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The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022 – politicalbetting.com
The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Chart from the University of Texas
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The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Chart from the University of Texas
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Though his immortal line in the excellent film Dazed and Confused, where he plays an adult sleaze:
"That's what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older, they stay the same age"
Will always raise a guilty smile.
And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
Her Majesty's racehorse, Reach for the Moon, is 10/1 second-favourite for the 2022 Derby, and runs this afternoon in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
The reason I mention this is the mildly amusing prospect of the Derby being fought between the royal runner and Downing Street. The prorogation of Parliament redux. (Only mildly amusing!)
The Derby will be one of the events in the so-called Central Weekend of the diamond jubilee:-
https://www.royal.uk/platinum-jubilee-central-weekend
But thanks for the thought.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html
How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.
Justin doesn’t get out much.
Even if Johnson thought he could win big.
Quite extraordinary given his attitude. I know people don’t like the pile on but he’s as bad an advert for his party as the Momentum idiots for Labour. The reason why Momentum were so damaging for Corbyn was because we knew they were singing songs written by their leader. And the trouble for Johnson, is this feels the same.
I’d stick to the pipe & bowl
F1: pre-sprint race waffle:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/09/italy-pre-sprint-race-2021.html
- on a personal level he is infuriatingly stubborn. It’s a shame because he has interesting perspectives and data but he’s just dull to debate with
- As a politician he’s dreadful. He’s more interested in chasing voters away. His reaction last night (I think to @MaxPB but it could have been @Philip_Thompson) was “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out”
That’s not a good way to win an election…
I say this an an observer of the political scene for many many years
And he doesn't appear to have a sense of humour.
Then there is his defence of Franco and advocacy of military intervention as a means of defeating political opponents.
In fact, there are few areas of public life where his views are not repulsive. And yet, and yet… he is the truest representative of Clownism on this site. Is Johnson really as nasty and wicked as his strongest cheerleader?
It’s not very nice.
"There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.
There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."
It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.
* organic vegan ones of course.
Plebeian criticism = ugly
That’s us telt.
Not trying to exculpate myself
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/09/10/exclusive-poll-conservative-red-wall-mps-lose-seats-boris-johnsons/
I note Douglas's Ross loses his seat, FWIW.
It really is quite hard to see the Republicans losing TX, though the abortion law could motivate Dem turnout.
I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Incidentally, Douglas Ross is (rather unpleasantly) surprising me on the upside. Fortunately, Anas Sarwar is more than compensating by gravely underperforming expectations.
Very strange, as on paper Sarwar is by far the more experienced politician. But maybe working deep in the heart of Scottish football culture gives Ross a better understanding of Scots’ psychology than living off your dad’s wholesale empire.
Anyhow I cannot comment, having not witnessed much of last night’s discussion being an hour ahead. Cloudy this morning here, for the first time in ten days.
1. stubborn
2. repulsive
… “meant to be constructive”?
Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
That’s not an accurate reflection of what I said. But we should not continue this discussion.
“- on a personal level he is infuriatingly stubborn. It’s a shame because he has interesting perspectives and data but he’s just dull to debate with
- As a politician he’s dreadful. He’s more interested in chasing voters away. His reaction last night (I think to @MaxPB but it could have been @Philip_Thompson) was “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out””
I summarised your assessment as:
1. stubborn
2. repulsive
In what way is my summary inaccurate?
I actually agree with you Charles, so I’m not sure why you’re trying to pick an argument.
As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632
The term “repulsive” is usually used about someone personal characteristics. That is not what I said.
I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’m embarrassed that I said something that, while meant constructively, appeared to risk triggering a rather unpleasant discussion about an individual poster. That’s not what this board should be about and hence I don’t want to prolong the discussion.
Edit: or have the comments repeated.
While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
Charles as Clint.
I was close.
A colleague this week raised doubts about returning amid high cases rates, as she cares for her 80 year old father. And was told, don’t worry the government has things in control. By the way can you cover for X this week? His father in law died of covid on Sunday.
Getting out of touch on Green Issues though - his factoid was that UK causes 2% of global C02 emissions, whilst it is now about half that. He did some great stuff in that area an needs to catch up.
Too much oppositionalism at the moment.
On the salient point @Quincel is right, of course. It’s a state where the real competition is currently the Republican primary. That probably will change again, as it has in say, Georgia, but it will be interesting to see how and when.
However, the biggest challenge for the Democrats, particularly in the mid-terms, has often been in driving turnout. This surely has to be an issue with the potential to boost Democrat turnout.
The bed and Emergency dept situation in my Trust is as bad as I have ever known. It was so backed up on Monday that ambulances couldn't unload for as long as 6 hours. Trolley waits in ED of over 24 hours are a regular thing.
Covid is part of it, but the whole system has got gummed up and average length of stay has significantly grown, pushing capacity to the limit. Staff vacancies, and absence on sickness or maternity are at record highs. It is hard to discharge patients too as community support services seem parlous too.
And no-one expects it to get better this side of Christmas. It is going to be a rather depressing grind.
But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?
I know which one I think it is…
Stay strong Dr. Unlike the government, we’re all behind you.
Mmmm - Texas betting. Anything I post today will be off-topic, except that ime Texas is where Cowboys and Lawyers come from, sometimes in the same individual.
I see there was quite the property dustup yesterday, with Millionaire @MaxPB Guevara riding out with his portable guillotine. Great stuff
Any private landlord who lets a Council near a property is usually nuts. Where do they think the mad, bad, dangerous to know, or trash-the-house tenants may strangely end up? There are far too many horror stories to contemplate it.
To Legal & General's credit, they are actually building stuff (about 5000 nearly-all-flats so far). To their lack of credit, they are only pitching for about the top quarter of the market - and not really addressing affordable renting, or only very slowly.
I don't think insurance companies will ever compete with small private landlords locally, as they won't get the economies of scale and the returns are too low to support the corporate megastructure.
Personally, I think that one reason Osborne decided to try and break the legs of the PRS was to let big corporates get a look in. As it is, L&G and similar are limiting themselves to estates with very high rents.
If any of those proposals became law the Democrats chance will be even lower
One supposes that the greater number of the most vulnerable were vaxxed using Pfizer. My memory is that Azn came in slightly later for the 60s and below, with some 70s getting it too?
It’s not clear how far Delta’s R can be shifted with standard masks and no night clubs. I wrote to my MP over a month ago on this. Not just preemptive boosters for the over 70s but also the distribution of FFP3 masks to vulnerable groups. “I will pass on your interesting proposal to the Health Sec”. Saj didn’t get the memo obviously.
Will be interesting to see if the guidance to big employers changes again. I’m expecting it to by Halloween roughly.
From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.
Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.
Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.
Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
Interesting relegation battle at Arsenal. If they cannot beat Norwich...
https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/1436597000800194560
Or is A&E just full of mildly ill people who should be seeing a GP but can't or won't?
A few months ago, Tony Blair said that you must never say that you’d do something that you know you wouldn’t. I’m fairly sure Labour wouldn’t go after landlords as they’d know that a house price crash would be utterly catastrophic for a lot of people in this country, the economy, and public finances.
I shall be wearing mine at the footy, so if you look on MOTD it will be easy to spot me. Man City will be tough, but hope springs eternal, and Leicesters defensive injury crisis seems over, with Evans, Bertrand, Vestergard and Ricardo all back, albeit maybe not quite match fit yet.
There are no good choices when it comes to increasing taxes and apart from CGT no other tax increase approval was lower than NI in the recent poll
It has been said that rental companies should pay tax and NI and I checked it out this morning and apparently they do pay both
It is without doubt true that if taxes rise on landlords the rent to the tenant will rise
As an example a £1,200 tax increase would see the rent rise by a least £100 per month hitting already hard pressed tenants
Rent controls could be considered but that just reduces supply and again increases demand and rents
https://www.gov.uk/renting-out-a-property/paying-tax
We want to maximise labour mobility. So we should make it tax deductible to rent out one property if you live in a rented one.
We want to ensure affordability, so that housing costs don’t impede standards of living / disposable incomes. One obvious measure is to tax to death (or in fact outright ban) property ownership by non resident foreigners. Another is to kill the rent seeking behaviour of multiple property ownership, whereby those with capital and access to leverage can cruise to a high wealth level through property inflation rather than endeavour.
We want to ensure the efficient allocation of the housing stock. Taxing reluctant downsizers through high stamp duty is just silly, before we even get to using the tax system to nudge them into downsizing. Stamp duty of course also reduces liquidity of the housing stock generally, affecting labour mobility as above.
We may also wish to devolve a substantial component of income tax to a local level, to encourage a more satisfactory distribution of people geographically.
And then there’s planning reform. A contentious subject. But one move I’d make on day 1 as Emperor of the UK would be to ban the conversion of single storey dwellings to multiple storey dwellings. If we want to encourage downsizing, then older folk need somewhere to move to. And right now bungalows are often priced to assume upward conversion. It’s also ridiculous that planning officers will allow you to build a detached cinema room but expressly not an annexe. That changes on Day 1 of my rule too.
Why? The people who are interested in the area can afford less than they can 8 years ago (Brexit and Covid big factors). So the landlords who try to pass on their taxes end up with long voids.
Conversely if demand had increased but taxes decreased, landlords wouldn't pass on the tax cut and reduce rents, but increase rents to take advantage of what the renters can pay.
As Stuart says rent is set by what renters can afford (or LHA rents as a floor). A landlord would be a fool to go significantly above or below that level. Whilst such fools do exist, the market as a whole clears at that level.
That said, I’m not sure how much equity to mortgage there is at the moment. My anecdotal impression is that with the tightening of lending it’s higher than it was, but does anyone have the figures? Because that obviously has a major bearing on the effect of a house price adjustment.
My experience of local councils is that they are not very good at ‘doing the right thing.’ Certainly I would only hand over my property to the council if they bought it off me knowing what state they would leave it in.