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Local lockdowns by stealth – it is all looking rather chaotic – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2021 in General
Local lockdowns by stealth – it is all looking rather chaotic – politicalbetting.com

Govt says you *can* visit family in Bolton etc, but *shouldn't*. Public may just think it's chaos. https://t.co/7KVnSj70if

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,080
    It's a shambles!
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    A few rowdy weegies in the Aberdeen pubs this week escaping their local lockdown.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,808
    "The major fact needs to be repeated that in terms of hospitalisations the pandemic has just about been stopped"

    I think that more important is that there is no prospect of hospitals collapsing because of the stunning success of the vaccination programme. Every current and future restriction should be reviewed, and ideally got rid of, on this basis.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,481
    Lock them up!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,264
    I think many Tories could stand beside a placard saying "Down with this kind of thing!"
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    JBriskin3 said:

    A few rowdy weegies in the Aberdeen pubs this week escaping their local lockdown.

    Most people are no longer interested in the rules. They're observed under sufferance in situations where they can't be easily avoided (notably where businesses are forced to keep asking us to wear gags,) but the Plague is over as far as most people - save for psychologically traumatised lockdown hermits, and a few poor buggers who genuinely can't have the vaccine - are concerned.

    Everyone else expects the rest of the Covid bollocks to be slung in the skip come June 21st, and will grumble about whatever elements of the apparatus of oppression are left in place.

    If I were living in Bedford or Bolton I certainly wouldn't pay any attention to these edicts, and I doubt that many others would, either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 105,481
    This is politics, the government knows it loses all goodwill from the vaccine rollout if they oversee a fourth wave, so they are exercising way too much caution, this behaviour would be understandable if it was happening in a pre vaccine world.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    England PCR positivity

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    Dreadful
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    edited May 2021
    UK cases summary

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    UK R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    UK Hospitals

    image
    image
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,038
    edited May 2021
    FPT:
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    Mr. Boy, I'd be interested to know how far back you'd go with that. Living memory would be my instinctive approach to this sort of thing. How would you handle Caesar, who massacred a tribe (NB including women and children) of Thuringii during peace talks in... 53 BC (I think)?

    I'm not an especial fan of Caesar, certainly not compared to Mr. Eagles, but I don't think that incident should be the prism through which he is viewed, just one of numerous significant events and decisions that he was involved in.

    Although we disagree on some things you do seem reasonable, but many who bang on about this are not. They're iconoclasts, revisionists, and sometimes outright racists. With that in mind, I hope you forgive me if I seemed a little sharp in response.

    No forgiveness necessary.
    It's an interesting question. Personally I would have a very high bar for removing statues. I think it's a question of weighing up the positives and negatives, and you'd need to see the negatives outweighing the positives by a wide margin before acting. Churchill is the obvious kind of figure that would not make the cut for removal. Equally a slave trader doesn't seem to me someone that a society that is knowledgeable about its history would want to see honoured in its Town centres. I see little in Rhodes' history that merits his prominent position on an Oxford college, either.
    Since Caesar was an aggressive foreign invader I'm not sure we should be having a statue of him anyway (do we have one? I have no idea). I am guessing if I were Italian I wouldn't be calling for his statue to be removed.
    Isn't Rhodes' commemoration at Oxford due to him leaving money for Rhodes scholarships?
    He also paid for the Rhodes Building, Oriel on which the statue stands.
    And did he not pay for Rhodes House? Very striking Cotswoldish between-wars architecture - very different from the University Museum almost opposite.
    Almost opposite? It's St Mary's, the University Church, which is opposite, with All Souls and Brasenose to either side. The various museums are much further north.
    A misunderstanding, evidently. The one I mean is additional: this one

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Rhodes+House/@51.7577078,-1.2554712,18.38z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x20878642aafb6de4!8m2!3d51.7576894!4d-1.2550257
    You are correct: I need to read the full post before firing off my own!

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    UK deaths

    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,866
    I read the header initially as Gove says you *can* visit family in Bolton etc, but *shouldn't*.
    I thought the Gover was one of the smarter ones in the confederacy of dunces. Are we approaching (dreadful thought) Fuck Gove?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Age related data scaled to 100K per age group

    image
    image
    image
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    I read the header initially as Gove says you *can* visit family in Bolton etc, but *shouldn't*.
    I thought the Gover was one of the smarter ones in the confederacy of dunces. Are we approaching (dreadful thought) Fuck Gove?

    Are you on LSD or something?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    CFR

    image
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,370

    I think many Tories could stand beside a placard saying "Down with this kind of thing!"

    Much more rational for them to move over to the Lib Dem column, Mr Mark. Then all the real Tories could line up with Gove and young HY and show their true colours. The Conservative Party cannot simply continue as a fudge holding together so many disparate tendencies.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    There’s none of the buzz in LibDem circles that makes me think this is even remotely in play
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,961
    Fishing said:

    "The major fact needs to be repeated that in terms of hospitalisations the pandemic has just about been stopped"

    I think that more important is that there is no prospect of hospitals collapsing because of the stunning success of the vaccination programme. Every current and future restriction should be reviewed, and ideally got rid of, on this basis.

    The Royal Bolton is warning on hospitalisations today I notice. I'm pretty sure they aren't at a very high level even there, but worth keeping half an eye on just to make sure - this is the largest community outbreak by a distance since around February, so the largest since vaccination was widespread. Where infection rates got to 400 for any length of time last winter it distressed but didn't take the NHS close to collapse (it took 8-1200 to get close to that, as in the SE). Like for like, Bolton's October/November peak should be broadly comparable in terms of infection rates, so the difference in hospitalisation rates should be a ready comparison to make.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    edited May 2021

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    I agree.
    Rossendale still climbing though - hopefully it will be the same pattern a few days later.
    @Malmesbury said there were a few others he was looking out for.

    EDIT - a few other councils around Lancashire looking like they've not yet peaked: Preston, Hyndburn, Chorley.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Fishing said:

    "The major fact needs to be repeated that in terms of hospitalisations the pandemic has just about been stopped"

    I think that more important is that there is no prospect of hospitals collapsing because of the stunning success of the vaccination programme. Every current and future restriction should be reviewed, and ideally got rid of, on this basis.

    Well quite. The entire justification for lockdowns, it is worth repeating as many times as is necessary, was to stop the healthcare system from being wrecked by an avalanche of the sick. It wasn't to stop a few people coughing and spluttering and it wasn't Zero Covid. If we're trying to eliminate all risks then we're also back to the parallel arguments for reinstating the Red Flag Act to cut down road traffic deaths, or indeed confining all children to their homes from birth to eighteen years, just in case that measure proves not to be absolutely 100% effective.

    In truth, I expect test, trace and isolate to last past the 21st, along with curbs on international travel and probably masks on public transport, but that strikes me as altogether enough. Any further goalpost moving to try to justify a broad panoply of restrictions being left in place for years should be greatly resisted.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685

    This is politics, the government knows it loses all goodwill from the vaccine rollout if they oversee a fourth wave, so they are exercising way too much caution, this behaviour would be understandable if it was happening in a pre vaccine world.

    OK, so exercising the caution makes a certain twisted sense. Though there is the paradox that defending the benefits of the super vaccine rollout will reduce the actual benefits- if, say, the UK's unlocking lead over Plague Pit Europe is reduced to 2 - 3 weeks.

    But that doesn't explain the half-assed way this not-a-local-lockdown was introduced and rapidly withdrawn. All the political disadvantage of doing the lockdown, none of the public health benefits, and the government looks like they've got the clown cars out of the garage again.

    And whilst anyone who worked in education in the Gove years will choke on the claim that Gove is indispensable because he is the only one in the Cabinet who can get things done, he does have that reputation. Why?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    The alternate view:

    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    7h
    I'm sure there's going to be the usual 'but vaccines now, so this is different' -
    Yes, vaccines will help, but SAGE modelling shows this is where we're headed even with current levels of vaccination with a more transmissible variant with some escape - if we continue as we are.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I cant see any of this affecting Chesham & Amersham. I'm barely noticing whatever I should be annoyed about and I'm more political engaged than 95% of the population. We'll be opening up 4 days after the by-election so if the weather is decent too the Tories will win at a canter
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited May 2021
    The mother of a murdered girl wants the BBC to investigate the way she was treated by journalist Martin Bashir.

    Michelle Hadaway gave Mr Bashir items of her daughter's clothing for DNA testing in 1991, but says no tests were done and the clothes were not returned.

    She said she would like Mr Bashir to apologise, adding: "There's been no apology, even back when I found the receipt and he was approached about it with the receipt, he's still saying I don't remember."

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-57242995
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I just noticed Aspana Begum appears in court the day before the Batley & Spen by-election. That may well have some effect either way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Being totally dispassionate for a moment, the next month or so is going to be fascinating from the plague point of view. The modellers and many in the 'always available for the media' science brigade have pretty much lashed themselves to the mast predicting disaster from B.1.617.2 if we don't lockdown now.

    If it doesn't happen can we pay a lot less attention when the next variant arrives?

  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,658
    Vaccines aren't the only thing on our side this time. We have the season too. It's been utterly miserable, as Leon in particular has been letting you know, and I'm sure that has kept people indoors much more than usual in late May, breathing all over each other. But the weather is turning moderately warmer and drier from later this week.

    We know the virus is seasonal in the UK. That is, I'm 99% sure, because of the effect on behaviour of summer weather on people here. We spend much more time, especially social time, outdoors. Unlike in very hot countries with air conditioning. There will be meet ups over the bank holiday weekend but they will be barbecues. Massive amounts of barbecues as it will be the first suitable weekend of the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a resumption of falling case numbers from early next week onwards. Keep a look out on the Zoe app.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pro_Rata said:

    Fishing said:

    "The major fact needs to be repeated that in terms of hospitalisations the pandemic has just about been stopped"

    I think that more important is that there is no prospect of hospitals collapsing because of the stunning success of the vaccination programme. Every current and future restriction should be reviewed, and ideally got rid of, on this basis.

    The Royal Bolton is warning on hospitalisations today I notice. I'm pretty sure they aren't at a very high level even there, but worth keeping half an eye on just to make sure - this is the largest community outbreak by a distance since around February, so the largest since vaccination was widespread. Where infection rates got to 400 for any length of time last winter it distressed but didn't take the NHS close to collapse (it took 8-1200 to get close to that, as in the SE). Like for like, Bolton's October/November peak should be broadly comparable in terms of infection rates, so the difference in hospitalisation rates should be a ready comparison to make.
    Highly localised spikes in hospital admissions can be managed. You just stick some of the patients into a fleet of ambulances and ship them off to isolation wards elsewhere. Job done.

    The alternate view:

    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    7h
    I'm sure there's going to be the usual 'but vaccines now, so this is different' -
    Yes, vaccines will help, but SAGE modelling shows this is where we're headed even with current levels of vaccination with a more transmissible variant with some escape - if we continue as we are.

    If we kept listening to these doomsday prognostications then we'd be stuck in lockdown until about 2177 - which, in truth, is probably what a lot of these people want.

    Based on what we've seen of the glacially slow spread of the disease outwards from the epicentres of infection so far, I'm calling the panic modelling out as bollocks. Absent a genuinely vaccine defeating variant (of which there is absolutely no sign, and which seems highly unlikely to occur,) the likelihood of a repeat of our January of Horrors would appear to be nil.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited May 2021

    Being totally dispassionate for a moment, the next month or so is going to be fascinating from the plague point of view. The modellers and many in the 'always available for the media' science brigade have pretty much lashed themselves to the mast predicting disaster from B.1.617.2 if we don't lockdown now.

    If it doesn't happen can we pay a lot less attention when the next variant arrives?

    The problem is like a lot of the media whores over this pandemic, they just shift the goal posts. On the other side to the zero covid zealots, we have the likes of Gupta, that rather than admit she was talking crap about some crazy low IFR and most people already having had it a year ago, so we don't need a lockdown...she has shifted to think of the poor, it has such a terrible impact on them, we aren't measuring that impact vs the official death figures.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,312
    edited May 2021
    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,936

    The alternate view:

    Deepti Gurdasani
    @dgurdasani1
    ·
    7h
    I'm sure there's going to be the usual 'but vaccines now, so this is different' -
    Yes, vaccines will help, but SAGE modelling shows this is where we're headed even with current levels of vaccination with a more transmissible variant with some escape - if we continue as we are.

    "more transmissible" hmmm
    "some escape" hmmm hmmmmhh

    It must be said that she is not an expert, looking at her bio and publications. No more an expert than me, in fact (we appear to be a similar distance from being experts on infectious disease - and I'm no expert!)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,827
    edited May 2021

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    Yes. We are going to get this kind of thing for a while, aren't we?

    It isn't going away (as has been said many times) but the ability of the virus to spread in any significant way is going to be increasingly limited.

    The government will have to hold the line against the inevitable press panic each time there is a local outbreak.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The terms of the debate here show that all that's needed is a covid variant that even partially evades the vaccines and we are back in lockdown for three months.

    Then another round of vaccines.

    Then another three months lockdown

    Once you decided to play the game, you became subject to the rules.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    JBriskin3 said:
    I am surprised this hasn't happened a lot more often. It just blatant rip offs of branding.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Cookie said:

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    I agree.
    Rossendale still climbing though - hopefully it will be the same pattern a few days later.
    @Malmesbury said there were a few others he was looking out for.

    EDIT - a few other councils around Lancashire looking like they've not yet peaked: Preston, Hyndburn, Chorley.
    I think the vaccine effect can be seen clearly here

    image

    and here

    image
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    ClippP said:

    I think many Tories could stand beside a placard saying "Down with this kind of thing!"

    Much more rational for them to move over to the Lib Dem column, Mr Mark. Then all the real Tories could line up with Gove and young HY and show their true colours. The Conservative Party cannot simply continue as a fudge holding together so many disparate tendencies.
    There is only one thing that unites or needs to unite Tories, and that is distrust and fear of the Labour Party. When that goes, the coalition crumbles. But not until.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Being totally dispassionate for a moment, the next month or so is going to be fascinating from the plague point of view. The modellers and many in the 'always available for the media' science brigade have pretty much lashed themselves to the mast predicting disaster from B.1.617.2 if we don't lockdown now.

    If it doesn't happen can we pay a lot less attention when the next variant arrives?

    Best of luck with that.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    edited May 2021

    Cookie said:

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    I agree.
    Rossendale still climbing though - hopefully it will be the same pattern a few days later.
    @Malmesbury said there were a few others he was looking out for.

    EDIT - a few other councils around Lancashire looking like they've not yet peaked: Preston, Hyndburn, Chorley.
    I think the vaccine effect can be seen clearly here

    image

    and here

    image
    Bloody plague spreading yuff....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    TimS said:

    Vaccines aren't the only thing on our side this time. We have the season too. It's been utterly miserable, as Leon in particular has been letting you know, and I'm sure that has kept people indoors much more than usual in late May, breathing all over each other. But the weather is turning moderately warmer and drier from later this week.

    We know the virus is seasonal in the UK. That is, I'm 99% sure, because of the effect on behaviour of summer weather on people here. We spend much more time, especially social time, outdoors. Unlike in very hot countries with air conditioning. There will be meet ups over the bank holiday weekend but they will be barbecues. Massive amounts of barbecues as it will be the first suitable weekend of the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a resumption of falling case numbers from early next week onwards. Keep a look out on the Zoe app.

    Last i looked the models don't factor in seasonality. A fact which apparently was only made widespread when a 2nd year undergraduate maths student looked into them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    Vaccination data

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142

    The terms of the debate here show that all that's needed is a covid variant that even partially evades the vaccines and we are back in lockdown for three months.

    Then another round of vaccines.

    Then another three months lockdown

    Once you decided to play the game, you became subject to the rules.

    There isn't a 'don't play the game' option though.
    You appear to be blaming people for accepting vaccinations as though implying not doing so would have brought forward release from lockdown. I can't see how one would lead to the other.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:
    I am surprised this hasn't happened a lot more often. It just blatant rip offs of branding.
    I was just trying to note 1700 BST in a flashy way tbh.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The terms of the debate here show that all that's needed is a covid variant that even partially evades the vaccines and we are back in lockdown for three months.

    Then another round of vaccines.

    Then another three months lockdown

    Once you decided to play the game, you became subject to the rules.

    Fortunately I think the balance is finally tipping in favour of telling Covid-19 to go fuck itself. The vaccines are working, they are seen to be working, and - most importantly - the Government must now assume that it will lose all the goodwill from the vaccination project if it tries to lock us all back up again.

    Besides which, based on observation of what's happened with the variants and my own very limited understanding of how coronaviruses tend to behave, I don't think that a significant degree of vaccine escape is likely. Au contraire, the disease seems to be evolving down a cul-de-sac. Each new variant carries an incrementally smaller advantage, and represents a more marginal increase in the danger of the disease to health, relative to the steps that have preceded it.

    It looks very much as if this thing is over as an emergency. We probably will see more infections, hospitalisations and deaths from Covid come the Winter, but probably not nearly so many as there will be from the flu.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    edited May 2021
    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,473
    William Shakespeare dies: First man in the world to receive Covid vaccine dies aged 81 of unrelated illness
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,808

    The terms of the debate here show that all that's needed is a covid variant that even partially evades the vaccines and we are back in lockdown for three months.

    Then another round of vaccines.

    Then another three months lockdown

    Once you decided to play the game, you became subject to the rules.

    Fortunately I think the balance is finally tipping in favour of telling Covid-19 to go fuck itself. The vaccines are working, they are seen to be working, and - most importantly - the Government must now assume that it will lose all the goodwill from the vaccination project if it tries to lock us all back up again.

    Besides which, based on observation of what's happened with the variants and my own very limited understanding of how coronaviruses tend to behave, I don't think that a significant degree of vaccine escape is likely.
    Even if it was, we simply cannot suspend normal life any longer. It's been far too long as it is. We'd have to learn to live with an endemic virus and manage it as best we can.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    Brom said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I cant see any of this affecting Chesham & Amersham. I'm barely noticing whatever I should be annoyed about and I'm more political engaged than 95% of the population. We'll be opening up 4 days after the by-election so if the weather is decent too the Tories will win at a canter
    I hope you're not a betting man. The purpose of by election campaigns is to engage with the public. The Lib Dems are pretty good at that so while 95% might not be engaged with the issues, I can guarantee you that the honest burghers of Amersham and Chesham will be.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    edited May 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    Anyone is entitled to inspect the marked register, for either electoral or research purposes, and anyone who has been a candidate is entitled to ask for a copy, for a small fee. It’s a useful safeguard against fraud, enabling people who have been involved with the campaign to cross-check against their records of deaths, house moves, etc. and also to see which postal votes came back. And it is exceptionally useful information for any campaigner - for example if I stood again, given the low turnout it would make a lot of sense to canvass first (or only) those who have voted before.

    By road, turnout in my patch varied from 20% to over 70%, which is also useful information in terms of knowing the areas most worthwhile to campaign.

    But you’re right that most ordinary voters have no idea that whether or not they voted is public information. Now and again I used to enjoy myself on the doorstep with the odd voter who claimed, just to get rid of you, that they never ever voted...

    The police and secret service are entitled to inspect the ballot papers and record of who each was issued to. The details are all on the EC website if you know where to look....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343
    edited May 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited May 2021
    Fenman said:

    Brom said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I cant see any of this affecting Chesham & Amersham. I'm barely noticing whatever I should be annoyed about and I'm more political engaged than 95% of the population. We'll be opening up 4 days after the by-election so if the weather is decent too the Tories will win at a canter
    I hope you're not a betting man. The purpose of by election campaigns is to engage with the public. The Lib Dems are pretty good at that so while 95% might not be engaged with the issues, I can guarantee you that the honest burghers of Amersham and Chesham will be.
    I am a betting man but I've stated on here a few days ago why I don't think Chesham & Amersham is fertile Lib Dem ground, and it doesn't look like the timing is good for them either. Esher & Walton this ain't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    edited May 2021
    Ah well, they've got a nice office in Brussels:

    NEW: Scottish Government loses court battle over £5m Ferguson shipyard insurance payout

    https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1397174072904232960?s=20

    Wonder how much the legal fees were?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    Where is the partial data for 20th onwards from? Is that from the Dashboard?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    I don't know why someone doesn't set up a Pothole Party. They'd probably do quite well.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    edited May 2021
    DougSeal said:

    The more data that comes in, the more it looks like this variant is under control.

    Bolton has now had several days showing cases per specimen day dropping (and most of these are now clear of data lag)

    Bedford looks to have peaked.

    Blackburn has either peaked or is close to it.

    Hospitalisations are looking to be falling again from partial data for the next four days.

    Sefton has peaked and fallen again.

    This is very different to when the Kent variant swept the nation and caused cases to launch into the stratosphere. This is spluttering and backfiring at best.

    I would expect hospitalisations to plateau or gently trend upwards for about four or five days until those increased cases are taken into account; if not, then vaccination has double-whammied the variant by blocking the spread and reducing the impact when it has taken hold (even with areas of low vaccine takeup)

    Where is the partial data for 20th onwards from? Is that from the Dashboard?
    https://i.imgur.com/WuAOH4V.png

    Latest cases data from the PHE data feed
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,510
    You can look on the dashboard and click “By nation”.
    The England, Northern Ireland, and Wales admissions data for the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd is already there.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    Anyone is entitled to inspect the marked register, for either electoral or research purposes, and anyone who has been a candidate is entitled to ask for a copy, for a small fee. It’s a useful safeguard against fraud, enabling people who have been involved with the campaign to cross-check against their records of deaths, house moves, etc. and also to see which postal votes came back. And it is exceptionally useful information for any campaigner - for example if I stood again, given the low turnout it would make a lot of sense to canvass first (or only) those who have voted before.

    By road, turnout in my patch varied from 20% to over 70%, which is also useful information in terms of knowing the areas most worthwhile to campaign.

    But you’re right that most ordinary voters have no idea that whether or not they voted is public information. Now and again I used to enjoy myself on the doorstep with the odd voter who claimed, just to get rid of you, that they never ever voted...

    The police and secret service are entitled to inspect the ballot papers and record of who each was issued to. The details are all on the EC website if you know where to look....
    Wow, certainly had no idea about the last bit!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    The national booking system is now accepting 30 and 31 year olds, at least a few of my friends that age have just been able to book appointments.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    You can look on the dashboard and click “By nation”.
    The England, Northern Ireland, and Wales admissions data for the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd is already there.

    Many thanks.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    edited May 2021

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    Anyone is entitled to inspect the marked register, for either electoral or research purposes, and anyone who has been a candidate is entitled to ask for a copy, for a small fee. It’s a useful safeguard against fraud, enabling people who have been involved with the campaign to cross-check against their records of deaths, house moves, etc. and also to see which postal votes came back. And it is exceptionally useful information for any campaigner - for example if I stood again, given the low turnout it would make a lot of sense to canvass first (or only) those who have voted before.

    By road, turnout in my patch varied from 20% to over 70%, which is also useful information in terms of knowing the areas most worthwhile to campaign.

    But you’re right that most ordinary voters have no idea that whether or not they voted is public information. Now and again I used to enjoy myself on the doorstep with the odd voter who claimed, just to get rid of you, that they never ever voted...

    The police and secret service are entitled to inspect the ballot papers and record of who each was issued to. The details are all on the EC website if you know where to look....
    Wow, certainly had no idea about the last bit!
    The police makes sense if they are investigating electoral fraud and I would assume that they can't just look at them at whim but only for an active investigation.

    Frankly political parties shouldn't, we already have turnout issues and only canvassing those that vote isn't going to help them. Parties should be blinded to this information so they have to try and persuade everyone to vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scientist at PH Wales:


    Catherine MooreMicrobeDNAFlag of European Union
    @SmallRedOne
    ·
    7h
    The pandemic isn’t over, but we have to keep one step ahead because I think SARS-CoV-2 is with us now. The vaccines at the moment don’t look good enough for eradication plans and equity is still a major problem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135

    You can look on the dashboard and click “By nation”.
    The England, Northern Ireland, and Wales admissions data for the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd is already there.

    Ah, for admissions... The admission data tends not to be revised once it is actually present.

    image
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    edited May 2021

    You can look on the dashboard and click “By nation”.
    The England, Northern Ireland, and Wales admissions data for the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd is already there.

    Ah, for admissions... The admission data tends not to be revised once it is actually present.

    image
    Thanks chaps. This pandemic has really shown up my hopelessness with numbers.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Absolute codswallop, you canvass me and I decide to tell you I am not voting then on the day I vote doesn't prove fraud it just proves I changed my mind/decided to lie to you/wanted you to just go away.

    How does someone telling you they arent voting then on the day vote indicate fraud in any way shape or form. Besides aren't you one of those banging on about how we don't need voter id as fraud is so rare.....this seems to fall in the same category.

    At least be truthful the main reason you defend this is as KJH said its enormously useful to parties to know who to talk to.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,135
    DougSeal said:

    You can look on the dashboard and click “By nation”.
    The England, Northern Ireland, and Wales admissions data for the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd is already there.

    Ah, for admissions... The admission data tends not to be revised once it is actually present.

    image
    Thanks chaps. This pandemic has really shown up my hopelessness with numbers.
    So you are an order of magnitude more knowledgeable about numbers than Professor Peston, then.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354

    Scientist at PH Wales:


    Catherine MooreMicrobeDNAFlag of European Union
    @SmallRedOne
    ·
    7h
    The pandemic isn’t over, but we have to keep one step ahead because I think SARS-CoV-2 is with us now. The vaccines at the moment don’t look good enough for eradication plans and equity is still a major problem.

    They need sidelining altogether
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    This is the kind of thing Boris is weak on. Detail.

    He's great on the broad brush but needs a cohesive, united, utterly loyal team beneath him who decide on details with one mind and act accordingly.

    Which they don't.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,327
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    I don't know why someone doesn't set up a Pothole Party. They'd probably do quite well.
    Better than the pothead party?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    edited May 2021
    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Absolute codswallop, you canvass me and I decide to tell you I am not voting then on the day I vote doesn't prove fraud it just proves I changed my mind/decided to lie to you/wanted you to just go away.

    How does someone telling you they arent voting then on the day vote indicate fraud in any way shape or form. Besides aren't you one of those banging on about how we don't need voter id as fraud is so rare.....this seems to fall in the same category.

    At least be truthful the main reason you defend this is as KJH said its enormously useful to parties to know who to talk to.
    Of course, but one errant entry doesn’t prove fraud. And I would always have the option of calling on you again to see what you had to say - if I arrived on your doorstep and was polite and explained I was looking into potential electoral fraud, there’s a good chance that even you might give me an honest answer ;)

    What you’d be looking for are a stack of suspicious voters - i.e. you canvass someone and they tell you that their son is away at university in the US - if they’ve voted you wonder whether your hypothetical nefarious opponent got the same info and arranged a personation. Of course, things like that hardly ever happen, but that’s how you’d check for them, all the same.

    And only if you lost by a handful of votes, of course.

    Yes, the data is tremendously useful for electoral purposes. Especially once you start cross-correlating it with other data, as most modern electoral software enables you to do. For example, in my old ward, the probability that you’d vote in a local election topped 75% if you’d lived at your address for over 20 years, but was only 20% if you’d moved in since the previous election. If you’d been canvassed, or signed one of our petitions, or corresponded with your councillor in any way, the probability that you’d vote was significantly increased. Etc.

    And, most basically of all, if you’re on someone’s doorstep and they tell you they never vote, when you can see that they do, or they tell you that they voted for you last time, when you can see that they didn’t, it’s useful to take into account when weighing up whatever else they may be telling you...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,658
    The next stage I've always suspected will be to move from Covid-19 to other areas of public health where some form of partial social distancing or seasonal measures to curb flu could take hold. The trouble is that side of the argument can always play the "we just want to save lives" card, and will be able to show - via the experience of this pandemic - that these measures save lives.

    There is a point at which sensible policies to prevent health system meltdown and protect people shade into excessive long term control over the population. I don't subscribe to the slippery slope theory because it's perfectly possible to make balanced judgments on the risks, but we are getting to a point with population immunity levels where things will need to normalise.

    Thankfully there are some stirrings in the Liberal centre / centre-left of some of the old anti-authoritarian instinct. Dislike of both left and right wing authoritarianism is one reason I joined the Lib Dems, so it was a bit worrying seeing them seem to side wholly with the indy-SAGE worldview last year. I think (hope) that was just an artefact of the chaotic early months of the government's handling of the pandemic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821

    William Shakespeare dies: First man in the world to receive Covid vaccine dies aged 81 of unrelated illness

    Alls Well that Ends Well.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,046
    MaxPB said:

    The national booking system is now accepting 30 and 31 year olds, at least a few of my friends that age have just been able to book appointments.

    My 26 year old son was called in and had his today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Probably a much better way of picking up impersonation than photo ID.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Probably a much better way of picking up impersonation than photo ID.
    Strange then as I don't know anyone that has ever had a visit after an election from a canvasser after telling them they won't vote......of course you will be able to point out all the electoral fraud this has caught...links to stories.....lib dems uncover electoral fraud stories etc? No?

    Give over this is a tool for parties to only cover those they think will vote and probably does more harm than good to turnout. If they had no insight into who voted last time and had to visit all voters who knows just maybe some of the cant be arsed might get motivated.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,343
    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    We all don't know lots of things. The electoral register and marked register are made available to political parties. It isn't a secret, but I grant you that unless you are involved you may not know this.

    Every election we always get outcry that your vote can be determined by the number allocated to the ballot paper. This is in fact true. Your vote is not a secret in the sense that if your ballot paper is seen anytime after you have voted it can be determined that the paper belonged to you and therefore how you voted.

    The secrecy is maintained by the fact that your ballot paper can not easily be seen. Normally a judge has to order the opening of the ballot boxes after the count if there is an issue. During the count activist will be witnessing the papers being counted so in theory could work it out also, but in practice this is impossible as you only see a subset of votes and would have to memorize numbers and votes for each and every ballot paper you saw. When doing the verification part of the count this is often done upside down, much to the annoyance of the activists who are trying to do rough counts so as to determine where to put their checkers. So you only really get to see the ballot paper clearly for the main count.

    In the old days cameras weren't allowed to be used during the count. I don't know about now as everyone has one and I haven't been to a count in years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    MaxPB said:

    The national booking system is now accepting 30 and 31 year olds, at least a few of my friends that age have just been able to book appointments.

    The headline site still says 32
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821

    TimS said:

    Vaccines aren't the only thing on our side this time. We have the season too. It's been utterly miserable, as Leon in particular has been letting you know, and I'm sure that has kept people indoors much more than usual in late May, breathing all over each other. But the weather is turning moderately warmer and drier from later this week.

    We know the virus is seasonal in the UK. That is, I'm 99% sure, because of the effect on behaviour of summer weather on people here. We spend much more time, especially social time, outdoors. Unlike in very hot countries with air conditioning. There will be meet ups over the bank holiday weekend but they will be barbecues. Massive amounts of barbecues as it will be the first suitable weekend of the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a resumption of falling case numbers from early next week onwards. Keep a look out on the Zoe app.

    Last i looked the models don't factor in seasonality. A fact which apparently was only made widespread when a 2nd year undergraduate maths student looked into them.
    I am not much convinced by seasonality. Our first wave was in the rather nice spring weather, as was Spain, Italy etc. We had an autumn spike then the Christmas one.

    But looking at other countries, there doesn't seem to be a strong seasonality, when taking in local climates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002

    The terms of the debate here show that all that's needed is a covid variant that even partially evades the vaccines and we are back in lockdown for three months.

    Then another round of vaccines.

    Then another three months lockdown

    Once you decided to play the game, you became subject to the rules.

    In the US, covid restrictions have been dismantled in most states. In Denmark, pretty much all restrictions have been lifted, and even countries like France are unlocking.

    Why do you think the political pressures are so different in the UK?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    Ooh.

    Will this continue all the way to the Unite Leadership Election in the summer?

    (Gallant is the libel lawyer.)


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Probably a much better way of picking up impersonation than photo ID.
    Strange then as I don't know anyone that has ever had a visit after an election from a canvasser after telling them they won't vote......of course you will be able to point out all the electoral fraud this has caught...links to stories.....lib dems uncover electoral fraud stories etc? No?

    Give over this is a tool for parties to only cover those they think will vote and probably does more harm than good to turnout. If they had no insight into who voted last time and had to visit all voters who knows just maybe some of the cant be arsed might get motivated.
    Conclusion: electoral fraud is incredibly rare in the UK. Especially any that makes an actual difference.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,821
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Probably a much better way of picking up impersonation than photo ID.
    Strange then as I don't know anyone that has ever had a visit after an election from a canvasser after telling them they won't vote......of course you will be able to point out all the electoral fraud this has caught...links to stories.....lib dems uncover electoral fraud stories etc? No?

    Give over this is a tool for parties to only cover those they think will vote and probably does more harm than good to turnout. If they had no insight into who voted last time and had to visit all voters who knows just maybe some of the cant be arsed might get motivated.
    Perhaps the point is that the dog doesn't bark.

    All parties do this, at least in marginals, and do not report personation. Marginals would be the place most vulnerable to this, so it is supportive evidence that it is marginal or nonexistent as an electoral issue.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    We all don't know lots of things. The electoral register and marked register are made available to political parties. It isn't a secret, but I grant you that unless you are involved you may not know this.

    Every election we always get outcry that your vote can be determined by the number allocated to the ballot paper. This is in fact true. Your vote is not a secret in the sense that if your ballot paper is seen anytime after you have voted it can be determined that the paper belonged to you and therefore how you voted.

    The secrecy is maintained by the fact that your ballot paper can not easily be seen. Normally a judge has to order the opening of the ballot boxes after the count if there is an issue. During the count activist will be witnessing the papers being counted so in theory could work it out also, but in practice this is impossible as you only see a subset of votes and would have to memorize numbers and votes for each and every ballot paper you saw. When doing the verification part of the count this is often done upside down, much to the annoyance of the activists who are trying to do rough counts so as to determine where to put their checkers. So you only really get to see the ballot paper clearly for the main count.

    In the old days cameras weren't allowed to be used during the count. I don't know about now as everyone has one and I haven't been to a count in years.
    I have no objection to the numbers and have long known they could be used to find out who voted which way because I have confidence that would only be allowed under proper judicial reasons.

    I do very much object to political parties being handed information on whether I voted or not as it is none of their damn business. They should be trying to get me to vote for them in every election. Especially when its used for mild titillation and prurient interest by people like yourself who finds it "amusing to check up on people who said they would vote for me but didn't vote at all"
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    The easiest way to screen for fraud is to filter your canvass data for all those put down as ‘not voting’ and cross-check with the marked register. Which takes five minutes using the election software most parties have. There is no way the EC could do this.
    Probably a much better way of picking up impersonation than photo ID.
    Strange then as I don't know anyone that has ever had a visit after an election from a canvasser after telling them they won't vote......of course you will be able to point out all the electoral fraud this has caught...links to stories.....lib dems uncover electoral fraud stories etc? No?

    Give over this is a tool for parties to only cover those they think will vote and probably does more harm than good to turnout. If they had no insight into who voted last time and had to visit all voters who knows just maybe some of the cant be arsed might get motivated.
    Conclusion: electoral fraud is incredibly rare in the UK. Especially any that makes an actual difference.
    Then you won't object to not having access to that info anymore will you as you obviously don't need it for what any reasonable person would call necessary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,675
    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    We all don't know lots of things. The electoral register and marked register are made available to political parties. It isn't a secret, but I grant you that unless you are involved you may not know this.

    Every election we always get outcry that your vote can be determined by the number allocated to the ballot paper. This is in fact true. Your vote is not a secret in the sense that if your ballot paper is seen anytime after you have voted it can be determined that the paper belonged to you and therefore how you voted.

    The secrecy is maintained by the fact that your ballot paper can not easily be seen. Normally a judge has to order the opening of the ballot boxes after the count if there is an issue. During the count activist will be witnessing the papers being counted so in theory could work it out also, but in practice this is impossible as you only see a subset of votes and would have to memorize numbers and votes for each and every ballot paper you saw. When doing the verification part of the count this is often done upside down, much to the annoyance of the activists who are trying to do rough counts so as to determine where to put their checkers. So you only really get to see the ballot paper clearly for the main count.

    In the old days cameras weren't allowed to be used during the count. I don't know about now as everyone has one and I haven't been to a count in years.
    Cameras still aren’t supposed to be used.

    But you’re wrong on one point: verification is done paper face up, specifically to avoid anyone monitoring it seeing the ballot paper number.

    Despite voter bribery/intimidation having died a death pretty soon after the secret ballot was introduced, many of our electoral practices continue on the assumption that this is the principal threat to our democracy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,658
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Vaccines aren't the only thing on our side this time. We have the season too. It's been utterly miserable, as Leon in particular has been letting you know, and I'm sure that has kept people indoors much more than usual in late May, breathing all over each other. But the weather is turning moderately warmer and drier from later this week.

    We know the virus is seasonal in the UK. That is, I'm 99% sure, because of the effect on behaviour of summer weather on people here. We spend much more time, especially social time, outdoors. Unlike in very hot countries with air conditioning. There will be meet ups over the bank holiday weekend but they will be barbecues. Massive amounts of barbecues as it will be the first suitable weekend of the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a resumption of falling case numbers from early next week onwards. Keep a look out on the Zoe app.

    Last i looked the models don't factor in seasonality. A fact which apparently was only made widespread when a 2nd year undergraduate maths student looked into them.
    I am not much convinced by seasonality. Our first wave was in the rather nice spring weather, as was Spain, Italy etc. We had an autumn spike then the Christmas one.

    But looking at other countries, there doesn't seem to be a strong seasonality, when taking in local climates.
    It was nice spring weather during a lot of the lockdown but the seeds of the big surge were sown in early March. I remember the first weekend of lockdown doing a "local walk" and there was sleet in the air. By then the damage was done.

    Despite progressive opening up through late spring and summer cases stayed stable. They rose again in Autumn. Tellingly the big outbreaks during the summer were in places where people worked or lived in close quarters indoors: meat processing plants, sweatshops, fruit pickers' dorms.

    It's very visible how differently people socialise in the warmer months in Britain - outdoors rather than in. Particularly at multi-family and mass gatherings. In other hotter climates like Brazil or Southern US it's so hot everyone stays indoors in the air con. So of course the seasonality pattern looks different. I'm not a buyer of the Vitamin D idea (though perhaps it plays a part), I think it's simply behavioural.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Vaccines aren't the only thing on our side this time. We have the season too. It's been utterly miserable, as Leon in particular has been letting you know, and I'm sure that has kept people indoors much more than usual in late May, breathing all over each other. But the weather is turning moderately warmer and drier from later this week.

    We know the virus is seasonal in the UK. That is, I'm 99% sure, because of the effect on behaviour of summer weather on people here. We spend much more time, especially social time, outdoors. Unlike in very hot countries with air conditioning. There will be meet ups over the bank holiday weekend but they will be barbecues. Massive amounts of barbecues as it will be the first suitable weekend of the season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a resumption of falling case numbers from early next week onwards. Keep a look out on the Zoe app.

    Last i looked the models don't factor in seasonality. A fact which apparently was only made widespread when a 2nd year undergraduate maths student looked into them.
    I am not much convinced by seasonality. Our first wave was in the rather nice spring weather, as was Spain, Italy etc. We had an autumn spike then the Christmas one.

    But looking at other countries, there doesn't seem to be a strong seasonality, when taking in local climates.
    Our first wave peaked at the end of winter and it declined quite rapidly over spring.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,657
    edited May 2021
    IanB2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Fenman said:

    All this chaos just makes Amersham and Chesham more interesting. Postal hit the mat this week which just makes Cummings appearance before the Select Committee more interesting.

    I spent three hours delivering leaflets in a wealthy part of Chalfont last weekend. I met four voters.

    Voter #1 Came to the door the instant I'd thrust the leaflet through his letter box.
    Voter: What's your mandate?
    Me: [Thinking should I go on greenery or internationalism then inspired] It's in the leaflet.
    Voter: The potholes here are shocking and we pay too much. How long have this lot been in power?
    Me: At least 20 years? [Actually it is since 1974 when the constituency was created]
    Voter: Shocking
    Me: Time for a change
    Voter - yes definitely.

    Voter #2 [on the doorstep]
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] We think it's time for a change
    Voter: yes definitely

    Voter #3 [same thing]

    Voter #4
    Me: [Handing over the leaflet] Time for a change
    Voter: Don't give me that rubbish.
    Me: Are you going to vote?
    Voter: Of course I am. We are really privileged in this country. I'm 100% certain to vote. What a stupid question.
    Me: Only 40% vote in by elections. If you said you weren't going to vote, I've have said to you what you just said.
    Voter: Impertinent.
    I avoided giving the V sign.

    Conclusion: Some wealthy electors think it's time for a change and some are edgy.
    By coincidence I just got copy of the marked register for my town council election. Looking up the various people who have since assured that they voted for me is always good for a bit of wry amusement.

    66% of postal votes came back, with an overall turnout of 36%, so that about 27% of the total votes counted came in by post.

    Interestingly, despite all the COVID fuss, very few late or single-election PV applications. Presumably people worried about the virus just didn’t bother voting.
    I am surprised you are given that, it is after all meant to be a secret ballot and an abstention is also a vote. It is a practise that should stop and those records kept confidential.
    It has always been done and is a useful tool to the parties. It also helps that you don't waste your time and the electors time who never voter. Whether you vote or not is not considered secret. I don't agree that abstention is a vote. I would accept that a spoilt paper is a vote. A distinction between a protest and can't be arsed.
    A decision to abstain is very much a vote and quite different to can't be arsed. Parties absolutlely should not have access to that information. We always complain about marginal constituencies having a malign influence on elections and this just basically creates marginal voters within a constituency ie those that voted last time.

    Parties should make an effort to sway all the voters not just the ones that they think might cast a vote. The fraud investigation can as easily be done by the electoral commission. Also I would have thought against data protection laws as no one has ever informed me when I do turn up to vote that the fact I voted may be sold off to political parties. This law should be changed soonest.
    We all don't know lots of things. The electoral register and marked register are made available to political parties. It isn't a secret, but I grant you that unless you are involved you may not know this.

    Every election we always get outcry that your vote can be determined by the number allocated to the ballot paper. This is in fact true. Your vote is not a secret in the sense that if your ballot paper is seen anytime after you have voted it can be determined that the paper belonged to you and therefore how you voted.

    The secrecy is maintained by the fact that your ballot paper can not easily be seen. Normally a judge has to order the opening of the ballot boxes after the count if there is an issue. During the count activist will be witnessing the papers being counted so in theory could work it out also, but in practice this is impossible as you only see a subset of votes and would have to memorize numbers and votes for each and every ballot paper you saw. When doing the verification part of the count this is often done upside down, much to the annoyance of the activists who are trying to do rough counts so as to determine where to put their checkers. So you only really get to see the ballot paper clearly for the main count.

    In the old days cameras weren't allowed to be used during the count. I don't know about now as everyone has one and I haven't been to a count in years.
    Cameras still aren’t supposed to be used.

    But you’re wrong on one point: verification is done paper face up, specifically to avoid anyone monitoring it seeing the ballot paper number.

    Despite voter bribery/intimidation having died a death pretty soon after the secret ballot was introduced, many of our electoral practices continue on the assumption that this is the principal threat to our democracy.
    And bribery/intimidation once more a thing because of postal voting ubiquity. That needs to go too
This discussion has been closed.