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Good news for Gavin Williamson – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312
    Hello, have we a problem or have I killed the conversation?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    Do you have a reference for that prediction?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,139
    edited August 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    -3.5C in Scotland would probably mean the birth of Observatory Glacier (amongst others). Bring it on!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    Do you have a reference for that prediction?
    This wasn't my source, think it came from NigelB, though memory could be falling me:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-019-0011-3

    Unfortunately, I can't dig part the abstract to anywhere that is more specific about prevailing winds, but I figured that we already get weather from most directions, so whatever prevails will be some variant of a current weather pattern. From which I picked out the 'Blocked, High pressure to the West', and it's winter light coastal flurries cousin, as fitting the bill.

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/56303-guide-to-uk-summer-setups/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    edited August 2021
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 21,153

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    -3.5C in Scotland would probably mean the birth of Observatory Glacier (amongst others). Bring it on!
    On Ben Nevis, I hope, not Blackford Hill.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466

    The DFE look like they have the Midas touch compared to the ECB.

    Here's a stat to cheer up we England supporters.

    The last time England won a Test match with neither of Stuart Broad or James Anderson in the XI was in June 2007 - six months before Broad's Test debut.

    https://twitter.com/WisdenCricket/status/1425513978101321732

    With Broad ruled out of the series and Anderson with an injury set to rule him out tomorrow we may end up being more f*cked than a Stepmom on Pornhub.

    To be fair there have only been two tests since then without at least one of Broad or Anderson, so it’s hardly a surprise that the last win was so long ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467

    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes, I do get the (thunderingly obvious) point of the saying. Equally, the people I know who get the most fun out of life are also the ones who work the hardest (not me, I'm lazy and depression-ridden). Hard work gets them money which, sadly, gets them happiness.

    A question: how do you know they're happy? Is it that you see what they are doing with their money, like it, and think it would make you happy if you could do the same? Or are they the sort of people who go around proclaiming how happy they are (which probably means they are not)?

    Happiness is almost invisible from the outside. There are plenty of divorcees who will proclaim they thought their spouse was happy until they got asked for a divorce. Likewise, there are plenty of depressives who can smile at a good joke.
    All the happiest people that I know spend a lot of time doing things for other people, and the least happy are those that only look after themselves. I am not entirely sure which comes first, the happiness or the service. It is rather chicken and egg.

    I think this is why deathbed regrets are about not spending time with friends and family, and too much time spent at work.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    Quincel said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Nice odds on that one! When did you place it? Takes a brave, but apparently smart, man to have laid him at those odds when the polls were basically tied.
    Hey but I backed him at 8 so there. Me and Isam both smug city on this. He's split the difference now. 🙂
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    edited August 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    Do you have a reference for that prediction?
    This wasn't my source, think it came from NigelB, though memory could be falling me:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-019-0011-3

    Unfortunately, I can't dig part the abstract to anywhere that is more specific about prevailing winds, but I figured that we already get weather from most directions, so whatever prevails will be some variant of a current weather pattern. From which I picked out the 'Blocked, High pressure to the West', and it's winter light coastal flurries cousin, as fitting the bill.

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/56303-guide-to-uk-summer-setups/
    Mmmm... I can't help but think we'd have a climate similar to Prince Rupert BC without the gulf stream (same latitude, west facing coast). That's not a climate to envy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Rupert,_British_Columbia#Climate

    Edit: Or Stewart, BC at 55deg N - even worse: "Stewart is one of the cloudiest places in the world."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart,_British_Columbia#Climate
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I'm not talking about money. I'm talking about coping emotionally in the event of an individual you consider unfit to be PM becoming PM. Don’t pretend you and "Sir Keir" is just about your betting judgement. Your feelings about him and all he represents are clear to anyone who reads your posts seriously. And that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quite the contrary. I don't know why you try and insert this phony layer of 'not bothered' in there. Doesn't fool anybody in any case.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    Couldn’t disagree more about net ratings, I outline my reasons here


    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-optical-illusion-of-net-ratings.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658

    The DFE look like they have the Midas touch compared to the ECB.

    Here's a stat to cheer up we England supporters.

    The last time England won a Test match with neither of Stuart Broad or James Anderson in the XI was in June 2007 - six months before Broad's Test debut.

    https://twitter.com/WisdenCricket/status/1425513978101321732

    With Broad ruled out of the series and Anderson with an injury set to rule him out tomorrow we may end up being more f*cked than a Stepmom on Pornhub.

    To be fair there have only been two tests since then without at least one of Broad or Anderson, so it’s hardly a surprise that the last win was so long ago.
    Is that right? I did wonder, but that’s quite remarkable to be honest given how tough fast bowling is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    I'm pretty sure he'll lead into the election. And as of now I give him a puncher's chance of PM minority Lab govt. Say 25% or possibly 33%.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,466
    tlg86 said:

    The DFE look like they have the Midas touch compared to the ECB.

    Here's a stat to cheer up we England supporters.

    The last time England won a Test match with neither of Stuart Broad or James Anderson in the XI was in June 2007 - six months before Broad's Test debut.

    https://twitter.com/WisdenCricket/status/1425513978101321732

    With Broad ruled out of the series and Anderson with an injury set to rule him out tomorrow we may end up being more f*cked than a Stepmom on Pornhub.

    To be fair there have only been two tests since then without at least one of Broad or Anderson, so it’s hardly a surprise that the last win was so long ago.
    Is that right? I did wonder, but that’s quite remarkable to be honest given how tough fast bowling is.
    According to 5live this afternoon. Not that surprised as both have been pretty reliable in both fitness and form.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,467
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I'm not talking about money. I'm talking about coping emotionally in the event of an individual you consider unfit to be PM becoming PM. Don’t pretend you and "Sir Keir" is just about your betting judgement. Your feelings about him and all he represents are clear to anyone who reads your posts seriously. And that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quite the contrary. I don't know why you try and insert this phony layer of 'not bothered' in there. Doesn't fool anybody in any case.
    I wrote quite a lengthy reply to that, and it seems to have been deleted
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I'm not talking about money. I'm talking about coping emotionally in the event of an individual you consider unfit to be PM becoming PM. Don’t pretend you and "Sir Keir" is just about your betting judgement. Your feelings about him and all he represents are clear to anyone who reads your posts seriously. And that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quite the contrary. I don't know why you try and insert this phony layer of 'not bothered' in there. Doesn't fool anybody in any case.
    I’m not talking about money either. I thought you meant ‘how would I cope with having called it so badly wrong?’, so I replied that I get a lot else wrong etc

    I don’t consider Sir Keir unfit to be PM, I’ve never said anything approaching any such thing. My main thing about him is I don’t think he has the charisma to win a GE against Boris. I don’t like his politics much but I managed to live through 2010-2016 alright, and would have coped just fine had Remain won the referendum. I doubt he’d do much different to Boris’s Blue Labour if he was PM anyway, if he showed his true colours he’d never get in
    A slippery North London lawyer who loves Free Movement and did his slippery damnedest to betray and cancel Brexit is fit to be PM in your eyes?

    Like my old granny used to say - pull the other one it's got bells on.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I'm not talking about money. I'm talking about coping emotionally in the event of an individual you consider unfit to be PM becoming PM. Don’t pretend you and "Sir Keir" is just about your betting judgement. Your feelings about him and all he represents are clear to anyone who reads your posts seriously. And that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quite the contrary. I don't know why you try and insert this phony layer of 'not bothered' in there. Doesn't fool anybody in any case.
    I’m not talking about money either. I thought you meant ‘how would I cope with having called it so badly wrong?’, so I replied that I get a lot else wrong etc

    I don’t consider Sir Keir unfit to be PM, I’ve never said anything approaching any such thing. My main thing about him is I don’t think he has the charisma to win a GE against Boris. I don’t like his politics much but I managed to live through 2010-2016 alright, and would have coped just fine had Remain won the referendum. I doubt he’d do much different to Boris’s Blue Labour if he was PM anyway, if he showed his true colours he’d never get in
    A slippery North London lawyer who loves Free Movement and did his slippery damnedest to betray and cancel Brexit is fit to be PM in your eyes?

    Like my old granny used to say - pull the other one it's got bells on.
    Believe it or not, it doesn’t matter. You can’t always get what you want. If he wins, he wins. Just because I disagree with him doesn’t make him unfit to be PM, I’m not a remoaner remember!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,267
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I'm not talking about money. I'm talking about coping emotionally in the event of an individual you consider unfit to be PM becoming PM. Don’t pretend you and "Sir Keir" is just about your betting judgement. Your feelings about him and all he represents are clear to anyone who reads your posts seriously. And that's nothing to be ashamed of. Quite the contrary. I don't know why you try and insert this phony layer of 'not bothered' in there. Doesn't fool anybody in any case.
    I wrote quite a lengthy reply to that, and it seems to have been deleted
    Most odd. But I captured and replied before it went.

    Unless that goes too!
  • Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    Javid said "may"

    iSage and Starmer dropped the "may" and said it "would" happen.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,655
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574
    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    Can't help but think that Johnson's best bet would be to call a "post-pandemic" election next spring followinf a repeal of the FTPA, and assuming covid has moved into a chronic rather than acute phase by then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,655
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    I'm pretty sure he'll lead into the election. And as of now I give him a puncher's chance of PM minority Lab govt. Say 25% or possibly 33%.
    Soo. Given all the shit on here that is relentlessy anti Boris, Starmer has something of a one in four to a one in three chance of being PM. Keep up the insults... Boris will be home and dry.
  • Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    I think they started off as wanting to do something different and be kind of centre-right but realised there was no market for this. Look at what happened with the Indie. They started off trying to be centrist but ended up as a Guardian clone.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,187
    I want Johnson to remain in place until the general election and think that the worst thing that can happen to LAB and the LDs is for him to be replaced. He is electorally toxic in certain seats as we saw in Chesham and Amersham
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,830
    edited August 2021

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Hiring half of Talk Radio (and the nutter antivax / antilockdown half at that) is just stupid. The target demographic of GB News, the older more Brexity types who hate the way Sky News has gone aren't going to be impressed with the antivaxxer stuff.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,536

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
    Let's see who are smiling after the GE - and who are still on here complaining about 'Boris' and/or 'nasty Tories'.

    In the real world people, when they have to choose between CON and Keir, will make the right choice.

    One more term for us in 2023/2024. LAB can win thereafter if they sort themselves out, get a decent team and some sensible credible policies. They haven't got those at the moment.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    I'm pretty sure he'll lead into the election. And as of now I give him a puncher's chance of PM minority Lab govt. Say 25% or possibly 33%.
    Soo. Given all the shit on here that is relentlessy anti Boris, Starmer has something of a one in four to a one in three chance of being PM. Keep up the insults... Boris will be home and dry.
    Is that what you want? Do you think that would be best for the country?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Isn’t Fox News extremely profitable, and in its own terms rather successful ?
  • kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    I'm pretty sure he'll lead into the election. And as of now I give him a puncher's chance of PM minority Lab govt. Say 25% or possibly 33%.
    Soo. Given all the shit on here that is relentlessy anti Boris...
    "Other political blogs are available."

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,649

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    I suspect the truth is that Brillo was miffed at being demoted to playing Tommy Cannon to Farage's Bobby Ball.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Isn’t Fox News extremely profitable, and in its own terms rather successful ?
    Yebbut... the UK and the USA are very different markets.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Isn’t Fox News extremely profitable, and in its own terms rather successful ?
    Maybe in its own terms.
    In terms of its effect on American democracy?

    Not so much.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574

    I want Johnson to remain in place until the general election and think that the worst thing that can happen to LAB and the LDs is for him to be replaced. He is electorally toxic in certain seats as we saw in Chesham and Amersham

    Not only that, he is a one-man gaffe machine.

    There are those who have not been done over/let down/offended by Johnson…and those who are simply waiting for that status.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    Polish parliament passes controversial new media ownership bill
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/poland-coalition-under-threat-as-parliament-votes-on-controversial-media-bill
    Polish MPs have passed a controversial new media ownership law that could lead to the country’s largest remaining independent TV station losing its licence, but at the cost of several key votes that put the government’s longterm future in doubt.

    After a night of protests in Warsaw and 80 other towns and cities against the bill, which opponents see as an attempt to silence an often critical broadcaster, the law passed on Wednesday by 228 votes to 216 in the 460-seat lower house.

    The vote came amid stormy scenes after the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, on Tuesday fired his deputy, Jarosław Gowin, the leader of the junior coalition member Accord, for criticising the law, prompting the party to leave the government.…


  • Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    That always looked likely, to be honest,
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    edited August 2021
    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    Nigelb said:

    Polish parliament passes controversial new media ownership bill
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/11/poland-coalition-under-threat-as-parliament-votes-on-controversial-media-bill
    Polish MPs have passed a controversial new media ownership law that could lead to the country’s largest remaining independent TV station losing its licence, but at the cost of several key votes that put the government’s longterm future in doubt.

    After a night of protests in Warsaw and 80 other towns and cities against the bill, which opponents see as an attempt to silence an often critical broadcaster, the law passed on Wednesday by 228 votes to 216 in the 460-seat lower house.

    The vote came amid stormy scenes after the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, on Tuesday fired his deputy, Jarosław Gowin, the leader of the junior coalition member Accord, for criticising the law, prompting the party to leave the government.…


    A party that will hold illegal votes will falsify the next Polish elections. Wait for it.
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1425563176696008706

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574

    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is increasingly towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.

    Not sure about that.

    Markets tend toward monopoly.

    And maybe democracies tend toward technocratic oligopolies.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443

    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.

    No need for elections then.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,478

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    OT, suggestions that Sicily may have reached a record-breaking 48.8 C (120F) today.

    Disturbing. I am starting to wonder when the southern Med will actually become too hot to inhabit. Anything over 40C is far too hot. 48.8C is insane. Dangerously hot. Actively lethal
    I think 45c is the survivable threshold (and unable to cool down). I'm toast at 35c. I've always thought very highly of posters in Northern climes..) Especially those with spare rooms.
    The two places I experienced a heat like that was at Alice Springs (Aus) and Capernaum on the Sea of Galileo ( Israel) and it was unbearable
    Galilee
    Highest temperature I have ever experience was 47c, in the Dead Sea.

    Which was perfectly OK when I was swimming in it but truly horrible once I had even a pair of shorts and a thin shirt on again.

    Strangely, that felt even hotter than walking down from Masada after the cable car broke. And three of our party got heat exhaustion doing that.
    Death Valley for me, also had a month in Dallas where it never got below 100 degrees, luckily lots of air conditioning but not so nice outside for any length.
    The only time I've ever been near to heat stroke was in....er....Fort William
    You must have picked a good day right enough
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,187

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
    Let's see who are smiling after the GE - and who are still on here complaining about 'Boris' and/or 'nasty Tories'.

    In the real world people, when they have to choose between CON and Keir, will make the right choice.

    One more term for us in 2023/2024. LAB can win thereafter if they sort themselves out, get a decent team and some sensible credible policies. They haven't got those at the moment.

    There has been a 4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 according to the latest R&W and Survation polls. Every survey which has a CON lead of less than 12% is pointing to seat losses.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    Andy_JS said:

    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.

    No need for elections then.
    Nah keep them - they mitigate against dicatorships.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    I want Johnson to remain in place until the general election and think that the worst thing that can happen to LAB and the LDs is for him to be replaced. He is electorally toxic in certain seats as we saw in Chesham and Amersham

    What do you make of Sir Keir’s Labour getting the parties worst share of the vote in all three English by elections (Hartlepool, C&A, and Batley & Spen)?

    Not just worse than Jezza, the worst they’ve ever done. I thought the opposition were meant to do well in By Elections?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,361
    edited August 2021

    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is increasingly towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.

    Not sure about that.

    Markets tend toward monopoly.

    And maybe democracies tend toward technocratic oligopolies.
    Like the impact of the French Revolution, it's 'too early to say' what the long-term prognosis for democracy is.

    We've only had real democracy for c.100 years - it could be just a passing phase. (Indeed it looked like it might be passing quite soon back in January in the US.)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,536

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
    Let's see who are smiling after the GE - and who are still on here complaining about 'Boris' and/or 'nasty Tories'.

    In the real world people, when they have to choose between CON and Keir, will make the right choice.

    One more term for us in 2023/2024. LAB can win thereafter if they sort themselves out, get a decent team and some sensible credible policies. They haven't got those at the moment.

    There has been a 4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 according to the latest R&W and Survation polls. Every survey which has a CON lead of less than 12% is pointing to seat losses.
    Absolutely - if it happens at a GE. Don't forget it's mid term! Under normal expectations LAB need to be miles clear at the moment, but they are not.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,830
    edited August 2021
    New details of advice for double jabbed who come into contact w covid (from Monday):
    Wear a mask in enclosed spaces
    Minimise contact w others
    But no legal requirement to isolate or take a test

    Plus workplace daily testing scheme to continue for unvaxxed.
    https://t.co/nhoRF3FCiI

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425571775245651969?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,520

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    For some of its initial participants probably not. And it was only fair to see if it would become that, rather than assuming beforehand that it definitely would.

    But it seemed like that's where the market for it would be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    -3.5C in Scotland would probably mean the birth of Observatory Glacier (amongst others). Bring it on!
    And we surely need it to get competitive in the Winter Olympics?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,187

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
    Let's see who are smiling after the GE - and who are still on here complaining about 'Boris' and/or 'nasty Tories'.

    In the real world people, when they have to choose between CON and Keir, will make the right choice.

    One more term for us in 2023/2024. LAB can win thereafter if they sort themselves out, get a decent team and some sensible credible policies. They haven't got those at the moment.

    There has been a 4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 according to the latest R&W and Survation polls. Every survey which has a CON lead of less than 12% is pointing to seat losses.
    Absolutely - if it happens at a GE. Don't forget it's mid term! Under normal expectations LAB need to be miles clear at the moment, but they are not.
    The big worry for the Tories is the sharp decline in leader ratings for Johnson particularity amongst the ABC1s and graduates.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,520

    I am now of the opinion that it makes f*ck all difference which party wins; the long sweep of history is towards more left-of-centre policies socially, environmentally, and now increasingly, economically.

    By your own terms it definitely does matter then, since even if there is an inevitability on the broad sweep of things, how quickly that end is sought and the precise details of how would have significant effects and impacts in the short and medium term, and when the long term arrives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,830
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    For some of its initial participants probably not. And it was only fair to see if it would become that, rather than assuming beforehand that it definitely would.

    But it seemed like that's where the market for it would be.
    Fox News antivaxxer, antilockdown, covid isn't very serious is not winning market for GB News.

    The one show that is doing well is Farage, who swiftly worked out last year that wasn't a successful strategy to be antilockdown and so his show is all the illegal immigrants stories, the red wall left behinders, the red meat that Brexit types like, having a dust up with Red Ken or Peter Hitchins.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 160
    isam said:

    I want Johnson to remain in place until the general election and think that the worst thing that can happen to LAB and the LDs is for him to be replaced. He is electorally toxic in certain seats as we saw in Chesham and Amersham

    What do you make of Sir Keir’s Labour getting the parties worst share of the vote in all three English by elections (Hartlepool, C&A, and Batley & Spen)?

    Not just worse than Jezza, the worst they’ve ever done. I thought the opposition were meant to do well in By Elections?
    Of course it's good for opposition Parties to want Johnson not to be replaced while he goes to be less of a winner. But there's another reason to for opposition to want to keep in place: we'll surely have an economically more hawkish government if he is replaced; and the state needs to spend on education-catch-up, criminal justice, NHS, care, local services.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    Yes, but the Johnson fan boys do rather have a whiff of "Ed Is Crap Is Prime Minister" about them. It all looks inevitable that Johnson wins again, until it doesn't.
    I suppose you’re saying I am a ‘Johnson fan boy’. I don’t think you’d actually be able to find much praise from me for him on here - I just think the criticism and predictions from others are based on their anger at losing the referendum and 2019 GE. Post 2017 GE a lot of remainers had hopes of a Lab govt, a second referendum and Brexit not happening - all three were foiled and they’ve not been able to cope with that

    I wouldn’t say my analysis of the current leaders is the same as the EICIPM thing at all. That was just a literal reading of mid term polls
    I want thinking of you specifically as a fan boy, but at the moment people are making the same reading of mid term polls. Indeed through 2017-18 polling was pretty static with Labour under Corbyn very close to the Tory share.

    Polls change when elections loom, and while Johnson has some charisma, it is rather marmite and inspires loathing more frequently than love. His negative ratings are not to be ignored.
    Polls change towards the charismatic leader when elections loom. Sir Keir’s ratings are negative too, and fewer people are positive about him.
    Sure, I think SKS is a loser too, and have often said so here. But quite possibly the Johnson haters will be more likely to vote than the ever depleting Johnson fanboys. We have some harsh austerity heading our way, and no amount of hair ruffling will make that shit sandwich more tasty.
    You wouldn't have thought so goven the tyresd hearders abd comments which are just endless anti Boris. When Dura Ace the anarchist attacks me, i know that my pointing out the obvious is getting home.
    Let's see who are smiling after the GE - and who are still on here complaining about 'Boris' and/or 'nasty Tories'.

    In the real world people, when they have to choose between CON and Keir, will make the right choice.

    One more term for us in 2023/2024. LAB can win thereafter if they sort themselves out, get a decent team and some sensible credible policies. They haven't got those at the moment.

    There has been a 4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 according to the latest R&W and Survation polls. Every survey which has a CON lead of less than 12% is pointing to seat losses.
    Absolutely - if it happens at a GE. Don't forget it's mid term! Under normal expectations LAB need to be miles clear at the moment, but they are not.
    The big worry for the Tories is the sharp decline in leader ratings for Johnson particularity amongst the ABC1s and graduates.



    The Tories haven't won graduates since 2015 however and overall Johnson still leads Starmer as preferred PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,520
    edited August 2021

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
  • Nigelb said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Isn’t Fox News extremely profitable, and in its own terms rather successful ?
    Yebbut... the UK and the USA are very different markets.
    And some of the big moneyspinners for Fox News (cable subscriptions and election campaign ads) aren't available to GBN.

    Most of the upper reaches of Freeview are channels running repeats, imports, imported repeats and teleshopping. Because that's what the advertising for small audiences supports. It's the same reason that Live TV was so terrible.

    Though News Bunny could be brought back- the name's halfway there already.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited August 2021

    I want Johnson to remain in place until the general election and think that the worst thing that can happen to LAB and the LDs is for him to be replaced. He is electorally toxic in certain seats as we saw in Chesham and Amersham

    That depends, if Johnson is replaced by Sunak that might boost the Tories a bit in London and Remain areas of the South like Chesham and Amersham, less so in the Red Wall.

    Any other alternative Tory leader would probably poll worse than Johnson and boost the Labour and LD vote
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 12,574
    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.
  • Nigelb said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Isn’t Fox News extremely profitable, and in its own terms rather successful ?
    Yebbut... the UK and the USA are very different markets.
    And some of the big moneyspinners for Fox News (cable subscriptions and election campaign ads) aren't available to GBN.

    Most of the upper reaches of Freeview are channels running repeats, imports, imported repeats and teleshopping. Because that's what the advertising for small audiences supports. It's the same reason that Live TV was so terrible.

    Though News Bunny could be brought back- the name's halfway there already.
    As a number of people pointed out even before it launched, there is no market in the UK for TV News like there is in the US. BBC News Channel viewership is pretty small, Sky News is tiny, ITV News failed. There isn't millions of people sitting around wanting to watch rolling news "entertainment" in the UK, in the way there is in the US.

    And of those who do take more than a passing interest in news and current affairs, loads of YouTube channels now exist across the political spectrum that cover this and if you want really specialist knowledge on a particular subject there is a channel for it somewhere on YouTube.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,520

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    For some of its initial participants probably not. And it was only fair to see if it would become that, rather than assuming beforehand that it definitely would.

    But it seemed like that's where the market for it would be.
    Fox News antivaxxer, antilockdown, covid isn't very serious is not winning market for GB News.

    The one show that is doing well is Farage, who swiftly worked out last year that wasn't a successful strategy to be antilockdown and so his show is all the illegal immigrants stories, the red wall left behinders, the red meat that Brexit types like, having a dust up with Red Ken or Peter Hitchins.
    Anti vax, anti lockdown perhaps not, but unabashedly pro specific positions and pandering to a specific audience (as much as can be done on our tv) is what I meant by its market. People can already get relatively balanced news, and they like monologues and polemics.

    Whether they've selected the right ones, if that is the route they go down, is a different matter.
  • kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    edited August 2021
    The Scottish government has previously made a lot of political hay from its relatively superior performance to England’s COVID-19 response from the start of the pandemic. This narrative is surely discredited now—not least because the Scottish National Party (SNP) has made its own critical mistakes. These mistakes happened primarily because instead of recognizing the pandemic as one that requires a coordinated British response, the party sought to emphasize and promote its differences from London.....

    But some of Scotland’s mistakes have been unique—and entirely driven by the political machinations of the SNP. Early in the pandemic, Holyrood created a parallel scientific advisory body to the U.K.’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, which it then unfortunately politicized by appointing SNP political loyalists. The activities and recommendations of this body largely duplicated the work of its London equivalent, and where it diverged, it was almost always for political reasons—and produced worse results. For example, Scotland insisted on developing its own, separate contact tracing app, with the catastrophic consequence that people traveling to other parts of the United Kingdom from Scotland could not be traced and vice versa......

    Scotland would do well to expend less effort trying to be different from London for the sake of the SNP’s separatist ambitions and spend more time trying to effectively manage an ongoing crisis.


    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/09/scotland-covid-19-policies-united-kingdom-snp/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    edited August 2021

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,830
    edited August 2021
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    For some of its initial participants probably not. And it was only fair to see if it would become that, rather than assuming beforehand that it definitely would.

    But it seemed like that's where the market for it would be.
    Fox News antivaxxer, antilockdown, covid isn't very serious is not winning market for GB News.

    The one show that is doing well is Farage, who swiftly worked out last year that wasn't a successful strategy to be antilockdown and so his show is all the illegal immigrants stories, the red wall left behinders, the red meat that Brexit types like, having a dust up with Red Ken or Peter Hitchins.
    Anti vax, anti lockdown perhaps not, but unabashedly pro specific positions and pandering to a specific audience (as much as can be done on our tv) is what I meant by its market. People can already get relatively balanced news, and they like monologues and polemics.

    Whether they've selected the right ones, if that is the route they go down, is a different matter.
    That's why Farage show does ok, it pushes the right buttons for the target demographic who think BBC and Sky have a world view they don't believe in i.e. anti-brexit, pro large scale migration, and too much focus on things like niche LGBTQ+ issues.

    That's different from telling a 70 year old they were idiots for getting vaccinated and its personal choice for everybody, when those vulnerable people are shit scared of unvaccinated people spreading COVID everywhere (obviously the reality is more complicated with delta).
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,536

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
    Don't forget to set your alarm for Kay Burley tomorrow morning - 7am! :smiley:
  • kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
    Don't forget to set your alarm for Kay Burley tomorrow morning - 7am! :smiley:
    I have stopped watching her altogether and BBC are my default news programme
  • kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
    Don't forget to set your alarm for Kay Burley tomorrow morning - 7am! :smiley:
    It's Sarah-Jane for Meee!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,536

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
    Don't forget to set your alarm for Kay Burley tomorrow morning - 7am! :smiley:
    I have stopped watching her altogether and BBC are my default news programme
    I'm still on Sky - I tried GB News for a few days but didn't bother after that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,576
    I just flicked over to GBN. An anti lockdown prof from UEA wibbling away.
  • kle4 said:

    Apparently Andrew Neil is weighing up his future at GB News. Meanwhile, insiders fear the station is becoming a “U.K. Fox News.”

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1425530566837944325?s=21

    Wasn't that always the intention?
    Yes, but naive Brexity types on here were pooh-poohing what was obvious from the outset.

    Big G was positively priapic in anticipation of its arrival.
    It was clearly possible that that would be its direction, based on plenty of comments its organisers made. Wariness was therefore appropriate. Skepticism too - I didn't and still dont see its wider appeal unless it did go down that route.

    Writing it off completely and acting like it was already embodying the worst of Fox News before it had aired a single second, however, was hyperbolic nonsense dressed up as predictive wisdom. Tucker Carlson getting a show tomorrow wouldn't change that overreaction before anyone knew who would be on it and what would be said.
    I just want to rebut @Gardenwalker nonsensical comment

    I watched GBnews for just two days hoping to see a more balanced media than Sky but as I have posted on here on many occasions how poor it was and have not watched it since

    Indeed Farage is the last straw as far as I am concerned
    Don't forget to set your alarm for Kay Burley tomorrow morning - 7am! :smiley:
    I have stopped watching her altogether and BBC are my default news programme
    I'm still on Sky - I tried GB News for a few days but didn't bother after that.
    It lost me after 48 hours and I simply have forgotten it is broadcasting
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited August 2021
    O/T

    Very surprised that there are still tickets left for the Lords test match, England vs India.

    https://tickets.lords.org/en-GB/categories/internationals
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
    Sunak has definite benefits over Johnson (working on the basis that, although Romford is ubersafe, I'm otherwise the sort of ex-Conservative the party might want to win back someday). He's a politician, but not as shameless a liar as the PM. I'd be confident that he'd do his homework and not be as tawdry as the current incumbent. And I can see that he's keen on a frugal state.

    But Brexit? I don't see how he can reverse ferret sufficiently on that one. He was part of Vote Leave, he's gone along with Johnson's approach. If/when there's a need to change tack, he's not the man to do it. Hunt could, but that's not a runner with the party in its current mood. The counterexample might be Major and the Poll Tax, but he wasn't that closely linked to it in the first place and it was relatively easy to dump.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
    Sunak has definite benefits over Johnson (working on the basis that, although Romford is ubersafe, I'm otherwise the sort of ex-Conservative the party might want to win back someday). He's a politician, but not as shameless a liar as the PM. I'd be confident that he'd do his homework and not be as tawdry as the current incumbent. And I can see that he's keen on a frugal state.

    But Brexit? I don't see how he can reverse ferret sufficiently on that one. He was part of Vote Leave, he's gone along with Johnson's approach. If/when there's a need to change tack, he's not the man to do it. Hunt could, but that's not a runner with the party in its current mood. The counterexample might be Major and the Poll Tax, but he wasn't that closely linked to it in the first place and it was relatively easy to dump.
    And over half the country never voted for it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    He would do slightly better in some areas, like those mentioned by HYUFD, but probably not enough to make much of a difference.
  • Foxy said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Definitely time to say that, thankfully, the fears about the timing of step four were unfounded.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1425473677047500801?s=19

    The likes of Prof Peston of course will never say such a thing.

    Nor iSage who seem to have gone very quiet since their 100,000 prediction was not anywhere near reached
    Sajid Javid is a part of iSage?

    UK Covid cases may soar to 100,000 a day, Sajid Javid warns.

    https://www.ft.com/content/08577e07-faeb-4cd2-96ed-567151b539f6
    He did say "may" go up to 100k. Indy Sage and the rest of them were saying it *definitely would* go up over 100k with step 4. I'm still not sure what's going to happen, especially in 3 and a bit weeks when the schools open up and we have failed to vaccinate 12-17 year olds to any significant degree.

    What's interesting is that the 18-24 demographic just overtook the 25-29 year olds for first dose uptake and the curve hasn't completely levelled off yet. They look to be trending towards where 30-39 year olds finished up. I think the don't get left behind advertising should be ramped up for all under 40s. Especially international travel, that could be a huge way of getting people to get vaccinated. No vaccine no flights, an advert showing a group of pretty young twenty somethings checking in at an airport, posting it all to Instagram while the loser who chose not to get the vaccine sits at home alone.
    "Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless, and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos.

    We're heading now for an NHS summer crisis"

    said Sir Keir
    Starmer Derangement Syndrome. Get a jab.
    Had mine, but surely were allowed to notice when fear mongers cry wolf?

    Anyway, the BDS suffferers have been driven to the verge of madness because he keeps winning in spite of their logic saying it’s impossible. Sir Keir hasn’t done that yet, in fact having gone in quite early on him being crap, saying to lay him as next PM at 2/1, the market says I am right, so far. So the attempted counter doesn’t work
    But you ought to think about how best to cope in the event of him becoming PM. You might think you can just emigrate but when it comes down to it that's a massive step. I thought I'd do that if Boris Johnson became PM but then he did and I didn't. I found excuses and stayed and as a result feel just slightly diminished. Don't want the same to happen to you. Do the mental prep now. Not because you've changed your mind about him but as an insurance policy.
    Other than being proved wrong about the matter on here, I doubt it will affect my life at all if Sir Keir becomes PM. I have thousands of bets, formed from my opinions, a week; you win some, lose some, I’m used to it
    I think Keir is unlikely to be PM, because I don't think that he will be party leader at the GE. I suspect though that Johnsons enemies will proliferate, and that will be quite the motivator to GOTV no matter who the alternative is. OGH is right to look at net approvals, and the disapproval of Johnson is in pineapple pizza territory.
    image

    OGH is 100% correct on that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,903



    OGH is 100% correct on that.

    It's too simple a formula. Otherwise, we'd have won in 2017. since Corbyn had loads of people who were really happy with him, but there were even more who voted Tory because they didn't like him."Vote for us because the others are worse" is Politics 101, and you need to avoid being buried under negatives. That's especially important when tactical voting is in play.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,312

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    Do you have a reference for that prediction?
    This wasn't my source, think it came from NigelB, though memory could be falling me:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-019-0011-3

    Unfortunately, I can't dig part the abstract to anywhere that is more specific about prevailing winds, but I figured that we already get weather from most directions, so whatever prevails will be some variant of a current weather pattern. From which I picked out the 'Blocked, High pressure to the West', and it's winter light coastal flurries cousin, as fitting the bill.

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/56303-guide-to-uk-summer-setups/
    Mmmm... I can't help but think we'd have a climate similar to Prince Rupert BC without the gulf stream (same latitude, west facing coast). That's not a climate to envy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Rupert,_British_Columbia#Climate

    Edit: Or Stewart, BC at 55deg N - even worse: "Stewart is one of the cloudiest places in the world."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart,_British_Columbia#Climate
    Sounds like a reasonable start point for comparison.

    The main difference is these places are backed by the Rockies and are directly on the coast. So perhaps more comparable to Cumbria, but with the bigger hills behind, than to London or most other UK places. So we'd expect higher rainfall amounts for British Columbia than for v there future UK, but I think the general greyness, moreso than now, is as possible outcome for us if the Gulf Stream wavers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021



    OGH is 100% correct on that.

    It's too simple a formula. Otherwise, we'd have won in 2017. since Corbyn had loads of people who were really happy with him, but there were even more who voted Tory because they didn't like him."Vote for us because the others are worse" is Politics 101, and you need to avoid being buried under negatives. That's especially important when tactical voting is in play.
    I'm not sure what figures you and Stuart who liked that mistaken post are looking at but that's just categorically not true.

    Final gross approval ratings
    YouGov 47% TM vs 42% JC
    Ipsos MORI 43% TM vs 39% JC

    So TM had a 5 point or 4 point lead in gross ratings respectively. Which corresponded with a 2.4% lead in the popular vote. It is a myth that Corbyn had loads of people who were really happy with him, he had some people who were really happy with him - and they voted for him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Kantar, Germany:

    CDU/CSU 22%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 19%
    FDP 12%
    AfD 11%
    Left 7%
    Others 8%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136
    Andy_JS said:

    Kantar, Germany:

    CDU/CSU 22%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 19%
    FDP 12%
    AfD 11%
    Left 7%
    Others 8%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    SPD only 3% off the lead!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,139
    edited August 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    We covered the loss of the Gulf Stream last week. I envisioned the far Eastern peninsula of Russia, a 180 degree switch of the prevailing winds, modest summers and winters of endless beasts from the East.

    Apparently not. We most likely remain a maritime climate, winds switch more northerly, the South remains pretty much as is but Scotland gets quite a bit colder - 3.5° on averaged (over every daytime max, every nighttime min, summer and winter). But the cold winds are dry and we desertify with the odd whiff of drizzle. Extremes are rare - the UK simply becalms.

    Cornwall with a little of the south westerly mildness and a lot of the rain removed sounds tolerable.

    Do you have a reference for that prediction?
    This wasn't my source, think it came from NigelB, though memory could be falling me:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-019-0011-3

    Unfortunately, I can't dig part the abstract to anywhere that is more specific about prevailing winds, but I figured that we already get weather from most directions, so whatever prevails will be some variant of a current weather pattern. From which I picked out the 'Blocked, High pressure to the West', and it's winter light coastal flurries cousin, as fitting the bill.

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/56303-guide-to-uk-summer-setups/
    Mmmm... I can't help but think we'd have a climate similar to Prince Rupert BC without the gulf stream (same latitude, west facing coast). That's not a climate to envy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Rupert,_British_Columbia#Climate

    Edit: Or Stewart, BC at 55deg N - even worse: "Stewart is one of the cloudiest places in the world."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stewart,_British_Columbia#Climate
    Sounds like a reasonable start point for comparison.

    The main difference is these places are backed by the Rockies and are directly on the coast. So perhaps more comparable to Cumbria, but with the bigger hills behind, than to London or most other UK places. So we'd expect higher rainfall amounts for British Columbia than for v there future UK, but I think the general greyness, moreso than now, is as possible outcome for us if the Gulf Stream wavers.
    Average cloudiness across the planet derived from the Aqua satellite:
    https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/85000/85843/globalcldfr_amo_200207-201504_lrg.jpg

    I think the Faroes do pretty badly, which is what we might end up like...


    Cloudiness for last month from Modis (in a dodgy projection):
    https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/servlet/RenderData?si=1807301&cs=rgb&format=JPEG&width=3600&height=1800

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
    Sunak has definite benefits over Johnson (working on the basis that, although Romford is ubersafe, I'm otherwise the sort of ex-Conservative the party might want to win back someday). He's a politician, but not as shameless a liar as the PM. I'd be confident that he'd do his homework and not be as tawdry as the current incumbent. And I can see that he's keen on a frugal state.

    But Brexit? I don't see how he can reverse ferret sufficiently on that one. He was part of Vote Leave, he's gone along with Johnson's approach. If/when there's a need to change tack, he's not the man to do it. Hunt could, but that's not a runner with the party in its current mood. The counterexample might be Major and the Poll Tax, but he wasn't that closely linked to it in the first place and it was relatively easy to dump.
    The country voted 52% for Brexit, there has been no major shift in mood and the Tories are ahead in the polls.

    In reality the only one who could really change course on it and bring their party with them into a closer alignment with the EU again is Starmer
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,136
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
    Sunak has definite benefits over Johnson (working on the basis that, although Romford is ubersafe, I'm otherwise the sort of ex-Conservative the party might want to win back someday). He's a politician, but not as shameless a liar as the PM. I'd be confident that he'd do his homework and not be as tawdry as the current incumbent. And I can see that he's keen on a frugal state.

    But Brexit? I don't see how he can reverse ferret sufficiently on that one. He was part of Vote Leave, he's gone along with Johnson's approach. If/when there's a need to change tack, he's not the man to do it. Hunt could, but that's not a runner with the party in its current mood. The counterexample might be Major and the Poll Tax, but he wasn't that closely linked to it in the first place and it was relatively easy to dump.
    The country voted 52% for Brexit, there has been no major shift in mood and the Tories are ahead in the polls.

    In reality the only one who could really change course on it and bring their party with them into a closer alignment with the EU again is Starmer
    Starmer can’t even save a llama.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443

    Andy_JS said:

    Kantar, Germany:

    CDU/CSU 22%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 19%
    FDP 12%
    AfD 11%
    Left 7%
    Others 8%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    SPD only 3% off the lead!
    It would be amazing if they somehow pull off a win in terms of getting first place in votes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,027
    edited August 2021
    Those sex dolls are getting so convincing..

    https://twitter.com/bestofnextdoor/status/1425599583388721153?s=20




  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021
    Why has a knock off Tussauds got a Bowie figure labelled as Reagan?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,799
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Kantar, Germany:

    CDU/CSU 22%
    Greens 21%
    SPD 19%
    FDP 12%
    AfD 11%
    Left 7%
    Others 8%

    https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    SPD only 3% off the lead!
    It would be amazing if they somehow pull off a win in terms of getting first place in votes.
    It wouldn't be that amazing, they have not been the senior partner in government for 16 years. They are also still far below the 40.9% Schroder got when he won the 1998 German election the last time the SPD beat an incumbent CDU.

    The only reason they are so close is the Union picked the hapless Laschet over Soder
  • isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak would not win over London.

    He’s fiscally dry as dust. There is no evidence he is capable of the imagination and tough choices necessary to lead post-Brexit Britain.

    There are parts of London which are wealthy, fiscally dry but not that keen on Brexit.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Richmond Park, Putney, Battersea, Croydon Central, Twickenham, Kingston and Surbiton etc ie seats which voted for Cameron in 2015 but voted Labour or LD in 2019.

    Those are the seats where Sunak would likely have the greatest appeal over Boris
    Sunak has definite benefits over Johnson (working on the basis that, although Romford is ubersafe, I'm otherwise the sort of ex-Conservative the party might want to win back someday). He's a politician, but not as shameless a liar as the PM. I'd be confident that he'd do his homework and not be as tawdry as the current incumbent. And I can see that he's keen on a frugal state.

    But Brexit? I don't see how he can reverse ferret sufficiently on that one. He was part of Vote Leave, he's gone along with Johnson's approach. If/when there's a need to change tack, he's not the man to do it. Hunt could, but that's not a runner with the party in its current mood. The counterexample might be Major and the Poll Tax, but he wasn't that closely linked to it in the first place and it was relatively easy to dump.
    And over half the country never voted for it
    If they can't be arsed to vote then they can't expect their vote to count either then or now.
This discussion has been closed.