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Whatever else BoJo might have done he’s failed to convince many on Brexit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2021 in General
imageWhatever else BoJo might have done he’s failed to convince many on Brexit – politicalbetting.com

In the months after the referendum we used to cover this polling from YouGov at regular intervals. The pollster has been using the same tracker question since July 2016 and for the past two and a half years the findings have almost all been that those sampled think Brexit was wrong.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Test
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Test

    You pass the test OGH.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,092
    edited July 2021
    But will you have to isolate for a positive test?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very very high levels of protection AND reduced severity. And mix n match looks to increase this even further, which looks like the approach starting in a couple of months.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,092

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    That is fair. I should say "not completely effective".

    I think I'm really just saying mask (non-)wearing will become a bit like the way we comport ourselves in public in general - something akin to "do you mind if I smoke" in the old days; or a higher-risk version of choosing whether or not to dive into a dirty kebab on a train. Some people will not consider the feelings of those around them, but most will conform with what others want, out of common courtesy.

    I think that's what's annoying about the aggressive non-mask wearers at the moment. It's just not polite!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    Thanks for pointing out the polling facts. Neither side has done much to persuade the other to change its mind.

    This is not especially complicated to understand. Both Brexit and Remain are perfectly decent, arguable, honourable positions to hold and go to deeply held convictions. In this respect it is just like Scottish independence.

    Scots, having voted in an independence referendum, find that most minds haven't been changed, that the figures are much the same, the decent arguments on both sides have refined a bit but are basically the same. Salmond and Sturgeon have not changed minds much; nor has Boris or Keir or Davey over Brexit.

    All it shows is that we should never have got so deeply in to an integrationist EU policy for 40 years without a series of referenda as we went along.

    As for Scotland, the big time integration happened before anyone thought of giving plebs like most of us a vote so different historic considerations apply.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2021
    Actually that poll shows we remain equally divided, 42% say Brexit was right and 46% say it was wrong.

    What is clear is that with Tory voters overwhelmingly pro Brexit still and most Labour and LD voters still saying it was wrong if Starmer forms a government with the LDs after the next general election we will have a closer regulatory alignment to the single market and customs union. If the Tories win again though we will stay as we are
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2021

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    I'm exceptionally glad that they did make that mistake though.

    And I was told here at the time as one of the very few Leave voters on this site vehemently opposed to May's deal that I was wrong to support Baker etc actions as there was no way Baker etc had the numbers in Parliament to win.

    They didn't. But the Remainers gave them the numbers. I am very grateful to them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    That is fair. I should say "not completely effective".

    I think I'm really just saying mask (non-)wearing will become a bit like the way we comport ourselves in public in general - something akin to "do you mind if I smoke" in the old days; or a higher-risk version of choosing whether or not to dive into a dirty kebab on a train. Some people will not consider the feelings of those around them, but most will conform with what others want, out of common courtesy.

    I think that's what's annoying about the aggressive non-mask wearers at the moment. It's just not polite!
    I personally would have stuck with masks on public transport for the reason you describe. I am not convinced in the grand overall scheme of things it is the difference between zero covid and millions of cases (given you can go to the pub or the gym maskless), but it makes some difference and I think in the current circumstances is polite and a minor inconvenience.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
  • GnudGnud Posts: 298

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    I thought the 80% effectiveness figure was against symptoms, not infection.

    How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Won enough hearts and minds to win the referendum and win an eighty seat majority.

    What have all your ranting and ravings from Twitter won you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    Both Whitty and Vallance said at the presser yesterday that people absolutely should continue to wear masks in enclosed crowded spaces. Just minutes after clown stood inbetween them and said that such mask wearing was not required.

    If we unlocked as they are doing, but maintained the requirement for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, then we tick most boxes without saying let it rip. Hard to say "the scientists say they aren't needed" when they stand there at the announcement that they aren't needed and say that actually they are.

    Maintained social distancing indoors? Are you a complete numpty? That's the major change in step 4, removal of distancing restrictions indoors, it allows for companies to run at 100% capacity again and actually, you know, make money.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    Both Whitty and Vallance said at the presser yesterday that people absolutely should continue to wear masks in enclosed crowded spaces. Just minutes after clown stood inbetween them and said that such mask wearing was not required.

    If we unlocked as they are doing, but maintained the requirement for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, then we tick most boxes without saying let it rip. Hard to say "the scientists say they aren't needed" when they stand there at the announcement that they aren't needed and say that actually they are.

    Maintained social distancing indoors? Are you a complete numpty? That's the major change in step 4, removal of distancing restrictions indoors, it allows for companies to run at 100% capacity again and actually, you know, make money.
    Exactly.

    Unlock but maintain social distancing and mask wearing is Step 3. That had already been done, there's exceptionally little (nightclubs only?) that is completely verboten in Step 3 as opposed to just needing distancing.

    The whole point of Step 4 is getting rid of distancing and masks and about time too.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Gnud said:

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    I thought the 80% effectiveness figure was against symptoms, not infection.

    How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?

    I thought the analysis was against infection, from the random testing.

    The REACT study for example (don't think that's used for PHE estimates, but I could be wrong) sends you a test at random and asks for your vaccination status. So you include vaccinated and unvaccinated and can compare incidence in the two groups.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The government is being forced to subsidise car manufacturers to keep them open post-Brexit.

    We all know this.

    Car manufacturing was always going to become less profitable post Brexit. Add them to the list along with fishers etc, who are also in receipt of various bungs.

    Let’s save £350m a week and spend it on no-longer productive business instead!

    Not quite - the Government is subsidising car manufacturers at a time of total structural change in that industry.

    When everything is up in the air you need to offer subsidies to keep both the existing companies and encourage new ones.

    I suspect Tesla is regretting building their factory in Germany.
    Funny how there’s always non-Brexit reasons.
    This is an industry where subsidies have always exists - no-one has built or modernised a car factory in decades without incentives to do so.
    The govt has always subsidised car manufacturers. Yet, all of a sudden, it’s an issue to diehard remainers. Labour bailed out British Leyland in the seventies. Money was given to Nissan, Honda and Toyota to come here in the eighties. Money has been given to Ford, BMW, Vauxhall, Nissan, JLR and others As far back as I can remember to Help them build new models locally. Yet suddenly it’s an issue to some people as if it has never happened before.
    Funny how it’s happening all at once, though, innit.
    Yeah because the industry is moving from petrol and diesel to electrical powertrains en masse. I guess if you want to hack a Brexit narrative in it then a lot of that is because of VW and their dodgy diesels which has forced the whole industry to dump diesel 10 years earlier than expected.
    I hadn’t realised (or had forgotten), but the gilet jaune movement - analogous in some ways to Brexitism - was sparked by a hamfisted attempt by Macron to raise steep taxes on diesel.
    Honestly mate, you need to move on from Brexit. I mean you're a kiwi right, I don't even know why you care so much?
    As a quasi-outsider I can see perhaps more clearly how deranged it is. Besides, like any historical phenomenon it is open to endless interpretations.

    You might as well ask why people don’t move on from the French Revolution.
    It is daft. We lost a lot through it. In years to come people will realise how valuable freedom of movement was. However it is done and Blair is correct in saying we need to make it work if we aim to rejoin as we need to do so in a strong position.
    Blair is correct.
    Although I don’t think we should rejoin.
    At least not to “this” EU.

    In fact I think we need to make a “better” EU.
    That would have been much easier inside the institution, but it would also have required some independence of thought and coherence of policy-making by successive governments.

    The sole benefit that Brexit provides is the pressure - PERHAPS - to avoid complacency in our economic and geopolitical settlement.
    We have tried before to remake the EU in what the UK thought it should be, but I think it clear that that was not the vision of many of the other European leaders. So we left. We will miss many of the good things - ease of access to the markets, freedom of travel and so on. Other things less so, but we have made our bed and now must lie in it. Like with Covid its best to ignore the shrill on both sides of the debate (zero-covid vs let it rip), and try to build a new path.
    Something we often miss on PB is that many people just don't care. For them its done. They rarely think about politics. The audience on Question Time is not the population of the UK, its a very special subset.
    No, I don’t think we did “try”.

    The key moment was after the financial crisis, but neither Cameron nor Osborne were especially interested, and the Tory party at large had stopped thinking anything about the EU except as a bogeyman “other”,
    Nobody did which is why ultimately Britain made the right choice.

    Even Blair and Brown when push came to shove treated Europe as other. They never even tried to have a referendum to join the Euro, spending political capital on going to war alongside the Americans instead, despite all Blair's pretensions of taking Britain into the centre of Europe.

    Britain was never philosophically interested in ever closer union and ultimately a federal single European nation state. The EU is. So ultimately we were the wrong fit for the project, Britain being in the EU is like someone who wants an ample supply of chocolate cakes joining Weightwatchers, it just didn't work.
    There was a thread on Twitter the other day in response to one of the GB News presenters rattling on about how all we ever wanted was to be a member of a trading bloc and didn’t want the political union.

    I can’t be arsed to find the thread, but the writer showed reams and reams of newspaper articles about the project from it’s earliest days, through the referendum when we joined, contemporary interviews with politicians, etc, etc, etc, and it has always been clear, totally unambiguous, even when we joined, that ever closer union was the goal.

    For anyone to say that this ever closer union was something we weren’t aware of, that the perfidious EU was trying to foist it upon us after we joined a simple trading bloc, is wrong.
    It was more perfidious Albion than perfidious EU.

    The EU never kept a secret of the fact they wanted Ever Closer Union and the EU's evolution into being a Federal nation state has never been a secret.

    But in the UK over the past 35 years, arguably from Delors speech to the TUC onwards, the EEC/EU and the UK have drifted apart.

    Its ended up suiting both sides in the UK to rewrite history to claim that the EU is/was about economics rather than a nascent federation. For Eurosceptics it suited them to pretend we'd joined a trade bloc and it had changed - its true it had changed but that it would change was never a secret when we joined. For Europhiles it suited them to pretend the EU is still primarily a trade bloc, because they knew that the majority of Britons now don't want ever closer union and a federal Europe.

    You can't pull the wool over people's eyes for long though. Europhiles needed to make an argument for Ever Closer Union, not pretend it didn't exist or that Dave had abolished it. They didn't, so they lost and deservedly so.
    I think perfidious Albion hits the nail on the head. The behaviour of the right-wing in this country, since free market fundamentalism became the lodestar of Conservative thought, sickens me. They have ripped us out of Europe, and they will happily tear the union asunder and throw NI to the wolves, in their pursuit of unfettered, amoral profit without responsibility.
    Way to miss the point.

    The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won. They said they didn't want ever closer union and they campaigned against it and they won a majority to ensure we no longer had any future in it.

    It was the Remainers who were most dishonest in the referendum. They couldn't bring themselves to actually campaign for Ever Closer Union. They couldn't bring themselves to campaign for a Federal EU.

    The British public were entirely correct to "rip us out of Europe" when even the Europhiles couldn't be arsed to campaign for Europe, to campaign for Ever Closer Union. Instead pretending that David Cameron had abolished it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    BBC News - England v Pakistan: Seven positive Covid-19 tests force naming of new squad for hosts
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/57732043

    After doing so well last year, the reduced biosecurity approach, especially now with Indian variant, doesn't seem to work...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    Personally feel the more egregious error was voting down all of the compromise amendments from Boles, Clarke etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    NEW: Indonesia reports 31,189 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 728 deaths
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    Both Whitty and Vallance said at the presser yesterday that people absolutely should continue to wear masks in enclosed crowded spaces. Just minutes after clown stood inbetween them and said that such mask wearing was not required.

    If we unlocked as they are doing, but maintained the requirement for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, then we tick most boxes without saying let it rip. Hard to say "the scientists say they aren't needed" when they stand there at the announcement that they aren't needed and say that actually they are.

    Maintained social distancing indoors? Are you a complete numpty? That's the major change in step 4, removal of distancing restrictions indoors, it allows for companies to run at 100% capacity again and actually, you know, make money.
    Exactly.

    Unlock but maintain social distancing and mask wearing is Step 3. That had already been done, there's exceptionally little (nightclubs only?) that is completely verboten in Step 3 as opposed to just needing distancing.

    The whole point of Step 4 is getting rid of distancing and masks and about time too.
    It's exactly the kind of unthinking analysis I've come to expect from Rochdale, sadly. In his world we're all starving to death because supermarkets said they wouldn't put prices up and the whole haulage industry went bankrupt overnight.

    This is the argument that won the scientists over AIUI - exit wave in the summer when the NHS can cope vs exit wave in autumn when it can't. A uni friend of mine said getting rid of masks and maximising acquired immunity among the "won't get a vaccine" cohort in the summer would probably be a net benefit in the data models, again something he says will have made the top scientists swing behind reopening on the 19th.

    My take is that once Javid took April 2022 as a full reopening date off the table on day one the scientists had no choice but to go for July 19th and they can't easily mouth off to the press about an alternative because they all know that an autumn full reopening would be a disaster for the NHS. Talking about April 2022 as a potential date for reopening would just make them look completely insane so they can't talk about that either so they're left with only one choice - support July 19th or keep quiet.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    They simply thought they could overturn the vote. They were convinced they could get a so-called people’s vote and win it. They were idiots. They played, and lost, a high stakes game.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    This is the gamble. If infections are still increasing at current rate then, that’s two weeks away from 200,00 which at current ratio means 4,000 daily hospitalisations soon after - January levels. So it really does have to to be peaking by that point to avoid more lockdown

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1412327373740167168?s=20

    Erhhh......not sure he fully understands the math of mass vaccination / antibody prevalence. In this numpties world there is an infinite number of susceptible people. Do these people never read anything about how this stuff works? Or are they just morons? From the same camp of those saying we could have 7 million new infections in this wave.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,153
    HYUFD said:

    Actually that poll shows we remain equally divided, 42% say Brexit was right and 46% say it was wrong.

    What is clear is that with Tory voters overwhelmingly pro Brexit still and most Labour and LD voters still saying it was wrong if Starmer forms a government with the LDs after the next general election we will have a closer regulatory alignment to the single market and customs union. If the Tories win again though we will stay as we are

    42 is the same as 46?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The so-called "Liberal Democrat" Layla Moran on Sky banging on about Long Covid due to not having illiberal restrictions on Covid anymore.

    Voltaire's quip about the Holy Roman Empire applies just as much to the Liberal Democrats.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The government is being forced to subsidise car manufacturers to keep them open post-Brexit.

    We all know this.

    Car manufacturing was always going to become less profitable post Brexit. Add them to the list along with fishers etc, who are also in receipt of various bungs.

    Let’s save £350m a week and spend it on no-longer productive business instead!

    Not quite - the Government is subsidising car manufacturers at a time of total structural change in that industry.

    When everything is up in the air you need to offer subsidies to keep both the existing companies and encourage new ones.

    I suspect Tesla is regretting building their factory in Germany.
    Funny how there’s always non-Brexit reasons.
    This is an industry where subsidies have always exists - no-one has built or modernised a car factory in decades without incentives to do so.
    The govt has always subsidised car manufacturers. Yet, all of a sudden, it’s an issue to diehard remainers. Labour bailed out British Leyland in the seventies. Money was given to Nissan, Honda and Toyota to come here in the eighties. Money has been given to Ford, BMW, Vauxhall, Nissan, JLR and others As far back as I can remember to Help them build new models locally. Yet suddenly it’s an issue to some people as if it has never happened before.
    Funny how it’s happening all at once, though, innit.
    Yeah because the industry is moving from petrol and diesel to electrical powertrains en masse. I guess if you want to hack a Brexit narrative in it then a lot of that is because of VW and their dodgy diesels which has forced the whole industry to dump diesel 10 years earlier than expected.
    I hadn’t realised (or had forgotten), but the gilet jaune movement - analogous in some ways to Brexitism - was sparked by a hamfisted attempt by Macron to raise steep taxes on diesel.
    Honestly mate, you need to move on from Brexit. I mean you're a kiwi right, I don't even know why you care so much?
    As a quasi-outsider I can see perhaps more clearly how deranged it is. Besides, like any historical phenomenon it is open to endless interpretations.

    You might as well ask why people don’t move on from the French Revolution.
    It is daft. We lost a lot through it. In years to come people will realise how valuable freedom of movement was. However it is done and Blair is correct in saying we need to make it work if we aim to rejoin as we need to do so in a strong position.
    Blair is correct.
    Although I don’t think we should rejoin.
    At least not to “this” EU.

    In fact I think we need to make a “better” EU.
    That would have been much easier inside the institution, but it would also have required some independence of thought and coherence of policy-making by successive governments.

    The sole benefit that Brexit provides is the pressure - PERHAPS - to avoid complacency in our economic and geopolitical settlement.
    We have tried before to remake the EU in what the UK thought it should be, but I think it clear that that was not the vision of many of the other European leaders. So we left. We will miss many of the good things - ease of access to the markets, freedom of travel and so on. Other things less so, but we have made our bed and now must lie in it. Like with Covid its best to ignore the shrill on both sides of the debate (zero-covid vs let it rip), and try to build a new path.
    Something we often miss on PB is that many people just don't care. For them its done. They rarely think about politics. The audience on Question Time is not the population of the UK, its a very special subset.
    No, I don’t think we did “try”.

    The key moment was after the financial crisis, but neither Cameron nor Osborne were especially interested, and the Tory party at large had stopped thinking anything about the EU except as a bogeyman “other”,
    Nobody did which is why ultimately Britain made the right choice.

    Even Blair and Brown when push came to shove treated Europe as other. They never even tried to have a referendum to join the Euro, spending political capital on going to war alongside the Americans instead, despite all Blair's pretensions of taking Britain into the centre of Europe.

    Britain was never philosophically interested in ever closer union and ultimately a federal single European nation state. The EU is. So ultimately we were the wrong fit for the project, Britain being in the EU is like someone who wants an ample supply of chocolate cakes joining Weightwatchers, it just didn't work.
    There was a thread on Twitter the other day in response to one of the GB News presenters rattling on about how all we ever wanted was to be a member of a trading bloc and didn’t want the political union.

    I can’t be arsed to find the thread, but the writer showed reams and reams of newspaper articles about the project from it’s earliest days, through the referendum when we joined, contemporary interviews with politicians, etc, etc, etc, and it has always been clear, totally unambiguous, even when we joined, that ever closer union was the goal.

    For anyone to say that this ever closer union was something we weren’t aware of, that the perfidious EU was trying to foist it upon us after we joined a simple trading bloc, is wrong.
    It was more perfidious Albion than perfidious EU.

    The EU never kept a secret of the fact they wanted Ever Closer Union and the EU's evolution into being a Federal nation state has never been a secret.

    But in the UK over the past 35 years, arguably from Delors speech to the TUC onwards, the EEC/EU and the UK have drifted apart.

    Its ended up suiting both sides in the UK to rewrite history to claim that the EU is/was about economics rather than a nascent federation. For Eurosceptics it suited them to pretend we'd joined a trade bloc and it had changed - its true it had changed but that it would change was never a secret when we joined. For Europhiles it suited them to pretend the EU is still primarily a trade bloc, because they knew that the majority of Britons now don't want ever closer union and a federal Europe.

    You can't pull the wool over people's eyes for long though. Europhiles needed to make an argument for Ever Closer Union, not pretend it didn't exist or that Dave had abolished it. They didn't, so they lost and deservedly so.
    I think perfidious Albion hits the nail on the head. The behaviour of the right-wing in this country, since free market fundamentalism became the lodestar of Conservative thought, sickens me. They have ripped us out of Europe, and they will happily tear the union asunder and throw NI to the wolves, in their pursuit of unfettered, amoral profit without responsibility.
    Way to miss the point.

    The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won. They said they didn't want ever closer union and they campaigned against it and they won a majority to ensure we no longer had any future in it.

    It was the Remainers who were most dishonest in the referendum. They couldn't bring themselves to actually campaign for Ever Closer Union. They couldn't bring themselves to campaign for a Federal EU.

    The British public were entirely correct to "rip us out of Europe" when even the Europhiles couldn't be arsed to campaign for Europe, to campaign for Ever Closer Union. Instead pretending that David Cameron had abolished it.
    If you think "The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum", you are even more gullible idiot than I thought, or a complete liar. As you as an apologist for Johnson I suspect it is the latter. You are also too stupid to understand that "ever closer union" was an aspiration shared by only a few Euro federalists and was massively on the wane as a guiding principle. If you think the French are about to go into full political union with the rest of Europe, particularly Germany you really are as thick as a plank.

    Still, as you say, your side "won". Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn "won" and so did Vladimir Putin. The habitual liars won. Well done.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    @MarqueeMark does not strike me as one of life’s great wonderers.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The government is being forced to subsidise car manufacturers to keep them open post-Brexit.

    We all know this.

    Car manufacturing was always going to become less profitable post Brexit. Add them to the list along with fishers etc, who are also in receipt of various bungs.

    Let’s save £350m a week and spend it on no-longer productive business instead!

    Not quite - the Government is subsidising car manufacturers at a time of total structural change in that industry.

    When everything is up in the air you need to offer subsidies to keep both the existing companies and encourage new ones.

    I suspect Tesla is regretting building their factory in Germany.
    Funny how there’s always non-Brexit reasons.
    This is an industry where subsidies have always exists - no-one has built or modernised a car factory in decades without incentives to do so.
    The govt has always subsidised car manufacturers. Yet, all of a sudden, it’s an issue to diehard remainers. Labour bailed out British Leyland in the seventies. Money was given to Nissan, Honda and Toyota to come here in the eighties. Money has been given to Ford, BMW, Vauxhall, Nissan, JLR and others As far back as I can remember to Help them build new models locally. Yet suddenly it’s an issue to some people as if it has never happened before.
    Funny how it’s happening all at once, though, innit.
    Yeah because the industry is moving from petrol and diesel to electrical powertrains en masse. I guess if you want to hack a Brexit narrative in it then a lot of that is because of VW and their dodgy diesels which has forced the whole industry to dump diesel 10 years earlier than expected.
    I hadn’t realised (or had forgotten), but the gilet jaune movement - analogous in some ways to Brexitism - was sparked by a hamfisted attempt by Macron to raise steep taxes on diesel.
    Honestly mate, you need to move on from Brexit. I mean you're a kiwi right, I don't even know why you care so much?
    As a quasi-outsider I can see perhaps more clearly how deranged it is. Besides, like any historical phenomenon it is open to endless interpretations.

    You might as well ask why people don’t move on from the French Revolution.
    It is daft. We lost a lot through it. In years to come people will realise how valuable freedom of movement was. However it is done and Blair is correct in saying we need to make it work if we aim to rejoin as we need to do so in a strong position.
    Blair is correct.
    Although I don’t think we should rejoin.
    At least not to “this” EU.

    In fact I think we need to make a “better” EU.
    That would have been much easier inside the institution, but it would also have required some independence of thought and coherence of policy-making by successive governments.

    The sole benefit that Brexit provides is the pressure - PERHAPS - to avoid complacency in our economic and geopolitical settlement.
    We have tried before to remake the EU in what the UK thought it should be, but I think it clear that that was not the vision of many of the other European leaders. So we left. We will miss many of the good things - ease of access to the markets, freedom of travel and so on. Other things less so, but we have made our bed and now must lie in it. Like with Covid its best to ignore the shrill on both sides of the debate (zero-covid vs let it rip), and try to build a new path.
    Something we often miss on PB is that many people just don't care. For them its done. They rarely think about politics. The audience on Question Time is not the population of the UK, its a very special subset.
    No, I don’t think we did “try”.

    The key moment was after the financial crisis, but neither Cameron nor Osborne were especially interested, and the Tory party at large had stopped thinking anything about the EU except as a bogeyman “other”,
    Nobody did which is why ultimately Britain made the right choice.

    Even Blair and Brown when push came to shove treated Europe as other. They never even tried to have a referendum to join the Euro, spending political capital on going to war alongside the Americans instead, despite all Blair's pretensions of taking Britain into the centre of Europe.

    Britain was never philosophically interested in ever closer union and ultimately a federal single European nation state. The EU is. So ultimately we were the wrong fit for the project, Britain being in the EU is like someone who wants an ample supply of chocolate cakes joining Weightwatchers, it just didn't work.
    There was a thread on Twitter the other day in response to one of the GB News presenters rattling on about how all we ever wanted was to be a member of a trading bloc and didn’t want the political union.

    I can’t be arsed to find the thread, but the writer showed reams and reams of newspaper articles about the project from it’s earliest days, through the referendum when we joined, contemporary interviews with politicians, etc, etc, etc, and it has always been clear, totally unambiguous, even when we joined, that ever closer union was the goal.

    For anyone to say that this ever closer union was something we weren’t aware of, that the perfidious EU was trying to foist it upon us after we joined a simple trading bloc, is wrong.
    It was more perfidious Albion than perfidious EU.

    The EU never kept a secret of the fact they wanted Ever Closer Union and the EU's evolution into being a Federal nation state has never been a secret.

    But in the UK over the past 35 years, arguably from Delors speech to the TUC onwards, the EEC/EU and the UK have drifted apart.

    Its ended up suiting both sides in the UK to rewrite history to claim that the EU is/was about economics rather than a nascent federation. For Eurosceptics it suited them to pretend we'd joined a trade bloc and it had changed - its true it had changed but that it would change was never a secret when we joined. For Europhiles it suited them to pretend the EU is still primarily a trade bloc, because they knew that the majority of Britons now don't want ever closer union and a federal Europe.

    You can't pull the wool over people's eyes for long though. Europhiles needed to make an argument for Ever Closer Union, not pretend it didn't exist or that Dave had abolished it. They didn't, so they lost and deservedly so.
    I think perfidious Albion hits the nail on the head. The behaviour of the right-wing in this country, since free market fundamentalism became the lodestar of Conservative thought, sickens me. They have ripped us out of Europe, and they will happily tear the union asunder and throw NI to the wolves, in their pursuit of unfettered, amoral profit without responsibility.
    Way to miss the point.

    The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won. They said they didn't want ever closer union and they campaigned against it and they won a majority to ensure we no longer had any future in it.

    It was the Remainers who were most dishonest in the referendum. They couldn't bring themselves to actually campaign for Ever Closer Union. They couldn't bring themselves to campaign for a Federal EU.

    The British public were entirely correct to "rip us out of Europe" when even the Europhiles couldn't be arsed to campaign for Europe, to campaign for Ever Closer Union. Instead pretending that David Cameron had abolished it.
    'The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won.'

    Ha ha ha - nice one!

    I've made the point before that, ultimately, the Remain side was led by Tories. Cameron and Osborne. It would have been interesting to see what a Remain campaign led by people who didn't ultimately have to answer to the Conservative faithful would have done differently. I suspect the benefits of ever closer union would have been much more explicit.

    Or if Cameron had the cojones to face down the right wing wreckers that have got us where we are today.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    The government is being forced to subsidise car manufacturers to keep them open post-Brexit.

    We all know this.

    Car manufacturing was always going to become less profitable post Brexit. Add them to the list along with fishers etc, who are also in receipt of various bungs.

    Let’s save £350m a week and spend it on no-longer productive business instead!

    Not quite - the Government is subsidising car manufacturers at a time of total structural change in that industry.

    When everything is up in the air you need to offer subsidies to keep both the existing companies and encourage new ones.

    I suspect Tesla is regretting building their factory in Germany.
    Funny how there’s always non-Brexit reasons.
    This is an industry where subsidies have always exists - no-one has built or modernised a car factory in decades without incentives to do so.
    The govt has always subsidised car manufacturers. Yet, all of a sudden, it’s an issue to diehard remainers. Labour bailed out British Leyland in the seventies. Money was given to Nissan, Honda and Toyota to come here in the eighties. Money has been given to Ford, BMW, Vauxhall, Nissan, JLR and others As far back as I can remember to Help them build new models locally. Yet suddenly it’s an issue to some people as if it has never happened before.
    Funny how it’s happening all at once, though, innit.
    Yeah because the industry is moving from petrol and diesel to electrical powertrains en masse. I guess if you want to hack a Brexit narrative in it then a lot of that is because of VW and their dodgy diesels which has forced the whole industry to dump diesel 10 years earlier than expected.
    I hadn’t realised (or had forgotten), but the gilet jaune movement - analogous in some ways to Brexitism - was sparked by a hamfisted attempt by Macron to raise steep taxes on diesel.
    Honestly mate, you need to move on from Brexit. I mean you're a kiwi right, I don't even know why you care so much?
    As a quasi-outsider I can see perhaps more clearly how deranged it is. Besides, like any historical phenomenon it is open to endless interpretations.

    You might as well ask why people don’t move on from the French Revolution.
    It is daft. We lost a lot through it. In years to come people will realise how valuable freedom of movement was. However it is done and Blair is correct in saying we need to make it work if we aim to rejoin as we need to do so in a strong position.
    Blair is correct.
    Although I don’t think we should rejoin.
    At least not to “this” EU.

    In fact I think we need to make a “better” EU.
    That would have been much easier inside the institution, but it would also have required some independence of thought and coherence of policy-making by successive governments.

    The sole benefit that Brexit provides is the pressure - PERHAPS - to avoid complacency in our economic and geopolitical settlement.
    We have tried before to remake the EU in what the UK thought it should be, but I think it clear that that was not the vision of many of the other European leaders. So we left. We will miss many of the good things - ease of access to the markets, freedom of travel and so on. Other things less so, but we have made our bed and now must lie in it. Like with Covid its best to ignore the shrill on both sides of the debate (zero-covid vs let it rip), and try to build a new path.
    Something we often miss on PB is that many people just don't care. For them its done. They rarely think about politics. The audience on Question Time is not the population of the UK, its a very special subset.
    No, I don’t think we did “try”.

    The key moment was after the financial crisis, but neither Cameron nor Osborne were especially interested, and the Tory party at large had stopped thinking anything about the EU except as a bogeyman “other”,
    Nobody did which is why ultimately Britain made the right choice.

    Even Blair and Brown when push came to shove treated Europe as other. They never even tried to have a referendum to join the Euro, spending political capital on going to war alongside the Americans instead, despite all Blair's pretensions of taking Britain into the centre of Europe.

    Britain was never philosophically interested in ever closer union and ultimately a federal single European nation state. The EU is. So ultimately we were the wrong fit for the project, Britain being in the EU is like someone who wants an ample supply of chocolate cakes joining Weightwatchers, it just didn't work.
    There was a thread on Twitter the other day in response to one of the GB News presenters rattling on about how all we ever wanted was to be a member of a trading bloc and didn’t want the political union.

    I can’t be arsed to find the thread, but the writer showed reams and reams of newspaper articles about the project from it’s earliest days, through the referendum when we joined, contemporary interviews with politicians, etc, etc, etc, and it has always been clear, totally unambiguous, even when we joined, that ever closer union was the goal.

    For anyone to say that this ever closer union was something we weren’t aware of, that the perfidious EU was trying to foist it upon us after we joined a simple trading bloc, is wrong.
    It was more perfidious Albion than perfidious EU.

    The EU never kept a secret of the fact they wanted Ever Closer Union and the EU's evolution into being a Federal nation state has never been a secret.

    But in the UK over the past 35 years, arguably from Delors speech to the TUC onwards, the EEC/EU and the UK have drifted apart.

    Its ended up suiting both sides in the UK to rewrite history to claim that the EU is/was about economics rather than a nascent federation. For Eurosceptics it suited them to pretend we'd joined a trade bloc and it had changed - its true it had changed but that it would change was never a secret when we joined. For Europhiles it suited them to pretend the EU is still primarily a trade bloc, because they knew that the majority of Britons now don't want ever closer union and a federal Europe.

    You can't pull the wool over people's eyes for long though. Europhiles needed to make an argument for Ever Closer Union, not pretend it didn't exist or that Dave had abolished it. They didn't, so they lost and deservedly so.
    I think perfidious Albion hits the nail on the head. The behaviour of the right-wing in this country, since free market fundamentalism became the lodestar of Conservative thought, sickens me. They have ripped us out of Europe, and they will happily tear the union asunder and throw NI to the wolves, in their pursuit of unfettered, amoral profit without responsibility.
    Way to miss the point.

    The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum, which is why they won. They said they didn't want ever closer union and they campaigned against it and they won a majority to ensure we no longer had any future in it.

    It was the Remainers who were most dishonest in the referendum. They couldn't bring themselves to actually campaign for Ever Closer Union. They couldn't bring themselves to campaign for a Federal EU.

    The British public were entirely correct to "rip us out of Europe" when even the Europhiles couldn't be arsed to campaign for Europe, to campaign for Ever Closer Union. Instead pretending that David Cameron had abolished it.
    If you think "The "right" on this debate were entirely truthful and honest in the referendum", you are even more gullible idiot than I thought, or a complete liar. As you as an apologist for Johnson I suspect it is the latter. You are also too stupid to understand that "ever closer union" was an aspiration shared by only a few Euro federalists and was massively on the wane as a guiding principle. If you think the French are about to go into full political union with the rest of Europe, particularly Germany you really are as thick as a plank.

    Still, as you say, your side "won". Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn "won" and so did Vladimir Putin. The habitual liars won. Well done.
    You are the habitual liar not me.

    The entire point of the conversation with northern_monkey is that "Ever Closer Union" is literally the raison d'etre of the EU and something they never kept a secret even before we joined or before the 1975 referendum. Yet here you are now pretending that it was 'an aspiration shared by only a few Euro federalists and was massively on the wane as a guiding principle.'

    Deep down in your heart even you don't support Ever Closer Union it seems, you're unwilling to even attempt to argue in favour of it instead lying and casting aspersions that its not real or only a fringe aspiration. Which is why your side of habitual liars deservedly lost.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    I've made the point before that, ultimately, the Remain side was led by Tories. Cameron and Osborne. It would have been interesting to see what a Remain campaign led by people who didn't ultimately have to answer to the Conservative faithful would have done differently. I suspect the benefits of ever closer union would have been much more explicit.

    Or if Cameron had the cojones to face down the right wing wreckers that have got us where we are today.

    Brexit was a debate within the Tory party, and the referendum was meant to quash it.

    The Conservative and Unionists were defeated by the Little Englanders.

    And now we are paying the price
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    aarrgghh Brexit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Jonathan said:

    aarrgghh Brexit.

    It's over. Done. Move on...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    HYUFD said:

    Actually that poll shows we remain equally divided, 42% say Brexit was right and 46% say it was wrong.

    What is clear is that with Tory voters overwhelmingly pro Brexit still and most Labour and LD voters still saying it was wrong if Starmer forms a government with the LDs after the next general election we will have a closer regulatory alignment to the single market and customs union. If the Tories win again though we will stay as we are

    Indeed. Brexit will never be done and settled as no parliament can bind the hands of its successors.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    edited July 2021
    Selebian said:

    Gnud said:

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    I thought the 80% effectiveness figure was against symptoms, not infection.

    How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?

    I thought the analysis was against infection, from the random testing.

    The REACT study for example (don't think that's used for PHE estimates, but I could be wrong) sends you a test at random and asks for your vaccination status. So you include vaccinated and unvaccinated and can compare incidence in the two groups.
    Just had time to check/remember - I was wrong.

    Vaccine status is compared for those who report symptoms and get a test on that basis, between those who test positive and those who test negative. It's clever because it controls for differential health seeking and testing access, as it only compares those who sought (and got) tests.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1.full-text

    There still could be some biases, of course. For example, vaccine status might influence when people seek tests after onset of symptoms and that might affect likelihood of a positive. I suspect the random sample campaigns may also have some analysis.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,493
    edited July 2021
    Jonathan said:

    aarrgghh Brexit.

    Sorry. I try not to indulge but sometimes I just can't stop myself. Then I immediately think, why am I even bothering?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ah, I see for Scotland Patients in hospital is 285 as of 4 days ago.

    I was assured it would peak at barely over 200 and definitely not more than 250.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016

    MaxPB said:

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    Both Whitty and Vallance said at the presser yesterday that people absolutely should continue to wear masks in enclosed crowded spaces. Just minutes after clown stood inbetween them and said that such mask wearing was not required.

    If we unlocked as they are doing, but maintained the requirement for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, then we tick most boxes without saying let it rip. Hard to say "the scientists say they aren't needed" when they stand there at the announcement that they aren't needed and say that actually they are.

    Maintained social distancing indoors? Are you a complete numpty? That's the major change in step 4, removal of distancing restrictions indoors, it allows for companies to run at 100% capacity again and actually, you know, make money.
    Exactly.

    Unlock but maintain social distancing and mask wearing is Step 3. That had already been done, there's exceptionally little (nightclubs only?) that is completely verboten in Step 3 as opposed to just needing distancing.

    The whole point of Step 4 is getting rid of distancing and masks and about time too.
    As I have observed repeatedly I think me and thee/Max/others can all be happy that I no longer live in England.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Just announced

    All Citroen Peugeot and Vauxhall ev small vans and passenger cars will be produced at Ellesmere Port
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    As it is clearer there is no Brexit dividend, but rather various annoying Brexit costs, I think those numbers will continue to move “wrong-wards”.

    As has been pointed out many times, Boris is incredibly “lucky” that covid has masked the disruption of leaving.

    Boris has no coherent plan to leverage the “upside of Brexit”, nor does he aim to bring people together around a unifying vision of post Brexit, as it suits him to use it as a dividing line.

    We all - Brexiters and Remainers - await a proper PM and/or government who is up to the job.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    I must admit that, as Brexit dividends go, I had not anticipated 'the economy will have such damage inflicted on it and government will be so terrified of voters finding out they were conned, it'll bribe car manufacturers to keep factories in the UK'.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    We all - Brexiters and Remainers - await a proper PM and/or government who is up to the job.

    Those of us who aren't dead
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    [snip]

    We all - Brexiters and Remainers - await a proper PM and/or government who is up to the job.

    It'll be a long wait, sadly.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    aarrgghh Brexit.

    It's over. Done. Move on...
    You cant- the current situation is strangling the economy. SMEs in particular are losing as much as 3/4 of their previous trade. A new deal will have to be negotiated. If no deal now then the damage will slowly get worse until it will be clear that the slow puncture has pushed the car off the road.

    The voters will not be so split then, but are more likely to be calling for Johnson´s head on a stick.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Scott_xP said:

    I must admit that, as Brexit dividends go, I had not anticipated 'the economy will have such damage inflicted on it and government will be so terrified of voters finding out they were conned, it'll bribe car manufacturers to keep factories in the UK'.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544

    Ha ha, that dopey pillock posting crap for likes and retweets. This has been happening for many many decades. Still I’m sure the FBPE crackpots will give him those likes and retweets.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    I see the project to persuade remoaners of the Joy of Brex grows ever more subtle and persuasive.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,153
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I must admit that, as Brexit dividends go, I had not anticipated 'the economy will have such damage inflicted on it and government will be so terrified of voters finding out they were conned, it'll bribe car manufacturers to keep factories in the UK'.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544

    Ha ha, that dopey pillock posting crap for likes and retweets. This has been happening for many many decades. Still I’m sure the FBPE crackpots will give him those likes and retweets.
    Twitter was ongoing in the 1930s?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    I still feel the exit wave needs some degree of a brake over it, but Boris is right that the mindset of government should be that whatever remains in place should be tolerable
    and proportionate for businesses and people for the whole of this winter, that is, even if there may be an opportunity to release further when the wave abates in a month or two time. So, here's the sort of thing I would do at a high level:

    - Open all venues at full seating capacity but limit density in dedicated standing areas (e.g. pop concerts, dance floors, bar areas).
    - Keep pubs as primarily seated, with bar for seating and ordering, discourage vertical milling.
    - Retain some additional limits on close proximity entertainment from theatre to adult entertainment venues
    - Retain masks on public transport, close contact and medical treatment services only
    - Advise contact and travel reduction in high incidence areas
    - Retain the informal idea of social distancing where possible
    - End full contact isolation, but replace with a compulsory 'test negative periodically before mixing regime', same for schoolchildren, adults and inbound travel (except limited red zone).
    - With this new regime actually broaden a little who is considered a contact and take any opportunities to improve venue tracking.
    - Informal advice not to attend mass entertainment except by negative test, double vaccination or prior infection (e.g. an individually voluntary passport scheme)

    The hope would be that, though we could retain this for a good long while if we had to, there would actually be an opportunity to drop much of the remaining restriction in Autumn as the summer exit wave subsides.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Just announced

    All Citroen Peugeot and Vauxhall ev small vans and passenger cars will be produced at Ellesmere Port

    Great news. I’m sure all theFBPE bedwetters will be upset but remember Dr Cable when he was in charge of BEIS gave govt money to Vauxhall to keep Astra production there.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I must admit that, as Brexit dividends go, I had not anticipated 'the economy will have such damage inflicted on it and government will be so terrified of voters finding out they were conned, it'll bribe car manufacturers to keep factories in the UK'.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544

    Ha ha, that dopey pillock posting crap for likes and retweets. This has been happening for many many decades. Still I’m sure the FBPE crackpots will give him those likes and retweets.
    Twitter was ongoing in the 1930s?
    Try reading it again .....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    TimS said:

    The so-called "Liberal Democrat" Layla Moran on Sky banging on about Long Covid due to not having illiberal restrictions on Covid anymore.

    Voltaire's quip about the Holy Roman Empire applies just as much to the Liberal Democrats.

    I don't think I'm the only Lib Dem somewhat uncomfortable with this apparent drift into authoritarianism by some in the party (Layla is the most vocal and I suspect the most opinionated on this). Following the evidence is what we should be doing. Of course it means being sceptical of the ideologically driven "freedom day" stuff, but it also means accepting that state control over the individual should never be an end goal.

    I do think Moran is a bit of an outlier within the party on this though.
    On this topic (and presumably others) she seems to be in the wrong party entirely.

    Terrifying to think she stood for the leadership.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_xP said:

    We all - Brexiters and Remainers - await a proper PM and/or government who is up to the job.

    Those of us who aren't dead
    Or who have emigrated.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited July 2021

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    It was amazing at the time, and is amazing now. Elected on a ‘respect the result’ ticket , then voting down every version of respecting the result, with some starting new parties explicitly to prevent it happening, and others demanding another go at it. Incredible
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

    The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

    "I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

    "There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

    From the BBC live feed

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Actually that poll shows we remain equally divided, 42% say Brexit was right and 46% say it was wrong.

    What is clear is that with Tory voters overwhelmingly pro Brexit still and most Labour and LD voters still saying it was wrong if Starmer forms a government with the LDs after the next general election we will have a closer regulatory alignment to the single market and customs union. If the Tories win again though we will stay as we are

    42 is the same as 46?
    HYUFD formula = undecided voters always tilt towards his preferred outcome.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    Yes, being a remainer was the right choice for me working in manufacturing and valuing free movement and not wanting to be on the side of some awful people but I never quite expected remain to have such equally awful specimens as a part of it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Meanwhile, business as usual over the Pond:

    At least 150 Americans were shot dead over the Independence Day bank holiday weekend as the US suffered its latest bout of violence.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/at-least-150-americans-shot-dead-over-independence-day-weekend-2kd705wmp [£££]
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    TimS said:

    The so-called "Liberal Democrat" Layla Moran on Sky banging on about Long Covid due to not having illiberal restrictions on Covid anymore.

    Voltaire's quip about the Holy Roman Empire applies just as much to the Liberal Democrats.

    I don't think I'm the only Lib Dem somewhat uncomfortable with this apparent drift into authoritarianism by some in the party (Layla is the most vocal and I suspect the most opinionated on this). Following the evidence is what we should be doing. Of course it means being sceptical of the ideologically driven "freedom day" stuff, but it also means accepting that state control over the individual should never be an end goal.

    I do think Moran is a bit of an outlier within the party on this though.
    I think she's an outlier within the party on most things...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,752
    Toms said:

    Test

    You pass the test OGH.
    False positive?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Alistair said:

    Ah, I see for Scotland Patients in hospital is 285 as of 4 days ago.

    I was assured it would peak at barely over 200 and definitely not more than 250.

    Once again, the question is how many of them are unvaccinated by choice? In England we've been told today that 88% of people in hospital are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. That's a big win for the vaccine programme and if, like England, the people in hospital in Scotland are majority people who have refused the vaccine then what length of lockdown will convince them to get it?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    You (and Marquee Mark) advocate for some kind of populist majoritarianism.

    That’s not especially democratic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    You're milking it now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

    The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

    "I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

    "There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

    From the BBC live feed

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.

    BUT BUT the idiot at the Times has stuck his ruler through the data and said if this continues when we hit 200k cases we will have 4000+ a day going into hospital....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Dura_Ace said:

    You're milking it now.
    Why not
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....

    And the sixth year of you not giving a shiny shit what happens to anybody over Brexit...

    And you accuse others of sneering.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
    See thread header.
    Most people now disagree with you.

    By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    MaxPB said:

    Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

    The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

    "I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

    "There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

    From the BBC live feed

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.

    BUT BUT the idiot at the Times has stuck his ruler through the data and said if this continues when we hit 200k cases we will have 4000+ a day going into hospital....
    Someone was suggesting 1 million a day on here but I cannot remember who
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    algarkirk said:

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    The long term Remain epic fail is over generations. If you want to support a wholly novel integrationist policy uniting disparate peoples 500,000,000 strong, you have to do it either by democracy and consultation (ie liberal democracy) or by authoritarianism (like China).

    Doing it by stealth, diversionary tactics, factual inexactitude and manipulation with a bit of bullying can't work reliably.

    So Remain failed from 1972 to 2015, because it failed to win hearts and minds, and failed to set a decent and truthful vision before a properly sceptical public. The Remain campaign was worse; and the Remain tactics post referendum deserve their own courses in management, business studies, politics and history degrees - "How to turn a setback into a catastrophe."

    We come, I think, from opposite sides of the Brexit debate - you voted leave? But I tend to agree with everything you write on it.

    Successive governments, since Thatcher (and even hers in its later times) took the line that the EU was a shitshow, but that the positives just about outweighed the negatives. Even Blair, who was the most positive in my lifetime, I think, preferred not to talk about it. There was never, in my lifetime, a real positive case made for being in.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
    See thread header.
    Most people now disagree with you.

    By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
    This may be news to you but we have governance via elections and not opinion polls.

    The so-called majority against Brexit that has been put on thread headers on this site for about five years and counting now pre-dates the last general election. It didn't prevent the 80 seat majority, so no rapid about-turn necessary.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
    See thread header.
    Most people now disagree with you.

    By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
    46:42 is not "most people'

    And we won't know if leaving was the right thing to do for 2-3 years. Certainly not economically, and possibly not politically.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....

    And the sixth year of you not giving a shiny shit what happens to anybody over Brexit...

    And you accuse others of sneering.
    I’m going to refer to him as Snarky Mark from now on.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Cicero said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    aarrgghh Brexit.

    It's over. Done. Move on...
    You cant- the current situation is strangling the economy. SMEs in particular are losing as much as 3/4 of their previous trade. A new deal will have to be negotiated. If no deal now then the damage will slowly get worse until it will be clear that the slow puncture has pushed the car off the road.

    The voters will not be so split then, but are more likely to be calling for Johnson´s head on a stick.
    Surely you've noticed over the past 18 months that Boris will only make a decision when there is a single choice left on the table....

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Leave and Remain voters seem equally convinced of their position, so the headline result of this poll rather advertises that they've over-sampled remainers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,081
    The most striking thing for me is how convinced most Labour voters are that Brexit was wrong.

    Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.

    It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
    See thread header.
    Most people now disagree with you.

    By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
    This may be news to you but we have governance via elections and not opinion polls.

    The so-called majority against Brexit that has been put on thread headers on this site for about five years and counting now pre-dates the last general election. It didn't prevent the 80 seat majority, so no rapid about-turn necessary.
    I would just comment that thinking Brexit was wrong does not automatically translate into re- join
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    algarkirk said:

    Well, yes, pro-Remain MPs were wrong to have opposed TMay’s deal in 2019. Doesn't need hindsight, that was completely clear at the time. What the hell were they thinking? Didn't the fact that they were going through the lobbies with Mark Francois, John Redwood, Steve Baker etc - not to mention John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn - not give them a clue?

    The long term Remain epic fail is over generations. If you want to support a wholly novel integrationist policy uniting disparate peoples 500,000,000 strong, you have to do it either by democracy and consultation (ie liberal democracy) or by authoritarianism (like China).

    Doing it by stealth, diversionary tactics, factual inexactitude and manipulation with a bit of bullying can't work reliably.

    So Remain failed from 1972 to 2015, because it failed to win hearts and minds, and failed to set a decent and truthful vision before a properly sceptical public. The Remain campaign was worse; and the Remain tactics post referendum deserve their own courses in management, business studies, politics and history degrees - "How to turn a setback into a catastrophe."

    I think you're forgetting something, in your haste to blame Remain. From about the mid 90's onwards there was a drip drip drip of anti Brussels material from the Telegraph, Mail and Express and virulently from the Sun. Boris' articles about bendy bananas and the like created a mind-set.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    MaxPB said:

    Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

    The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

    "I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

    "There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

    From the BBC live feed

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort - that's a useful stat, thanks - I've been looking for that.
    The other thing I've been wondering about is where we are now on the old died from/died with dichotomy. Presumably, with so many positive tests at the moment, it's inevitable that we're going to get a lot of people dying within 28 days of a positive - that levels we're looking look at first glance to be very similar to the death rates you would expect within a population that large. Though I suppose one also needs to adjust for the ages of people testing positive, within which population you would expect background level of deaths to be much lower.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Foxy said:

    The most striking thing for me is how convinced most Labour voters are that Brexit was wrong.

    Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.

    It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.

    If he was being honest he and Labour would campaign to rejoin
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Scott_xP said:

    On topic, who gives a shiny shit? Boris got an 80 seat majority. 19 months on, he still has an 80 seat majority. He is likely to have a majority close to 80 for the rest of his term, 2023/24.

    "Yes, it's a shitshow, but fuckit, we won!"

    And you wonder why Brexiteers are not winning hearts and minds...
    Do you ever wonder why you lost the Referendum?

    Exhibit A - this level of supercilious sneering....
    It was literally in response to your deranged bellowing that Boris has a majority and hence nobody gives a “shiny shit”.

    There’s a word for your instincts, and it’s not really “democratic”.
    Oh really?

    How did Boris get his majority? How did he win the referendum?

    Its your side that's against democracy, not Mark.
    We are into the sixth year of them Not Having A Fucking Clue what happened to them over Brexit.....
    See thread header.
    Most people now disagree with you.

    By your perverted and dismal understanding of democracy we should surely do a rapid about-turn!
    Most opinion polls in the week of the referendum disagreed with him. But not the one that mattered.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,153
    Floater said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I must admit that, as Brexit dividends go, I had not anticipated 'the economy will have such damage inflicted on it and government will be so terrified of voters finding out they were conned, it'll bribe car manufacturers to keep factories in the UK'.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1412359747249004544

    Ha ha, that dopey pillock posting crap for likes and retweets. This has been happening for many many decades. Still I’m sure the FBPE crackpots will give him those likes and retweets.
    Twitter was ongoing in the 1930s?
    Try reading it again .....
    "that dopey pillock posting crap for likes and retweets. This has been happening for many many decades."

    "This ... happening" must refer to "posting". Unless it also means doing it in the cast iron thing painted red down the road, as well, which is not a usual synthesis - it's either Twatter or RM.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited July 2021
    Gnud said:

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    I thought the 80% effectiveness figure was against symptoms, not infection.

    How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?

    After two jabs of Pfizer:
    effectiveness against dying of the disease approx 100%
    effectiveness against hospitalisation was 98%, with Delta it is 94%
    effectiveness against infection was 94%, with Delta it is 64%
    Source Israel data https://www.politico.eu/article/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-less-effective-at-preventing-coronavirus-cases-study/

    Given you are infected (but double jabbed), effectiveness against transmission (low viral load) is x%.
    If x% is 50%, then effectiveness against transmission of Delta is
    1- (1-0.64)x(1-0.5) i,e, 82%.
    If x is 80% then effectiveness is 93%.
    But I think that x is not yet known.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TimS said:

    The so-called "Liberal Democrat" Layla Moran on Sky banging on about Long Covid due to not having illiberal restrictions on Covid anymore.

    Voltaire's quip about the Holy Roman Empire applies just as much to the Liberal Democrats.

    I don't think I'm the only Lib Dem somewhat uncomfortable with this apparent drift into authoritarianism by some in the party (Layla is the most vocal and I suspect the most opinionated on this). Following the evidence is what we should be doing. Of course it means being sceptical of the ideologically driven "freedom day" stuff, but it also means accepting that state control over the individual should never be an end goal.

    I do think Moran is a bit of an outlier within the party on this though.
    Indeed.

    After Boris postponed Stage 4 I said he's lost my support. But looking at the Lib Dems, especially but not just Moran, I couldn't see a liberal party I could support there either which is a shame, there's been a real vacancy on the liberal/authoritarian spectrum and the Lib Dems have just vacated that space entirely it seems.

    Now that Stage 4 is going ahead, I'm happy to start supporting Boris again. So long as he sticks with it and doesn't become authoritarian again.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Foxy said:

    The most striking thing for me is how convinced most Labour voters are that Brexit was wrong.

    Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.

    It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.

    They never will, but more interesting will be how the valency changes.

    Best case scenario is continued British out-performance and you'll just end up with remain voters still saying it was wrong, but not saying it very loudly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    MaxPB said:

    Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

    The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

    "I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

    "There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

    From the BBC live feed

    88% of people in hospital are currently from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated cohort which shrinks every day. This is the stat we've all been waiting for and once again justifies reopening. The vaccine is basically freely available to anyone who wants it. What we're seeing is the virus burning through the unvaccinated population. There was never a scenario where we could stay locked down because people have refused the vaccine.

    BUT BUT the idiot at the Times has stuck his ruler through the data and said if this continues when we hit 200k cases we will have 4000+ a day going into hospital....
    Someone was suggesting 1 million a day on here but I cannot remember who
    That'll be @chris
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Meanwhile, EU seems to want full alignment with EU rules on veterinary stuff:
    https://twitter.com/emilyrees_eu/status/1412323033784766467
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    How much?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Foxy said:

    The most striking thing for me is how convinced most Labour voters are that Brexit was wrong.

    Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.

    It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.

    If he was being honest he and Labour would campaign to rejoin
    Why?

    That bridge has been crossed.

    I don’t believe in rejoining. At least not given the current circumstances.

    As usual you suggest your political opponents are mendacious while Boris is widely considered the biggest liar in Westminster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sweet Jesus, 698 cases compared to 281 last tuesday in Wales
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Jonathan said:
    Luckily for Big G, he will not be paying for it.
    Treble (locked) G&Ts all round!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016

    Foxy said:

    The most striking thing for me is how convinced most Labour voters are that Brexit was wrong.

    Not only is Starmer not very convincing in his appeals to former Labour Leavers, he is out of line with the majority of his existing voters.

    It is also quite striking that despite the press histrionics over vaccines (see PB passim ad nauseum) that opinion over Brexit has not shifted. There is little sign of Remainers changing their minds.

    If he was being honest he and Labour would campaign to rejoin
    They should be campaigning for the 3rd way - rejoin the EEA.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Jonathan said:
    100 million
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2021
    Barnesian said:

    Gnud said:

    mwadams said:

    jonny83 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    So Labour's talking point objections to boris opening up seems to be 3 fold.

    Not enough support for better ventilation...fine, but how much longer would we have to delay opening up before many more buildings have better ventilation? Next year?

    More payments for isolation....well given only 20% actually complete isolation properly, while for some it is about money, hosing more money at this, won't magically get that figure really really high as for many it is about attitude...so that won't solve covid spread either.

    Masks on public transport...i think this is fair enough criticism, but if you are going to be allowing pubs, gyms, restaurants etc, dropping social distance limits and gathering numbers (most spread is via friend / family interactions), how much difference does this make to stop spread? Are Labour saying we have to keep all these other restrictions?

    And Ashworth rather dishonestly has moved goalposts talking about only 50% of PEOPLE vaccinated.

    So how much longer does Labour think we need to carry on with current restrictions? To get through vaccinating kids that several more months, then what about booster shots, do we have to wait for those to be done? For better ventilation, that's months, or more like years....

    The masks on public transport one comes from the fact you have 200 people say from 200 different offices heading to 200 different homes.

    If it only takes 5 minutes to catch covid, that's an awful lot of possible connections where it could be spread.

    As I commented on this last night, public transport is about the last place that masks should be removed from...
    Certainly I will keep wearing a mask until double vaccinated and probably after on public transport anyway, though for the double vaccinated it should be voluntary in my view
    I had my 2nd jab in March and I will continue to wear masks going to and from work on the bus. I am happy to volunteer to do so.
    People seem to forget that the mask is to protect others, not to protect yourself.

    Vaccination only provides *some*protection against Delta infection (it's main effect seems to be to reduce severity), so you should still wear your mask to protect others even after double jabbage.

    Plus, who wants to spend 10 days off work if you get a mild or asymptomatic infection having been double jabbed?
    "some"....Pfizer is 80% effective....AZN 60% (and actually it is probably higher as the studies have used 3 week / 2 week cut offs, which a) means some in the data caught it within those periods and when we know AZN takes longer to build max immunity)...

    That's a lot higher than "some". So no their main effect is not reduced severity. Its very good protection AND reduced severity.

    Flu shots are never this effective.
    I thought the 80% effectiveness figure was against symptoms, not infection.

    How are vaccine effectiveness figures calculated? Is there a control sample of unvaccinated people, with weightings applied for lifestyle?

    After two jabs of Pfizer:
    effectiveness against dying of the disease approx 100%
    effectiveness against hospitalisation was 98%, with Delta it is 94%
    effectiveness against infection was 94%, with Delta it is 64%
    Source Israel data https://www.politico.eu/article/biontech-pfizer-vaccine-less-effective-at-preventing-coronavirus-cases-study/

    Given you are infected (but double jabbed), effectiveness against transmission (low viral load) is x%.
    If x% is 50%, then effectiveness against transmission of Delta is
    1- (1-0.64)x(1-0.5) i,e, 82%.
    If x is 80% then effectiveness is 93%.
    But I think that x is not yet known.
    Israel data should be treated very careful. Its very small numbers across less than a months worth of observations. Much bigger data sets from PHE and ZOE app.

    Israel data is at the same stage as when the UK had that stat of 1/3 dying had been double jabbed....when it was from a dataset showing 12 in 52 people.
This discussion has been closed.