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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
To you lurkers, why not take the final few Steps to delurking? I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten. It’ll be a Tragedy if 5,6.7,8 lurkers don’t delurk.
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:yawn:
It's interesting how certain Roman chaps (Mark Anthony, Pompey) still have, effectively, Anglicised names (in common usage).
I wonder if Miliband could be a modern day Jovian. In Ammianus Marcellinus' history, Jovian is emperor just long enough to concede a cowardly and ruinous treaty with Sapor (reasonably sure that's more commonly written Shapur) before dying of unexplained causes.
Yeh, green, like mouldy cheese; the spores are spreading.
Why does Cammo keep declaiming inanities?
Those pesky Greeks.
Russell Brand would definitely be a Slytherin. He has the look. In fact, he does look rather like the illegitimate love-child of Gregory Goyle and Hestia Carrow.
The combined scores for the leaders is quite funny. Is it so surprising even an absurd party like UKIP is doing so well at the moment?
Alas, the end of the republic found a great many chaps who were a bit of a bastard. Not a Camillus in sight.
It could always be down to charm, charisma and a sense of humour.
I do admire the pathological patriotism of the earlier republican Romans. One wonders what a modern country with that kind of brutal selflessness could achieve. It's just one of many reasons I like reading about the Second Punic War so much. The Romans were crazy to continue. I calculated once that Cannae was the equivalent of a battle outside London killing 200 MPs or so and the PM or monarch (one consul died). One battle, after being butchered at Trasimene and losing at Trebia and Ticinus.
I think we can learn a huge amount from that period, not least the difference between the state as an instrument of civilising influence, and as an overmighty and intrusive force. The divergence between the Rome of the Second Punic War and the one infested with delators (informers) for Tiberius and Sejanus was stark.
Bit rambly. Sorry.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead falls to three points: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
And my sense of humour that has occasionally got me dumped.
I read somewhere a few weeks ago, that more and French people are coming over here to avoid his tax policies.
This invasion could have the same effect upon as the Norman Invasion.
Back to politics... I see the UKIP lead over the LDs is back up to 4%, today's poll had it down to 1% but recently the difference has been growing in YouGov polls. and it certainly looks like the Labour 9% lead in the Sunday Times was an outlier.
Last week:
YouGov (average of 5 polls) - 6.8%
Populus - 7%
This week:
YouGov (average of 2 polls) - 4%
Populus - 5%
ICM - 3%
OK, it's only a few polls and there is always some random variation. But even so, it has to be at least somewhat encouraging for the Conservatives.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Immigration now just 1 point behind the economy as the most important issue facing the country - 60% v 61%...
.only a matter of time before immigration comes top as the economy improves. MPs from all parties take note.
Because nobody, nobody, would want to hear what he really thinks or believes. So he has two choices talk in platitudes A level rubbish or stay silent. Unwisely in my view, he chooses the former. After all if he stopped gobbing off people could at least pretend to themselves he was a man of morals, courage and wisdom rather than having the fact that he is an amoral, vacuous PR spiv shoved down their throats.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 59s
When the Tories get a poll lead the Labour Party will resemble that 'Airplane' scene when Julie Haggerty asks if there's a pilot on board...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/business/international/french-workers-hold-goodyear-managers-over-jobs.html?pagewanted=1&src=recg&_r=0
http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php/news/world-news/142856-goodyear-managers-freed-at-french-plant
I mean, haven't we all felt like kidnapping our bosses at one time or other?
Ed's new big play? RT @maitlis: We understand cap on market share will be proposed around 25 percent - ed mil to say on Friday #newsnight
Chortles..
Now Ed wants to downsize Lloyds HBOS.
Who can say that Ed has not broken with the past?
There is a damn good report on Banking Standards by Tyrie's Parliamentary Commission. Why doesn't he read and understand that if he wants to do something sensible.
Edit: and an Old Marlburian too!
Yes man is Scottish nut (7)
Is that Tony Blair, Total Fail?
If so, we have learnt.
25% market share is clearly the most any bank should have, it's not at all a number plucked out of the air without any reasonable justification.
Fag packet policy. Again.
To get such a policy you need to use the random policy generator.
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2007-07-13/
Labour majority nailed on...
Given that the British public is roughly evenly divided between eurosceptics and europhiles, has there ever, in the entire history of the BBC, been a segment where both guests agreed it was a mistake to stay in the EU, let alone a "catastrophe"?
And, of course, the emergency liquidity provided by the Bank of England...
The people who ridiculed it were right.
Farage to appear on at least one of the leader debates I want £100 at 9/4.. I'm not a snide, I don't want paying out if he is in the audience or in the pub via video link etc
This doesn't have to be so difficult, you can say no if you like
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/jun/15/lloyds-dumps-customers-tsb
One of my uncles has been forced to transfer his account, and cannot transfer it back.
Welcome to the wonderful world of banking competition.
Every stupid fad he runs with blows up in his face:
too far too fast? That went well
Cost of living crisis? Inflation 2% and average wage rises on the up
The man is an opportunist, but all the bandwagons he jumps on have already passed by.
No doubt Labour supporters will hail this as a great strategic move like Caesar crossing the Rubicon meets Eisenhower launching Operation Overlord.
Just like they did with the energy prices cap
Will Ford have a quota of cars to sell? Will Tesco's be forced to close their doors after serving a certain number of customers? Will TVs automatically tune to another channel if too many people are watching a certain programme? Will Liverpool have to transfer fans to Everton? Will the Conservative Party have a voter limit imposed upon it?
No, it wasn't the depositors that were propped up. That would be the government paying out on the deposit guarantee. The money went straight to the banks themselves.
I'm an account holder in RBS and did not want to be moved against my will to Santander and nor do I want anything like that to happen in future just because of some arbitrary government decision.
There is much to be done to create a viable financial services industry but I absolutely do not trust Labour to do it, given the heavy responsibility they bear for the banking culture which was allowed to flourish for 13 years under them and the largely useless regulatory system they put in place. Labour were too in love with bankers' bonuses as a source of revenue for them to do anything effective either to protect consumers or encourage a worthwhile financial sector.
No reason to believe they have understood any of the lessons. Or that they won't make the same or equally stupid mistakes again.
The problem with banks is that they aren't, for good reason, like other competitive industries operating in a free market. If Woolworths stops selling product that people are willing to buy it goes out of business. A few commentators get nostalgic but the general public doesn't suffer. Bankruptcy or liquidation is regarded as a sign of a functioning market.
If a bank fails then the entire life savings of voters are put at risk; corporate customers stop functioning; and the markets and population panic leading to a crash in property and other asset prices.
The need to protect banks from failure means that risk management and adequate capitalisation is far more important than enforcing a highly competitive market. This has led to banking sectors becoming highly concentrated in all global markets. US banks, once restricted in function and territory, can now open branches across states and carry out a full range of banking functions. Throughout Europe, the distinction between Savings Banks, Co-operative Banks and Commercial Banks have become eroded as banks from different sectors merge and restructure.
The first priority for the UK is to stabilise our banking sector through adequate capitalisation, balance sheet restructuring where necessary, better prudential and conduct supervision, improved risk management and funding support which allows lending to industry. Much work has been done in these priority tasks but we still don't have a fully functioning industry of privately owned banks. At least another two years is needed to return the banking sector to full health.
Simply slicing up the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Groups on the grounds that they hold too high a share of say, the domestic mortgage market, will not result in any improvement of services to UK customers or even increase the volume or lower the cost of credit supplied to industry.
All Miliband's proposal will do is frighten investors and knock billions off the share prices of the large groups, frustrating the timing of the sale of government shares and lowering taxpayer value.
It is a highly irresponsible and ignorant proposal which will be dressed up under a false cloak of populist consumerism. Miliband is a truly dangerous politician.
Is Mr Farage still the most popular?
The Mail have an article covering 2013, and he's doing better than the -13 attributed to Mr Cameron in the IPSOS link.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2525968/Have-voters-fallen-love-Nigel-Farage-Collapse-ratings-UKIP-leader-seen-style-substance.html
Presumably this explains why the Brownites supported his leadership bid; certainly there seems no other possible explanation.
Otherwise he will be in office but not in power and he will achieve nothing or make things worse for those who do vote for him - not to mention everyone else.
There is a difference between striking attitudes and achieving real worthwhile change. Does Milliband understand that? All he's done so far is the former. Any fool can do that.