Good morning.
A lot of pithy comments about Trump this morning. However, if, and it's a big if, he can regroup and get his act together he can still get the nomination.
"the permutations of how everything plays out from here are complicated even by FiveThirtyEight’s detail-loving standards."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/wisconsin-primary-presidential-election-2016/0 -
The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.0
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Hillary underperformed her polling, but outperformed my custom race model
New York is a CLOSED primary, so all the Sanders supporters will be banned. 16% black !0 -
I have to say at 2.16 I rather like Trump.
Sure he was too short a couple of weeks ago, but I think the market has over reacted.
The upcoming states are good for him, Ted's "New York values" jibe is going to bite him in the ass, the folks in the Empire State are a proud bunch.
Will he get the nomination, who knows. However I think he'll be trading below evens on the 20th.0 -
How much would Trump have to implode to lose NY?Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?0 -
A former governor of California?CD13 said:The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.
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Reagan was quite a succesful governor of a major state as well as a successful trade union organiser.Philip_Thompson said:
A former governor of California?CD13 said:The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.
He had quite big hands too.0 -
Did Jesse Ventura do his job any better or worse than others? Ditto Arnie?Philip_Thompson said:
A former governor of California?CD13 said:The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.
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Everything's going so well.....
Nicola Sturgeon has refused to say if she knew about corruption allegations surrounding the owner of one of the Chinese companies that she signed a £10 billion investment agreement with.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-to-answer-on-china-bribes-allegations-1-4091811#ixzz451odbgzA0 -
Of all the candidates in the race for president, the only one I could conceivably vote for is Sanders. And that staggers me.
The question then arises: would a Sanders presidency actually be able to do anything?0 -
If only it were true for Trump that if he can make it there he can make it anywhere.Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !0 -
Reagan was more likeable and pleasant than Trump nor did he alienate so many minoritiesCD13 said:The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.
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OT. Labour MP whose name I happily missed wants to ask Cameron if he is proud of his father......
I think we have to accept that there are no circumstances Labour wouldn't soil itself faced with any number of open goals0 -
Trump will pick up some delegates from Wisconsin.
He's ahead in CD3 +4 93% reporting and in CD7 +8 97% reporting
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/WI_GOP_0405_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS0 -
Another triumph for the Nats (£):
It was a politically motivated attempt to force the country’s most famous confectionery company to crumble. After Tunnock’s branded its classic snack product as the “Great British Tea Cake”, Scottish nationalists responded with fury and called for a boycott.
But it has emerged that the campaign backfired spectacularly, with sales soaring following the controversy.
The Lanarkshire company has revealed that it struggled to cope with demand and sold hundreds of thousands more biscuits after they were branded “traitors” by irate cybernats.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalist-storm-over-a-british-tea-cake-delivers-big-boost-to-tunnocks-sales-vr6xbqn3j0 -
The polls show Trump winning New York comfortably, Clinton is more likely to lose New York than Trump given Sanders was born in Brooklyn. If Sanders won New York and Cruz and Sanders won California the general election could even be Cruz v Sanders though unlikelyfoxinsoxuk said:
How much would Trump have to implode to lose NY?Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?0 -
More on press regulation:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35971933
Must say I'm not a fan of papers having to pay legal costs even if they win a case.0 -
Mr Thompson,
"A former governor of California?"
But mocked mercilessly by Brits who have elected as leaders ...
Tories ... William 'baseball cap' Hague
Labour ... Michael Foot and Jezza
Mr Smithson ... Jeremy Thorpe
Greens ... everybody
Ukip ... Nige
OK, I voted Labour in 1983 (but I was a boy of 33, young and unlearned. What's your excuse?).0 -
0
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Arnie did a good job in office. If he wasn't constitutionally forbidden I could have imagined him as President.Plato_Says said:Did Jesse Ventura do his job any better or worse than others? Ditto Arnie?
Philip_Thompson said:
A former governor of California?CD13 said:The Americans voted for Reagan and remember how we mocked him when he first came onto the scene. A 'B' list actor who hardly had two brain cells to rub together. By comparison, Trump is an intellectual giant.
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I can't see Trump getting to 1200 now let alone 1237. He could fall considerably short in the 1050 to 1150 range.
So a contested convention with all the hostility to Trump.
Tonight 'might' have been the first death-knell.
'Course there's one other scenario now looming. He doesn't get the nomination, goes independent and ... well, then what? Wins?0 -
At last, a boost for the Scottish petrochemical industry (at least, that is what I think they are made of)CarlottaVance said:Another triumph for the Nats (£):
It was a politically motivated attempt to force the country’s most famous confectionery company to crumble. After Tunnock’s branded its classic snack product as the “Great British Tea Cake”, Scottish nationalists responded with fury and called for a boycott.
But it has emerged that the campaign backfired spectacularly, with sales soaring following the controversy.
The Lanarkshire company has revealed that it struggled to cope with demand and sold hundreds of thousands more biscuits after they were branded “traitors” by irate cybernats.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalist-storm-over-a-british-tea-cake-delivers-big-boost-to-tunnocks-sales-vr6xbqn3j0 -
On health tourism:rcs1000 said:
Is that so she could experience the NHS up close and personal?Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
http://infacts.org/vote-leave-terribly-confused-health-tourism/
Cut wrists would count as emergency treatment so Ms Yankee-Doodle would probably get quite a good deal out of the NHS.0 -
He won't lose NY but the delegate projection of 70/95 is looking wildly optimistic. He could be in real trouble now in terms of crossing the delegate threshold.HYUFD said:
The polls show Trump winning New York comfortably, Clinton is more likely to lose New York than Trump given Sanders was born in Brooklyn. If Sanders won New York and Cruz and Sanders won California the general election could even be Cruz v Sanders though unlikelyfoxinsoxuk said:
How much would Trump have to implode to lose NY?Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?
Here's how a panel were predicting things shaping up: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
Look how poorly he performed tonight.0 -
Off-topic, and to raise the tone a little:
There might be progress in a side-field of teledildonics:
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/167100-Humans-Get-Weirdly-Aroused-When-They-Touch-Certain-Areas-on-Robots0 -
Roger..perhaps that cretinous Labour MP could request an Urgent Question on the matter..just to make us all roar with laughter..where does Labour find these people..0
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I find it quite amusing that people in the media are getting excited about Trump losing momentum when the alternative is Cruz.0
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My spelling is less than optimum so I just rechecked and according to my dictionary 'fetid' is correct. No?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Roger, I must say I find that post extremely disappointing. It's foetid*
The Republicans have the worst leadership lineup since the Angeli emperors.0 -
Fetid is US usage cf UK. A bit like Pediatrics vs Paediatrics or Color vs Colour.Roger said:
My spelling is less than optimum so I just rechecked and according to my dictionary 'fetid' is correct. No?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Roger, I must say I find that post extremely disappointing. It's foetid*
The Republicans have the worst leadership lineup since the Angeli emperors.0 -
Mr. Roger, I believe that's the Americanised version.
Mr. Jessop, just wait until there's VR porn. The peripherals may well resemble the Red Dwarf groinal attachment.0 -
A friend visiting the UK from Guernsey had a nasty accident - the NHS treated him superbly and saved his life - once he was stable they politely asked how he was going to pay - fortunately his company insurance covered the hundreds of thousands involved.....foxinsoxuk said:
Cut wrists would count as emergency treatment so Ms Yankee-Doodle would probably get quite a good deal out of the NHS.rcs1000 said:
Is that so she could experience the NHS up close and personal?Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?0 -
Surely there is a potential scenario where both Trump and Sanders "win" their party nominations based purely on Delegates but are denied by Superdelegates in Sanders case and the Contested Convention in Trumps.HYUFD said:
The polls show Trump winning New York comfortably, Clinton is more likely to lose New York than Trump given Sanders was born in Brooklyn. If Sanders won New York and Cruz and Sanders won California the general election could even be Cruz v Sanders though unlikelyfoxinsoxuk said:
How much would Trump have to implode to lose NY?Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?
Under those circumstances, Sanders and Trump might both be tempted to run as Independents and there is a genuine 4 way contest in the general.0 -
Where is Rod Crosby's spreadsheet when you need it?0
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It's a bit like they haven't thought through 'who could possibly be worse than Trump....?'MP_SE said:I find it quite amusing that people in the media are getting excited about Trump losing momentum when the alternative is Cruz.
0 -
Miss Vance, I would've thought there'd be a reciprocal arrangement with the Channel Islands. Seems a bit weird there isn't.0
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Just looked at it. Trump is predicted to be just 6 short.Casino_Royale said:Where is Rod Crosby's spreadsheet when you need it?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=00 -
As I understand it, by the time of the convention it will be too late to get on the ballot as an independent in most states. He wouldn't win as an independent anyway.Estobar said:I can't see Trump getting to 1200 now let alone 1237. He could fall considerably short in the 1050 to 1150 range.
So a contested convention with all the hostility to Trump.
Tonight 'might' have been the first death-knell.
'Course there's one other scenario now looming. He doesn't get the nomination, goes independent and ... well, then what? Wins?0 -
Was it a motor vehicle accident? These have been chargeable by the NHS for a long time.CarlottaVance said:
A friend visiting the UK from Guernsey had a nasty accident - the NHS treated him superbly and saved his life - once he was stable they politely asked how he was going to pay - fortunately his company insurance covered the hundreds of thousands involved.....foxinsoxuk said:
Cut wrists would count as emergency treatment so Ms Yankee-Doodle would probably get quite a good deal out of the NHS.rcs1000 said:
Is that so she could experience the NHS up close and personal?Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/nhs-to-claw-back-road-crash-costs-1176039.html0 -
Cruz was quite fortunate in getting to win his home state early, to punch up his delegate numbers. That said, at least he won his home state...Casino_Royale said:
Well, the electors were offered Rubio, Bush, Christie and Kasich - they still preferred Cruz and Trump.MarqueeMark said:
If the alternative to Trump wasn't Cruz - then Trump wouldn't have half the delegates he has. And wouldn't be the Republican nominee.Roger said:It's a pity the alternative to Trump is Cruz.
Knowing his first pledge as President is to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem must give GOP voters the eerie feeling that after escaping Planet Trump they've landed somewhere weirder
Cruz makes my skin crawl.
The Republican Party should learn something from this, but I'm not holding my breath.
But the republicans are so screwed if they are going in to bat for Cruz. It would be like the Conservatives having their Last Great Hope as John Redwood.....0 -
There already is, and was back in 1994-5 when the first big VR hype occurred.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, I believe that's the Americanised version.
Mr. Jessop, just wait until there's VR porn. The peripherals may well resemble the Red Dwarf groinal attachment.
As with video tapes and the Internet, porn can (ahem) arouse a new tech market into life.
There are apparently already VR and rift--compatible porn titles in the market.0 -
David Wasserman of 538 on the "wacky" delegate arrangements that are and will continue to favour Trump :
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-wacky-delegate-rules-are-helping-trump/0 -
No, fell into a pit in an unsecured building site next to the pavementfoxinsoxuk said:
Was it a motor vehicle accident? These have been chargeable by the NHS for a long time.CarlottaVance said:
A friend visiting the UK from Guernsey had a nasty accident - the NHS treated him superbly and saved his life - once he was stable they politely asked how he was going to pay - fortunately his company insurance covered the hundreds of thousands involved.....foxinsoxuk said:
Cut wrists would count as emergency treatment so Ms Yankee-Doodle would probably get quite a good deal out of the NHS.rcs1000 said:
Is that so she could experience the NHS up close and personal?Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/nhs-to-claw-back-road-crash-costs-1176039.html0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Miss Vance, I would've thought there'd be a reciprocal arrangement with the Channel Islands. Seems a bit weird there isn't.
There was, but the UK scrapped it - I think its been restored between Jersey & the UK, but not yet Guernsey.0 -
So Trump picked up the two CDs he needed to, funnily enough it looks like CD 2 was the one he narrowly missed out on.
On to NY where Trump needs to get 80 plus, which he should. A stronger firewall for Trump than HRC. Unfortunately for the special interests media buys are very expensive in that market. Trump should be able to make use of NY surrogates, like Guiliani or Christie, to pulverise Cruz for his NY values comment. Kasich struggles on in his bid to be Trump's VP, will they ever attack each other? An embarrassing vote total though.0 -
I thought that would happen. Nothing to do with politics It just reminded so many people of that marshmallow long forgotten. I bought a packetCarlottaVance said:Another triumph for the Nats (£):
It was a politically motivated attempt to force the country’s most famous confectionery company to crumble. After Tunnock’s branded its classic snack product as the “Great British Tea Cake”, Scottish nationalists responded with fury and called for a boycott.
But it has emerged that the campaign backfired spectacularly, with sales soaring following the controversy.
The Lanarkshire company has revealed that it struggled to cope with demand and sold hundreds of thousands more biscuits after they were branded “traitors” by irate cybernats.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalist-storm-over-a-british-tea-cake-delivers-big-boost-to-tunnocks-sales-vr6xbqn3j0 -
Suicide is a sin, according to those kind of Americans.Innocent_Abroad said:
Cruz appeals to the kind of American who would cut her wrists before she'd fly into Heathrow. There are lots of them.Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
The punishment for a failed attempt is execution.0 -
Welcome.DairA said:
Surely there is a potential scenario where both Trump and Sanders "win" their party nominations based purely on Delegates but are denied by Superdelegates in Sanders case and the Contested Convention in Trumps.HYUFD said:
The polls show Trump winning New York comfortably, Clinton is more likely to lose New York than Trump given Sanders was born in Brooklyn. If Sanders won New York and Cruz and Sanders won California the general election could even be Cruz v Sanders though unlikelyfoxinsoxuk said:
How much would Trump have to implode to lose NY?Pulpstar said:Fortunately for both Hillary and the Donald the next state is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?
Under those circumstances, Sanders and Trump might both be tempted to run as Independents and there is a genuine 4 way contest in the general.
There is no realistic path for Sanders based on pledged delegates. Sanders would have to win over two thirds of the remaining delegates within the PR format to catch Clinton - That isn't going to happen.
The Trump scenario is more likely but he remains the firm favourite.
0 -
I've been using this dictionary sitting at the bottom of my computer for over a year. MD's was the first complaint. People must have been humouring me. How embarrassing!foxinsoxuk said:
Fetid is US usage cf UK. A bit like Pediatrics vs Paediatrics or Color vs Colour.Roger said:
My spelling is less than optimum so I just rechecked and according to my dictionary 'fetid' is correct. No?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Roger, I must say I find that post extremely disappointing. It's foetid*
The Republicans have the worst leadership lineup since the Angeli emperors.0 -
Roger.. people who read the Guardian do that every day...ticking the typos must be more amusing than doing their crossword0
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effectRoger said:
I thought that would happen. Nothing to do with politics It just reminded so many people of that marshmallow long forgotten. I bought a packetCarlottaVance said:Another triumph for the Nats (£):
It was a politically motivated attempt to force the country’s most famous confectionery company to crumble. After Tunnock’s branded its classic snack product as the “Great British Tea Cake”, Scottish nationalists responded with fury and called for a boycott.
But it has emerged that the campaign backfired spectacularly, with sales soaring following the controversy.
The Lanarkshire company has revealed that it struggled to cope with demand and sold hundreds of thousands more biscuits after they were branded “traitors” by irate cybernats.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalist-storm-over-a-british-tea-cake-delivers-big-boost-to-tunnocks-sales-vr6xbqn3j0 -
Mr. Roger, don't feel bad. Mr. Eagles used 'license' as a noun the other day.
On typos, I always thought it was marshmellow, rather than marshmallow. I was perplexed when I discovered I was wrong.0 -
My wife says you've just ruined her favourite movie.dugarbandier said:
Apparently he knows the script of "The Princess Bride" by heart. they used to act it out at college parties. (I guess on the days when he wasn't out reciting the constitution).Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
Means I don't have to watch it again. Thanks
0 -
Charles said:
My wife says you've just ruined her favourite movie.dugarbandier said:
Apparently he knows the script of "The Princess Bride" by heart. they used to act it out at college parties. (I guess on the days when he wasn't out reciting the constitution).Plato_Says said:Me too. I honestly can't think of anything about Cruz that's attractive, looking like the offspring of Grandpa Munster doesn't help either. He's just creepy.
DavidL said:
I agree. I am no fan of Trump but given a forced choice between him and Lyin' Ted I would vote Trump in a heart beat.Plato_Says said:I'm looking forward to a sane knowledgeable discussion on here after enduring endless ill informed Never Trump stuff everywhere else. I want to throw things at the British media. It's so incredibly tedious.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
Means I don't have to watch it again. Thanks 0 -
There's one golden rule about typos on the internet.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, don't feel bad. Mr. Eagles used 'license' as a noun the other day.
On typos, I always thought it was marshmellow, rather than marshmallow. I was perplexed when I discovered I was wrong.
You can spot everyone else's typos, but never your own.0 -
Mr. Charles, The Princess Bride is superb. Your wife clearly has excellent taste.0
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It is, Mandy Patinkin who played Inigo Montoya also plays Saul Berenson on Homeland, they put in a little tribute to the Princess Bride into an episode.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, The Princess Bride is superb. Your wife clearly has excellent taste.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/08/12/revealed-behind-homeland-s-surprising-princess-bride-connection.html0 -
Mr. Eagles, that's very true. I (initially, corrected prior to posting) missed out the first I in disappointing, in that very post.0
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Certainly easierrichardDodd said:Roger.. people who read the Guardian do that every day...ticking the typos must be more amusing than doing their crossword
0 -
If you're either an establishment GOPer or very conservative or very evangelical, Cruz makes perfect sense. He's reliably conservative, genuinely God-worshipping and not mad. Trump is none of these things.
Sanders won big because of huge youth turnout - students standing in line for over 2 hours to vote. The "mobilise the people who don't vote much" strategy is working for him, and Labour should be studying how he does it.
New York may be decisive for both races. Cruz clearly has the momentum now and if he wins in NY he may wrap up nearly all the remaining states and leave Trump looking like a hopeless loser by the time of the convention. Similarly, Sanders really need to win in NY to break the "respectable second place" meme. I think Cruz has the better chance of the two - the polls can change quickly if a rival campaign looks shambolic. The closed primary in NY helps Clinton, as does the somewhat larger black vote, her Senate record and the fact that Wall Street staff (not a trivial number) actually get to vote here against the anti-Wall Street candidate.
Sanders didn't help himself with a lot of endearingly honest "I don't know" replies to a high-profile review - not sure how he'd restructure the banks, not sure where he'd hold prisoners if not Guantanamo, etc. Clinton is not hugely liked, but she is really the only seriously competent Presidential candidate out there apart from Kasich.0
