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The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 11 in General
imageThe fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022 – politicalbetting.com

Chart from the University of Texas

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,222
    "What a piece of work is man!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    Second, like the Democrats in Texas
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355
    edited September 11
    Third, like ‘neither’ in that chart.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,739
    The other thing about Schwarzenegger is that he was, whatever you thought of his acting or his policies, an intelligent and serious politician. I don't get that impression with McConaughey at all.

    Though his immortal line in the excellent film Dazed and Confused, where he plays an adult sleaze:

    "That's what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older, they stay the same age"

    Will always raise a guilty smile.

  • Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
  • Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    That also is possible.
  • Foxy said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):

    CON: 37% (-6)
    LAB: 33% (+3)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    GRN: 8% (-1)
    RFM: 5% (+3)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    MRP Seat Forecast:

    CON: 311 (-75)
    LAB: 244 (+72)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436439050337017860?s=19

    Not a pollster that I have seen before, but BPC registered.

    Quite a swing since their May MRP.

    Stunning swing, but my first thought is: aren’t the Sunday Telegraph going to be furious? Broke the story 24 hours early. Isn’t there an embargo?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    edited September 11
    OT next year is HMQ's platinum jubilee, to be marked, as is traditional, by Emma Raducanu winning Wimbledon and SPotY.

    Her Majesty's racehorse, Reach for the Moon, is 10/1 second-favourite for the 2022 Derby, and runs this afternoon in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

    The reason I mention this is the mildly amusing prospect of the Derby being fought between the royal runner and Downing Street. The prorogation of Parliament redux. (Only mildly amusing!)

    The Derby will be one of the events in the so-called Central Weekend of the diamond jubilee:-
    https://www.royal.uk/platinum-jubilee-central-weekend
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
  • Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    edited September 11

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Could I recommend the fiddlers three?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120

    OT next year is HMQ's platinum jubilee, to be marked, as is traditional, by Emma Raducanu winning Wimbledon and SPotY.

    Her Majesty's racehorse, Reach for the Moon, is 10/1 second-favourite for the 2022 Derby, and runs this afternoon in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

    The reason I mention this is the mildly amusing prospect of the Derby being fought between the royal runner and Downing Street. The prorogation of Parliament redux. (Only mildly amusing!)

    The Derby will be one of the events in the so-called Central Weekend of the diamond jubilee:-
    https://www.royal.uk/platinum-jubilee-central-weekend

    The festivities, surely, make it extremely unlikely that there could be an election in May, June or July.
    Even if Johnson thought he could win big.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487
    An interesting evening thread. For a long time I thought HYUFD was a character you-know-who had invented as a bit of a joke. But these days I have to remind myself he is an elected representative for the Conservative Party.

    Quite extraordinary given his attitude. I know people don’t like the pile on but he’s as bad an advert for his party as the Momentum idiots for Labour. The reason why Momentum were so damaging for Corbyn was because we knew they were singing songs written by their leader. And the trouble for Johnson, is this feels the same.
  • Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Could I recommend the fiddlers three?
    Is that your draft obit?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    edited September 11
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Could I recommend the fiddlers three?
    I am waiting for someone to fiddle with my arthritic ankles! All scheduled to have happened by mid Oct.(NHS)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Good luck
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Could I recommend the fiddlers three?
    Although with aches and pains you might not want to dance.

    I’d stick to the pipe & bowl
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: pre-sprint race waffle:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2021/09/italy-pre-sprint-race-2021.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Nothing about the controversial Texas abortion law? At first glance that would help Abbott.

    Or not? Might it not fire up the opposition?

    And good morning one and all. Take it we're done with the self-obits of last night.
    Old King Cole is a merry old soul?
    Sadly, not particularly at time of writing. Aches, pains and the slings and arrows etc.

    But thanks for the thought.
    Could I recommend the fiddlers three?
    Although with aches and pains you might not want to dance.

    I’d stick to the pipe & bowl
    Bowl, yes. Although the cancellation of the Fifth Test, which I was looking forward to watching, hasn't added to the gaiety of the times!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Charles said:

    moonshine said:

    An interesting evening thread. For a long time I thought HYUFD was a character you-know-who had invented as a bit of a joke. But these days I have to remind myself he is an elected representative for the Conservative Party.

    Quite extraordinary given his attitude. I know people don’t like the pile on but he’s as bad an advert for his party as the Momentum idiots for Labour. The reason why Momentum were so damaging for Corbyn was because we knew they were singing songs written by their leader. And the trouble for Johnson, is this feels the same.

    The issue I have with @HYUFD (as a right of centre voter but not a member of the Tories) is twofold:

    - on a personal level he is infuriatingly stubborn. It’s a shame because he has interesting perspectives and data but he’s just dull to debate with
    - As a politician he’s dreadful. He’s more interested in chasing voters away. His reaction last night (I think to @MaxPB but it could have been @Philip_Thompson) was “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out”

    That’s not a good way to win an election…

    I say this an an observer of the political scene for many many years
    Agree, although I'm not a right-wing voter.
    And he doesn't appear to have a sense of humour.
  • OT next year is HMQ's platinum jubilee, to be marked, as is traditional, by Emma Raducanu winning Wimbledon and SPotY.

    Her Majesty's racehorse, Reach for the Moon, is 10/1 second-favourite for the 2022 Derby, and runs this afternoon in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

    The reason I mention this is the mildly amusing prospect of the Derby being fought between the royal runner and Downing Street. The prorogation of Parliament redux. (Only mildly amusing!)

    The Derby will be one of the events in the so-called Central Weekend of the diamond jubilee:-
    https://www.royal.uk/platinum-jubilee-central-weekend

    The festivities, surely, make it extremely unlikely that there could be an election in May, June or July.
    Even if Johnson thought he could win big.
    That is a very interesting point which, I must admit, had escaped me. It would certainly make it very difficult to hold an election next summer, although I suppose May is possible.
  • moonshine said:

    An interesting evening thread. For a long time I thought HYUFD was a character you-know-who had invented as a bit of a joke. But these days I have to remind myself he is an elected representative for the Conservative Party.

    Quite extraordinary given his attitude. I know people don’t like the pile on but he’s as bad an advert for his party as the Momentum idiots for Labour. The reason why Momentum were so damaging for Corbyn was because we knew they were singing songs written by their leader. And the trouble for Johnson, is this feels the same.

    Indeed. His attempt to deflect attention from the Prince Andrew underage rape case by shouting “Look, Squirrel!” is beneath contempt. It is clearly a coordinated strategy from the Tories. FUDHY, being dimmer than the average bear, unwisely shows far too much of the workings.

    Then there is his defence of Franco and advocacy of military intervention as a means of defeating political opponents.

    In fact, there are few areas of public life where his views are not repulsive. And yet, and yet… he is the truest representative of Clownism on this site. Is Johnson really as nasty and wicked as his strongest cheerleader?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    Shall we talk about Charles instead?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
  • IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    Aristocratic criticism = dignified, warranted and measured

    Plebeian criticism = ugly

    That’s us telt.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):

    CON: 37% (-6)
    LAB: 33% (+3)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    GRN: 8% (-1)
    RFM: 5% (+3)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    MRP Seat Forecast:

    CON: 311 (-75)
    LAB: 244 (+72)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436439050337017860?s=19

    Not a pollster that I have seen before, but BPC registered.

    Quite a swing since their May MRP.

    Stunning swing, but my first thought is: aren’t the Sunday Telegraph going to be furious? Broke the story 24 hours early. Isn’t there an embargo?
    It seems to be in Today's DT.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/09/10/exclusive-poll-conservative-red-wall-mps-lose-seats-boris-johnsons/

    I note Douglas's Ross loses his seat, FWIW.
  • Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    … and shortbread.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Then perhaps a better use of the last minute of the six minute window might have been to edit out your earlier post, which would only have taken a second, rather than type out another one telling others not to do what you had just done? ;)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    edited September 11
    deleted
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    Surely it depends on what is meant by development. In parts of Wales the idea appears popular, but ask them if they want second homes and the answer may well be different.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    Another thoughtful betting tip from @Quincel

    It really is quite hard to see the Republicans losing TX, though the abortion law could motivate Dem turnout.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487
    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Then perhaps a better use of the last minute of the six minute window might have been to edit out your earlier post, which would only have taken a second, rather than type out another one telling others not to do what you had just done? ;)
    Be fair Mr B2, That was a gentlemanly apology.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):

    CON: 37% (-6)
    LAB: 33% (+3)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    GRN: 8% (-1)
    RFM: 5% (+3)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    MRP Seat Forecast:

    CON: 311 (-75)
    LAB: 244 (+72)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 6-8 Sep.
    Changes w/ 13-15 May.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1436439050337017860?s=19

    Not a pollster that I have seen before, but BPC registered.

    Quite a swing since their May MRP.

    Stunning swing, but my first thought is: aren’t the Sunday Telegraph going to be furious? Broke the story 24 hours early. Isn’t there an embargo?
    It seems to be in Today's DT.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/09/10/exclusive-poll-conservative-red-wall-mps-lose-seats-boris-johnsons/

    I note Douglas's Ross loses his seat, FWIW.
    Someone should tell Wikipedia: they list it as a Sunday Telegraph poll.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Incidentally, Douglas Ross is (rather unpleasantly) surprising me on the upside. Fortunately, Anas Sarwar is more than compensating by gravely underperforming expectations.

    Very strange, as on paper Sarwar is by far the more experienced politician. But maybe working deep in the heart of Scottish football culture gives Ross a better understanding of Scots’ psychology than living off your dad’s wholesale empire.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Do tell!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,355
    edited September 11

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Then perhaps a better use of the last minute of the six minute window might have been to edit out your earlier post, which would only have taken a second, rather than type out another one telling others not to do what you had just done? ;)
    Be fair Mr B2, That was a gentlemanly apology.
    My improvement opportunity was meant to be constructive ;)

    Anyhow I cannot comment, having not witnessed much of last night’s discussion being an hour ahead. Cloudy this morning here, for the first time in ten days.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Then perhaps a better use of the last minute of the six minute window might have been to edit out your earlier post, which would only have taken a second, rather than type out another one telling others not to do what you had just done? ;)
    Hindsight is a wonderful thing
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Do tell!
    No that would not be fair. It’s not someone you’d get odds on right now either!
  • Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Since when was labelling someone as:

    1. stubborn
    2. repulsive

    … “meant to be constructive”?
  • Foxy said:

    Another thoughtful betting tip from @Quincel

    It really is quite hard to see the Republicans losing TX, though the abortion law could motivate Dem turnout.

    It might but on the other hand if much of the Democrat vote has religious objections, it might be disruptive. Given the short odds, I'm not inclined to give it too much thought at this stage.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    Guys let’s stop talking about @HYUFD

    It’s not very nice.

    Lol. You’ve just set out your thoughts in detail, even numbering the points.
    I know. It was meant to be constructive, but I suddenly realised that it could become a pile on.

    Not trying to exculpate myself
    Then perhaps a better use of the last minute of the six minute window might have been to edit out your earlier post, which would only have taken a second, rather than type out another one telling others not to do what you had just done? ;)
    Be fair Mr B2, That was a gentlemanly apology.
    My improvement opportunity was meant to be constructive ;)

    Anyhow I cannot comment, having not witnessed much of last night’s discussion being an hour ahead. Cloudy this morning here, for the first time in ten days.
    Cloudy here, too. Not cold though, and no rain is forecast,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    @StuartDickson

    That’s not an accurate reflection of what I said. But we should not continue this discussion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    I've posted before that the LD's in general and Ed D in particular are suffering from being the 4trh party in Parliament. Even in the dark days (for them) of the 50's and 60's the Lib leader was Leader of the Third Party and got called automatically. Nowadays that spot gets taken by Blackford.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,438
    Charles said:


    - As a politician he’s dreadful. He’s more interested in chasing voters away. His reaction last night (I think to @MaxPB but it could have been @Philip_Thompson) was “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out”

    That’s not a good way to win an election…

    If you're trying to win an election this isn't a good place to post, this site is much better if people are saying what they think instead of trying to calculate what would be the best way to get votes if the person temporarily claiming to be a floating voter was really a floating voter.
  • moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Help us out a bit. Which nation or region does this rising Lib Dem superstar come from. PB loves a long shot.
  • Charles said:

    @StuartDickson

    That’s not an accurate reflection of what I said. But we should not continue this discussion.

    You said:

    “- on a personal level he is infuriatingly stubborn. It’s a shame because he has interesting perspectives and data but he’s just dull to debate with
    - As a politician he’s dreadful. He’s more interested in chasing voters away. His reaction last night (I think to @MaxPB but it could have been @Philip_Thompson) was “good riddance and don’t let the door hit you on the way out””

    I summarised your assessment as:

    1. stubborn
    2. repulsive

    In what way is my summary inaccurate?

    I actually agree with you Charles, so I’m not sure why you’re trying to pick an argument.
  • Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,470

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Help us out a bit. Which nation or region does this rising Lib Dem superstar come from. PB loves a long shot.
    alan beith's not dead apparently. so theres that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    edited September 11
    @StuartDickson

    The term “repulsive” is usually used about someone personal characteristics. That is not what I said.

    I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’m embarrassed that I said something that, while meant constructively, appeared to risk triggering a rather unpleasant discussion about an individual poster. That’s not what this board should be about and hence I don’t want to prolong the discussion.

    Edit: or have the comments repeated.
  • Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Mind you, everyone has a long way to go before they catch up with Scottish Labour. How many leaders have they had since Donald Dewar died? I challenge even the biggest political nerds to get that number right without googling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    I have been back at work a week, and it is like a different world. The NHS is on its knees, and sinking further. The contrast between outside where people are ignoring covid and inside where covid is still causing chaos is chalk and cheese.

    While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
  • Charles said:

    @StuartDickson

    The term “repulsive” is usually used about someone personal characteristics. That is not what I said.

    I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’m embarrassed that I said something that, while meant constructively, appeared to risk triggering a rather unpleasant discussion about an individual poster. That’s not what this board should be about and hence I don’t want to prolong the discussion.

    Repelling otherwise sympathetic people from supporting one’s party can reasonably be summarised as ‘repulsive’. As in the RN vessel repulsed the pirates. Or, in The Clown and FUDHY’s case: the Tory Party repulsed the Scots.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Help us out a bit. Which nation or region does this rising Lib Dem superstar come from. PB loves a long shot.
    alan beith's not dead apparently. so theres that.
    I think moonshine was thinking of someone at least two generations younger than the overrated Beith.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,425
    Foxy said:

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
    Concerned by your report, but there is not much about the NHS in the media. I am curious as to why.
  • Charles said:

    @StuartDickson

    The term “repulsive” is usually used about someone personal characteristics. That is not what I said.

    I’m not trying to pick a fight. I’m embarrassed that I said something that, while meant constructively, appeared to risk triggering a rather unpleasant discussion about an individual poster. That’s not what this board should be about and hence I don’t want to prolong the discussion.

    Edit: or have the comments repeated.

    Can’t recall you ever rallying to my defence Charles when the twats gang up. But I look forward to that the next time SeanT leads the posse into town.

    Charles as Clint.

    I was close.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    I have been back at work a week, and it is like a different world. The NHS is on its knees, and sinking further. The contrast between outside where people are ignoring covid and inside where covid is still causing chaos is chalk and cheese.

    While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
    That doesn’t sound like a positive starting point for autumn. Meanwhile the CFO at my firm, not content with having eliminated all distancing measures in the office, is said to do little else right now but patrol the floors, keeping a daily tally of attendance rates in each department.

    A colleague this week raised doubts about returning amid high cases rates, as she cares for her 80 year old father. And was told, don’t worry the government has things in control. By the way can you cover for X this week? His father in law died of covid on Sunday.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    I have been back at work a week, and it is like a different world. The NHS is on its knees, and sinking further. The contrast between outside where people are ignoring covid and inside where covid is still causing chaos is chalk and cheese.

    While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
    That must be an awful working environment. The "Covid is over, deal with it" brigade are going to be apoplectic if/when restrictions are reimposed, and sadly your colleagues will get the brunt of it. As surely it will when the NHS sinks further - 'Boris has said he's fixed it and we trust Boris so it must be fixed so this must be your fault'.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,222
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    I have been back at work a week, and it is like a different world. The NHS is on its knees, and sinking further. The contrast between outside where people are ignoring covid and inside where covid is still causing chaos is chalk and cheese.

    While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
    Outa sight, outa mind, I'm afraid. Some of us would find it difficult to empathize our way out of a paper bag. Cheesy journalism feeds on that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 3,386

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    I have been back at work a week, and it is like a different world. The NHS is on its knees, and sinking further. The contrast between outside where people are ignoring covid and inside where covid is still causing chaos is chalk and cheese.

    While money may help the biggest problems in tackling the backlogs are staff shortages, skill shortages and physical capacity. I have serious doubts about whether it is fixable at all.
    That must be an awful working environment. The "Covid is over, deal with it" brigade are going to be apoplectic if/when restrictions are reimposed, and sadly your colleagues will get the brunt of it. As surely it will when the NHS sinks further - 'Boris has said he's fixed it and we trust Boris so it must be fixed so this must be your fault'.
    The state of the nhs and how it will cope over winter is a huge concern. I’m not sure what the answers are though. I find it hard to believe that restrictions short of a proper lockdown will have much impact on delta. You can’t magic up staff, short of importing them from other countries that presumably also need them, as Covid is everywhere.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 11

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    Davey was interesting on Any Questions this week. His first years were spent about a mile from where I now live.

    Getting out of touch on Green Issues though - his factoid was that UK causes 2% of global C02 emissions, whilst it is now about half that. He did some great stuff in that area an needs to catch up.

    Too much oppositionalism at the moment.
  • I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    I’m not sure I would have said that Texas is ‘historically’ Republican. Until the 1970s it was part of the Democratic Solid South. Then for 20 years it alternated blue and red. It’s only comparatively recently that it’s been so strongly Republican.

    On the salient point @Quincel is right, of course. It’s a state where the real competition is currently the Republican primary. That probably will change again, as it has in say, Georgia, but it will be interesting to see how and when.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347
    I think abortion has the potential to confound the prediction in the thread header. As far as I can tell from a brief google, political opinion on abortion is best described as, "Using the terms ‘pro-choice’ and ‘pro-life' is almost a party ID term"

    However, the biggest challenge for the Democrats, particularly in the mid-terms, has often been in driving turnout. This surely has to be an issue with the potential to boost Democrat turnout.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
    Concerned by your report, but there is not much about the NHS in the media. I am curious as to why.
    Story fatigue, I am afraid. Even the record numbers on waiting lists this week and Javid saying these would get worse before they get better made hardly any news impact.

    The bed and Emergency dept situation in my Trust is as bad as I have ever known. It was so backed up on Monday that ambulances couldn't unload for as long as 6 hours. Trolley waits in ED of over 24 hours are a regular thing.

    Covid is part of it, but the whole system has got gummed up and average length of stay has significantly grown, pushing capacity to the limit. Staff vacancies, and absence on sickness or maternity are at record highs. It is hard to discharge patients too as community support services seem parlous too.

    And no-one expects it to get better this side of Christmas. It is going to be a rather depressing grind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Possibly it would affect the supply.

    But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?

    I know which one I think it is…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 11
    Morning all.

    Mmmm - Texas betting. Anything I post today will be off-topic, except that ime Texas is where Cowboys and Lawyers come from, sometimes in the same individual.

    I see there was quite the property dustup yesterday, with Millionaire @MaxPB Guevara riding out with his portable guillotine. Great stuff :smile:
    Farooq said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    42% of Right to Buy properties are now rented out by private landlords.
    Many to the very Councils who sold them on the cheap.
    This is the economics of the madhouse.

    Some are part of insurance company's portfolio of investments
    Wait, how does that work? Housing isn't a very liquid asset, so what do insurance companies want with them?
    Yield.
    You mean taking profit from the rental income? So an alternative revenue stream to the whole insurance side of the business?
    Are insurers particularly likely to get into holding large rental portfolios for any logical reason related to insurance?
    It is a great thing that monolithic Council Estates have become a mixture of tenures, except maybe for blocks of flats. It is one trend to help remove the client vote, and de-corrupt politics. Properly, we don't want any housing at all run by the organisations that control build of it - too many conflicts of interest. Housing Associations - yes. Council housing - no.

    Any private landlord who lets a Council near a property is usually nuts. Where do they think the mad, bad, dangerous to know, or trash-the-house tenants may strangely end up? There are far too many horror stories to contemplate it.

    To Legal & General's credit, they are actually building stuff (about 5000 nearly-all-flats so far). To their lack of credit, they are only pitching for about the top quarter of the market - and not really addressing affordable renting, or only very slowly.

    I don't think insurance companies will ever compete with small private landlords locally, as they won't get the economies of scale and the returns are too low to support the corporate megastructure.

    Personally, I think that one reason Osborne decided to try and break the legs of the PRS was to let big corporates get a look in. As it is, L&G and similar are limiting themselves to estates with very high rents.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    This bit explains why the plan was dropped:

    "There was also relative support for development from younger voters, and from those living in London (particularly), Scotland, the North East and the East Midlands, those in areas with lower house prices, working-class voters, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters, and those who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

    There was relative opposition from Conservative voters (strongly), those living in the South and East of England, older voters, professionals, Leave voters and those living in higher house-price areas."

    It is the Tories that are the Nimbys. Come over to the dark side @Philip_Thompson, we have cookies*.

    * organic vegan ones of course.
    The Lib Dems would do well to manage their candidates list to ensure a suitable leader is an MP after the next election. I know just the person as it happens.

    I still expect a by the fingernails majority for the Tories at the next election. But the shine will truly be off by the election after. And the Lib Dems have to be in a position to give a proper alternative if Labour still haven’t sorted themselves out but then, or at least a suitable non-Nat counterweight to a coalition/minority Labour govt.
    Who do you have in mind?

    Personally, I rather like Ed Davey, and he was a very good minister. I also think that the LDs need some continuity, indeed should have stuck with Tim Farron after 2017. 4 leaders in 4 years is too much, even if politics accelerated between 2016 and now, with everyone bar SNP changing leaders constantly.
    Labour are going at the crap tax angle. LibDems going at the crap services angle. Davey has skin in the game - the LibDem social care act was binned by the Tories in 2015 and he personally is a carer.

    As it becomes blindingly obvious that the front line NHS cuts pre-covid are so much worse and not improving, this will gain traction. Ultimately the party backed a tax increase so attacking it seems silly. Attack that it is being spent on nothing. Glad I voted for Ed.
    Davey was interesting on Any Questions this week. His first years were spent about a mile from where I now live.

    Getting out of touch on Green Issues though - his factoid was that UK causes 2% of global C02 emissions, whilst it is now about half that. He did some great stuff in that area an needs to catch up.

    Too much oppositionalism at the moment.
    Davey is a good media performer, and is rarely caught out, speaks clearly and is usually very perceptive. Not loads of charisma, and being an overweight fifty-something white man in a suit doesn't make him stand out. I like him, but he is not going to set the world alight. (Perhaps not the best metaphor in an overheating world!)
  • eekeek Posts: 14,199

    I think abortion has the potential to confound the prediction in the thread header. As far as I can tell from a brief google, political opinion on abortion is best described as, "Using the terms ‘pro-choice’ and ‘pro-life' is almost a party ID term"

    However, the biggest challenge for the Democrats, particularly in the mid-terms, has often been in driving turnout. This surely has to be an issue with the potential to boost Democrat turnout.

    You also have a second issue with voter turnout for Democrats - the reason the texas democrats fled to Washington was to avoid a set of voter restrictions (carefully aimed at Democrat areas and new arrivals to the state).

    If any of those proposals became law the Democrats chance will be even lower
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487
    edited September 11
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
    Concerned by your report, but there is not much about the NHS in the media. I am curious as to why.
    Story fatigue, I am afraid. Even the record numbers on waiting lists this week and Javid saying these would get worse before they get better made hardly any news impact.

    The bed and Emergency dept situation in my Trust is as bad as I have ever known. It was so backed up on Monday that ambulances couldn't unload for as long as 6 hours. Trolley waits in ED of over 24 hours are a regular thing.

    Covid is part of it, but the whole system has got gummed up and average length of stay has significantly grown, pushing capacity to the limit. Staff vacancies, and absence on sickness or maternity are at record highs. It is hard to discharge patients too as community support services seem parlous too.

    And no-one expects it to get better this side of Christmas. It is going to be a rather depressing grind.
    Sarah Gilbert seems convinced boosters aren’t necessary. Israel’s message with Pfizer and a 3 week dosing strategy is that they are.

    One supposes that the greater number of the most vulnerable were vaxxed using Pfizer. My memory is that Azn came in slightly later for the 60s and below, with some 70s getting it too?

    It’s not clear how far Delta’s R can be shifted with standard masks and no night clubs. I wrote to my MP over a month ago on this. Not just preemptive boosters for the over 70s but also the distribution of FFP3 masks to vulnerable groups. “I will pass on your interesting proposal to the Health Sec”. Saj didn’t get the memo obviously.

    Will be interesting to see if the guidance to big employers changes again. I’m expecting it to by Halloween roughly.
  • I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    6 Premier League kick offs at 1500 today, not seen that for quite a while.

    Interesting relegation battle at Arsenal. If they cannot beat Norwich...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    We await details. If it is all landlords, even the one property 'amateurs', rather than just the big boys, then the extra % of tax will be passed on across the board in the end I strongly suspect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    BREAKING: Tennis fans - cancel your plans for tonight - Channel 4 is showing the @EmmaRaducanu US Open final live from 8pm. Pls share and spread the word.
    https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/1436597000800194560
  • I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    Great points about the business of being a landlord, that are simple, but often not known or understood, especially by landlords themselves. If they don't understand the basics of rent pricing, they are unlikely to be won over on more complicated tax arguments, or for that matter understand how AST notice periods or fair, wear and tear works. No wonder they get a bad name.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
    Concerned by your report, but there is not much about the NHS in the media. I am curious as to why.
    Story fatigue, I am afraid. Even the record numbers on waiting lists this week and Javid saying these would get worse before they get better made hardly any news impact.

    The bed and Emergency dept situation in my Trust is as bad as I have ever known. It was so backed up on Monday that ambulances couldn't unload for as long as 6 hours. Trolley waits in ED of over 24 hours are a regular thing.

    Covid is part of it, but the whole system has got gummed up and average length of stay has significantly grown, pushing capacity to the limit. Staff vacancies, and absence on sickness or maternity are at record highs. It is hard to discharge patients too as community support services seem parlous too.

    And no-one expects it to get better this side of Christmas. It is going to be a rather depressing grind.
    I don't understand why there are so many more emergency cases these days. Is it people who have clung on for months with odd chest or stomach pains and who have kept away from GPs who are now suddenly finding themselves so bad they need A&E?

    Or is A&E just full of mildly ill people who should be seeing a GP but can't or won't?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    There must be a non-negligible risk that going after landlords leads to a fall in house prices. Now, I would t have a problem with that, indeed, I’d welcome it. But the government most certainly wouldn’t.

    A few months ago, Tony Blair said that you must never say that you’d do something that you know you wouldn’t. I’m fairly sure Labour wouldn’t go after landlords as they’d know that a house price crash would be utterly catastrophic for a lot of people in this country, the economy, and public finances.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,327
    We've managed to steer clear of the anniversary topic. Just for today I am adopting the French revolutionary calendar: Quintidi, Fructidor 25 CCXXIX.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Have to check the detail on this (severity of illness etc) but a study has found teenage boys sixfold likelier to suffer heart problems leading to hospitalisation from vaccination than from COVID-19:
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1436032609033797632

    We know from Israel and America that post vaccine myocarditis is generally mild with a full recovery.

    Personally I am neutral on vaccinating the under 16s, and vaccine passports. Its not as if being vaccinated seems to reduce the chance of spreading it by more than 50%, so not adding much to herd immunity.
    Concerned by your report, but there is not much about the NHS in the media. I am curious as to why.
    Story fatigue, I am afraid. Even the record numbers on waiting lists this week and Javid saying these would get worse before they get better made hardly any news impact.

    The bed and Emergency dept situation in my Trust is as bad as I have ever known. It was so backed up on Monday that ambulances couldn't unload for as long as 6 hours. Trolley waits in ED of over 24 hours are a regular thing.

    Covid is part of it, but the whole system has got gummed up and average length of stay has significantly grown, pushing capacity to the limit. Staff vacancies, and absence on sickness or maternity are at record highs. It is hard to discharge patients too as community support services seem parlous too.

    And no-one expects it to get better this side of Christmas. It is going to be a rather depressing grind.
    Sarah Gilbert seems convinced boosters aren’t necessary. Israel’s message with Pfizer and a 3 week dosing strategy is that they are.

    One supposes that the greater number of the most vulnerable were vaxxed using Pfizer. My memory is that Azn came in slightly later for the 60s and below, with some 70s getting it too?

    It’s not clear how far Delta’s R can be shifted with standard masks and no night clubs. I wrote to my MP over a month ago on this. Not just preemptive boosters for the over 70s but also the distribution of FFP3 masks to vulnerable groups. “I will pass on your interesting proposal to the Health Sec”. Saj didn’t get the memo obviously.

    Will be interesting to see if the guidance to big employers changes again. I’m expecting it to by Halloween roughly.
    For FFP3 masks to be effective, they do need to be properly fitted, and fit-tested, though even a leaky mask is probably better than none.

    I shall be wearing mine at the footy, so if you look on MOTD it will be easy to spot me. Man City will be tough, but hope springs eternal, and Leicesters defensive injury crisis seems over, with Evans, Bertrand, Vestergard and Ricardo all back, albeit maybe not quite match fit yet.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    We shouldn't be calling one another "repulsive" just because someone's mannerisms repulse others.

    Repellent is a better word.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,327
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING: Tennis fans - cancel your plans for tonight - Channel 4 is showing the @EmmaRaducanu US Open final live from 8pm. Pls share and spread the word.
    https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/1436597000800194560

    If you value the quality of the commentators you might prefer Amazon Prime.
  • I think abortion has the potential to confound the prediction in the thread header. As far as I can tell from a brief google, political opinion on abortion is best described as, "Using the terms ‘pro-choice’ and ‘pro-life' is almost a party ID term"

    However, the biggest challenge for the Democrats, particularly in the mid-terms, has often been in driving turnout. This surely has to be an issue with the potential to boost Democrat turnout.

    Yes but it also has the potential to split the Democrat vote, if a significant part descends from a Roman Catholic heritage. But from my pov, the prices about either side winning do not tempt fuller analysis. I can get the same on a football match or US Open final this very day, without tying up money for months. (Of course, on the other hand, if I had done the analysis and felt sure of the outcome, then 2/5 might be tempting compared with bank interest rates.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 11
    ydoethur said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Possibly it would affect the supply.

    But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?

    I know which one I think it is…
    Good morning

    There are no good choices when it comes to increasing taxes and apart from CGT no other tax increase approval was lower than NI in the recent poll

    It has been said that rental companies should pay tax and NI and I checked it out this morning and apparently they do pay both

    It is without doubt true that if taxes rise on landlords the rent to the tenant will rise

    As an example a £1,200 tax increase would see the rent rise by a least £100 per month hitting already hard pressed tenants

    Rent controls could be considered but that just reduces supply and again increases demand and rents

    https://www.gov.uk/renting-out-a-property/paying-tax
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,487

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    Like with most forms of tax, the government / Treasury seem to approach property tax through the narrow lens of raising £s rather than behavioural incentives.

    We want to maximise labour mobility. So we should make it tax deductible to rent out one property if you live in a rented one.

    We want to ensure affordability, so that housing costs don’t impede standards of living / disposable incomes. One obvious measure is to tax to death (or in fact outright ban) property ownership by non resident foreigners. Another is to kill the rent seeking behaviour of multiple property ownership, whereby those with capital and access to leverage can cruise to a high wealth level through property inflation rather than endeavour.

    We want to ensure the efficient allocation of the housing stock. Taxing reluctant downsizers through high stamp duty is just silly, before we even get to using the tax system to nudge them into downsizing. Stamp duty of course also reduces liquidity of the housing stock generally, affecting labour mobility as above.

    We may also wish to devolve a substantial component of income tax to a local level, to encourage a more satisfactory distribution of people geographically.

    And then there’s planning reform. A contentious subject. But one move I’d make on day 1 as Emperor of the UK would be to ban the conversion of single storey dwellings to multiple storey dwellings. If we want to encourage downsizing, then older folk need somewhere to move to. And right now bungalows are often priced to assume upward conversion. It’s also ridiculous that planning officers will allow you to build a detached cinema room but expressly not an annexe. That changes on Day 1 of my rule too.

  • I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    We await details. If it is all landlords, even the one property 'amateurs', rather than just the big boys, then the extra % of tax will be passed on across the board in the end I strongly suspect.
    Nonsense. I started renting my place about 8 years ago, there have been several significant tax rises on landlords since then. My rent has gone up by 2% in total over those years. I could actually rent somewhere the same quality a bit cheaper (not enough to cover moving costs and inconvenience).

    Why? The people who are interested in the area can afford less than they can 8 years ago (Brexit and Covid big factors). So the landlords who try to pass on their taxes end up with long voids.

    Conversely if demand had increased but taxes decreased, landlords wouldn't pass on the tax cut and reduce rents, but increase rents to take advantage of what the renters can pay.

    As Stuart says rent is set by what renters can afford (or LHA rents as a floor). A landlord would be a fool to go significantly above or below that level. Whilst such fools do exist, the market as a whole clears at that level.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    tlg86 said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    There must be a non-negligible risk that going after landlords leads to a fall in house prices. Now, I would t have a problem with that, indeed, I’d welcome it. But the government most certainly wouldn’t.

    A few months ago, Tony Blair said that you must never say that you’d do something that you know you wouldn’t. I’m fairly sure Labour wouldn’t go after landlords as they’d know that a house price crash would be utterly catastrophic for a lot of people in this country, the economy, and public finances.
    Depends on how far and how fast they fall. If it’s 50% in 48 hours, agreed. If it’s 15% over two years, I think the negative consequences would probably be quite small.

    That said, I’m not sure how much equity to mortgage there is at the moment. My anecdotal impression is that with the tightening of lending it’s higher than it was, but does anyone have the figures? Because that obviously has a major bearing on the effect of a house price adjustment.
  • ydoethur said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Possibly it would affect the supply.

    But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?

    I know which one I think it is…
    But will you be able able to raise the amount from such a tax. The thing about NI and PAYE and VAT is that they are broad based and relatively simple and cheap to raise.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 524
    On the subject of landlords: I have this morning received a rather a rather alarming email from my local labour council, demanding that landlords 'do the right thing' and hand over their rental properties to the Council, as opposed to local private estate agents, so they can house the large number of vulnerable people waiting to be housed. It is not quite clear what deal they are offering, but there is mention of a 3 year deal, where the Council will take over the property and pay rent for it for that period, whilst looking after it for that period of time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    ydoethur said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Possibly it would affect the supply.

    But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?

    I know which one I think it is…
    But will you be able able to raise the amount from such a tax. The thing about NI and PAYE and VAT is that they are broad based and relatively simple and cheap to raise.
    Well, yes, but at the same time, just because something is easy doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do. This is clearly a rise that should have gone on income tax, for all sorts of reasons, even though that’s easier to avoid.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Seems unlikely.

    From the point of view of the property market, if landlords sell up, it will either be to other landlords or people buying houses to live in themselves. Short of blowing up the ex BTL homes or leaving them empty, the supply-demand balance won't change much. Most people don't want to rent a home, they'd rather buy and the key commodity is "somewhere to live" not "somewhere to rent". Not all, but most.

    Also, landlords don't set rents on the basis of 'costs+return'. (Evidence: we rented Casa Romford out while we were temporarily up north.) It's pure supply-demand and 'charge as much as you can get away with'. If costs go up, the landlord will probably have to suck it up.

    Which is probably fair enough. Buying a house and renting it out is a pretty good approximation to solid return for minimal effort. That's why we all find it attractive and frankly why it should be discouraged. Just imagine all that capital invested in making new stuff.

    Besides, the opposition are in Opposition. Their plans don't happen, and mostly that's awful for a politician. Swerving round the sharper edges of consequences is one of the few compensations.
    There must be a non-negligible risk that going after landlords leads to a fall in house prices. Now, I would t have a problem with that, indeed, I’d welcome it. But the government most certainly wouldn’t.

    A few months ago, Tony Blair said that you must never say that you’d do something that you know you wouldn’t. I’m fairly sure Labour wouldn’t go after landlords as they’d know that a house price crash would be utterly catastrophic for a lot of people in this country, the economy, and public finances.
    Depends on how far and how fast they fall. If it’s 50% in 48 hours, agreed. If it’s 15% over two years, I think the negative consequences would probably be quite small.

    That said, I’m not sure how much equity to mortgage there is at the moment. My anecdotal impression is that with the tightening of lending it’s higher than it was, but does anyone have the figures? Because that obviously has a major bearing on the effect of a house price adjustment.
    Actually, an overnight fall would be preferable. If prices fall steadily, then lenders won’t lend.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964

    ydoethur said:

    I see Kier Starmer has made the tough choice and said the £12 billion should have been raise from Landlords instead. Sigh, no that won't affect supply of private rental housing at all, or rents charged. But I suppose all that matters that a hard decision was avoided and bad people would pay more tax and lets not think beyond that. After it's not as if he would actually do that.

    Possibly it would affect the supply.

    But speaking as somebody who is both a landlord and in full time employment, do you think it is better for the economy as a whole if I am (a) incentivised to reduce the amount of work I do or (b) sell my rental property?

    I know which one I think it is…
    Good morning

    There are no good choices when it comes to increasing taxes and apart from CGT no other tax increase approval was lower than NI in the recent poll

    It has been said that rental companies should pay tax and NI and I checked it out this morning and apparently they do pay both

    It is without doubt true that if taxes rise on landlords the rent to the tenant will rise

    As an example a £1,200 tax increase would see the rent rise by a least £100 per month hitting already hard pressed tenants

    Rent controls could be considered but that just reduces supply and again increases demand and rents

    https://www.gov.uk/renting-out-a-property/paying-tax
    You don't pay NI on rental income if you are doing it via self assessment system which most BTL small guys will be. Don't know about "property companies".
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