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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New guest slot poster, Innocent Abroad on “Betting Past the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New guest slot poster, Innocent Abroad on “Betting Past the Tribe”
One of the attractions of betting on politics, perhaps, is that, unlike, say, betting on horseracing, there are no rules: no authority – other than the law itself – to determine what is or is not improper conduct.
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I do wonder about the Telegraph., DT writer asks if things can get any worse for Francois Hollande.
FFS he's a middle aged fat bloke - he heads the world's fourth biggest economy with several millions at his disposal and is now allegedly enjoying the company of a hottish 40 yr old actress as well as a hottish 48 yr old.
Tell you what I'll take on his problems.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10563267/Can-it-get-any-worse-for-Francois-Hollande.html
The thought of you fantasising about riding pillion through the wilds of Warwickshire on a chauffeur driven motorcycle and in pursuit of secret sex is causing me to choke on my amuses bouches.
a waiter brings him room service – walks into his room bringing more bottles of champagne and there was George in bed with two stunning models and his bed was strewn with £20 notes – the waiter looked at George and said – “Mr Best where did it all go wrong”……………
ie The fewer people who are registered, the higher turnout will be - because keen people will register and there will be less people who usually don't bother voting on the register.
One thing to check is the total electorate vs population change - I seem to recall posting on here that the 2011 electorate used for the aborted boundary review showed a much, much smaller increase on the 2001 electorate than would be expected from population change.
The above should therefore lead to a higher turnout! (all other things being equal).
Tnx.
except it's risen at the past two elections....
You need to factor in the probability that the 2010 Lib Dem defectors will stay at home.
Aim of the game is to try and make dosh out of it this time round.
:beware-auntie-hortence's-wrath...:
What you need is for Iran to announce it is going to transform to a western style democracy, and Saudi Arabia too. And OPEC to disband. That lot would see oil drop...
The big surprise (to me anyway) is the attitude of the UKIP-minded. I can't think why, unless they are of the opinion we should never have got involved in the first place (with Germany holding the Belgian ports and Tirpitz's Riskflotte to which the French Navy would be added??).
http://wingsoverscotland.com/some-things-you-should-know/#more-47269
The bit on expelling Scotland and Catalonia from the EU is also interesting!
There is always an element of risk - bookies going bust, claiming 'palpable errors', Scotland going independent and no GE in Scottish seats in 2015... (Though I have been assured there will be a GE2015 in Scotland even if YES - but it is not 100% definite)..
Likely but not guaranteed.
We know that one factor of turnout is how close the election is perceived to be (i.e. will my vote matter). That alone will have increased turnout last time.
Another, related, one is does it matter who wins? If all three parties are seen to be too much alike - and no other has a good chance - that should depress turnout.
That said, if there is a Yes, I'd anticipate an SNP landslide north of the border in both 2015 and 2016.
Do my eyes deceive me?
He added: "To me, the absolute driving part of the mission is a basic level of security so it doesn't become a haven for terror. That is the mission, that was the mission and I think we will have accomplished that mission and so our troops can be very proud of what they have done."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1922
http://www.hot102.fm/index2.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=104&Itemid=60&Name=Value
For what its worth there are something like 6 million eligible citizens who are not registered to vote and something around 46 million registered.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-reviews-and-research/new-report-shows-at-least-6m-people-not-registered-to-vote
As for turnout in 2015, I think it is dependent on if there is anything to really capture the electorate's imagination (like a strong desire to get rid of the government for something better). I don't get that sense. Firstly Labour have been nothing but dull and unimpressive and so will not inspire great confidence or enthusiasm (things are definitely not going to get better). Similarly the Conservative message is going to be muted still being more austerity than prosperity with neither of the main protagonists able to capture any real sense of nation or competence. Given these factors my sense is turnout will slip to something close to 2005 levels.
However, if the narrative further turns to the result being a foregone conclusion (with Labour poll leads remaining sufficient to ensure a majority) turnout could slip even further with disappointed/ disaffected Tories and those not particularly election minded staying at home.
If on the other hand its perceived as a close election where NOM is likely and either main party could be returned to Downing Street then that may improve turnout and push it closer to 2010 levels
On the other hand if you have scots representatives it runs a very real risk of having a government change one year after an election purely because a certain proportion of mp's are now excluded.
Personally I think it is pretty slim reason to need representation and certainly there should be no scots mps involved in the negotiations on the uk side whether as participants or even able to vote on proposals.
While I support scots independance I think it is a bit much to expect to have mp's around for a year when you have announced your departure with all the expense and turmoil it creates
The way to resolve that point re Labour is for the Tories and LDs to take the view that it was the fault of the London -based parties collectively, so no change pro tem till it was sorted out.
The question is having won the independence referendum could the SNP government legally withdraw from the General Election? I suspect under the circumstances they could justify their case.
Too many PB readers are letting their dislike of the Labour Party interrupt their analysis of politics. I didn't mention the Labour Party at all, because they can't determine the timing of the next general election. Isn't this partisanship what the original post warns about?
Re postponing elections, leaving the Scots out etc. The Parliament Act can only be used in the session of parliament following the Lords blocking something i.e. usually not for a year. With the referendum in the late summer / early autumn of 2014 and the general election in the spring of 2015, the Parliament Act probably couldn't come into play (unless there were two, short, sessions, specifically to enable its use).
@RSylvesterTimes: Teachers will have to be regularly relicensed if Labour wins power, says Tristram Hunt in interview for @thetimes http://t.co/BwJioFlHiH
http://web.orange.co.uk/article/news/bedroom_tax_suicide_grandmother_was_exempt
Given the change of dynamics that the loss of Scotland would cause politically south of the border and the potential apathy (based on previous polling attitudes in England particularly) south of the border to Scotland's independence I wouldn't be surprised if Cameron actually won the 2015 election in such circumstances (albeit largest party rather than majority). The key thing would be for him to be able to present a robust position in terms of negotiating Scotland's departure.
It strikes me, in the light of your comment, that (on balance) Mr Cameron's current policy (of not being involved in the referendum, at least personally up front, such as in TV debates with Mr Salmond) seems to be keeping his options open - he can get the credit for a No but blame others for a Yes. Labour (or at least a Labour backbench MP) is fronting the No Campaign with the support of a LD Sec of State ...
'"Westminster" lost Canada.' Where does this site find such ill-informed people...?
The Diplomacy game has started with a bang - received 12 messages so far!
http://dodsparliamentaryawards.co.uk/shortlist
I'm off to a freind's house
Her estranged dropout son who hadn't seen her for years randomly appeared to grab some tabloid cash too. Pity he didn't care enough to cut his drug habit by 20 notes a week to look after his dear old ma, eh?
It was in the Sunday People, so by definition the story was already a pile of fetid old bollocks.
I do wonder about the Telegraph., DT writer asks if things can get any worse for Francois Hollande.
FFS he's a middle aged fat bloke - he heads the world's fourth biggest economy with several millions at his disposal and is now allegedly enjoying the company of a hottish 40 yr old actress as well as a hottish 48 yr old.
Tell you what I'll take on his problems.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10563267/Can-it-get-any-worse-for-Francois-Hollande.html
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I could help out with some of his problems.
Poster 'B': 1921 as an example of territories given by Westminster should not lead to a GE.
Poster 'Carynx': Adds the US, India, and Canada into the pot.
So - eejit please find me the [UK general] elections in the following years:
- 1776,
- 1947, and (arguably)
- 1982
Or whun-awaays and wepwort me.....The one thing that would not be clear is the reaction of the "men in grey suits" as to a vote for independence. To me that is the wild card in this and whilst otherwise I think it is entirely possible Cameron could survive and even benefit, the 'grey suits' (alongside a savaging in the English media) could despite my other thoughts see Cameron removed quickly.
I will read properly and digest when I am less distracted by mobile phone concerns.
One might add, to Mr @smithersjones2013's most interesting point re the men in grey suits, the question of how the LDs would react either to the result itself or the new Tory leader, which is another wild card if perhaps one of a further (third?) order.
It would cause furore within Labour and Libdem ranks but at the same time Clegg and Miliband would be almost totally impotent (being soon to be foreign party leaders) and of course if such a ploy worked it would make the Tories a majority government in Westminster.
There really are some intriguing possibilities to cause political (and legal) mayhem if independence is voted for.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323209/Was-grandmother-driven-suicide-bedroom-tax-Unemployed-woman-53-hit-20-week-charge-dies-leaving-note-saying-Government-blame.html
Really? You surprise me. That's not an argument I expected you to use.
900 teachers in each constituency was it? Could be betting implications folks
After the European elections that is exactly what Ukip plans to do, to Tories, Labour and Lib Dems. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10565175/Nigel-Farage-spells-out-a-serious-message-for-Tories.html
Most parents think teachers generally are doing the best they can in difficult circumstances. The type of education proposal Labour could come up with which might go down well is making it easier to expel troublesome kids who have no interest whatsoever in learning and just act as a malign influence on kids who have willingness to learn (but I don't know how practical such a policy would be); but practically noone buys into this Tory/Westminster narrative that the problems with our education system are caused by lazy, incompetent, "ideological" teachers.
Who in their right mind would hold a golf tournament in Atlanta in this sort of temperature?
I received an email today requesting my help at the USGA US Amateur tournament, to be held at the Atlanta Athletic Club, in - you guessed it - mid-August this year.
On one day at the 2011 event, I drank a dozen bottles of water, yet didn't hit the bathroom once. It was that brutal.
Not all of them obviously, but read through the comments of the likes of Blower to see where I am coming from. Uni lecturers are even worse.
Free schools have enabled the less ideological ones to move away from that rubbish.