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In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A – politicalbettin
In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A – politicalbetting.com
Judging by the reports the Batley by-election campaign has become an increasingly nasty affair with the campaign of the Labour candidate, sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, and facing what could be seen as physical intimidation. Who has been behind this we do not know but my guess is that it might just help her.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-conservative-party-uk-manifesto-promises/
Basically the Tory party covers too much ground which means if Boris and Co focus on the North they are going to upset the South.
Not that it actually makes any difference as I suspect Boris has picked the correct ground to find the centre and can afford to lose a few Southern seats such as Amersham to the Lib Dems / Labour.
Whether they do or not depends on who actually turns out and votes on the day.
Anyone But George Galloway
The trouble for Labour is that none of this helps them. A B&S defeat will trigger yet more infighting and I suspect a sense of despair. I do think it makes more sense for them to do the bloodletting now than in the run up to the next general election, but I worry they will draw the wrong lessons.
The question is: how many votes does GG have to get to screw Labour, give the GE19 majority was 7 % of the total vote.
My guess is if GG gets 7 % of the vote, then Labour will find it very, very hard to win. It is not a big threshold.
As regards the candidate Kim Leadbeater, she reminds me a lot of SKS.
Most people on pb.com predicted SKS would do much better than he has. I remember OGH saying "forensic" Starmer would destroy Boris.
I suspect Kim appeals to a very similar demographic as SKS.
Whether that demographic is decisive in B&S, I'm not sure.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1409780682117746688
Starmer should get onto this, to maintain the "sleaze" mood music.
And this is worth a look on how the LD revival won't help much either.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/chesham-and-amersham-byelection/
Things could be much worse on the streets. Good to hear Tommy Robinson didn't show up in the constituency on Saturday in support of the For Britain candidate, Anne Marie Waters. Let's hope he doesn't stick his oar in before polling day.
George Galloway is likely to exceed 5% because of the emotional levers he pulls among parts of the British Pakistani electorate. If one in three voters in that demographic vote for him in B&S that will be 7%.
The key to who wins could well be then whether For Britain, UKIP and the English Democrats take enough of the hard right 2019 Heavy Woollen Leaver vote that might otherwise have gone Tory to enable Labour to scrape home
Beyond that however 75% of the remaining 60 seats where the LDs were second in 2019 voted Leave
The uphill for Labour is immense. They have of course this going for them: all politics is relative; when the Tories/Boris run out of road there is nowhere else to go but Labour.
An issue Labour need to sort fairly clearly after this horrible byelection which I hope they win is: do they seek the Islamic vote on the basis of sympathy, however faint, with Islamism or do they seek it because they are the secular and democratic party which is the right choice for an Islamic person for the same reason it might be the right choice for a Methodist, humanist etc.
GG putting himself into the battle has however created a whole different set of problems that no one was expecting.
The only remaining point of interest from this sorry election campaign is more evidence of the Americanisation of British politics. Groups campaigning as supporter of a campaign getting away with what actual campaigns cannot. Much like how Gove disagreed with some adverts in 2016 whilst at the same time benefitting from how effective they were.
The point about the above is that - generalising from my own family's experience - the vast majority of the gap between the blue line and the red line will be made up of those who actually have negative PCR tests but are still faced with 10 days' house arrest.
https://labourlist.org/2021/06/will-kim-leadbeaters-campaign-allow-labour-to-hold-onto-batley-and-spen/
Betfair's prices have Labour moving in (as I write) to 4.8 and the Tories out to 1.29, but still a very thin market. The Lab-Galloway Ladbrokes market is back out to 1/7.
When Boris goes I doubt any alternative Tory leader will have as much appeal, especially to the white working class in the Red Wall and if Burnham replaces Starmer as Labour leader by then
It doesn't help every time her sister admonishes her "don't cough people will think you have coronavirus" which of course only eggs her on even more.
In five year-olds it's cute. For teenagers, yes I'm sure there's those who think they can get away with it.
Nobody has Boris's chutzpah, and my hunch is that a lot of Boris's success is powered by that chutzpah.
On face masks (I believe there was a PBer who recommended turning old pants into masks?).
But, surely Labour were asleep at the wheel if they did not think GG would put himself into the battle.
Especially after the flare-up in Israel/Palestine barely a month ago.
The whole by-election was unnecessary anyhow. SKS should have told Brabin, no. There are plenty of other Labour women who could have stood for the mayoralty. Brabin is nothing special.
It all adds to the impression that SKS has no political 'street knowledge'.
Boris has approval ratings that Cameron could only dream of at this stage of the 2010-15 Parliament.
The thing with Boris is that he really winds up some people a lot but overall he's actually popular.
This is another Brexit benefit, of course, encouraged by the two post-referendum governments, to brand any criticism of the implementation of Brexit as treason. This poison, now unleashed, spreads further through our political discourse.
Thanks for that.
Where I am in Crosby, my daughter had to spend 10 days in two weeks ago after a positive in her class, and we then spent a nervy weekend when a parent tested positive on the Saturday and sent her daughter for a PCR. It came back negative on Sunday night but my wife's phone was pinging every ten minutes over the weekend as all the WhatsApp mum's were messaging every ten minutes with, "Has [daughters'] result come back yet?" as they knew what it meant if it was positive.
I'm also told that there are a number of other classes and years out in Crosby.
Not even wanted for his 'writing ability'.
I mean, the result could be any of the normal three options!
England can lose in normal time.
England can lose after extra time.
Or England can lose on penalties.
That covers all bases doesn't it?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/asylum-seekers-offered-163-3-000-deal-to-go-home-6111854.html
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1409792982203703300?s=20
The country has long offered migrants and asylum seekers financial incentives to leave its shores, and until 28 February 2018 it's prepared to pay out extra.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42235232
Whatever the fall out of all this and wherever Labour and Starmer end up, the putative possibility of the next two fights being in Tory held marginals north of Stoke under possibly inauspicious local and less vaccine honeymoon national circumstances is something to look forward to. Shots to nothing with a potential to change the narrative for whichever Labour party takes the field.
It's worth keeping an eye on - as others have noted they can afford to lose a few southern seats, particularly if they make more progress in the north, but they shouldn't be complacent, and the impression only the red wall matters could be trouble.
As opposed to a Tony Blair Labour policy that has been left in place?
This is cash for workers. People who are here legally and paying taxes and doing work that is needed. We want then to go home so that we can create a big shortage of labour in care homes and the NHS and logistics and manufacturing and all the other jobs that people refuse to do so that we can blame the EU for the problems.
"Forriners! How would you like to go back where you came from so that we don't have to look at you any more or listen to your forrin languages? Here's £3k to fuck off back to Latvia or Pakistan or wherever". Rule Britannia and all that.
Boris Johnson
Positive: 41.5%
Negative: 39.5%
NET: +2.0
Keir Starmer
Positive: 26.6%
Negative: 36.9%
NET: -9.7
via @BritainElects poll tracking
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1409822264103636993?s=20
https://twitter.com/amitkatwala/status/1409793309875245056?s=20
https://www.gov.uk/return-home-voluntarily/who
You cannot apply for voluntary return if you either:
applied for, or have, settled or pre-settled status under the EU settlement scheme - even if you withdraw your application
started living in the UK before 1 January 2021 and meet the ‘right to reside’ criteria
So you only qualify if you arrived after 1/1/2021 ...
If as you claim that existed in 2006 then you must have taken a break from writing the H&S Manual to rewrite history. Again. As I said if Tories feel good about paying people who legally live work and pay taxes here to fuck off back where they came from the Good For You.
Biden Wants To Dismantle Two Weapons The Richest 0.1% Use To Avoid Taxes
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/biden-wants-to-dismantle-two-weapons-the-richest-0-1--use-to-avoid-taxes-62849.html
...Biden’s so-called “Green Book,” the Treasury document laying out these details, specifically takes aim at dynasty trusts—vehicles that are able to exist for generations without incurring gift, estate, or generation-skipping transfer taxes. The proposal would force trusts to pay capital gains tax on appreciated assets every 90 years, but it’s drafted in a way that would impose taxes as early as Dec. 31, 2030.
The change would cause planners to think twice about the strategy, said James F. Hogan, a managing director at Andersen Tax LLC who previously worked at the Internal Revenue Service. “Do you really want to do a dynasty trust when you know you’re going to have an income tax anyways?”
Biden’s plans to make heirs pay more, equalize rates between investors and workers, and boost taxes on corporations and the wealthy by raising rates are part of a global revival of initiatives to target the rich—a movement that has gained momentum since Covid-19 blew massive fiscal holes in government budgets around the world. From Buenos Aires to Stockholm to Washington, authorities have proposed or implemented new taxes on capital gains, inheritances, and wealth to raise money for social services and infrastructure programs.
‘Big Blow’
Biden’s proposed plan would also charge a capital gains tax when assets are transferred into, or distributed from, certain kinds of trusts. A Treasury official said that aspect of the plan specifically targets tools like the intentionally defective grantor trust—a common, if complicated, technique that can allow the wealthy to move money out of their taxable estates to benefit heirs.
“That’s a big blow to take that out of our arsenal,” said Ronald D. Aucutt, senior fiduciary counsel at Bessemer Trust....
It is a sad reflection of what England has become. As I said on here previously I am glad to have left and for some of you I know the feeling is mutual. You go do what you want to England, I'll live somewhere a bit less gammony if thats ok.
Anyone who arrived without a visa after 1/1/2021 did so illegally so was already eligible if they met the other criteria.
And we been far more generous than many EU countries with UK nationals who are long term residents there.
Scheme is here: https://www.gov.uk/return-home-voluntarily/who
Lots of advice on how to be paid money to go home as a forriner. And does it apply to resident EU workers who don't hit the deadline on Wednesday? Yes: "A Home Office spokesperson said: “Some people may choose not to obtain status under EUSS and may not wish to remain in the UK after the deadline. That is why we have written to stakeholders to inform them that EEA nationals who wish to leave the UK may now be eligible for support to help them do so under the voluntary returns scheme.”" (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/26/eu-citizens-offered-financial-incentives-to-leave-uk)
Even if Match of the Day just says "he made a header".
An inspiration for the rest of us.
But I just cannot see how it is the case that the UK's policies in this regard are apparently egregiously bad and a national shame compared to others, which is the specific allegation being made.
It's a bit too close to when people are so intent on criticising bad rules around immigation/asylum that they give the impression (sometimes deliberate sometimes not) that any rules on them are unacceptable and gammony.
If they're here illegally and meet the eligibility criteria they're eligible. Always was the case since Blair introduced it.
What's new is that anyone who arrived after 1/1/21 or who doesn't register to stay is here illegally. But shouldn't that automatically mean this scheme applies? 🤔
Well, one reason.
NBA has every player position in 3d at I believe 30fps and had it for nearly 10 years now. And this data is open to every team. I believe NFL allows every team to have the GPS data of all other teams. Same with baseball, each pitch tracked exactly from hand to glove, every player position, etc etc etc. So the level of analytics and modelling they have been able to develop is significantly greater.
As ever it's a case of identifying the really meaningful statistics. The key to success, in my opinion, is getting a good blend of players that complement each other, with central midfield the most important position to get right. As good as Vardy and Mahrez were for Leicester in 2015-16, Kante was the key player that season.
I think people are happy to do their bit to limit the spread, although with most people vaccinated now I don't think people are as bothered as they once were. But people are getting really hacked off at the amount of childhood their children are having to miss even after a negative PCR test.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/29/miami-condo-collapse-questions-climate-change
The combination of rising sea levels, limestone geography, and utter lack of high ground are going to make life very difficult indeed sometime in the next few decades.
Whether any of that has anything to do with the recent building collapse is for now completely unproven, of course.
My sole point is that this scheme is 15 years old and was created by a Labour (albeit Blairite) Government while you are seemingly claiming that its new.
The only difference is that some (albeit no where near as many as you claim because you haven't read the actual critieria for acceptance for EU citizens) EU citizens can now claim it.
Liverpool already have probabilistic models that they can show players given their position vs particular defensive setups, what is the optimal action / area to run to...and then when they get their, what is the next optimal action. And this isn't at point A, now point B, this is as the player moves across the pitch.
e.g. it is widely now excepted at the highest level the old idea of "down the wing, whip it in the box" is a generally a poor tactical approach, and has been shown via these models.
THE surge in coronavirus cases is partly linked to football fans watching the Euro 2020 tournament indoors, Scotland's Health Secretary Humza Yousaf has said.
A number of cases have also been linked to coaches transporting fans to London to watch Scotland play, Mr Yousaf added.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/7326785/coronavirus-scotland-euro-2020-london-covid/
Even in cricket they haven't yet started to record field placings, so they were expecting that to be the next great leap forwards in cricket analysis.
You'd rather they spent a fortune dragging them through the courts and then to the boarding gate?
Because there is none from either the website or the Guardian link. That's your own imagination it seems to me, not the Home Office.
If people are here illegally then they're pretty much automatically eligible for the resettlement scheme so long as they meet the other eligibility criteria. That automatically includes anyone who arrives from the EU without a visa (or overstaying a visa) from 1/1/21, or any of the 3 million EU citizens in the UK who aren't in the 5 million that have applied for Settled Status.
No extension necessary. The pre-existing law already applied. If you see a change in the law by the Home Office changing it I'd be curious when a statutory instrument or other went through Parliament, or a quote from the Home Office saying so, their words not yours. Otherwise this is the law as introduced by Blair being applied equally to all.
Treason is a particularly hostile accusation. It leaves no room for debate. It justifies extreme measures in response.
So, not surprising that people are upset. Worrying that they are expressing that in the form of an accusation of treason.
Do it properly, consistently and for enough matches, then a lot of profit can be made out of it.