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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls

The biggest in terms of volume of output is, of course, YouGov which carries out five surveys each week – four for the Sun and one for the Sunday Times. Sometimes these get reported at other times they don’t.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Nice idea. It should reduce our hyperventilating when something spikes for a day, and it genuinely should reduce the MOE.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Good idea. On the subject someone should maintain the Kalman Filter thing RodCrosby used to do. That was awesome.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Good idea. On the subject someone should maintain the Kalman Filter thing RodCrosby used to do. That was awesome.

    Bit early for all the ball-breaking effort it required. Maybe from January 2015, if the online engine re-appears. Last time I looked it was /404....

    Averages are fine for the time being.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OT, interesting to see Hague actually pushing back on some Eurosceptic stupid by saying it's stupid rather than the traditional strategy of pretending to agree with it and affecting to have a foolproof plan to implement it, just not quite yet.

    They were always going to have to draw a line sooner or later. They must be wishing they'd done it sooner so they weren't lumbered with all the stupid that they've already pretended to agree with.

    http://m.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c1d92086-7a13-11e3-8211-00144feabdc0.html
    Meanwhile, William Hague has poured cold water on an attempt by 95 Tory MPs to force the government to change the law and give Parliament the authority to veto new EU legislation.

    “If national parliaments all around the EU were regularly and unilaterally able to choose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn’t, the European single market wouldn’t work,” said the foreign secretary
  • Nice idea. It should reduce our hyperventilating when something spikes for a day, and it genuinely should reduce the MOE.

    With a caveat, of course, that the reduction in sampling error does nothing about any systematic bias - and all polls have those. Of course, a lower MOE is a Good Thing, but it's easy to fall into false comfort that since the sampling error is small, the poll must be "right".

    My guess is that folk will still hyperventilate when things spike for a day when the daily figure comes out, the calming reassurance of the weekly poll will only come round the next Monday.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Nice idea. It should reduce our hyperventilating when something spikes for a day, and it genuinely should reduce the MOE.

    With a caveat, of course, that the reduction in sampling error does nothing about any systematic bias - and all polls have those. Of course, a lower MOE is a Good Thing, but it's easy to fall into false comfort that since the sampling error is small, the poll must be "right".

    My guess is that folk will still hyperventilate when things spike for a day when the daily figure comes out, the calming reassurance of the weekly poll will only come round the next Monday.
    The main thing the YouGovs are good for is picking up trends quickly, and for that it doesn't matter too much if they're systematically biased, as long as they're consistently systematically biased.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Good idea. On the subject someone should maintain the Kalman Filter thing RodCrosby used to do. That was awesome.

    Bit early for all the ball-breaking effort it required. Maybe from January 2015, if the online engine re-appears. Last time I looked it was /404....

    Averages are fine for the time being.
    Probably is very little work in R. You can use it online without installation and there are plenty of free resources for learning it.

  • The main thing the YouGovs are good for is picking up trends quickly, and for that it doesn't matter too much if they're systematically biased, as long as they're consistently systematically biased.

    This is true. But it's the fact that people use YG for trend-spotting which means people will always get excited about the latest outlier...

    Not that I'm knocking OGH's plan, I think it's a good one. Perhaps more so that the old PAPA "poll of polls" (was AndyJS resurrecting that one?) since the YGs it's averaging are more regular and comparable.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Two days ago was Arthur Scargill's 76th birthday. I call him Aarthur Scaargvark.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    What, no messages in an hour and a half?
    Free the Thailand One!
    Bring back SeanT!
    Overthrow the oppressive tyranny of Old Grumpy Head!

    Anyway, it's odd how the results of mid-term opinion polls (of how people say they would vote in a general election "tomorrow") are always different from the eventual result. It's almost as if a significant minority of people are giving an answer to a different question from the one they are actually asked. A bit like the 2011 referendum, in which a lot of people thought that the question was "Do you like Nick Clegg?".

    The difference between mid-term opinion polls and actual general election results is a measure of the thickness of the peasants and the dimness of the proles.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Didn't someone post a list showing yougov's been consistently out of line with Ukip's actual results on most occasions? Can their numbers be taken seriously until they figure it out.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MrJones said:

    Didn't someone post a list showing yougov's been consistently out of line with Ukip's actual results on most occasions? Can their numbers be taken seriously until they figure it out.

    That would be interesting to see, but you have to be careful to compare the right polling. For example, a lot of pollsters decline to prompt for them to simulate the typical general election squeeze / irrelevance. This may or may not be the right thing to do for general elections, but it's obviously the wrong thing to do for the Euros etc.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    MrJones said:

    Didn't someone post a list showing yougov's been consistently out of line with Ukip's actual results on most occasions? Can their numbers be taken seriously until they figure it out.

    Even if the figures themselves are out of line with actual results (eg yougov = 12 while UKIP average 19) that does not necessarily invalidate their use for evaluating a trend line. I would imagine that if methodology remains consistent poll to poll then the trend line will be approximately the same from pollster to pollster

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    ZenPagan said:

    MrJones said:

    Didn't someone post a list showing yougov's been consistently out of line with Ukip's actual results on most occasions? Can their numbers be taken seriously until they figure it out.

    Even if the figures themselves are out of line with actual results (eg yougov = 12 while UKIP average 19) that does not necessarily invalidate their use for evaluating a trend line. I would imagine that if methodology remains consistent poll to poll then the trend line will be approximately the same from pollster to pollster

    That might depend on why the figures are out of line though. If national trends are breaking down into more localized ones then the overall polling might be out of whack.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    see that England women won the test match by 61 runs against the Aussies.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Late cleaning of the Augean stables by Labour, but no apology for the tens of thousands of young lives ruined.

    "Labour created a culture of low expectations for state school pupils, Tristram Hunt, the shadow education secretary has admitted.
    He said it was a ‘great crime’ that the last government had failed to pushed children more than simply aim for them to achieve a C grade at GCSE level.
    He also admitted that exams had been dumbed down in recent years, saying ‘yes, there are elements of grade inflation’.
    Labour now wants to introduce licences for teachers, stripping them of their right to be in the classroom if they fail assessments carried out every five years.
    In a startlingly frank admission, Mr Hunt said: ‘The great crime was an awful lot of effort being put on kids getting a C at GCSE, then not going further. There should be no limits - the system should be saying how far can this child go?’
    Schools were too focused on the pass grade, ‘C’, because of its significance in league tables.
    He said that education should not just be about exam results.
    ‘What do people who send their children to private school want? It’s not just smaller class sizes. It’s the playing fields and the after-school stuff like music and drama because they help to build confidence and character.’
    He told the Times: ‘We need to work out how we can generate all those elements for everyone within a broad education and value them alongside academic rigour.’
    Labour would not shut surviving grammar schools but Mr Hunt said their social mix should be questioned.
    ‘If they are simply about merit why do we see the kind of demographics and class make-up within them?’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2538260/Labour-admits-great-crime-education-Tristram-Hunt-says-previous-Government-failed-push-children-excel-dumbed-exams.html#ixzz2qFVrcXrK

  • The ecver-sagacious EiT reports:

    “If national parliaments all around the EU were regularly and unilaterally able to choose which bits of EU law they would apply and which bits they wouldn’t, the European single market wouldn’t work,” said William Hague

    Memo to Bald Billy: the Tory backbenches have no desire whatsoever for that to happen. They want the English to have a privileged position because we're English. Haven't you got a clue what's driving UKIP in the polls?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2014

    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/

    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    170. We conclude that there should be a mechanism whereby the House of Commons can decide that a particular EU legislative proposal should not apply to the United Kingdom. The House's view could only be expressed prior to the adoption of the measure at EU level: but if such a motion was passed the UK Government would be expected to express opposition to the proposal in the strongest possible terms, including voting against it.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeuleg/109/10908.htm#a30

    This looks like a way for parliament to bind the way British ministers vote at the Council of Ministers, not a proposal to allow individual countries (via their parliaments) to randomly veto stuff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020

    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/

    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    170. We conclude that there should be a mechanism whereby the House of Commons can decide that a particular EU legislative proposal should not apply to the United Kingdom. The House's view could only be expressed prior to the adoption of the measure at EU level: but if such a motion was passed the UK Government would be expected to express opposition to the proposal in the strongest possible terms, including voting against it.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeuleg/109/10908.htm#a30

    This looks like a way for parliament to bind the way British ministers vote at the Council of Ministers, not a proposal to allow individual countries (via their parliaments) to randomly veto stuff.

    In other words the all party committee are simply advocating that Parliament, rather than the government of the day, has at least a bigger say in how the UK votes are cast. There is much to be said for this although it is foolish to ignore the trading reality of votes in the EU where quid pro quo is very much the name of the game. The risk is that Parliament stops the UK ministers from playing that game effectively.

    If those behind the latest proposal cannot see the difference between that and Parliament reasserting sovereignty by determining what EU legislation applies to the UK I really despair. They are either beyond stupid or just seriously dishonest.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    DavidL said:

    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/

    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    170. We conclude that there should be a mechanism whereby the House of Commons can decide that a particular EU legislative proposal should not apply to the United Kingdom. The House's view could only be expressed prior to the adoption of the measure at EU level: but if such a motion was passed the UK Government would be expected to express opposition to the proposal in the strongest possible terms, including voting against it.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeuleg/109/10908.htm#a30

    This looks like a way for parliament to bind the way British ministers vote at the Council of Ministers, not a proposal to allow individual countries (via their parliaments) to randomly veto stuff.
    In other words the all party committee are simply advocating that Parliament, rather than the government of the day, has at least a bigger say in how the UK votes are cast. There is much to be said for this although it is foolish to ignore the trading reality of votes in the EU where quid pro quo is very much the name of the game. The risk is that Parliament stops the UK ministers from playing that game effectively.

    If those behind the latest proposal cannot see the difference between that and Parliament reasserting sovereignty by determining what EU legislation applies to the UK I really despair. They are either beyond stupid or just seriously dishonest.


    TBF the report is a little bit strangely phrased. Maybe they made it deliberately ambiguous so all the parties could sign off on it.

    That said, I assume Carswell knows this and is playing games.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    DavidL said:

    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/

    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    170. We conclude that there should be a mechanism whereby the House of Commons can decide that a particular EU legislative proposal should not apply to the United Kingdom. The House's view could only be expressed prior to the adoption of the measure at EU level: but if such a motion was passed the UK Government would be expected to express opposition to the proposal in the strongest possible terms, including voting against it.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeuleg/109/10908.htm#a30

    This looks like a way for parliament to bind the way British ministers vote at the Council of Ministers, not a proposal to allow individual countries (via their parliaments) to randomly veto stuff.
    In other words the all party committee are simply advocating that Parliament, rather than the government of the day, has at least a bigger say in how the UK votes are cast. There is much to be said for this although it is foolish to ignore the trading reality of votes in the EU where quid pro quo is very much the name of the game. The risk is that Parliament stops the UK ministers from playing that game effectively.

    If those behind the latest proposal cannot see the difference between that and Parliament reasserting sovereignty by determining what EU legislation applies to the UK I really despair. They are either beyond stupid or just seriously dishonest.


    It is a little bit like suggesting that parliament should have a line by line veto of any treaty the government agrees too, when it must either be straight-up or straight-down.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I guess the point of the backbenchers' play is the thinly-veiled threat at the end of the Carswell piece:
    But if they cannot spell out in detail what their new deal might look like, others will do it for them.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/
    It's the classic move to make when your opponent is trying to fob you off by being vague about what they're going to do after the election. Fill in the blanks for them with concrete proposals, and force them to deny them. The twist is that in this case the backbenchers' opponents are their own leadership...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    @Innocent_Abroad
    Not just Tory backbenchers

    "all that these hundred or so MPs have done (I should add I am one of them) is pick up and endorse the unanimous conclusion of the all-party Commons European Scrutiny Committee."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/

    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    170. We conclude that there should be a mechanism whereby the House of Commons can decide that a particular EU legislative proposal should not apply to the United Kingdom. The House's view could only be expressed prior to the adoption of the measure at EU level: but if such a motion was passed the UK Government would be expected to express opposition to the proposal in the strongest possible terms, including voting against it.
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmeuleg/109/10908.htm#a30

    This looks like a way for parliament to bind the way British ministers vote at the Council of Ministers, not a proposal to allow individual countries (via their parliaments) to randomly veto stuff.
    In other words the all party committee are simply advocating that Parliament, rather than the government of the day, has at least a bigger say in how the UK votes are cast. There is much to be said for this although it is foolish to ignore the trading reality of votes in the EU where quid pro quo is very much the name of the game. The risk is that Parliament stops the UK ministers from playing that game effectively.

    If those behind the latest proposal cannot see the difference between that and Parliament reasserting sovereignty by determining what EU legislation applies to the UK I really despair. They are either beyond stupid or just seriously dishonest.
    It is a little bit like suggesting that parliament should have a line by line veto of any treaty the government agrees too, when it must either be straight-up or straight-down.



    Agreed. OTOH I personally would like to go down this line. The fantasy that the European Parliament gives any kind of democratic legitimacy to EU legislation is one almost no one in Europe believes, hence the appalling turnouts. There is much to be said for its alleged role to be taken over by a body representing Parliaments around the EU. I would give up on the direct elections and have a body made up by representatives of the Parliaments in a similar way to some of the Social bodies that existed in the early days of the EEC.



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.

    True. However you also get the choice of leaving a club who's rules you don't and joining another.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    DavidL said:



    Agreed. OTOH I personally would like to go down this line. The fantasy that the European Parliament gives any kind of democratic legitimacy to EU legislation is one almost no one in Europe believes, hence the appalling turnouts. There is much to be said for its alleged role to be taken over by a body representing Parliaments around the EU. I would give up on the direct elections and have a body made up by representatives of the Parliaments in a similar way to some of the Social bodies that existed in the early days of the EEC.



    I don't think it works in practice. The Commons says no, the Council get together and revise the proposal to accomodate the Commons, the revised proposal gets vetoed by the Estonian Riigikogu, tweak it and now the Croations are miffed, etc etc. At some point you need to just get everybody in a room and make a decision.

    This is why the EU has a parliament. Turnout will get better as it becomes more influential and more politically polarised.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.

    True. However you also get the choice of leaving a club who's rules you don't and joining another.
    Not only that; the rules keep changing on the whim of an unelected committee.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    OKC,

    I think many people who complain about the EU thought they'd joined a football club and now find they have to play darts.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MikeK said:

    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.

    True. However you also get the choice of leaving a club who's rules you don't and joining another.
    Not only that; the rules keep changing on the whim of an unelected committee.
    The rules of the EU don't change at anybody's whim, they change via a byzantine, laborious process taking a decade or more each time and involving dozens of elected bodies all of which have vetoes.
  • In my area, the European parliament has been very influential and has vetoed/blocked/extensively revised legislation that had been proposed by the Commission and agreed by the member states. It is interesting how individual MEPs are much less "whipped" than MPs are in the Commons - especially as they are generally elected on a party list rather than as individuals.
  • I guess the point of the backbenchers' play is the thinly-veiled threat at the end of the Carswell piece:

    But if they cannot spell out in detail what their new deal might look like, others will do it for them.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/
    It's the classic move to make when your opponent is trying to fob you off by being vague about what they're going to do after the election. Fill in the blanks for them with concrete proposals, and force them to deny them. The twist is that in this case the backbenchers' opponents are their own leadership...

    The pre-cursor to defections?
  • DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    A lot of voters may be looking at the "tough choices" Osborne is talking about and wondering what tough choices the core Tory vote and the party's funders are facing. All the ones being mooted seem to affect the working age poor and the young, neither of whom as a demographic are known for their support of the Conservative party. I thought Nick Cohen captured this rather well yesterday:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/12/george-osborne-cuts-young-poor

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    In my area, the European parliament has been very influential and has vetoed/blocked/extensively revised legislation that had been proposed by the Commission and agreed by the member states. It is interesting how individual MEPs are much less "whipped" than MPs are in the Commons - especially as they are generally elected on a party list rather than as individuals.

    Sent you a mail.
  • In my area, the European parliament has been very influential and has vetoed/blocked/extensively revised legislation that had been proposed by the Commission and agreed by the member states. It is interesting how individual MEPs are much less "whipped" than MPs are in the Commons - especially as they are generally elected on a party list rather than as individuals.

    Sent you a mail.

    It's not turned up yet - the suspense is killing me!

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

  • DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.

    True. However you also get the choice of leaving a club who's rules you don't and joining another.
    Not only that; the rules keep changing on the whim of an unelected committee.
    The rules of the EU don't change at anybody's whim, they change via a byzantine, laborious process taking a decade or more each time and involving dozens of elected bodies all of which have vetoes.
    You tell that to Barroso and co.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    You would think that Tory MP's, who traditionally have been members of clubs of various sorts, would realise that when you join a club you can't pick and choose which rules to observe.

    True. However you also get the choice of leaving a club who's rules you don't and joining another.
    Not only that; the rules keep changing on the whim of an unelected committee.
    The rules of the EU don't change at anybody's whim, they change via a byzantine, laborious process taking a decade or more each time and involving dozens of elected bodies all of which have vetoes.
    You tell that to Barroso and co.
    He already knows.
  • DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    Indeed. Labour are facing a horror story in 2015. They are going to win and find themsleves governing again.
  • JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    It is a simple way of ironing out outliers from a hyperactive pollster.

    It should reduce somewhat the unfortunate tendency for some of our more cock-eyed colleagues to squeal about swingback and crossover when one poll shows a 4pt Labour lead only for it to revert to 8pts the next day and be greeted by silence. This happened many times last year. Comfort blanket polls are dangerous.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    edited January 2014
    DavidL said:



    What the all-party committee advocated seems to be different from what the Tory backbenchers are advocating, unless the latter has been misreported.
    ...

    In other words the all party committee are simply advocating that Parliament, rather than the government of the day, has at least a bigger say in how the UK votes are cast. There is much to be said for this although it is foolish to ignore the trading reality of votes in the EU where quid pro quo is very much the name of the game. The risk is that Parliament stops the UK ministers from playing that game effectively.

    If those behind the latest proposal cannot see the difference between that and Parliament reasserting sovereignty by determining what EU legislation applies to the UK I really despair. They are either beyond stupid or just seriously dishonest.

    ... The fantasy that the European Parliament gives any kind of democratic legitimacy to EU legislation is one almost no one in Europe believes, hence the appalling turnouts. There is much to be said for its alleged role to be taken over by a body representing Parliaments around the EU. I would give up on the direct elections and have a body made up by representatives of the Parliaments in a similar way to some of the Social bodies that existed in the early days of the EEC.

    Yes. What the Euro Select Committee were advocating is already Danish policy - the Danish government (which is always a slightly uneasy coalition) has to get its negotiating brief agreed in advance by the Parliamentary committee. If they want to do a deal, they are supposed to go back and ask them. Danish ministers find it awkward because it inhibits the ability to compromise, but it sort of works as Danish MPs are generally inclined to be cooperative with EU initiatives, so the mandate is usually not that difficult.

    The backbench idea is for random opt-outs, which is fundamentally incompatible with any Treaty.

    On the Parliament, I'm against indirect democracy - people completely lose track of who is representing them, whereas even with the EP they vaguely know how to find out. After all, council elections often have even lower turnout. Would you abolish local councils?


  • Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.
  • Patrick said:

    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    Indeed. Labour are facing a horror story in 2015. They are going to win and find themsleves governing again.
    I am inclined to agree Patrick.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    It has been mentioned on here a lot of times but is worth repeating.

    We are in a very unusual electoral situation. This is the first time in decades that we have had a full term coalition government. Dissatisfaction with the ruling parties means that the protest can go to only one major party and a plethora of minors (UKIP included). As the GE campaign starts in earnest (after the Euros and irrelevance of the Scottish plebiscite), I think we will see a re-establishment of traditional party support. This is where any benefits of the improving economy will start to show in VI figures.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Unfortunately averaging 5 polls will only improve the MOE by a factor of sqrt(5) = approx 2.24.
  • JohnLoony said:

    What, no messages in an hour and a half?
    Free the Thailand One!
    Bring back SeanT!
    Overthrow the oppressive tyranny of Old Grumpy Head!

    Anyway, it's odd how the results of mid-term opinion polls (of how people say they would vote in a general election "tomorrow") are always different from the eventual result. It's almost as if a significant minority of people are giving an answer to a different question from the one they are actually asked. A bit like the 2011 referendum, in which a lot of people thought that the question was "Do you like Nick Clegg?".

    The difference between mid-term opinion polls and actual general election results is a measure of the thickness of the peasants and the dimness of the proles.

    This is not "midterm". We are now almost exactly three-quarters of the way through this parliament, so late term by any sensible measure. Wake up and eat your sausages.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    DavidL said:

    This [YouGov] also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    I'm probably one of the few here doing substantial amounts of canvassing at the moment (10 hours a week or so), though I'm obviously partial and can't judge how "nah, sorry, goodbye" voters are going to vote (Tory? UKIP? Abstain?). It's all anecdotal but compared with previous Parliaments and the same people in previous canvasses there are rather few don't knows - people seem quite polarised and settled. I do feel fairly hopeful at the moment.

    There will be a quirky town council two-seat by-election later this month. Labour isn't putting up a candidate at all, preferring to endorse the independent who I've known for many years - an approach I've used in other areas before (at town/parish level I'm not convinced candidates should be party representatives at all). The other candidates are Tories and LibDems so we'll get some measure of how they're doing.




  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    JohnLoony said:

    What, no messages in an hour and a half?
    Free the Thailand One!
    Bring back SeanT!
    Overthrow the oppressive tyranny of Old Grumpy Head!

    Anyway, it's odd how the results of mid-term opinion polls (of how people say they would vote in a general election "tomorrow") are always different from the eventual result. It's almost as if a significant minority of people are giving an answer to a different question from the one they are actually asked. A bit like the 2011 referendum, in which a lot of people thought that the question was "Do you like Nick Clegg?".

    The difference between mid-term opinion polls and actual general election results is a measure of the thickness of the peasants and the dimness of the proles.

    This is not "midterm". We are now almost exactly three-quarters of the way through this parliament, so late term by any sensible measure. Wake up and eat your sausages.
    And yet someone on here defined the top and tail of a parliament as the first and the last year.
    That also seems like a "sensible measure".
    Each to their own.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    It is a simple way of ironing out outliers from a hyperactive pollster.

    It should reduce somewhat the unfortunate tendency for some of our more cock-eyed colleagues to squeal about swingback and crossover when one poll shows a 4pt Labour lead only for it to revert to 8pts the next day and be greeted by silence. This happened many times last year. Comfort blanket polls are dangerous.

    Quite so.

    I'm not against averaging of polls as an additional tool in the punters armoury. Indeed prior to the 2005 GE yours truly published an average of polls, twas the genesis of ARSE, much to the chagrin of OGH who was a non believer in those heady days of the infancy of PB.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Was funny listening to Hague squirm on the radio. He couldn't bring himself to disagree with Clarke's comment that "I just don’t think it’s true that the European Union is responsible for unacceptable waves of migration”. Another few votes for Ukip.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2014

    DavidL said:



    Agreed. OTOH I personally would like to go down this line. The fantasy that the European Parliament gives any kind of democratic legitimacy to EU legislation is one almost no one in Europe believes, hence the appalling turnouts. There is much to be said for its alleged role to be taken over by a body representing Parliaments around the EU. I would give up on the direct elections and have a body made up by representatives of the Parliaments in a similar way to some of the Social bodies that existed in the early days of the EEC.



    I don't think it works in practice. The Commons says no, the Council get together and revise the proposal to accomodate the Commons, the revised proposal gets vetoed by the Estonian Riigikogu, tweak it and now the Croations are miffed, etc etc. At some point you need to just get everybody in a room and make a decision.

    This is why the EU has a parliament. Turnout will get better as it becomes more influential and more politically polarised.
    The idea that the European parliament is the equivalent to getting all the different countries in one room to make a decision is ridiculous. See English MEP Andrew "If the English can be defeated" Duff. The members of this assembly serve the EU and it's efforts to grab more power, not the nation states.

    You are right that as it becomes more influential turnout will go up: a lot more people in this country will be be heading to the polls so they can vote for UKIP...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    DavidL said:

    This [YouGov] also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.


    There will be a quirky town council two-seat by-election later this month. Labour isn't putting up a candidate at all, preferring to endorse the independent who I've known for many years - an approach I've used in other areas before (at town/parish level I'm not convinced candidates should be party representatives at all). The other candidates are Tories and LibDems so we'll get some measure of how they're doing.




    Nice bit of spin to explain why Labour are not putting up any candidates for a 2 seat contest when one of the 2 seats being defended is a Labour seat and the other a Lib Dem . All those Lib Dems who you are sure will vote for you in 2015 will just have to carry on voting as they have been since 2010 for the Lib Dems . .
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    I really hope interviewers take the chance to ask all politicians if they find immigration as exciting as Ken does. I'm sure they could get some hilarious quotes.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    DavidL said:

    This [YouGov] also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.


    There will be a quirky town council two-seat by-election later this month. Labour isn't putting up a candidate at all, preferring to endorse the independent who I've known for many years - an approach I've used in other areas before (at town/parish level I'm not convinced candidates should be party representatives at all). The other candidates are Tories and LibDems so we'll get some measure of how they're doing.




    Nice bit of spin to explain why Labour are not putting up any candidates for a 2 seat contest when one of the 2 seats being defended is a Labour seat and the other a Lib Dem . All those Lib Dems who you are sure will vote for you in 2015 will just have to carry on voting as they have been since 2010 for the Lib Dems . .
    Stapleford North ward results 2011 ( 6 seats ) Lib Dem 693/594/529/511/507/494 Labour 604/519/503/387 Ind 340 Con 258/254/252/241/234/231 elected 4 Lib Dem " Labour
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Socrates said:

    DavidL said:



    Agreed. OTOH I personally would like to go down this line. The fantasy that the European Parliament gives any kind of democratic legitimacy to EU legislation is one almost no one in Europe believes, hence the appalling turnouts. There is much to be said for its alleged role to be taken over by a body representing Parliaments around the EU. I would give up on the direct elections and have a body made up by representatives of the Parliaments in a similar way to some of the Social bodies that existed in the early days of the EEC.



    I don't think it works in practice. The Commons says no, the Council get together and revise the proposal to accomodate the Commons, the revised proposal gets vetoed by the Estonian Riigikogu, tweak it and now the Croations are miffed, etc etc. At some point you need to just get everybody in a room and make a decision.

    This is why the EU has a parliament. Turnout will get better as it becomes more influential and more politically polarised.
    The idea that the European parliament is the equivalent to getting all the different countries in one room to make a decision is ridiculous. See English MEP Andrew "If the English can be defeated" Duff. The members of this assembly serve the EU and it's efforts to grab more power, not the nation states.

    You are right that as it becomes more influential turnout will go up: a lot more people in this country will be be heading to the polls so they can vote for UKIP...
    Who said it was equivalent to getting all the countries in a room? You can't get all the countries in a room, not least for logistical reasons. Or maybe you could, but it would have to be an exceedingly large room. The countries are represented by their ministers, on the Council of Ministers.

    The issue here is that as well as the individuals representing the countries, it's useful to have direct parliamentary involvement in legislation. This helps make sure the concerns of individual constituencies aren't overlooked - both geographical ones (say coal mining areas in Wales) and functional ones (say free software developers who have an interest in copyright issues). The question is then whether they should be national parliaments or a single European parliament. I'm saying the latter is better, because:
    1) All the parliamentarians are in one place which makes for better communication.
    2) As Nick Palmer says you have less indirection, so it's easier to tell who to vote out if they don't represent you the way you want.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    It is a simple way of ironing out outliers from a hyperactive pollster.

    It should reduce somewhat the unfortunate tendency for some of our more cock-eyed colleagues to squeal about swingback and crossover when one poll shows a 4pt Labour lead only for it to revert to 8pts the next day and be greeted by silence. This happened many times last year. Comfort blanket polls are dangerous.

    Quite so.

    I'm not against averaging of polls as an additional tool in the punters armoury. Indeed prior to the 2005 GE yours truly published an average of polls, twas the genesis of ARSE, much to the chagrin of OGH who was a non believer in those heady days of the infancy of PB.



    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Boris continuing his "being rude" theme

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10567425/Trust-the-people-to-decide-on-Europe-Whatever-next.html

    "It is quite obvious that Labour is not going to give the public a vote on Europe. Miliband has plainly made up what passes for his mind."
  • GeoffM said:

    JohnLoony said:

    What, no messages in an hour and a half?
    Free the Thailand One!
    Bring back SeanT!
    Overthrow the oppressive tyranny of Old Grumpy Head!

    Anyway, it's odd how the results of mid-term opinion polls (of how people say they would vote in a general election "tomorrow") are always different from the eventual result. It's almost as if a significant minority of people are giving an answer to a different question from the one they are actually asked. A bit like the 2011 referendum, in which a lot of people thought that the question was "Do you like Nick Clegg?".

    The difference between mid-term opinion polls and actual general election results is a measure of the thickness of the peasants and the dimness of the proles.

    This is not "midterm". We are now almost exactly three-quarters of the way through this parliament, so late term by any sensible measure. Wake up and eat your sausages.
    And yet someone on here defined the top and tail of a parliament as the first and the last year.
    That also seems like a "sensible measure".
    Each to their own.

    I will quote that famous lefty John Lennon and say to such people "whatever gets you through the night".

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2014


    1) All the parliamentarians are in one place which makes for better communication.
    2) As Nick Palmer says you have less indirection, so it's easier to tell who to vote out if they don't represent you the way you want.

    On point 1, there isn't that much communication, as MEPs are limited to two minute speeches, which seems designed to prevent proper scrutiny.

    On point 2, firstly, we'd have to have a lot better coverage of European parliament procedures for it to be easier to tell. Realistically, this isn't going to happen, as European media is national-based. That's why national parliaments make more sense.

    Secondly, even if you can tell who to vote out, it's pretty impossible to do that because of the party list PR system. The chronically terrible Andrew Duff has dragged the Lib Dems as low as 11% of the vote before now, but still gets in because party elites put him first on the list.
  • Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise higher than prices.

  • Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise faster than prices.

    Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise higher than prices.

    Wages that rise faster than prices.
  • Wages that rise faster than prices.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise higher than prices.

    Gross or take home ?

    Before or after non discretionary spending ?

    or just pick a definition that suits a narrative ?
  • @MarkSenior

    I would not worry about the Liberals. They will be propped up in battles with the Conservatives by Labour supporters. Their vote will only collapse in seats they cannot win.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @JackW Pay attention please

    Normal poll averaging involves taking the latest numbers from all the pollsters.

    What I am doing here is to take the numbers produced in a six day period from one pollster using the same methodlogy.

    I also want to create a good reference point for YouGov. They do so many polls it is hard to determine what YouGov was showing at a particular time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Socrates said:


    2) As Nick Palmer says you have less indirection, so it's easier to tell who to vote out if they don't represent you the way you want.

    Firstly, we'd have to have a lot better coverage of European parliament procedures for it to be easier to tell. Realistically, this isn't going to happen, as European media is national-based. That's why national parliaments make more sense.

    Secondly, even if you can tell who to vote out, it's pretty impossible to do that because of the party list PR system. The chronically terrible Andrew Duff has dragged the Lib Dems as low as 11% of the vote before now, but still gets in because party elites put him first on the list.
    The media will catch up. Or if they don't we'll work around it. I follow a bunch of issues that the EU parliament has a lot of influence on like IP law, and I have plenty of EU stuff in my stream.

    If you don't like the closed list system you should be complaining to the British government, it's their call. Either way you have more chance of getting rid of Andrew Duff than you would have of shifting a British MP in a safe seat.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    It is a simple way of ironing out outliers from a hyperactive pollster.

    It should reduce somewhat the unfortunate tendency for some of our more cock-eyed colleagues to squeal about swingback and crossover when one poll shows a 4pt Labour lead only for it to revert to 8pts the next day and be greeted by silence. This happened many times last year. Comfort blanket polls are dangerous.

    Quite so.

    I'm not against averaging of polls as an additional tool in the punters armoury. Indeed prior to the 2005 GE yours truly published an average of polls, twas the genesis of ARSE, much to the chagrin of OGH who was a non believer in those heady days of the infancy of PB.



    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
    Why is the average of all polls a bad idea? Didn't that used to be called PAPA on here?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    The simple fact is there is little the tories can do. For whatever reason it seems likely the voters of this country will not reward them for a recovering economy and record employment. Its hard for me to work out why anyone would want labour back, other than perhaps they think they will get lots of free stuff. Labour will borrow and spend again, thats what they have always done, interest rates will go up as will unemployment. In my view this has been a very competent coalition government who have governed for the benefit of the country and not for their party. For this they will get punished by the electorate who will vote back in the lot who made the mess, not just of the economy but of public services. There is nothing as funny as folk.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    @Socrates On the two-minute speech point, most parliamentary work (UK or EU) happens in committees or informal haggling. The speeches are just an extra way to put stuff on the record.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    It is a simple way of ironing out outliers from a hyperactive pollster.

    It should reduce somewhat the unfortunate tendency for some of our more cock-eyed colleagues to squeal about swingback and crossover when one poll shows a 4pt Labour lead only for it to revert to 8pts the next day and be greeted by silence. This happened many times last year. Comfort blanket polls are dangerous.

    Quite so.

    I'm not against averaging of polls as an additional tool in the punters armoury. Indeed prior to the 2005 GE yours truly published an average of polls, twas the genesis of ARSE, much to the chagrin of OGH who was a non believer in those heady days of the infancy of PB.



    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
    Why is the average of all polls a bad idea? Didn't that used to be called PAPA on here?
    It is not necessarily a bad idea - but you need to be very careful about what you are doing, and to be really consistent.

    The difficulty is that you are combining polls which have different systematic errors, and if you change the weighting of polls in the average (or even have different time delays from the same polls), you don't know if the trend is due to the different systematic errors, or a genuine movement. At least if you are averaging the same polling method, then the systematic error should be the same.

  • TGOHF said:

    Boris continuing his "being rude" theme

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10567425/Trust-the-people-to-decide-on-Europe-Whatever-next.html

    "It is quite obvious that Labour is not going to give the public a vote on Europe. Miliband has plainly made up what passes for his mind."

    I can't imagine many people care. Europe is not a salient issue. Boris would be wise to talk about something else, if he wants Cameron to win in 2015. I suspect he does not however.


  • TGOHF said:

    Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise higher than prices.

    Gross or take home ?

    Before or after non discretionary spending ?

    or just pick a definition that suits a narrative ?
    Whatever makes them feel richer. We could argue about definitions while Labour walk it.

  • currystar said:

    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    The simple fact is there is little the tories can do. For whatever reason it seems likely the voters of this country will not reward them for a recovering economy and record employment. Its hard for me to work out why anyone would want labour back, other than perhaps they think they will get lots of free stuff. Labour will borrow and spend again, thats what they have always done, interest rates will go up as will unemployment. In my view this has been a very competent coalition government who have governed for the benefit of the country and not for their party. For this they will get punished by the electorate who will vote back in the lot who made the mess, not just of the economy but of public services. There is nothing as funny as folk.
    The Coalition has doubled the debt in five years. Hardly the fierce fiscal Conservatives of popular myth.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    /blockquote>

    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
    Why is the average of all polls a bad idea? Didn't that used to be called PAPA on here?
    Averaging of all polls does not necessarily give a more accurate figure . If you take Comres online and telephone polls they consistently give UKIP figures differing by 6-8% , averaging them will give a UKIP figure in the middle whereas it is more likely that the true figure is at one of the extremes .
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    I guess the point of the backbenchers' play is the thinly-veiled threat at the end of the Carswell piece:

    But if they cannot spell out in detail what their new deal might look like, others will do it for them.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100253602/im-one-of-the-mps-who-signed-that-letter-why-does-hague-think-our-veto-plan-is-unrealistic/
    It's the classic move to make when your opponent is trying to fob you off by being vague about what they're going to do after the election. Fill in the blanks for them with concrete proposals, and force them to deny them. The twist is that in this case the backbenchers' opponents are their own leadership...

    Of course that's their tactic.

    Even the most wild-eyed Eurosceptic who signed that letter can't have seriously expected Cameron to reply "fair enough, I'll make that my red line on renegotiations, I wish you had told me this earlier"

    *chortle*

    The know perfectly well the Cameroon strategy is to obfuscate desperately on what it would take for Cameron to actually support staying OUT. The Cameroons have to leave a huge amount of wiggle room so any old toot can be passed off as a 'triumph' and a reason to support staying IN should it actually get to any referendum.

    They also see Cameron and Hague's pledge of an EU referendum Bill diminishing fast and going the same way as all the other half-hearted posturing that left so many of them looking like gullible fools time and time again.

    So they start with this pie in the sky nonsense and will then work their way in by increments in trying to nail down any 'red lines' and concrete details for renegotiations.

    That way when the EU election results have tory MPs and the tory base and panicking sufficiently they issue their demands and they do so by prefacing them with all the things that the Cameroons and the likes of Hague have already refused to give them. (probably adding such things as the failure of the EU referendum Bill and all the other times they were sold a pup) If the tories really do start running about like headless chickens over the EU again and if Cammie starts emulating John Major again in response then who knows what kind of unrealistic concessions they will be able to get from a fearful Cameron? If the concessions are for after 2015 he can, after all, promise them the earth and worry about wriggling out of it later.

    Nor is it just the likes of Carswell or Cash anymore. That's a big chunk of the tory backbenches who signed that. Well above 46 as I'm sure Cammie knows.

  • @JackW Pay attention please

    Normal poll averaging involves taking the latest numbers from all the pollsters.

    What I am doing here is to take the numbers produced in a six day period from one pollster using the same methodlogy.

    I also want to create a good reference point for YouGov. They do so many polls it is hard to determine what YouGov was showing at a particular time.

    A very wise move @MikeSmithson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited January 2014
    Congratulations to Dallas Buyers Club on its two Golden Globes wins for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor - and to Spike Jonze for Best Screenplay for Her. Worthy winners all. And yet none of them thought worthy of even a nomination by the BAFTAs - exposed as cruelly blinkered and parochial in their selections.

    The Oscar betting tho this year looks more wide open than I can remember it. Not at all sure the Golden Globe winners are going to get the nod by the Oscar voters....

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:

    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    The simple fact is there is little the tories can do. For whatever reason it seems likely the voters of this country will not reward them for a recovering economy and record employment. Its hard for me to work out why anyone would want labour back, other than perhaps they think they will get lots of free stuff. Labour will borrow and spend again, thats what they have always done, interest rates will go up as will unemployment. In my view this has been a very competent coalition government who have governed for the benefit of the country and not for their party. For this they will get punished by the electorate who will vote back in the lot who made the mess, not just of the economy but of public services. There is nothing as funny as folk.
    The Coalition has doubled the debt in five years. Hardly the fierce fiscal Conservatives of popular myth.

    They inherited the structural deficit created by Labour, do you really think that you can wipe that out in three years. What happened to Labours cutting too far too fast?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Scout, you appear to have accidentally completely forgotten what I said to you yesterday regarding the debt.

    Except by cutting expenditure by a colossal sum immediately (and assuming that tax receipts would not decline or growth be adversely affected) debt necessarily had to rise because the deficit was so enormous. Given Labour attacked the Coalition for cutting 'too far, too fast' it is not so much disingenuous as rancidly hypocritical to then attack them for cutting 'too little, too slow'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I see from Guido that Ed Balls seems intent on stepping into the role left vacant by John Prescott's departure from the political stage....
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227

    DavidL said:

    This [YouGov] also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.


    There will be a quirky town council two-seat by-election later this month. Labour isn't putting up a candidate at all, preferring to endorse the independent who I've known for many years - an approach I've used in other areas before (at town/parish level I'm not convinced candidates should be party representatives at all). The other candidates are Tories and LibDems so we'll get some measure of how they're doing.




    Nice bit of spin to explain why Labour are not putting up any candidates for a 2 seat contest when one of the 2 seats being defended is a Labour seat and the other a Lib Dem . All those Lib Dems who you are sure will vote for you in 2015 will just have to carry on voting as they have been since 2010 for the Lib Dems . .
    Yeah, IOW, you couldn't get anybody to stand.

    A sad indictment of the Broxstowe Labour party.

  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Scout, you appear to have accidentally completely forgotten what I said to you yesterday regarding the debt.

    Except by cutting expenditure by a colossal sum immediately (and assuming that tax receipts would not decline or growth be adversely affected) debt necessarily had to rise because the deficit was so enormous. Given Labour attacked the Coalition for cutting 'too far, too fast' it is not so much disingenuous as rancidly hypocritical to then attack them for cutting 'too little, too slow'.

    Then why tell the electorate that they are reducing it? They have created a myth that will soon be uncovered - at the worst possible time.
  • currystar said:

    currystar said:

    DavidL said:

    This is a welcome idea but it also highlights that the starting point is not a good one for the tories. An average lead of 6.8% for Labour over the last week suggests that they have slipped back a per cent or two over the festive period. And this is despite the substantial increase in economic confidence for the country and job confidence for the individuals over that time.

    If the tories are not going to be rewarded for their economic success (as per 97) they have a major problem. What else can they do to make sure that they at least remain the major party? Benefit reform remains popular in concept even although support soon weakens when the individuals affected are paraded before the media. The education reforms seem to be becoming more popular too but as with the economy there is little, in fact no sign of the tories benefitting much. Will Hunt's mea culpa today help? I doubt it as not enough people will pay attention.

    The tories are left hanging on to the idea of swingback. At the moment the government is unpopular and having to make unpopular decisions. Will it be different if (it is not a when) Labour have to make choices too?

    The prospects of an easy tory win delivered on the back of an economic recovery are fading. There is much for the tories to do.

    Would it that more Conservatives were as open-eyed.
    A fabulous post.
    The simple fact is there is little the tories can do. For whatever reason it seems likely the voters of this country will not reward them for a recovering economy and record employment. Its hard for me to work out why anyone would want labour back, other than perhaps they think they will get lots of free stuff. Labour will borrow and spend again, thats what they have always done, interest rates will go up as will unemployment. In my view this has been a very competent coalition government who have governed for the benefit of the country and not for their party. For this they will get punished by the electorate who will vote back in the lot who made the mess, not just of the economy but of public services. There is nothing as funny as folk.
    The Coalition has doubled the debt in five years. Hardly the fierce fiscal Conservatives of popular myth.

    They inherited the structural deficit created by Labour, do you really think that you can wipe that out in three years. What happened to Labours cutting too far too fast?
    Indeed so. But why they tell the public that they are paying down debt? The myth will be uncovered at the worst possible time for the government.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited January 2014

    currystar said:



    They inherited the structural deficit created by Labour, do you really think that you can wipe that out in three years. What happened to Labours cutting too far too fast?

    Indeed so. But why they tell the public that they are paying down debt? The myth will be uncovered at the worst possible time for the government.

    Realistically because 99% of the population, 97% of journalists and 95% of politicians don't know, understand, or really appreciate the difference between debt and deficit, and so they are permanently conflated as the same thing. I wasted a lot of time in the first year of this government correcting people online all over the place - to absolutely no benefit other than a waste of my time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,036



    Indeed so. But why they tell the public that they are paying down debt? The myth will be uncovered at the worst possible time for the government.

    I hardly think it will come as a shock to the electorate that the country is running a deficit, since you hear about it almost every day on the news.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    On topic. As had already been said this is handy for flattening out any daily spikes and outliers, but it still only applies to Kellner's YouGov polling. They may poll the most but that doesn't make them the last word in polling and all the other polling should still carry weight.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mick_Pork said:

    On topic. As had already been said this is handy for flattening out any daily spikes and outliers, but it still only applies to Kellner's YouGov polling. They may poll the most but that doesn't make them the last word in polling and all the other polling should still carry weight.

    Is it true that they only ask people on their database once per electoral cycle to complete the daily poll ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson - I recall a time on PB, when you had more hair than Kojak and ARSE was a mere twinkle in my eye, that you railed against the averaging of polls.

    Happy days ?!? .... your hair brushes weren't obsolete, I wasn't on nursing agencies blacklists, Michael Howard was still stalking graveyards for votes and Gordon Brown was flogging off the nations gold on a BOGOF basis.

    Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be !!

    /blockquote>

    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
    Why is the average of all polls a bad idea? Didn't that used to be called PAPA on here?
    Averaging of all polls does not necessarily give a more accurate figure . If you take Comres online and telephone polls they consistently give UKIP figures differing by 6-8% , averaging them will give a UKIP figure in the middle whereas it is more likely that the true figure is at one of the extremes .
    Is it? I would have thought it is more likely to be nearer the average

    Why is it more likely to be at one of the extremes.

    Not trying to be argumentative, I am genuinely interested... I would have thought that as per wisdom of the crowd, the average of all polls would be the most accurate poll
  • RobD said:



    Indeed so. But why they tell the public that they are paying down debt? The myth will be uncovered at the worst possible time for the government.

    I hardly think it will come as a shock to the electorate that the country is running a deficit, since you hear about it almost every day on the news.

    You think the public understands what a deficit is? Most people think it means the same as debt...
  • Lennon said:

    currystar said:



    They inherited the structural deficit created by Labour, do you really think that you can wipe that out in three years. What happened to Labours cutting too far too fast?

    Indeed so. But why they tell the public that they are paying down debt? The myth will be uncovered at the worst possible time for the government.

    Realistically because 99% of the population, 97% of journalists and 95% of politicians don't know, understand, or really appreciate the difference between debt and deficit, and so they are permanently conflated as the same thing. I wasted a lot of time in the first year of this government correcting people online all over the place - to absolutely no benefit other than a waste of my time.
    Quite so. Please note @RobD
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Gaius said:

    <

    Yeah, IOW, you couldn't get anybody to stand.

    A sad indictment of the Broxstowe Labour party.

    Who or what is IOW?

    I don't think we should put up candidates for every town/parish election, personally - if there's a good independent, it's better to support them, both objectively and strategically; putting up one candidate is also an option but again risks looking like an alternative to the indie who we favour. In general I've always favoured a broad electoral coalition approach - hence the whole LibDems/Tories for Palmer thing. But from your knowledge of "Broxstowe" (where's that?) you and Mark are free to disagree. We'll see in 2015 how it works out!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    TGOHF said:

    Unless the Conservatives can produce some hard policies that will improve living standards for the lefty Gen Xers who earn the money yet struggle with big mortgages and vote Labour they are finished. They cannot rely on the wealthy Baby Boomers to save them. X marks the spot.

    Define "improve living standards"
    Wages that rise higher than prices.

    Gross or take home ?

    Before or after non discretionary spending ?

    or just pick a definition that suits a narrative ?
    Whatever makes them feel richer. We could argue about definitions while Labour walk it.

    Well, Labour have utterly lost the argument on both growth and the deficit, which they spent the first two years of this parliament wittering on about. They've now moved onto something that is far more subjective.

    If Labour cannot define what they mean, then the argument is based on sand. "whatever makes them feel richer" is utterly emotional, and liable to manipulation - as happened with education grades, which we have now learnt, from Labour's shadow ed sec, were prone to grade inflation.

    Definitions are vital.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:


    /blockquote>

    I may be mis-remembering, but I thought that OGH railed against averaging polls from different pollsters or using different methods - as you were averageing things which were not directly comparable. Clearly in this case that doesn't apply...
    Why is the average of all polls a bad idea? Didn't that used to be called PAPA on here?
    Averaging of all polls does not necessarily give a more accurate figure . If you take Comres online and telephone polls they consistently give UKIP figures differing by 6-8% , averaging them will give a UKIP figure in the middle whereas it is more likely that the true figure is at one of the extremes .
    Is it? I would have thought it is more likely to be nearer the average

    Why is it more likely to be at one of the extremes.

    Not trying to be argumentative, I am genuinely interested... I would have thought that as per wisdom of the crowd, the average of all polls would be the most accurate poll
    In this example you have the same pollster , same methodology but different sampling online and telephone . The chances of both methods being equally wrong is less than one of the sampling pools giving consistently wrong results .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,036


    Quite so. Please note @RobD

    So if the myth hasn't been 'uncovered' after three years of constant media bombardment about the deficit, then I don't think it will be after another one.

    I don't agree with the argument that journalists don't understand the difference between the debt and the deficit, as I find it is often reported on correctly in the media.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Most of the country doesn't understand much about anything to do with politics or economics.

    It's why I've backed Ed to be next PM and Balls to be next chancellor !
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Some frightening swings v actual GE2010

    Lib to Lab 11.7
    Lib to UKIP 12.0
    Lib to Con 4.7

    Con to UKIP 7.5
    Con to Lab 7.2

    Lab to UKIP 0.3

    Some major headaches after the May Locals and European elections.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    RobD said:


    Quite so. Please note @RobD

    So if the myth hasn't been 'uncovered' after three years of constant media bombardment about the deficit, then I don't think it will be after another one.

    I don't agree with the argument that journalists don't understand the difference between the debt and the deficit, as I find it is often reported on correctly in the media.

    Which media? Broadsheet Print media you might be correct - I think that the FT and Economist are generally right, and have editors to correct as well if required. Tabloid or tv media totally different in my view. (But have to admit that I haven't the time to source evidence about this, and it is more an impression than an accurate, researched point)
This discussion has been closed.