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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East it can give Labour a run for its money
The result from Wythenshawe & Sale E at GE2010
Looks like a LAB hold on reduced turnout but could UKUP do something? pic.twitter.com/Sfkud1U3my
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You have made a courageous, principled and judicious intervention in the tim/SeanT spat and should be congratulated. Especially as it involves a risk to the site of losing two longstanding and prominent posters which, in their own inimitable ways, have made major contributions to the special attraction and culture of PB.
I hope you are rewarded by both posters swallowing their prides and returning to the site duly chastened.
I once had an much loved and eccentric Italian as a boss. Whenever anyone claimed that an individual had an irreplaceable value, he would intervene by claiming that "the graveyards of Italy are full of indispensable bankers".
Let's all hope this is not a battle fought to the death.
However going by that very rough and totally unscientific rule then even if this seat was optimal - personally no idea on that - it would be a close Labour win but just possible it might cause a bit of fun.
Ultimately that's what's going to sink the PC narrative. Guardianistas are quite happy to ignore what happens to wwc people but when the majority of victims of the gang culture (that doesn't officially exist) are non-wwc (which they already are in inner London) then the guardianista's PC circuits will frazzle and catch fire.
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"If you read the several studies of the riots the over-riding theme that emerges is the huge resentment that had built up over many many years of police behaviour to black youth."
Hypothetical situation:
Say you had a gang culture which didn't officially exist because of PC where the gang members carried knives and guns all the time as a matter of course. There'd be bodies dropping all over the place as people got killed over little arguments.
In that situation senior plod couldn't do anything about the gang culture itself without getting their career trashed by the BBC and political class - because according to the BBC and political class that gang culture doesn't exist. However at the same time if there were bodies dropping everywhere that would trash senior plod's career also.
Catch 22.
Solution: massive amounts of stop and search to push the gang members into only carrying weapons 10% of the time and not 100%. This does nothing to the gang culture itself - in fact it makes it worse through annoying non gang members - and it does nothing to reduce the *amount* of violence but what it does do is massively reduce the *lethality* of the violence so there's less bodies. So everything on the ground gets worse year on year but the political class' big lie survives intact.
Personally i think plod should stop doing stop and search completely and let the body count go through the roof. Harsh on the extra victims in the short-term but if it forces the BBC and political class to tell the truth then there'd be less victims in the long-term.
"Demographic trends also appear to have contributed, too. Britons from a Muslim background are less likely to drink for religious and cultural reasons, and Muslims aged under 16 now make up 8% of the population of England and Wales - up from 5% in 2001."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25652991
http://content.met.police.uk/Article/History-of-Trident/1400014986671/1400014986671
Failure of communities to regulate their own youths means that the police have to get involved.
Split second decisions by armed police officers attending a scene are never going to be 100% right, but arrests of suspects thought to be carrying weapons are never going to be easy.
Gangsters are not helping their communities, they are oppressing them.
Put the stress on the "seems" - in safe seats Tories vote because it's the solidaristic thing to do. In safe Labour seats their supporters don't because they take the instrumental approach. The irony of course is that each party upholds the opposite behaviour as one of its principles.
Anyway, you'll all be getting my first guest article to-morrow (assuming OGH's tutorial on the software here has worked) so those of you who don't want it can start the bribery exercise now...
The question is who is killing off Labour MP`s.
Re By Election - I had wondered when I saw that Paul Goggins had had a stroke that he would be stepping down. Am sorry that his family now have a funeral to arrange.
It would be interesting though to test whether the kippers claim that they speak for the neglected wwc are true. Is there any data on the demographics of the seat.
Realistically if the kippers win less than 15% (bearing in mind a likely very low turnout) they will have failed. This is one of Labours rotten boroughs where a donkey could get elected with a red rosette.
It would be interesting to see how much Aldi and Lidl have increased by ...
IMHO neither Tescos or Morrisons give a very good 'experience' to their customers. But at least Mozzers (*) tries. Tescos feels as though it's given up.
(*) We have a Morrisons in our village, and an 80-year old posh woman I know always make me laugh when she calls it 'Mozzers'. "I'm just off to Mozzers".
A subtle but crucial difference, IMO.
Wythenshawe is an over spill council estate from the 1960s, the largest council estate in Europe when built.
Sale east is the Trafford side of the authority boundary and is home to several very close Labour/Tory fights in the council elections. From memory Sale Moor was actually a tie a couple of years ago.
The Sale East part of this consistency therefore has a very well organised local Labour party, covering about one third of the constituency.
As a resident of Priory in Sale East I'm less familiar with the local organisation further east over the local authority boundary in Manchester.
Sale is very much commuter belt with Metrolink trams passing through area taking workers into Manchester and is relatively prosperous (for the area).
Wythenshawe, which makes up about two thirds of the constituency, is one of the poorer parts of Manchester.
Two things of note.
After over a decade of lots of local lobbying Metrolink is currently being extended to Wythenshawe.
There are signs all over the place reminding the locals that something they've been demanding for years is being delivered with help from the European union.
HS2 will have a stop at Manchester airport, the airport is in the constituency, stop is not, it's right on the boarder with Altrincham and Sale West.
Unlike the London elite there is strong support for HS2 the area, very strong. Places like Wythenshawe holding out hope of an improved future following such investment in region.
In my opinion, just my opinion, UKIP may come second, but they'll be miles behind Labour.
On topic - a UKIP win in Wythenshawe would be good for democracy and, if the right lessons were learned, very good for Labour - complacency is a dangerous, corrosive force. As Mike says, for UKIP the challenge is to start gaining MPs.
Lib dems are being wiped out across this part of the world, their vote going to Labour.
Expect significant lib dem to Labour switching.
Welcome to the site, Mr. Kurt.
I'd say HS2 probably has more support in Yorkshire than the south as well, although it does vary quite a bit (Leeds probably very pro, other places less so). The suspicion here is that investment on transport has been promised various times before (notably with the tram system) and has been pulled at a late stage.
I saw a smidgen of the Sky paper review last night, and the lady reviewer referred to the disproportionately high number of young black men who get stopped by police. Young men have always been the most violent demographic. On the black aspect, though, I wonder if that's compared to a national average, a local average or the criminal average.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25660986
This kind of seat has tragically low turnout because those of a non-lefty persuasion 'know' Labour will win - and so even the Labour vote is low. But there were 35,000 electors who didn't vote at all. UKIP will anyway hoover up some LibLabCon votes - but not enough to win. However, if they can energise the army of 'DidNotVoters' then it could be really edge of the seat stuff.
But perhaps the most persuasive point is the idea that the constituency is more open than it might seem because it's been "taken for granted".
If UKIP really wanted it, what should they do? Immediately jump on it and swamp it with activists and leaflets?
Surely they should go full out, or not really try too hard - Getting 2nd in this particular constituency at this particular time wouldn't seem (to me) that big a deal.
Whether they will succeed in changing the Tory party into something more like them, I don't know, but if they do they will make it more rather than less electable. I find UKIP deeply unappealing almost regardless of whether I hear Farage saying anything I agree with or not.
They'd want to check local demographics first before they did anything e.g. the C2 vs DE split.
However, if the proportion of young black men being stopped is far and above any relevant measure then that needs to be made clear, and stopped. Saying 'disproportionate' doesn't offer enough information to make a judgement for the reasons I've outlined.
"They'd want to check local demographics first before they did anything e.g. the C2 vs DE split."
Thanks. You think the C2s are more of a promising target for UKIP ?
The Sale side vastly C1 with some B and C2.
Duly considered SeanT was banned for several matches and warned about his future conduct in the Thai ladies league.
Meanwhile it was thought "tim" might out himself as a West Ham supporter but it appears he might only be gay and the Hammers rumour was just a disreputable allegation spread by those who score at least five goals against them in 90 minutes.
(That's not to say there's not a feedback loop with the drug gang aspect but street gang cultures can exist independently of that e.g. Teddy Boys etc.)
edit: another example would be the Glasgow gang culture which has been going for 100+ years and nothing to do with drugs the majority of that time.
"The purples can’t go on getting good 2nd places – they need MPs"
Not quite. They need to continue momentum and publicity. An MP is a fast track to that since not even the most wide eyed kipper thinks they are going to sweep the commons with a huge number of MPs. That's not where they are and even getting an MP is no guarantee of a big GE voteshare as Galloway and the Greens know. They should still be worried because getting to 2015 without an MP will absolutely be used against the kippers by the likes of Crosby. So yes, they would dearly love and probably need a by-election victory before 2015 to really scare the crap out of the tories and labour. But given that they will still be scaring them plenty at the EU elections it's doubtful whether they are, or even can, count on getting an MP.
Secondly, and replying to your comment last night, about the law (rightly, IMO) not distinguishing whether the person who looted a can of coke had a "legitimate" grievance or not...that was not my point.
My point was that it is important to understand the motives of the rioters/looters in order to be able to address the underlying issues.
How the law treats the manifestation of that grievance is one thing. The cause of that grievance is another.
UKIP are in danger of cutting off their nose to spite their face. Indulging in People's Front of Judea ideological purity when they stand a better chance both of winning seats *and* of leaving the EU by reaching an accommodation with the Conservatives is bloody daft.
I would like to sue an eBay buyer and/or eBay.
At the end of November last year, I sold a nearly new Butterfly Labs bitcoin miner on eBay for £1,650. The device had been lightly used, and had never been opened.
At the beginning of December, the buyer got back to me and said (roughly) that it looked like the device had been opened, and that he'd like a discount to £1,000 - and in return for which, he'd give me positive feedback.
I replied that it had not been opened, but that if he wanted to return it, I would of course issue a full refund. He said, no, don't worry.
On 24 December, he changed his mind and claimed the device had been opened, and asked for his money back. I said I was happy to swear an affidavit that he had not. I also pointed out that he had had the device for the best part of a month, and therefore had got £600 of value out of it, and it was worth very substantially less than I sold it to him. (The price of bitcoin had fallen, and he had- to be honest- overpaid for the device).
He opened a case with eBay. And eBay has awarded him the money back, and asked that he return the device to me in two weeks. By the time the device is returned to me, he will have mined over £1,000 of bitcoins, and my device (when returned) will be worth perhaps £300.
I feel like I've been completely legged over. I have no doubt that he never had any intention of keeping the device, and planned to use it for a month and the simply claim it was not as described.
I am spitting mad. I have emailed eBay, but they are not even willing to enter into a dialog. They simply keep repeating the mantra 'not as described', and all the time, the guy *still* has the miner, and is *still* making £30/day in bitcoins at my expense.
What can I do?
Thanks, Robert
Should give all parties pause.
UKIP does not trust Cameron to create the circumstances that will get the UK out of the EU, not least because Cameron has said his strategy is to do the exact opposite. In opposition, the Conservative Party, reduced to overwhelmingly anti EU MPs will come out in favour of withdrawal from the EU. Economically, forming the government in 2015 will be a poison chalice for Labour, or Lab/Lib. That opens up the opportunity for a clear withdrawalist win in 2020. It is how I would play it, if I were them (if fate had dealt so cruel a blow).
On stop and search, the problem is that it's too random. Nobody sensible objects to a suspicious character being stopped, but the experience of urban life is that if you're a young black male you get stopped all the time (as often as once a week) even if you're eminently respectable-looking and just going about your business. This also applies to a lesser extent to urban young male whites.
Being a young male is seen as somewhat suspicious in itself, so that you get mildly hassled and 'moved on' even if you're just standing and chatting, and that does build up resentment towards the police, since there isn't a lot you can do about being a young bloke, and at that age you're more inclined to dislike being pushed around anyway. In a small way, we've seen the same scenario with drivers: people who really liked the police went right off them when they had their first encounter with a speed camera. Being an urban copper is difficult, but it's important for politicians to understand the problems on both sides.
Whoosh ! That's the sound of this post going way over my head!
What I am trying to say is that the family are entitled to protest even if they genuinely believe that the Jamaican police would have behaved in just the same way in the same circumstances - dear or dear, if no one were allowed to make exceptions in favour of themselves there wouldn't be much politics left.
I am normally an incredibly relaxed guy, but I am currently spitting mad.
Wish I could offer you some advice, but I haven't bought anything on eBay for ages. Hopefully one of the legal eagles will be able to help you out. It does sound like an indefensible case, given the e-mail exchange.
There are no degrees of leaving the EU. Either you do or you do not. From that perspective having a Labour leader who will not support leaving the EU is no different from having a Try leader who has said he will never take Britain out of the EU.
The best hope for UKIP is that the Tories lose and then elect a leader who is willing to countenance an EU exit. There is of course no guarantee that this would happen but it is still better odds than us leaving under Cameron.
I'm sorry to hear of your problem. It will be of no help to you whatsoever to know that for me this is part and parcel of bitcoin. It is a new "currency" but without the safeguards of national currencies.
That money can be mined is itself a strange and new concept and my feeling is that it is a caveat emptor situation when such new concepts are concerned.
As to the opened/unopened issue, which is the heart of the matter, then I don't understand how the device could have been "lightly used" but "never been opened". If that is resolved then I think the rest falls into place albeit not necessarily in your favour.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogecoin
(An attempt to lighten the mood since I fear eBay will give you little solace.)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/9111991/labours-immigration-nightmares/
"One former Labour adviser, deeply unimpressed by this ‘wholly strategic’ approach, believes his boss will not be able to keep up the pretence. ‘He will get found out in the end,’ he says. ‘The Labour party has got nothing to say on the big issues: it talks about cost of living to mask that. What question is Ed Miliband the answer to? I seriously don’t know."
I grow tired of the 'We don't trust Cameron' line. Even if you don't trust him, you can trust his backbenchers to commit regicide if there's a manifesto promise for a referendum and he doesn't deliver. You've got one chap and his party saying there should be a referendum, which is what you want, and two chaps and their parties that are almost entirely (a few Labour backbenchers aside) committed to ever more EU integration.
Maintaining ideological purity and the luxury of opposition might make UKIP feel all rebellious and cool (no way we're dealing with The Establishment!) but if you actually want to effect a change then the best way to do that is to either cut a party-wide deal with the blues, or do so on a case-by-case basis so you don't end up costing sceptical MPs their seats.
I think some UKIP supporters have moved from wanting to leave as their primary motivation to wanting to kick the big three parties or promote UKIP itself.
Mr. Topping, whilst I don't know about the lightly used issue, it sounds like buying a box of chocolate for £10, eating three-quarters of them and then getting the full £10 refund.
"United say the new loan would have an estimated starting interest rate of around 2.78% and that interest payments should come down from around £31m to £21m per year."
That's the small matter of £50 million less than the figure quoted by you!
Plus, what makes you think that replacing Moyes at a cost of almost £30 million would actually improve Man Utd's chances of qualifying for the Champions League? Such a move might actually reduce their chances.
Instead of caveat emptor it has to be let the seller beware. An antiquarian bookshop owner that I know will only ship goods on receipt of the money, usually via Paypal. She got caught out like you and never received the goods back.
She found eBay just useless as they want to protect their reputation regarding buyers.
As you had a useful product, you should have adopted the same policy. I do not know all the T&Cs of eBay and do not know of any cases or case law regarding similar problems, but I guess that going to court could cost you more money than you have lost already. Is it possible to prove that the 'buyer' has used this device fraudulently - if so then that could be construed as theft by discovery or theft by intent and so would become a criminal matter but would the police be interested in such a difficult case. Is the 'buyer' UK based as if not in the UK, such action could be nigh hopeless. Lastly the 'buyer' could be a member of a criminal gang who has a track record in this line of business but who could be untraceable.
I also suspect an official letter from your lawyer stating your intent to start legal proceedings will jolt ebay as they have a history of doing whatever is the least hassle for themselves in terms of getting issues resolved and off their books. If this looks like it will not go away then I believe they will become more responsive.
It might be worth kicking up a fuss on the ebay discussion boards. After being ripped off by a bloke in Italy over some motorcycle forks and raging on the forum, that's the only time someone on ebay actually offered to speak to me directly (though I'd more or less given up the will to live by that point).
Optimistic....
If the notion is that UKIP should start focussing ruthlessly on a few constituencies and let the rest hang then that's the same blind strategic alley the Lib Dems have driven up and where's it got them? Six decades of intensive campaigning, five years in government delivering very little from their own manifesto and now back to single figures and fourth place in the polls, and staring down the barrel of their most losses at a general election in more than eighty years. The Lib Dems aspire to government yet write off more than 80% of constituencies; they seek an electoral coalition based on 'not being the others' but by definition can only enter government with one of the others, so then undermining their own voter base. Why should UKIP go down the same route?
It's true that UKIP won far fewer council seats in 2013 than the Lib Dems and their vote was far less efficiently distributed on that particular vote share. However, it's also true that in many of the seats they did win, they did so because of the national profile, not local work. Intensive local work is *not* the only route to a breakthrough.
The question is whether UKIP can advance from where they are now and that's where winning a seat would make a big difference. Looking like a credible party (in terms of whether they can win; let's leave policies aside for now), makes a big difference in attracting votes. A parliamentary win in February or March would significantly boost their chances further of winning the Euros in May (and winning more council seats too), and that's where the momentum then really matters.
It's true that a UKIP national vote share at a general election of 15% would deliver at best a handful of seats due to their vote being fairly evenly distributed (cf the Lib Dems, who'd still have top-side of 40 on that score). However, increase that to 20%, 25% or 30% and the picture suddenly starts to look very different. Question is, can they go that far?
IA has been with the site almost from the start in 2004 and it was he who first coined the term "Our Genial Host" OGH.
He played a big part during PB's early days an I'm really pleased that he's accepted my invitation.
Or would has any resident pb solicitor (Sean_F, LIAMT or any other) like to consider taking my case on?
I'm on the Wythenshawe side of this constituency, where the LD activity and support has collapsed since 2011 and I'd imagine they will go sub 10%. Most of their vote will go Labour or stay at home.
It will be interesting to see how the Tories do given their need to keep a hold of Trafford Council - I imagine they will put in a bit of effort on the Sale East side. The Cons are probably best playing up their support for HS2 and Airport City and hoping that's enough.
I can't see UKIP doing well here. There is some immigration but it is at a low level and mainly Eastern European - certainly I'm not aware of any tension. Other than that UKIP don't have any hooks to use and their opposition to HS2 will probably play badly.
I am no sort of apologist for UKIP strategy, but I believe their leadership is right to recognise that it will be difficult to secure an OUT vote in a referendum if two of the main parties in Parliament are united in favour of IN and the Conservative Party, though split, has a pro IN leadership. A NO vote will be much easier to secure if the governing party is united in its favour, having won an election against a background of severe economic crisis.
You leave the EU by winning the referendum Cameron has promised in 2017. Its that simple.
The UKIP plan seems to be to loose the opportunity to have a 2017 referendum in the hope that at some future point (2022, 2027...) there may be another referendum even though the euro crisis is probably the bast backdrop to have a referendum in.