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The Government really doesn’t want Lockdown 4 – politicalbetting.com
The Government really doesn’t want Lockdown 4 – politicalbetting.com
Three times in the last 18 months the UK has seen COVID cases rise sharply. Three times the government has imposed national restrictions. Now cases are up again, but in a post-vaccine world the government is very resistant to go down that road. Will they be forced to?
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‘Recalled French ambassador accuses Australia of ‘treason in the making’’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/recalled-french-ambassador-accuses-australia-of-treason-in-the-making-20210918-p58ssg.html
TREASON. Changing your mind about an arms deal is TREASON
Rifts over submarine contracts and migrant patrols have soured relations with a nation that should be our closest ally
Matthew Parris" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snubbing-the-french-is-a-foolish-mistake-s27jpn0s5
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/17/china-pumps-14bn-in-cash-into-market-amid-evergrande-crisis
This is really really bad news. Evergrande have fingers is all sorts of pies, not just real estate, they have 200k direct employees, 3.8 million indirectly. Also, China's largest high yield dollar bond issuer.
Add in the likes of the US going nuts with the money printing / borrowing. It could be 2008 all over again.
What does Germany think, or Italy? This is an arms sale, not a defensive pact. France has thrown its toys out of the pram because America has snatched an arms deal the French thought was theirs. It is not about defensive pacts. Whether there is much in it for Britain is what we should be asking.
LOL. So as a punishment they’re not going to take up the invitation to use Australian bases?
This is a diplomatic strop for the ages.
Oink, oink.
Anyone seen any antipodean squirrels?
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1438968321530114052?s=21
I can't see Covid causing another partial lockdown, yet alone another full lockdown.
But a Covid-flu combination could. If we even get an average flu year this year (and there are worries it may be worse), then there will be calls for restrictions to be slapped on. In many cases this will be for good, altruistic reasons; in some cases it will be because restrictions make them feel safe, or because calling for restrictions gives them power; or because restrictions can be a political weapon.
The government needs a little steel on this. Hospitalisations need to be key; no other metrics that iSage or other opponents pull out of their backsides.
But (sorry, PT) I'll be masking up in enclosed spaces this winter. It will help. It'll be moronic not to.
Covid has shown up quite how sparse our weapons against disease are. The vaccines were later then we needed, even fat a brilliantly accelerated development. Therapeutic developments have been very disappointing.
I would like to see a Manhattan Project on therapeutics. The world needs to throw billions into development of drugs and strategies that will help keep people out of hospital from even 'normal' illnesses such as flu.
An issue is that vaccines have been seen to work and, in a couple of cases, vastly profitable. The sector will throw lots of money into vaccines. But vaccines are inevitable delayed; they need to be developed for each individual illness. Therapeutic drugs and techniques can help with many different illnesses that attack in similar ways.
(Yes, I know lead times on these projects are long. But the construction timescales on the Attack class were ludicrous. 25 years - and I doubt they would meet that. And in the five years after the deal was signed, there was nothing. And in the meantime, the existing Collins class were aging.)
As for the cost: AU$80 billion for 12 boats. The proven Japanese alternative was AU$25 billion. Other European countries were offering boats for AU$20 billion.
Vaccines have worked
The pandemic is largely behind us
But it's OK to be a little more paranoid than normal
We have a friend with an nine year old child in hospital with Covid. Not serious, apparently. But the mother is in a camp bed, by his side. Not fun.
Over the next six months, it'll work its way through unvaccinated populations. Mostly people will be fine.
But there's no harm in us all being a little more careful than we'd normally be. An infection deferred is one that might very well be avoided altogether.
Still, let's not let reality get in the way of a good story.
It’s a shame that they didn’t find a route in the Pacific that kept us united. Why couldn’t the Aussies have both types of submarines?
Also, NG and France's behaviour throughout this has not been that good IMO. It's not all Australia's fault.
Then you finally get the issue that the Attack-class didn't really meet their needs in the first place.
This video goes into a little (ahem) more detail:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2vnciriE_Q
Of course, the government doesn’t want to do anything to hurt the economy. But I won’t wear a mask to do something that I can do from home.
Also, bear in mind that no deal has been done for anything the moment. They are now off on a multi year exercise to define requirements (again).
Not sure whether it’s a school initiative or a government one. Would be a rare moment of sense if the latter as it would definitely help reduce flu transmission and therefore pressure on the NHS, as well as hopefully reducing school absence.
At the moment the signs seem positive, with the rate of positive tests (I wish they would stop calling it "cases", which is just plain wrong) falling, contrary to most expectations, for the second time in a couple of months.
Deaths as a proportion of positive tests have been rising, but that is probably manageable so long as infections don't start rising rapidly again. As always, "cases" are the key, regardless of moderate fluctuations in the death rate and hospitalisation rate per "case".
But the situation in Scotland at the moment should be a caution against thinking there's nothing to worry about any more.
I mean, I know it's still only mid-September and the campaign probably hasn't started to ramp up properly yet, but it does make you wonder.
https://youtu.be/MTCqXlDjx18
I'm with Pip on this. I'm on a profit either way, but heavily skewed towards no. I'll probably stick with that.
I do not expect a further lockdown unless the virus escapes the vaccines
Life seems to be back to near normal and of course the booster jabs are on their way
On the French strop has any EU country come out in support of them
I have heard it said that in any security crisis the US would be their first call for help
It is unfortunate that France has fallen out with AUKUS but ultimately this is not about France or Europe, but the defence of the Trans Pacific and just as EU countries would if under threat, Australia has turned to the US
When the First Sea Lord was invited to a meeting at the Australian high commission in March this year, he had no idea of the magnitude of what was about to unfold. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin — described by colleagues as a “doer” — was asked by Vice-Admiral Michael Noonan, the Australian Chief of Navy, whether the British and Americans could help their ally to build a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines......
So began Operation Hookless — as it was codenamed inside No 10 —and the most closely guarded secret inside government in years. Only about ten people in Britain were privy to the details, including the prime minister, the foreign secretary and the defence secretary. ....
Although initial conversations had begun around the submarines, back in No 10 an excited Johnson was keen for something much deeper. “Boris really pushed it. There was a choice about how broad it would be — was it just a technical agreement on a specific subject or is this more broad? Boris was pushing that it had to be as ambitious as possible. This was a strategic move,” a government source who was involved in the discussions said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f8481ac4-17c1-11ec-8982-e4706e2eecb0?shareToken=1b335c267f88cba1427010ce70bbe6ba
Currently: Yes 1.45, No 2.9
I've been betting No in this market for a while @ 4. Just added a bit more at 2.94.
I think No should be slight favourite.
Mr. Jonathan, possibly, but has not Macron said on the record that he wants a middle course between the USA (a democracy) and China (a tyrannical dictatorship complete with concentration camps)?
"Hugh White : what SM has done this week. He has tied Australia to a deal that undermines our sovereign capabilities,overspends on hardware we can barely be confident of operating,& drags us closer to front line of a war we may have no interest in fighting."
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2021/09/18/the-submarine-the-ridiculous/163188720012499?utm_source=tsp_website&utm_campaign=social_mobile_twitter&utm_medium=social_share
There was also the improvements in supplying oxygen that came out of the ventilator challenge.
I can't find much to fault in the medical response. There is a question over whether challenge trials should be used to speed up the vaccine development process.
People with cancer forced to go private
In January this year, Steve Deeman in Nottinghamshire was looking at an eight-week delay to have the lesion on his forehead diagnosed. “It was suspicious looking and grew quite rapidly over the next few weeks,” said the 69-year-old retired teacher.
He was referred to a local hospital dermatology department in early March and was given a consultation appointment for May. “I decided I couldn’t wait that long and sought private medical care a few days later,” he said.
Deeman saw a specialist dermatologist who diagnosed the lesion as cancerous and it was removed the next day. His treatment so far has cost about £1,500 but further follow-ups have been recommended which could bring the total to £2,000. “I was fortunate in that I was able to afford treatment but there are a lot of people who wouldn’t be able to.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/18/i-couldnt-wait-britons-without-health-insurance-on-why-they-paid-to-go-private
Three-year waiting lists to pull rotten teeth
When Fabien needed to have a decayed tooth removed in May, his dentist told him that he would have to wait up to three years to have it done on the NHS. In disbelief, the 27-year-old from Edinburgh rang 50 dental practices but without any luck. He had no choice but to go private. Having lost his job during the pandemic, he was on universal credit and had to borrow the £600 from his family.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/18/private-hospitals-profit-from-nhs-waiting-lists-as-people-without-insurance-pay-out
If you've the means and knowhow to trade in shares then private healthcare groups are probably a good bet. As the latter piece goes on to say, quoting the director of a health think tank,
“There is a big risk that unless government provides adequate funding for the NHS, more and more people will be forced to pay privately, which in turn will undermine middle-class support for a tax-funded NHS.
“It’s not likely that we will end up with a US-style insurance system. But a two-tier system, where the NHS is a residual service for those without the means to pay is a possibility – ultimately these are political choices.”
https://www.synairgen.com/
By its mechanism of action it should work on all respiratory viruses, not just coronavirus variants. Phase 3 trials reporting soon.
It says:
"Passengers who aren’t recognised as being fully vaccinated with authorised vaccines and certificates under England’s international travel rules, will still have to take a pre-departure test, a day 2 and day 8 PCR test and self-isolate for 10 days upon their return from a non-red list country under the new two-tiered travel programme. Test to Release will remain an option for unvaccinated passengers who wish to shorten their isolation period."
So children (of vaccinated parents) returning to UK (who will not, of course, had time for their two jabs) will be caught by this?
At the moment a non-vaccinated child returning to UK from green or Amber needs a pre-departure test and a Day 2 PCR only. This change means that this continues PLUS needs Day 8 test AND has to quarantine.
I think I must have misunderstood?
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/shares-spire-healthcare-drop-takeover-ramsay-fails-b946530.html
If I were to go to someone's house and they asked me to wear a mask, I would.
As for their "effectiveness", I think they have been effective and were so when generally worn - obviously less so when generally not.
Has anyone any information on whether cases of this virus are growing? I believe Mrs Stodge and I have this - we have both tested negative for Covid.
https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html
Yet he's actually taking a better line than the far-more-acceptable Macron when it comes to China.
Derby County into administration. I don't think it will be the only football club to go this way.
The strategic need for Australia and the Trans Pacific made the US the only viable partner and the UK and US have shared expertise hence AUKUS
France has overacted
Last week in the Speccie he said that he couldn't live without red wine but could live without books. Suddenly I realised I have no idea at all what makes him tick.
In fact, the rules for 12-15 year olds will need, of necessity, to be a little different as I seem to recall that it has only been recommended that they receive a single dose at this stage. This could cause ructions in and of itself, if the countries to which they are travelling expect fully vaccinated travellers all to have been lanced twice.
The best advice for people thinking of travelling abroad with teenagers may still be "don't bother," at least for now.
Western democracies have fundamental values - freedom of speech, of assembly, of religion - that our forefathers fought and bled to secure. We must stick up for those values and not kowtow to an authoritarian dictatorship for a couple of brass farthings
As for Australia, the rising threat of China is something that must be accounted for. Sure, you can feed a crocodile, but appeasement does not work. Australia must be able to defend itself.
Your alternative idea being, presumably, that China's neighbours should all accept that they are hopelessly outmatched, that any kind of military establishment is therefore a pointless waste of money, and they should therefore simply roll over?
Abolishing the defence budget would, after all, leave vast amounts of money to spend on the dissemination of Xi Jinping Thought and to create statues and other monuments to His everlasting glory.
If you want to understand Whitehall, watch Yes Minister and The Thick of It.
If you want to under Australian Defence policy, The Hollowmen is a useful primer.
I still have a lot of Australian family, and several direct relatives buried in Australian military cemeteries, so please spare the sanctimony.
Meanwhile we arm the salafists of KSA to the teeth, so spare us the bullshit on standing up for freedom of religion and human rights.
I think I've misunderstood something; the news is being heralded as a major loosening up and I can't find and comment supporting the paragraph above (which is from a gov press release!).
Bookings going through the roof, esp Oct Half Term:
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delighted-travel-firms-see-surge-in-bookings-as-traffic-light-system-scrapped-as-government-faces-calls-to-remove-testing-altogether-12410617
But it’s ethically questionable to run a challenge trial on a human subject. We were the only country that I remember being willing to do it
Of those by far the most remarkable to me as a layman remains the Novavax vaccine developed by computer modelling of the virus without even bothering to work on the virus itself. The implications of this sort of capability in devising new medicines are just mind blowing both in terms of speed of development and cost. We absolutely need to keep this going but I have no doubt that that sort of tech is going to change all pharma for ever. It is ground breaking. I confidently predict that within the next 30 years more lives will be saved by this than have been lost to Covid.
If they want boats before 2035 the only option is to buy the two Astutes under construction at Barrow. The tories, who never saw a defence cut they didn't like, would love this but it might not be politically sustainable in Australia - I don't know.