Categories
Whatever else BoJo might have done he’s failed to convince many on Brexit – politicalbetting.com
Whatever else BoJo might have done he’s failed to convince many on Brexit – politicalbetting.com
In the months after the referendum we used to cover this polling from YouGov at regular intervals. The pollster has been using the same tracker question since July 2016 and for the past two and a half years the findings have almost all been that those sampled think Brexit was wrong.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very very high levels of protection AND reduced severity. And mix n match looks to increase this even further, which looks like the approach starting in a couple of months.
Flu shots are never this effective.
I think I'm really just saying mask (non-)wearing will become a bit like the way we comport ourselves in public in general - something akin to "do you mind if I smoke" in the old days; or a higher-risk version of choosing whether or not to dive into a dirty kebab on a train. Some people will not consider the feelings of those around them, but most will conform with what others want, out of common courtesy.
I think that's what's annoying about the aggressive non-mask wearers at the moment. It's just not polite!
This is not especially complicated to understand. Both Brexit and Remain are perfectly decent, arguable, honourable positions to hold and go to deeply held convictions. In this respect it is just like Scottish independence.
Scots, having voted in an independence referendum, find that most minds haven't been changed, that the figures are much the same, the decent arguments on both sides have refined a bit but are basically the same. Salmond and Sturgeon have not changed minds much; nor has Boris or Keir or Davey over Brexit.
All it shows is that we should never have got so deeply in to an integrationist EU policy for 40 years without a series of referenda as we went along.
As for Scotland, the big time integration happened before anyone thought of giving plebs like most of us a vote so different historic considerations apply.
What is clear is that with Tory voters overwhelmingly pro Brexit still and most Labour and LD voters still saying it was wrong if Starmer forms a government with the LDs after the next general election we will have a closer regulatory alignment to the single market and customs union. If the Tories win again though we will stay as we are
And I was told here at the time as one of the very few Leave voters on this site vehemently opposed to May's deal that I was wrong to support Baker etc actions as there was no way Baker etc had the numbers in Parliament to win.
They didn't. But the Remainers gave them the numbers. I am very grateful to them.
And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?
What have all your ranting and ravings from Twitter won you?
Unlock but maintain social distancing and mask wearing is Step 3. That had already been done, there's exceptionally little (nightclubs only?) that is completely verboten in Step 3 as opposed to just needing distancing.
The whole point of Step 4 is getting rid of distancing and masks and about time too.
Doing it by stealth, diversionary tactics, factual inexactitude and manipulation with a bit of bullying can't work reliably.
So Remain failed from 1972 to 2015, because it failed to win hearts and minds, and failed to set a decent and truthful vision before a properly sceptical public. The Remain campaign was worse; and the Remain tactics post referendum deserve their own courses in management, business studies, politics and history degrees - "How to turn a setback into a catastrophe."
The REACT study for example (don't think that's used for PHE estimates, but I could be wrong) sends you a test at random and asks for your vaccination status. So you include vaccinated and unvaccinated and can compare incidence in the two groups.
The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won. They said they didn't want ever closer union and they campaigned against it and they won a majority to ensure we no longer had any future in it.
It was the Remainers who were most dishonest in the referendum. They couldn't bring themselves to actually campaign for Ever Closer Union. They couldn't bring themselves to campaign for a Federal EU.
The British public were entirely correct to "rip us out of Europe" when even the Europhiles couldn't be arsed to campaign for Europe, to campaign for Ever Closer Union. Instead pretending that David Cameron had abolished it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/57732043
After doing so well last year, the reduced biosecurity approach, especially now with Indian variant, doesn't seem to work...
This is the argument that won the scientists over AIUI - exit wave in the summer when the NHS can cope vs exit wave in autumn when it can't. A uni friend of mine said getting rid of masks and maximising acquired immunity among the "won't get a vaccine" cohort in the summer would probably be a net benefit in the data models, again something he says will have made the top scientists swing behind reopening on the 19th.
My take is that once Javid took April 2022 as a full reopening date off the table on day one the scientists had no choice but to go for July 19th and they can't easily mouth off to the press about an alternative because they all know that an autumn full reopening would be a disaster for the NHS. Talking about April 2022 as a potential date for reopening would just make them look completely insane so they can't talk about that either so they're left with only one choice - support July 19th or keep quiet.
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1412327373740167168?s=20
Erhhh......not sure he fully understands the math of mass vaccination / antibody prevalence. In this numpties world there is an infinite number of susceptible people. Do these people never read anything about how this stuff works? Or are they just morons? From the same camp of those saying we could have 7 million new infections in this wave.
Voltaire's quip about the Holy Roman Empire applies just as much to the Liberal Democrats.
Still, as you say, your side "won". Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn "won" and so did Vladimir Putin. The habitual liars won. Well done.
Ha ha ha - nice one!
I've made the point before that, ultimately, the Remain side was led by Tories. Cameron and Osborne. It would have been interesting to see what a Remain campaign led by people who didn't ultimately have to answer to the Conservative faithful would have done differently. I suspect the benefits of ever closer union would have been much more explicit.
Or if Cameron had the cojones to face down the right wing wreckers that have got us where we are today.
The entire point of the conversation with northern_monkey is that "Ever Closer Union" is literally the raison d'etre of the EU and something they never kept a secret even before we joined or before the 1975 referendum. Yet here you are now pretending that it was 'an aspiration shared by only a few Euro federalists and was massively on the wane as a guiding principle.'
Deep down in your heart even you don't support Ever Closer Union it seems, you're unwilling to even attempt to argue in favour of it instead lying and casting aspersions that its not real or only a fringe aspiration. Which is why your side of habitual liars deservedly lost.
The Conservative and Unionists were defeated by the Little Englanders.
And now we are paying the price
Vaccine status is compared for those who report symptoms and get a test on that basis, between those who test positive and those who test negative. It's clever because it controls for differential health seeking and testing access, as it only compares those who sought (and got) tests.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1.full-text
There still could be some biases, of course. For example, vaccine status might influence when people seek tests after onset of symptoms and that might affect likelihood of a positive. I suspect the random sample campaigns may also have some analysis.
I do think Moran is a bit of an outlier within the party on this though.
I was assured it would peak at barely over 200 and definitely not more than 250.
All Citroen Peugeot and Vauxhall ev small vans and passenger cars will be produced at Ellesmere Port
As has been pointed out many times, Boris is incredibly “lucky” that covid has masked the disruption of leaving.
Boris has no coherent plan to leverage the “upside of Brexit”, nor does he aim to bring people together around a unifying vision of post Brexit, as it suits him to use it as a dividing line.
We all - Brexiters and Remainers - await a proper PM and/or government who is up to the job.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544
The voters will not be so split then, but are more likely to be calling for Johnson´s head on a stick.
Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
and proportionate for businesses and people for the whole of this winter, that is, even if there may be an opportunity to release further when the wave abates in a month or two time. So, here's the sort of thing I would do at a high level:
- Open all venues at full seating capacity but limit density in dedicated standing areas (e.g. pop concerts, dance floors, bar areas).
- Keep pubs as primarily seated, with bar for seating and ordering, discourage vertical milling.
- Retain some additional limits on close proximity entertainment from theatre to adult entertainment venues
- Retain masks on public transport, close contact and medical treatment services only
- Advise contact and travel reduction in high incidence areas
- Retain the informal idea of social distancing where possible
- End full contact isolation, but replace with a compulsory 'test negative periodically before mixing regime', same for schoolchildren, adults and inbound travel (except limited red zone).
- With this new regime actually broaden a little who is considered a contact and take any opportunities to improve venue tracking.
- Informal advice not to attend mass entertainment except by negative test, double vaccination or prior infection (e.g. an individually voluntary passport scheme)
The hope would be that, though we could retain this for a good long while if we had to, there would actually be an opportunity to drop much of the remaining restriction in Autumn as the summer exit wave subsides.
Terrifying to think she stood for the leadership.
The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."
"I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.
"There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."
From the BBC live feed
88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.
There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
At least 150 Americans were shot dead over the Independence Day bank holiday weekend as the US suffered its latest bout of violence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/at-least-150-americans-shot-dead-over-independence-day-weekend-2kd705wmp [£££]
How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?
Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
That’s not especially democratic.
And you accuse others of sneering.
Most people now disagree with you.
By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
Successive governments, since Thatcher (and even hers in its later times) took the line that the EU was a shitshow, but that the positives just about outweighed the negatives. Even Blair, who was the most positive in my lifetime, I think, preferred not to talk about it. There was never, in my lifetime, a real positive case made for being in.
The so-called majority against Brexit that has been put on thread headers on this site for about five years and counting now pre-dates the last general election. It didn't prevent the 80 seat majority, so no rapid about-turn necessary.
And we won't know if leaving was the right thing to do for 2-3 years. Certainly not economically, and possibly not politically.
Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.
It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.
The other thing I've been wondering about is where we are now on the old died from/died with dichotomy. Presumably, with so many positive tests at the moment, it's inevitable that we're going to get a lot of people dying within 28 days of a positive - that levels we're looking look at first glance to be very similar to the death rates you would expect within a population that large. Though I suppose one also needs to adjust for the ages of people testing positive, within which population you would expect background level of deaths to be much lower.
"This ... happening" must refer to "posting". Unless it also means doing it in the cast iron thing painted red down the road, as well, which is not a usual synthesis - it's either Twatter or RM.
effectiveness against dying of the disease approx 100%
effectiveness against hospitalisation was 98%, with Delta it is 94%
effectiveness against infection was 94%, with Delta it is 64%
Source Israel data https://www.politico.eu/article/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-less-effective-at-preventing-coronavirus-cases-study/
Given you are infected (but double jabbed), effectiveness against transmission (low viral load) is x%.
If x% is 50%, then effectiveness against transmission of Delta is
1- (1-0.64)x(1-0.5) i,e, 82%.
If x is 80% then effectiveness is 93%.
But I think that x is not yet known.
After Boris postponed Stage 4 I said he's lost my support. But looking at the Lib Dems, especially but not just Moran, I couldn't see a liberal party I could support there either which is a shame, there's been a real vacancy on the liberal/authoritarian spectrum and the Lib Dems have just vacated that space entirely it seems.
Now that Stage 4 is going ahead, I'm happy to start supporting Boris again. So long as he sticks with it and doesn't become authoritarian again.
Best case scenario is continued British out-performance and you'll just end up with remain voters still saying it was wrong, but not saying it very loudly.
https://twitter.com/emilyrees_eu/status/1412323033784766467
That bridge has been crossed.
I don’t believe in rejoining. At least not given the current circumstances.
As usual you suggest your political opponents are mendacious while Boris is widely considered the biggest liar in Westminster.
Treble (locked) G&Ts all round!
Israel data is at the same stage as when the UK had that stat of 1/3 dying had been double jabbed....when it was from a dataset showing 12 in 52 people.