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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 9th 2014

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  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Haverhill is a UKIP gain UKIP 529 Lab 240 Con 54
    and also the TC seat UKIP 630 Lab 229 LD 107
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    @Richard_Tyndall

    Marks and Spencers are not using public money for their business./ Free Schools are.

    I repeat, I am in favour of Free schools. I am also in favour of accountable and open Government. We had to put up with 13 years of Labour hiding everything from us and then lying in the bits of information they did release. I would hope that the Tories would not continue in the same manner.


    ...

    Gove's requirements are to release information as required by statute and agreement and to manage additional release in accordance with his and the government's political interests.

    There is no doubt that cost information on Free Schools will be made available in due course. But at this stage in the development of the programme it is not in Gove's or to government's interest to foster debate on the costings which would detract from the primary political purpose of the Free Schools initiative.

    Managing information is a basic day to day management task.

    'primary political purpose' is most certainly not a reason to prevent proper public scrutiny of publicly funded organisations. Nor does it matter if it is Gove's or the Government's interest. What matters is whether it is in the public interest to release the information and it appears the Information Commissioner has already ruled that it is.
    If Gove has broken the law then I fully support any action which might be taken in the courts to punish him and reverse any incorrect decisions he may have made.

    But even without knowing the detailed facts, I would expect that Gove - more likely than not - is operating within his discretionary powers.

    And proper public scrutiny must operate within the limits permitted by law and established practice.

    This is not an issue of cost accountability: costs are being used as a proxy for a war on the basic policy. Provided Gove complies with established disclosure requirements then I see no reason why he should be compelled to release discretionary additional information.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Correction UKIP 529 Lab 240 Con 157 LD 54
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Weird , the edit function seems to have vanished
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    AveryLP said:

    @Avery

    Mr Pole,

    how come the our cousins outremanche have got a 80% increase in money from the EIB tp spend on infrastructure - upgraded landing strips for their mistresses presumably - yet the UK which has some of the crappest infrastructure for any advanced country isn't bothering ? What is Gormless george up to or not up to more likely ? I suspect a bad case of Cableitis.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/01/09/20002-20140109ARTFIG00715-l-union-europeenne-n-a-jamais-autant-aide-l-economie-francaise.php

    The frebch are very fond of single state and supra-national investment banks. Remember Jacques Attali, the EBRD and the red travertine marble in the bank's new head office?

    These organisations provide sinecures for loyal hacks and allow politicians to interfere in resource allocation.

    The Anglo-Saxon model of having powerful markets and independent distributors of finance is less flawed than the continental model.

    Goldman Sachs anyday over the EIB.
    I obviously agree with ALP, although as a Goldman alumnus, I'm not sure my views should be trusted. How big is the EIB, as a matter of interest? And who owns it?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @computer1

    'O/T Can anyone think why Gove will not produce the figures for the amount of money he is investing in Free Schools?'

    Any idea why New Labour refused to disclose the cost of Academies?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Bloody Hell - Can see UKIP winning some seats in the East of England...
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Bloody Hell - Can see UKIP winning some seats in the East of England...

    Based on a result in a council by election where the turnout was 18.5% ????
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:

    @Avery

    Mr Pole,

    how come the our cousins outremanche have got a 80% increase in money from the EIB tp spend on infrastructure - upgraded landing strips for their mistresses presumably - yet the UK which has some of the crappest infrastructure for any advanced country isn't bothering ? What is Gormless george up to or not up to more likely ? I suspect a bad case of Cableitis.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/01/09/20002-20140109ARTFIG00715-l-union-europeenne-n-a-jamais-autant-aide-l-economie-francaise.php

    The frebch are very fond of single state and supra-national investment banks. Remember Jacques Attali, the EBRD and the red travertine marble in the bank's new head office?

    These organisations provide sinecures for loyal hacks and allow politicians to interfere in resource allocation.

    The Anglo-Saxon model of having powerful markets and independent distributors of finance is less flawed than the continental model.

    Goldman Sachs anyday over the EIB.
    I obviously agree with ALP, although as a Goldman alumnus, I'm not sure my views should be trusted. How big is the EIB, as a matter of interest? And who owns it?
    Capital EUR 242 bn (EUR 71 bn from global markets). Lending EUR 70-75 bn per annum.

    Owned by EU Members with charter requiring it to operate in support of EU policies.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2014
    If Paul Nuttall on QT is any measure, I cannot see the Kippers doing well in Wythenshaw.

    Chukka equally useless. Norman Baker dismal.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2014
    If Umunna stands as Labour leader, will this be his "Obama style" catchphrase?

    http://youtu.be/1XV5_WagxZg
  • AveryLP said:

    @Avery

    Mr Pole,

    how come the our cousins outremanche have got a 80% increase in money from the EIB tp spend on infrastructure - upgraded landing strips for their mistresses presumably - yet the UK which has some of the crappest infrastructure for any advanced country isn't bothering ? What is Gormless george up to or not up to more likely ? I suspect a bad case of Cableitis.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/01/09/20002-20140109ARTFIG00715-l-union-europeenne-n-a-jamais-autant-aide-l-economie-francaise.php

    The frebch are very fond of single state and supra-national investment banks. Remember Jacques Attali, the EBRD and the red travertine marble in the bank's new head office?

    These organisations provide sinecures for loyal hacks and allow politicians to interfere in resource allocation.

    The Anglo-Saxon model of having powerful markets and independent distributors of finance is less flawed than the continental model.

    Goldman Sachs anyday over the EIB.
    Was it not Goldman Sachs who facilitated the entry of Greece into the Eurozone with some rather 'creative' accounting? Not sure I would prefer either of them.
  • If Paul Nuttall on QT is any measure, I cannot see the Kippers doing well in Wythenshaw.

    Chukka equally useless. Norman Baker dismal.

    Scouters have never been popular in Manchester!

    Baker was shocking, Chukka is a duplicitous liar, was impressed with Nadine though.
  • Scousers, sorry.

    What happened to the edit button!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited January 2014

    Scousers, sorry.

    What happened to the edit button!

    Seems to have vanished

    Oh no it is back now
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree, I do not like Nadines politics, but she brings something very different to the Tory party.

    It was a pretty poor show. Nuttall is no Farage.

    If Paul Nuttall on QT is any measure, I cannot see the Kippers doing well in Wythenshaw.

    Chukka equally useless. Norman Baker dismal.

    Scouters have never been popular in Manchester!

    Baker was shocking, Chukka is a duplicitous liar, was impressed with Nadine though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    edited January 2014
    Seems my Question Time assessment was all wrong then

    Except Chuka. Sure fire thing he would be crap

    How did Fleet Street Fox get on ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Was quite impressed with @fleetstreetfox, but it was a pretty dismal BBCQT panel tonight.

    If Paul Nuttall on QT is any measure, I cannot see the Kippers doing well in Wythenshaw.

    Chukka equally useless. Norman Baker dismal.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Abbott simultaneously tipping Nick Clegg to lose Hallam and there to be a Lib-Lab coalition in 2015...
  • If Paul Nuttall on QT is any measure, I cannot see the Kippers doing well in Wythenshaw.

    Chukka equally useless. Norman Baker dismal.

    Scouters have never been popular in Manchester!

    We are popular the world over.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    RodCrosby said:

    Abbott simultaneously tipping Nick Clegg to lose Hallam and there to be a Lib-Lab coalition in 2015...

    I'll have to tune in.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    RodCrosby said:

    Abbott simultaneously tipping Nick Clegg to lose Hallam and there to be a Lib-Lab coalition in 2015...


    Does she bet ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    Miranda Green didn't exactly want to correct her though.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    Miranda Green didn't exactly want to correct her though.

    Plus, the fact lots of willing Labour activists are nearby (who will have nowhere else to campaign throughout the election since all the other Sheffield seats are safely Labour), plus the fact even a lot of non-Labour supporters will want to give Clegg a kicking (I understand the point made that some people have local pride in a politician who makes it to the top, but when they get really unpopular it can often be a reverse personal vote, especially since Clegg isn't one of "their own").

    I agree, I think it has major upset potential, although I got shouted down when I suggested that here a few weeks ago. I might break by political-bet virginity and get on a Labour win there...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    There are two schools of thought on this - one thinks that Clegg could be in trouble and the other has studied election results in the constituency since 2010.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2014
    Also, the more I see of Chuka Umunna, the less impressed I am by him. He just seems another vacuous "charismatic" Blairbot with nothing particularly interesting to say, overly-calculating every statement in order not to offend anyone in true New Labour style. I think people have got thoroughly bored of that type of politician, people now value politicians with authenticity and who come across as "in touch", rather than people with "gravitas" or a celebrity air or whatever.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited January 2014
    A man looking to his place in history and appearing to be struggling a little (but only a little) with some of his past actions:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/paisley-expresses-support-for-civil-rights-movement-1.1650266

    The interviews look like they will be very interesting.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Neil said:

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    There are two schools of thought on this - one thinks that Clegg could be in trouble and the other has studied election results in the constituency since 2010.
    Elections which have had about half the turnout it will get in 2015.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Danny565 said:

    Neil said:

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    There are two schools of thought on this - one thinks that Clegg could be in trouble and the other has studied election results in the constituency since 2010.
    Elections which have had about half the turnout it will get in 2015.
    Elections that can be compared to elections held before 2010 (when Clegg won very comfortably). But I'd be more than happy to entertain your virgin political bet if you want to back a Clegg defeat (to anybody) at evens.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Neil said:

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    There are two schools of thought on this - one thinks that Clegg could be in trouble and the other has studied election results in the constituency since 2010.
    A third school. Those who have studied election results since 1900...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    Neil said:

    If you look at Hallam you would think it would be prime territory for a LD collapse. Northern, University presence, plenty of public sector professionals. However no-one on here seems to think it's possible.

    There are two schools of thought on this - one thinks that Clegg could be in trouble and the other has studied election results in the constituency since 2010.
    A third school. Those who have studied election results since 1900...
    Dont you find that women have kindof ruined things since 1918?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    Neil - why are election results since 2010 so important? They are local council elections and usually on a very low turnout. Much of it will have to do with the internal politics of Sheffield and the reputation of the local party. A general election is a different matter.

    I still expect Clegg to win though. Bruised but not defeated.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited January 2014
    No idea, but what a breath of fresh air after being spoonfed modern 'cool' middle class socialism and feminism Owen Jones and Laurie Penny style when they both got guest slots on the BBCQT panel. Hope we see more of Fleetstreet fox, Dan Hodges and Atul Hatwal who don't preach but question the motives or direction of the Labour party to give a bit of balance to coverage of the left leaning media. We could do with a bit more than partisan Labour disciples like Maguire & Co. Tim Montgomerie & Fraser Nelson etc didn't find a niche for themselves as right wing opinion formers in the media by simple delivering a partisan on message Conservative line on the issues of the day. Just saying.....
    Pulpstar said:

    Seems my Question Time assessment was all wrong then

    Except Chuka. Sure fire thing he would be crap

    How did Fleet Street Fox get on ?

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    IA has been with the site almost from the start in 2004 and it was he who first coined the term "Our Genial Host" OGH.

    Oh! I thought it stood for "Old Grumpy Head". *Innocent face*
    Bring back SeanT! Free the Thailand One! *runs for cover*
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    What and where is the "troll/spam button/alert" thingy which was mentioned in a previous thread? I can't see/find any such thing.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    @Avery

    Mr Pole,

    how come the our cousins outremanche have got a 80% increase in money from the EIB tp spend on infrastructure - upgraded landing strips for their mistresses presumably - yet the UK which has some of the crappest infrastructure for any advanced country isn't bothering ? What is Gormless george up to or not up to more likely ? I suspect a bad case of Cableitis.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/01/09/20002-20140109ARTFIG00715-l-union-europeenne-n-a-jamais-autant-aide-l-economie-francaise.php

    EU money being used to shore up the French economy to try and stop their drift towards the rebel alliance.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Abbott simultaneously tipping Nick Clegg to lose Hallam and there to be a Lib-Lab coalition in 2015...


    Does she bet ?
    Well done on the WBA market - I didn't make anything but I had some cheap bets in the running which was fun :)
This discussion has been closed.