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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin
In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz.
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"Only little people pay taxes" Leona Helmsley.
It seems to be the consensus that ANYONE who has their money in a 'tax haven' (eg Panama) as opposed to a 'low tax jurisdiction' (eg Guernsey) is doing so to hide nefarious activities such as money laundering sanctions busting and tax evasion. There can be NO other reason.
After the Panama revelations anyone with money in such a jurisdiction is now coming under scrutiny. After the Iceland PM the second casualty looks like being the new President of FIFA.
A tiny tip of an extremely fetid iceberg
Oh dear.
That many are talking up Cruz is beyond me. Do they know anything about his political positioning?
Didn't Trump get 2 districts?
Back in the days of the smoke filled rooms of contested conventions there were far, far fewer primaries which gave the establishment much more power. These days the American people have pretty much all spoken and the winner in delegates and votes is surely the winner. Any other result threatens to destroy the party for good.
Trump really needs to get on the phone to Kasich and do a deal.
Knowing his first pledge as President is to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem must give GOP voters the eerie feeling that after escaping Planet Trump they've landed somewhere weirder
Keeping money offshore and undeclared is a bit of a mug's game if the object is simply to avoid a bit of tax. The risk of being caught is moderately high and the potential penalties involve jail. The returns for the UK taxpayer from the cd bought and the Swiss disclosure deals were not insignificant but they weren't huge either. "Voluntary" declarations have been the way forward.
It is a whole other story if the money offshore cannot be accounted for at all, that is if it is the source of criminal activity whether corruption, bribes, drugs, money laundering or brown envelopes. Then going to the expense and running the risks of investing through places like Panama makes much more sense. I suspect that a lot of the money will prove to be in this category . Those to whom those sort of funds are traced will have a lot of explaining to do.
But Cruz? Jeez...will Kasich type republicans really vote for someone like that? Its Goldwater redux.
I'm still amazed Bernie is doing so well.
I think much of Trump's show is an act, even those his ramblings have managed to make Nigel Farage look measured by comparison.
His position on things like healthcare are moderate and well thought through.
Shame, really, because there's a strong political case to be made in America against excessive political correctness and excessive illegal immigration- but you have to be careful, not careless.
Cruz makes my skin crawl.
All the guns and death penalties with loads of God thrown in.
The Republican Party should learn something from this, but I'm not holding my breath.
They don't spend all their time mocking our choices; remember Jezza is the Labour leader. OK, he won't win because he means what he says (and he's a loon).
As for the offshore malarkey .... I'm still waiting for the big fish, it so far looks like a minor story blown up a lot.
But in British politics, fat cats are good for Labour, immigration is good for Ukip. NHS is good for Labour, Jezza on telly is good for the Tories ... whatever the details.
Yanks ... if only they were more like us, eh?.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUrUfJW1JGk !
A lot of pithy comments about Trump this morning. However, if, and it's a big if, he can regroup and get his act together he can still get the nomination.
https://youtu.be/zeVOXEs5qwo
I suspect you may be right. It's an easy hit at the moment. Does it help? I'm not so sure. Keeps Hillary on her toes, but she'd be better used starting the national GE campaign.
Mr. Roger, I must say I find that post extremely disappointing. It's foetid*
The Republicans have the worst leadership lineup since the Angeli emperors.
"the permutations of how everything plays out from here are complicated even by FiveThirtyEight’s detail-loving standards."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/wisconsin-primary-presidential-election-2016/
New York is a CLOSED primary, so all the Sanders supporters will be banned. 16% black !
Sure he was too short a couple of weeks ago, but I think the market has over reacted.
The upcoming states are good for him, Ted's "New York values" jibe is going to bite him in the ass, the folks in the Empire State are a proud bunch.
Will he get the nomination, who knows. However I think he'll be trading below evens on the 20th.
Or is withdrawal/suspension the way for him to lose.
Is there value in laying Trump there?
He had quite big hands too.
Nicola Sturgeon has refused to say if she knew about corruption allegations surrounding the owner of one of the Chinese companies that she signed a £10 billion investment agreement with.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-to-answer-on-china-bribes-allegations-1-4091811#ixzz451odbgzA
The question then arises: would a Sanders presidency actually be able to do anything?
I think we have to accept that there are no circumstances Labour wouldn't soil itself faced with any number of open goals
He's ahead in CD3 +4 93% reporting and in CD7 +8 97% reporting
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/WI_GOP_0405_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
It was a politically motivated attempt to force the country’s most famous confectionery company to crumble. After Tunnock’s branded its classic snack product as the “Great British Tea Cake”, Scottish nationalists responded with fury and called for a boycott.
But it has emerged that the campaign backfired spectacularly, with sales soaring following the controversy.
The Lanarkshire company has revealed that it struggled to cope with demand and sold hundreds of thousands more biscuits after they were branded “traitors” by irate cybernats.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nationalist-storm-over-a-british-tea-cake-delivers-big-boost-to-tunnocks-sales-vr6xbqn3j
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35971933
Must say I'm not a fan of papers having to pay legal costs even if they win a case.
"A former governor of California?"
But mocked mercilessly by Brits who have elected as leaders ...
Tories ... William 'baseball cap' Hague
Labour ... Michael Foot and Jezza
Mr Smithson ... Jeremy Thorpe
Greens ... everybody
Ukip ... Nige
OK, I voted Labour in 1983 (but I was a boy of 33, young and unlearned. What's your excuse?).
Sam Wang Retweeted Brendan Nyhan
Good time to buy Trump shares.
So a contested convention with all the hostility to Trump.
Tonight 'might' have been the first death-knell.
'Course there's one other scenario now looming. He doesn't get the nomination, goes independent and ... well, then what? Wins?
http://infacts.org/vote-leave-terribly-confused-health-tourism/
Cut wrists would count as emergency treatment so Ms Yankee-Doodle would probably get quite a good deal out of the NHS.
Here's how a panel were predicting things shaping up: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
Look how poorly he performed tonight.
There might be progress in a side-field of teledildonics:
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/167100-Humans-Get-Weirdly-Aroused-When-They-Touch-Certain-Areas-on-Robots
Mr. Jessop, just wait until there's VR porn. The peripherals may well resemble the Red Dwarf groinal attachment.
Under those circumstances, Sanders and Trump might both be tempted to run as Independents and there is a genuine 4 way contest in the general.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/nhs-to-claw-back-road-crash-costs-1176039.html
But the republicans are so screwed if they are going in to bat for Cruz. It would be like the Conservatives having their Last Great Hope as John Redwood.....
As with video tapes and the Internet, porn can (ahem) arouse a new tech market into life.
There are apparently already VR and rift--compatible porn titles in the market.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-wacky-delegate-rules-are-helping-trump/
There was, but the UK scrapped it - I think its been restored between Jersey & the UK, but not yet Guernsey.
On to NY where Trump needs to get 80 plus, which he should. A stronger firewall for Trump than HRC. Unfortunately for the special interests media buys are very expensive in that market. Trump should be able to make use of NY surrogates, like Guiliani or Christie, to pulverise Cruz for his NY values comment. Kasich struggles on in his bid to be Trump's VP, will they ever attack each other? An embarrassing vote total though.
The punishment for a failed attempt is execution.
There is no realistic path for Sanders based on pledged delegates. Sanders would have to win over two thirds of the remaining delegates within the PR format to catch Clinton - That isn't going to happen.
The Trump scenario is more likely but he remains the firm favourite.
On typos, I always thought it was marshmellow, rather than marshmallow. I was perplexed when I discovered I was wrong.
Means I don't have to watch it again. Thanks
You can spot everyone else's typos, but never your own.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/08/12/revealed-behind-homeland-s-surprising-princess-bride-connection.html
Sanders won big because of huge youth turnout - students standing in line for over 2 hours to vote. The "mobilise the people who don't vote much" strategy is working for him, and Labour should be studying how he does it.
New York may be decisive for both races. Cruz clearly has the momentum now and if he wins in NY he may wrap up nearly all the remaining states and leave Trump looking like a hopeless loser by the time of the convention. Similarly, Sanders really need to win in NY to break the "respectable second place" meme. I think Cruz has the better chance of the two - the polls can change quickly if a rival campaign looks shambolic. The closed primary in NY helps Clinton, as does the somewhat larger black vote, her Senate record and the fact that Wall Street staff (not a trivial number) actually get to vote here against the anti-Wall Street candidate.
Sanders didn't help himself with a lot of endearingly honest "I don't know" replies to a high-profile review - not sure how he'd restructure the banks, not sure where he'd hold prisoners if not Guantanamo, etc. Clinton is not hugely liked, but she is really the only seriously competent Presidential candidate out there apart from Kasich.